INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol.

31: 18131822 (2011) Published online 19 July 2010 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.2205

Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation over Utah, USA
Carlos A. C. dos Santos,a * Christopher M. U. Neale,b Tantravahi V. R. Raoa and Bernardo B. da Silvaa
a

Department of Atmospheric Science, Federal University of Campina Grande, Avenida Apr gio Veloso, 882, Bodocong o, Campina Grande, PB, CEP: 58109-970, Brazil b Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Utah State University, 4110 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-4110, USA

ABSTRACT: The main objective of this study was to analyse the trends in 20 annual extreme indices of temperature and precipitation for Utah, USA. The analyses were conducted for 28 meteorological stations, during the period from 1930 to 2006, characterized by a long-term and high-quality dataset. The software used to process the data was the RClimdex 1.0. The analyses of extreme temperature indices have identied an increase in air temperature in Utah during the last century. Meanwhile, the analyses of precipitation indices showed a large variation throughout the studied area and time period, and, in general, with few statistically signicant trends. Thus, it was not possible to conclude that signicant changes in precipitation have occurred in this region over the last century. Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS

climate change; RClimdex; climatology; global warming; quality control; environmental impact

Received 19 May 2009; Revised 18 March 2010; Accepted 16 June 2010

1.

Introduction

There is growing evidence that the global changes in extremes of climatic variables observed in recent decades can only be accounted when anthropogenic and natural factors are considered (Alexander et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007). Folland et al. (2001) showed that in some regions both temperature and precipitation extremes have already shown amplied responses to changes in mean values. Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, oods and droughts, can have strong impact on society and ecosystems and are thus important to study (Moberg and Jones, 2005; Toreti and Desiato, 2008; Choi et al., 2009). It is widely conceived that with the increase of air temperature, the water cycling process will be accelerated, resulting in an increase of precipitation amount and intensity. Karl and Knight (1998) found that the 8% increase in precipitation across the continuous USA since 1910 is reected primarily in heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. These results were conrmed in Kunkel et al. (1999) that found national trend in short-duration (17 days) extreme precipitation events for the USA increasing at a rate of 3% decade1 for the period between 1931 and 1996. While evidences of increasing trends are presented in the USA and many other regions, statistically signicant decreasing trends in extreme rainfall events have also been found,
* Correspondence to: Carlos A. C. dos Santos, Department of Atmospheric Science, Federal University of Campina Grande, Avenida Apr gio Veloso, 882, Bodocong o, Campina Grande, PB, CEP: 58109970, Brazil. E-mail: carlostorm@gmail.com Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

including the Sahel region of Nigeria (Tarhule and Woo, 1998), Australia (Haylock and Nicholls, 2000), Asia and central Pacic (Grifths et al., 2003), UK (Osbom et al., 2000) and some parts of India (Roy and Balling, 2004). Therefore, the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation are complex and vary over the world (Wang et al., 2008). Many studies have investigated climate change and extremes on different scales (Easterling et al., 2000; Brunetti et al., 2004; Vincent et al., 2005; Brunetti et al., 2006; Haylock et al., 2006; Santos and Brito, 2007). However, IPCC (2001, 2007) in its reports evidenced the need for more detailed information about regional patterns of climate change. The climate features of Utah in the USA are determined by its distance from the Equator, elevation above sea level and distance from the Pacic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico (main moisture sources for the region). Also, the mountain ranges over the western USA have a marked inuence on the climate of Utah. During the past four decades, precipitation near the central Intermountain Region has experienced a pronounced increase in temporal variability (Wang et al., 2008). The prevailing westerly air currents reaching Utah are comparatively dry, resulting in light precipitation over most of the State (Moller and Gillies, 2008). To gain an understanding of Utah climate, a study using weather station data to analyse the local climate variability is warranted, to establish which areas of this region are being more affected by climate change.

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(a)

The Expert Team on climate change detection, monitoring and indices, sponsored by WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Commission for Climatology (CCI) and the Climate Variability and Predictability project (CLIVAR) has developed a set of indices (Peterson et al., 2001) that represents a common guideline for regional analysis of climate. This study attempts to provide new information on trends, in regional scale, using long-term records of daily air temperature and precipitation over Utah, USA, through the analysis of different indices based on observational data from multiple stations in the region. This analysis is important for Utah since any change in climate can have large impacts on the daily life of the population and environment dependent on scarce water resources for agricultural and municipal use.

