Science & Engineering for a Sustainable Energy Future

Arun Majumdar Google

VIRGINIA SUMMIT ON SCIENCE, ENGINEERING & MEDICINE November 15, 2013

100% CARBON NEUTRALITY: 3-STEP PROCESS FOR GETTING THERE

Step 1: Reduce energy consumption through efficiency Step 2: Green our consumption by using renewable energy

Step 3: Offset what we cannot eliminate

Google Confidential and Proprietary

Industrial Revolution: Horse Power to Horsepower

300 Horsepower

10,000 Horsepower

100,000 Horsepower

Global per Capita GDP

1750s: 2013: 2050: 2100:

0.7B 7.0B 9.0B 10.0B

Oil & Gas Reserves

Global Oil Reserves Global Gas Reserves w/o US Shale

BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012)

120 100

Global Oil Price & Economic Unpredictability

Real

Price ($/barrel)

80 60
40 20

Nominal

Thousands of Barrels per day

0 25000 20000 15000 10000 US Total Oil Consumption

US Balance of Payments

100 Imported Oil Percentage 80 60 40 $300B/yr

5000

US Imports

20

0 2012
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Averages & Extremes

Hansen, Sato, Ruedy, Perception of climate change, PNAS, Aug. 6 (2012)

Cumulative CO2 emissions since Industrial Revolution About 1 Trillion Tons

How much more CO2 can we emit based on known fossil fuel reserves? About 3 Trillion Tons
75-100 years Worth $10s of Trillion!!

The Stone Age did not end because we ran out stones
Sheikh Ahmed Yamani, former Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia

We transitioned to better solutions

Technologies that lead to fundamentally new learning curves

Enhance U.S. economic, energy & environmental security Ensure U.S. lead in advanced energy technologies
Multiple shots at goal

TRANSFORMATIONAL
Steam-powered Cugnot (1769)

Cost Performance

Benz Motorwagen (1885)

existing technology

DISRUPTIVE Time

Ford Model T (1914)

Energy Systems

US Department of Energy. Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review. (US DOE, 2011).

Shale Gas Extraction Coupled Chemistry, Transport, Mechanics

10-100 nm pores

Courtesy: Mark Zoback, Stanford

Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation

12-18
8-15 5-12 8-14

8-14
4-10

Sunshot 2020

Wind

Geothermal

Coal

Nuclear

NGCC

Distributed & Modular

5 cents/kWh

Source: Sustainable Energy in America 2013 Factbook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Jan (2013)

Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

Rare Earth Free Hard Magnetic Materials for Generators & Motors

Fe16N2 Holy Grail of Magnets BHmax = 134 MGOe

Advanced Research Projects Agency Energy

16

Fully Installed Residential PV ($/W)

Fully Installed Utility PV ($/W)

Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

Solar Cell Efficiency

III-V Based 28.8% efficient solar cells on plastic substrate

Single Junction Theoretical Limit

Alta Devices

Grid-Scale Storage (GWh Scale)

$1000/kWh
Others

First Cost

City College New York

90Ah 12V battery

$100/kWh
ASU

Zn-MnO2 Battery Highlights Demonstrated cycles: 2,500 Projected cycles: 5,000 Prototype cost: $300/kWh Cost at scale: <$100/kWh Rechargeable Zn-Air Battery

MIT Li-ion Flow Battery

$10/kWh

Zn-based Battery

Tesla

Edison

$100B/yr lost in power outages

One-way flow

Grid

Distributed Load

Cyber-Physical Security

PG&E Metcalf 600kV Substation

2am, April 16, 2013 120 shots fired at the radiators of only energized transformers >50,000 gallons of cooling oil leaked Fiber optic & telephone cables cut 15 mins before the shootings 911 disabled

Boston Marathon Bombing April 15, 2013

Power Electronics

8000 lbs, 60 Hz Distribution Transformer Average Age: 42 years, 2 years beyond projected lifespan

Silicon Carbide IGBT; 15 kV, 100 A; 50 kHz from Cree Inc.

Potentially 100 lbs transformer

23

Techno-Economic Convergence
Electricity cost $/kWh delivered, utility-scale, based on India
PV
LatAm

Mobile penetration Subscriptions per capita

Developed world

Diesel
China

Grid

SSA India

Networked Distributed Secure Computing

Li-ion storage cost ($/kWh delivered) 200-400 Wh/kg (cell); 100-200 Wh/kg (pack)
0.47

Wide Bandgap Semiconductor (SiC, GaN) Power Electronics 300x size reduction in 25W AC-DC SSL Driver

Lead acid (40Wh/kg)

0.20-0.40 0.07-0.20

Transportation
Water

Rail Pipeline

Fuel
Gasoline/Diesel Natural Gas Biofuel Electricity

Air
7.8

Power Train
Trucks 22.2 58.8 Light Duty Vehicles IC Engine Batteries/Electric Motor Fuel Cells Hybrids

Buses

Light Weighting

Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

26

Vehicle Electrification
Electric Vehicles Comparable in Range and Cost
Today ARPA-E $500/kWh$250/kWh
Li-air
Li-S

Adv Li-ion
Mg-ion

Zn-air
Li-ion

NiMH
Pb-acid 40 210

BEEST

400

4000

Practical energy density (Wh/kg)

27

27

POROUS Si ANODE

Mn-BASED CATHODE

400 Wh/kg; C/10 80% depth of discharge

Roughly $250/kWh

Photosynthetic Biofuels
(Calvin-Benson Cycle) Sugarcane Corn Algae

Cellulose

Less than 1% efficient

Plants Engineered to Replace Oil (PETRO)

Today 80 GJ/ha-yr Future 160 GJ/ha-yr @ $50/BOE Algae

?
Tobacco

LBL & UC Berkeley

Electrofuels
Sour Reducing Crude Equivalent

H2
Electricity Non-photosynthetic Microbes
>10X more efficient than photosynthesis

OPX Biotechnology & North Carolina State University

Sustainable Energy Future

(In)Famous Predictions from the Past

The Americans have need of the telephone, but

we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.

Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.

(In)Famous Predictions from the Past

Radio has no future X-rays will prove to be a hoax. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible Lord Kelvin in 1890s

(In)Famous Predictions from the Past

Man will not fly for 50 years. Wilbur Wright in 1901

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Arthur C. Clarke

Thank you!