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By Scott Stewart 4n this 5ee67s 'eopolitical 8ee6ly 'eorge .riedman discussed the geopolitical cycles that change 5ith each generation9 .re:uently especially in recent years those geopolitical cycles have intersected 5ith changes in the 5ay the tactic of terrorism is employed and in the actors employing it9 The Ara; terrorism that ;egan in the #<="s resulted from the Cold 8ar and the +oviet decision to fund train and other5ise encourage groups in the Middle East9 The +oviet )nion and its Middle Eastern pro1ies also sponsored Mar1ist terrorist groups in Europe and >atin America9 They even ;ac6ed the ?apanese *ed Army terrorist group9 @laces li6e +outh -emen and >i;ya ;ecame havens 5here Mar1ist militants of many different nationalities gathered to learn terrorist tradecraft often instructed ;y personnel from the +oviet A'/ or the East 'erman +tasi and from other militants9 The Cold 8ar also spa5ned al Baeda and the ;roader glo;al Cihadist movement as militants floc6ing to fight the +oviet troops 5ho had invaded Afghanistan 5ere trained in camps in northern @a6istan ;y instructors from the C4A7s Office of Technical +ervices and @a6istan7s 4nter-+ervices 4ntelligence directorate9 Em;oldened ;y the +oviet 5ithdra5al from Afghanistan and claiming credit for the su;se:uent +oviet collapse these militants decided to e1pand their efforts to other parts of the 5orld9 The connection ;et5een state-sponsored terrorism and the Cold 8ar ran so deep that 5hen the Cold 8ar ended 5ith the +oviet )nion7s collapse many declared that terrorism had ended as 5ell9 4 5itnessed this phenomenon 5hile serving in the Counterterrorism 4nvestigations ,ivision of the ,iplomatic +ecurity +ervice D,++E in the early #<<"s9 8hile 4 5as in Ne5 -or6 5or6ing as part of the interagency team investigating the #<<$ 8orld Trade Center ;om;ing a ne5ly appointed assistant secretary of state a;olished my office declaring that the ,++ did not need a Counterterrorism 4nvestigations ,ivision since terrorism 5as over9 Though terrorism o;viously did not end 5hen the /erlin 8all fell the rosy sentiments to the contrary held ;y some at the +tate ,epartment and else5here too6 a5ay the impetus to mitigate the gro5ing Cihadist threat or to protect diplomatic facilities from it9 The final report of the Cro5e Commission 5hich 5as esta;lished to revie5 the t5in August #<<8 ;om;ing attac6s against the )9+9 em;assies in Nairo;i and ,ar es +alaam e1plicitly noted this neglect of counterterrorism and security programs as did the <F## Commission report9 The <F## terrorist attac6s triggered a shift in international geopolitics ;y leading the )nited +tates to concentrate the full 5eight of its national resources on al Baeda and its supporters9 4ronically ;y the time the )9+9 government 5as a;le to shift its massive ;ureaucracy to meet the ne5 challenge creating huge ne5 organi2ations li6e the ,epartment of (omeland +ecurity the efforts of the e1isting )9+9 counterterrorism apparatus had already ;adly crippled the core al Baeda group9 Though some of these ne5 organi2ations played important roles in helping the )nited +tates cope 5ith the fallout of its decision to invade 4ra: after Afghanistan 8ashington spent ;illions of dollars to create organi2ations and fund programs that in hindsight 5ere argua;ly not really necessary ;ecause the threats they 5ere designed to counter such as al Baeda7s nuclear ;riefcase ;om;s
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/usting the Anthra1 Myth
,e;un6ing Myt hs A;out Nuclear 8eapons and Terrorism Algeria Ends t he (ostage Crisis
Congo: )9+9 )rges *egional >eaders To End +upport .or M!$ Militia
