Geostatistics for Reservoir

Characterization
Lecture 2b More probability
Geostatistics for Reservoir
Characterization
Lecture 2b More probability
In this section we will continue covering the
following topics ...
Combination of Events
Basic Operations
Conditional Probabilities
Definitions . . .
Experiment - using equipment to measure a
sample under given conditions (T)
Hassler cell for gas perm; density log; drill-stem test
Sample space - all possible values that the
measurement might give (O)
0 < k
plug
< ; 0 <
b
< ; 0 < |
plug
< 100%
Event - some part of the sample space O
E
1
= k
plug
< 10md = {k
plug
| k
plug
< 10md}
E
2
= |
plug
< 10% = {|
plug
| |
plug
< 10%}
Example 1
Net Pay and Core Data
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
86 pts
86 experiments, O = {0 < k
plug
< }
Let k
plug
= 1 md be the net pay cutoff
k
plug
> 1 md is an event E
1
Example 2
Net Pay and Core Data
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
86 pts
86 experiments, O = {0 < |
plug
< 100%}
Let |
plug
= 10% be the net pay cutoff
|
plug
> 10% is an event E
2
Combining Events . .
Intersection
E
1
E
2
= {x: x e E
1
and x e E
2
}
(the symbol e means is an element of)
E
1
E
2
Example 3
Net Pay and Core Data
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
86 pts
86 experiments, O = {0 < k
plug
< , 0 < | < 1}
k
plug
> 1 md is an event E
1
|
plug
> 10% is an event E
2
E
1
E
2
Example 2 from text
Intersection & Logging Tool
Responses
E
1
E
3
= {Facies 3}
Facies 1
Facies 2
Facies 3
Porosity
GR
GR
GR
GR
1
2
3
4
1 2 4
| | | |
3
E
E
E E
1
2
3 4
-
-
-
-
Basic Operations . .
Union
E
1
E
2
={x: x e E
1
or x e E
2
}
E
1
E
2
Example 2, text
Union & Logging Tool Responses
E
1
E
3
= {Facies 1 and Facies 3}
Facies 1
Facies 2
Facies 3
Porosity
GR
GR
GR
GR
1
2
3
4
1 2 4
| | | |
3
E
E
E E
1
2
3 4
-
-
-
-
Basic Operations . .
Complement
A
E
E
c
= {x: x e E}
Basic Operations . .
Null Set
E
1
E
2
= |
E
1
and E
2
are disjoint or mutually
exclusive
A
B
E
1
E
2
Probability . . .
Define an event E
Make n measurements (T)
Suppose m measurements satisfy E
We define the probability of E to be:
Prob(E) = lim
n
(m/n)
Probability - Examples
Procedure consists of two parts
An identifiable event E, e.g.,
E = Facies A at a particular location
E = 100 < k < 300 md for a core plug
A number p expressing event likelihood e.g.,
Of 300m gross pay in a well, 240m is productive
E = One meter of productive or net pay
p = Prob(E) = 240/300 = 0.80
Eighteen of thirty well tests had k > 100 md
E = well test with k > 100 md
p = Prob(E) = 18/30 = 0.6
Interpret probability as a frequency
Probability Example
Assessing Net Pay from Core Data
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
86 pts
Let E
1
= {k | k > 1 md}
Prob(E
1
) = 47/86 = 0.55
Probability Example
Assessing Net Pay from Core Data
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
86 pts
Let E
2
= {| | | > 10%}
Prob(E
2
) = 38/86 = 0.44
Key Point . . .
If areas on Venn Diagram are
proportional to m(E
1
) and m(E
2
),
they represent probabilities, e.g.
Prob(E
1
c
) = 1- Prob( E
1
)
Leads to fundamental algebra
of probabilities
Fundamental Law of Addition . . .
Prob(E
1
E
2
) =
(and)
Prob(E
1
)+ Prob(E
2
)-Prob(E
1
E
2
)
Prob(E
1
E
2
) = Prob(E
1
)+ Prob(E
2
)
for E
1
, E
2
mutually exclusive
(probabilities add)
Conditional Probability . . .
Prob(E
1
, E
2
) = Conditional
probability (probability of E
1
given
than E
2
has occurred)
Pr ob(E
1
| E
2
) =
Pr ob(E
1
E
2
)
Pr ob(E
2
)
Schematic of Conditional Probability . . .
E
1
E
2
Prob(E
1
| E
2
) =
In terms of Prob definition . . .
E
2
E
1

