Research Proposal (Initial Proposal Prior to Review) Student Name: Date: 4/09/2012 Supervisor: Dr.

Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg Marissa Adraincem

Research Topic: CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE IMPACTS OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Research Objectives This research aims to provide assessment and evaluation of how climate change in the Philippines can have negative impacts of the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. Research Problems - Increase in greenhouse gases cause climate change that brought about increase in planet temperature, increase in evaporation, precipitation changes and rising sea level. Philippines location resulted in its vulnerability of the negative impact of climate change. Hydroelectric power generation is affected by climate change in relation to change in temperature and precipitation. El Nino phenomenon contributed to hydroelectric power generation problems in Mindanao, Philippines. Hydroelectric Power supply in Mindanao, Philippines is affected with the effects of climate change in the country. Other factors involved in the Hydropower shortage problems in Mindanao, Philippines that are not connected with climate change.

Research Questions - What are the climate parameters that have significant change that were brought about in the increase of greenhouse gases? What are the climate variability that resulted in the change of climate in the Philippines What is the relationship in rising temperature and precipitation change due the climate change in the Philippines with Hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. What is the effect of El Nino phenomenon with Hydroelectric Power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. What other factors aside from climate change and El Nino that can be considered as involved in the Power shortage supply in Mindanao, Philippines

Research Approach - Secondary data source can be used to allow the translation of climatic variables into estimates of river flow. This will enable to show the relationship between climate variables and hydropower generation performance. A model can be developed in order to quantify the relationship between changing climate and hydroelectric power generation viability. All variables can be quantified; therefore, quantitative methodology will be used. Based on the quantitative methodology, this research will be appropriately used the Correlational Research Method. Since, this will examine the co-variation of two or more variables such as temperature and precipitation change in relation with hydropower generation performance.

Research Topic: CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE IMPACTS ON HYDROELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

1.0 Research Topic and Type of Research

This research problem is about the occurrence of climate change in the Philippines and its connections with the present hydroelectric power supply problems particularly in Mindanao Island. In this case, the research topic which can be classified as an engineering research

originates from the research problem. The research problem can be described by both the climate change and electric power shortages in the Philippines (Stapelberg, Lecture Notes). The research topic was identified upon a reflection on its practicality and usefulness in undertaking the study in which climate change as the source of the problem and the central idea to explore. Definite reason for the selection of this topic aside that it will be an interesting choice, power supply as an opinion have pronounced impact on the economic, social, environmental and way of life of ordinary Filipino people. This research problem is a current issue and a personal concern that requires to be addressed. The choice of topic also comes from the researchers personal work and life experiences. The research topic was elevated to a research study as upon reflection the topic was deemed researchable. This means that the topic can be and should be researched. It can be researched for the reason that the researcher has the access of resources at some key points in order to collect related data for definite period of time and means to analyse this collection of data. As of the case that this should be researched, there is the support from the lecturer regarding this matter upon consultation (Creswell 2003). This topic started as a curiosity questioning Philippine Government officials statements that power shortages is associated with climate change and it became a critical factor for this research. Since this will help generate ideas and will sustain researchers future effort. This idea is primarily generated with long exposure with cable news network and also the experiences of the inconvenience as well as the negative effect of regular power interruption. In this case, research idea was stemmed from unsystematic intuitions of what is the link of climate change with power supply in the Philippines, on this perspective the research can be

characterised of exploratory research (Graziano & Raulin, 2004). In another view, this research can be considered as part Exploratory Research when it will attempt to determine whether or not a phenomenon exists. In which in this case if there is a climate change occurring in the Philippines and if it has the sustainable impact to the electric power supply (Dane, 1990). The research also can be explorative since the topic is meant to find out if this phenomena is happening, will attempt to pursue new insights, analyse the phenomena in a different light aside from asking series of question regarding this topic (Saunders, Lewis & Thornhill, 2000). From the perspective that the research is being descriptive, this involves by analysing the Climate Change and Power situation in the Philippines to a more defined study and to distinguish this to other related phenomena particularly in the Southeast Asia nations (Dane, 1990). The objective of a descriptive research is to present an accurate picture of persons or phenomena. There is the importance to portray a clear picture of the situation. In this perspective after the collection of interesting data, there should be the development of the researchers skill in evaluating this data and to synthesise the generated ideas. Furthermore, after all the descriptive research work done, conclusions and recommendations can be drawn based on the data (Saunders, Lewis & Thornhill, 2000). In another perspective in this research as an explanatory research, it basically answers the question of what, how and why. This will involve in the examination of a cause-effect between two phenomena the Climate Change and Power Shortages in the Philippines. This research will determine if the explanation is valid or other explanation is more valid (Dane, 1990). From other point of view, the study will establish a relationship between two

