Sie sind auf Seite 1von 8

Jae Jun | Old School Value

Author mail questions or comments to: jjun0366@gmail.com


http://www.oldschoolvalue.com

Disclaimer
Nothing on Old School Value, related pages, emails, or other communications by the author, either written or oral, are intended to be a
recommendation to either buy, hold, or sell any specific security or group of securities. Likewise, nothing herein should be construed as an
endorsement of any financial adviser, investment manager, commercial information provider, transaction service, or brokerage firm.

The findings from this spreadsheet is merely a start to a means of further research and uncovering a great business and investment. Old
School Value holds no responsibility for any investment whatsoever.

Quick Instructions
- Yellow highlighted fields are user input fields. Use these fields to override the default values without messing up formulas and accidently saving
incorrect values
- Press F9 to start calculations. Automatic formula calculations have been turned off in the excel menu to improve start speed and convenience.
- Refer to the manual for trouble shooting issues. The manual contains every possible problem you will encounter or the problem is a variant of what
I have written which is solved the same way. The solutions in the manual has been able to help everyone with a problem thus far.
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/intrinsic-value-spreadsheets/installation-troubleshooting-guide/
Company Name ticker
Becton Dickinson & Co www.oldschoolvalue.com BDX
8/15/2009 all figures in $Mil
Financial Data
BDX 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM
Income Statement
Revenue $ 3,418.4 $ 3,618.3 $ 3,754.3 $ 4,033.1 $ 4,527.9 $ 4,934.8 $ 5,414.7 $ 5,834.8 $ 6,359.7 $ 7,155.9 $ 7,177.5
COGS $ 1,711.7 $ 1,848.3 $ 1,913.3 $ 2,083.7 $ 2,336.3 $ 2,500.4 $ 2,662.0 $ 2,886.9 $ 3,071.9 $ 3,492.6 $ 3,451.3
COGS (%) 50.1% 51.1% 51.0% 51.7% 51.6% 50.7% 49.2% 49.5% 48.3% 48.8% 48.1%

Gross Profit $ 1,706.7 $ 1,770.0 $ 1,841.0 $ 1,949.4 $ 2,191.7 $ 2,434.4 $ 2,752.7 $ 2,948.0 $ 3,287.8 $ 3,663.4 $ 3,726.2

Gross Profit (%) 49.9% 48.9% 49.0% 48.3% 48.4% 49.3% 50.8% 50.5% 51.7% 51.2% 51.9%

Operating Expenses
SG&A $ 931.9 $ 973.9 $ 983.3 $ 1,032.0 $ 1,207.5 $ 1,311.5 $ 1,449.9 $ 1,537.5 $ 1,602.4 $ 1,715.1 $ 1,728.3
SG&A (%) 27.3% 26.9% 26.2% 25.6% 26.7% 26.6% 26.8% 26.4% 25.2% 24.0% 24.1%
R&D $ 254.0 $ 223.8 $ 211.8 $ 220.2 $ 235.1 $ 235.7 $ 271.6 $ 360.0 $ 482.2 $ 396.2 $ 404.9
R&D (%) 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 5.0% 6.2% 7.6% 5.5% 5.6%
Other $ 75.5 $ 57.5 NaN $ 21.5 -NaN $ 100.0 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Other (%) 2.2% 1.6% #VALUE! 0.5% #VALUE! 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Operating Income $ 445.3 $ 514.8 $ 645.9 $ 675.7 $ 749.1 $ 787.3 $ 1,031.2 $ 1,050.5 $ 1,203.2 $ 1,552.1 $ 1,593.1

Operating Income (%) 13.0% 14.2% 17.2% 16.8% 16.5% 16.0% 19.0% 18.0% 18.9% 21.7% 22.2%

Other Income and Expense


Net Int Inc & Other $ (72.6) $ 5.1 $ (69.1) $ (47.1) $ (39.4) $ (34.4) $ (26.3) $ (15.5) $ 0.8 $ 1.5 $ (8.7)
Earnings Before Taxes $ 372.7 $ 519.9 $ 576.8 $ 628.6 $ 709.7 $ 752.9 $ 1,004.9 $ 1,035.0 $ 1,204.0 $ 1,553.6 $ 1,584.4
Income Taxes $ 96.9 $ 127.0 $ 138.4 $ 148.6 $ 162.7 $ 170.4 $ 312.6 $ 279.4 $ 347.8 $ 425.7 $ 429.6
Earnings After Taxes $ 275.7 $ 392.9 $ 438.4 $ 480.0 $ 547.1 $ 582.5 $ 692.3 $ 755.6 $ 856.2 $ 1,127.9 $ 1,154.8
Acctg Changes $ - $ - $ (36.8) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Disc Operations $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ (115.1) $ 30.0 $ (3.3) $ 33.9 $ (0.9) $ (2.2)
Ext Items $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -

Net Income $ 275.7 $ 392.9 $ 401.7 $ 480.0 $ 547.1 $ 467.4 $ 722.3 $ 752.3 $ 890.0 $ 1,127.0 $ 1,152.6

Net Income (%) 8.1% 10.9% 10.7% 11.9% 12.1% 9.5% 13.3% 12.9% 14.0% 15.7% 16.1%
Diluted EPS, Cont Ops$ $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.0 $ 3.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.8
Diluted EPS$ $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 2.1 $ 1.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.8
Shares 265 263 269 268 264 264 260 256 255 244 241

Balance Sheet

Assets
Cash and Equiv $ 59.9 $ 49.2 $ 82.1 $ 243.1 $ 519.9 $ 719.4 $ 1,042.9 $ 1,000.3 $ 511.5 $ 830.5 $ 542.7
Short-Term Investments $ 4.7 $ 5.6 $ 4.6 $ 1.9 $ - $ 32.1 $ 86.8 $ 106.4 $ 158.0 $ 199.9 $ 187.5
Accts Rec $ 812.5 $ 751.7 $ 768.1 $ 746.0 $ 781.3 $ 807.4 $ 842.8 $ 885.8 $ 1,083.2 $ 1,079.1 $ 1,062.1
Inventory $ 642.5 $ 678.7 $ 707.7 $ 697.7 $ 795.0 $ 738.8 $ 776.0 $ 875.7 $ 1,052.0 $ 1,080.4 $ 1,180.7
Other Current Assets $ 164.1 $ 175.5 $ 200.5 $ 240.0 $ 242.3 $ 343.7 $ 226.9 $ 317.1 $ 325.9 $ 424.8 $ 434.8

Total Current Assets $ 1,683.7 $ 1,660.7 $ 1,762.9 $ 1,928.7 $ 2,338.6 $ 2,641.3 $ 2,975.3 $ 3,185.3 $ 3,130.6 $ 3,614.7 $ 3,407.8
Net PP&E $ 1,431.2 $ 1,576.1 $ 1,716.0 $ 1,765.7 $ 1,844.8 $ 1,881.0 $ 1,933.7 $ 2,133.6 $ 2,497.3 $ 2,744.5 $ 2,663.1
Intangibles $ 1,034.7 $ 948.1 $ 900.8 $ 1,186.4 $ 1,196.8 $ 1,039.1 $ 966.8 $ 1,090.8 $ 1,234.9 $ 715.4 $ 1,167.2
Other Long-Term Assets $ 287.4 $ 320.2 $ 422.6 $ 159.7 $ 192.1 $ 191.1 $ 196.2 $ 414.9 $ 466.6 $ 838.4 $ 337.8

Total Assets $ 4,437.0 $ 4,505.1 $ 4,802.3 $ 5,040.5 $ 5,572.3 $ 5,752.6 $ 6,072.0 $ 6,824.5 $ 7,329.4 $ 7,912.9 $ 7,575.8

Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity


Accts Payable $ 209.4 $ 184.0 $ 205.1 $ 224.7 $ 221.5 $ 206.9 $ 252.3 $ 243.6 $ 267.0 $ 260.9 $ -
Short-Term Debt $ 631.3 $ 637.7 $ 454.0 $ 434.6 $ 121.9 $ 49.3 $ 206.5 $ 427.2 $ 207.6 $ 201.3 $ 405.6
Taxes Payable $ 23.4 $ 32.3 $ 50.1 $ 57.2 $ 75.0 $ 86.7 $ 70.9 $ 34.6 $ 86.9 $ 28.9 $ -
Accrued Liabilities $ 465.3 $ 499.6 $ 555.5 $ 535.9 $ 625.0 $ 692.9 $ 769.8 $ 870.9 $ 917.3 $ 519.1 $ -
Other Short-Term
Liabilities $ - $ - NaN NaN $ - $ 14.2 NaN $ - $ - $ 406.4 $ 1,105.1

