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Overview
Typically, all radar-related investigations involve the 84th Radar Evaluation
Squadron (ACC), (84th RADES) Department of the Air Force, Hill Air Force Base, Utah.
That Squadron uses windows-based software to display radar files from the Joint
Surveillance System, a series of interlocking radar sites that allow NORAD to perform its
CONUS Air Defense mission.
I became intimately familiar with and extensively used that software, version
RS2, in a detailed, months-long investigation of the Cuban shootdown of two unarmed
civilian aircraft over the Straits of Florida in 1996. According to a November 1999 84th
RADES memo to the National Transportation Safety Board, "Analysis of Long Range
Radar Data: Egypt Air 990 Mishap, 31 Oct 99," the current version of the software is
RS3 and it can be provided to interested users together with a tutorial. According to that
memo, 84th RADES can also provide responsive radar files in an RS3 configuration to
aid investigators.
Points of Contact
Substantive points-of-contact have not changed over the years and they are
internationally known for their expertise. They are: Dallas Stone and Lanny Clelland,
who may be reached at DSN 777-2035, Commercial (801) 777-2035, e-mail:
lanny.clelland@hill.af.mil or dallas.stone@hill.af.mil. Mr. Stone will likely remember
me from my work on the Cuban shootdown; Mr. Clelland may as well.
Work Concerning 9/11.
According to web-available National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) information
the NORAD analyst most familiar with events of 9/11 is Cherie Gott. She presented a
"9-11 Analysis" at a June 2002 STK (Satellite Tool Kit) Users' Conference. The
curriculum for that conference described her presentation as follows:
Following the events of September 11, a scenario was created to serve
dual purposes: provide a graphical, time-centric depiction of the events to the
highest levels within NORAD and US Space Command Headquarters, and create
an interactive tool for forensic examination of the events. This analysis used the
hijacked airliner and NORAD interceptor radar data from 84th RADar Evaluation
Squadron (RADES) to accurately re-create the scenario using real-world FAA
radar data. In addition, the FAA radar coverage was modeled, to include terrain
considerations, to examine the loss of radar data observed for both the
Pennsylvania- and Pentagon-bound airliners. The entire scenario, including
high-resolution imagery, was then used to provide a useful visualization of the
events for further analysis.
Commission Sensitive
According to information at the web site www.stk.com Gott's analysis was based
on "primary radar and secondary radar (transponder) information available only from
official sources." She fused all data to develop a scenario that "enabled analysis of
visibility and communications between the hijacked aircraft; examination of NORAD's
intercept capabilities; and the evaluation of airspace control and surveillance sensor
contributions." Among other analyses she created time-to-target displays that showed
"when NORAD's intercept aircraft took off and their distances to the hijacked airlines."
Course of Action
Commission analysis should start with Gott's work. I can set that up once we
have formally engaged with the Department of Defense.
Overview of STK Users' Conference Application Track
CTI/ Application Track is the primary conference session, geared toward every level of attendee. It will consist of STK users and ACI rep-
O I IX resentatives presenting how STK's commercial off-the-shelf technology capabilities support specific defense applications; custom
systems integration; real-time operations; and mission design and analysis within their organization. In addition, AGI will be demonstrating
new features in STK 4.3 and discussing AGI's upcoming new technology products. Attendees can also participate in an interactive panel dis-
cussion of desired future enhancements to the STK software suite and ACI's technical services.
I
n the days following the Sept. 11 Hf^^^|H|^^H
terrorist attacks, the world watched B^^IE^l^^^l
as reporters and analysts replayed ^^^^I^^^^^H
existing film footage of the tragic disas- H^^SJH^^^^H
ters, studying the pictorial record for I^Hjj^^^^^^H
evidence of what had taken place. H^^^^l^^^^l
In Colorado Springs, CO, the ^^^^^^^HHH
North American Aerospace Defense ^^^^^^^^•••j I^^^^^^^^B By putting original source data into STK, NORAD
Command (NORAD), which protects ^^^^^^^^IHI ^^^^^^^^H examined the events of 9/11.
U.S. and Canadian airspace, also pieced ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
together information at its disposal, looking for forensic evi- had contributed to the widely reported loss of transponder sig-
dence. Among NORAD's analytical tools was Satellite Tool Kit. nal for the airplanes that crashed in Somerset County, PA, and
Cherie Gott, an analyst for NORAD and the U.S. Space into the Pentagon.
