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ECO 173: Research Paper How statistics helps to identify talents in the recruitment process of AIESEC

Prepared for: Dr. Gour Gobinda Goswami Chairman Economics Department !orth South "ni#ersity Dha$a

Prepared by: S. %. &an#eer Saad ID no. '() )*( '+' EC, )-+ Section .

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Abs rac
The following research has been done on candidates who applied for membership in AIESEC at a certain period of time. Basically recruitment in AIESEC is quite lengthy process. Firstly candidate has to fill!up the application form properly. The application form is a brief description of the candidate. It reflects their personal information gender C"#A total earned credits hours spending internet affiliations with other clubs issues interested s$ills gained e%pected hours spending per wee$s for AIESEC etc. After screening the forms if the candidate is suitable he&she gets call for inter'iew. If the candidate passes the inter'iew AIESEC selects him&her as a probationary member for two months. (uring his&her probationary period the applicant has to face se'eral tas$s and complete those tas$s within deadline. After two months the probationary member)s o'erall performance during his&her probation period determines he&she will be gi'en membership or not. *hat I will try to e%plain here is that the o'erall performance during the probation period is actually dependent on the quality of the candidate)s application form.

!able of Con en s
Con en
o Introduction o Data Source o About the %odel o Hypothesis o Assumptions o 0imitations o %odel Estimations o Interpretations o %odel 2erification o Analysis of 4raphs o %odel &estin4 o Conclusion

Pa"e
( ( ( / / / 1 3 3 )' )+

#n rod$c ion:
In this project I will try to explain, the overall performance during the probation period of an AIESEC applicant is actually dependent on the quality of the candidate s application form! "his means, how the probationary member will perform in his#her first two month in AIESEC will depend on his#her filled$out application form which actually means his#her total earned credits, C%&A, hours spending internet, affiliations with other clubs, s'ills gained, expected hours spending per wee's etc!

I will do multiple regression analysis to predict the outcome! (ecause in statistics, it examines the relation of a dependent variable )response variable* to specified independent variables )predictors*! +y focus is regarding the relationship between applicant s performance and their quality! So, through regression analysis I ll try to explain the relationship!

%a a &o$rce:
"he entire project will be based on AIESEC s primary data! "hat means through the filled$out application forms )Appendix ,* of -. probationary members )Appendix /* who applied in 0une /..1 recruitment and final evaluation sheets )Appendix 2* after the end of their probation period provided by the 34 3ead of AIESEC! "hough the data is extremely confidential and nearly impossible to collect by externals, I didn t have any problem since I m the current 34 3ead of AIESEC! So, I hope you will also 'eep it confidential!

Abo$

he 'odel:

As I mentioned earlier in this multiple regression model, I will try to explain the relationship between AIESEC applicants probation$period performance )based on / months evaluation* and their quality )based on their application form filled by themselves*! &robation$period performance depends on the primary tas' performance evaluation, assessing team wor's, and measuring consistency of the candidate! 5here as application form s quality depends on so many things but just to avoid complications we will only count his#her gender, total earned credits, C%&A, hours spending internet, affiliations with other clubs, s'ills gained, expected

hours spending per wee's for AIESEC, and number of issues interested! So, here dependent variable is over all performance of probation$period, and independent variables are other factors that represent the application form! "he following is the listing of the dependent and the explanatory variables along with the regression coefficients!

6 7 8verall performance

9, 7 "otal academic credits earned by the candidate! 9/ 7 Current C%&A of the candidate! 92 7 "otal hours spending on internet per day! 91 7 :umber of affiliations with other clubs! 9- 7 Candidate s gender specification! 9; 7 :umber of s'ills gained by the candidate! 9< 7 Candidate s expected hours spending per wee's for AIESEC! 9= 7 :umber of world issues the candidate is interested in!

b, 7 Coefficient of academic credits earned by the candidate! b/ 7 Coefficient of current C%&A of the candidate! b2 7 Coefficient of total hours spending on internet per day! b1 7 Coefficient of number of affiliations with other clubs! b- 7 Coefficient of the candidate s gender specification! b; 7 Coefficient of number of s'ills gained by the candidate! b< 7 Coefficient of the candidate s expected hours spending per wee's for AIESEC! b= 7 Coefficient of the number of world issues the candidate is interested in! b. 7 Interception of the regression line!

