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Preferred stocks
Big benefits from policy changes
Contents
I. Preferred stocks were strictly sidelined..... 2 II. Cross-country comparison of preferred stock discount ............................................................ 6 III. Discount factors are disappearing ....... 10 IV. Merits of preferred stocks to draw attention ........................................................................ 16 V. Top picks ..................................................................... 20
JJ Park
82-2-3276-6560 jj.park@truefriend.com
Contents
Issue report
Note: Relative price of preferred stocks (top 50 by market cap) =preferred stock prices/common stock prices (for preferred stocks in top 50 market cap group) Source: Korea Investment & Securities
Issue report
Cumulative preferred stock Dividend accumulation Non-cumulative preferred stock Participating preferred stock Participation Non-participating preferred stock Voting rights Preferred stock with voting rights Preferred stock without voting rights Convertible preferred stock Convertibility/ redeemability Redeemable preferred stock
Source: Korea Investment & Securities, Analysis of Determinants in Price Gap between Preferred Stocks and Common Stocks by Lee Sang-il (2011)
2) Active period (1986 to Feb 1990): Emergence of 1% preferred stock without voting rights
Source: Analysis of Determinants in Price Gap between Preferred Stocks and Common Stocks by Lee Sang-il (2011)
Issue report
1) Overly neglected by investors due to non-voting status Preferred stocks with non-voting rights were very ignored by investors as hostile M&A attempts and the succession of management rights became headline issues in Koreas stock market. Non-voting preferred stocks went through the first round of de-rating in 1994 when the raised limit on foreign ownership and repeal of the 10% ownership ceiling in a general corporation upon the amendment to the Securities and Exchange Act in Jan stoked concerns about hostile M&A attempts. Non-voting preferred stocks were even considered non-stocks by market investors. The price difference between preferred stocks and common widened to as much as 75% during the IMF bailout. After brief ups and downs, the relative price of preferred stocks compared to common has been on a downturn since 2007. Non-voting preferred stocks were left out of investors interest as corporate governance and stable management rights became issues in Koreas stock market. In reality, there were only limited cases of foreign investors making hostile M&A attempts toward Korean companies as seen in the management threat to SK Corp. from Sovereign Asset Management. But voting rights became a very critical concern for investing in Korean companies, which we attribute to their relatively weak management transparency.
Table 3. Price gap between preferred and common stocks
Key factors for determining preferred stocks price gap Preferred stocks price gap to common = value of voting rights (corporate transparency) dividend yield
Source: Korea Investment & Securities
Basically, the price gap between preferred and common stocks reflects the value of voting rights, which is closely correlated with corporate transparency. That is, the value of voting rights represents different accessibility to EV between controlling and minority shareholders. With no-voting rights attached, preferred stockholders have much weaker accessibility to EV than holders of common stocks. Much research suggests a 2-37% premium is placed on the voting rights in the global market, or 2-20% in advanced countries where transparent management is in place. With greater transparency, the controlling shareholders' private profits shrink and minority shareholders' opportunity costs significantly diminish. That in turn narrows the difference in EV enjoyed by the two parties. But the controlling shareholders of Koreas conglomerates had a habit of awarding excessive orders to affiliates as a way to maximize private wealth. In addition, the controlling shareholders took advantage of the circular ownership structure to control the entire group with a tiny stake and to use the business for private interest. The abusive practices of the controlling shareholders were a major cause of the so-called Korea discount. Minority shareholders can oppose any controlling shareholders decision that may undermine corporate transparency by exercising voting rights at the general shareholders meeting. A lack of the voting rights can put preferred stockholders at a disadvantage compared to common stockholders, which leads to a price discount. The concerns are deepening with some companies buying back only common stocks, not preferred, when they decided to support share prices with buybacks.
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2) Weak appeal as a dividend vehicle Koreas preferred stocks lost much of their appeal to investors due to the features such as fixed additional dividend of 1% (e.g., W50 for W5,000 par value) and non-cumulative dividend payment. To offset the disadvantages owed to non-voting rights, it is essential to offer policies to enhance shareholder value, such as a lofty dividend, but the additional 1% was not attractive enough to draw investors interest to preferred stocks. Furthermore, the old preferred stocks do not ensure a stable dividend payment due to their non-cumulative feature. As preferred stocks lost appeal to long-term investors as a dividend vehicle, there was nothing to buttress the prices when the stock market went through a downturn period. Common stocks can rebound on bargain-hunting demand although the stock market is trending downward, but preferred stocks are neglected, resulting in high price volatility.