Command, is a 10-year STK veteran. Her job was to provide Among her analyses, Gott created time-to-target displays
graphical depictions of the events as they happened and to cre- that showed when NORAD's intercept aircraft took off and their
ate a tool that analysts could use if similar attacks ever distances to the hijacked airliners. She also performed a line-
occurred again. Her finished work, which was in the form of of-sight analysis between the two airplanes in the World
STK 2-D and 3-D dynamic animations, then went to the Trade Center attack. While she did much of the work herself,
highest-ranking officials within NORAD and the U.S. Space AGI helped out by writing a Perl script that sorted and
Command for internal analysis. processed the FAA data, generated the objects' flight paths, and
Gott's STK animations resembled the computer-generat- brought them into STK. AGI also created a "button tool" that
ed depictions the world saw on TV But since her analyses were allowed NORAD users to easily move to strategic points in
lOunded on primary radar and secondary radar (transponder) time. The finished video clips required no special hardware to
information available only from official sources, the use of STK run or skills to execute—viewers merely had to click a but-
provided NORAD and U.S. Space Command insight far ton and a media player showed the images.
beyond what film footage ever could. Working with AGI, "I can't stress enough the importance graphics play in
Gott fused diverse data sources to develop a true-to-life sce- analysis," says Gott. "Charts don't always explain a situation
nario that enabled analysis of visibility and communications fully, but seeing all the information put together in a 2-D or
between the hijacked aircraft; examination of NORAD's 3-D depiction is extremely helpful."
intercept capabilities; and the evaluation of airspace control And now as America moves forward, NORAD and AGI
and surveillance sensor contributions. She also incorporated continue to use their skills and technologies to fight the bat-
digital elevation terrain data to help discern if land formations tle against terrorism.
1 Nov 99
FROM: 84RADES/TO
7976 Aspen Ave
Hill AFB UT 84056-5846
SUBJECT: Analysis of Long Range Radar Data: Egypt Air 990 aircraft mishap 31 Oct 99
1. Introduction. At the request of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the 84th
Radar Evaluation Squadron (84 RADES) is releasing radar data from various long-range
surveillance radars providing coverage for Egypt Air aircraft crash on 31 Oct 99. Comprehensive
search and beacon radar coverage of the mishap was provided by the air route surveillance radar-
4 (ARSR-4) at Gibbsborro, NJ, Riverhead, NY, Oceana, VA and North Truro, MA. This data
was recorded at the Northeast Air Defense Sector Air Operations Center, Rome industrial Park,
NY.
The enclosed CD contains all radar data and products produced by the 84th RADES in support of
this incident. Software to view the recorded data is included along with quick instructions to
view the data (attach 1).
2. Radar Accuracy Constraints. The primary range accuracy limitation for both search and
beacon is 1/8 nmi, which is the value of the least significant bit in the radar target reports to end
users. Azimuth accuracy, primarily a function of radar beamwidth, is approximately 0.2 degree
for both search and beacon. Mode C height accuracy is primarily limited to 100 feet, which is
the value of the least significant bit in the Mode C altitude report. Mode C altitudes may vary
from 'true height' depending on atmospheric conditions. The aircraft's true altitude can be
obtained by algebraically adding its corresponding D-value (included in attachment 1) to the
Mode C report. In contrast, the ARSR-4 search height accuracy is primarily a function of radar
design and the physical world (e.g., propagation conditions and target size). The average search
height accuracy, based on specifications, is 3000 ft root mean square (RMS) of the true altitude,
but any single radar return height value could far exceed 3000 feet. Therefore, the ARSR-4
height values should be treated as approximate values. A good indication of the relative height
error can be obtained by comparing the associated Mode C height (including D values) with the
ARSR-4 height measurement. The height measurement values of 102,000 feet indicate the
ARSR-4 could not determine the height of the target and are used to represent an invalid height
value. In addition to these range, azimuth, and height accuracy factors, the ARSR-4 requires
approximately 12 seconds to complete each 360-degree azimuth scan. These scan rates preclude
contiguous aircraft positional information (i.e., prevents a high degree of track resolution).
