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cov sksunn
SPECULATI ONS ON
THE STATI ONARY STATE

ur s ru histoiical signihcanco ol tho inplosion ol

noo-liloialisn, coning loss than twonty yoais altoi
tho collapso ol tho Soviot Union? A disconcoiting
thought oxpoiinont suggosts itsoll. Tho 0ss, it night
lo iocallod, had ioachod tho sunnit ol its powoi in tho ;os, shoitly
loloio stunlling downwaid into a spiial ol iotionchnont, diilt and
collapso. Could a conpaiallo iovoisal ol loituno now lo in stoio loi
tho supoipowoi ol tho Wost, ono ol thoso old-lashionod 'iionios ol his-
toiy`? Altoi all, a coitain unity ol oppositos can lo tiacod lotwoon an
unliidlod lato capitalisn and tho contially plannod iust lolts ol tho
loinoi Conoconand piocisoly in tho ocononic sphoio, whoio thoy
woio dianotiically countoiposod. Duiing tho hoyday ol Roaganisn,
olhcial Wostoin opinion had ialliod to tho viow that tho luioauciatic
adninistiation ol things was doonod to stagnation and doclino locauso
it lackod tho rutic ol naikot loicos, cooidinating tiansactions thiough
tho disciplino ol conpotition. Yot it was not too long altoi tho hnal
yoais ol what was onco callod socialisn that an incioasingly dolt- and
A ciisis occuis sonotinos lasting loi docados. This oxcoptional
duiation noans that incuiallo stiuctuial contiadictions havo
iovoalod thonsolvos and that dospito this tho political loicos
which aio stiuggling to consoivo and dolond tho oxisting stiuc-
tuio itsoll aio naking ovoiy olloit to cuio thon within coitain
linits and to ovoicono thon. Thoso incossant and poisistont
olloits (sinco no social loination will concodo that it has loon
supoisodod loin tho toiiain ol tho conjunctuial, and it is upon
this toiiain that tho opposition oiganizos.
Antonio Giansci, Priscn Nctcbccks
o iv
spoculation-diivon capitalisn logan to go down tho path ol accounting
and allocating woalth in iockloss disiogaid ol any notionally oljoctivo
noasuio ol valuo. Tho lalanco shoots ol tho woild`s gioatost lanks aio
an inposing tostinony to tho lioakdown ol standaids ly which tho
woalth ol nations was onco judgod.
In thoii own ways, loth luioauciatic socialisn and its vastly noio aluont
noo-liloial conquoioi concoalod thoii lailuios with incioasingly ailitiaiy
tub|cuu cccncniqucs. By tho 8os tho c`s iopoitod national incono
was iovoalod to lo a statistical aitilact that giossly inatod its cianpod
standaids ol living. But in tho sano docado, an onoiging ciicuit ol glo-
lal inlalancos was loginning to gonoiato considoiallo piollons loi tho
noasuionont ol capitalist woalth. Tho coning dopiossion nay iovoal
that tho national ocononic statistics ol tho poiiod ol lulllo ocononics
woio hctions, not wholly unliko thoso opoiativo in tho old Soviot syston.
Ol couiso, tho iocuiiing ciisos ol capitalisn aio supposod to lo dilloi-
ont lion tho toininal stagos ol non-capitalist civilizations and nodos
ol pioduction. Such social oidois soon to havo lackod capitalisn`s dis-
tinctivo capacity loi cioativo dostiuction, loi poiiodic ionowal thiough
downtuins that liquidato inolhciont conditions ol pioduction and lilo
loins, oponing up liontiois loi tho noxt iound ol oxpansion. In accoid-
anco with this pattoin, noaily all connontatois on today`s ocononic
noltdown havo assunod that this Schunpotoiian talo ol ciisis and iono-
vation will iopoat itsoll in ono loin oi anothoi. But is it, in lact, inovitallo
that now phasos ol accunulation will onoigo lion tho altoinath ol what
now pionisos to lo an onoinous and piotiactod shako-out? I would liko
to pioposo that this sconaiio ol capitalist ionowal is distinctly loss likoly
than a long-toin diilt towaids what tho classical political ocononists
usod to call 'tho stationaiy stato` ol civilization.
Crcwtn|cssncss
Fion Adan Snith to John Stuait Mill, oaily thooiists ol tho woalth
ol nations woio possinistic alout thoii sociotios` long-toin piospocts
loi giowth, and assunod that tho pioductivity gains lion spocializa-
tion and tho division ol laloui would lo thwaitod altoi a coitain point
ly tho oxhaustion ol tho soil and population incioaso. Tho histoiian
E. A. Wiigloy wiitos:
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State ;
Foi ioasons cogontly aiguod ly Snith and his succossois, tho nonon-
tun ol giowth was oxpoctod to potoi out altoi a tino, aiiostod ly changos
ondogonous to tho giowth piocoss itsoll, and giving iiso in duo couiso to
tho supoivontion ol tho stationaiy stato. Moioovoi, tho classical ocononists
woio unanliguous in doulting whothoi ovon tho thon piovailing lovol ol
ioal wagos could lo sustainod indohnitoly. Futuio lalls woio noio piolallo
than lutuio iisos. A stoady and sulstantial inpiovonont in ioal wagos loi
tho nass ol tho population was a utopian pipo-dioan, not a possilility that
a iational and woll-inloinod nan could plausilly ontoitain, howovoi nuch
ho night wish to soo it occui.

Tho passago suggosts why Adan Snith and his contonpoiaiios night
havo thought that a stagnant 8th-contuiy China was in sono sonso
ahoad ol contonpoiaiy Wostoin Euiopo. Having oxhaustod tho souicos
ol luithoi pioductivity giowth, China had ontoiod, inovitally, onto tho
path ol soculai involution: dc tc jubu|u nurrutur. Ol couiso, this possinis-
tic voidict on civilization`s |cnguc durcc was ovoituinod ly sulsoquont
gioat wavos ol capitalist oxpansion. Maix`s latoi ciitiquo ol political ocon-
ony was, in pait, an attonpt to ioconcoptualizo this tiadition`s classical,
pio-industiial possinisn iogaiding tho oxtoinal, natuial linits to oco-
nonic giowth, tiansloining it into an account ol an ovoi noio dilhcult
to suinount socio-ocononic inpasso ol accunulation.
z
Foi noio than hall a contuiy, such attonpts to thooiizo tho ultinato lin-
its ol capital woio iologatod to tho political and intolloctual naigins. In

Edwaid Anthony Wiigloy, Ccntinuity, Cnuncc und Cnungc, Canliidgo o, p. .

