Shiller, R., U.S.

Stock Price Data, Annual, with consumption, both short and long rates, and p
An Update of Data shown in Chapter 26 of Market Volatility, R. Shiller, MIT Press, 1989, and Irrational Exuberance, Princeton 2
P
D
E
R
RLONG
CPI
RealR
C
S&P Dividends Earnings One-Year
Long Consumer
Real Real Per
Composite
Accruing
Accruing
InterestGovernment
Price One-Year Capita
Stock
to
to
Rate
Bond
Index
Interest Consumption
Price
Index
Index
Yield
Rate (See
Index
10yrpost53
Consumption
1871
4.44
0.26
0.4
6.35
5.32 12.46406 1.047504 Tab)
1872
4.86
0.3
0.43
7.81
5.36 12.65439
1.05432 in 2005
1873
5.11
0.33
0.46
8.35
5.58 12.93981 1.133511 dollars
1874
4.66
0.33
0.46
6.86
5.47
12.3689 1.148076
1875
4.54
0.3
0.36
4.96
5.07 11.51265 1.114055
1876
4.46
0.3
0.28
5.33
4.59 10.84658 1.044139
1877
3.55
0.19
0.3
5.03
4.45 10.94174 1.245205
1878
3.25
0.18
0.31
4.9
4.34 9.229089 1.169569
1879
3.58
0.2
0.38
4.25
4.22 8.277679 0.863783
1880
5.11
0.26
0.49
5.1
4.02 9.990331 1.114701
1881
6.19
0.32
0.44
4.79
3.7
9.41942 0.969553
1882
5.92
0.32
0.43
5.26
3.62 10.18058 1.072645
1883
5.81
0.33
0.4
5.35
3.63 9.990331 1.140396
1884
5.18
0.31
0.31
5.65
3.62 9.229089 1.177931
1885
4.24
0.24
0.27
4.22
3.52 8.277679 1.079423
1886
5.2
0.22
0.33
4.26
3.37 7.992232
1.0426
1887
5.58
0.25
0.36
6.11
3.52 7.992232 1.012865
1888
5.31
0.23
0.26
5.02
3.67 8.372845 1.100213
1889
5.24
0.22
0.3
4.68
3.45 7.992232
1.09914
2731.57
1890
5.38
0.22
0.29
5.41
3.42 7.611652
1.02839
2674.74
1891
4.84
0.22
0.34
5.97
3.62 7.801942 1.128512 2802.827
1892
5.51
0.24
0.37
3.93
3.6 7.326213 0.964169
2877.01
1893
5.61
0.25
0.26
8.52
3.75 7.897091 1.250995 2834.846
1894
4.32
0.21
0.16
3.32
3.7 6.850484 1.078121 2698.708
1895
4.25
0.19
0.25
3.09
3.46 6.565052 1.016174 2979.457
1896
4.27
0.18
0.21
5.76
3.6 6.660193 1.088706 2916.275
1897
4.22
0.18
0.31
3.44
3.4 6.469903 1.004846 3089.246
1898
4.88
0.2
0.35
3.55
3.35 6.660193 1.020915 3085.275
1899
6.08
0.21
0.48
3.36
3.1 6.755343 0.884164 3389.813
1900
6.1
0.3
0.48
4.64
3.15 7.897091 1.072238 3362.054
1901
7.07
0.32
0.5
4.3
3.1 7.706793 1.017867 3702.786
1902
8.12
0.33
0.63
4.72
3.18 7.897091 0.955138 3659.712
1903
8.46
0.35
0.53
5.5
3.3
8.65826 1.103505 3808.078
1904
6.68
0.31
0.49
4.34
3.4 8.277679 1.019958
3785.69
1905
8.43
0.33
0.67
4.17
3.48 8.467929
1.0417
3923.57
1906
9.87
0.4
0.76
5.47
3.43 8.467929 1.009337 4273.845
1907
9.56
0.44
0.66
6.23
3.67 8.848509 1.085642 4276.705
1908
6.85
0.4
0.58
5.32
3.87
8.65826
1.01959
3929.99
1909
9.06
0.44
0.76
3.65
3.76 8.943674 0.936833 4274.442
1910
10.08
0.47
0.73
5.26
3.91 9.895165 1.128568
4263.36
1911
9.27
0.47
0.59
4
3.98 9.229089 1.050826 4399.928
1912
9.12
0.48
0.7
4.35
4.01 9.134005 0.972585 4444.755
1913
9.3
0.48
0.63
5.65
4.45
9.8
1.03537 4501.988
1914
8.37
0.42
0.52
4.64
4.16
10
1.03604 4361.754

1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966

7.48
9.33
9.57
7.21
7.85
8.83
7.11
7.3
8.9
8.83
10.58
12.65
13.4
17.53
24.86
21.71
15.98
8.3
7.09
10.54
9.26
13.76
17.59
11.31
12.5
12.3
10.55
8.93
10.09
11.85
13.49
18.02
15.21
14.83
15.36
16.88
21.21
24.19
26.18
25.46
35.6
44.15
45.43
41.12
55.62
58.03
59.72
69.07
65.06
76.45
86.12
93.32