Total Current Liabilities $ 1,329.3 $ 1,353.5 $ 1,264.7 $ 1,252.5 $ 1,043.4 $ 1,050.1 $ 1,299.4 $ 1,576.3 $ 1,478.8 $ 1,416.6 $ 1,510.7
Long-Term Debt $ 954.2 $ 779.6 $ 783.0 $ 803.0 $ 1,184.0 $ 1,171.5 $ 1,060.8 $ 957.0 $ 955.7 $ 953.2 $ 747.7
Other Long-Term
Liabilities $ 384.8 $ 416.0 $ 425.8 $ 497.1 $ 447.9 $ 463.1 $ 427.8 $ 455.0 $ 532.9 $ 607.6 $ 513.5

Total Liabilities $ 2,668.3 $ 2,549.1 $ 2,473.5 $ 2,552.5 $ 2,675.3 $ 2,684.7 $ 2,788.0 $ 2,988.3 $ 2,967.4 $ 2,977.4 $ 2,771.8
Total Equity $ 1,768.7 $ 1,956.0 $ 2,328.8 $ 2,488.0 $ 2,897.0 $ 3,067.9 $ 3,284.0 $ 3,836.2 $ 4,362.0 $ 4,935.6 $ 4,804.0

Total Liabilities & Equity $ 4,437.0 $ 4,505.1 $ 4,802.3 $ 5,040.5 $ 5,572.3 $ 5,752.6 $ 6,072.0 $ 6,824.5 $ 7,329.4 $ 7,913.0 $ 7,575.8

Cash Flows Statement

Cash Flows From Operating Activities


Net Income $ 275.7 $ 392.9 $ 401.7 $ 480.0 $ 547.1 $ 467.4 $ 722.3 $ 752.3 $ 890.0 $ 1,127.0 $ 1,152.6
Depr & Amort $ 258.9 $ 288.3 $ 305.7 $ 304.9 $ 344.5 $ 357.2 $ 387.5 $ 405.1 $ 441.3 $ 477.4 $ 479.2
Deferred Taxes $ 4.6 $ 37.3 $ 37.4 $ 57.2 $ (1.0) $ (31.4) $ 63.2 $ (129.3) $ (115.5) $ 80.1 $ 97.3
Other $ (107.4) $ (102.9) $ 33.9 $ (6.0) $ 15.2 $ 307.0 $ 50.9 $ 48.3 $ 20.2 $ 3.5 $ (201.6)

Cash from Operations $ 431.8 $ 615.5 $ 778.7 $ 836.0 $ 905.7 $ 1,100.3 $ 1,223.9 $ 1,076.4 $ 1,236.1 $ 1,688.0 $ 1,527.5

Cash Flows From Investing Activities


Cap Ex $ (311.6) $ (376.4) $ (370.8) $ (259.7) $ (261.0) $ (265.7) $ (317.6) $ (459.3) $ (556.4) $ (602.0) $ (559.2)
Purchase of Business $ (374.2) $ (21.3) $ (31.0) $ - $ - $ (24.3) $ - $ (231.5) $ (339.5) $ (41.3) $ -
Other $ (130.1) $ (5.8) $ (140.2) $ (101.4) $ (88.3) $ (105.3) $ (64.4) $ (95.8) $ (122.3) $ (139.8) $ (206.2)

Cash from Investing $ (815.9) $ (403.4) $ (541.9) $ (361.1) $ (349.4) $ (395.2) $ (382.0) $ (786.5) $ (1,018.3) $ (783.0) $ (765.4)

Cash Flows From Financing Activities


Net Issuance of Stock $ 26.8 $ 34.7 $ 82.9 $ (185.9) $ (263.4) $ (273.9) $ (426.5) $ (301.1) $ (319.5) $ (364.6) $ (470.1)
Net Issuance of Debt $ 79.2 $ (60.0) $ (100.1) $ (6.6) $ 396.6 $ (21.7) $ (104.5) $ (0.8) $ (100.8) $ - $ -
Dividends $ (88.1) $ (95.7) $ (101.3) $ (102.5) $ (104.1) $ (152.4) $ (182.2) $ (212.4) $ (239.8) $ (278.5) $ (297.8)
Other $ 346.8 $ (98.5) $ (82.6) $ (18.8) $ (320.8) $ (56.5) $ 188.8 $ 172.2 $ (66.0) $ 57.3 $ 16.3