Table 4. Key features of old preferred stocks currently in circulation
Description 1% dividend Non-cumulative - When a company decides to pay a common stock dividend, a 1%p based on face value (W5,000 in face value would see an additional W50 per share) is added to the common stock dividend and then paid - Holders would not receive missed dividends but they would receive dividends in a given year if the company decides to pay dividends the same year Outcome Low dividend appeal Low dividend stability
3) Limited trading volume and investors disinterest not causes but consequences It is true that small trading liquidity and disinterest among investors have led to a lengthy de-rating of preferred stocks. But the problems are not causes but the consequences of preferred stocks poor share performance. That is, constant share price drops undermined trading liquidity and investors interest in preferred stocks, which created a vicious cycle by dragging the prices down further.
Issue report
Our analysis is on preferred stocks with discriminatory voting rights and dividend and non-convertible feature
Sweden
Brazil
Mexico
US
UK
Canada
South Africa
Australia
France
Denmark
Norway
Common law
Note: 1) Preferred stock discount=100(preferred stock price/common stock price*100) 2) Based on 2002 data Source: Nenova (2002), Korea Investment & Securities
Germany
Korea
Chile
Italy
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Price gaps varied by country: A much wider gap in French civil law countries
Although more than a decade has passed, Nenovas report still resonates and presents important implications. According to the report, first, preferred stocks trade at a discount to common in most countries. Second, the price gap varies by country. For example, the gap was less than 5% in the US, Canada, Denmark and Sweden whereas it was as wide as 50% in Korea. Third, the legal environment appears to affect the price gap. The magnitude of price difference varied widely even across developed countries, and the gap was much wider in French civil law countries. According to Nenovas analysis, the price gap was lowest for the Scandinavian civil law group of countries, followed by common law countries, German civil law countries and French civil law countries. The report says that such a minimal discount to preferred stocks in Scandinavian civil law countries was because the legal environment and social norms discourage the controlling parties from abusing the minority. In contrast, the price gap was wide in French civil law countries where investor protection is weaker. As such, the legal protection of investors and minority shareholders would be a key variable to the price gap between preferred and common stocks.
Figure 4. Rank of investor protection in the World Banks Doing Business survey
(rank) 90 80 2012 2013
Governance structure and investor protection by law are key variables to the price gap between preferred and common stocks
Figure 3. Price gap between preferred and common stocks by legal origin
(%) 25
20
70 60 50
15
10
40 30
20 10
0 French civil law German civil law Common law Scandinavian civil law 0 France Italy Korea
Of note, Koreas legal environment for investor protection has fast improved recently. The World Bank has worked out an investor protection index in its Doing Business survey. Korea made a great leap from 79th, similar to France, in 2012 to 49th in 2013 in terms of investor protection. Although there is a still long way to go, we view such rapid improvement in Korea as encouraging. Then to what degree could the legal environment such as a corporate governance mechanism and investor protection affect the preferred stocks discount? Nenova suggests the legal environment variables explain 68% of the cross-country variation in the value of preferred stocks. That is, the price gap will narrow when there is a refined legal framework such as tighter enforcement, better general investor protection, stricter takeover regulations and less use of corporate charter provisions concentrating control in the hands of dominant shareholders. For example, Nenovas analysis showed that the price gap was largest in Korea at 48%, and the gap would be reduced by 17%p with law enforcement, 11%p with investor protection, 12%p by takeover regulations and 3%p by corporate charter provisions (together 43%p). Given the analysis, the preferred stocks discount to common in Korea could ease from 48% to 5% if the legal environment is improved to match the level of developed countries.
If legal environment improves dramatically, Korean preferred stocks discount to common could ease from 48% to 5%
Issue report
Figure 5. Price gap between preferred and common stocks in Korea and influence by legal environment variable
(%, %p) 60 50 40 30 Inv estor protection: 11%p 20 Takeov er regulation: 12%p 10 Corporate charter prov isions: 3%p 0 Price gap (common stock price-pref . stock price) Af ter ref ined legal f ramework Law enf orcement: 17%p
Note: 1) Price gap = 1 - (preferred stock price/common stock price) 2) Based on 2002 data Source: Nenova (2002), Korea Investment & Securities
400 300 Crawford family 57.9% Suntrust Banks Inc. 6.11% 200
Blackrock 6.28%
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Price gap between Crawfords preferred and common stocks fluctuates along with market conditions
Theoretically, Crawfords Class A Common Stock does not deserve a discount to Class B Common Stock because of the companys very stable governance structure with a near-60% majority shareholder s stake and a sizable market cap (80% of Class B) of preferred stocks (Class A). Since Class A shares offer a 1%p higher dividend yield than Class B, it would be no surprise if the preferred stocks trade at a premium to the common. We examined how the price gap between Crawfords preferred and common stocks trended since 1991. In 1994-1997 and in 2004-2006, the gap was near zero or preferred stocks traded at higher prices than common. Interestingly, the two periods coincide with when the economy was relatively stable after a recession. In contrast, Crawfords preferred stocks traded at much lower prices than common when the economy was shaky in the early 1990s, early 2000s and after 2008.
During economic instability, Crawfords preferred stocks are discounted due to less effective reflection of inside information
Then, how does economic instability lead to a discount for Crawfords preferred stocks that are the same as common, other than with respect to voting rights, despite the stable governance structure? The answer lies in the markets view that common stocks held by majority shareholders reflect information faster than preferred stocks at a time of large external uncertainties. Since investors believe a companys inside information is faster reflected in common stocks, they pay a premium over common.
Figure 8. Price gap between Crawfords preferred and common stocks
(%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Investment on Koreas preferred stocks promising as financial crisis-related uncertainties subsided and the nations institutions are fast improving
Based on Nenovos report and Crawfords example, the price gap between preferred and common stocks tends to narrow with a better corporate governance structure, stronger investor protection and less economic uncertainties. If that is true, then there is a good chance the price gap will likely shrink worldwide. That is because the uncertainties that have been fueled by the global financial crisis since 2008 are gradually being addressed albeit at a very moderate pace. In particular, serious consideration is needed for Corporate Koreas preferred stocks since they used to post the widest price gap with common due to the conglomerates ownership structure and legal and institutional issues. As illustrated by the World Banks Doing Business 2013, Korea is fast improving in terms of its corporate governance and investor protection. Despite such positive changes, preferred stocks are now valued less than in 2002 with the price gap expanded to 64.6% now.
Issue report
Wooree Lighting Holdings Jan 1, 2010 Kolon Corp. CS Holdings Humax Holdings SJM Holdings Hanmi Science Jan 1, 2010 Jan 5, 2010 Mar 31, 2010 Jan 1, 2011 Jan 1, 2011
Daesung Group Holdings Jan 1, 2011 BS Financial Group DGB Financial Group Samyang Holdings InterPark Corp. Nice Holdings AK Holdings Mar 15, 2011 May 7, 2011 Nov 3, 2011 Jan 1, 2012 Aug 23, 2012 Sep 1, 2012
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2) New administrations better transparency policy empowers minority shareholders The preferred stock discount is owed to the difference in voting rights value between controlling and minority shareholders. The value is important for a company facing a hostile takeover. However, what it fundamentally represents is each shareholder partys accessibility to EV that is linked to corporate transparency. Similar to their peers in developed countries, majority shareholders in Korea enjoyed surplus profits, which were not shared with minority shareholders, via a management rights premium when selling their companies. Not only that, controlling shareholders have often been cited as maximizing private profits through the practice of unfairly awarding affiliate orders to a company they set up. Such opaque transparency gave rise to a different level of accessibility between controlling and minority shareholders. That in turn led to an excessive price plunge for preferred stocks whose rights are not guaranteed due to the lack of voting rights. But on Mar 28, the new administration proposed economic democracy as one of the four economic policy directions along with jobs creation, livelihood security and risk management. Policies for economic democracy include a ban on conglomerates practice of unfair internal trade among affiliates, reinforced measures for pension/public funds voting rights execution, introduction of a multiple derivative action system and phase-in of the cumulative/electronic voting systems. As the new administrations corporate policy focuses on empowering minority shareholders and improving corporate transparency, such efforts will considerably narrow the price gap between preferred and common stocks.
Table 6. Four major economic policies
Jobs creation Aggressive management of macro policies Tasks Establish favorable conditions for the dual economic drivers of domestic demand and exports Improve employment-friendly policies
Source: Korea Investment & Securities
Stabilize public welfare Stabilize consumer prices Ease financial, housing and education burdens of low-income households Enhance customized welfare system
Economic democracy Bolster management transparency and responsibility Provide a system for fair competition Protect the economically weak
Enhance risk management Strengthen risk response plans Provide tools to counter each risk factor
First, the practice of affiliates awarding orders to a company governed by their controlling shareholder is a good example of controlling shareholders maximizing their profits at the cost of minority shareholders profit erosion. Such a practice will likely be strictly regulated by imposing gift taxes, expanding the items defined as unfair affiliate aid and adopting a multiple derivative action system.
Table 7. Multiple derivative actions
Policy Description - Intended for shareholders that have held more than 5/100,000 of total shares in a parent company for more than six months - Shareholders of a parent company that suffered losses due to illegal activities by a subsidiary can file a lawsuit against the board directors of the subsidiary - Under current law, shareholders of a parent company can file a lawsuit against the management of its subsidiary but the multiple derivative action (double derivative action) allows shareholders to bring a derivate suit against a grandchild company as well
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In particular, a derivative action allows shareholders to file a lawsuit against the companys directors and/or employees for the companys losses triggered by their illegal action. For example, let us say a parent companys controlling shareholder established a subsidiary and used it to generate private profits. In that case, a minority shareholder of the parent company can impose a sanction due to the practice. The same can be done even if the involved company was a sub-subsidiary. At present, a bill to adopt the multiple derivative lawsuit system is being proposed to the National Assembly. Once the system is introduced, a minority shareholder of a parent company can file a damages claim on behalf of a subsidiary/sub-subsidiary against a controlling shareholder s private profiteering. Second, the electronic and cumulative voting systems are very effective in strengthening minority shareholders profits. A phase-in of the systems would bring a significant change to minority shareholders participation in the execution of management rights. 1) The electronic voting system is an alternative to the shadow system which reflects the voting rights of minority shareholders who are absent at a shareholders meeting in proportion to the votes cast by the shareholders present at the meeting. The electronic voting system will make it easier for minority shareholders who are not present at the meeting to exercise their rights. 2) When electing two or more board directors, the cumulative voting system grants each share an identical number of voting rights as the number of board directors to be elected. As the system allows minority shareholders to cast all their votes to a single candidate, it increases the chance for a candidate who represents minority shareholders profits to win the election. At present, only 34 or 5% of Kospi-listed firms have adopted the system.
Table 8. Key policy directions of the new administration
Policy Description - When electing two or more directors, shareholders may cast votes equal to the number of shares owned multiplied by the number of directors to be elected - Minority shareholders can pool their votes to elect a director who can represent their interests - No. of listed companies that have adopted cumulative voting: Kospi 34 (4.79%) and Kosdaq 27 (3.03%) - If policy measures are finalized in 1H13, a public hearing will be held in Aug to enforce the adoption of cumulative voting - Allows minority shareholders who cannot attend a shareholders meeting to exercise their votes online - Cuts the cost of holding a shareholders meeting and can prevent major shareholders from making one-sided decisions by encouraging shareholders, including minority, to participate in the shareholders meeting - No. of listed companies that have adopted electronic voting: Kospi 74 (10.42%) and Kosdaq 71 (7.98%) - If policy measures are finalized in 1H13, a public hearing will be held in Aug to enforce the adoption of electronic voting
Cumulative voting
Electronic voting
Third, the government has amended the Commerce Law over the past two years to improve corporate transparency. Related efforts include tax revision to levy gift taxes on controlling shareholders who profited from the practice of unfair internal trades, prohibiting business opportunity appropriation and expanding the definition of directors2 in restricting trade with their own companies.
Directors earlier meant only board members but now include major shareholders and special-interest parties. Such measures have legally stipulated controlling shareholders can no longer seek private profits via affiliates, which before was routine. As minority shareholders profits will no longer be eroded by the controlling shareholders unfair practices, the difference in the value of their voting rights should narrow considerably.
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Favoritism toward subsidiaries/affiliates allows major shareholders to make unfair profits and erodes the value of minority shareholders
Source: Korea Investment & Securities, Presentation of main revisions to the Commercial Law for companies (Ministry of Justice, Apr 2011), Trends in Capital Market System (Capital market analyst Kim Su-yeon, May 2011)
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3. Healthy preferred stocks to draw attention with the implementation of unqualified preferred stock withdrawal system in Jul
Introduction of the new system should prompt reassessment of preferred stocks and shed a new light on healthy stocks For investors, preferred stocks have not been an easy investment to trade due to their poor liquidity even considering their low market cap. But we believe such weak liquidity is the outcome of the stocks pullback. In 1993 and 1997 when preferred stocks were much favored by investors, their weighting of trading value in the Kospis total was large at 7% and 5%, respectively. But now, the figure is less than 2%. Given the shallow ownership of preferred stocks among major shareholders, the weighting of the shares that can be easily put on the market is heavy. Nevertheless, the trading value of preferred stocks is low for their market cap, and we believe the main reason is weak share prices. But if the stocks are properly reassessed in line with share price gains, the liquidity concern should ease substantially.
Figure 9. Trading value: Preferred stocks vs. Kospi
8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Dec-93 Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08 Dec-11
In addition, preferred stocks with poor liquidity will probably be designated as administrative issues or even delisted starting from this Jul. At present, some stocks with low market cap and scarce trading volume are experiencing sharp price fluctuations, which we believe contributes to investors distorted perception of preferred stocks. Under the new system, stocks with less than 100 shareholders in the business report, less than 50,000 listed shares as of the end of half-year, less than 10,000 monthly trading volume in a half-year or market cap remaining below W500mn for 30 straight days would be designated as administrative issues. Conditions for delisting would be the delisting of common stocks, less than 100 shareholders for two straight years, less than 50,000 listed shares for two straight half-years, or less than 10,000 monthly trading volume for two straight half-years. With the new rules, the overall undervaluation of preferred stocks due to the extreme movement of only a few should ease considerably.
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* (no. of trading days in a half-year / no. of trading days for a given company in a half-year) x total trading volume in a half-year / 6 ** Specified condition: Market cap stays above W500mn for 10 straight days and for more than 30 days during the 90 days after being designated as an administrative issue Source: KRX, Financial News
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Note: 1) 2012 DPS 2) Apr 4, 2013 close Source: Korea Investment & Securities
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(%)
LG H&H NM 105.51 30.17 -15.47 -7.59 103.57 124.14 50.98 -9.44 60.11 32.36 28.64 35.97 44.9 Doosan Corp. -32.59 6.28 -52.82 29.89 -10.09 183.90 51.96 232.17 -48.34 -8.08 69.23 -7.94 -14.66 30.7
AmorePacific AmorePacific pref. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg. NM NM NM NM NM NM 10.41 -5.74 -50.21 91.72 4.65 -12.34 39.29 11.1 NM NM NM NM NM NM 46.23 21.31 -13.78 42.48 15.18 -0.27 16.59 18.2
Annual avg. return for the past 13 years Preferr ed Commo n 26.7 25.4
Note: Annual returns include cash dividends as of Dec 26 of each year Source: Korea Investment & Securities
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1,295.7 (187.4)
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V. Top picks
1. Top pick selecting criteria: Dividend yield, price gap with common stocks, market cap and financial structure
Chose top picks considering dividend yield, price gap and market cap The prices of preferred stocks are closely correlated with their associated common shares. But we selected attractive preferred stocks considering dividend yield, the price gap with common stocks and valuation, sufficient market cap for investment and stable financial structure. Based on the criteria, we chose the preferred stocks of seven companies Samsung Electronics, Doosan Corp., Woori Investment & Securities, SK Innovation, LG Chem, Samsung F&M and Hyundai Motor as our top picks. The stocks offer an average dividend yield of 4.7%, attractive valuation with a 60.4% price gap with the common stocks and market caps worth W71.3bn-20trn.
Table 15. Top preferred stock picks
Code 005935 005385 051915 000815 000155 005945 096775 Stock Samsung Electronics pref. Hyundai Motor pref. LG Chem pref. Samsung F&M pref. Doosan Corp. pref. Woori Investment & Securities pref. SK Innovation pref. Market cap 20,002,082 2,016,332 682,788 263,021 185,927 86,618 71,285 Dividend yield 0.9% 2.6% 4.7% 4.6% 8.3% 6.4% 5.6%
(W mn)
Price gap Debt-to-equity 42.2% 63.9% 64.8% 62.3% 66.9% 60.1% 62.5% 49.05% 153.64% 54.02% 426.89% 85.78% 618.73% 106.94%
Note: 1) Based on 2012 DPS 2) Apr 4 close 3) Excluded Hyundai Securities 2-preferred B as it has the features of a common stock with voting rights Source: Korea Investment & Securities
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Note: 1) Based on 1-preferred share prices 2) Apr 4 close 3) AmorePacific Group excluded due to almost nil trading volume Source: Korea Investment & Securities
Price gap 60.1% 71.6% 77.0% 62.1% 74.4% 42.3% 66.1% 77.2% 73.3% 62.5% 60.0% 39.9% 72.4% 69.9% 58.9%
Note: Excluded Ssangyong Cement Industry 4-preferred B as stocks were given voting rights due to unpaid dividends Source: Korea Investment & Securities
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The contents of this report accurately reflect the analysts views. Under no circumstances were there any external pressures or intervention during the analysis process or the preparation of this report. This report was written by Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. to help its clients invest in securities. This material is copyrighted and may not be copied, redistributed, forwarded or altered in any way without the consent of Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared by Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. We make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. The company accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. The final investment decision is based on the clients judgment, and this report cannot be used as evidence in any legal dispute related to invest ment decisions.
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