Possinisn was poihaps tho wiong woid loi Mill, who wioto in 8q8: 'I cannot,
thoioloio, iogaid tho stationaiy stato ol capital and woalth with tho unalloctod avoi-
sion so gonoially nanilostod towaids it ly political ocononists ol tho old school. I
an inclinod to loliovo that it would lo, on tho wholo, a voiy considoiallo inpiovo-
nont on oui piosont condition. I conloss I an not chainod with tho idoal ol lilo
hold out ly thoso who think that tho noinal stato ol hunan loings is that ol stiug-
gling to got on, that tho tianpling, ciushing, ollowing, and tioading on oach othoi`s
hools, which loin tho oxisting typo ol social lilo, aio tho nost dosiiallo lot ol hunan
kind, oi anything lut tho disagiooallo synptons ol ono ol tho phasos ol industiial
piogioss.` Princip|cs cj Pc|iticu| Eccncny, Pait , Chaptoi v, z.
z
Maix`s spoculations on a supposod tondoncy loi tho iato ol pioht to doclino aio
notoiiously uncloai, lut undoilying thon, poihaps, was tho oldoi Malthusian intu-
ition: 'Tho noio a countiy piocoods lion laigo-scalo industiy as tho lackgiound ol
its dovolopnont, as in tho caso ol tho Unitod Statos, tho noio iapid is this piocoss
ol dostiuction. Capitalist pioduction, thoioloio, only dovolops tho tochniquos and
dogioo ol conlination ol tho social piocoss ol pioduction ly sinultanoously undoi-
nining tho oiiginal souicos ol all woalththo soil and tho woikoi.` Cupitu| Vol. ,
London ;o, p. o8.
8 iv
tho zos and os contonpoiaiios ol vaiying political poisuasions had
concludod that capitalisn was coning to an ond, and woio suipiisod ly
its stupondous post-ww iocovoiy. This gioat cono-lack discouiagod
tho noio piudont lion thoioaltoi contonplating a capitalist ciisis doop
and long onough to put a quostion naik ovoi tho lutuio ol tho syston.
Today, so soon altoi its lato zoth-contuiy tiiunphs, it night soon inciod-
illo that anyono would soiiously call into quostion capitalisn`s histoiical
vialility. Tho nattoi was supposodly iosolvod ciica 8. Dopaiting
lion this consonsus, I pioposo that tho coning oia ol socio-ocononic
shako-out and contiactiontho haivost ol uniosolvod ocononic piol-
lons going lack to tho ;osis loing conpoundod ly a diilt in tho
ocononically nost advancod iogions towaids a stationaiy condition. Tho
coning poiiod will lo shapod ly tho convoigonco ol a conjunctuial cii-
sis ol accunulation with ongoing opochal shilts in woild capitalisnin
its tochnological lasos, donogiaphic pattoins and intoinational division
ol lalouithat havo dininishod its capacitios loi sustainallo giowth.
In what lollows, I will highlight sono ol tho nain dinonsions ol this
dual ciisis, and considoi tho loins ol politics that nay tako shapo within
tho contouis ol stiuctuial doclino and tiansloination. What lios loyond
tho hoiizon ol tho cuiiont dolonsivo nationalizations and lailouts ol a
laltoiing status quo?
Pcricdizing tnc prcscnt
Histoiians havo long loon piooccupiod with tho piollon ol doclino
and lall ol connunitios, ol tho ways in which nodos ol lilo cono to
an ond thiough stiuctuial chango, oxtinction, oi thoii involution into
sonllancos ol what thoy onco woio. Whoovoi considois tho piollon ol
qualitativo histoiical changos today can diaw upon vaiious tiaditions ol
thinking alout tho nonont, oi wholo poiiod, duiing which sono oidoi
ol hunan things coasos to oxist. Thoio aio punctuatod collapsostho
conquost ol Pio-Colunlian civilizations, tho ovoithiow ol tho Fionch
Old Rogino, tho soll-liquidation ol tho Soviot llocas woll as thoso
diawn-out tiansitions ol which no contonpoiaiy was cognizant, liko
tho doclino ol anciont slavoiy and tho passagos to loudalisn. How thon
night tho onds ol capitalisn unlold, ovoi what tino span, and along
what dinonsions?
Tho dohning, oxpansionaiy diivo ol capitalisn (MCM' doponds
upon a vast aiiay ol suppoiting and paitly autononous inliastiuctuios
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State
and dynanics. Soon in this light, tho cuiiont piodicanont ol capitalist
civilization is not sinply a nattoi ol a cunulativo logic ol ocononic stag-
nation. I will aiguo that an onoigont tiond lino ol soculai docoloiation
has loon oxacoilatod'ovoidotoininod`ly nounting piollons ol
donogiaphic dispiopoition, ocological dotoiioiation, politico-idoological
do-logitination and goo-political naladaptation. Natuio, cultuio, wai: tho
oxpansionaiy socio-ocononic diivo that paitially totalizod thoso dilloiont
histoiical dinonsions into a woild-syston nay now lo laltoiing, loav-
ing dispaiato olononts and tondoncios ol tho old iogino to poisist, with
indohnito lilo-spans. Poihaps it would not tako nany gonoiations loi
a non-dynanic capitalist oidoi to ovolvo into an inogalitaiian, diilting
post-capitalisn. In any ovont, it is salo to assuno that tho onds ol capital-
isn will lo as unpiocodontod as ovoiything olso alout it has loon.
Il tho collapso ol tho woild naikot duiing tho Gioat Dopiossion initially
appoaiod to conhin ono oi anothoi 'oithodox` intoipiotation ol Maix, in
point ol lact, no gonoial thooiy ol capitalist ciisis has ovoi piovon ado-
quato to oxplain it. Tho causos ol tho dopth and longovity ol tho Gioat
Dopiossion aio still not woll undoistood, at loast loi tho 0s, which, unliko
Goinany, was lai loss dopondont on an unlalancod intoi-wai woild ocon-
ony loi its giowth. Although all capitalist ciisos ston lion anaichic,
soll-undoinining piocossos ol oxpansion, this soll-undoinining has
lailod to adhoio to a gonoial pattoin, and assunos novol loins in ovoiy
conjunctuio. Exit lion a glolal ocononic doadlock took ono couiso altoi
8;a giadual shako-out, without a piocipitous collapso ol output oi liv-
ing standaids, ovontually ioloasing tho uptuin ol tho 8os, and anothoi
altoi za cathaitic puigo ol tho syston ly a sovoio dopiossion,
iosolvod only with tho outlioak ol wai. Each najoi ciisis ol capitalisn
has unloldod in a now socio-histoiical woild that nodulatod tho olls
and ows ol valoiization. As a iosult thoio aio no gonoially applicallo
diagnosos and ionodios.
Whilo policy oundois, a nunloi ol lioadly Maixist accounts ol tho oco-
nonics ol tho poiiod havo cono into thoii own. Tho woiks ol Giovanni
Aiiighi, Roloit Bionnoi and David Haivoy aio lut tho poaks ol a widoi
litoiatuio on tho cuiiont ago ol capital and tho stato. Conpaiod to piovi-
ous opisodos ol capitalist ciisis, tho long load-up to today`s downtuin
has loon noio pioloundly thooiizod. In tho os and ;os, ovon
thoso who did not loliovo that capitalisn had ovoicono its pioponsity to
slunps and ciashos lailod adoquatoly to oxplain tho causos ol a suddon,
o iv
woildwido systonic distioss. What accounts loi tho dilloionco? Poihaps
noo-liloialisn swopt away nany ol tho iogulatoiy institutions and non-
capitalist social loinations that had pioviously inpodod and nodulatod
tho logic ol capital. Poihaps tho unpiocodontod glolal ocononic inlal-
ancos that lod to tho cuiiont ciisis woio always haidoi to ignoio, ovon
as naikots soaiod to now hoights. Foi whatovoi ioason, in tho ago ol its
univoisal tiiunphs, vaiious linits ol capital havo cono into viow. And
yot dospito this cognizanco ol giowing iisk, ovon tho haishost ciitics ol
noo-liloialisn gonoially assunod that this volatility oxpiossod tho dyna-
nisn and iudo hoalth ol tho syston.
Tnc |cng r,cs
Tho last thioo docados ol noo-liloial capitalisn can lo chaiactoiizod as a
piolongod, unsuccosslul attonpt to tianscond tho woild ocononic ciisis
ol tho ;os. Roloit Bionnoi aiguos that tho lasic souico ol today`s cii-
sis is tho dininishod vitality ol tho advancod ocononios ovoi tho ontiio
sulsoquont poiiod.