variables which are the Climate and Power Supply in the Philippines. As an explanatory study, there is the emphasis of researching the situation in order to explain the relationships between the two said variables (Saunders, Lewis & Thornhill, 2000). Based on the definition of an Evaluation Research in which the study will explore the effectiveness of a certain product, process or a program, the research topic is not applicable on this type of research. For the reason that there is no product or a program involve. And on the other hand the researchers will not have the resources to test any specific processes (Slides Part 2). As a result of careful analysis of all types of research, the study will be conducted in an explanatory approach. For the same reason, that in an explanatory research it will answer the

research question of what, how and why.

Furthermore, upon critically evaluating the

research topic, it is accepted that it is reasonable and worthwhile. Therefore, it is not a waste of time and effort in the side of the researcher. In addition, in order to understand in depth what really is happening to the country in terms of its economic, social, environmental and any change of way of life as the relevant factors for the research.

2.0 Preliminary Literature Review

After the identification of the research topic, the researcher should take into consideration what literature to be used in a study. The Preliminary Literature Review in a research has numerous purposes. One of this is to share other related studies and relates to the bigger picture in the literature aside from filling in gaps and extending the research from previous studies. Furthermore, it will also give importance of the research and will provide a standard of comparison from other findings. In addition to this, the review will provide the framework or foundation of the research (Creswell, 2003). Climate Change There is that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of the Earth shown by physicists who specialised in atmospheric science. This phenomenon will raise the

temperature of the whole planet at times, rates and certain places that contributes consistently the ongoing climate change. Human health and habitation and local economies will be affected by the unfolding impacts of this phenomenon. The article accepts the existence of climate change and recent observations of certain places that has ongoing climate change. It also has a strong belief that the public question the existence of climate change and its willingness to act regarding this problem (Schlesinger, 2011). Climate sensitivity is still under investigation. Climate scientists are in agreement that there is a warming of the earths atmosphere and going to a situation that can be considered as worst case scenarios. At the end of this century, sea levels will definitely rise, wide spread drought and man as well as animals will be driven from their natural habitat. If the change will continue the future generation will inherit an atmosphere that is out of control and cannot be reversed. Nevertheless, scientists and engineers have several solutions regarding this

problem which can be done. However, the action should be implemented now (Roberts, 2012). Climate Change in the Philippines The Philippines is located along the Pacific Ring of Fire and the Pacific typhoon belt. It is considered as the worlds most natural disaster prone area in terms of typhoons, floods, landslides, droughts, volcano eruption and earthquakes. The most effect of climate change in the country is linked to extreme weather disturbance like typhoons and floods in turn affect mostly the economic life of most of its population. The leading impacts of this phenomenon will result of climate variability such as rising temperature, precipitation changes, and increase in sea level, extreme weather events and the availability of water. Though, this article reports that the Philippines is a minor emitter of greenhouse gases compared to other highly industrial countries but on the other hand, the country is in the situation that it is highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change (Rincon & Virtucio, 2008). Climate Change and Electric Power Energy The report evaluates the connections between changing disaster risks owing to climate change and the effects on power electric generation. Power electric generation is vital for powering economic development. Climate change modifies disaster risks for power generation. All of these considerations are usually ignored in power research and policy. In this article, it considers the susceptibility of numerous power generations like fossil fuels, nuclear power, hydropower and renewable energy. Lastly, the report picture out how

changing climates could be taken into consideration in power generation (Urban & Mitchell, 2010). Climate change and forecasted growing power problems in the future owing to the reduction of fossil fuels, will yield various results in agriculture, fisheries and maintenance of infrastructure. One of these effects will be depend on location, altitude and ecology. Several of these effects will be connected in intricate ways. In this article, we outline the main kinds of effects projected for areas in Southeast Asian nations and in the Philippines. It also consists of the problem of unavoidable power price increases. Subsequently, the article provides measures for the future crises in climate and energy (Lang & Chow, 2010).

