Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Slovakia posted robust GDP gains on the back of European Union accession in 2004 and euro adoption in 2009, in its Tatra Tiger period, underpinning decent hikes in income and spending. Outlay is supported across income groups by Slovakias status as the second most equal country in the world. Accounting for over half the population, social class D is the countrys largest, supporting demand for businesses such as private labels and discounters.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Slovakia's per capita annual disposable income and consumer expenditure posted hikes of 15.7% and 9.4% in real terms over the 2006-2011 period, to reach 7,910 (US$10,998) and 7,225 (US$10,046) respectively in 2011, as the Slovakian GDP advanced by 19.7% in real terms over the period; Slovak individuals in their fifties had the highest average gross income, with the 55-59 demographic earning 14,346 (US$19,947), followed closely by the 50 -54 age group on 14,330 (US$19,925) and the 45 -49 cohort on 14,097 (US$19,602). Elderly Slovaks aged 65 and over are dominant among the country's richest citizens, accounting for 27.4% of the population in receipt of a gross income over US$150,000 (constant terms) in 2011; In 2011, social class D was the biggest class, making up 50.1% of the total population aged 15+, or 2.3 million people, followed by social class E, accounting for 20.0% of the population aged 15+ or 914,300 people. With social classes D and E combined accounting for 70.1% of the total population aged 15+, this suggests that midto low-priced products and services would find a sizeable potential customer base; Slovakia has a significant middle class defined as households with between 75.0% and 125% of median income of slightly above 1.0 million households or 45.6% of the total number of Slovakian households in 2011. This cohort advanced by 3.9% between 2006 and 2011 and is a great target for marketers and planners from across all industries, such as restaurants, kitchenware, home furnishings and air travel; Over the 2013-2020 period, total consumer expenditure is forecast to grow by 30.1% in real terms, on the back of the increase in annual disposable income, which is poised to advance by 29.5% in real terms during the same period. The fastest growing categories in consumer expenditure are set to be household goods and services (44.6%), education (38.7%) and miscellaneous goods and services (35.3%); In 2011, the highest earning 10.0% of Slovakian households (decile 10) spent 4.1 times more than the poorest 10.0% of households (decile 1) while their annual disposable income was 5.5 times higher, revealing the high equality generated by Slovakias welfare system, allowing marketers and planners to draw a more general consumer profile formed from higher as well as lower income households that share similar spending habits.
Chart 1 Per Capita Disposable Income in Eastern Europe: 2011
Source:
was spent on discretionary items (all items except food, non-alcoholic beverages and housing), up slightly from 56.4% in 2006, due to the economic advance that Slovakia witnessed over the period, leading to an increase in living standards. In the short term, per capita annual disposable income is poised to register small declines, falling by 0.8% in 2012 and another 0.8% in 2013, while per capita consumer expenditure is forecast to dip by 0.3% in 2012 and a further 0.6% in 2013 all year-on-year in real terms, as the entire eurozone, of which Slovakia is part, grapples with austerity measures in response to the sovereign debt crisis, which dents income and expenditure levels. Over the 2013-2020 period, per capita annual disposable income and consumer expenditure will register an average annual real growth of 3.6% and 3.7% respectively, stronger, but slightly lower than the respective 3.7% and 4.5% annual real growth posted in the 2000-2007 period. These still impressively strong rates of growth for an advanced Eastern European economy like Slovakias bode well for companies across sectors, allowing them to gain market share and increase their customer base, while newcomers to the Slovakian consumer market will find a propitious environment for business growth underpinned by the rising levels of income and expenditure, as well as by the common currency.
Chart 2 Per Capita Annual Disposable Income, Spending and Savings Ratio: 2006-2020
Source: Note:
Euromonitor International from national statistics/trade sources/OECD/Eurostat Per capita disposable income and consumer spending are expressed in constant 2011 prices, fixed 2011 US$ exchange rate. Data for 2012-2020 are forecasts.
such as cruise companies, luxury travel and resorts, medical services and mobility aids, such as adapted vehicles and stair lifts, and cultural venues. This underscores the potential of mature consumer segments.