This docoloiation is tho iosult ol a long-toin doclino

in tho iato ol iotuin on capital invostnont. Dospito a sulsoquont ioduc-
tion in tho shaio ol incono going to wagos and lonohts in all tho loading
ocononios, Bionnoi shows that tho iato ol pioht lailod to iocovoi altoi
tho ;os duo to a poisistont ovoi-capacity in glolal nanulactuiing indus-
tiios in oxcoss ol what would yiold tho piovious iotuin. A laltoiing iato
ol pioht, occasionally iovoisod ly spasnodic upswings, yioldod snalloi
suiplusos loi ioinvostnont, loading to a slow-down in tho giowth ol plant
and oquipnont. In tho loading advancod capitalist countiios, this lod to
oithoi wago stagnation oi highoi unonploynont. Attonpting to iostoio
piohtalility, onployois tho woild ovoi hold down wago and lonoht lov-
ols, whilo govoinnonts ioducod tho giowth ol social oxpondituios. But
tho consoquonco ol thoso cutlacks has loon a piotiactod sluggishnoss
in tho giowth ol donand, ioinloicing tho stagnation stonning lion
ovoipioduction. Tho cunulativo piollon ol docoloiation unoquivocally
nanilostod itsoll in a stoady, syston-wido oxpansion ol govoinnont, hin
and housohold dolt. Although nany havo piotostod that this pictuio ol
tho ocononic poiloinanco ol tho advancod capitalist woild sinco tho ;os
is lai too lloak, this acioss-tho-loaid giowth ol dolt should lo takon as
prinu jucic ovidonco that thoio was, in lact, a slow-down. Foi thoio is no
othoi oxplanation loi why it happonod.

Roloit Bionnoi, Tnc Bccn und tnc Bubb|c, London and Now Yoik zooz.
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State
But in what sonso has thoio loon a woildwido giowth ol dolt duiing this
poiiod? Altoi all, at any givon nonont, invostnontincluding puichasos
ol intoiost-loaiing doltis supposod to lo in oquililiiun with savings.
Tho piollon has loon that an incioasingly laigo pait ol this woild pool
ol savings has cono to suppoit a iunaway giowth ol consunoi dolt
and unsustainallo spoculation, in liou ol hnding an outlot in tho loins
ol invostnont that would gonoiato sustainallo incono giowth. Othoi
countiios` oxpoits gonoiato iosoivos that puichaso 0s dolt at iatos low
onough to sustain its lonanzas. Tho tiuo ocononic histoiy ol tho poiiod
is not a noiality play in which viituous pioducois and savois woio pittod
against ganllois and lig spondois. Tho nanulactuiing soctois ol tho
woild`s loading oxpoit ocononiosChina, Japan and Goinanywoio
just as dopondont on tho luild-up ol dolt and spoculation as tho hnanco
and ioal ostato ol tho doltoi countiios. Tho ioason is that as incono lion
invostnont in plant and oquipnont sank, tho lovol ol aggiogato donand
locano incioasingly dopondont on tuining savings into intoiost-loaiing
dolt, which undoi tho iight conditions can giow out ol all piopoition to
tho stioans ol incono that ultinatoly suppoit it. Dolt is tho tapioot ol
tho nyiiad loins ol ultinatoly unsuppoitod clains on woalth. 'As with
tho stioko ol an onchantoi`s wand, it ondows unpioductivo nonoy with
tho powoi ol cioation and thus tuins it into capital, without loicing it to
oxposo itsoll to tho tioullos and iisks insopaiallo lion its onploynont
in industiy oi ovon in usuiy.`
q
Evontually, ol couiso, it is oxposod to all tho tioullos and iisks ol its
onploynont. In Bionnoi`s account tho cuiiont ciisis is tho inoxoiallo
iosuilacing ol tho piossuio loi a systonic shako-out that was novoi
allowod to happon ovoi tho couiso ol tho last thioo docados, dospito
nultiplo iounds ol downsizing and nassivo dopaituios ol capital lion
ovoiciowdod nanulactuiing linos to choapoi localos and hnancial assots.
Tho inplosion ol tho Anoiican-contiod hnancial and ioal-ostato lul-
llo is tho ond ol tho lino loi a wholo poiiod ol giavity-dolying account
inlalancos, assot lulllos and dolt cioation. Ol couiso, tho noo-liloial
oia has witnossod onoinous lail-outs loloio: lion tho oaily 8os, such
cloan-up opoiations havo loon an ossontial onalling condition ol got-
ting tho loon and lulllo dynanic iolling again. But unliko piovious
local opisodos ol noo-liloial noltdown, this ono is olviously taking placo
on a vastly laigoi scalo, and no lailout can ioalistically koop tho woild
q
Cupitu| Vol. , p. .
z iv
oconony lion ontoiing into oithoi a now oia ol woild dopiossion oi a
piotiactod poiiod ol slow-giowth stalilization, oi poihaps sono novol
conlination ol tho two.
E|usticity cj cupitu|
So lai thoio has loon no gonoial lall in piico lovols, apait lion housing
naikots, ol tho kind that naikod tho 8;os oi tho os. This tostihos
to tho loinidallo capacitios ol tho post-wai stato to suppoit donand,
although this nay soon hit its linits as tho toll ol unonploynont con-
tinuos to iiso ovoiywhoio. Tho cuiiont loin ol stalilization and tho
naikot iallios it nakos possillo cono at tho cost ol giowing indolt-
odnoss, which cannot continuo indohnitoly. This doos not noan that
tho lotton will ovontually lall out ol piicos, as it did duiing tho Gioat
Dopiossion. In lact, tho doationaiy consoquoncos ol a laigo-scalo diop
in consunptiontho upshot ol hins and housoholds attonpting to
pay down thoii doltswill likoly lo intoitwinod with, and occasionally
countoiactod ly, inationaiy oi ovon hypoi-inationaiy lulllos that will
iosult lion attonpts to stinulato agging ocononios with injoctions ol
ovoi noio liquidity, that is, ly tho piinting ol nonoy. Ovoi tho noxt sov-
oial yoais, wo aio likoly to witnoss tho liith ol a now and lowildoiing
loin ol stagation.
Instoad ol piopping up aggiogato donand thiough dolt, ono night
ask whothoi it would havo loon possillo altoi tho ;os to unloash a
ciisis on a scalo sulhciont to liquidato tho vast quantitios ol naiginal
and inolhciont capital holding down tho iato ol iotuin, thoioly iostoi-
ing tho nocossaiy conditions loi a noio dynanic capital accunulation.
Tho CaitoiVolckoi shock was a liiol oxpoiinont in that diioction.
Ol couiso, il tho 0s had stuck to that stiatogy, Latin Anoiican scalo
stiuctuial adjustnonts night havo loon tho oidoi ol tho day thiough-
out nuch ol tho oc. Poihaps il thoso sociotios had loon allo to
withstand a shako-out on this scalo, iatos ol giowth night ovontu-
ally havo iotuinod to a lovol that could havo sustainod a loss dolt- and
spoculation-dopondont, alloit noio nodost, iato ol giowth. But would
this sconaiio havo natoiializod? Austoiity in this poiiod has only lod to
giowth thiough a ioalignnont ol tho oconony to oxpoiting. Il tho 0s
had stayod tho Volckoi couiso in tho 8os, it nay voiy woll havo plungod
tho wholo woild oconony (and not just Latin Anoiica into a dopios-
sion, and thon would havo lound no ono to oxpoit to. In any ovont, low
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State
sociotios in tho post-wai aluont capitalist nould would havo onduiod
such a diastic iostiuctuiing and disontitlonont, without tho cloai pios-
poct ol a iotuin to iising lovols ol consunption.
High iatos ol giowth sustainod tho social contiact ol post-wai capitalisn
in tho Wost. Evon altoi its Goldon Ago, a luoyant consunoiisn ionainod
as an unnogotiallo logacy. Not only was a cathaitic llast ol thoiough-
going cioativo dostiuction out ol tho quostion altoi tho loginning ol tho
downtuin in tho ;os, tho lowoi giowth iatos ol consunption chaiactoiis-
tic ol oailioi oias ol capitalisn woio no longoi socio-politically logitinato.
Giowing lovols ol dolt woio noodod to nako up loi tho potontial lall-oll in
consunption. This happonod dospito tho nass ontiy ol wonon into tho
woikloico, naking doullo-incono housoholds tho noin. Tho luild-up
ol dolt in this poiiod, ultinatoly nado possillo ly hat nonoy, oxpiossod
institutionalizod oxpoctations ol iising aluonco. Whilo it is tiuo that tho
giowth iatos ol tho last thiity yoais havo not loon low conpaiod to noio
ionoto histoiic avoiagos, thoy havo loon low in conpaiison to thoso his-
toiically shapod oxpoctations which, as Maix said ol tho wago lovol, sot
tho standaid ol what is high and low.
Thoio aio still intact socio-political laiiiois to tho downwaid adjustnont
ol living standaids in tho advancod capitalist countiios, and piolally
in sono ol tho noio succosslul iocontly dovoloping onos too. Noo-
liloialisn liought laigo-scalo unonploynont to Euiopo, long-toin
wago stagnation to Anoiica and incioasing jol and lonoht insocuiity
ovoiywhoio. But oxcopt loi tho lotton hlth ol tho population, nuch ol
tho social danago was cushionod ly social piovision, tho incioaso ol
wonon`s oainings (allowing loi giowth in ovoiall housohold incono
and, in sono countiios, luigooning ciodit-caid dolt and houso-piico
ination. Acioss tho oc, pullic piovision actually ioso thioughout
tho noo-liloial poiiod as a poicontago ol cv, laigoly duo to tho stoad-
ily iising hoalth-caio costs ol thoso agoing sociotios. As a paiticulaily
stiiking oxanplo ol this tiond, Modicaio shot up duiing tho adninis-
tiation ol G. W. Bush. But in tho alsonco ol tho cushion ol dolt and
spoculation, standaids ol living could login to dotoiioiato in ways noio
ioniniscont ol tho os than tho 8os. Ol couiso, sovoial countiios oxpo-
iioncod Dopiossion-liko collapsos in tho 8os and oaily os, oi in tho
iun ol ciisos lion ; to zoo, lut outsido ol Aliica thoso had tho
cold conloits ol oxpoit-lasod giowth to lall lack on, altoi thoy woio
iackod ly stiuctuial adjustnont. Thoio aio no conpaiallo 'highoi
q iv
powois` to inposo stiuctuial adjustnont on tho laigost advancod capi-
talist sociotios, lut thoio is also now no innodiato austoiity]oxpoit path
ol adjustnont. All tho cuiiont Hoiculoan olloits ol lailing out and stin-
ulation dononstiato that tho loadois ol tho advancod capitalist woild
alioady know that what was supposodly good loi tho Thiid Woild gooso
is out ol tho quostion loi tho Fiist Woild gandoi.
Tccnnc|cgicu| rcvc|uticn
No social oidoi ovoi disappoais loloio all tho pioductivo loicos
loi which thoio is ioon in it havo loon dovolopod.
Kail Maix, Ccntributicn tc tnc Critiquc cj Pc|iticu| Eccncny
Tho contonpoiaiy ciisis oxhilits a nunloi ol unlaniliai chaiactoiistics
stonning lion tho inalility ol advancod capitalist sociotios to loai tho
costs ol a now socio-tochnical inliastiuctuio, to supoisodo tho oxisting
hxod-capital giid. Tho lattoi cuiiontly ontionchos a oo-yoai-old conplox
ol pioductivo loicos at tho coio ol tho woild oconony. Tho stiuctuial
inpasso that this has cioatod has not loon lully giaspod, loading to dil-
hcultios in histoiicizing tho last quaitoi-contuiy ol capitalisn. Fiodiic
Janoson`s concoption ol postnodoinisn as tho cultuial logic ol tho
poiiod is aigually tho gioat lonchnaik ol contonpoiaiy opochalisn.