E
2
Prob(E
1
| E
2
) =
P(E
1

E
2)
P(E
2)
Probability Example 6, text
Assessing Net Pay from Core Data
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
86 pts
Recall E
1
= {k | k > 1 md} and E
2
= {| | | > 10%}
Prob(E
1
) = 0.55 and Prob(E
2
) = 0.44
Prob(E
1
E
2
) = 36/86 = 0.42 so
Probability Example
Assessing Net Pay from Core Data
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
86 pts
Prob(E
1
| E
2
) = Prob(E
1
E
2
)/Prob(E
2
) = 0.42/0.44 = 0.96
so IF | > 10%, we have a 96% chance of having net pay
On the other hand...
Probability Example
Assessing Net Pay from Core Data
IF | < 10%, what are our chances of net pay?
Prob(| < 10%) = Prob(E
2
c
) = 1 - Prob(E
2
) =1 - 0.44 = 0.56
Prob(E
1
E
2
c
) = 11/86 = 0.13 so
Prob(E
1
| E
2
c
) = Prob(E
1
E
2
c
)/Prob(E
2
c
) = 0.13/0.56 = 0.23
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
Probability Example
Assessing Net Pay from Core Data
In summary, based on core data given,
| > 10% is reliable indicator of net pay (96% correct)
| < 10% is less reliable non-pay (1 - 0.23 = 77% correct)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0 5 10 15 20
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
,