(ypo hesis:
>rom this existing regression model, I m expecting to get a positive relationship between the dependent and the explanatory variables! +y assumption is that the quality of application form has a great positive impact on the overall performance! "herefore, I would state my null hypothesis for the model that there is a negative relation between application form s quality and overall performance during probationary period!

Ass$)p ions:
>or this model we are considering the assumptions that are imposed on the random error ? in the classical model@ o o o All 9 s are fixed or if they are random they are uncorrelated with the error term! Errors terms are Aero expectationsB E )?i* 7 . for all observations! Errors terms have same variance for all observations! "his condition is called homoscedasticity! E )?i/* 7 C/D for all observations! o "he error terms for any two different observations are not correlated with one another! E )?i ?j* 7 . for i E j! o >or multiple regression models we need another additional assumption! "hat is, all the repressors are linearly independent there is no question of multicollinearity!

*i)i a ions:
"he major conceptual limitation of all regression methods is that one can only establish relationships, but never be sure about underlying mechanism! >or example, we would find a strong positive relationship )correlation* between quality of forms and post probation performance! 5e cannot conclude this as the ultimate decision as my research has not loo'ed into other internal or external factors or variables, such as personal IF, competencies, adaptations, smartness etc!

'odel Es i)a ions:

15/04/2007 15:38:04
Welcome to Minitab, press F1 for help.

Regression Analysis: Overall Performa versus Cre i!s Passe " C#PA" $$$
The regression equation Overall Performance = 4 ( ! ( ( ( is 1 ! ".4# $re%its Passe% ! #. $&P' 4".) *ours spen%ing on internet ).+ 'ffiliations ,ith other clubs ( ../# 0umber of s1ills gaine% 4.)" 23pecte% hrs spen%ing per ,ee1 "1.- 0umber of issues intereste% $oef 4 #.. !". /! #. " 4".--# ! ).+ .+../#4 4.)1+ "1.- + 42 $oef 1#-. #./# 1 1/..4 +..+1 .)1 1)." ../#" ".)4" -. 4T 4.#1 !".+. !1... +..1 !".)# 1.). 1.## 1.+/ "./+ P #.### #.#11 #.1") #.### #.##) #.#-" #. " #.#/) #.##.

.- &en%er

Pre%ictor $onstant $re%its Passe% $&P' *ours spen%ing on internet 'ffiliations ,ith other clubs &en%er 0umber of s1ills gaine% 23pecte% hrs spen%ing per ,ee1 0umber of issues intereste% 4 = .-."/)1 5!4q = )/. 6

5!4q7a%89 = )-."6

'nal:sis of ;ariance 4ource 5egression 5esi%ual 2rror Total <F ) 41 4/ 44 11"+./4 1 4+#+ 1"+1"## M4 14#)"4 ") F 4".)/ P #.###

4ource $re%its Passe% $&P' *ours spen%ing on internet 'ffiliations ,ith other clubs &en%er 0umber of s1ills gaine% 23pecte% hrs spen%ing per ,ee1 0umber of issues intereste% =nusual Observations Obs 11 1" $re%its Passe% 4".# +.# Overall Performance 4.#.## ..#.##

<F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

4eq 44 4114-+ 1#/.) . 41-. 111".1 11+/# -.1/ 1#-/1 ")- 4

Fit ..-.)" +.4.1/

42 Fit ").#+ #. "

5esi%ual !1#-.)" !1#4.1/

4t 5esi% !".1+5 !".145

5 %enotes an observation ,ith a large stan%ar%i>e% resi%ual.

#n erpre a ions:
%0 & 431: "he intercept gives us an interesting result! It says that when an applicant, no matter male or female, who applied in AIESEC and selected as a probationary member but did not mention anything in the application form or put G.H to all answers will end up having 12, points after two months of probation period! 8ne reason for that, perhaps the candidate is very potential but did not fill$up the form properly %1 & '2$40: "his indicates, when an applicant passes one more credit, his#her overall performance during probationary period decreases by $/!1. points while other factors remain constant! It s because, when a person s credit is increasing, he#she is actually ta'ing more higher level courses! As a result, s#he gets less time to concentrate in AIESEC activities! So, his#her performance decreases! %2 & '30$3: It shows, when a candidate s C%&A increases by one more point, his#her AIESEC performance decreases by $2.!2 points while other factors remain constant! (ecause, only then a person s C%&A increases when he#she gives more time on studies, less time on other things! %3 & 42$8: It means, when a person spend one extra hour on internet, his#her overall performance increases by 1/!= points, while other things remain constant! It s because, AIESEC is a global organiAation, and most of its wor' is done virtually, over the internet! So, if a person spends more time on internet, more tas's are completed! So, performance increases! %4 & '38$(: So, when an applicant joins one more club, while other things remain constantB his#her overall performance decreases by $2=!; points! "his means, affiliating with more clubs hampers his#her AIESEC performance, probably because he#she becomes defocused form his wor' or he#she gets less time for AIESEC activities! %5 & 33$7: Iummy variables have been used in this case, where G.H denotes female, and G,H denotes male! So, if every thing remains constant then male is getting 22!< points more than the female after their / months probationary period! It s probably because male can give more time to AIESEC than that of female or male can finish a hard tas' more effectively or efficiently than female! %( & 5$)0: It signifies, when an applicant adds one more s'ill, his#her performance rating increases by -!J. points after probationary period, while other factors remain constant!