Cash from Financing $ 364.7 $ (219.5) $ (201.1) $ (313.7) $ (291.7) $ (504.4) $ (524.5) $ (342.2) $ (726.0) $ (585.8) $ (751.6)
Currency Adj $ (4.0) $ (3.3) $ (2.7) $ (0.2) $ 12.1 $ 1.6 $ 3.9 $ 9.7 $ 15.0 $ 0.8 $ (26.5)
Change in Cash $ (23.3) $ (10.7) $ 32.9 $ 161.0 $ 276.8 $ 199.5 $ 323.5 $ (42.6) $ (488.8) $ 319.0 $ (18.3)

Free Cash Flow


Cash from Operations $ 431.8 $ 615.5 $ 778.7 $ 836.0 $ 905.7 $ 1,100.3 $ 1,223.9 $ 1,076.4 $ 1,236.1 $ 1,688.0 $ 1,527.5
Cap Ex $ (311.6) $ (376.4) $ (370.8) $ (259.7) $ (261.0) $ (265.7) $ (317.6) $ (459.3) $ (556.4) $ (602.0) $ (559.2)

Free Cash Flow $ 223.0 $ 304.8 $ 336.6 $ 525.2 $ 630.6 $ 558.9 $ 792.2 $ 698.1 $ 774.9 $ 1,002.4 $ 1,072.6
Book Value Per Share $ 6.67 $ 7.44 $ 8.66 $ 9.28 $ 10.97 $ 11.62 $ 12.63 $ 14.99 $ 17.11 $ 20.23 $ 19.93
Company Name ticker
Becton Dickinson & Co BDX
8/15/2009 User Growth www.oldschoolvalue.com all figures in $Mil
10.00%
Desired MOS Growth Discount % Price Share Value Buy under Actual D/C % 52Wk High 52Wk Low
User Input Params
50% 10.0% 9.0% $ 66.39 $ 87.38 $ 43.69 24% $89.24 $58.14
Financial Data
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Income Sheet Data
Revenue $ 3,418.4 $ 3,618.3 $ 3,754.3 $ 4,033.1 $ 4,527.9 $ 4,934.8 $ 5,414.7 $ 5,834.8 $ 6,359.7 $ 7,155.9
Gross Profit $ 1,706.7 $ 1,770.0 $ 1,841.0 $ 1,949.4 $ 2,191.7 $ 2,434.4 $ 2,752.7 $ 2,948.0 $ 3,287.8 $ 3,663.4
Operating Income $ 445.3 $ 514.8 $ 645.9 $ 675.7 $ 749.1 $ 787.3 $ 1,031.2 $ 1,050.5 $ 1,203.2 $ 1,552.1
Net Income $ 275.7 $ 392.9 $ 401.7 $ 480.0 $ 547.1 $ 467.4 $ 722.3 $ 752.3 $ 890.0 $ 1,127.0
Diluted EPS $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 2.1 $ 1.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.5 $ 4.5

Cash Flow Data


Cash from Operations $ 431.8 $ 615.5 $ 778.7 $ 836.0 $ 905.7 $ 1,100.3 $ 1,223.9 $ 1,076.4 $ 1,236.1 $ 1,688.0
Free Cash Flow $ 223.0 $ 304.8 $ 336.6 $ 525.2 $ 630.6 $ 558.9 $ 792.2 $ 698.1 $ 774.9 $ 1,002.4

Balance Sheet Data


Current Assets $ 1,683.7 $ 1,660.7 $ 1,762.9 $ 1,928.7 $ 2,338.6 $ 2,641.3 $ 2,975.3 $ 3,185.3 $ 3,130.6 $ 3,614.7
Current Liabilities $ 1,329.3 $ 1,353.5 $ 1,264.7 $ 1,252.5 $ 1,043.4 $ 1,050.1 $ 1,299.4 $ 1,576.3 $ 1,478.8 $ 1,416.6
Total Liabilities $ 2,668.3 $ 2,549.1 $ 2,473.5 $ 2,552.5 $ 2,675.3 $ 2,684.7 $ 2,788.0 $ 2,988.3 $ 2,967.4 $ 2,977.4
Tangible Shareholder Equity $ 734.0 $ 1,007.9 $ 1,428.0 $ 1,301.6 $ 1,700.2 $ 2,028.8 $ 2,317.2 $ 2,745.4 $ 3,127.1 $ 4,220.2