(b)

2. 2.1.

Material and methods Data and quality control

Daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and daily precipitation data were taken from 28 meteorological stations across Utah, USA, between 3741 N latitude and 109114 W longitude and, in general, for the period between 1930 and 2006. This period has been chosen because it characterizes a long-term dataset for each station. The map of station locations is shown in Figure 1; the numbers indicating the stations with their names and coordinates shown in Table I. The dataset was provided by Utah Climate Center at Utah State University. An exhaustive data quality control (QC) was conducted because indices of extremes are sensitive to changes in station location, exposure, equipment and observer practice (Haylock et al., 2006). Data QC is a prerequisite for determining climatic indices. The QC module of the RClimdex software performs the following procedures: (1) replaces all missing values (currently coded as 99.9) into an internal format that the software recognizes (i.e. NA, not available) and (2) replaces all unreasonable values into NA. Those values include: (a) daily precipitation amounts less than zero and (b) daily maximum temperature less than daily minimum temperature. In addition, the QC also identied outliers in daily maximum and minimum temperature. The outliers are daily values outside a range dened by the user. Currently, this range is dened as n times standard deviation (STD) of the value for the day, that is (mean n STD, mean + n STD), where STD for the day and n is an input from the user (Zhang and Yang, 2004; Vincent et al., 2005). Initially, data from 50 meteorological stations were available, and after the QC, only stations with less than 10% of missing data for a period of at least 50 years were considered, resulting in the 28 stations used in the analyses (Table I). 2.2. Methodology

Figure 1. (a) Map of the USA with the state of Utah highlighted and (b) map of Utah with the locations of the stations used in this study. The numbers relate to the name, latitude, longitude and elevation of the selected stations given in Table I. In general, the time series used for these stations was from 1930 to 2006.

The RClimdex 1.0 software developed by Xuebin Zhang and Feng Yang from Canadian Meteorological Service (Zhang and Yang, 2004) was used in this study to obtain
Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

the climatic extremes indices, following methodologies of Zhang et al. (2005a,b) and Haylock et al. (2006). RClimdex provided 20 extreme climate indices, which were chosen for discussion here: 11 indices based on air temperature data and nine based on precipitation data (Table II) because they better explain the climate behaviour of Utah (Moller and Gillies, 2008). The resulting series were analysed through trends. The slopes of the annual trends of the climate indices were calculated based on a least square linear tting. Trends were obtained for each index at the 28 locations and the statistical signicance of the trends were assessed through the Students t -test and the number of degrees of freedom was obtained based on the length of the dataset, i.e. 76 for the 19302006 (Haylock et al., 2006; Santos and Brito, 2007; Dufek and Ambrizzi, 2008). The Students t -test for 76 degrees of freedom gives a threshold of 1.67 for the identication of statistically signicant trends at the 95% condence level. Hence, the trends considered signicant in this study are those for a threshold 1.67.
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Table I. Meteorological stations used for the analysis of maximum and minimum daily air temperature and daily precipitation in Utah, USA. ID Station Latitude Longitude Elevation (N) (W) (m) 37.633 37.440 37.613 41.825 37.769 39.258 39.174 37.709 40.491 40.168 39.554 38.966 41.043 38.150 37.027 38.708 40.527 41.745 40.364 40.079 39.267 38.371 41.244 39.899 37.149 40.778 37.208 38.574 112.183 112.482 109.485 111.321 111.598 111.631 111.029 113.094 111.426 110.395 111.867 112.328 111.672 109.782 112.537 112.953 112.298 111.803 109.345 111.604 112.652 110.715 111.946 113.713 109.868 111.969 112.984 109.546 2412 2146 1855 1823 1771 1750 1713 1703 1716 1682 1612 1561 1551 1523 1506 1492 1545 1460 1448 1439 1399 1313 1326 1320 1254 1288 1234 1241

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Bryce Canyon Alton Blanding Laketown Escalante Manti Castle Dale Cedar City Heber Duchesne Levan Fillmore Morgan Power & Light Canyonlands Kanab Black Rock Tooele Logan Jensen Spanish Fork Deseret Hanksville Ogden Callao Mexican Hat Salt Lake City Zions National Park Moab

To run the RClimdex 1.0 software, the format of the input data le has several requirements: (1) ASCII text le; (2) Column sequence: year, month, day, PRCP, TMAX and TMIN. (Note : precipitation units = millimeters and temperature units = degrees Celsius); (3) the format as described above was space delimited (e.g. each element was separated by one or more spaces) and (4) for data records, missing data were coded as 99.9 and data records were in calendar date order (Zhang and Yang, 2004). The spatial distribution of the indices trends was represented using the symbols (tabgure1000) for positive and () for negative trends, statistically signicant at 95% level, i.e. p < 0.05. The representation of the trends which are statistically nonsignicant at the 95% level used the symbols (+) for positive and ( ) for negative trends.

