Chapter 5) Spreadsheet Engineering

1) Design a. Plan b. Modularize c. Start small d. Parameterize e. Design for use f. Keep it simple g. Design for communication h. Document important data and formulas 2) Build a. Follow a plan (design). b. Build one module at a time. c. Predict the outcome of each formula. d. op! and paste formulas carefull!. e. "se relati#e and absolute addressing to simplif! cop!ing. f. "se the Function $izard to ensure correct s!nta%. g. an use range names so formulas eas! to read. h. hoose input data to ma&e errors stand out. 3) Test a. hec& that numerical results loo& plausible. i. 'est e%tremes( zero) negati#e number) errors b. hec& that formulas are correct. i. Displa! all formulas (formula*show formulas) or control + (on and off). ii. "se the ,%cel -uditing 'ools (e.g. formula*trace precedence). c. 'est that model performance is plausible. i. Desired results are achie#ed.

Chapter 6) overview of spreadsheet analysis

base case analysis: urrent polic!) most li&el! scenario/ less fre0uentl! best or worst case scenarios

what-if (sensitivity) Analyzes how key outputs change with changes in one or more of the inputs May vary a parameter, a decision variable, or the model structure

 tornado charts Measures the sensitivity of results to consistent changes to parameters defined in the model Determines how the output changes based on changes in the inputs Shows which parameters have a major impact on the results and which do not

breakeven analysis Analyzes where a particular point of interest occurs E cel Data !oal Seek is a useful tool"

Optimization o Finds set of decision #ariables that achie#es best possible #alue of an output (which ma! be min or ma%) simulation/risk Analyzes the effect of uncertainty on the output by using statistical distributions and possibly correlations for input data" statistical analysis descriptive! regression! hypothesis tests) #" Descriptive statistics$ Add%in$ Analysis &ool 'ak (mac users)* Data+Data Analysis, pick descriptive statistics or formulas such as A,E-A!E, ,A-.A/0E, etc"

1" -egression analysis$ going beyond (unconditional) means to estimating parameters that link causes and effects 2"

Chapter 7) database development and description

"reating databases Each row is a record (or observation) in the database" Each column is a field (or variable) for the records" &o search and edit lists, important to namedataset

 #inding #acts in databases o Find) Sort) Filter o 'abulating1 P234' '-B5, estimating parameters/use Data $nalysis tools o $e can estimate parameters in two wa!s) with point estimates (e.g. a#erage) and with interval estimates. o 2nter#al estimate1 a range of #alues in which we are fairl! sure that the parameter lies) in addition to a single(#alue point estimate/ utilizes both mean and #ariance (or std. de#).

Chapter

) !egression analysis

%eading a summary regression table o r 6 7 8 positi#e association o r 9 7 8 negati#e association o r close to : (or 8:) implies a strong association o r close to 7 implies a wea& association &hat is a regression doing' (ultiple data pts! coe##icients parameters)! variables &he process of using data to estimate relationships is known as regression analysis" ,stimate parameters of a line such as a) b based on minimizing s0uared errors) ,stimate standard errors (not deri#ed) arr! out h!pothesis tests an see estimates) standard errors) and whether coefficients are ;significantl! different from zero< in table. an predict = using full e0uation (and its standard error) R2: Measures the percent of #ariation in the e%planator! #ariable accounted for b! the regression model. Confidence interval: >i#es a range within which the true regression coefficient lies with gi#en significance (default ?@/ can choose). Standard error of parameter (coefficient)1 Std. error onl! of that coeff. t #alue1 (coeff*std error) used to test of significance whether the coeff is statisticall! different from zero (e%act #alue gi#en b! P #alue) p-value: Measures the probabilit! of obser#ing the gi#en estimate of the regression coefficient (or a larger #alue) positi#e or negati#e) when the true coefficient is zero (null of zero). )imple * multiple regressions model! ho+ to! output) o Aegression models that in#ol#e one e%planator! #ariable (B) for a = are called simple regressions

o $hen two or more e%planator! #ariables (BCs) are in#ol#ed) the relationships are called multiple regressions or more generall!) Dust regressions. o Aegression models are also di#ided into linear and nonlinear models

Chapter ") #orecasting

timeseries ,) regression o Aegression anal!sis can sometimes be useful in short(term and long term anal!sis and forecasting based on underlying causeso -n alternative approach is to base the forecast of a #ariable on its o+n history) thereb! a#oiding the need to specif! a causal relationship and to predict the #alues of e%planator! #ariables. $idel! used for routine SE4A'(',AM forecasting moving average o 'he n(period moving average builds a forecast b! a#eraging the obser#ations in the most recent n periods (n is F of time periods)1 o Selection of n1 shorter) follows current data more closel!/ longer smoothens changes o MS,1 the Mean S0uared ,rror between forecast and actual o M-D1 the Mean -bsolute De#iation between forecast and actual o M-P,1 the Mean -bsolute Percent ,rror between forecast and actual e.ponential smoothing o ,%ponential smoothing weighs recent obser#ations more than older ones to create ;smoothed< #alue o 'he parameter is some number between zero and one) the smoothing constant; higher more weight on recent. o 'he ,%ponential Smoothing module resembles the Mo#ing -#erage module) but instead of as&ing for the number of periods) it asks for the damping factor, which is the complement of the smoothing factor, or (1 !.