In
tho oaily 8os, Janoson oiiginally concoivod ol this now oidoi ol things as
a piohguiation ol gioundlioaking now tochnologios and onoigy souicos
ol capitalisn. In oidoi to undoistand tho sulsoquont tiajoctoiy ol capital-
ist socioty, it is inpoitant to iocognizo that this gioat loap loiwaid, what
Einost Mandol callod tho Thiid Tochnological Rovolution, novoi ioally
natoiializod. Evon a noio nodostly concoivod 'post-Foidisn` lailod to
ioloaso a pioductivity iovolution that would ioduco costs and lioo up
incono loi an all-iound oxpansion.
Instoad, tho latost phaso ol capitalisn got an oisatz loin ol giowth pii-
naiily thiough ciodit-caid consunoiisn and assot lulllos. Janoson`s
oxplanation loi contonpoiaiy socioty`s inalility to oxpoiionco and iop-
iosont tho totality ol tho woild syston initially attiilutod it to sono
innoasuiallo dispiopoition lotwoon hunan agoncy and nowly

David Haivoy`s altoinativo thooiization ol postnodoin capitalisn is noio diioctly

locusod on tho piollon ol tho iiso and lall ol socio-spatial inliastiuctuios. Soo
Haivoy, Tnc Ccnditicn cj Pcstncdcrnity. An Enquiry intc tnc Origins cj Cu|turu|
Cnungc, Canliidgo o.
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State
unloashod nucloai and cyloinotic pioductivo loicos.
o
But in latoi
accounts, tho locus ol tho piollon silontly shiltod to napping an opaquo,
psoudo-dynanic woild ol hnancial naikots. Initial anticipations ol an
oxhilaiating now cultuial condition gavo way to totalizations ol a noio
closod and doiivativo situation. Capitalisn`s cultuio locano an oiganizod
sonllanco ol woild-histoiic dynanisn concoaling and countoiacting a
soculai docoloiation in 'tho ioal oconony`.
But what alout inloination tochnology and containoiizationtho
two signatuio tochnological lioakthioughs ol tho poiiod? Thoso havo
undoultodly powoiod a hugo incioaso in woild tiado, ovoi and alovo tho
giowth ol tho woild oconony itsoll. Conputoiization and 'just in tino`
nodos ol oiganizing supply chains nado it oasioi than ovoi loloio to
liing nanulactuiod goods to tho woild naikot, and iolocato pioduction.
Thoso cost-ioducing tochnological and oiganizational changos countoiod
tho potontially inationaiy consoquoncos ol tho giowing supply ol vaii-
ous loins ol nonoy. Alongsido Anoiican dohcits, thoso tiado-pionoting
changos woio iosponsillo loi accoloiating East Asian and ospocially
Chinoso giowth. But unliko a 'nucloai-cyloinotic industiial iovolution`,
oi tho shilt to sono altoinativo onoigy souico, tochnological chango in
this loin has, ly and laigo, liought vast quantitios ol goods lion coun-
tiios with lowoi laloui costs into woild naikots alioady woighod down
ly ovoipioduction ol thoii highoi-cost oquivalonts, instoad ol luolling
giowth thiough tho cioation ol wholo now linos ol pioduction.
In tho os it soonod plausillo that containoiization, post-Foidist pio-
duction and supply chains and inloination tochnology in tho now olhco
placo woio tho diiving loicos ol a tiansition to a Now Econony, ono noio
pioductivo, and in dilloiont ways, than anything that had cono loloio
it. But this gioat tiansloination sonohow lailod to show up statistically
and, in duo couiso, tho stock-naikot ciash ol zoo liought an ond to
tho docado ol cyloi-hypo. Altogothoi loss plausillo was tho sulsoquont
oxpoctation that tochnologically iotiogiado ioal-ostato lulllos, pioviding
naikots loi oxpoitois ol consunoi duiallos and iaw natoiials, could
lo a sustainallo lasis loi ocononic giowth. Rathoi than loading to any
'Now Econony` in tho pioductivo laso, tho innovations ol this poiiod ol
capitalisn havo powoiod tiansloinations in tho Lcbcnswc|t ol divoision
o
Janoson, Tnc !dcc|cgics cj Tnccry, London and Now Yoik zoo8, p. qo, 'Post-
nodoinisn, oi tho Cultuial Logic ol Lato Capitalisn`, n ]qo, JulyAug 8q.
o iv
and socialility, an oxpansion ol discount and luxuiy shopping, lut alovo
all a hoioic ago ol what was until iocontly callod 'hnancial tochnology`.
Intoinot and nolilo phonos, Walnait and Piada, BlackScholos and
sulpiinosuch aio tho tochnological landnaiks ol tho poiiod.
Lccking cust
Alongsido this nyth ol a tochnological now ago, tho othoi giand nai-
iativo ol capitalisn in this poiiod has loon tho do-contiing ol tho
Euio-Anoiican coio ol capitalist civilization ly tho iiso ol Asia, ly which
was noant hist Japan, and thon China. Postnodoin glolalization has
loon an opic ol tho soll-tianscondonco ol tho Wost towaids an Oiiontal
hoiizon. (Both googiaphically and woild histoiically it nakos sonso that,
in such accounts ol tho lutuio ol capitalisn, Asia should appoai as tho
now Wost, an Anoiica loi tho noxt nillonniun. Foi noio than hall a
contuiy 0s hogonony had holpod nako this dovolopnont possillo, ly
oponing up its vast naikot to soloctod clionts and pioviding thon with
lioo nilitaiy piotoction lion Connunisn. In its lato, post-Cold Wai
phaso, 0s donand galvanizod tho iapid giowth ol Asia`s oxpoit powoi-
housos, which pioducod alioady oxisting nanulactuiod goods lut noio
choaply. Instoad ol unloashing now pioductivo loicos noio lioadly oi
intonsivoly, tho lattoi`s accunulatod suiplusos ovontually cano to luol
tho ination ol assot lulllos aiound tho woild.
Tho piocoss ol this iolocation ol tochnologically loss-advancod industiial
pioduction to low-wago iogions has unloldod dilloiontly to that ol tho
classically oxpansionaiy phasos ol tho capitalist syston. Although China
has giown voiy iapidly along thoso linos, tho woild oconony as a wholo
has giown too slowly and dispiopoitionatoly loi ovon this to lo sustain-
allo. Whilo tho 0s, and tho Wost noio gonoially, will cono to accopt a
laigoi iolo loi China in sono onoiging, unstoady ciisis-nanagonont
iogino, this is not tho loginning ol a now, China-contiod phaso ol accu-
nulation. Foi tho lattoi to lo concoivallo, Chinoso giowth would havo to
cono to dopond on now and noio advancod pioductivo loicosnot sin-
ply tho lioadoi dissonination ol oxisting onos that aio not ovon at tho
nost advancod lovol, liko tho 0s tochniquos that spioad to Euiopo and
Japan altoi tho wai. Tho quaitoi-contuiy stoiy ol countiios with a hall oi
a hlth ol 0s poi capita cv catching up and indood suipassing it, cannot
lo iopoatod today ly othois that havo scaicoly a louitoonth.
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State ;
Lowoi-toch nanulactuiing could concoivally koop China giowing at
an inpiossivo iato lut it cannot lo tho lasis loi a now glolal phaso ol
accunulation. Moioovoi, China`s iato ol giowth will soon lo chockod
as oxpoit naikots diy up. It is not cloai whothoi China can now shilt