Because of these intrinsic radar limitations, all radar plots illustrated in this analysis on a scan-to-
scan basis should be considered close approximations.
c. Attachment 3) — List of all radars recorded in the provided radar data files
d. Attachment 4) - Quick Instructions for use of RS3 Software (Note: We've also included
in the FTP directory a more in-depth RS-3 tutorial and sample files)
e. Products Provided
- Coverletter
- Coverletter Egypt Air 990 - (explanation of products)
-Data
- Filtered Flight 990 flight profile (RS3 configuration file)
- Filtered Flight 990 flight profile — closeup (RS3 configuration file)
- Complete data set (RS3 configuration file)
- Radar Data Interface (RDI) files to feed the configuration files
- Filtered Flight 990 flight profile (MS Excel file)
- Complete data set (MS Excel file)
-Final products
- Elevation Plot
- Filtered Flight 990 Profile overlaid on Maplnfo data
4. If you have any questions or need more information, please contact Mr Lanny Clelland at
DSN 777-2035, Commercial (801) 777-2035, or email: lanny.clelland@hill.af.mil.
Attachments
1. D-Values
2. Initial Event Summary (from 84RADES/OLAB, Rome NY)
3. List of Radars
4. RS3 Quick Instructions
Attachment 1
31 OCT 99 / 1200Z
(TRUE ALTITUDE = MODE C ALTITUDE + D VALUE)
AIRCRAFT MODE C
REPORTED ALTITUDE D-VALUE
FEET MSL FEET
1000. 383.
2000. 395.
3000. 405.
4000. 419.
5000. 437.
6000. 463.
7000. 492.
8000. 520.
9000. 547.
10000. 573.
11000. 600.
12000. 629.
13000. 656.
14000. 682.
15000. 706.
16000. 733.
17000. 764.
18000. 796.
19000. 829.
20000. 857.
21000. 883.
22000. 905.
23000. 923.
24000. 941.
25000. 960.
26000. 983.
27000. 1007.
28000. 1030.
29000. 1051.
30000. 1069.
31000. 1083.
32000. 1094.
33000. 1102.
34000. 1106.
35000. 1114.
36000. 1121.
37000. 1125.
38000. 1129.
39000. 1135.
40000. 1151.
Attachment 2
Event Summary
31Oct99
1. At 1110 Z on 31 Oct 99, TSgt Sustarsic NEADS/DOCB recalled OLAB personnel at the request of
New York Center to locate the position of Egypt Air flight 990 which they had lost contact with. The
last position for the aircraft was forwarded to Maj (CF) LaBelle NEADS/MCC at 1140 Z. An event
analysis was produced and given to the operations crew.
2. Information used in this report was collected by the 84 RADES/OLAB Radar Data Interface Recorder
and presented using RADES system 3. All information is based on data recorded from J-52 and J-53
ARSR-4 radar located in Riverhead, NY and North Truro, MA.
ID NAME EQUIPMENT
R51 BAR Harrington, Canada FPS117
J54 BUG Bucks Harbor, ME ARSR4
J63 CAR Caribou, ME ARSR4
J56 DAN Dansville (Buffalo), NY ARSRlE
J62 DTW Detroit, MI ARSRlE
J58 EMP Empire, MI ARSR4
J51 GIB Gibbsboro ARSR4
J60 NSH Nashuak, MN ARSR4
J53 NOR North Truro, MA - ARSR4
J01 OCA Oceana, VA ARSR4
J55 REM Remsen (Utica), NY ARSR4
J02 QFF Ft Fisher, NC ARSR4
J50 PLA The Plains, VA ARSR3
J52 RIV Riverhead, NY ARSR4
Attachment 4
General Information
The RS3 Help function should be referenced for "How To" instructions.
Users may select the appropriate buttons on the menu bar to start processing (play), reset (rewind), or stop (pause)
the playback of radar messages in RS3. Users can operate use any RS3 function such as turning on the chaining
function (chaining connects each radar message for the same track of interest based on the message timestamp) by
clicking on the appropriate menu bar button.
Quick Instructions for using RS3 and the RS3 Project Files
1) Follow the directions in the RS3 Installation Instructions.txt file to install RS3 on your system.
2) Copy all files to your hard drive, keeping the same file/directory structure.
3) If you copied the files from a CD-ROM, you will need to take the "Read Only" attribute off of each file in the
Data folder.
a) To do this, right-click on each file and select Properties from the pop-up submenu.
c) Click OK.
Do this procedure for each file in the Data folder you copied from the CD-ROM.
4) Go to Start->Settings->Control Panel->Display
On the Settings tab, set the resolution (Desktop Area) on your
system to 800X600. Use your mouse to move the slide arrow
(in middle right side of the screen) to change the resolution.
Click OK.