3.

Results

3.1. Temperature indices analyses Table III shows the decadal trends, i.e. trends for 10 years, of the extreme indices of air temperature in Utah, obtained by using the software RClimdex 1.0, for 28 stations. The bold and highlighted values represent signicant level of 5% (p < 0.05) and values only highlighted represent signicant level of 10% (0.05 < p < 0.1). The discussions presented in this study are only for those trends that showed signicant level of 5%. The index Summer Days (SU) showed with positive trend at ten stations and negative trend at three, evidencing an overall increase in the annual number of days when

Table II. Denition of extreme air temperature and precipitation indices used in this study. Indices SU ID TR FD TXx TNx TXn TNn WSDI CSDI DTR RX1day Rx5day SDII R10 mm CDD CWD R95p R99p PRCPTOT Name Summer days Iced days Tropical nights Frost days Max Tmax Max Tmin Min Tmax Min Tmin Warm spell duration indicator Cold spell duration indicator Diurnal temperature range Max 1-day precipitation amount Max 5-day precipitation amount Simple daily intensity index Number of heavy precipitation days Consecutive dry days Consecutive wet days Very wet days Extremely wet days Annual total wet-day precipitation Denition Annual count when TX(daily maximum) >25 C Annual count when TX(daily maximum) <0 C Annual count when TN(daily minimum) >20 C Annual count when TN(daily minimum) <0 C Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temp Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temp Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temp Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temp Annual count of days with at least six consecutive days when TX >90th percentile Annual count of days with at least six consecutive days when TN <10th percentile Monthly mean difference between TX and TN Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation Annual mean precipitation when PRCP > = 1.0 mm Annual count of days when PRCP > = 10 mm Maximum number of consecutive days with RR <1 mm Maximum number of consecutive days with RR > = 1 mm Annual total PRCP when RR >95p Annual total PRCP when RR >99p Annual total PRCP in wet days (RR > = 1 mm) Units Days Days Days Days C C C C Days Days
C mm mm mm Days Days Days

mm mm mm

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Table III. Decadal trends of the extreme indices of air temperature for Utah, USA.
Station Bryce Canyon Alton Blanding Laketown Escalante Manti Castle Dale Cedar City Heber Duchesne Levan Fillmore Morgan Power & Light Canyonlands Kanab Black Rock Tooele Logan Jensen Spanish Fork Deseret Hanksville Ogden Callao Mexican Hat Salt Lake City Zions N. Park Moab SU 1.88 5.45 2.84 1.31 4.07 0.03 1.15 0.26 0.72 0.75 0.39 1.74 0.06 0.28 0.03 0.20 1.68 0.42 0.93 1.34 0.79 2.50 1.10 5.29 4.68 0.18 1.02 3.75 ID 2.53 1.25 1.07 0.00 1.80 0.44 3.56 0.28 0.19 1.22 0.05 1.46 0.35 1.11 0.14 0.36 0.45 0.02 2.35 0.77 0.03 0.67 0.12 2.98 2.17 0.81 0.06 1.95 TR 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 3.79 0.11 0.04 0.68 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.05 0.31 0.82 0.68 4.50 1.96 0.43 0.88 FD 3.33 0.09 2.75 1.94 4.41 0.93 0.22 0.51 2.58 3.29 0.00 2.24 7.32 2.71 2.07 3.33 0.57 1.04 1.99 2.06 0.51 0.60 2.24 3.40 3.88 3.77 1.20 0.08 TXx 0.14 0.41 0.34 0.15 0.52 0.10 0.27 0.19 0.03 0.10 0.28 0.31 0.26 0.34 0.06 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.11 0.18 0.21 0.55 0.12 0.73 0.14 0.06 0.12 0.57 TXn 0.39 0.32 0.31 0.07 1.03 0.13 0.87 0.37 0.13 0.03 0.08 0.28 0.38 0.48 0.15 0.32 0.19 0.05 0.71 0.02 0.06 0.25 0.03 1.08 2.01 0.29 0.30 1.01 TNx 0.20 0.18 0.07 0.04 0.31 0.24 0.10 0.11 0.07 0.18 0.01 0.01 0.47 0.45 0.02 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.01 0.29 0.17 0.64 0.72 0.30 0.02 0.13 TNn 1.21 0.26 0.53 0.30 1.04 0.47 0.84 0.65 0.38 0.67 0.41 0.32 1.13 0.99 0.74 0.54 0.17 0.31 0.73 0.33 0.19 0.29 0.48 0.54 1.02 0.63 0.11 0.96 WSDI 0.16 1.90 2.41 0.61 3.75 0.54 1.99 1.20 0.96 0.00 0.21 0.76 0.75 0.13 0.51 0.81 1.08 0.51 0.89 0.75 0.00 0.71 0.03 0.51 1.53 0.07 1.15 2.96 CSDI 0.63 0.17 0.67 0.30 0.55 0.12 0.02 0.29 0.33 1.62 0.18 0.10 1.41 0.20 0.52 0.38 0.01 0.60 0.45 0.66 0.62 0.72 0.35 1.31 2.51 0.87 0.03 0.16 DTR 0.49 0.28 0.03 0.20 0.05 0.13 0.21 0.00 0.15 0.25 0.02 0.27 0.45 0.34 0.15 0.23 0.07 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.04 0.00 0.17 0.19 0.06 0.24 0.12 0.40