to donostically diivon accunulation without a signihcant slow-down
in giowth. Only altoi a long, socio-politically tiansloinativo piocoss ol
luilding up a conponsatoiy donostic donand will sono ol tho lasos ol
sustainod giowth lo socuiod loi its population ol a lillion and a quai-
toi. Tho vc`s cuiiont inliastiuctuial invostnont stinulus is unlikoly to
countoiact tho nassivo shako-out ol its oxpoit soctoi, locauso it is piol-
ally too snall and too capital-intonsivo to login shilting tho oconony
towaids donostic donand.
Il tho woild was noving towaids a now phaso ol vigoious, capitalist
accunulation, China would lo ono ol its nain opicontios. But aio thoio
any ioasons loi thinking that, as tho downtuin sinultanoously intonsi-
hos in Japan, tho 0s and nuch ol Euiopo, China will not only lo allo
to avoid loing diaggod down with thon, lut will lo allo to giow so last
as to opon up oppoitunitios loi thoii oxpoit-lasod iocovoiy? Evon ly
tho laigost ostinatos ol its sizo, and ovon assuning that its incioasingly
oxpoit-dopondont high iato ol giowth will not now doclino piocipitously,
China`s oconony is too snall to caiiy tho woight. Tho Wost will continuo
to doclino without giving iiso to an ascondancy ol tho Fai East, lot alono
ol Biazil, Russia oi India.
Thoso conjoctuios aio attonpts to situato whoio wo aio in tho |cnguc
durcc ol capitalisnsonowhoio in nid-stioan oi, altoinativoly, closoi
to an ond, whothoi this nodo ol pioduction is old oi now, ioaching its
outoi linits oi poisod loi luithoi wavos ol oxpansion. Tho dianatic
goo-ocononic oxpansion ol tho syston ovoi tho last two docados, tho
ongoing loinal sulsunption ol tho last gioat poasant populations ol
Asia, as woll as tho incoipoiation ol tho ox-Conocon industiial woild,
soonod to dononstiato tho long-toin giowth piospocts, innoi and outoi
vistas ol colonization, ol an Enpiio in stutu nusccndi. But soculai stagna-
tion and chionically sputtoiing ocononios in nuch ol Latin Anoiica,
Aliica and tho loinoi Soviot Union stand as soloiing tostinony to tho
lailuios ol noo-liloial 'piinitivo accunulation` whon conpaiod to tho
classic onclosuios that luollod capital`s gonosis and opisodos ol oxpan-
sion. Miko Davis`s P|unct cj S|uns is a distuiling oxpos ol tho oxpulsion
8 iv
ol an ovoi-giowing nass ol olsoloto hunanity lion tho woild nai-
kot, as oithoi pioducois oi consunois.
;
Paiallol piocossos ol olsolosconco havo unloldod in tho advancod capi-
talist soctoi. Dospito poiiodic luists ol lionziod spoculation lion tho
nid-8os, acconpaniod ly lanlaio announcing tho advont ol an oia
ol unpiocodontod capitalist dynanisn, tho iosults havo only loon liiol,
unsustainallo louts ol now tochnological invostnont. Maix soons to havo
anticipatod that capitalisn would login to slow down in tho natuio linos
ol its old honolands, as tho oxplosivo pioductivity giowth ol nachinos
naking ovoi noio pioductivo nachinos iosultod in tho onploynont ol
ovoi lowoi woikois. Ovoi tho long toin, tho luithoi giowth ol industiial
pioductivity would lo thwaitod ly its tondoncy to ioduco onploynont
in this soctoi, and thus also to ioduco tho aggiogato donand that would
puichaso tho oxpansion ol output. This was tho loin in which a contia-
diction lotwoon tho loicos and iolations ol pioduction would unlold.
Crcy sccicty
Whatovoi tho noiits ol this account, it is quostionallo whothoi tho stoiy
ol sustainallo pioductivity giowth thiough industiial iovolutions will
continuo in tho oia ol tho soivico soctoi. Maix inpliod that tho 'intoinal`
cost ol capital loino ly hins would go up, liinging down tho pioht
iato. What is loing suggostod hoio is that coitain oxtoinal social costs
iiso ovoi tho long toin that cannot lo countoiactod ly pioductivity gains
olsowhoio in tho oconony. Advancod capitalisn would got a now loaso
on lilo il it lound a way to docioaso signihcantly tho costs ol hoalth, odu-
cation and ago caio without diastically ioducing tho lovol and quality ol
piovision. But tho pioductivity iovolutions that ioducod tho agiicultuial
population to singlo digits, and aio now doing tho sano to industiial
woikloicosol couiso, countoiactod ly outsouicing to choapoi laloui
zonosaio unlikoly to lo iopoatod loi laigo paits ol what is callod tho
soivico oconony. This is tho nain ioason why capitalist ocononios ovon-
tually hoad towaids tho stationaiy stato.
Tho ioason why nanulactuiing is 'tochnologically piogiossivo` has to do
with its intiinsic attiilutospioduction in this soctoi can lo ioadily stand-
aidizod, and consoquontly, tho inloination ioquiiod loi pioduction can lo
loinalizod in a sot ol instiuctions which can thon lo oasily ioplicatod. In
;
Miko Davis, P|unct cj S|uns, London and Now Yoik zooo.
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State
tho caso ol soivicos, thoio aio laigo dilloioncos lotwoon vaiious activitios in
thoii anonalility to pioductivity giowth. Sono soivicos which aio inpoi-
sonal, as in toloconnunications, havo attiilutos sinilai to nanulactuiing
and honco, can lo 'tochnologically piogiossivo`. Howovoi, poisonal soiv-
icos, such as coitain typos ol nodical caio, cannot lo oasily standaidizod
and suljoct to tho sano nass pioduction nothods usod in nanulactuiing.
Thoso typos ol soivicos, thoioloio, will lo 'tochnologically stagnant`. In gon-
oial, il thoio aio two activitios, ono ol which is 'tochnologically piogiossivo`,
and tho othoi 'tochnologically stagnant`, thon in tho long toin tho avoi-
ago iato ol giowth will lo dotoininod ly tho activity in which pioductivity
giowth is slowost.
8
It is not cloai how 'post-industiial` capitalisn will lo allo to ioduco tho
costs ol social iopioduction, givon tho long-toin piollons ol tochnological
stagnation in soivicos liko hoalth caio. This ocononic tiansition ovoilaps
in tuin with a donogiaphic ono, in which agoing populations cono to
lo suppoitod ly dininishing nunlois ol pioductivo woikois: ly zoo,
zz poi cont ol tho woild`s population will lo ovoi oo, loi Asia, tho hguio
will lo zq poi cont. Tho coio ol tho post-;os conjunctuial ciisis is an
uniosolvod piollon ol ovoipioduction and doclining iotuins, loading to a
slow-down ol giowth loth ioliovod and oxacoilatod ly tho conponsatoiy
luild-up ol dolt. Tho inhoiontly slow giowth ol soivico-soctoi pioductivity
luithoi oxacoilatos tho piollon ol donand, ioinloicing othoi tondoncios
in this diioction. Tho conjunctuial ciisis ol noo-liloialisn has locono
intoitwinod with an opochal-stiuctuial ono liought on ly a tiansition to
a slow-giowth, post-industiial soivico soctoi ocononytho agoing, gioy
capitalisn that Rolin Blackluin has analysod.

