Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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November. 25, 2013 Stocks Remain Firm But Face Risky Levels On Strength.

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to 2.839% on Nov. 21 vs. the Sept. 6 high at 3.007% with the 50-day simple moving average at 2.663%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to 3.938% on Nov. 21 testing its year to date high at 3.94% set on Aug. 22 with the 50-day SMA at 3.733%. The weekly chart favors a higher 10-Year yield with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 2.685%. The weekly chart favors a higher 30-year yield given a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 3.757%. 10-Year Note (2.750) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.829 and 3.227 with a weekly pivot at 2.711, and daily, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.691, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981. 30-Year Bond (3.839) My semiannual value level is 4.807 with daily, weekly and monthly pivots at 3.798, 3.810 and 3.814 and quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.487 and 3.014. Comex gold has a negative but oversold daily chart with June 28 year to date low at $1179.4. The 50day SMA is $1308.6 with the 200-day SMA at $1396.0. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $1297.4. Crude oil has a neutral daily chart with the 200-day SMA at $98.56. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $97.81 and the 200-week SMA at $91.80. The euro vs. the dollar has a positive daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3550 and 1.3218. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week MMA at 1.3505. The 200-week SMA is a critical support at 1.3311. Comex Gold ($1241.8) My monthly value level is $1171.8 with daily and weekly pivots at $1257.3 and $1246.3, and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($94.81) My weekly value level is $92.09 with a daily pivot at $94.89 and monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.04, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3549) Monthly, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3428, 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3555, 1.3601 and 1.4295. The Dow Industrial Average has a positive but overbought daily chart its 21-day SMA at 15,764 and its Nov. 22 all-time intra-day high at 16,068.78. The S&P 500 has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 1774.5 and its Nov. 22 all-time intra-day high at 1804.84 just above my monthly risky level at 1802.0. The Nasdaq has a positive daily chart with the 21-day SMA at 3939 with its Nov. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 3994.97. The Dow Transportation Average has a neutral daily chart with

its 21-day SMA at 7084 and its Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 7245.43. The Russell 2000 has a positive daily chart with its 21-day SMA at 1106.82 and its Nov. 22 all-time high at 1125.65. The weekly chart for Dow Industrials is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,649. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1755.35. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3894. The weekly chart for Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 6949. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1098.74. The major equity averages straddle my monthly pivot at 1802.0 on the S&P 500 and my quarterly pivot at 7205 on Dow Transports. This weeks pivot is 16,019 Dow Industrials with weekly risky levels at 1827.3 S&P 500, 4045 Nasdaq, 7352 Dow Transports and 1138.32 Russell 2000. Semiannual, quarterly or monthly pivots are 1743.5 and 1802.0 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels are 16,162, 16,775 and 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500, 4014 and 4025 Nasdaq and 1133.14 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops the risk is to my annual pivots / value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (16,065) Semiannual and annual value levels are 14,724 and 12,696 with a weekly pivot at 16,019, the Nov. 22 all-time intra-day high at 16,068.78, and daily, monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,170, 16,162, 16,490 and 16,775. S&P 500 (1804.8) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1743.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a monthly pivot at 1802.0, the Nov. 22 all-time intra-day high at 1804.84, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1818.7, 1827.3 and 1853.8. NASDAQ (3992) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with the Nov. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 3994.97, and daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 4009, 4056, 4014 and 4025. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3422) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3304 and 2463 with the Nov. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 3429.20, and monthly, daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 3425, 3440, 3487 and 3477. Dow Transports (7199) Monthly and annual value levels are 6927, 5925 and 5469 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at 7104 and 7205, a daily risky level at 7231, the Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 7245.43, and a weekly risky level at 7352. Russell 2000 (1124.88) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with a daily pivot at 1124.82, the Nov. 22 all time multi-year intra-day high at 1125.65, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1138.32, 1133.14 and 1163.21. The SOX (504.61) My annual value level is 338.03 with a daily pivot at 503.84, the Oct. 31 multiyear intra-day high at 510.17, and weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 514.16, 519.72, 514.87 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (495.31) My semiannual value level is 481.92 with daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 502.16, 513.13, 514.62, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.