*** This is very important since the RS3 projects were saved in
in this resolution and will not be displayed properly unless the
resolution is changed to 800X600
5) Start RS3 by either double-clicking on the RS3 shortcut on your desktop (if one exists) or going to Start—
>Programs-->RADES-->RS3
Browse the files in the Data folder until you find the project file (".RS3" file) you want to open.
Select the project file; click Open.
7) To run the playback, click the Play (start processing) button in upper left-hand corner (next to a small text drop-
down menu with the word "End" in it).
8) To zoom, click the zoom menu button (red cross with dashed box border) on the top right corner of the lower
taskbar. This allows you to zoom in an area of interest.
Begin at the upper left hand corner of desired zoom area. Press
and hold the left mouse button; drag the mouse to lower right
hand corner of the desired zoom area and release the mouse
button. RS3 will zoom in on that area.
An Introduction to RS3
Please read our "Introduction to RS3" document included on this CD-ROM. This document is in Microsoft Word
format. This guide will help you get started using RS3 and includes several practice exercises to help familiarize you
with RS3.
Contact Information
If you have any questions please contact Mr. Lanny Clelland at (801) 777-2035 or Mr. Dallas Stone at (801) 777-
3194.
' ARSR-4 Air Route Surveillance Radar - United States Nuclear Forces http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/airdef/arsr-4.hti
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ARSR-4 Air Route Surveillance Radar
The Joint Surveillance System is a network of long range surveillance radars, primarily operated and
maintained by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), but providing communication and radar data to
both FAA and USAF control centers. The newest long-range search radar in the Joint Surveillance System
(JSS) that has recently been fielded is the Air Route Surveillance Radar Model 4 (ARSR-4). Providing air
defense and air traffic control for the continental United States, Guam, and Hawaii, forty joint radar sites
were installed during the 1992-1995 period. The ARSR-4 was fielded through a $1 billion Congressionally
mandated joint FAA and Air Force program, and each station costs over $12 million.
The FAA also operates several versions of Air Route Surveillance Radars (ARSRs) for air traffic control in
the adjacent 1215-1350 MHz band. These radars include the ARSR-1, ARSR-2, and ARSR-3. The
ARSR-4 Long Range Radar (LRR) Replacement program is designed to replace obsolete FAA air route
surveillance radars (ARSR-1/2) and Air Force long range radars (FPS-20/60 series) at 39 operational
joint-use facilities with new ARSR-4 systems, establish a new ARSR-4 "FAA only" site at Caribou, Maine,
/•"-^provide 1 ARSR-4 system to the FAA's training and support facility in Oklahoma City, OK, and deliver 3
additional systems to the Department of Defense. Forty-three of the 44 total systems have been installed
and accepted from the contractor, Northrop Grumman Corporation, as part of the FAA/Air Force Radar
Replacement (FARR) program.
Compared to the radars it replaced, the ARSR-4 is more reliable, easier to maintain, and increases the radar
coverage area from 200 to 250 nautical miles. This three-dimensional, solid state, unattended, long rang
surveillance radar has an operational frequency range of 1215-1400 MHz and uses dual-channel frequency
hopping technology for long-range and anti-jam search and tracking, and is capable of detecting small
objects by minimizing clutter, weather, and multipath effects. Each channel pair requires 83 MHz of
frequency separation to maintain its highest possible reliability. This radar system supports defense of the
national airspace and provides initial coastal civil air traffic control.
The FAA and Air Force are also concerned that continuing to reallocate spectrum used by the ARSR-4 will
further impact the dual-frequency hopping capability that is key to its design. The Air Force states that the
need to have frequency-hopping, anti-jam capabilities and the use of Air Traffic Control and other radars
will make retuning and/or restricted use difficult in some areas. The Air Force maintains that the
reallocation of the 1385-1390 MHz band segment will degrade the radar's frequency hopping capability
that is key to its design for antijamming defense. The FAA and Air Force state that reallocation at a
minimum could require software modifications estimated to cost $35 million. Spectrum congestion already
exists in this band and if the remaining available frequencies cannot support future dual-frequency
requirements, hardware modifications estimated at $588 million and taking 5 years to complete will be
required.
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Pagel of 2
* All times are Eastern Daylight Time; NEADS = North East Air Defense Sector, NORAD
** Scramble = Order to get an aircraft airborne as soon as possible
***Estimated = loss of radar contact
**** Flight times are calculated at 9 miles per minute or .9 Mach
***** The FAA and NEADS established a line of open communication discussing AA Fit 77 and UA Fit 93