Margins
Gross Margin 49.93% 48.92% 49.04% 48.34% 48.40% 49.33% 50.84% 50.52% 51.70% 51.19%
Operating Margin 13.03% 14.23% 17.20% 16.75% 16.54% 15.95% 19.04% 18.00% 18.92% 21.69%
Net Margin 8.07% 10.86% 10.70% 11.90% 12.08% 9.47% 13.34% 12.89% 13.99% 15.75%
Current Assets>1.5 times 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.6

Efficiency & Profitability


CROIC 10.76% 13.83% 12.77% 20.19% 18.93% 15.26% 20.82% 16.79% 16.79% 17.34%
FCF/Sales 6.5% 8.4% 9.0% 13.0% 13.9% 11.3% 14.6% 12.0% 12.2% 14.0%
Inventory Turnover 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.2
Return On Assets (ROA) 6.66% 8.79% 8.63% 9.75% 10.31% 8.25% 12.22% 11.67% 12.58% 14.79%
Retun On Equity (ROE) 16.78% 21.62% 19.12% 20.26% 20.59% 15.85% 22.85% 21.13% 21.71% 24.24%

Debt Related
Debt to Equity 150.9% 130.3% 106.2% 102.6% 92.3% 87.5% 84.9% 77.9% 68.0% 60.3%
Capitalization Ratio 35.0% 28.5% 25.2% 24.4% 29.0% 27.6% 24.4% 20.0% 18.0% 16.2%
FCF to Debt 8.4% 12.0% 13.6% 20.6% 23.6% 20.8% 28.4% 23.4% 26.1% 33.7%

Multi-Year Performance
2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 Median
Shareholder Equity 16.5% 20.1% 17.3% 15.5% 22.1% 16.7% 16.3% 16.2% 24.0% 16.7%
Free Cash Flow 5.3% 15.7% 3.4% 11.5% 8.2% 12.1% 11.8% -1.1% 19.8% 11.5%
CROIC 16.8% 16.8% 17.9% 16.8% 17.1% 18.9% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8%
FCF/Sales 12.2% 12.2% 12.9% 12.1% 13.1% 13.9% 12.0% 12.2% 12.2% 12.2%
ROA 11.7% 12.2% 11.0% 11.9% 12.4% 10.3% 11.7% 12.2% 12.6% 11.9%
ROE 21.1% 21.7% 20.9% 21.4% 22.3% 20.6% 21.1% 21.7% 21.7% 21.4%
Revenue Growth 8.9% 9.7% 8.8% 8.8% 9.7% 9.4% 8.7% 8.4% 10.7% 8.9%
Gross Margin 50.5% 50.8% 49.9% 50.7% 51.0% 49.3% 50.5% 50.8% 51.2% 50.7%
Operating Margin 18.0% 18.9% 17.3% 18.5% 19.0% 16.5% 18.0% 18.9% 18.9% 18.5%
Net Margin 12.9% 13.3% 12.5% 13.1% 13.7% 12.1% 12.9% 13.3% 14.0% 13.1%
Earnings Growth 13.9% 26.0% 12.3% 25.4% 17.2% 15.7% 28.7% 12.2% 23.4% 17.2%
Cash from Ops Growth 8.1% 11.3% 5.9% 4.0% 11.3% 16.2% -1.1% 0.5% 25.2% 8.1%

Projection of future Free Cash Flow


Growing at 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
10% $ 1,103 $ 1,213 $ 1,334 $1,414.97 $1,542.32 $1,681.13 $1,832.43 $1,869.16 $2,020.56 $2,184.23
Growing at 3% (Default) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
$ 2,249.75 $ 2,317.25 $ 2,386.77 $ 2,458.37 $ 2,532.12 $ 2,608.08 $ 2,686.33 $ 2,766.91 $ 2,849.92 $ 2,935.42