%7 & 4$82: "his specifies, when a candidate expected to spend one more hour in AIESEC, his#her overall rating increases by 1!=/ points, while other things remain unchanged! %8 & 21$7: It denotes that, when a person is interested about one more world issue, his#her evaluation mar's after probation period increases by /,!< points, whereas other factors remain constant!

'odel +erifica ion:


"he model totally supports my assumptions! Iefinitely candidate s application form s quality has a strong positive impact on the evaluation mar's of the probationary period! It s because, -#= of the explanatory variables have positive relationship with the performance!

3ere in this model R2 & 8)$3* it means =J!2K of the variation in the overall performance during probation period is explained by the regression model! +oreover, A +us!e R2 & 87$2* So, the difference between 4 / and Adjusted 4/ is very low )/!,K*, which is a good sign! "herefore, reviewing the whole thing we can say that the model is good!

Analysis of "raphs:
Individual graphs for performance rating with each independent variable are provided in next page! If we can carefully analysis the graph we will find that, other than the total credit passed, C%&A, and affiliation with other clubs, all the other graphs show very steep positive slopes! "hat means those variables have direct or indirect positive impact on the performance assessment rating after probation period! "hat means, If those increases, rating will also increase!

'odel !es in": &est of si4nificance for the whole re4ression 567test89
3.@ L, 7 L/ 7 L2 7 L1 7 L- 7 L;7 L< 7 L= 7 . 3a@ At least one pair E . 5e reject the null hypothesis at any significant level above the p$value! 3ere, p$value is .!...! As a result, 3. is rejected!

Hypothesis test for coefficients 5&7test89


Each of the coefficients are going to be tested to see if they individually have any influence on the dependent variable, 'eeping the other variable constant!

,y-o!.esis !es! for /0: 3. @ L. 7 ., 3a @ L. E .

5e reject the null hypothesis at any significant level above the p$value! 3ere, p$value is .!...! As a result, 3. is rejected! "herefore, the rejection of the null hypothesis tells us that the regression coefficient, b . is related with the dependent variable 6! ,y-o!.esis !es! for /1: 3. @ L, 7 ., 3a @ L, E .
)n$'$,, N#/*

5e will reject the null hypothesis if Calculated t M Critical t 3ere, Calculated t 7 /!;-, and Critical t
)n$'$,, N#/*

7 t )1,, .!./-* 7 /!.

/!;- M /!. So, we will reject the null hypothesis! "he rejection of the null hypothesis tells us that the coefficient of academic credits earned by the candidate )b ,* is related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! Confi en0e 1n!erval for /1 b, $ Sb, O t )n$'$,, N#/* P L, P b, Q Sb, O t )n$'$,, N#/* $/!2J<2 R .!J.2, O /!. P L, P $/!2J<2 Q .!J.2, O /!. $;!;..= P L, P $/!J==1

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"herefore, the J-K confidence interval for the expected decrease in overall performance rating during probation period resulting from an academic credit increase lies in the range $;!;..= to $/!J==1 ,y-o!.esis !es! for /2: 3. @ L/ 7 ., 3a @ L/ E .
)n$'$,, N#/*

5e reject the null hypothesis if Calculated t M Critical t 3ere, Calculated t 7 ,!--, and Critical t
)n$'$,, N#/*

7 t )1,, .!./-* 7 /!.