Chart 3 % of total Selected Income Bands by Age: 2011
Source:
Slovakia's total gross income map for 2011 contains two "hot spots" the red areas that indicate the highest total income. The first hot spot, which is the larger, outlines an age range of about 15 -40, with a corresponding annual gross income span of approximately US$8,000-US$18,000 per capita. This hot spot represents young to adult Slovakians and is owing to their high prevalence in the population. In 2011, 38.9% of all Slovakians were in the 1539 age group. At the younger end of the spectrum are individuals finishing their studies and just entering the labour force. Most of them are still living with their parents so they can devote most of their income to discretionary categories like communication devices (smartphones, tablets, laptops), branded clothing and footwear, cultivating their hobbies through purchasing sport equipment and travel, as well as towards personal care items. Towards the middle and the end of the hot spot are young adults enjoying a decent standard of living, most of them with families and a successful professional career. Their spending typically includes family cars and holidays abroad, household appliances and home furnishings, as well as dining out with their family and friends. The second hot spot, which is slightly smaller, represents mature Slovakians from 44 to 58 years old in receipt of an annual gross income of about US$14,000-US$17,000 per capita. This hot spot is formed of individuals who are reaping the benefits of a successful professional career, most of them with children at or approaching university age, while towards the older end of the spectrum are Slovakians approaching retirement. These Slovaks will take a traditional approach to spending, devoting funds to safeguarding their health, their family comfort and their childrens education with expenditure on medical services, family holidays and private tuition.
Chart 4 Total Gross Income Map: 2011
Source: Note:
Euromonitor International from national statistics The horizontal axis depicts the age of individuals and the vertical axis the distribution of per capita income by annual gross income brackets. The shading refers to the total income in thousand US$. The closer to red, the larger the amount of total income in that age and income range.
Chart 5 %
Source:
bracket of US$55,000-US$75,000 (in constant terms) posting the strongest growth of 62.8% between 2013 and 2020, followed closely by the US$45,000-US$55,000 (in constant terms) income bracket with a 57.8% projected advance for the same period. This outlines the growing commercial potential of middle- to high-earning households whose purchasing power is similar to that of their Western European counterparts, opening up a market for premium products and services, such as foreign travel, designer clothing and footwear, new cars and jewellery.
Chart 6 % Household Income Distribution: 2011
Source:
CONSUMER EXPENDITURE
Household goods and services and education to drive growth
Slovakian consumers allocated 42.5% of total consumer expenditure to non-discretionary items, such as food, nonalcoholic beverages and housing, in 2011 and the remaining 57.5% to discretionary spending, such as miscellaneous goods and services which includes the luxury goods category, leisure and recreation, transport and household goods and services. Total Slovakian consumer expenditure advanced by 10.0% in real terms between 2006 and 2011. The most dynamic growth category during this period was health goods and medical services, which climbed by 33.3% in real terms, due to the increasing number of older consumers who are generating demand for items, such as medical supplies, vitamins and exercise equipment, leading to a sharp rise in spending on pharmaceuticals. It was followed by household goods and services with a 25.8% period gain in real terms, as the increase in disposable income over the period, coupled with a strong property market, allowed Slovakians to increase their expenditure on this category, with most of the gains coming in 2007 and 2008. Spending on leisure and recreation saw the third highest growth over the 2006-2011 period, advancing by 24.5% in real terms, as the developing market included a greater variety of ways to spend on entertainment. Only one category posted a decline over the 2006-2011 period, hotels and catering, which plunged by 16.9% in real terms, mostly due to a real 13.5% year-on-year drop registered in 2009 due to the global economic downturn. After a strong advanced of 6.6% in 2007 and 5.9% in 2008, year-on-year in real terms, total consumer expenditure declined marginally for three consecutive years between 2009 and 2011, due to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and the 2011 eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Slovakias annual disposable income and consumer expenditure have tended to move in synchronisation, diverging slightly in 2009 when an increased tendency to save pegged back growth in consumer expenditure. In the short term, consumer expenditure is expected to marginally decline, with a 0.2% drop in 2012 and another 0.4% fall in 2013 year-on-year in real terms, as annual disposable income is forecast to decline by 0.6% in 2012 and another 0.7% in 2013 year-on-year in real terms, due to low foreign demand for Slovakian exports, as the main European trading partners have instated austerity measures in response to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and due to the Slovakian government spending cuts and tax hikes.
Over the 2013-2020 period, total consumer expenditure is forecast to grow by 30.1% in real terms, on the back of the increase in annual disposable income, which is poised to advance by 29.5% in real terms over the same period. The fastest growing categories during this period will be household goods and services with a projected growth of 44.6% in real terms, followed by education with a 38.7% hike in real terms and miscellaneous goods and services with a 35.3% advance in real terms on the back of a general increase in living standards, which will support discretionary spending. The average annual real growth in Slovakias total consumer expenditure is projected to stand at 3.8% during the 2013-2020 period, still solid, but weaker than the 4.5% posted over the 2000-2007 period. This implies that marketers and planners will find a propitious environment for increasing revenues, market share and customer base, while newcomers will find favourable grounds to enter the Slovakian consumer market.
