Session 9 Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave, pp. 1-108 pp.

31-108
CHA T!" # $ntrodu%tion It is a phenomenon of politics that similar events often happen simultaneously in different countries . How to explain this: single cause, parallel development, snowballing, prevailing nostrum (i.e. different problems being addressed with similar solutions) As described in h. !, focus of this stud" is on the third democratization wave. #n general, causes of democrati$ation are varied. %o single factor is sufficient, and no single factor necessar", to explain regime change. Causal &a%tors 1st Wave: &conomic development, industriali$ation, urbani$ation, growth of middle class, victor" of 'estern Allies in ''#, dismantling of empires ((economic and social factors) #nd Wave: )emocrac" imposed b" Allies after ''##, effects of Allied victor", decoloniali$ation ((*olitical and militar" factors). 3rd Wave: + *atterns of ,egime hange: "clical - alternation b.w democrac" and authoritarianism, where alternation actuall" begins to function as countr"/s political s"stem (in lieu of alternation b.w two political parties) 0econd12r" *attern - 'ea3 democrac" gives wa" to authoritarianism, then replaced b" stronger democrac". #nterrupted )emocrac" - temporar" suspension of democratic s"stem, then resumed. )irect 2ransition - characteri$ed !st wave of democrati$ation )ecoloniali$ation *attern - characteri$ed 4nd wave Huntington addresses the 5uestion: What changes in independent variables in the 1960s and 1970s produced the dependent variable of a democratizing regime change in the 1970s and 1980s? + changes evaluated b" this stud": 1. 'eepening legitima%( pro)lems o* authoritarian s(stems #. +lo)al e%onomi% gro,th o* the 19-0s 3. Changing do%trine o* the Catholi% Chur%h .. Changes in the poli%ies o* e/ternal a%tors 0. Sno,)alling e**e%ts He explains each of these changes in detail, providing examples, throughout the rest of the chapter. 1. 1egitima%( ro)lems *ost ''## - prevailing democratic ethos developed throughout the world. &ven authoritarian regimes increasingl" used democratic rhetoric to 6ustif" their legitimac". *olitical legitimac" inevitabl" declines over time, and authoritarian regimes, unli3e democracies, have no mechanisms for self1renewal. *oor economic performance and militar" failures undermined legitimac" of authoritarian regimes, b.c the" had no procedural legitimac" to change policies, as in democracies. #. !%onomi% 'evelopment and !%onomi% Crises orrelation b.w wealth and democrac" indicates that democratic transitions should occur in countries at middle level of development. 7road1based economic development with industriali$ation )8&0 contribute to democrati$ation, but wealth from sale of natural resources (i.e. oil) goes directl" to state, discourages taxation, and therefore does %82 necessaril" contribute to democrati$ation.

#ncreased economic well1being shapes societal values, increases levels of education, facilitates compromises (as there are more resources to be distributed), promotes trade opening, and expands middle class. (9ost active supporters of third wave democrati$ation came from urban middle class. 0hort1term: ,apid economic growth can undermine authoritarian regimes if combined w.short1term economic crisis or failure (author discusses the !:;<s oil crisis and other economic crises).

3. "eligious Changes orrelation between 'estern hristianit", esp. *rotestantism, and democrac". 9ost prominent case of expansion of hristianit" in third wave democracies is 0outh =orea, where post ''## 6ust !> of population was hristian, b" mid !:?<s 4+> hristian. hurches became principal forum for opposition to militar" regime and helped achieve transition to democrac" in !:??. hanges in political alignment of ,oman atholic hurch. ,epositioning from accommodating authoritarian regimes to opposing them. 0econd @atican ouncil and *ope Aohn *aul ## used power of hurch to defend human rightsB politicall" motivated papal visits pla"ed a 3e" role. %ational churches brought man" resources ((esp national networ3 of members) to war against authoritarianism in countries li3e *hilippines, =orea, hile, 7ra$il, *oland, %icaragua, ),, *anama etc. atholicism second onl" to economic development as force promoting democrati$ation in !:;<s and !:?<s. .. 2e, oli%ies o* !/ternal A%tors 7" late !:?<s, ma6or sources of power and influence - @atican, &uropean 0oviet Cnion - were promoting liberali$ation and democrati$ation. ommunit" (& ), C.0. and

The European Community & officiall" formed in !:D:, first expansion in !:;E. 2o be a member, countries had to be democratic. 9embership also helped prevent regression to authoritarianism. (Freece 6oined in !:?!, 0pain and *ortugal in !:?D). onference on 0ecurit" and ooperation in &urope ( 0 &), Helsin3i Ginal Act influenced development of human rights and democrac" in &urope, particularl" b" helping to foster openings in &astern &urope. The United States As of !:;H - shift to promoting human rights in foreign polic". arter administration strengthened this commitment post !:;;. ,eagan administration introduced promotion of democratic change as ma6or foreign polic" goal and created the %ational &ndowment for )emocrac" summarizer!s note" this is the #ndo$ment that created %&I' $here I used to $or(' and I)I' as $ell as the business and labor solidarity groups $hose acronyms are escaping me*+ C0 democrac" promotion efforts included: diplomatic action, economic pressure, material support for democratic opposition forces, militar" action and multilateral diplomac". Con%lusion3 )ifficult to ma3e definitive evaluation of C0 role, but C0 support was clearl" instrumental to democrati$ation process in man" countries (see text for man" specific examples). The Soviet Union &ven more dramatic polic" shift than in the case of the C0. Forbachev revo3ed the 7re$hnev doctrine and conve"ed to &astern &uropean governments that 0oviet gov/t would not act to maintain their existing communist dictatorships. 8pened the wa" for ouster of communist leaders, elections, opening of frontiers w.'estern &urope, and mar3et1oriented reforms. 0. 'emonstration !**e%ts or Sno,)alling

)efinition: 0uccessful democrati$ation occurs in one countr" and this encourages democrati$ation in other countries. 'h" did this happenI ountries saw: 2hat it was possible to bring down authoritarian s"stems H8' to do it 'hat dangers to avoid, difficulties to overcome Feneral role of demonstration effects in the third wave: ! - 9ore important in Erd wave than in first 4 waves b.c of improved communications 4 - )espite this, demonstration effects still strongest among countries that were geographicall" close and culturall" similar. ((influence of 0panish democrati$ation on all of Jatin America). 9ost dramatic snowballing in &astern &urope in !:?:. E - )emonstration effects were more influential at the &%) of the wave than at the beginning. At the end of the !:?<s, demonstration effects influenced countries where other conditions for democrac" were wea3 or absent. C42C15S$42S 2hese were the general causes of the Erd wave of democrati$ation, 5uite different from causes of the first two waves. ,elative significance of these causes varied b" region and evolved as the E rd wave progressed. &mergence of social, economic and external conditions favorable to democrac" is necessary, but not sufficient, to produce democrac": political leaders have to be willing to ta3e the ris3 of democrac" to ma3e it happen.