,!-- P /!. So, we will not reject the null hypothesis! It means that, the coefficient of current C%&A of the candidate )b/* is not related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! Confi en0e 1n!erval for /2 b/ $ Sb/ O t )n$'$,, N#/* P L/ P b/ Q Sb/ O t )n$'$,, N#/* $2.!2/ $ ,J!-1 O /!. P L/ P $2.!2/ Q ,J!-1 O /!. $JJ!</ P L/ P $/,!-; "herefore, the J-K confidence interval for the expected decrease in overall performance rating during probation period resulting from C%&A increase lies in the range $JJ!</ to $/,!-; ,y-o!.esis !es! for /3: 3. @ L2 7 ., 3a @ L2 E .
)n$'$,, N#/*

5e reject the null hypothesis if Calculated t M Critical t 3ere, Calculated t 7 ;!-,, and Critical t
)n$'$,, N#/*

7 t )1,, .!./-* 7 /!.

;!-, M /!. So, we will reject the null hypothesis! "he rejection of the null hypothesis tells us that the coefficient of total hours spending on internet per day )b 2* is related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! Confi en0e 1n!erval for /3 b2 $ Sb2 O t )n$'$,, N#/* P L2 P b2 Q Sb2 O t )n$'$,, N#/* /J!;2; P L2 P --!J.1 "herefore, the J-K confidence interval for the expected increase in overall performance rating during probation period resulting from hours spending on internet per day lies in the range /J!;2; to --!J.1

,y-o!.esis !es! for /4:

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3. @ L1 7 .,

3a @ L1 E .

5e will reject the null hypothesis at any significant level above the p$value! 3ere, p$value is .!..= So, .!.- M .!..= As a result, 3. is rejected at -K level of significant! "herefore, the rejection of the null hypothesis tells us that, the coefficient of number of affiliations with other clubs )b 1* is related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! Confi en0e 1n!erval for /4 b1 $ Sb1 O t )n$'$,, N#/* P L1 P b1 Q Sb1 O t )n$'$,, N#/* $;;!/- P L1 P $,,!., "herefore, the J-K confidence interval for the expected decrease in overall performance rating during probation period resulting from affiliations with other clubs lies in the range $;;!/- to $,,!., ,y-o!.esis !es! for /5: 3. @ L- 7 ., 3a @ L- E .

5e will reject the null hypothesis at any significant level above the p$value! 3ere, p$value is .!.</ So, .!.- P .!.</ "herefore, 3. is not rejected at -K level of significant! It implies that, the coefficient of candidate s gender specification )b -* is not related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! ,y-o!.esis !es! for /(: 3. @ L; 7 ., 3a @ L; E .

5e will reject the null hypothesis at any significant level above the p$value! 3ere, p$value is .!2/2 So, .!.- P .!2/2 "herefore, 3. is not rejected at -K level of significant! It implies that, the coefficient of number of s'ills gained by the candidate )b;* is not related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! ,y-o!.esis !es! for /7: 3. @ L< 7 ., 3a @ L< E .

5e will reject the null hypothesis at any significant level above the p$value! 3ere, p$value is .!.J= So, .!.- P .!.J= "herefore, 3. is not rejected at -K level of significant! It implies that, the coefficient of the candidate s expected hours spending per wee's for AIESEC )b<* is not related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! ,y-o!.esis !es! for /8:

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3. @ L= 7 .,

3a @ L= E .
)n$'$,, N#/*

5e will reject the null hypothesis if Calculated t M Critical t 3ere, Calculated t 7 /!J;, and Critical t
)n$'$,, N#/*

7 t )1,, .!./-* 7 /!.

/!J; M /!. So, we will reject the null hypothesis! "he rejection of the null hypothesis tells us that the coefficient of the number of world issues the candidate is interested in )b =* is related with the overall performance rating during probationary period )6*! Confi en0e 1n!erval for /8 b= $ Sb= O t )n$'$,, N#/* P L= P b= Q Sb= O t )n$'$,, N#/* <!.1/ P L= P 2;!12 "herefore, the J-K confidence interval for the expected increase in overall performance rating during probation period resulting from number of world issues the candidate is interested in, lies in the range <!.1/ to 2;!12

Concl$sion:
If I can closely loo' into my paper, I will find the relationship between the candidates filled$out application forms quality and their overall performance rating after their probation period! "hese types of analysis can greatly help a 3uman 4esources professional to recruit right types of talents in the organiAation!

!he End

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Appendi, 1
-.lan/ Applica ion 0or)1

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Appendi, 2
-Proba ionary 'e)ber *is 1

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Appendi, 3
-.lan/ 0inal E2al$a ion &hee 1

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Appendi, 3
-!he Research Proposal1

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