Chart 7 2006=100 Real Growth Index of Consumer Expenditure by Selected Category: 2006-2020
Source: Note:
Euromonitor International from national statistical offices/OECD/Eurostat Data for 2012-2020 are forecasts.
lowest proportional spending on this category was registered in the region of Trencin at 7.7%, as the capital is home to more wealthy Slovakians who can devote funds to this category. Most of the other discretionary categories see approximately the same pattern of consumer expenditure across regions. The relative uniformity between expenditure patterns in Slovakias regions, combined with the countrys significant and expanding middle class, recommends considering the entire country for investment. The capital Bratislava should be a starting point for marketers, as it is the main hub for the country's financial sector and service industries. Over the 2013-2020 period, per household spending in all regions is forecast to expand by around 33.0% in US$ nominal terms.
Chart 8 Household Expenditure by Region: 2011
Source:
categories, as the Slovakian economy is poised to register solid growth rates, with real GDP forecast to post average annual growth of 2.7% between 2013 and 2020, which will help boost consumer confidence and expenditure levels.
Chart 9 Household Expenditure of Deciles 1, 5 and 10 by Category: 2011
Source: Note:
Euromonitor International from national statistical offices/OECD/Eurostat A: Food and non-alcoholic beverages; B: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco; C: Clothing and footwear; D: Housing; E: Household goods and services; F: Health goods and medical services; G: Transport; H: Communications; I: Leisure and recreation; J: Education; K: Hotels and catering; L: Miscellaneous goods and services. The figure in brackets refers to the average disposable income of households in each decile.
Slovakias most discretional category, where spending varies significantly according to income, is education, to which decile 10 households contributed 31.8% of category spending in 2011, compared to just 1.3% by decile 1, as rich Slovakians are more likely to send their children to private schools whereas their less affluent counterparts will make use of public schools. Transport was the second most discretionary category in 2011, with 30.9% of total category spending coming from decile 10 compared to 1.4% from decile 1, as wealthy Slovakians tend to live a more mobile life, often travelling abroad for business and in ownership of more than one vehicle. In the same year, decile 8-10 accounted for over 60.0% of total spending on both categories. The least discretionary category, where spending is more resistant to change as income rises, is alcoholic beverages and tobacco. In 2011, decile 1 accounted for 7.8% of total category spending compared to 11.3% for decile 10, due to the natural ceiling on this category, meaning that richer households cannot dominate expenditure by a very high margin. This was followed by spending on health goods and medical services, where decile 1 accounted for 5.7% of total expenditure compared to 14.6% by decile 10 in 2011, as the socialist principles of healthcare funding shift the burden of payment away from the individual, keeping outlay low.
Chart 10 Proportion of Total Spending on Selected Categories by Decile: 2011
Source:
DEFINITIONS
Deciles: Deciles are calculated by ranking all of the households in a country by disposable income level, from the lowest earning to the highest earning. The ranking is then split into 10 equal sized groups of households. Decile 1 refers to the lowest earning 10.0%, through to Decile 10, which refers to the highest earning 10.0% of households. Disposable income: This is gross income minus social security contributions and income taxes. Gini index: A standard economic measure of income inequality, based on a Lorenz Curve. A society that scores 0% on the Gini index has perfect equality, where every inhabitant has the same income. The higher the number over 0%, the higher the inequality, and a score of 100% indicates total inequality, where only one person receives all the income. In reality, countries tend to fall between 25.0% and 60.0%. Gross income: Annual gross income refers to income before taxes and social security contributions from all sources including earnings from employment, investments, benefits and other sources such as remittances. Median income: The median income is the amount which divides the household income distribution into two equal groups, half having disposable income above that amount and half having income below that amount. Middle class: The middle class is defined as the number of households with between 75.0% and 125% of median income. Savings ratio: Savings ratio is the proportion of household disposable income, which is saved. The savings ratio is dependent on: the proportion of older people (as they have less motivation and capability to save); the tax system (it can encourage or discourage saving); the rate of inflation (expectations of rising prices encourage people to spend now). Social class A: Social Class A presents data referring to the number of individuals with a gross income over 200% of an average gross income of all individuals aged 15+. Social class B: Social Class B presents data referring to the number of individuals with a gross income between 150% and 200% of an average gross income of all individuals aged 15+. Social class C: Social Class C presents data referring to the number of individuals with a gross income between 100% and 150% of an average gross income of all individuals aged 15+. Social class D: Social Class D presents data referring to the number of individuals with a gross income between 50.0% and 100% of an average gross income of all individuals aged 15+. Social class E: Social Class E presents data referring to the number of individuals with a gross income less than 50.0% of an average gross income of all individuals aged 15+.