Electric Power Profile in the Philippines

The Philippines has power electricity generating capacity of 15.1 gigawatts (GW). The country generated 53.1 billion kilowatt-hours (Bkwh) of electricity in 2004, while consuming 49.4 Bkwh. Conventional thermal sources make up the major share of Philippine power supply. On the other hand, the Philippines is also the worlds second-largest producer of geothermal energy. Hydroelectric power sources made up 2,900 megawatts of the Philippines electricity generation capacity or 19 percent of the total, in 2004. The country has not seen a substantial expansion in hydroelectric capacity though fresh developments are presently being established, mostly small-scale hydroelectric plants (Clough, 2008).

The Philippine electric power industry is composed into three main divisions which are generation, transmission and distribution. Under the current power industry structure, National Power Corporation generates its own electricity and buys electricity from Independent Power Players. Generation was a monopoly of the National Power Corporation until the issuance of Executive Order No. 215, which opened the energy generation sector to private sector.

Today, a few of private investors generate and sell electricity to National Power Corporation and other consumers. National Power Corporation transfers electricity to distributors and big industrial consumers through high-voltage cables. National Power Corporation is also responsible for building the transmission grid highway interlocking the three main islands nationwide. Distribution of electricity at its usable voltage to end customer is achieved by investor-owned utilities, government-owned electric utilities and many electric cooperatives which sell to homes in addition to commercial and industrial consumers (DOE, 2005). The stability and reliability of electric power supply is a challenge in the power industry in 2010. In spite of the natural disasters and the adverse impact of climate change, the performance of the power sector had developed. Mindanao hugely underwent the worst of the power shortage brought by El Nio Phenomenon as 50 percent of its electricity requirement mostly sourced from hydroelectric power facilities. Electric supply in this area was inadequate as water level in lakes and rivers all over the grid constantly below critical level (DOE, 2010).

Climate Change and Electric Power Supply

Climate change inclines to adversely affect the power industry by causing cooling problems in power plants and damaging the water supply essential for hydroelectric power generation. In the near future, when global warming is forecasted to have a surge the adaptation to climate change by using international electricity supplies of power generation but this is not enough to prevent supply interruption. This article determines the changes in power supply patterns and power prices instigated by climate change in addition to redeployment of wealth associated for different climate changes (Rbbelke &Vgele, 2011).

Climate Change and Hydroelectric Power Hydroelectric power embodies 20% of the worlds power supply is considered as both susceptible to global warming and an asset to reduce greenhouse gasses. Assumed the speed of global warming, and its expected effects to natural and human habitat, future long-term hydropower operation will be ill prepared to acclimatize if science-based approaches reasonable studies are not involved (Viers, 2011). The use of hydroelectric power is a main strategy to minimise the impact of climate change on the other hand climate change will also change the accessibility of resources that will affect the viability of kind of power generation. There is the relationship between climate change and the technical and financial viabilities of hydroelectric power development. This study shows that there will be significant reductions of river flows, decreasing power production and therefore decline in electricity sales (Harisson & Whittington, 2002). Hydroelectric power generation is affected by climate and climate change. Drought and heavy rainfall can vary hydroelectric power production. This study shows the impact of global warming on water resources in terms of increase evaporation and precipitation (Munoz & Sailor, 1998). 2.1 Gap Analysis Increase in planet temperature due to the rising concentration of greenhouse gases. Sea level will definitely rise. Most effects of Climate Change in the Philippines is linked to extreme weather disturbance. Philippines is a minor emitter of greenhouse gases.

Philippines is in a situation that is highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Leading impacts of Climate Change in the Philippines will result of climate variability such as rising temperature, precipitation changes and rising sea level. Hydroelectric power is susceptible to global warming. Power shortage in Mindanao, Philippines was brought by El Nino phenomenon mostly sourced from hydroelectric power. Rising temperature will result with increase in evaporation and precipitation changes due to climate change will have an adverse impact on hydroelectric power generation.

