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EngineMROTrendsin AsiaPacific
YenPu PaulChen
Director,ForecastsandAnalytics AviationWeek
1
Asiahasemergedasaheavyweightinaviation
Aviation Week Top 10 Airframe MROs Aviation Week Top 20 Performing Airlines
$
STAerospace Haeco/Taeco/Staeco Malaysian AerospaceEng SIAEngineeringCo. AFIKLME&M AARCorp. IAI/BedekAviation Group Aveos EgyptAir Maintenance&Eng ADAT/SRTechnics
* Based on total airframe man hours
$5
$10
AirAsia AirArabia RyanairHoldings HainanAirlines Allegiant TransasiaAirways VuelingAirlines Copa SingaporeAirlines WestJetAirlines AllNipponAirways RegionalExpress AerLingus AlaskaAirGroup SpiritAirlines Easyjet QantasAirways CebuAir DeutscheLufthansa GarudaIndonesia
50
100
* Based on score on financial health, liquidity, fuel management, financial health, earnings perform, asset utilization
Theworldsgrowthpowerhouse
Asiaseconomicgrowthtrends
China:Softlanding in2012,GDPreboundin2013 Japan:Recoveryseeneasingsomewhatin2013,but GDPgrowthremainshealthy Korea:propelledbyconstructioninvestments,U.S.free tradeagreement ChinadirectinvestmentinAfricancountriespropels additionaltrafficandflows Regionwide,tourismgains WesternaerospaceownershipsareshiftingtoAsia
Keyquestions
WhatisthestateoftheAsianmarketatpresentandwhat arethefactorspromptingitsimpressivegrowth? HowwillthenewaircraftordersimpacttheengineMRO sectorandhowwilldemandchangethrough2021?
Predictionofthefuture:Arollercoasterride
Units aircraft
35,000
30,000
2018
2019
Asiarankshighintrafficgrowth
Capacity Capacity+4.5% +4.5%
ASKs ASKs+4.4% +4.4%
1 1
Departures Departures+2.5% +2.5%
2 2
Block BlockHours Hours+3.8% +3.8%
1 1
* Including China and India, Q3-Q4, 2012 vs. 2011, based on aircraft domiciled region. Source: OAG Schedules
6
2 2
Worldairlinesoperationstrends
15% 10%
6.1% 5.2% 8.9% 7.4% 5.7% 3.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.7% 5.6% 4.0% 2.4%
ASKs
10.4%
4yearCAGR YOYCAGR
15% 10%
Departures
8.0% 5.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1.2% 1.2% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 4.4% 7.2%
5% 0% 5%
2.9%
3.9%
4.7%
5% 0% 5%
4.2% 5.4%
5.5%
10%
India China Africa LAmerica NAmerica World AsiaPacific MiddleEast EEurope WEurope
10%
China India Africa LAmerica NAmerica AsiaPacific Middle East EEurope WEurope World World
15% 10%
15% 10%
3.8% 0.6%
Block Time
8.8% 7.3% 4.6% 3.3% 8.7% 4.8% 6.7% 5.5% 2.9%
Capacity
7.1% 4.8% 3.6% 2.1% 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 8.0%
5% 0%
3.2%
3.1% 0.4%
2.1%
2.8%
2.7% 1.9%
5% 0%
0.4% 0.7%
0.2%
5% 10%
5.1%
4.6%
5% 10%
2.7%
1.6%
China
Africa
China
India
India
LAmerica
Africa
NAmerica
LAmerica
AsiaPacific
Middle East
AsiaPacific
Middle East
NAmerica
EEurope
World
WEurope
EEurope
Source: OAG Schedules. Q3/Q4 of each year Passenger jets and turboprops
WEurope
Worldwidetrend:largerequipment,moreseats perdeparture
Average capacity (Seats)
176
+12
164 160 162 161 154 142
+11
China
India
Africa
Latin America
MiddleEast
AsiaPacific
Western Europe
Source: OAG Schedules. Q3/Q4 of each year Passenger jets and turboprops
World Average
North America
Eastern Europe
Andlongerflights
Stage Length (km)
+127
India
North America
MiddleEast
Source: OAG Schedules. Q3/Q4 of each year Passenger jets and turboprops
GrandTotal
AsiaPacific
Western Europe
Latin America
China
Eastern Europe
Africa
Regionaloperationstrends 2008
2008
Average Stage Length (miles)
1,250
1,000
750
500
Western Europe
Latin America
India
China
250 100
125
150
175
Source: OAG Schedules. Q3/Q4 of each year Passenger jets and turboprops
10
Regionaloperationstrends 2012
2012
Average Stage Length (miles)
1,250
North America
1,000
Africa
Eastern Europe
750
Western Europe
Latin America
India
China
500
250 100
125
150
175
Source: OAG Schedules. Q3/Q4 of each year Passenger jets and turboprops
11
Airlinesinallregionssharesimilardirectionsince economiccrisis
Net change in average stage length (miles) per departure
150
W Europe
100
China N America
Middle East
E Europe
50
Africa Asia Pacific China E Europe India L America Middle East N America W Europe
0 5
Asia Pacific
10
15
50
Net change in average capacity per departure 2012 vs. 2008
Source: OAG Schedules. Q3/Q4 of each year Passenger jets and turboprops
12
Jetsretireatyoungerages
35
NARROWBODY JETS WIDEBODY JETS
Factorsaffecting retirement:
Rapidtechnology advancement Operatingeconomics Residualvalue Earlypartout Lastofthelineeffects Versatilityand flexibility,e.g., passengertofreighter conversionoptions
30
25
20
15
13
Anotherlookattheretirementtrends
100% 75%
25%
0%
100%
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Passengerjets retirementagesshow moremovement towardsyoungerage thanfreighters Narrowbody retirementages decreasedmorethan widebodypassenger jets
75%
50%
25%
0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
14
40
45
Worldfleetisexpectedtogrowto33,500in2021
Aircraft unit
Installedbase CumulativeDeliveries
15
Moredeliveriesareforgrowthratherthan replacement
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Growth Replacement RetainedFleet
Retained 16,400
16
Asiawilltake38%of8,000+jetsonorder
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Unknown Africa
Africa
100%
Africa
E Europe
80
Morethan2,000 Africa NBforregional Middle East growth,startup, E Europe lowcost L America W Nearly800WBto continueWB dominance
Europe
N America
60
Asia
20
Asia
Asia
NB
17
WB
RJ
Beyondfirmorders,Asiaislikelytotake6,000+ jets,retire800+by2021
RETIREMENT INCREMENTALDELIVERY FIRMORDER
750
500
StrongregionalGDP growthwillresultin sustainableaircraft deliveriesthroughout forecasthorizon Amountoffuture ordersareexpected tomatchthefront loadedfirmordersas of2012
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
250
(250)
18
2/3ofAsiadeliverieswillbeWB,whichaccount for40%ofallWBdeliveries
7%
RJ
40%
2012
NB
WB
30% RJ NB WB
30%
63%
20%
7%
10%
28%
2021
RJ NB WB
65%
As % of world
Source: Aviation Week
19
Asianfleet:highsharesinmostpopularaircraft families
Aircraft Engine
Asia
OtherRegions
Asia
OtherRegions
A320/321/330
V2500A/D
777
TRENT7/8/9/1000
737 3/4/5/6/7/8/9
CFM563/7
20
Asia:Youngestfleetintheworld
Age
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Africa Asia EEurope L Middle N W America East America Europe
21
2012
14.5 12.4
2021
15.7 14.3
FleetinAsiais generallyyounger thusless retirementsare expectedthan otherregions Asaresult, averagefleetage inAsiawill increase
* Jets only
Theagefactor:determineswhenengineshop visitskickin
2012
100% 50% 56% 0%
Asia Other 7+years 07years
In2012,56%ofaircraftin Asiahavelessthan7years inservice,comparedwith 34%inotherregions In2021,49%ofaircraftin Asiahavelessthan7years inservice,comparedwith 38%inotherregions EngineMROdemandinAsia willincreaseoverthenext 10yearswhenmorefirst shopvisitskickin
22
34%
2021
100% 50% 49% 0%
Asia
* Jets only
7+years 07years
38%
Other
V2500-A5
ShopvisitSpend
30 25 20 15
6.8%
5 4 4 3 3 2
10 5
2 1 1
0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
23
0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
ExpectworldMROtogrowfrom$49Bin2012to $69Bin2021
$B
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2012 2021 21 11
LAmerica EEurope WEurope NAmerica MiddleEast AsiaPacific Africa
$B
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
30
10 0 2012 2021
19
AsiaengineMROoutlook:from$4.4Bin2012to $9.6Bin2021at9%CAGR
$B
25
Modifications Components LineMx AirframeHeavyMx Engine
Shop visits
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000
20
15
3,784
10
1,500 1,000
9.6 4.4
1,727
500 0
2012
2021
Enginespendwillgrowtobecomemore concentratedonfewermodels
Other Top5
2012 Top 5: CFM56-7 CF6-80C2 V2500-A5 RB211-535 CFM56-3 2021 Top 5: CFM56-7 V2500-A5 GE90-115B CFM56-5B TRENT700 2012 Top 5: CFM56-7 Other TRENT800 Top5 PW4000-94 CF6-80C2 V2500-A5 2021 Top 5: CFM56-5B TRENT700 GE90-115B CFM56-7 V2500-A5
100%
40% 56%
60% 44%
67% 25% 0%
2012 2021
50%
World
* Jets only
26
Asia
Andthepredictionsare
Asia AsiaEngine Engine MRO spend MRO spend
No.1 No.1
Asia AsiaTotal Total MRO spend MRO spend
No.1 No.1
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
No.1 No.1
2018 2019 2020 2021
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
27
2017
Challenges
HowdoMROs inAsia TakeadvantageofAsiamarketsspecificcharacteristics Penetratewesternmarket Maintaincompetitivenesswhenlaborratesarerising,and competitionsfromotheremergingregionssuchasEastern Europeiscatchingon Increaseengineeringcontentsofserviceoffering,to providevalueadded,completesolutions Expandservicenetworktoestablishaglobalpresence MaximizemarginsinmarketswhereOEMmaintain dominanceinpartssupplies ApplyContinuousImprovementtoreduceTATand optimizecapacityutilization
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