0.43
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.53
0.51
0.46
0.51
0.53
0.55
0.6
0.69
0.77
0.85
0.97
0.98
0.82
0.5
0.44
0.45
0.47
0.72
0.8
0.51
0.62
0.67
0.71
0.59
0.61
0.64
0.66
0.71
0.84
0.93
1.14
1.47
1.41
1.41
1.45
1.54
1.64
1.74
1.79
1.75
1.83
1.95
2.02
2.13
2.28
2.5
2.72
2.87

0.88
1.53
1.28
0.99
0.93
0.8
0.29
0.69
0.98
0.93
1.25
1.24
1.11
1.38
1.61
0.97
0.61
0.41
0.44
0.49
0.76
1.02
1.13
0.64
0.9
1.05
1.16
1.03
0.94
0.93
0.96
1.06
1.61
2.29
2.32
2.84
2.44
2.4
2.51
2.77
3.62
3.41
3.37
2.89
3.39
3.27
3.19
3.67
4.02
4.55
5.19
5.55

3.65
3.64
4.25
5.98
5.56
7.3
7.44
4.58
4.96
4.34
3.87
4.28
4.26
4.64
6.01
4.15
2.43
3.36
1.46
1.01
0.75
0.75
0.88
0.88
0.56
0.56
0.53
0.63
0.69
0.72
0.75
0.76
1.01
1.35
1.58
1.32
2.12
2.39
2.58
1.8
1.81
3.21
3.86
2.54
3.74
4.28
2.91
3.39
3.5
4.09
4.46
5.44

4.24
4.05
4.23
4.57
4.5
4.97
5.09
4.3
4.36
4.06
3.86
3.68
3.34
3.33
3.6
3.29
3.34
3.68
3.31
3.12
2.79
2.65
2.68
2.56
2.36
2.21
1.95
2.46
2.47
2.48
2.37
2.19
2.25
2.44
2.31
2.32
2.57
2.68
2.83
2.48
2.61
2.9
3.46
3.09
4.02
4.72
3.84
4.08
3.83
4.17
4.19
4.61

10.1
10.4
11.7
14
16.5
19.3
19
16.9
16.8
17.3
17.3
17.9
17.5
17.3
17.1
17.1
15.9
14.3
12.9
13.2
13.6
13.8
14.1
14.2
14
13.9
14.1
15.7
16.9
17.4
17.8
18.2
21.5
23.7
24
23.5
25.4
26.5
26.6
26.9
26.7
26.8
27.6
28.6
29
29.3
29.8
30
30.4
30.9
31.2
31.8

1.006601
0.921244
0.871232
0.899224
0.902456
1.089942
1.207905
1.052025
1.019265
1.0434
1.003883
1.066635
1.054653
1.058639
1.0601
1.120104
1.138907
1.145774
0.991541
0.980391
0.992899
0.986064
1.001696
1.023211
1.012835
0.991336
0.902849
0.934847
0.977966
0.984566
0.985357
0.852945
0.916335
1.000831
1.037413
0.937409
0.978811
1.020051
1.01436
1.025625
1.014301
1.002184
1.002285
1.011257
1.026778
1.025303
1.022239
1.020296
1.018252
1.030891
1.024891
1.019147

4224.744
4541.709
4387.478
4369.959
4505.827
4637.213
4842.814
4952.361
5310.285
5595.714
5351.596
5712.111
5760.197
5818.536
6071.471
5686.179
5469.072
4951.901
4815.926
5123.657
5400.96
5909.391
6090.563
5945.863
6225.815
6495.56
6892.752
6662.803
6759.28
6872.801
7217.907
8015.24
8007.942
8045.457
8125.392
8502.693
8492.658
8612.568
8874.239
8897.174
9378.792
9480.339
9541.591
9458.975
9819.111
9886.802
9927.013
10259.6
10529.76
11007.92
11557.94
12074.85