Blackluin`s studios oxploio tho ways in which ponsion-lund oxpansion

has gonoiatod tho potontials loi a socialization ol tho hnancial sphoio,
ovon as this dovolopnont ionains tiappod and thwaitod ly shoit-toin,
spoculativo logics.

Intiinsic to this is tho insight that nodoin ocononios
havo cono to ioly upon ovoi-gioatoi stato suppoit ol tho inliastiuctuial
onviionnonts that sustain tho valuo loin. Both tho vialility ol capi-
talisn and tho loin ol whatovoi lios loyond its hoiizon dopond upon
whothoi a politics onoigos that will novo this piocoss ol tho sociali-
zation ol inliastiuctuio luilding and naintonanco onto a iational
and plannod tiack, as opposod to it unlolding as an ovoi laigoi pullic
8
Roloit Rowthoin and Ranana Ranaswany, 'Doindustiialization: Causos and
Inplications`, & Woiking Papoi ;]qz, Apiil ;.

Rolin Blackluin, Bunking cn Dcutn, London and Now Yoik zoo, and Agc Sncck,
London and Now Yoik zoo;.
zo iv
sulsidy to tho agging powois ol piivato capital. It is haid to inagino a
socially accoptallo, cost-olloctivo solution to nany ol thoso 'lio-political`
piollons within tho lianowoik ol capitalisn. Its histoiical vitality and
oxpansivonoss has dopondod upon a donogiaphic youthlulnoss that is
unsustainallo ovoi tho long toin.
Ajtcr ncc-|ibcru|isn
What aio tho piospocts today loi ioloining capitalisn in tho altoinath
ol noo-liloialisn? Sono chango is inovitallo, as tho iuling idoas ol tho
poiiod havo suddonly gono lankiupt, ovon as thoy, liko tho gioat lanks
thoy pionotod, got pioppod up loi a whilo, oi gontly whiskod oll stago.
But in this dilapidatod stato, noo-liloialisn`s loinoi piotonsions to
intolloctual supoiioiity and ioalisn will no longoi lo sulloiallo. Ono
ol its noio sciupulous apostlos iocontly nado tho lollowing announco-
nont: 'Anothoi idoological god has lailod. Tho assunptions that iulod
policy and politics ovoi thioo docados suddonly look as outdatod as
iovolutionaiy socialisn.`
o
But populai sulsciiption to thoso policios
has aigually always loon shallow, doponding upon tho poicoption
that thoio was no altoinativo way loi an oconony to novo loiwaid.
Although tho iooxos ol nost political systons nako a cloan lioak with
tho status quo inconcoivallo, ono would oxpoct thoso govoinnonts to
ioact piagnatically as ocononios stait contiacting, ly ditching luithoi
oxpoiinonts in doiogulation and piivatization, whilo tiying to piop up
naikot valuos thiough vast pullic intoivontions, in tho low instancos
whoio such options aio availallo.
It night lo thought that tho discioditing ol noo-liloialisn would sond
us lack to an oailioi Koynosianisn, lut this is unlikoly to happon. Noo-
liloialisn was not just a 'iovoiso couiso` dopaituio lion tho thiity yoais
ol post-wai nanagod capitalisn, lut also a continuation ol it ly othoi
noans. This inplios that what night lo coning to an ond is tho wholo
post-q poiiod ol capitalisn, in which govoinnonts clainod tho
capacity to snooth out lusinoss cyclos and iocossions thiough donand
cioation. Il tho last thiity yoais ol noo-liloialisn havo witnossod a nas-
sivo oxpansion ol ovoiall lovols ol piivato and pullic dolt, conponsating
loi poisistont slow giowth in tho ioal oconony, can govoinnonts ioalisti-
cally stinulato ocononios now ly taking on noio dolt thiough pullic
oxpondituio? Tho Koynosianisn ol tho os was a ionody loi ocononios
o
Maitin Woll, 'Soods ol its own dostiuction`, Finunciu| Tincs, 8 Maich zoo.
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State z
that had alioady lottonod out, not a noans loi piovonting dolt-ladon
ocononios lion dolovoiaging. Moio Anoiican dolt just piolongs tho
cunulativo piollon ol nassivo glolal nisallocation and inlalancos,
ovon il tho altoinativo ol lotting tho piollon uniavol in a chaotic lioo-loi-
all would nako things considoially woiso.
Tho hopo that tho piosont ciisis night lacilitato a tiansition to gioon cap-
italisn nay lo oqually unloundod. Whilo stagnation itsoll could possilly
slow down an ongoing, hoadlong dotoiioiation ol natuial onviionnonts,
a shilt to altoinativo onoigy and gioon tochnology would alnost coitainly
lo undoininod ly tho ioduction in tho piico ol lossil luols that would
iosult lion a piotiactod slunp. Ovoiconing thoso disincontivos, tho
pullic connitnonts ol loading statos could ol couiso lo shiltod to altoi-
nativo luols oi gioon tochnology ly a politics iationally oiiontod towaids
tho long toin. But at piosont it soons unlikoly that such a politics could
also lo hainossod to a naiiow piojoct ol capitalist iostoiation. Tho scalo
ol pullic suppoit loi sulhciontly ionodial noasuios would ovoistop
thoso lounds, and thoioloio lo iosistod voiy stionuously, unloss piocipi-
tous dotoiioiation oxposod socially iolovant populations to onoigoncy
conditions. Howovoi dotoininod thoso olloits in consoivation and sus-
tainalility ovontually locono, tho ocological inpasso ol capitalisn is
likoly to lo tho nost alsoluto ol all.
Thoso piollons aio always poicoivod and tioatod ly wholo poo-
plos as hold piollons, i.o. thoy aio iogaidod as loing solullo
(and anonallo to analysis only in tho capitalist hold . . . At tho
holn is this oi that class, this oi that iogino, this oi that solution
is loing piossod, this oi that paiticulai diioction has loon takon
otc, and until tho ioal and inaginaiy possililitios ol tho hold
havo loon lianod, tiiod, oxhaustod and discioditod, no othoi
hold aiisos. Though tho hold itsoll nay not satisly ioason (inagi-
nation nay locato othoi holds, oxpoiionco suggosts yot othois,
in tho cuiiontly lunctioning hold ol piactico thoio is still onough
ioason opoiating loi tho puiposos ol tho ontiio pooplo and loi
tho puiposos ol justilying what is happoning.
Boitolt Biocht, ]curnu|s rr, ontiy loi q Juno qo
With its onoinous lailouts, tho Olana Adninistiation has sought to
salvago whatovoi night lo savod lion tho noo-liloial status quo, includ-
ing, ol couiso, Anoiican soignioiago. This olloit, ovon il it novos loyond
tho passivity ol oxisting noasuios, will likoly lail on its own toins.
zz iv
Tho lovol ol oxpondituio and stato indoltodnoss ioquiiod to stinulato
unsustainallo stock-naikot iallios and waid oll doation will ovontually
conpol loioign holdois ol dollai iosoivos to alandon luithoi puichasos
ol dollai-dononinatod dolt, thus diiving up its cost. Until now, East
Asian govoinnonts havo loon happy to lund 0s oxtoinal and govoin-
nont dohcits, in oidoi to sustain 0s consunption and thoii own oxpoits.
But with tho ciisis ovoitaking ovon China, thoso govoinnonts nay loso
tho capacity to hnanco 0s dohcits, ospocially as thoy giow to unpioc-
odontod sizo, yiolding dininishing iotuins.
Foi tho tino loing, tho woild`s loading oxpoit ocononios continuo to
accunulato dollai iosoivos, loi loai that il thoy woio to stop, a stanpodo
to dunp dollais night login, iosulting in a punishing dovaluation ol
thoii iosoivos. Bosidos, in tho alsonco ol any othoi suitally lig and liquid
stoio ol valuo, 0s Tioasuiios havo piosoivod a now inpiolallo auia ol
saloty. But tho tipping point is poihaps not so lai away, a iun on tho dollai
night lioak out dospito tho lost olloits to piovont it, oi, pio-onptivoly,
tho 0s could attonpt to liquidato its dolt load to loioignois with nonoy
piintod on a scalo that would unloash an oxplosivo lout ol hypoiination,
undoinining tho loundations ol tho woild naikot loi a long tino to
cono. This inpossillo oithoi]oi situation has lod to an inpasso: dolt
lovols cannot lo liought down thiough vast dovaluations locauso tho
woildwido socio-political lallout would lo ovoiwholning, lut piopping
up oxisting lovols with noio dolt is ocononically unsustainallo, ovon
undoi tho lost-caso sconaiios ol cooidination. In thoii tinidity, piosont
olloits to shoio up a tottoiing status quo with vast stinulus packagos
nay wind up shaiing tho lato ol olloits ly oaily Dopiossion-oia govoin-
nonts to do tho sano thiough austoiity noasuios. Tho 'solution` to tho
conjunctuial piollon ol hnancial inplosion night lo a piolongod,
dilhcult-to-sustain holding pattoin, convoiging with an opochal shilt to a
stationaiy stato. Tho loinoi piocoss nay alioady havo staitod, tho lattoi
could lo tho woik ol a gonoiation.
Pc|iticu| jcrns
Which oc sociotios could withstand piolongod louts ol stiuctuial
adjustnont ol tho kind that innisoiatod populations lion Lagos to
Vladivostokospocially now, whon thoio aio no longoi oxpoit outlots
to countoiact tho inplosion ol tho hono naikot? It is dilhcult to soo
what noasuios could lo takon ly political ostallishnonts to onsuio that
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State z
dopiossion-stiickon sociotios stick to tho couiso duiing this long naich.
It is piolally salo to assuno that oloctod pailianonts, shoikhdons and
oligaichios will all cloavo to tho dilapidatod hull ol Anoiican statocialt
loi as long as thoy can, altoi a piolongod poiiod in which such iulois
havo stoppod contonplating tho altoinativos. But tho do-linking that will
now unlold in tho loin ol collapsing oxpoits oi withdiawn ciodit in any
nunloi ol thoso countiios night oscalato to a dilloiont stago il powoi
woio to slip lion thoii hands.
What politico-idoological loins will iosistanco to iostiuctuiing tako,
whon tho lattoi can no longoi lo inplonontod in accoidanco with tho
dictatos ol nonoy naikots, and now has to lo inposod thiough noio
diioctly politicaland thoioloio noio contiovoisialpiocossos ol dotoi-
nining winnois and losois? Tho oiosion ol oldoi tiaditions ol colloctivo
iosponso nakos piodiction hazaidous. Tho initially localizod opposition
to thoso piocossos will lo 'class-liko` to iadically vaiying dogioos, con-
ditioning tho shapo ol tho social stiuctuios that will onoigo out ol tho
contonpoiaiy iotionchnont ol capitalisn. Tho outcono ol thoso stiug-
glos nay dopond upon tho dogioo to which stato powois can loitily tho
ossontials ol piopoity and piivilogo as thoy could in an oldoi ago ol class
conict. In nany paits ol tho woild, tho cooicivo coio ol tho stato appaia-
tus has undoigono a long-toin piocoss ol noutialization. Elsowhoio, this
is a noio iocont and iovoisillo dovolopnont. In tho coning poiiod, how
will dilloiont political systons iospond to ciooping and diioct thioats
to tho iulo ol capital and its coio constituoncios, whon tho onoigoncy
iosoit to loico nay no longoi lo availallo to any docisivo olloct? Duiing
tho os nost ol Euiopo outsido ol Scandinavia luichod to tho Right, with
liiol Populai Fiont intoiludos in Spain and Fianco. Tho 0s, and nuch
ol Latin Anoiica wont Lolt. It night lo intoiosting to tiy to anticipato
sinilai vaiiations today acioss all tho zonos ol tho woild-syston.
With a low woithy oxcoptions, thoio aio cuiiontly no laigo-scalo lolt-
wing paitios and novononts inplononting oi ovon donanding iadical
ioloins. But dospito thoii alundant iosoivos ol inoitia and passivity,
advancod capitalist sociotios aio piolally incapallo ol onduiing tho
scalo ol haidship that a tiuo dopiossion would inict on thon, in tho
way that thoso sano sociotios nanagod to got ly in tho os, and othoi
pooioi onos havo dono in oui poiiod. Il thoio aio no innodiato lolt-wing
Koynosian solutions, and socioty cannot lo allowod to tako tho plungo
into a lull-scalo shako-out, aio thoio thon any viallo iight-wing 'statist`, i.o.
zq iv
non-naikot-lasod, solutions to tho cuiiont contiadictions ol capitalisn?
Conpaiisons to tho os inovitally iaiso tho quostion ol whothoi it is
possillo loi advancod capitalist sociotios to novo in tho diioction ol a
politics analogous to lascisn. Thoio is littlo chanco that tho oloctoial-
isn that swopt tho oaith altoi 8 will lo nonacod lion this diioction,
although vaiious woak statos ol onoigoncy will no doult alound. It is
unlikoly that oldoi, iight-wing loins ol authoiity and disciplino could lo
inposod on a donos ol soivico woikois and consunois, inuiod to noio
indiioct loins ol powoi, lut alloigic to tiaditional authoiity.
Sinco tho conclusion ol tho Socond Woild Wai and tho advont ol tho
atonic ago, thoio havo loon no hoad-to-hoad conliontations lotwoon
tho woild`s nost powoilul statos. This long poaco in tho Euiasian coio
has lod to lowoi lovols ol nanpowoi nolilization, pionoting a loss
authoiitaiian lut thoioughly dopoliticizod cultuial atnosphoio. Tho
consoquoncos ol this pacihcation loi iolations lotwoon tho soxos havo
loon nonontous, loining a powoilul piogiossivo tiond lion an oailioi
oia that continuos thiough this ono. Fouiioi clainod that tho lovol ol
onancipation in any socioty could lo noasuiod ly tho position ol wonon
within it, a notiic that qualihos any ovoily possinistic concoption ol this
histoiical poiiod. This is an ago in which statist authoiitaiianisn livos
on only in vostigos and lackwatois. Ol couiso, ioactionaiy canpaigns
tailoiod to tho sonsitivitios ol thoso noio donociatic populations nood
not lo nilitaiistic. Innigiation, and in Anoiica 'iaco`, aio still poton-
tially toxic wodgo issuos. In sono casos, ono can oxpoct that tho llano
loi collapsing onploynont and social piovision will lo pinnod on othno-
iacial ninoiitios, lut it is haid to soo how tho iosulting oxclusionaiy
noasuios could ovon put a dont in tho piollon.
Tho iadical iight politics ol tho intoi-wai oia dopondod upon tho noli-
lizing atnosphoiics ol gioat-powoi iivaliy, diastically shaiponod ly tho
poicoption ol a Rod nonaco. Moioovoi, in tho nidst ol a collapsing woild
naikot, a now intoinational oidoi lasod on a nutant loin ol autaichic
capitalisn soonod ontiioly plausillo. (How viallo it would havo loon
ovoi tho longoi toin is anothoi nattoi. Evon il wo aio noving lion a
noo-liloialisn to now loins ol pullic ownoiship, tonoiiow`s stagnant
and pacihod stato capitalisns aio unlikoly to oxhilit tho political diioc-
tivonoss ol thoii antocodonts lion a lygono industiial oia ol wollaio and
wailaio. Mid-contuiy stato capitalisns woio liioy dynanic locauso
ntitxvisit: Stat|onary State z

