Energy Outlook

Sep 30, 2013

ENERGY

MARKET ROUNDUP
Crude oil fell for a sixth session out of seven on Friday as a U.S.-Russia deal to remove chemical weapons from Syria and talks on resolving tensions over Iran's nuclear plans helped ease fears over Middle East supply risks.

NYMEX & MCX CRUDE

Energy MCX Crude (Rs.) MCX Crude (Rs.) NYMEX Crude($) NYMEX Crude($) Contract OCT3 NOV3 NOV3 DEC3 Open 6397 6410 102.46 102.05 High 6582 6597 102.54 102.05 Low 6370 6388 101.45 100.95 Close 6533 6550 101.56 101.07 Change 131.00 130.00 -1.31 -1.27 % Change 2.05 2.02 -1.27 -1.24

ICE BRENT CRUDE

Energy ICE Brent ($) ICE Brent ($) ICE Brent ($) Contract NOV3 DEC3 JAN4 Open 108.20 107.43 106.18 High 108.39 107.43 106.18 Low 107.66 106.75 105.84 Close 107.76 106.84 105.97 Change -0.87 -0.86 -0.81 % Change -0.80 -0.80 -0.76

IN FOCUS
Oil production in North Dakota, home to the giant Bakken shale formation, may double to 1.6 million barrels a day by mid2017, a state official said in remarks shown on video at a meeting on Thursday and received by Reuters on Friday. Statoil's STL.OL announcement this week of a major oil find off Canada's Atlantic coast offers a refreshing reminder that new technology and high prices are helping uncover new oil supplies far beyond U.S. shale and the Alberta oil sands. Mexican state oil monopoly Pemex said on Friday it produced 2.514 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in August, up 1.3 percent from July when output hit a near 18-year low.

NYMEX GASOLINE
Energy Gasoline ($) Gasoline ($) Gasoline ($) Contract OCT3 DEC3 DEC3 Open 2.66 2.65 2.63 High 2.66 2.65 2.63 Low 2.66 2.64 2.62 Close 2.66 2.64 2.62 Change -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 % Change -0.77 -0.83 -0.76

NYMEX HEATING OIL

Energy Heating Oil ($) Heating Oil ($) Heating Oil ($) Contract OCT3 NOV3 DEC3 Open 2.98 2.98 2.97 High 2.98 2.98 2.98 Low 2.97 2.97 2.96 Close 2.97 2.97 2.96 Change -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 % Change -0.57 -0.58 -0.57

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is trading lower on NYMEX today. We expect prices to trade lower for the day as tensions over Iran eased and as a potential U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook for demand.

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Energy Sep 30, 2013

MCX Natural Gas

Energy Nat Gas (Rs.) Nat Gas (Rs.) Nat Gas (Rs.) Contract OCT3 NOV3 DEC3 Open 222.40 235.50 240.00 High 228.50 241.20 248.50 Low 222.10 234.30 240.00 Close 227.50 240.30 248.00 Change 6.40 6.90 7.90 % Change 2.89 2.96 3.29

MARKET ROUNDUP
Natural gas ended higher on Friday in choppy trade, with technical buying and short covering ahead of the weekend outweighing pressure from forecasts for moderate U.S. weather the next two weeks, which should slow usage.

NYMEX Natural Gas

Energy Nat Gas ($) Nat Gas ($) Nat Gas ($) Contract NOV3 DEC3 JAN4 Open 3.58 3.76 3.85 High 3.58 3.76 3.87 Low 3.54 3.72 3.82 Close 3.56 3.74 3.84 Change -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 % Change -0.92 -0.90 -0.83

IN FOCUS
The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell this week for the second week in a row, dropping by 10 to 376, data from Houston-based Baker Hughes showed on Friday. Money managers, including hedge funds and commodity trading advisers, trimmed their net long positions in natural gas futures, options and swaps in the week to Sept. 24, the first reduction in six weeks, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. Argentina has called for tenders to acquire 50 cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for delivery in 2014 and 2015, a Buenos Airesbased industry source with direct knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Thursday.

INDICES

Index Clear Tanker Index Dirty Tanker Index

Close 3.00 -1.00

Change 0.56 -0.17

Exchange MCX NCDEX

Volume (in crores) 292.08 2177.52

EXCHANGE VOLUME ENERGY INDICATORS

Date 25Sep 25Sep 25Sep 25Sep 25Sep 25Sep Time 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm Energy Data Crude Stock Gasoline Stock Distillate Stock Refinery Utilisation Stocks at Cushing Oklahoma Natural Gas Inventory Country U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. Prior -4.368 -1.627 -1.079 0.0 -0.861 46 76 Consensus -1.129 0.143 -0.593 Actual 2.635 0.217 -0.234 -2.200 -0.412 87

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Natural gas is trading marginally higher on NYMEX today. We expect prices to remain under pressure on account of expectations of mild weather in the US in coming weeks.

Energy Outlook

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Energy Outlook
Energy Sep 30, 2013

RESEARCH TEAM Name Kunal Shah Vikash Bairoliya Sunit Mehta Somya Dixit Ankita Parekh Ravi Dsouza Devidas Rajadhikary Harshal Mehta Mohammed Azeem Sakina Mandsaurwala Ishwar Kelwadkar Designation Research Head Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Associate Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst E-mail kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com vikash.bairoliya@nirmalbang.com sunit.mehta@nirmalbang.com somya.dixit@nirmalbang.com ankita.parekh@nirmalbang.com ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com mohammed.gaziani@nirmalbang.com

ADVISORY TEAM Commodity Advisor sakina.mandsaurwala@nirmalbang.com Commodity Advisor ishwar.kelwadkar@nirmalbang.com

Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by N.B. Commodity Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on N.B. Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents N.B. Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. N.B. Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated herein. N.B. Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. N.B. Commodities Research, its affiliates and their employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. N.B. Commodities Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. Address: Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd., B2, 301 / 302, 3rd Floor, Marathon Innova, Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai - 400 013, India

Energy Outlook

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