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

84.45
2.92
5.33
5.55
4.58
32.9 1.018356
12299.9
95.04
3.07
5.76
6.17
5.53
34.1 1.016965 12877.16
102.04
3.16
5.78
8.05
6.04
35.6 1.017614 13224.51
90.31
3.14
5.13
9.11
7.79
37.8 1.036271 13375.36
93.49
3.07
5.7
5.66
6.24
39.8
1.02318 13711.99
103.3
3.15
6.42
4.62
5.95
41.1 1.009362 14396.62
118.42
3.38
8.16
7.93
6.46
42.6 0.986656 14959.18
96.11
3.6
8.89
11.03
6.99
46.6
0.99309 14709.72
72.56
3.68
7.96
7.24
7.5
52.1 1.004893 14902.65
96.86
4.05
9.91
5.7
7.74
55.6 1.004602 15572.32
103.81
4.67
10.89
5.28
7.21
58.5 0.985421
16070
90.25
5.07
12.33
7.78
7.96
62.5 0.986274 16599.46
99.71
5.65
14.86
10.88
9.1
68.3 0.973407 16816.07
110.87
6.16
14.82
11.37
10.8
77.8 0.995929 16576.57
132.97
6.63
15.36
17.63
12.57
87
1.08524 16646.17
117.28
6.87
12.64
14.6
14.59
94.3 1.104988 16719.59
144.27
7.09
14.03
9.37
10.46
97.8 1.049694 17515.64
166.39
7.53
16.64
11.11
11.67
101.9 1.073186
18284.4
171.61
7.9
14.61
8.35
11.38
105.5 1.042968 19063.95
208.19
8.28
14.48
7.31
9.19
109.6
1.05766 19657.79
264.51
8.81
17.5
6.25
7.08
111.2 1.021175 20132.17
250.48
9.73
23.76
7.63
8.67
115.7 1.028306 20758.54
285.41
11.05
22.87
9.29
9.09
121.1 1.038855 21142.76
339.97
12.1
21.34
8.43
8.21
127.4 1.026299
21332.5
325.5
12.2
15.91
6.92
8.09
134.6 1.042102 21086.69
416.08
12.38
19.09
3.91
7.03
138.1 1.006309 21489.45
435.23
12.58
21.88
3.44
6.6
142.6 1.008929
21921.2
472.99
13.18
30.6
4.35
5.75
146.2 1.015035
22467.7
465.25
13.79
33.96
6.45
7.78
150.3 1.036233 22802.98
614.42
14.9
38.73
5.68
5.65
154.4 1.025581 23325.45
766.22
15.5
39.72
5.78
6.58
159.1 1.041436 23898.91
963.36
16.2
37.7
5.68
5.54
161.6 1.039433 24861.13
1248.77
16.69
48.17
5.31
4.72
164.3 1.025026 25922.57
1425.59
16.27
50
6.61
6.66
168.8 1.027742 26939.62
1330.93
15.74
24.69
4.63
5.16
175.1 1.034484 27388.94
1140.21
16.07
27.59
1.85
5.04
177.1 0.992715
27848.5
895.84
17.39
48.74
1.18
4.05
181.7 0.992679 28368.69
1,080.6
19.44
58.55
1.49
4.15
185.2 0.985629
29087.3
1,199.2
22.22
69.93
3.41
4.22
190.7 0.994467
29790.3
1262.07
24.88
81.51
5.32
4.42
198.3 1.031784 30364.43
1416.42
27.73
66.18
5.34
4.76 202.416 1.009684 30867.61
1479.22
28.39
26.16
3.42
3.74
211.18 1.034381 30509.08
877.56
1.02
2.52 211.143 0.984305 29933.85
22.41
50.97
22.73
77.35
0.46
3.73 216.687
0.98842
1110.38
0.37
3.39 220.223
1241.53
Notes: The Federal Reserve Board discontinued its 6-month commercial paper rate series August 1997.
After that, the 6-month Certificate of Deposit rate, secondary market, is used,
The series R is the result of converting the January and July rates into an annual yield. RLONG is the 10-year Tr
Before 1953, it is government bond yields from Sidney Homer A History of Interest Rates.
See Shiller, Irrational Exuberance 2nd Edition, 2005 for description of data

nd long rates, and present value calculations.

al Exuberance, Princeton 2005.
RealP
P*
P*r
P*C
RealP
Present
Present
Present
Stock
Value
Value
Value
Consumption
Price
of Real
of Real
of Real
Dividends Dividends Dividends
Consumption
Const r
Market r Cons disc.
1871 72.10548
94.2852
55.2751
1872 77.73916 96.24148 55.53926
1873 79.93518 97.76029 55.59267
1874 76.26053 98.62658 58.85222
1875
79.8225 99.12274 62.97589
1876 83.23138 99.86994 66.16068
1877 65.67299 100.7198 65.65149
1878 71.28027 103.1039 78.96004
1879 87.54257 105.3994 90.11089
1880 103.5347 108.2236 77.69446
1881 133.0183 109.6004 83.19203
1882 117.7048 110.2428 77.48864
1883 117.7175 110.7994
78.9342
1884 113.6098 110.5885 84.56035
1885 103.6817 109.9972 93.68107
1886 131.6983 110.9698 97.97903
1887 141.3224 112.5493 99.94991
1888 128.3708
113.732 98.77883
1889 132.7113 115.2285 105.8965 95.65229
1890 143.0699 116.7995 113.8688 82.08665
1891 125.5705 118.6294 115.4528 93.26869
1892 152.2358 120.1877 127.6987 97.46353
1893 143.7939 121.7736 121.9353 85.72275
1894
127.646 122.1479 147.7698 63.01774
1895 131.0375 123.5217 157.8471 87.14943
1896 129.7735 125.7365 160.4668 74.21447
1897
132.026 128.2543 174.6126 87.81972
1898 148.3125 131.1148 176.5625 81.89852
1899 182.1801 133.6117 180.7937
113.352
1900 156.3535 136.9295 161.9375 104.3017
1901 185.6909 137.8063 171.1991 145.5777
1902 208.1295 138.3979 172.2701
130.719
1903
197.781
139.55 163.5947 145.5259
1904 163.3476 139.8793 177.1334 133.5751
1905 201.5094 141.4573
179.734 146.7141
1906 235.9309 142.6318
185.718 198.6597
1907 218.6919 142.5384 185.1068 190.0418
1908 160.1418 141.2253 196.6147 125.2255
1909 205.0487 141.1404 198.5556 166.1918
1910
206.197 141.1056 184.9788 155.4742
1911 203.3133 139.6721
203.944 166.0651
1912 202.1056 138.0268 210.9173 162.5213
1913 192.0887 136.8051 203.3367 161.1409
1914 169.4222 135.7123 208.0252
132.266