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did not actually e1ist9 As 'eorge .riedman noted in the 'eopolitical 8ee6ly the sole glo;al superpo5er 5as ;adly off-;alance 5hich caused an im;alance in the entire glo;al system9 8ith the continued diminution of the Cihadist threat underscored ;y the May !"## death of Osama ;in >aden and the fall in >i;ya of the 'adhafi regime D5hich had long employed terrorismE once again 5e appear on the ;rin6 of a cyclical change in the terrorism paradigm9 These events could again lead some to pronounce the death of terrorism9 +everal developments last 5ee6 served to demonstrate that 5hile the perpetrators and tactics of terrorism D5hat +tratfor calls the J5hoJ and the Jho5JE may change in response to larger geopolitical cycles such shifts 5ill not signal the end of terrorism itself9
assistance usually involves ac:uiring e1plosives or firearms as in the el Ahalifi case 5here an ./4 informant posing as a Cihadist leader provided the suspect 5ith an inert suicide vest and a su;machine gun prior to the suspect7s arrest9 8hile many in the media tend to ridicule individuals li6e el Ahalifi as inept it is important to remem;er that had he succeeded in finding a real Cihadist facilitator rather than a federal informant he could have 6illed many people in an attac69 *ichard *eid 5ho many people refer to as the JAramer of al BaedaJ after the ;um;ling character from the television sho5 +einfeld came very close to ta6ing do5n a Cum;o Cet full of people over the Atlantic ;ecause he had ;een e:uipped and dispatched ;y others9 +till the fact remains that the Cihadist threat no5 predominantly stems from une:uipped grassroots 5anna;es rather than teams of highly trained operatives sent to the )nited +tates from overseas li6e the team that e1ecuted the <F## attac6s9 This demonstrates ho5 the Cihadist threat has diminished in recent years a trend 5e e1pect to continue9 This 5ill allo5 8ashington to increasingly focus attention on things other than Cihadism such as the fragmentation of Europe the transformation of glo;al economic production and 4ran7s gro5ing regional po5er9 4t 5ill mar6 the ;eginning of a ne5 geopolitical cycle9 >ast 5ee6 also ;rought us a series of events highlighting ho5 terrorism may manifest itself in the ne5 cycle9 On .e;9 #$ 4sraeli diplomatic vehicles in Ne5 ,elhi 4ndia and T;ilisi 'eorgia 5ere targeted 5ith e1plosive devices9 4n T;ilisi a grenade hidden under a diplomatic vehicle 5as discovered ;efore it could detonate9 4n Ne5 ,elhi a stic6y ;om; placed on the ;ac6 of a diplomatic vehicle 5ounded the 5ife of the 4sraeli defense attache as she headed to pic6 up her children from school9 On .e;9 #I an 4ranian man 5as arrested after ;eing 5ounded in an e1plosion at a rented house in /ang6o69 The ;last reportedly occurred as a group 5as preparing improvised e1plosive devices for use against 4sraeli targets in /ang6o69 T5o other 4ranians 5ere later arrested Done in MalaysiaE and Thai authorities are see6ing three more 4ranian citi2ens t5o of 5hom have reportedly returned to 4ran alleged to have assisted in the plot9 8hile these recent 4ranian plots failed they nonetheless highlight ho5 the 4ranians are using terrorism as a tactic in retaliation for attac6s 4srael and 4sraeli surrogates have conducted against individuals associated 5ith 4ran7s nuclear program9 4t is also important to ;ear in mind as this ne5 geopolitical cycle ;egins that terrorism does not Cust emanate from foreign governments maCor su;national actors or even transnational radical ideologies li6e Cihadism9 As 5e sa5 in the ?uly !"## attac6s in Nor5ay conducted ;y Anders /reivi6 and in older cases involving suspects li6e Eric *udolph Timothy McVeigh and Theodore Aac2yns6i in the )nited +tates native-;orn individuals 5ho have a variety of grievances 5ith the government or society can carry out terrorist attac6s9 +uch grievances 5ill certainly persist9 'eopolitical cycles 5ill change and these changes may cause a shift in 5ho employs terrorism and ho5 it is employed9 /ut as a tactic terrorism 5ill continue no matter 5hat the ne1t geopolitical cycle ;rings9 Clic6 here for ,etection @oints in the Terrorist Attac6 Cycle9 Clic6 here for ,etecting Terrorist +urveillance9
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