Company Valuation Free Cash Flow and Tangible Shareholder Equity Trend
Total Value $ 20,931 $4,500.0 $4,220.2
$4,000.0 FCF
Shares Outstanding 239.53
$3,500.0 $3,127.1
Per Share Value $ 87.38 Shareholder Equity
$2,745.4
Margin of Safety 50% $3,000.0
$2,317.2
Purchase Price $ 43.69 $2,500.0 $2,028.8
$1,700.2
Current Price $ 66.39 $2,000.0 $1,428.0 $1,301.6
Actual Discount 24% $1,500.0 $1,007.9 $1,002.4
$734.0 $630.6 $792.2 $698.1 $774.9
$1,000.0 $525.2 $558.9
Enterprise Value $ 16,330.00 $223.0 $304.8 $336.6
Enterprise Value/EBITDA 7.844 $500.0
$-
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Multi-Year Performance Graph
160.0%
Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Earnings Growth ROA ROE

140.0%
21.7% 21.4% 21.1% 21.7%
22.3%
120.0% 21.1% 21.7%
12.2% 20.9% 11.9% 20.6% 11.7% 12.6%
12.4%
100.0% 11.7% 10.3% 12.2%
26.0% 11.0% 25.4% 28.7% 23.4%
17.2%
13.9% 12.2%
12.3% 15.7%
80.0%
12.9% 13.3% 13.1% 13.7% 12.9% 13.3% 14.0%
12.5% 12.1%

60.0% 18.0% 18.9% 17.3% 18.5% 19.0% 18.0% 18.9% 18.9%


16.5%

40.0%

50.5% 50.8% 49.9% 50.7% 51.0% 49.3% 50.5% 50.8% 51.2%


20.0%

0.0%
2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008

Margin Percentages
60.00%
50.84% 50.52% 51.70% 51.19%
49.93% 48.92% 49.04% 48.34% 48.40% 49.33%
50.00%

Gross Margin
40.00%
Operating Margin

Net Margin
30.00%
21.69%
19.04% 18.00% 18.92%
17.20% 16.75% 16.54% 15.95% 15.75%
20.00% 14.23% 13.99%
13.03% 11.90% 12.08% 13.34% 12.89%
10.86% 10.70% 9.47%
8.07%
10.00%

0.00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Efficiency & Profitability Debt


30.00% 160.0%
CROIC FCF/Sales ROA ROE Debt to Equity Capitalization Ratio FCF to Debt

25.00% 140.0%

120.0%
20.00%
100.0%
15.00% 80.0%

60.0%
10.00%
40.0%
5.00%
20.0%

0.00% 0.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Sales, Receivables, Inventory

$8,000.0 Sales Accts Receivable Inventory

$7,000.0

$6,000.0

$5,000.0

$4,000.0

$3,000.0

$2,000.0

$1,000.0

$-
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM
Company Name ticker
Becton Dickinson & Co www.oldschoolvalue.com BDX
8/15/2009 all figures in $Mil
Desired MOS Growth Discount % Price Share Value Buy under Actual D/C % 52Wk High 52Wk Low
50% 10.0% 9% $ 66.39 $ 87.38 $ 43.69 24% $ 89.24 $ 58.14

Historical Stock Price Vs Intrinsic Value Per Share


100

Historical Price Intrinsic Value Buy Price Linear (Historical Price)

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
12/2/2002 6/2/2003 12/2/2003 6/2/2004 12/2/2004 6/2/2005 12/2/2005 6/2/2006 12/2/2006 6/2/2007 12/2/2007 6/2/2008 12/2/2008 6/2/2009
Company Name ticker
Becton Dickinson & Co BDX
8/15/2009 User Growth all figures in $Mil
10.00% www.oldschoolvalue.com
Desired MOS Growth Price Actual DC% Share Value Buy under P/B Ratio Net Net Working Capital
User Input Params
66% 10.0% $ 66.39 40% $ 111.27 $ 37.83 3.28 $ (2.73)

Earnings
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ 1.04 $ 1.49 $ 1.49 $ 1.79 $ 2.07 $ 1.77 $ 2.77 $ 2.93 $ 3.49 $ 4.46
Diluted EPS
2009 2010 2011 2012
$ 4.20 $ 4.95 $ 5.24 $ 5.78

Multi-Year Performance Median


2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008
Earnings Growth 13.9% 26.0% 12.3% 25.4% 17.2% 15.7% 28.7% 12.2% 23.4% 17.2%
EPS Weighted Average $ 2.61 $ 3.08 $ 2.39 $ 2.74 $ 3.41 $ 2.20 $ 2.49 $ 3.06 $ 3.63 $2.7