RealD
Return
RealD
on
S&P
S&P
Dividend Composite

4.158885
4.692868
5.400424
5.802076
5.598523
5.54983
4.167154
4.401581
4.052238
5.587198
6.362419
6.483581
7.237689
7.580501
6.078382
5.57185
6.043824
5.825116
5.850441
5.707748
6.078382
6.151612
7.386924
6.474794
5.774463
5.631441
5.470544
5.992768
5.38266
7.879387
8.202149
7.714862
8.558631
7.41019
7.888267
9.150287
10.28648
9.052923
9.000662
10.30822
10.41553
9.914253
9.715968
8.417299

0.135809
0.088615
0.02159
0.12279
0.112843
-0.144279
0.148835
0.289896
0.228967
0.338735
-0.067292
0.055192
0.026589
-0.020664
0.328843
0.115385
-0.048879
0.07919
0.122137
-0.082419
0.26076
-0.015044
-0.060927
0.077294
0.034421
0.060752
0.164794
0.268759
-0.112219
0.23803
0.16501
-0.012654
-0.130826
0.278988
0.209964
-0.034284
-0.220692
0.33695
0.049495
0.036007
0.045289
-0.000508
-0.067419
-0.065498

ln(1+ret)

RealE
RealE
Earnings

0.127345
0.084907
0.02136
0.115817
0.106918
-0.155811
0.138748
0.254562
0.206174
0.291725
-0.069663
0.053723
0.026241
-0.02088
0.284308
0.109199
-0.050114
0.07621
0.115235
-0.086014
0.231715
-0.015159
-0.062862
0.074452
0.033842
0.058978
0.152544
0.23804
-0.11903
0.213521
0.152729
-0.012735
-0.140211
0.246069
0.190591
-0.034886
-0.249349
0.290391
0.048309
0.035374
0.044294
-0.000508
-0.0698
-0.067741

6.398284
6.726443
7.527863
8.087743
6.718228
5.179842
6.579717
7.580501
7.699253
10.52972
8.748327
8.712312
8.772957
7.580501
6.83818
8.357775
8.703107
6.584914
7.977874
7.52385
9.393863
9.483735
7.682401
4.933176
7.597978
6.570015
9.421492
10.48734
12.30322
12.60702
12.81586
14.72837
12.96021
11.71288
16.01557
17.38555
15.42972
13.12674
15.5466
16.01065
13.07482
14.45829
12.75221
10.42142

1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966

149.9081
181.5905
165.5659
104.2442
96.30095
92.60794
75.7462
87.43413
107.2323
103.3141
123.7897
143.0482
154.9928
205.1071
294.2726
256.9855
203.4344
117.4862
111.2503
161.6261
137.8215
201.8293
252.5175
161.2201
180.7286
179.1163
151.4531
115.1322
120.8507
137.8523
153.404
200.4141
143.1976
126.6595
129.5462
145.395
169.0253
184.7714
199.22
191.5803
269.888
333.4577
333.1797
291.0261
388.2199
400.8942
405.6471
466.0291
433.1969
500.7995
558.7201
594.0082

135.9321
136.2182
135.1151
133.6297
135.2296
138.4694
142.0628
145.8185
149.1507
152.6488
156.1344
159.483
161.7816
163.1381
163.4629
162.2929
159.9822
158.4425
160.8151
164.5216
168.5325
172.606
173.2801
172.8598
176.7145
179.0635
180.9422
183.4444
188.3452
193.547
198.9077
204.5653
211.3073
217.9837
224.3984
229.1384
232.1763
236.4288
241.0132
245.715
249.9199
253.6502
257.2338
261.1591
265.8354
270.3725
274.5735
278.6495
282.4114
285.6244
287.6846
288.716

214.5913
215.6313
197.7608
170.9322
153.8163
139.5818
151.4493
181.9767
191.8414
196.4612
205.6889
207.4386
220.5324
231.3382
242.8873
254.3433
280.3554
316.5672
365.773
369.9997
370.3561
375.0652
373.8797
377.2363
392.8815
403.7593
406.1075
373.8804
357.2296
356.0825
357.0334
358.2193
313.5586
292.7075
296.2175
308.2898
289.5862
283.789
289.1907
293.1357
299.6573
302.5897
301.7723
301.0465
303.3547
309.8421
315.6764
320.5517
324.5434
327.3414
332.8747
335.7304