The bold and highlighted values represent signicance at 5% level (p < 0.05), and values only highlighted represent signicance at 10% level (0.05 < p < 0.1).

the maximum air temperature was higher than 25 C. The spatial distribution trend of this index is shown in Figure 2(a). The index Iced Days (ID) showed seven stations with negative trends, one station with positive trend and one station (Laketown) that did not present any trend (trend = 0), showing that the annual number of days when the maximum air temperature was less than 0 C is decreasing. These results are consistent with those shown by SU index. Figure 2(b) shows the spatial distribution trends of ID index; in general, the signicant values are in the southern portion of the studied area. It is possible to identify the heterogeneous behaviour of the indices presenting positive and negative trends. These results are in agreement with those of Karl et al. (1996). Tropical Nights (TR) index shows eight stations with positive trends and one station with no trend. These results show that the annual number of days when the minimum air temperature is higher than 20 C is increasing; the spatial distribution is shown in Figure 2(c), presenting predominant increase in the northern and eastern areas of Utah. The Frost Days (FD) index presented only negative trends (15 stations) as shown in Figure 2(d) evidencing the homogeneous behaviour of this index in the studied area. The Max Tmax (TXx) index, i.e. monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature, presented 13 stations with positive trends and three stations
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with negative trends, showing a predominant increase in the monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature in this area (Figure 2(e)). It is possible to observe in Min Tmax (TXn) index a similar behaviour, with only positive trends (nine stations), showing that the monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature is increasing as well. The spatial distribution is shown in Figure 2(f) and these results indicate an increase in the temperature in the studied area. The Max Tmin (TNx) index, i.e. monthly maximum value of daily minimum air temperature, shows nine stations with positive trends and one station with negative trend (Figure 2(g)). The Min Tmin (TNn) index presented a similar behaviour with only positive trends (15 stations), indicating that the minimum temperature is also increasing in this region (Figure 2(h)). The increase of the air temperature in the study area was also previously identied by Karl et al. (1996) and Alexander et al. (2006). The Warm Spell Duration Indicator (WSDI) index, that represents the annual count of days with at least six consecutive days on which TX is more than the 90th percentile, showed nine stations with positive trends and two stations with negative trends (Figure 2(i)), evidencing the increase of warm spell duration. Figure 2(j) shows the spatial distribution of Cold Spell Duration Indicator (CSDI) index that represents the annual count of days
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with at least six consecutive days where TN is less than the tenth percentile. Table III shows that the CSDI index presented only negative trends (eight stations) evidencing that cold spell durations are decreasing; this result is in agreement with the result presented by the WSDI. In addition, Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) index shows negative trends at 14 stations and positive trends at four stations (Figure 2(k)), indicating that the monthly mean difference between maximum and minimum temperature is decreasing in the studied area. These results are in agreement with the results obtained for TXx, TXn, TNx and TNn indices and are similar to the results obtained by Alexander et al. (2006). To assist with the interpretation of gures that involve analyses of temperature extreme indices, the percentage of stations with statistically signicant and insignicant trends at the 5% level were calculated and are shown in Table IV. It can be observed that 35.7% of the stations show a signicant increase in SU, as well as 32.1% in TR, 46.4% in TXx, 32.1% in TXn, TNx and WSDI and 53.6% in TNn, indicating an increase of temperature. While there is a signicant decrease of 25% in ID, 53.6% in FD, 28.6% in CSDI and 50% in DTR, indicating a decrease in these indices consistent with the results previously shown.
(a) (b)

Table IV. The percentage of stations showing signicant and not signicant trends at the 5% level for the temperature and precipitation indices for Utah, USA. Indice Positive Positive not Negative Negative not signicant signicant signicant signicant trend (%) trend (%) trend (%) trend (%) 35.7 7.1 32.1 0 14.3 46.4 32.1 32.1 53.6 32.1 0 14.3 7.1 10.7 7.1 21.4 0 32.1 14.3 7.1 25 42.9 21.4 46.4 14.3 60.7 39.3 53.6 53.6 46.4 39.3 10.7 14.3 64.3 78.6 42.9 46.4 17.9 42.9 53.6 32.1 60.7 10.7 25 0 53.6 0 10.7 0 3.6 0 7.1 28.6 50 0 0 17.9 3.6 17.9 3.6 7.1 3.6 3.6 10.7 46.4 21.4 32.1 25 3.6 14.3 10.7 0 21.4 60.7 21.4 28.6 10.1 32.1 25 64.3 21.4 25 53.6 10.7

SU ID TR FD GSL TXx TXn TNx TNn WSDI CSDI DTR RX1day RX5day SDII R10mm CDD CWD R95p R99p PRCPTOT

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

Figure 2. Spatial distribution of temperature extreme trends for Utah, USA. The symbol ( ) for positive and ( ) for negative trends, statistically signicant at 95% level (p < 0.05), while the symbols (+) for positive and ( ) for negative trends statistically nonsignicant.

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C. A. C. DOS SANTOS et al.

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Figure 2. (Continued ).

3.2.

Precipitation indices analyses

Table V presents the decadal trends of the extreme indices of precipitation obtained for 28 locations in Utah. The bold and highlighted values represent signicant level of 5% (p < 0.05) and values only highlighted represent signicant level of 10% (0.05 < p < 0.1). Only the trends of precipitation indices that are signicant at 5% level are discussed. As the precipitation indices have a large variation, the number of trends with statistical signicance is less than those of temperature indices. The index Max 1-Day precipitation amount (RX1day) showed only positive trends (two stations) with statistical signicance, but positive trends were predominant (20 stations). The spatial distribution of this index is shown in Figure 3(a). The index Max 5-Day precipitation amount (RX5day) showed also positive trends (three stations); however, the trends of two out of the three stations coincide with each other (Figure 3(b)), evidencing the increase of precipitation in one and ve consecutive days at these locations. Kunkel et al. (1999) and Alexander et al. (2006) found similar increases of precipitation in this area of the USA. Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) shows ve stations with negative trends and one station with positive trend and its spatial distribution is shown in Figure 3(c). The
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Number of Heavy Precipitation Days (R10 mm) index presented only two stations with negative trends and one station with positive trend, as shown in Figure 3(d). The Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) index (maximum number of consecutive days with daily precipitation less than 1 mm) presented only negative trends (ve stations) (Figure 3(e)), showing a predominant decrease and corroborating an increase of days with precipitation greater than 1 mm as seen in Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) index that presented nine stations with positive trends and only one station with negative trend (Figure 3(f)). The agreement between these two indices shows that the wet conditions in this region are increasing as discussed in Karl et al. (1996). The Very Wet Days (R95p) index presented four stations with positive trends and two stations with negative trends, as shown in Figure 3(g). The spatial distribution of Extremely Wet Days (R99p) index is presented in Figure 3(h) and shows two stations with positive trends and one station with negative trend. The last index to be analysed is Annual Total Wet-day Precipitation (PRCPTOT) that showed positive trends at seven stations and a negative trend at only one station, which evidences an increase in total annual precipitation in the studied area, as presented in Figure 3(i). These results are in agreement with Karl et al. (1996), Karl and Knight (1998) and Alexander et al. (2006).
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Table V. Decadal trends of the extreme indices of precipitation for Utah, USA.
Station Bryce Canyon Alton Blanding Laketown Escalante Manti Castle Dale Cedar City Heber Duchesne Levan Fillmore Morgan Power & Light Canyonlands Kanab Black Rock Tooele Logan Jensen Spanish Fork Deseret Hanksville Ogden Callao Mexican Hat Salt Lake City Zions N. Park Moab RX1day 2.55 0.27 0.06 1.42 0.54 0.11 0.63 0.35 0.09 0.10 0.15 1.03 1.14 0.34 1.64 1.27 0.27 0.05 0.37 1.64 0.27 0.31 0.74 0.14 0.93 0.18 0.07 0.39 RX5day 2.67 0.12 0.61 2.99 0.19 0.48 1.58 0.46 0.67 0.09 0.05 0.02 1.51 2.02 2.91 0.77 0.64 1.15 0.27 2.43 0.08 0.55 1.27 1.22 0.54 0.87 0.81 1.59 SDII 0.05 0.03 0.27 0.14 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.25 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.09 0.02 0.15 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.28 0.04 0.04 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.00 R10 mm 0.16 0.14 0.50 0.42 0.13 0.36 0.05 0.39 0.19 0.00 0.26 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.76 0.03 0.28 0.24 0.10 0.91 0.01 0.09 0.39 0.05 0.09 0.31 0.21 0.42 CDD 2.97 0.68 0.45 3.00 1.27 0.10 7.27 1.72 0.17 1.64 1.68 1.47 2.73 4.22 1.74 1.45 0.00 0.58 0.58 1.72 0.64 0.07 0.31 1.65 6.99 0.95 0.77 2.35 CWD 0.28 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.29 0.07 0.09 0.22 0.08 0.03 0.10 0.30 0.14 0.01 0.21 0.06 0.08 0.21 0.03 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.28 0.17 0.07 0.15 R95p 9.39 1.36 5.47 7.01 0.73 1.89 2.24 2.67 0.77 0.20 0.02 9.12 4.02 2.00 10.95 0.64 0.09 2.00 1.53 8.55 0.20 0.70 6.65 0.66 0.04 2.46 5.05 2.12 R99p 4.76 1.54 3.15 4.13 1.52 0.24 1.06 0.59 0.28 0.22 0.05 3.29 3.93 3.14 2.72 1.44 0.77 0.22 0.99 3.37 0.21 0.26 2.17 1.16 0.83 0.86 0.42 0.33 PRCPTOT 11.64 3.34 7.57 12.44 0.88 6.01 7.18 9.80 2.71 1.09 8.16 4.84 8.79 5.54 26.69 4.07 8.32 10.17 0.35 21.15 2.09 3.95 11.67 2.29 6.92 11.54 8.95 9.94

The bold and highlighted values represent signicance at 5% level (p < 0.05) and values only highlighted represent signicance at 10% level (0.05 < p < 0.1).

Table V helps the interpretation of the gures that show the analyses of extreme precipitation indices. The percentages of locations with statistically signicant and insignicant trends at the 5% level are shown in bold. It can be seen in Table IV that 7.1% of the stations show an increase in RX1day, as well as 10.7% in RX5day, 21.4% in R10 mm, 32.1% in CWD, 14.3% in R95p, 7.1% in R99p and 25% in PRCPTOT. These results indicate an increase of precipitation. There is a decrease of 17.9% in SDII and CDD, indicating the agreement in behaviour between different precipitation indices.

4.

Discussion and conclusions

Studies have shown that one of the most important questions regarding extreme events is if their occurrence is increasing or decreasing over time, characterized by the frequency of these events and if they are changing significantly. This study presents analyses of the trends in 20 annual extreme indices of air temperature and precipitation for Utah, USA. The analyses were conducted using long-term and high-quality datasets for 28 meteorological stations, in general, for a period between 1930 and 2006. An increase in the number of days with maximum temperature higher than 25 C was found, and in southern Utah, a decrease in the number of days with maximum
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air temperature less than 0 C was observed. The annual number of days with minimum temperature higher than 20 C is increasing, predominantly in the northern and eastern areas of the state. The number of days, with the daily minimum temperature below zero, showed only negative trends with homogeneous behaviour in the study area. A predominant increase was identied in the maximum air temperature and the warm spell duration increased while the cold spell duration decreased. The difference between maximum and minimum temperatures is decreasing, indicating that the minimum temperature is increasing faster than the maximum temperature. Extreme events of precipitation are a random signal in the climate record and a time series of 76 years is important for a robust trend analysis. Some of the indices in this study can be good indicators for climate extremes in Utah. The precipitation indices showed a large variation for the studied time series and, in general, with few statistically signicant trends. An increase of the precipitation in one and ve consecutive days was observed a possible indication that conditions in the region are becoming wetter. Though total precipitation has increased across the region, not enough cases were statistically signicant for a denite conclusion. Agriculture (crop production and livestock) is an important economic activity in Utah accounting for
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C. A. C. DOS SANTOS et al.

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(d)

(e)

(f)

(g)

(h)

(i)

Figure 3. Spatial distribution of precipitation extreme trends for Utah, USA. The symbol ( ) for positive and () for negative trends, statistically signicant at 95% level (p < 0.05), while the symbols (+) for positive and ( ) for negative trends statistically nonsignicant.

13.9% of the total when considered with the associated processing sector. Crops such as hay, alfalfa, corn, wheat and barley are grown in the arid climate, mostly under irrigation practices. Irrigated agriculture is dependent on winter snowpack accumulation and storage as the main water supply for the summer months. Warming winter trends will lead to more of the precipitation falling as rain, requiring the construction of additional storage capacity to control the runoff hydrograph and match agricultural needs. Rapid population growth will exacerbate the pressure on the water resources. Continuing changes in climate will affect water supply and soil moisture availability, making it less feasible to grow crops in
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certain regions. Increases in extreme events such as oods, droughts and heat waves predicted by IPCC (2007) will pose further challenges to farmers. IPCC (2007) predicts an increase of about 20% in precipitation at high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions, as well as, an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events. It is difcult to forecast regional changes and their potential effects on agriculture by using global climate models. Studies have shown that changes in the frequency and severity of drought, oods and heat waves, are the key uncertainty in future climate change (EPA, 2010). Some important effects of an increase in temperature, especially in regions
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where agricultural production is seasonally limited by temperature as in Utah, can be the extension of the growing season, increase soil evaporation rates and severe droughts (Linderholm, 2006). Others important factors that inuence crop yields are soil erosion rates and soil moisture; both can be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. The analysis has identied that the temperature has increased in Utah during the last century. The evaluation of the extreme temperature indices and their trends may help to a better understanding of the possible regionaland local-scale impacts of climate change on agriculture and human health. The analysis also showed an increase in total annual precipitation in Utah but few results of precipitation indices with signicant trends. Thus, it is not possible to conclude that during the last century the precipitation has shown a signicant pattern change throughout the studied area. Tourism and outdoor recreation have been an important, growing sector of Utahs economy. During the winter months, the ski and snow sport industry provides the main activities. Changes in precipitation and temperature patterns could have signicant impacts on season lengths and the quality of the snow in the future, affecting the economic viability of this industry. Trends in regional temperature and precipitation extremes and their indication of climate change are of interest to Utah and the rest of the world. The trends obtained herein corroborate the general idea that during the last century the globe has warmed and as a consequence the precipitation level increased due to increased convective activity. Additionally, the experience acquired with this study for Utah, USA, can be extended to other regions. Future research should incorporate more regional stations in surrounding states, possibly stratifying the analysis by elevation and regional microclimates with a closer look to weather station location and possible urbanization effects. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful for the PhD scholarship provided by National Council for Scientic and Technological Development (CNPq) to the rst author, the Utah Climate Center of Utah State University that provided the dataset, Dr Xuebin Zhang and Dr Feng Yang from Canadian Meteorological Service to provide the RClimdex software. To Dr Lawrence E. Hipps from the Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, as well as, the Remote Sensing Services Laboratory in the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department at Utah State University for additional support. This research was partially supported by the Utah Agricultural Experiment Station. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers whose suggestions were helpful for improving the quality of this paper. References
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour Copyright 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

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Int. J. Climatol. 31: 18131822 (2011)