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CMAI has just completed the 2000 World Butadiene Analysis. Demand is concentrated in its use in the manufacture of synthetic rubbers. Polybutadiene and SBR will lead all derivatives in the increase.
CMAI has just completed the 2000 World Butadiene Analysis. Demand is concentrated in its use in the manufacture of synthetic rubbers. Polybutadiene and SBR will lead all derivatives in the increase.
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CMAI has just completed the 2000 World Butadiene Analysis. Demand is concentrated in its use in the manufacture of synthetic rubbers. Polybutadiene and SBR will lead all derivatives in the increase.
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Verfügbare Formate
Als PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
281-531-4660 January, 2000 f0f lMM00l8l0 f0l0880. CMAI - Asia 140C Neil Road 088869 Singapore Singapore Tel: (65) 226-5363 Fax: (65) 226-5157 CMAI - USA 11757 Katy Freeway Suite 750 Houston, Texas 77079 United States Tel: (281) 531-4660 Fax: (281) 531-9966 CMAI - Europe 4th Floor, 14-16 Waterloo Place London SW1Y4AR United Kingdom Tel: (44 171) 930-9818 Fax: (44 171) 930-9819 CMAI - Latin America 2655 Le Jeune Road Gables Intl Plaza, Suite 918 Coral Gables, FL 33134 United States Tel: (305) 663-5720 Fax: (305) 663-5719 CMAI has just completed the 2000 World Butadiene Analysis. Butadiene demand is concentrated in its use in the manufacture of synthetic rubbers (chloroprene rubber, nitrile rubber, polybutadiene rubber and sty- rene-butadiene rubber) since 64.0 percent of the total demand for buta- diene will be consumed by these de- rivatives in 1999. Demand for buta- diene in the production of ABS resins and adiponitrile (for the production of nylon 6,6) are expected to see the highest average annual rate of growth for all derivatives during the period from 1998-2004. This will depend some what upon the timely startup of new ABS capacity that is planned in China. Polybutadiene and SBR will lead all derivatives in the increase in total tons of butadiene consumed. Demand for butadiene in these applications will increase by more than 800,000 tons during the period. The analysis finds that global demand for butadiene will increase at a an aver- age annual rate of 3.9 percent during the period from 1998 to 2004. This is a rate that is 10 percent lower than the compounded annual rate of 4.3 percent from 1994 to 1998. The world has been subdivided into ten major regions that are impor- tant to world trade in butadiene and its derivatives. Regions with the fast- est demand growth are Southeast Asia ABS 9% ADN 7% CPR 2% NBR 3% PBR 28% SBL 11% SBR 31% OTH 9% WORLD Total Consumption = 7683 Thousand Metric Tons 1999 BUTADIENE DEMAND
World Butadiene Demand by Derivative
(-000- Metric Tons) FORECAST 1998-04 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 %AAGR Demand ABS Resins 649 694 722 756 795 833 866 4.9 Adiponitrile 512 534 555 587 637 654 671 4.6 Polychloroprene Rubber 159 153 155 156 152 153 154 -0.5 Nitrile Rubber 248 254 263 271 276 287 297 3.1 Polybutadiene 2066 2117 2216 2303 2408 2485 2570 3.7 S.B. Latex 853 872 902 943 985 1025 1063 3.7 S.B. Rubber 2265 2359 2438 2540 2615 2688 2758 3.3 Others 651 700 769 810 853 888 918 5.9 Total World 7403 7683 8020 8366 8721 9013 9297 3.9 PCR/NBR/OTH 1058 1107 1187 1237 1281 1328 1369 4.4 and the India Subcontinent. Demand in the Former Soviet Union is expected to remain at a similar rate of growth to that experienced from 1994 to 1998. Lower rates of demand growth are forecast for most regions except South America and West Europe compared to the historic period. Africa will remain the smallest consuming region for butadiene in the world, and Northeast Asia is forecast to become the largest consuming region for refined butadiene in the world when it passes North America in 2000. New butadiene producing capacity is being added at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent. More than 410,000 tons of new capacity will come on line in Northeast and Southeast Asia (China, Taiwan, and Indone- sia), and since local demand will not consume all of the butadiene that can be produced, both regions will become exporters to the word (primarily North America). Globally, demand is forecast to outpace the rate of capacity additions, and this will push butadiene plant operating rates to over 87.0 percent of their designed capacity by the end of the period. This compares to a operating rate of 80.4 percent in 1999. The global butadiene balance shows that extraction unit operations will remain below 87.0 percent until late in the period. However, this is misleading since 13.0 percent of the worlds extraction capacity is located in East Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Because this area of the world will struggle to regain past levels of plant operations, it will act to overstate the worlds capacity to produce refined butadiene. If we subtract this area of the world from our bal- ance, the global view of plant opera- tions changes quite dramatically. Dur- ing the period from 1994-1998, ca- pacity was added at a 3.0 percent average annual rate of growth while demand was growing at a rate of 4.3 percent. From 1999-2004, capacity additions will slow to a AAGR of 2.8 percent, but demand is forecast to in- crease by 3.9 percent on an average annual basis. This difference between demand growth and capacity addi- tions will push butadiene plant opera- tions in the world (excluding East Eu- rope and the Former Soviet Union) to rates that will average more than 90.0 percent of nameplate capacity by 2001 and continuing through the period. A review of the change in trade patterns for butadiene and its major derivatives finds that net trade will remain relatively constant around 500,000 tons during 1999 and 2000, but a surge in butadiene trade to North America in 2001/2002 will push net trade above 600,000 tons. North America is adding ethylene production capacity during the period from 2000 to 2003 such that idled butadiene extraction capacity must be restarted and a new grassroots extraction plant must be built to purify the crude butadiene that will become available. The investment return on butadiene extraction units has not been sufficient to justify the construction of a grassroots extraction plant in the past. Older units will experience some capacity creep during the period, but a new plant will not come on stream until the second half of 2002 when the SHELL/BASF/TotalFina joint venture extraction unit (408,000 tons) is planned. Crude butadiene will be destroyed by hydrogenation or co-cracking until North Americas new butadiene extraction capacity comes on stream. The 2000 World Butadiene Analysis is CMAIs the 19th annual review of the factors that impact supply and demand for butadiene. Included in the analysis are capacity tables for all producing and consuming 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Prod. 3.9 Demand 4.0 Capacity 2.8 Op. Rate %AAGR 98-04 WORLD - Excluding East Europe & FSU BUTADIENE SUPPLY/DEMAND Thousand Metric Tons % Oper. Rate
plants in the world. Supply/demand
balances include historical information for 1994 through 1998, an estimate for 1999, and a forecast for 2000 through 2004. Also included are maps that show producing and consuming loca- tions by country and trade grids for both refined butadiene and crude butadiene. The analysis also includes a forecast of butadiene prices in the United States, West Europe and S. Korea for the forecast period. For further information please contact: Ms. Debbie Rhoden CMAI 11757 Katy Freeway, Suite 750 Houston, TX 77079 U.S.A. Tel: 281 531-4660 Fax: 281 531-9966 Email: Drhoden@cmaiglobal.com ### 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 BASF/TotalFina Shell Chemical PEMEX Nova/UCC FPC USA Dow Canada Dow Others Base BDE Cap. NORTH AMERICA OLEFINS EXPANSIONS CRUDE BUTADIENE EQUIVALENTS Thousand Metric Tons