107.9966
135.8709
108.6456
96.94452
102.5825
109.5224
124.8432
131.0187
167.0583
199.7758
160.6947
201.7866
200.6867
199.9319
226.9682
163.1288
127.1298
73.83671
58.20916
67.82762
77.04962
103.5286
106.4844
85.31617
95.1812
103.7516
121.9341
97.30515
95.99802
95.51523
108.9158
158.2794
151.0193
146.6949
144.7686
163.7701
151.2837
149.2403
157.4914
148.2149
171.3335
166.4886
158.0722
139.9995
150.3546
141.9014
130.9787
135.8042
136.5007
148.1001
163.774
177.7833

8.369123
9.688287
9.976217
6.992553
5.558574
5.433272
5.509548
6.144771
6.201184
6.435191
6.784894
7.980974
9.009267
10.06161
11.48208
12.47595
11.60707
7.845581
6.7472
6.697588
6.893878
10.33614
11.40372
7.373726
9.028627
9.618349
9.153845
7.066594
7.096193
7.277879
7.34036
6.684435
7.174238
7.84362
9.819329
11.71463
10.77006
10.72957
10.9109
11.67493
12.38665
12.76101
12.66869
12.21476
12.64236
13.24534
13.62934
14.18244
14.93555
16.21923
17.31357
17.65757

0.267174
-0.034893
-0.310121
-0.00912
0.019372
-0.123407
0.227041
0.296714
0.02129
0.260476
0.210384
0.139293
0.38146
0.483782
-0.087691
-0.159834
-0.365431
0.013701
0.513463
-0.105843
0.514446
0.302357
-0.316389
0.166742
0.041036
-0.100744
-0.179376
0.111048
0.199401
0.165609
0.354296
-0.252138
-0.065391
0.084718
0.198138
0.243096
0.156877
0.136266
0.01642
0.469686
0.281437
0.037435
-0.088495
0.375941
0.065212
0.044895
0.182453
-0.040019
0.190533
0.148043
0.094147
-0.09558

0.236789
-0.035517
-0.371239
-0.009162
0.019187
-0.131713
0.204605
0.259833
0.021066
0.231489
0.190938
0.130408
0.323141
0.394594
-0.091777
-0.174156
-0.454809
0.013608
0.414401
-0.111874
0.41505
0.264175
-0.380366
0.154216
0.040216
-0.106187
-0.197691
0.105304
0.181822
0.153244
0.303282
-0.290537
-0.067627
0.08132
0.180769
0.217605
0.145724
0.127748
0.016287
0.385049
0.247982
0.036751
-0.092659
0.319138
0.063174
0.043917
0.167591
-0.040841
0.174401
0.138059
0.089975
-0.100461

17.12751
26.46978
18.50661
12.14496
9.753724
8.522779
3.473411
8.313514
11.46634
10.88132
14.1352
14.34262
12.98738
16.33533
19.05788
12.34865
8.634529
6.433377
6.7472
7.292929
11.14755
14.64286
16.10775
9.253303
13.10607
15.07353
14.95558
12.3366
10.93512
10.57567
10.67689
9.97958
13.75062
19.31386
19.9832
22.63234
18.63755
18.2631
18.88714
20.99971
27.34127
25.00864
23.85112
20.1718
23.41946
22.21142
21.52357
24.43641
26.33373
29.519
33.03582
34.14616

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
series August 1997.

519.5754
564.153
580.1834
483.6029
475.4742
508.7487
562.6785
417.4721
281.906
352.6261
359.1932
292.2887
295.5037
288.4558
309.3708
251.7428
298.5946
330.5201
329.257
384.4981
481.4843
438.2123
477.0566
540.152
489.4978
609.857
617.7946
654.8614
626.5738
805.4951
974.8283
1206.68
1538.472
1709.492
1538.558
1303.2
997.9766
1181.095
1272.886
1288.266
1416.42
1417.832
841.2885
1037.25
1141.141

289.4501
290.5805
291.6568
293.3763
296.2292
300.1831
304.5679
309.5553
315.6235
322.7325
329.666
335.8835
342.6284
350.1789
358.6344
367.7712
377.5413
388.1186
399.0253
410.5194
422.2789
434.4722
446.5846
458.1382
469.7923
482.5731
496.5509
511.6434
527.4045
543.8843
560.5446
577.8459
595.741
614.7909
636.4208
660.392
686.0835
712.3388
738.6373
764.5345
789.8409
815.0498
841.2885

d. RLONG is the 10-year Treasury after 1953

336.5756
337.5612
338.0286
339.2941
347.6696
353.2361
354.6365
348.6853
345.4476
346.6332
347.1309
340.1225
333.3215
322.5826
319.0253
342.6691
375.7513
393.7546
421.8696
440.6733
466.7504
478.5081
493.3682
512.8682
526.9857
550.4061
556.9887
565.4462
577.3043
601.312
619.979
648.8858
678.2721
700.4202
727.1214
761.259
766.9512
771.6571
769.5386
771.8714
799.885
810.9725
841.2885

173.7547
191.4093
195.4573
187.6076
191.2498
217.2831
238.3206
208.1355
205.285
231.3496
248.3594
267.6188
266.8379
237.2585
226.9363
216.7348
246.8353
279.0236
315.2906
341.8594
361.0006
392.6552
406.2797
403.5044
367.0293
378.0026
391.7352
414.8673
422.441
444.4302
470.818
531.9304
608.8002
690.101
718.4972
749.9575
789.6792
853.7782
918.7233
968.9409
1009.901
937.213
841.2885

17.33298
17.45554
16.92155
15.9695
15.11964
14.96738
14.68168
13.98652
13.39732
14.01342
15.12452
15.02561
14.69988
14.33198
14.23137
14.21879
14.0837
14.44732
14.5902
15.07198
15.41301
16.26348
17.55649
18.19639
17.88179
17.573
17.41719
17.75012
18.07848
18.95662
19.4149
19.95824
20.01376
18.80816
17.98999
17.90217
19.00656
20.63433
22.68121
24.88
26.5792
27.21658
20.93408
20.89208

0.119156
0.059356
-0.1373
0.016213
0.101781
0.135425
-0.23197
-0.291228
0.298388
0.058364
-0.144156
0.062406
0.025895
0.122192
-0.140274
0.242591
0.154086
0.039889
0.212088
0.29144
-0.057861
0.125756
0.169062
-0.06009
0.282414
0.041831
0.088191
-0.016091
0.314408
0.233757
0.257755
0.291503
0.124171
-0.088989
-0.14128
-0.220474
0.202535
0.095187
0.029902
0.118791
0.019762
-0.387442
0.257814
0.120302

0.112575
0.057661
-0.147688
0.016083
0.096928
0.127007
-0.263927
-0.344221
0.261124
0.056724
-0.155668
0.060536
0.025565
0.115284
-0.151141
0.217199
0.143308
0.039114
0.192344
0.255758
-0.059602
0.118455
0.156201
-0.061971
0.248744
0.040979
0.084517
-0.016222
0.273386
0.210064
0.229328
0.255807
0.117046
-0.0932
-0.152313
-0.249069
0.184432
0.090925
0.029464
0.112248
0.019569
-0.490111
0.229375
0.113598

31.63863
32.75045
30.95144
26.0903
28.07229
30.50495
35.44452
34.53893
28.97898
34.28962
35.26896
36.54157
38.66198
34.48052
32.97041
26.16092
27.86945
31.92609
26.98264
26.35777
30.61608
39.71432
36.33637
32.09181
23.31961
27.09763
30.29317
41.21044
44.52103
49.27449
49.75225
46.44603
57.76291
57.80011
28.21937
30.73559
53.27082
62.14713
71.3815
81.51
63.43352
25.07875
47.61312
71.09556

P/E
Price
Earnings
Ratio
One-Year
Earnings

E10
Ten-Year
Average
of
Real
Earnings

P/E10
Price
Earnings
Ratio
Ten-Year
Earnings

12.15
11.88372
10.13043
9.869565
12.38889
12.67857
10.83333
11.54839
13.44737
12.63265
13.45455
13.51163
12.95
13.67742
19.25926
16.90909
14.75
20.15385
17.93333
16.68966
16.20588
15.16216
16.61538
26.5625
17.08
20.09524
15.74194
17.37143
12.70833
14.72917
16.24
13.42857
12.60377
17.20408
14.73134
12.57895
10.37879
15.62069
13.26316
12.69863
15.45763
13.28571
13.28571

7.302759
7.537764
7.73635
7.86086
7.810136
7.822131
8.139924
8.352263
8.252704
8.280567
7.97998
8.044533
8.121676
8.01262
7.747887
7.823867
7.645091
7.71693
8.107173
8.539708
9.048025
9.390224
9.914688
10.44247
11.12044
11.9622
13.04375
13.64458
13.90851
14.23285
14.57321
14.59911
14.5721
14.5513
14.42216

18.2148
15.61534
15.21616
14.45259
13.27527
16.83662
17.36163
15.36959
16.08095
17.27779
15.73569
18.92414
17.70496
15.93062
16.91267
16.58687
17.26938
19.21911
22.47148
18.309
20.52281
22.16449
19.94828
15.64262
18.12063
19.72304
16.76602
11.73667
14.74268
14.4874
13.95116
13.8437
13.18195
11.6431

14.38462
10.60227
6.254902
5.632813
7.929293
9.494624
8.8875
25.17241
12.89855
9.010204
11.37634
10.12
10.80645
15.79279
18.01449
13.48447
16.47423
13.60656
17.29268
23.95455
18.89796
18.10526
17.2451
10.00885
19.53125
13.66667
10.04762
7.698276
9.796117
12.60638
14.50538
18.77083
14.34906
9.21118
6.707424
7.275862
7.46831
9.913934
10.90833
10.14343
12.85199
12.19613
13.32258
12.20178
19.24567
17.11799
18.263
21.65204
17.72752
19.01741
18.92747
17.98073

14.53335
15.44177
15.74946
15.65128
15.072
14.32321
13.36307
12.74859
12.62
12.66599
12.36676
11.15405
10.60213
11.02116
11.95158
12.33416
12.85028
12.66226
12.19035
11.83151
11.53274
11.56277
11.87481
11.1666
10.57142
10.84391
11.47601
12.06634
12.48513
12.8134
12.76634
12.30001
12.0643
13.07035
13.75806
14.51394
14.88214
15.47479
16.26999
17.3124
18.97884
20.48174
21.49179
21.57759
21.92121
21.87912
22.16772
22.78505
23.52971
24.38164
24.9511
25.86485

10.39429
12.49475
10.72195
6.618908
6.152911
6.144372
5.288354
6.542968
8.411305
8.186531
9.773387
11.56715
13.89566
19.34585
26.70069
21.50222
16.49357
9.142699
8.785977
13.25853
11.64868
17.50054
21.83885
13.57665
16.18474
16.94345
13.96665
10.03242
10.01553
11.04132
11.97215
15.69864
11.64207
10.4987
9.911458
10.56798
11.64572
12.41565
12.87384
11.77507
15.58929
17.56998
16.26715
13.54127
17.99181
18.28796
18.54037
21.02287
19.01233
21.2837
22.9156
23.8069

15.21622
17.83114
17.71528
15.62457
18.22417
18.12281
18.44548
11.77819
8.16198
12.16834
10.47528
8.28742
8.08678
7.460969
8.972335
7.635417
11.41377
11.85959
10.3131
14.24983
18.26727
14.31314
12.01221
14.86533
15.25305
26.15211
22.79885
21.61746
15.20425
18.09246
19.78363
24.25378
33.12387
29.59498
26.6186
46.18104
32.46974
22.17152
20.48181
18.04762
17.37725
22.35147
33.54587
21.78497
16.05081

26.6436
27.90147
28.65466
29.04255
29.69742
30.30428
31.21536
31.71735
31.31167
31.32601
31.68904
32.06816
32.83921
33.67823
34.16804
33.73364
32.97613
32.71485
32.51522
31.72203
31.25674
31.57402
31.34146
31.10259
30.13751
30.23118
30.47355
31.40198
33.15582
35.4475
37.36111
38.03428
40.17694
42.74777
43.23774
43.60154
45.89931
47.99297
50.67902
53.90257
55.2707
53.13397
52.11899
53.44854
56.25178

20.08809
21.17405
20.79401
16.87693
16.37164
17.13107
18.56762
13.37393
8.888071
11.26181
11.46629
9.223651
9.214862
8.783884
9.186075
7.367786
8.851539
10.02301
10.06445
11.82517
15.17823
14.01977
15.10915
17.23443
15.73817
20.23581
20.43568
21.4895
19.95332
24.29423
27.50063
32.29775
40.44962
42.54908
35.99154
30.14034
22.88856
25.73231
26.52233
25.42011
26.27741
25.65251
15.83335
19.90158
21.35028

This page shows how consumption data in column I of Data were constructed
Per
Capita
NIPA
NIPA
Real
Table
Table
NBER
Real
Populatio Consumpt
2.3.6
2.4.3
Kendrick Consumption n
ion
Personal
Personal
From
Consumpt Real
Consumpt
NIPA
ion
Personal ion
Inferred from Table
Expenditu Consumpt Expenditu Columns
7.1
res
ion Index res
B,C,D
Line 18

1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924

Billion
s of
Millions of
Chained
1929
2005
Dollars 2000=100 Dollars
18004
17995
19247
20157
20256
19659
22119
22056
23794
24193
27053
27296
30651
30911
32761
33188
35090
38965
39702
37197
41269
42034
44064
45211
46701
46124
45322
49408
48342
48121
50245
52713
56082
58149
63427
68127

Billions
of 2005
Millions
Dollars
168.7427455
61.775
168.6583929
63.056
180.3927807
64.361
188.9217686
65.666
189.8496475
66.97
184.2542565
68.275
207.3106414
69.58
206.720173
70.885
223.0096027
72.189
226.7492359
73.494
253.5546265
74.799
255.8321474
76.094
287.2769325
77.584
289.7137862
79.163
307.0529375
80.632
311.055001
82.166
328.881523
83.822
365.2000155
85.45
372.1075585
87.008
348.6294104
88.71
386.7942882
90.49
393.9642616
92.407
412.9904654
93.863
423.7407392
95.335
437.7057853
97.225
432.2978446
99.111
424.7810883 100.546
463.0771812 101.961
453.0860811 103.268
451.0147555 103.208
470.9219756 104.514
494.0533407 106.541
525.629341 108.538
545.0023278 110.049
594.4704577 111.947
638.5212744 114.109

In 2005
Dollars
2731.57
2674.74
2802.827
2877.01
2834.846
2698.708
2979.457
2916.275
3089.246
3085.275
3389.813
3362.054
3702.786
3659.712
3808.078
3785.69
3923.57
4273.845
4276.705
3929.99
4274.442
4263.36
4399.928
4444.755
4501.988
4361.754
4224.744
4541.709
4387.478
4369.959
4505.827
4637.213
4842.814
4952.361
5310.285
5595.714

1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976

9.814
9.29
9.005
8.206
8.028
8.595
9.123
10.046
10.417
10.249
10.819
11.382
12.195
11.917
12.258
12.615
13.395
15.03
15.307
15.646
16.077
17.105
17.378
17.928
18.78
19.162
20.558
21.151
21.674
21.846
23.067
23.702
24.191
25.389
26.436
28.02
29.791
31.484
32.422
34.284
35.558
36.381
37.77
40.082
42.048
41.729
42.688
45.041

66137
71548
73157
74813
78952

619.8699712
670.5846455
685.6650208
701.1859043
739.9787406
700.4689729
678.9798817
618.735026
605.313769
648.0657505
687.8771194
757.4716148
785.4451335
772.7778798
815.7560622
858.2064423
919.5069025
898.5456135
924.2571227
951.1750369
1009.987287
1133.26681
1154.152698
1179.713407
1212.210945
1289.722474
1310.306761
1351.776937
1416.01801
1444.820932
1550.079779
1594.792168
1634.226536
1647.195391
1739.259182
1787.138385
1824.009141
1914.338725
1993.28286
2112.716967
2246.250933
2373.903675
2444.629175
2585.024571
2681.084579
2743.139042
2847.870087
3022.195627
3170.432656
3146.379954
3218.68886
3396.105813

115.829
117.397
119.035
120.509
121.878
123.188
124.149
124.949
125.69
126.485
127.362
128.181
128.961
129.969
131.028
132.122
133.402
134.86
136.739
138.397
139.928
141.389
144.126
146.631
149.188
151.684
154.287
156.954
159.565
162.391
165.275
168.221
171.274
174.141
177.13
180.76
183.742
186.59
189.3
191.927
194.347
196.599
198.752
200.745
202.736
205.089
207.692
209.924
211.939
213.898
215.981
218.086

5351.596
5712.111
5760.197
5818.536
6071.471
5686.179
5469.072
4951.901
4815.926
5123.657
5400.96
5909.391
6090.563
5945.863
6225.815
6495.56
6892.752
6662.803
6759.28
6872.801
7217.907
8015.24
8007.942
8045.457
8125.392
8502.693
8492.658
8612.568
8874.239
8897.174
9378.792
9480.339
9541.591
9458.975
9819.111
9886.802
9927.013
10259.6
10529.76
11007.92
11557.94
12074.85
12299.9
12877.16
13224.51
13375.36
13711.99
14396.62
14959.18
14709.72
14902.65
15572.32

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

6,079.00
6,291.20
6,523.40
6,865.50
7,240.90
7,608.10
7,813.90
8,021.90
8,247.60

46.95
49.012
50.204
50.065
50.779
51.493
54.436
57.325
60.303
62.749
64.84
67.468
69.369
70.782
70.903
73.224
75.672
78.504
80.623
83.382
86.533
90.896
95.537
100
102.537
105.698
109.143

8,532.70
8,819.00
9,073.50
9,313.90
9,290.90
9,186.70
2009 value is 2nd quarter 2009

3540.045024
3695.520484
3785.397666
3774.917021
3828.75285
3882.588678
4104.49182
4322.323344
4546.865497
4731.29468
4888.956749
5087.10879
5230.444799
5336.985451
5346.10889
5521.113032
5705.693016
5919.226722
6079
6291.2
6523.4
6865.5
7240.9
7608.1
7813.9
8021.9
8247.6
8532.7
8819
9073.5
9313.9
9290.9
9186.7

220.289
222.629
225.106
227.726
230.008
232.218
234.333
236.394
238.506
240.683
242.843
245.061
247.387
250.181
253.53
256.922
260.282
263.455
266.588
269.714
272.958
276.154
279.328
282.413
285.294
288.055
290.729
293.348
296.036
298.82
301.737
304.529
306.9
2009 Pop

16070
16599.46
16816.07
16576.57
16646.17
16719.59
17515.64
18284.4
19063.95
19657.79
20132.17
20758.54
21142.76
21332.5
21086.69
21489.45
21921.2
22467.7
22802.98
23325.45
23898.91
24861.13
25922.57
26939.62
27388.94
27848.5
28368.69
29087.3
29790.3
30364.43
30867.61
30509.08
29933.85
is 2nd Quarter

6,079.00

6,291.20

6,523.40

6,865.50

7,240.90

7,608.10

7,813.90

8,021.90

8,247.60

8,532.70

8,819.00

9,073.50

9,313.90

9,290.90

Comparing Actual Real Stock Price with Three Alternative PDVs of Future Real Dividends

10000

PDV Dividends Using Actual Real Stock Price (P)

Actual Future Interest
Rates
1000

Price

PDV of Dividends
(P* A=0)

100

Consumption-Discounted
Dividends, (P*, A=4)

10
1860

1880

1900

1920

1940
Year

1960

1980

2000

2020

15000

1500
1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

Average Real Interest Rate:

Geometric Average Stock Return:
exp(geo. Avg. return)
Geometric Average Dividend Growth

1.028826
0.065648
0.067851
0.012025