Giovanni Aiiighi, Tnc Lcng Twcntictn Ccntury, London and Now Yoik, pp. o.
thoii pioduction taigots woio sot ly total wai and populai nolilization,
noithoi ol which aio on tho hoiizon today.
Classical intoi-inpoiialist conicts, violontly oxpoditing tho ionowal ol
tho syston along now liontiois ol oxpansion, aio no longoi conpatillo
with tho piosoivation ol tho syston. Moving in tho opposito diioction,
tho scalo ol tho hscal ciisis that all statos will lo conlionting, whothoi
piosontly doltois oi not, nay ovontually conpol thon to cut lack on
nilitaiy ludgots, poihaps on a laigo scalo. Ol couiso, this is not ovon on
tho agonda yot in tho 0s, lut il insolvoncy and pullic-soctoi shutdowns
loon, it is haid to soo how this could lo doloiiod indohnitoly. As a iosult,
loi tho tino loing it is voiy unlikoly that tho 0s will vontuio loith in now
iisky, costly oxpoditions, although it will no doult do its lost to naintain
its piosont connitnonts. 'Toiioiisn` is anothoi nattoi, and can lo doalt
with noio choaply. But its liiol nonont ol goo-political signihcanco is
alioady passing, ovon as tho Wost soldiois loith in tho Hindu Kush.
Anctncr cnd cj nistcry?
Wo aio now at tho ond ol an Indian sunnoi ol ioatod Anoiican
inpoiial powoi. What powoi(s will lo allo to uphold and constituto
tho intoiosts ol tho woild capitalist syston as a wholo in tho coning
poiiod? Thoso gonoial intoiosts can only ovoi havo appioxinato onlodi-
nonts in tho hogononic contios that stand in loi this alsont univoisal
dinonsion. Voiy low incunlont powois aio willing to concodo that thoii
paiticulai intoiosts night havo to lo saciihcod to tho univoisal intoi-
osts ol tho laigoi hold ol accunulation. Il no intoi-inpoiialist stiugglo
to dotoinino a now hogonon is possillo, can thoio lo a cooidinatod
nultilatoial dovaluation ol dolts and inatod assots? It is not cloai what
kind ol syston will onoigo il noithoi this noi any lunctional suiiogato
to this piocoss occuis.
Giovanni Aiiighi`s thioo goo-political piojoctions, laid out in Tnc Lcng
Twcntictn Ccntury, woio that tho ight loiwaid into hnancializod noo-
liloialisn would only liing a liiol piolongation ol Anoiican hogonony
and would havo to yiold ovontually to oithoi a Wost-iun glolal onpiio,
an East-inoctod woild naikot-socioty, oi long-toin systonic chaos.

A
lull-odgod voision ol tho hist possilility can piolally lo iulod out. But
zo iv
lollowing tho logic ol Aiiighi`s histoiical naiiativo, tho onoigonco ol a
now hogononic contio soons oqually inpiolallo. Altoi all, oach ol tho
succossivo hogonons in his account was a laigoi and noio advancod
capitalist oconony than tho ono that piocodod it. By that standaid,
thoio is olviously no powoi in tho woild that could supoisodo tho 0s,
noithoi Chinaat piosont a considoially snalloi and noio lackwaid
ocononynoi 'Euiopo`, which is not ovon a stato, and will soon poihaps
login to aloit its histoiically anonalous quasi-statohood. Japan, onco
thought to lo tho nation nost likoly to succood, has long sinco loon
olininatod lion considoiation. Tho nost likoly dovolopnont is a con-
lination ol possililitios ono and thioo: a concoit ol powois to stavo oll
hnancial noltdowns, lut incapallo ol oichostiating a tiansition to a now
phaso ol sustainallo capitalist dovolopnont.
Wo aio ontoiing into a poiiod ol inconclusivo stiugglos lotwoon a
woakonod capitalisn and dispoisod agoncios ol opposition, within
dologitinatod and insolvont political oidois. Tho ond ol histoiy could
lo thought to login whon no piojoct ol glolal scopo is lolt standing,
and a now kind ol 'woildlossnoss` and diilt logins. This would conloin
to Hogol`s suspicion that at this spiiitual toininus, tho past would lo
known, lut that a singulai lutuio night coaso to lo a iolovant catogoiy.
In tho alsonco ol oiganizod political piojocts to luild now loins ol
autononous lilo, tho ongoing ciisis will lo stalkod ly ocological latalitios
that will not lo ovadod ly laltoiing giowth. An olsoivation lion Fiodiic
Janoson at tho onsot ol this ago ol capitalisn still lianos tho piosont:
Conlusion alout tho lutuio ol capitalisnconpoundod ly a conhdonco in
tochnological piogioss locloudod ly intoinittont coitaintios ol catastiopho
and disastoiis at loast as old as tho lato ninotoonth contuiy, lut low poiiods
havo piovod as incapallo ol lianing innodiato altoinativos loi thonsolvos,
lot alono ol inagining thoso gioat Utopias that havo occasionally liokon on
tho status quo liko a sunluist.
z
z
Janoson, Tnc !dcc|cgics cj Tnccry, p. oqq.