m
D
Porosity, %
Cond. Prob. . . . Special cases
E
2
E
1

Prob(E
1
E
2
)=
Prob(E
1
)
Prob(E
2
)
Cond. Prob. . . . Special cases
E
1
E
2
Prob(E
1
|E
2
) = 1
Cond. Prob. . . . Special cases
Null Event (ME events)
E
1 E
2
Prob(E
1
, E
2
) = 0
Prob(E
1
c
, E
2
) = 1
Multiplication Law
Conditional probability definition
more commonly written as . . .
Prob(E
1
E
2
) = Prob(E
1
,E
2
) Prob(E
2
)
An Important Special Case. . .
For E
1
and E
2
independent
Prob(E
1
| E
2
) = Prob(E
1
) . . . then
Prob(E
1
E
2
) = Prob(E
1
) Prob(E
2
)
(or)
(probabilities multiply)
Example . . . Probability of Rolling a Seven
with two dice
Prob(16) = (1/6)(1/6) = 1/36
Multiplication Law . . . Die independent
Prob(16)+ Prob(25) + Prob(34) + . . . =
1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 + . . .= 1/6
Addition Law . . . Each outcome mutually exclusive
Conditional Probabilities Uses . . .
Evaluating independence
Probability trees
Bayes theorem
Evaluating Independence . . .
Example 7, Text
Let A, B, C be facies in 5 vertical wells
Posi ti on Wel l 1 Wel l 2 Wel l 3 Wel l 4 Wel l 5
Top C B A B A
Mi ddl e A A B A B
Bottom B C C C C
Evaluating Independence . . .
Let E
1
= A is middle facies
E
2
= C is bottom facies
Are E
1
and E
2
independent?
Prob(E
1
) = 3/5
Prob(E
2
) = 4/5 , and
Prob(E
1
E
2
) = 2/5 . . . hence
Prob(E
1
) Prob(E
2
) = 12/25 = Prob(E
1
E
2
) = 2/5
E
1
and E
2
are not independent (i.e. there is a
characteristic sequence in the facies data)
Probability Tree for Exploration . . .
F
4
F
4
F
4
F
4
F
4
F
4
F
4
F
4
S
4
S
4
S
4
S
4
S
4
S
4
S
4
S
4
Prob( >2 successes)X10
4
: 144 108
72
64 16 48 72 128
96
64
-
0.2 0.4
0.6 0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4 0.6
0.6
0.1
F
3
F
3 F
3
F
3
S
3
S
3
S
3
S
3
0.2
0.2
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.4
0.1
0.9
F
2
F
2
S
2
S
2
0.9
0.1 0.8
0.2
F
1
S
1
Start
162
0.1 0.9
Want to drill four wells with initial 0.1 prob of success
Success prob doubles with previous success
What are probabilities of various outcomes?
Bayes Theorem . . .
Can express Prob(E
1
E
2
) two ways
Prob(E
1
E
2
) = Prob(E
1
,E
2
) Prob(E
2
)
or
Prob(E
1
E
2
) = Prob(E
2
,E
1
) Prob(E
1
)
Equating above gives cond prob formula
Prob(E
1
|E
2
) =
Prob(E
2
|E
1
) Prob( E
1
)
Prob( E
2
)
Example - Estimating Net Pay with
GR
Let
E
1
= k > 1 mD (ie net)
E
2
= GR < 30 API
-The field NTG is 0.7
-Core GR shows
GR < 30 for 60% of the time when k > 1
GR > 30 for 90% of time when k < 1
-New well shows GR < 30 for 80% of interval
-What is best NTG estimate for the new well?
Example - Estimating Net Pay with GR
E
1
= k > 1 mD (ie net)
E
2
= GR < 30 API
-Probabilities BEFORE new well is measured
Field NTG is 0.7: Prob(E
1
) = 0.7
Core GR < 30 for 60% when k > 1: Prob(E
2
|E
1
) = 0.6
Core GR > 30 for 90% of time when k < 1: Prob(E
2
c
|E
1
c
) = 0.9
-Probabilities AFTER new well is measured
GR < 30 for 80% of interval: Prob(E
2
) = 0.8
Example - Estimating Net Pay with
GR
-Field NTG is 0.7: Prob(E
1
) = 0.7
-Core GR < 30 for 60% when k > 1: Prob(E
2
|E
1
) = 0.6
-Core GR > 30 for 90% when k < 1: Prob(E
2
c
|E
1
c
) = 0.9
-So, BEFORE the new well is measured,
93 . 0
3 . 0 1 . 0 0.7 6 . 0
7 . 0 6 . 0
) | ( ob Pr
) ( ob Pr ) | ( ob Pr ) ( ob Pr ) | ( ob Pr
) ( ob Pr ) | ( ob Pr
) | ( ob Pr
2 1
1 1 2 1 1 2
1 1 2
2 1
=
+

=
+
=
E E
E E E E E E
E E E
E E
c c
51 . 0
3 . 0 9 . 0 0.7 4 . 0
7 . 0 4 . 0
) | ( ob Pr
) ( ob Pr ) | ( ob Pr ) ( ob Pr ) | ( ob Pr
) ( ob Pr ) | ( ob Pr
) | ( ob Pr
2 1
1 1 1 1
1 1
1
2 2
2
2
=
+

=
+
=
E E
E E E E E E
E E E
E E
c c c c
c
c
Example - Estimating Net Pay with
GR
-AFTER well is measured,
GR < 30 for 80% of interval: Prob(E
2
) = 0.8
-Best estimate of NTG using prior info and current measurement:
Prob(E
1
) = Prob(E
1
E
2
) + Prob(E
1
E
2
c
)
Prob(E
1
|E
2
)Prob(E
2
) + Prob(E
1
|E
2
c
)Prob(E
2
c
)
= 0.93(0.8) + 0.51(0.2) = 0.85
Points to note:
-NTG is neither field value of 70% nor single-well estimate of 80%
-Best guess exceeds 0.8 from log
Key Points . . .
Definitions:
Null set, complement, mutually
exclusive, independent, union,
intersection, a priori, a posteriori
Fundamental laws: addition and
multiplication
Conditional probabilities
Bayes theorem