2.2 Research Problems Increase in greenhouse gases cause climate change that brought about increase in planet temperature, increase in evaporation, precipitation changes and rising sea level. Philippines location resulted in its vulnerability of the negative impact of climate change. Hydroelectric power generation is affected by climate change in relation to change in temperature and precipitation. El Nino phenomenon contributed to hydroelectric power generation problems in Mindanao, Philippines. Hydroelectric Power supply in Mindanao, Philippines is affected with the effects of climate change in the country. Other factors involved in the Hydropower shortage problems in Mindanao, Philippines that are not connected with climate change.

3.0 Research Questions What are the climate parameters that have significant change that were brought about in the increase of greenhouse gases? What are the climate variability that resulted in the change of climate in the Philippines What is the relationship in rising temperature and precipitation change due the climate change in the Philippines with Hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines.

What is the effect of El Nino phenomenon with Hydroelectric Power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. What other factors aside from climate change and El Nino that can be considered as involved in the Power shortage supply in Mindanao, Philippines.

4.0 Research Objectives This research project aims to provide an assessment and evaluation of how climate change in the Philippines can impact negatively the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines.

5.0 HYPOTHESES Climate Change in the Philippines affects the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. This type of hypothesis is a relational hypothesis since it will state the relationships between variables. The variables involved in climate change are the temperature and precipitation. Other variables are the temperature and precipitation change brought about by the El Nino phenomenon. An increase in temperature will increase evaporation; this will affect the water resources required in hydroelectric generation. Decrease in precipitation will also affect water slow therefore will affect also power supply in hydroelectric facilities. Hypotheses can be tested qualitatively because variables such as temperature and precipitation can be measured. Hydroelectric power output can also be quantified. Therefore this all can be tested quantitatively. 6.0 Methodology The capacity of the natural water resources used in Mindanao, Philippines in hydroelectric power generation can be assessed against projected climate change and variability. This required the definition of the water source and the hydroelectric facilities. definition, water resource model can be used to simulate hydrological systems. After the

Secondary data source can be used to allow the translation of climatic variables into estimates of river flow. This will enable to show the relationship between climate variables and hydropower generation performance. A model can be developed in order to quantify the relationship between changing climate and hydroelectric power generation viability.

7.0 Research Methods This research will be appropriately used the Correlational Research Method. Since, this will examine the co-variation of two or more variables such as temperature and precipitation change in relation with hydropower generation performance. Collections of empirical data can be analysed and simulated to develop a model. A model can described and will enable to evaluate the relationship between the changes in climate and the hydroelectric power performance.

REFERENCES
Creswell, J 2003, Research Design Qualitative, Quantitative and Mixed Methods Approaches , 2nd edn, Sage Publication, Inc., Thousand Oaks. Department of Energy 2005, The Philippine Electric Power Industry, p. 1 Department of Energy 2010, 2010 Philippine Power Sector Situtationer, pp. 1-17 Harrison, G & Whittington, H 2002, Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change, Journal of Hydrology, vol. 264, pp. 230-241, (online Elsevier). Lang, G & Chow, J 2010, Climate change, energy, and rural livelihoods: planning for resilience, 4th Asian Rural Sociology Association International Conference, pp. 1-29, (online EbsCohost). Munoz J & Sailor, D 1998, A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation, Energy Convers, Mgmt., vol. 39, n0. 14, pp. 1459-1469, (online EbsCohost). Rincon, M & Virtucio, F 2008, Climate change in the Philippines: A contribution to the country environmental analysis. Roberts, D 2012, Climate Change is already happening, Popular Science, pp. 44-45, (online EbsCohost). Rubbelke, D & Vogele, S 2011, Distributional Consequences of climate change impacts on the power sector. Saunders, M, Lewis, P & Thronhill, A 2000, Research Methods for Business Students, 2nd edn, Pearson Education, Ltd., Harlow. Schlesinger, W 2011, Climate Change, Interpretation, vol. 65, no. 4, p 378, (online ProQuest Central). Urban, F & Mitchell, T 2010, Climate Change, disasters and electricity generation, pp 1-35, (online EbsCohost). Viers, J 2011, Hydroelectric relicensing and climate change, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 47. No. 4, pp. 655-662, (online EbsCohost).