Company Stats $6.00


Normal Earnings $ 4.33 EPS
Linear (EPS) $4.95
Expected 5 Year Growth 10.00% $5.00 $4.46
10 yr AA Corp Bond Rate 5.12 $4.20
Book Value Per Share 20.23 $4.00 $3.49
Price to Book Ratio 3.28 $2.93
$3.00 $2.77
Enterprise Value Per Share $ 74.37
$2.07
$2.00 $1.79 $1.77
Company Valuation $1.49 $1.49
$1.04
Per Share Value $ 111.27 $1.00
Desired MOS 66.00%
Purchase Price $ 37.83 $-
Current Price $ 66.39 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual Discount 40%
Company Name ticker
Becton Dickinson & Co BDX
8/15/2009 www.oldschoolvalue.com
BDX ACL BAX BCR HSIC PDCO Industry Ranking
Stock Price 66.39 127.31 55.23 73.62 51.39 25.26 NA NA
Market Cap (millions) 15,890 38,030 33,290 7,190 4,630 3,110 NA NA
52-Week High 89.24 178.56 71.53 101.61 $60.42 $33.70 NA NA
52-Week Low 58.14 66.64 45.46 68.94 32.08 15.75 NA NA
% off 52-Week Low 14.2% 91.0% 21.5% 6.8% 60.2% 60.4% NA NA
Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio (TTM) 13.86 18.39 16.07 15.43 17.86 14.97 1.66 6
Price to Sales (TTM) 2.25 6.14 2.72 2.91 0.73 1.01 0.24 4
Price to Book (MRQ) 3.05 7.96 5.08 3.44 2.21 2.6 2.62 4
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 3.95 9.37 7.77 5.77 4.92 14.27 3.9 6
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 9.56 16.65 12.15 12.44 12.88 13.54 1.29 6
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 27.88 21.95 36.38 15.89 17.18 33.97 41.3 3
Enterprise Value/Revenue (TTM) 2.28 5.86 2.89 2.72 0.74 1.12 NA NA
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (TTM) 7.844 15.005 10.511 8.285 8.624 9.23 NA NA
Dividends
Dividend Yield 2.01 2.83 1.89 0.93 NA NA 0.08 2
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.28 1.35 1.47 0.73 0 0 0.89 3
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 23.3 48.17 9.42 6.96 0 0 13.32 2
Payout Ratio (TTM) 25.83 0 28.49 13.31 0 0 1.29 2
Growth Rates
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago -1.57 -3.35 -2.07 1.22 -1.82 0.19 0.37 3
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 2.25 6.14 2.72 2.91 0.73 1.01 0.24 4
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.65 13.06 6.76 11.34 14.89 9.46 6.55 4
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 17.2 3.22 12.49 47.14 14.91 -11.17 59.22 2
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 11.4 16.79 19.86 36.9 3.47 -0.84 0 4
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 16 28.78 14.03 20.47 12.39 9.23 11.44 3
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 14.99 15.1 3.79 -9.81 5.47 10.49 10.43 2
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio (MRQ) 1.99 2.12 1.35 4.25 1.28 2 1.83 4
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.73 2.43 2.08 5.43 1.98 2.8 2.44 3
LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 28.46 1.19 54.84 7.17 12.46 44.62 15.84 3
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 36.25 19.69 58.49 7.17 19.91 46.47 31.07 3
Profitability
Gross Margin (TTM) 52.43 76.92 51.1 61.74 29.46 33.72 5.54 3
Gross Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 50.98 75.09 45.73 61 28.86 34.61 45.81 3
EBITD Margin (TTM) 29.38 38.97 27.12 30.25 8.1 12.17 0 3
EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 26.02 36.37 21.75 26.82 7.29 12.92 20.16 3
Operating Margin (TTM) 22.64 35.74 22.27 26.26 6.85 11.19 1.6 3
Operating Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 19.44 31.71 16.51 23.76 6.09 11.96 14.78 3
Pre-Tax Margin (TTM) 22.47 33.82 21.31 26.26 6.58 10.33 1.48 3
Pre-Tax Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 19.22 31.74 15.34 23.76 5.86 11.61 14.61 3
Net Profit Margin (TTM) 16.77 33.67 17.56 19.67 4.43 6.45 1.15 4
Net Profit Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 13.86 27.06 12.11 17.7 3.81 7.29 9.47 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets (TTM) 13.97 27.83 13.76 18.34 7.89 9.48 1.05 3
Return On Assets - 5 Yr. Avg. 12.45 24.2 9.05 15.89 7.06 10.71 7.31 3
Return On Investment (TTM) 17.11 41.23 17.75 20.51 11.19 11.71 1.57 4
Return On Investment - 5 Yr Avg 15.62 40.4 12.45 19.3 10.04 13.35 9.74 3
Return On Equity (TTM) 23.07 48.25 31.14 24.26 13.06 18.22 2.5 4
Return On Equity - 5 Yr. Avg. 22.15 47.86 24.85 22.39 13.23 18.01 11.29 4
Efficiency
Revenue/Employee (TTM) 250187 402104 252144 224727 506549 441402 386369 NA
Net Income/Employee (TTM) 41947 135370 44289 44200 22446 28479 35485 NA
Receivable Turnover (TTM) 6.1 4.74 5.62 6.06 8.66 7.37 0.59 NA
Inventory Turnover (TTM) 2.86 2.32 2.36 3.2 6.24 7.44 0.3 NA
Asset Turnover (TTM) 0.83 0.83 0.78 0.93 1.78 1.47 0.09 4
Company Name ticker
Becton Dickinson & Co BDX
8/15/2009 www.oldschoolvalue.com

