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November 2013

CLIMATE
Seasonal outlook for NSW
The November-January outlook indicates a drier than normal season for northern NSW and an average season elsewhere in the state (below left), with warmer days (centre) and nights (right), due mainly to locally warm sea surface temperatures around Australia, and a neutral tropical Pacific.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/

Ocean temperatures
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures around Australia are tending to drive current Australian climate patterns, as ENSO and IOD are likely to remain neutral over summer.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.h tml

SOI remains neutral

The tropical Pacific has remained ENSO-neutral since mid-2012 and is likely to stay neutral for the remainder of spring and summer. This means the equatorial Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wet or dry period for Australia. However, more localised weather extremes can and do occur during neutral ENSO phases as secondary 1

or local factors come into play. For instance, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures around parts of the Australian coastline may currently be influencing regional climate.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Climate models say neutral outlook ahead

International climate models indicate a neutral outlook for ENSO over spring and summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml

IOD is neutral
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and expected to remain so for the next month. After that, the IOD has limited influence on the Australian climate until April.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Eighth driest and tenth warmest October

NSW recorded a statewide average rainfall of 12.4 mm during October, the eighth-driest October on record, and well below the historical average of 44.4 mm (see the map at right). Most of the state recorded below average rainfall, including record dry conditions in parts of the Blue Mountains. The Murray-Darling Basin also recorded 14.6 mm, well below the historical average of 40.1 mm. The statewide average maximum temperature was 2.5C above average and the tenth-warmest on record for NSW, with temperatures more than 10C above normal across most of the state on the 10th. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nsw/summary.shtml

Record frosts
There were several major frosts, with localised records broken on 4, 15, 18 and 25 October (see anomaly map at right). Bathurst recorded 9 nights of 0C or lower, almost double the previous record of 5 nights in 2012, while Canberra recorded 3 nights below -2C (previous record 1 night). The frosts caused substantial damage to crops in southeast NSW, exacerbated by dry conditions and early crop development associated with September warmth.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nsw/summary.shtml

Record 15 months of above average temperatures

Octobers unusually warm temperatures mean that Australia has seen 15 consecutive months of warmer-than-average temperatures, with numerous records broken as a result. This continuation of unusually high spring temperatures has been sufficient to break the national record for the warmest 12-month period again, the third consecutive month in which a new record has been set.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Climate-updates

13 month rainfall well below long term average

Most of Queensland west of the ranges and northern New South Wales has received less than 65% of the long-term (19611990) average rainfall for the 13months to the end of October. Serious to severe deficiencies (lowest 10% to 5% of records) are in place across much of western Queensland and in a broad band inland of the coastal ranges, extending from the Gulf of Carpentaria to just across the New South Wales border.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/

Soil moisture continues to dry

Topsoil moisture is drying out across the country (right) and subsoil moisture is average to dry (far right). Red indicates drier than the 19611990 average for this month, and. blue indicates wetter.
http://www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

El Nino more active since 1979

New research shows El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena have been more active and intense between1979-2009 than at any time during the past 600 years. This result suggests that the intensity and activity of El Nio and La Ninas appear to increase as global average temperatures increase.
http://www.clim-past.net/9/2269/2013/cp-9-2269-2013.pdf

Research shows El Nino will intensify this century

New BoM research shows El Nio will intensify between 2050 and 2100 with worse droughts in eastern Australia and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific.
http://theconversation.com/australia-to-see-worse-drought-thanks-to-intensifying-el-ni-o-19104

Pacific is warming faster

Reconstruction of Pacific Ocean temperatures in the last 10,000 years has found that its middle depths have warmed 15 times faster in the last 60 years than they did during apparent natural warming cycles in the previous 10,000 years. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131031142738.htm?

Warming beyond historical variability from 2047?

Climate modellers estimate that, under a business as usual emissions scenario, global warming will begin to reach almost continuously beyond historical variability in 2047. This will potentially affect ecosystem health drastically.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7470/full/502174a.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20131010

Melting Arctic is changing the jet stream

A recent study has found that melting Arctic sea ice is causing a change in the position of the jet stream and this could help to explain the recent wet summers in northwest Europe.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131028205410.htm

Arctic temperatures highest in 44,000 years

Average summer temperatures in the Eastern Canadian Arctic are higher now than in the past 44,000 years and perhaps as long ago as 120,000 years, according to Canadian research. The finding is based on dead moss clumps emerging from receding ice caps on Baffin Island which had not been exposed to the elements since at least 44,000 years ago.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131024102243.htm

CLIMATE RESOURCES
Drought and rural communities
A recent Victorian study into the socio-economic impacts of drought and adaptation found that more effort is needed to shift from drought-as-crisis towards acknowledging the variable availability of water and that multi-year droughts should not be unexpected, and may even become more frequent.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378013001027

Fire risk has increased due to warming and drying

The risk of fire has increased in south-east Australia due to a warming and drying trend that is partly due to increases in greenhouse gases. The annual cumulative Forest Fire Danger Index, which integrates daily fire weather across the year, increased significantly at 16 of 38 Australian sites from 1973-2010. The number of significant increases is greatest in the southeast, while the largest trends occurred inland and during spring and autumn.
http://theconversation.com/fire-and-climate-change-dont-expect-a-smooth-ride-19391

Preparedness for natural disasters

A report into Queenslanders preparedness for natural disasters found that recent floods have increased their perceptions of risk and levels of preparedness. The report also found that effective disaster preparedness depends on cooperation, communication of risk, and the cohesion of communities in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from disasters.
http://austjourcomm.org/index.php/ajc/issue/view/3

Role of financial sector in climate risk

A new report on the role of the financial sector in managing climate risk says increased uncertainty about future cash flows is particularly relevant for industries such as agricultural investment. Gradual climate change affects long term viability, and extreme climatic events may increase the riskiness of investments. Consequently, it would seem appropriate for decision makers to incorporate possible consequences of climate change when estimating future cash flows.
http://www.australiancentre.com.au/News/risk-management-and-climate-change-role-financial-services-sector

Primary industries adaptation literature review

The Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network has published an interpretive overview of literature published on the topic of climate change adaptation and Australian primary industries between 2009 and 2012.
http://www.piarn.org.au/sites/piarn.boab.info/files/resources/832/rickards-2013cca-aus-primary-industriesan-interpretivereview-recent-lit.pdf

Plants have kept the heat down

US researchers calculate that land ecosystems have absorbed 186192 billion tonnes of carbon out of the atmosphere since the mid20th century and kept the global temperature down by a third of a degree.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/09/18/1314047110.abstract

Wake up before it is too late

This UN report, subtitled Make agriculture truly sustainable now for food security in a changing climate, says a paradigm shift in agricultural development is needed, based on ecological intensification and mosaics of sustainable, regenerative production systems. This approach recognises that farmers not only produce agricultural goods, but also manage agro-ecological systems that provide public goods and services.
http://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=666

Students understanding of climate change

A recent study of WA Year 10 students scientific understanding of greenhouse effect and climate change has found that many do not understand the science, confusing the ozone layer with the greenhouse effect, and thinking carbon dioxide is the only greenhouse gas. The findings may be because climate change is not explicitly mentioned in the Australian Curriculum in Science until year 10, and is a multidisciplinary science whereas the recent Australian curriculum divides science into four discrete sections.
http://theconversation.com/what-do-young-people-really-know-about-climate-change-19754

Greenhouse 2013 presentations

Presentations from the Greenhouse 2013 conference held in Adelaide in October are now available at the address below. They are a valuable resource of up to date climate research findings, many of them covering projections and impacts for agricultural industries active in NSW.
http://www.greenhouse2013.com/program/presentations/

Coastal climate adaptation app

Griffith University researchers have created an app providing climate change projections, impacts and adaptation options for coastal Australia.
http://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/527790/CERCCS-iPhone-App.pdf

EMISSIONS
Climate Change Authority suggests emissions options
The Climate Change Authoritys draft report on Australias greenhouse gas emissions targets says a 5 per cent reduction from 2000 levels by 2020 would leave Australia lagging behind comparable countries. The Authority offers two reduction options: a 15 per cent reduction by 2020, with a trajectory range of 35 to 50 per cent by 2030; or a 25 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020, with a trajectory range of 40 to 50 per cent by 2030. A weaker 2020 target would require faster reductions later. Comments on the draft are due by 29 November with the final report to be released in February 2014.
http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/Node/100

Australias carbon budget

The recent IPCC report warned that the global greenhouse gas emissions must be contained within a finite carbon budget to keep global warming below 2C, and more than half of this global carbon budget has already been used. The World Wildlife Fund estimates that Australias share of the worlds carbon budget is 18 billion tonnes and 66-84% has been used. The WWF report suggests that a 25% pollution reduction target for 2020 is needed if Australia is to meet its carbon budget.
http://www.wwf.org.au/?8180/Australia-has-nearly-blown-its-carbon-budget-already

UN emissions gap report

A new report from the U.N. Environment Programme finds that global GHG emissions in 2020 will still be 18 to 27 percent above where they need to be if warming is to be limited to 2C above pre-industrial levels. The report outlines several options for bridging the emissions gap, from applying more stringent accounting practices to increasing the scope of pledges and implementing the higher end of pledges that are currently framed as a range.
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/

Australias agricultural emissions projections

A report from the Centre for International Economics says that Australias agricultural emissions are expected to grow at around 1.2 per cent a year to 2050 due mainly to expansion in enteric fermentation from livestock due to anticipated export demand.
http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/Node/104

Sequestration potential of wheat stubble

A NSW DPI modelling study has found that it appears possible to increase SOC in rainfed wheat cropping soils of SE Australia by incorporating wheat stubble into the soil. However, 5070% of the stubble would need to be incorporated, so practical incorporation methods would need to trialled. If this can be achieved, incorporation could assist in meeting emission reduction targets. It is possible that 214% of Australia's 5%-unconditional emission target could be achieved with modest changes in farming practices in just 26% of the 360,000 km2 study area. The study by De Li Liu et al and published in Geoderma, is titled Managing wheat stubble as an effective approach to sequester soil carbon in a semi-arid environment: Spatial modelling.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/aip/00167061

US biochar methodology
A US methodology for emissions reductions from biochar projects is available for comment until 22 November. Under the methodology, biochar may be produced from any biomass approved for use under the International Biochar Initiatives standards provided such feedstocks also meet sustainability criteria specified in the methodology.
http://www.biochar-international.org/protocol

OECD supports carbon tax

A new OECD study concludes that carbon taxes and emissions trading systems are the most cost-effective means of reducing CO2emissions, and should be at the centre of government efforts to tackle climate change.
http://www.oecd.org/env/tools-evaluation/carbon-prices.htm

Tackling climate change through livestock

This FAO report presents a global assessment of greenhouse gas emissions along livestock supply chains, according to species, agroecological zones, regions and production systems.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3437e/i 3437e.pdf

WATER
NSW water storages
NSW water storages have dropped to 66% capacity, compared with 83% a year ago.
http://water.bom.gov.au/waterstorage/awris/#urn:bom.gov.au:awris:common:code list:region.state:newsouthwales

Water trading challenges

A recent paper in Global Environmental Change journal concludes that water trading has potential as a climate change adaptation strategy, but the social and environmental impacts are not well understood. Reallocating water to high value users may disadvantage agriculture and urban water supplies.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378013001581

Rainwater tank use

An ABS survey of Australian household water use has found that 26% used rainwater tanks in 2013. In SA 46% of households use rainwater, and 34% in Queensland.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/cat/4602.0.55.003

Water assessment 2011-12

The Bureau of Meteorologys 2012 assessment of Australian water resources in 2011-2012 found that total annual rainfall was 33% above the long-term 19112012 average; evapotranspiration was 30% above the long-term average; and landscape water yield was 57% above the long-term average. The substantially higher landscape water yield contributed to above average streamflow, causing the total water stored in major reservoirs to increase from 75% at the end of 201011 to 83% of capacity on 30 June 2012.
http://www.bom.gov.au/water/awra/2012/

SOILS
Warming disturbs dryland nutrient balance
A study of 224 dryland sites in 16 countries, including NSW woodland sites near Mildura, has found that increasing aridity is associated with a reduction in carbon and nitrogen in the soil and an increase in phosphorus.
http://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science/warming-will-disturb-soil-nutrient-balance

Soil carbon storage potential

A meta analysis of Australian soil carbon studies has found that the potential of improved management practices to store soil carbon is limited to the surface 010 cm of soil and diminishes with time. Some of the analysis was subsequently refuted in a response by University of Sydney soil scientists.
http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130710/srep02179/full/srep02179.html http://theconversation.com/storing-carbon-in-soil-potential-opportunities-outweigh-limits-17922

Long term fate of nitrate fertiliser

This long term study shows that 30 years after application of fertiliser N in 1982, 8-12% had leached toward groundwater, and 12-15% was in soil organic matter and predicted to leach as nitrate for at least another five decades, much longer than previously thought.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/10/15/1305372110.abstract?sid=a5aca9ea-da3a-4fd3-988e-aaad26b99bd4

World Soil Day is on December 5, 2013

Soil fertility is crucial

Soil fertility is a property of the soil-plant-human system, with the interactions, limits and surprises that characterise complex systems, says a recent Science paper. Fertility cannot be separated from land use not the unintended consequences of usage. Great civilisations have failed because of erosion, salinity and nutrient depletion, and our world could suffer the same fact unless we pay attention to soil fertility.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/565.full

Sustainable soil management

This new book outlines critical changes in management of agricultural soils necessary to achieve food security and meet the food demands of the present and projected future population. The overall strategy is to replace what is removed from the soil, respond wisely to what is changed in the soil, and be pro-active to what may happen because of natural and anthropogenic disturbance. Chapters cover a range of topics including organic farming, soil fertility, crop-symbiotic soil microbiota, human-driven soil degradation, soil degradation and restoration, carbon sink capacity of soils, soil renewal and sustainability, and the marginality principle.
http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466513464

New book: Ecosystem services and carbon sequestration

This book describes potential benefits and drawbacks of carbon sequestration for ecosystem services and says trade-offs between carbon sequestration and ecosystem services must be considered when paying land managers for ecosystem services.
http://www.springer.com/life+sciences/agriculture/book/978-94-007-6454-5

DVD: Soil, your silent ally

The Global Soil Partnership has compiled a DVD of short videos and animations explaining the different roles of soil in our lives.
http://www.fao.org/globalsoilpartnership/news/detail/en/c/174791/

BIODIVERSITY
Plant biodiversity slow to recover in replanted forests
A new study of re-growing tropical forests has concluded that plant biodiversity takes longer to recover than carbon storage following major disturbances such as clearance for farming. Forests following after agricultural use may be more valuable in the first 100 years for the carbon they store than for their biodiversity.
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1773/20132236.short

Biological weed control for policy makers

This report outlines a framework for prioritising targets for biological control and includes a decision support tool that enables policy makers to determine whether biological control is a suitable option for a proposed target species.
http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/9aai/2013/TrgtBioCntrlWeed/TrgtBioCntrlWeedDcsnSpptTl_v.1.1.0.pdf

ENERGY
Coal seam well map
The NSW coal seam gas website now shows a comprehensive list of exploration, pilot and production wells. Each icon displays specific information about the history of the well including the wells status (producing/ not producing/ permanently sealed), drilling date and whether hydraulic fracturing has been used.
http://www.csg.nsw.gov.au/

FOOD
Agrifood infrastructure report
This study identifies food industry issues that may affect the pattern of agricultural production in Australia and the growth of Australias agrifood industry.
http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/9aap/2013/iafipead9aap_20131105/infaAustFoodInd_prelimEcoAssess_v1.0.0.pdf

Botanic gardens barley crop

Adelaide Botanic Gardens and SARDI are growing a barley crop at the gardens to connect urban people with important food plants and demonstrate the important role of farmers.
http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/botanicgardens/Learn/barle y-blog

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What Asia wants

This DAFF report on long term food trends in Asia finds that demand for wheat, vegetables, fruit, beef and dairy products is likely to expand and be met by imports.
http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/research_reports/9aat/2013/WhatAsiaWants/longtermFoodConsumptionTrendsInAsia _v.1.1.0.pdf

Urban agriculture and food security

This paper says key issues such as urban sprawl, contamination threats and legality must be addressed for urban farming to have a sustainable future.
http://www.futuredirections.org.au/files/sap/Urban_Agriculture-_Feeding_the_Cities_1Nov.pdf

UK local food film

A new film explores what the UK local food movement has achieved in the past 20 years and where opportunities now lie, including the relevance of local food to feeding towns and cities. http://localfoodfilm.org.uk/

LAND USE
Land use change in Australia
In a new report looking at changes in Australian land use since 1993, agriculture remains the dominant land use, with grazing on native vegetation and modified pastures in the arid and semiarid regions the dominant enterprise by area. The number of medium size farm businesses decreased while farms greater than 2,500 ha and less than 50 ha both increased. A national land use map, based on 2010-11 agricultural census information, is due for release late in 2013.
http://www.daff.gov.au/abares/publications_remote_content/publication_topi cs/land_use

Global land use archetypes

German researchers have developed 12 land system archetypes to assess global impacts of land use on the environment and help provide appropriate counter measures.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science /article/pii/S0959378013001532

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Centre for land use and land resources

The report proposes a Centre for Land Use and Land Resources for work on agricultural land use and food security analysis, linked to international efforts.
http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/9aal/2013/ReportToClient/ScpAssesNatRsrchCntrLndUseFoodSec20131018/ScpAss esNatRsrchCntrLndUseFoodSec20131018_v1.0.0.pdf

SUSTAINABILITY
2013 Landcare farmer survey
The 2013 National Landcare survey of 500 commercial farmers found that respondents chose to be part of local Landcare and farming systems groups to get information tailored to local issues/conditions, join social networks and see what other farmers are doing. Their primary information sources for sustainable agriculture/NRM issues were the rural media, local Landcare/farming systems groups and State departments of agriculture. Average farm expenditure on pests and diseases was around $20,000.
http://www.landcareonline.com.au/?page_id=9184

Green pastures milk

A Victorian consortium of five dairying families has launched its own milk brand based on sustainable farming practices such as 100% composting of all farm waste. Suppliers have been audited independently and require the operation to have composted for a minimum of two years and meet animal husbandry requirements. Each bottle of milk has a photograph of one of the families and an app code so consumers can learn about each farm.
http://www.greenpasturesmovement.com.au/site/

EVENTS
November 25-26 December 1-4 December 2-4 December 5 December 16 2014 March 24-27 Soil change matters symposium, Bendigo Bioenergy Australia conference, Hunter Valley
http://www.bioenergyaustralia.org/

Generation 2050: Project Feed the World, Armidale http://www.generation2050.com.au/ Carbon Expo, Melbourne http://www.carbonexpo.com.au/ World Soil Day http://www.iuss.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=405 National biochar workshop, Sydney balwant.singh@sydney.edu.au

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http://www.soilmatters.org/program.html April 8 May 20-21 July 8-10 December 1-4 Future Farm live, Canberra http://www.futurefarmonline.com.au/announcements/future-farm-live 4th National Acid Sulfate Soil Conference, Perth http://scu.edu.au/nationalassconference/ Peri-urban 2014, Parramatta http://periurban14.org/ Soil science for future generations, Queenstown NZ

MAILING LIST
To subscribe to NRM on Farms, email Rebecca Lines-Kelly at rebecca.lines-kelly@dpi.nsw.gov.au.

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