A.P.

Statistics
Understanding Type I & Type II Errors
Name __________________________ Hour _______ Remember the o!!o"ing chart# The Actua! State o Nature Ho Is True H$ Is %a!se Type ' Error (orrect decision (orrect decision Type II Error

Re&ect Ho Accept H$ ')

Under the &ury tria! system emp!oyed in the United States* a person is assumed innocent unti! pro+en gui!ty. (onse,uent!y* the nu!! and a!ternati+e hypothesis are as o!!o"s# H$# the person being tried is innocent Ha# the person being tried is gui!ty a) -hat type o error is committed "hen a gui!ty person is ound innocent. E/p!ain your ans"er. a)__Type II_______

b) -hat type o error is committed "hen an innocent person is &udged gui!ty. E/p!ain your ans"er. b)__Type '_______

c) -hich o the Type ' or Type II errors do you be!ie+e our &ustice system considers to be the more serious mista0e. E/p!ain your ans"er. c)_Type '________

1)

An automobi!e manu acturer is e+a!uating a ne" p!astic or use in the manu acture o its bumper. As part o the e+a!uation process* it tests the o!!o"ing hypothesis. H$# the strength o the p!astic bumper does not e/ceed that o the present!y used meta! bumper. Ha# the p!astic bumper is stronger. a) I the p!astic bumper is "ea0er* and the manu acturer decides that it is stronger* "hich type o error has been committed. E/p!ain your ans"er. a)__Type I_______

b)

I it is decided that the p!astic bumper is not stronger* but in rea!ity it is* "hich type o error has been committed. E/p!ain your ans"er. b)_Type II________

2)

A pharmaceutica! company conducts an in+estigation o t"o pain re!ie+ers* A and 3* or the treatment o migraine headaches. It tests the o!!o"ing hypothesis. H$# A and 3 are e,ua!!y e ecti+e Ha# A is more e ecti+e a) -hat decision "ou!d resu!t in a Type I error. E/p!ain your ans"er. If we conclude hat A is more effective than B, when, in fact, it is not

b) -hat decision "ou!d resu!t in a Type II error. E/p!ain your ans"er. If we were to conclude that A and B are equally effective, when, in fact, A is more effective.

4)

A go+ernment agency has recei+ed numerous comp!aints that a particu!ar restaurant has been se!!ing under"eight hamburgers. As part o its in+estigation* it tests the o!!o"ing hypotheses. H5# the restaurant is not se!!ing under"eight hamburgers Ha# the restaurant is se!!ing under"eight hamburgers a) A Type I error "i!! occur i "hat conc!usion is dra"n. E/p!ain your ans"er. If we were to incorrectly conclude that the restaurant is selling underweight hamburgers. b) -hat conc!usion "i!! resu!t in a Type II error. E/p!ain your ans"er. If we were to incorrectly conclude that the restaurant is not selling underweight hamburgers. c) -hich error "ou!d the restaurant consider to be more serious. The restaurant would consider a Type 1 error to be the most serious.

6)

A manu acturer o a rechargeab!e !ash!ight current!y uses a battery "ith a mean charge !i e o 6 hours. It is considering a change to a ne" type o battery. a) -hat set o hypotheses "ou!d the manu acturer test i the ne" battery "i!! be adopted on!y i it is sho"n to ha+e a !onger charge !i e. H ! =6 Ha! > 6 b) Suppose the ne" battery costs !ess* and the manu acturer "i!! adopt it un!ess e+idence suggests that its a+erage charge !i e is in erior. -hat set o hypotheses "ou!d the manu acturer test. H ! =6 Ha! < 6

7)

The speed o a persona! computer is measured by its c!oc0 speed* "hich indicates ho" ast its centra! processing unit 8(PU) can process data. A computer manu acturer no" se!!s a des0top computer "hose nomina! operating speed is 1$$ 9H: 8megahert:* "hich is one mi!!ion cyc!es per second). a) -hat set o hypotheses shou!d be tested i the manu acturer "ants to demonstrate that the mean speed actua!!y e/ceeds the nomina! speed o 1$$ 9H:. H ! = 1$$ Ha! > 1$$ b) -hat set o hypotheses about this computer;s speed "ou!d a competing manu acturer !i0e!y be interested in testing.

H ! = 1$$ Ha! < 1$$ <) A doctor has de+ised a ne" surgica! procedure that he be!ie+es "i!! reduce the mean !ength o hospita! stay rom its present +a!ue o 2 days. -hat set o hypotheses "ou!d be tested i the surgeon "ants to demonstrate that the ne" procedure does decrease the mean !ength o stay. H ! =2 Ha! < 2