Net Profit Margin Cash Flow (Continuing Operations)


16.8% 1687.1
15.7% 1503.2
14.0% 13.3%
12.9% 12.1% 1269.9 1223.9
11.9% 1073.1 1100.3
10.7% 10.9%
9.5% 905.7 836.0
8.1% 778.6
615.5
431.8

TTM 2008/09 2007/09 2006/09 2005/09 2004/09 2003/09 2002/09 2001/09 2000/09 1999/09 TTM 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
16.8% 15.7% 14.0% 12.9% 13.3% 9.5% 12.1% 11.9% 10.7% 10.9% 8.1% 1503.2 1687.1 1269.9 1073.1 1223.9 1100.3 905.7 836.0 778.6 615.5 431.8
% Change 12.5% 8.5% -3.3% 40.8% -21.6% 1.5% 11.2% -1.5% 34.6% -- % Change 32.9% 18.3% -12.3% 11.2% 21.5% 8.3% 7.4% 26.5% 42.5% --

Magic Formula Investing -- Return on Capital Magic Formula Investing -- Earnings Yield
53.8% 55.8% 49.8% 52.8% 52.8% 52.1% 13.0% 12.3% 11.9% 12.2%
46.1% 44.9% 46.3% 47.3% 46.2% 10.8% 10.2% 10.2%
9.0% 8.6% 9.0%

0.0%

Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
46.1% 53.8% 55.8% 44.9% 46.3% 47.3% 46.2% 49.8% 52.8% 52.8% 52.1% 13.0% 12.3% 9.0% 8.6% #VALUE! 9.0% 11.9% 12.2% 10.8% 10.2% 10.2%
% Change -3.6% 24.2% -3.0% -2.0% 2.2% -7.2% -5.6% 0.0% 1.2% -- % Change 36.4% 4.6% #VALUE! #VALUE! -24.6% -2.7% 12.8% 6.3% -0.2% --

Return on Assets (ROA) Return on Equity (ROE)


13.5% 14.2% 23.0% 22.8% 20.4% 19.6% 22.0% 19.6% 20.5%
12.1% 11.9% 19.1% 19.2%
11.0%
9.8% 15.4% 16.0%
9.5% 9.1%
8.1% 8.7%
6.2%

2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
13.5% 14.2% 12.1% 11.0% 11.9% 8.1% 9.8% 9.5% 9.1% 8.7% 6.2% 23.0% 22.8% 20.4% 19.6% 22.0% 15.4% 19.1% 19.6% 19.2% 20.5% 16.0%
% Change 17.4% 10.0% -7.6% 46.9% -17.3% 3.2% 4.4% 4.6% 40.3% -- % Change 11.8% 4.1% -10.9% 42.9% -19.4% -2.6% 2.1% -6.3% 28.1% --

Current Ratio Quick Ratio


2.7 2.6 2.5 2.0
2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.7
2.0 1.5 1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4 1.3 1.0
1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8

2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12
2.7 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8
% Change 20.5% 4.8% -11.7% -9.0% 12.2% 45.6% 10.5% 13.6% -3.1% -- % Change 27.3% -4.1% -13.4% -6.6% 22.5% 50.5% 17.8% 15.0% -7.4% --

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen