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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities,


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11/24/2013 7:55 AM

Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/316497-eric-parnell-positions-for-2012-getting-defensive-with-ut...

Consumer Staples, Precious Metals, TIPS, Agency MBS


Dec 29 2011, 12:53 | 30 comments by: Eric Parnell | includes: CNP, DRU, ELA, GLD, IAU, IJH, LNT, MBB, MDY, PHYS, SJM, TIP, WGL, XCJ, XLP, XLU, XLV BOOKMARKED / READ LATER

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Added to your bookmarks on the Seeking Alpha homepage Remove Bookmark This is the 8th piece in our Positioning for 2012 series. Readers can find the entire Positioning For 2012 series here. Eric Parnell is the Founder & Director of Gerring Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor based in Chester County, Pennsylvania and serving clients nationwide. Eric founded Gerring Wealth Management in 2005 with the mission to provide clients with personalized investment services at a low cost. In addition to his work with Gerring Wealth Management, Eric serves as a professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University teaching courses in Finance, Economics and Statistics. He is a CFA charter-holder. Prior to starting Gerring Wealth Management, Eric served as the Director of Investment Communications for SEI Investments and as an Economist for Moody's Analytics. Seeking Alpha's Jonathan Liss recently spoke with Eric to find out how he planned to position clients in 2012 in light of his understanding of how a range of macro-economic and geopolitical trends were likely to unfold in the coming year. Seeking Alpha (SA): How would you generally describe your investing style/philosophy? Eric Parnell (EP): My investment philosophy is an absolute return focused strategy. The priority when managing client accounts is to first limit the risk of loss. In other words, I seek to minimize the potential for a negative absolute return. I then seek to maximize positive returns within this risk-controlled framework with the objective of generating an annualized rate of return in excess of 10% over a long-term horizon. The implementation of this strategy includes the utilization of a broad range of asset classes including stocks, bonds, commodities and select other asset categories that have low to negative correlations with one another. SA: Within equities, are there any particular sectors or themes you are currently overweight or underweight? If so, why? EP: I have been concentrating equity exposures toward more defensive sectors including consumer staples and utilities since the end of QE2 in
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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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June. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis several years ago, the stock market has shown a heavy dependence on monetary stimulus. But once that stimulus goes away, market volatility and economic uncertainty quickly returns. In an environment without the potential for any further monetary policy intervention, I would likely hold a zero weight to stocks. This is due to the fact that the necessary deleveraging process would have the opportunity to play itself out, which would lead to a period of economic contraction as the excess debt is cleansed out of the financial system. But the potential for aggressive monetary policy intervention such as the announcement of QE3 by the Federal Reserve remains an ongoing possibility, which I refer to as policy risk. In order to protect against this policy risk and the associated explosive rise in stocks, I maintain an allocation to stocks that is proportional to other asset classes in the portfolio. During periods when the Fed is actively and aggressively engaged in QE, I have typically looked to maintain more broadly based stock exposure through the use of exchange traded funds. Leading among these are the SPDR Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) or the iShares Mid-Cap 400 (IJH), as I believe the mid-cap area of the stock market provides an attractive meeting point between the higher growth potential typical of small caps along with the relatively stable characteristics of large caps. I then seek to complement these exposures with selected stock names that offer particularly attractive upside. And during periods of greater uncertainty such as today, I seek to manage against the daily volatility of the stock market while still capturing opportunities. This leads to a strategy that includes mostly individual stock names. I seek to focus these exposures on the least volatile sectors, mainly in consumer staples and utilities. And with the uncertainty emanating out of Europe in the current environment, this includes companies whose revenues are primary generated in the United States such as J.M. Smuckers (SJM), WGL Holdings (WGL), Alliant Energy (LNT) and CenterPoint Energy (CNP) among others. Beyond individual exposures, I will also seek to use the more defensive Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), Health Care SPDR (XLV) or Utilities SPDR (XLU) in spots for more diversified defensive exposures. SA: Which asset classes are you overweight? Which are you underweight? Why? EP: Because of policy risk, opposing forces define the current market environment. If policymakers act with more aggressive monetary stimulus in the coming months, recent economic growth will likely continue for the time being and risk assets such as stocks, commodities (including precious metals) and even U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are likely to perform well. Agency MBS would also likely perform well since it is the likely focus of any future QE3 program from the Fed. Conversely, if policymakers, particularly in Europe, continue to delay in addressing the crisis across the region, the economy is likely to slow if not contract in many regions and safe haven categories such as U.S. Treasuries and precious metals are likely to outperform. Given these two divergent outcomes, I am seeking to emphasize those asset classes that stand to benefit from either outcome. These include Gold (GLD, IAU, PHYS), U.S. TIPS (TIP) and Agency MBS (MBB). SA: You mention Gold as an asset that is likely to benefit from either outcome. Do you believe gold is a genuine hedge in uncertain markets? If so, how much exposure to it or other precious metals do you have? If not, where are you turning for potential downside diversification? EP: Gold is one of many low to negatively correlated asset classes that have purpose in uncertain markets. Over time, Gold has been virtually uncorrelated with Stocks, so Gold does provide a genuine hedge for Stocks in the current environment.

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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But turning this perspective around, Stocks also provide a genuine hedge for Gold. And several other asset classes provide genuine hedges for both Stocks and Gold. This is why I believe that relatively proportional allocations to these and other asset classes are particularly worthwhile to control against risk amid market uncertainty. Gold is particularly attractive in the current market environment. If we were operating in a climate defined by consistent growth, price stability and steady global currencies such as the late 1980s and 1990s, Gold would have limited appeal even as a hedge. But these characteristics do not define todays market. Instead, the economic outlook is highly uncertain including the looming threat of crisis, price instability including the potential for both hyperinflation or deflation, and competitive global currency debasement along with the potential destruction of the euro. All of these factors are highly favorable for Gold as both a total return instrument as well as a hedge for other asset classes including stocks. SA: You mentioned several gold funds earlier. Whats your preferred vehicle to play gold? EP: While I understand the appeal of actually holding the physical in your hands, my preferred vehicles to establish an exposure to gold is through the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU) or Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), as each track the underlying gold price with limited tracking error and also provide the liquidity to enter or exit positions as needed through exchange traded instruments. SA: Some describe the current era as The Great Deleveraging. Do you agree/disagree, and does this macro consideration affect your investment planning process? EP: I believe the global economy has reached a threshold where it can no longer sustain the debt it has accumulated over the past several decades. The bills are now coming due, and the transfer of these liabilities to the public sector has delayed the cleansing process. Unfortunately, the longer this deleveraging process is postponed and the more additional debt that is used to help prevent existing obligations from entering into default, the more painful and chaotic the final correction process is likely to be. As a result, this macro consideration has been central to my investment planning process for the last several years and will likely continue to be for some time. SA: 2010-11 saw a notable rush for the exits from equities and equity vehicles. Is this a cyclical, or secular shift? What would it take to bring them back? EP: Investor confidence in the stock markets has suffered greatly in the years since the crisis. This is not necessarily due to the sharp stock market corrections weve seen along the way. Instead, I believe its more attributable to the uncertainty caused by the various policy interventions to address the crisis. While policy stimulus typically drives stock prices higher, investor confidence is not bolstered by a stock market that just goes up. Instead, it is supported by a stock market that makes sense. Investors are not easily fooled. They see whats going on in the world all around them. They see a U.S. economy that is chopping along in fits and starts. They see the instability of the European debt crisis and the potential for the outbreak of another global financial contagion. Yet they watch a stock market that switches from plunging toward despair to euphorically floating higher at a moments notice and often without any reason. And in recent years these sudden shifts have almost always been due to the initiation of a policy action. This additional unpredictability causes an understandable feeling of distrust in the stock market for many investors, as they are now conditioned to view both sharp corrections and swift rallies with suspicion.

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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The move away from equities has still not deteriorated to the point of becoming a secular shift, however. But the longer the unpredictability continues, the more entrenched investor distrust will become. Looking ahead, the key to drawing investors back is a stock market that begins to act in a way that makes sense. Even if it means that stocks are down for an extended period of time, as long as investor have the confidence that the analysis behind their decision making can actually be validated, they will return to the stock market. But as long as policy actions continue to dramatically distort the stock market, investors will continue to stay away even if its going up. SA: That certainly makes sense from a behavioral point of view. In your opinion, are U.S. equities as an asset class currently underpriced, overpriced, or fairly valued? EP: I would contend that stocks as an asset class are actually overvalued at present. While stocks may appear undervalued on a 12-month reporting earnings basis relative to its historical averages, this must be considered in context, as stocks are undervalued right now for several reasons. Three key factors influence how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings confidence that companies are able to grow earnings, the stability of underlying prices, and the general market uncertainty (i.e. the potential for a sharp contagion style downdraft in stocks). All three of these factors are under stress in the current environment, so investors are willing to pay less for each dollar of earnings than they might otherwise in a more stable market environment. And they may be inclined to pay even less for each dollar of earnings before its all said and done if events unfold badly in the coming months. SA: Inflation or deflation? Growth or recession? Which way is the U.S. economy headed and how will you be positioning clients? EP: The underlying forces behind the U.S. economy are tilted toward deflation and recession. Consumers and financial institutions spent decades accumulating excessive levels of debt. And these liabilities are not worked off overnight. Instead, this deleveraging process takes time and involves a deflationary reduction in aggregate demand. However, the persistently aggressive actions by policymakers result in forces that are shifted towards inflation and growth. Policymakers have decided to take an active approach in working to manage the deleveraging process and its associated impact on the economy. Thus, we could just as easily see a period of inflation and growth depending on how stimulus might be applied in the coming year. This highlights the importance of maintaining a hedged portfolio with an asset allocation emphasizing those categories that can perform well in any number of widely divergent economic scenarios. SA: Is the U.S. housing market still an issue or not so much anymore? Will prices continue to fall? EP: While the ongoing crisis in Europe remains the most pressing problem at present, the housing market in the U.S. is still a core issue in its own right. The house is by far the largest asset for most consumers, and it is an asset that they can utilize to support a variety of other consumer and capital expenditures including funding for small business activity. Consumers have been coping over the last few years with a decline in the value of this asset. And as long as the perceived instability of home values continues to overhang the market, it will serve as an ongoing drag on growth.
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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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SA: Do you have exposure to either REITs or residential real estate in client portfolios? EP: I do not have exposure to REITs or residential real estate at the present time, although I have had positions in the recent past and actively evaluate this area of the market for potential opportunities. SA: Where do you see Treasury yields in 12 months? Are Treasuries worth buying at current (low) yields? For clients requiring income, where have you been turning in this low yield environment? EP: The outcome for Treasury yields will depend largely on monetary policy actions over the coming year. If we see a full-blown crisis erupt in Europe, or if the U.S. economy falls back into recession, Treasuries will thrive and we could easily see yields set new lows. However, if policymakers intervene aggressively with more monetary stimulus and the crisis in Europe is contained for the time being, this would be decisively bearish for nominal U.S. Treasuries and yields would likely move higher. Given the fact that nominal U.S. Treasuries have already had a strong run for most of 2011 and are now a bit stretched at present, I am favoring U.S. TIPS, usually via the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) as an alternative, particularly since TIPS are better suited to benefit from either of the two divergent outcomes described above. But my interest in nominal U.S. Treasuries would likely be renewed following any prolonged sell-off. For those clients requiring income in the current low yield environment, I have been recently focusing on Agency MBS (MBB), which provides a significant yield premium versus U.S. Treasuries at a comparable duration while also essentially having the same explicit backing by the U.S. government. I have also been focusing on selected Utilities Preferred Stocks (XCJ, DRU, SCU, ELA), or exchange traded debt to be exact, that offer high yields but are not exposed to the same extreme volatility that has been plaguing the overall preferred stock market due to its heavy weighting to financials. SA: What is the ideal asset allocation for someone with a long-term horizon (greater than a decade) and no need to touch their investments? Can investors continue to rely on stocks after the lost decade we just experienced? EP: The notion of buy-and-hold investing is best suited for secular bull markets. These past phases including the periods from 1946-1966 and 1982-2000 that were defined by steady growth and price stability. In such environments, asset classes generally perform with consistency and predictability, which makes any corrective periods much more tolerable for investors to endure. Today we are in the throes of the most violent stages of a secular bear market. Weve experienced these markets before from 1929-1946, 1966-1982 and since 2000. What is unfortunate about these periods (including our current one) is that massive amounts of wealth can be vastly diminished in a matter of days. And the asset classes under pressure can change depending on the forces driving the market at any given point in time. Thus, investors must periodically evaluate their asset allocation mix to make sure that they are not unduly exposed to any particular risks that have surfaced in the rapidly evolving market environment. I am not suggesting in any way that investors should resort to market timing, but we are also not operating in an environment today where investors can simply allocate their capital and forget about their investments for the next ten years.
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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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After all, it took stocks a full 25 years to recover their value during the Great Depression. Thus, keeping an eye on markets and staying involved in a highly disciplined way is much better served in todays environment. The good news is that investors can continue to rely on stocks along with the variety of other asset classes over the long-term. As mentioned, weve been here before in dealing with crisis. This isnt the first time and it wont be the last. And while it may not feel this way right now, it is much better that we are actively engaged in dealing with all of the problems and excesses that brought us to this point. The global economy will eventually emerge from this process in much better shape than it was a decade ago, and once it does we will find ourselves at the beginning stages of a new secular bull market. And this will be an exciting time for investors. As we continue to navigate the challenges of the current market in the meantime, the ideal asset allocation is one that is broadly diversified and hedged across a variety of categories that have low to negative correlations with one another and are suited to perform well regardless of the widely divergent outcomes that might arise in the coming months. At present, these include a proportional blend to high quality defensive U.S. stocks, U.S. TIPS, Agency MBS, precious metals such as Gold and Silver and selected Utilities Preferred Stocks. An allocation to Cash also makes sense in the current environment, as it provides both short-term portfolio stability as well as the flexibility to step in and buy if others end up being flushed out of the market in the coming weeks or months. Disclosure: Eric is long SJM, WGL, LNT, CNP, XLU, GLD, TIP, MBB, SLV, XCJ, DRU, SCU, and ELA. Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Gerring Wealth Management (GWM) makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made by GWM. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by GWM will be met. 1,525 people decided to get SJM articles by email alert Get email alerts on SJM
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Emailed to: 52,917 people who get ETFs & Portfolio Strategy daily. Tagged: ETFs & Portfolio Strategy, Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation, 2012 Outlook, CFA charter-holders, Editors' Picks, Interviews Problem with this article? Please tell us. Disagree with this article? Submit your own. Articles that link to this one Positioning For 2012: Guide To The Series by SA Editors More articles by Eric Parnell Stocks: The Waiting Is The Hardest Part Sun, Nov 3 Stocks And QE: All Things Must Pass Thu, Oct 17 The Real Crisis For Washington And Wall Street Thu, Oct 10 Stocks And The Fed: Why I'm Staying In Cash Thu, Oct 3 Stocks: Strategies For A Challenging Decade Ahead Wed, Sep 4 Comments (30) Register or Login to rate comments O. Young Kwon Comments (910) Hi Eric. Broad, well-focused, and sound investment goals and strategies. Investors and traders can benefit from your views and assessments on markets in 2012. TIPS and Agency MBS are in my allocation. Thanks. Happy New Year. Young 29 Dec 2011, 01:31 PMReplyLike3 Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hi Young, Thanks for your comment. I've appreciated your excellent thoughts and perspectives throughout the year and look forward to collaborating more in 2012. Happy New Year! 29 Dec 2011, 01:41 PMReplyLike3

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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ETFSuperfreak Comments (35) Eric, Nice article. Are you buying any commodities other than gold and silver, i.e. precious metals? Personally as a hedge in this choppy market, I prefer broader commodities exposure that includes items with real utility such as ag, oil/nat. gas and industrial metals. 29 Dec 2011, 01:53 PMReplyLike4

Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello ETFSuperfreak, Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it. I actively monitor the entire commodities complex, as I share your view about commodities with real utility including those that you've mentioned. Right now, I have a zero weight to the commodities sector outside of Gold and Silver mainly due to my concerns about the cyclical outlook for the economy particularly given the situation in Europe. With this being said, if we see the launch of QE3 or some aggressive monetary stimulus program in the coming months, I will be actively looking to reinstate long cyclical commodity positions. From a secular standpoint, I'm very interested in the natural gas space, although it still seems far too early at this point. But I watch it closely including several of the key equity names that are most concentrated in the domestic space (for example, I had owned Petrohawk but sold it prior to the BHP Billiton acquisition, a miss that I still regret (also owned BHP for about a decade prior to the crisis - one of my favorite stocks)). I am interested in your perspective. What instruments are you using to establish exposure to the commodities markets? Thanks again for your comment. I look forward to reading your reply if you have the opportunity. Happy New Year! 30 Dec 2011, 12:01 PMReplyLike3

At1223 Comments (18)

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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what do you think of the agricultural commodities, given the increasing demand in emerging markets? Even if China gets hurt and India's inflation continues, they still need food 29 Dec 2011, 05:59 PMReplyLike2

Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello At1223, Thanks for your comment. I have been very positive on agricultural commodities from a secular perspective for some time in part for the reasons you've mentioned. I am currently at a zero weight to agricultural commodities right now, however, for reasons that I first discussed on SA back in May (I've included a link below for reference). Basically, I view this area of the market as one of the first leading indicators for stocks and other cyclical sectors. As a result, I watch the chart of $GKX religiously. Right now it's trapped in a downtrend below its 50-day M.A., but if we see any indications of an improvement in the technical picture here, I would likely move fairly quickly to a fully allocated position. http://seekingalpha.co... Out of curiosity, what are your preferred securities to establish ag exposure? I'm interested in your perspective. Thanks again and Happy New Year! 30 Dec 2011, 12:09 PMReplyLike1

At1223 Comments (18) In the last 6 months, it looks like corn has hit its support, and its 15 day MA is approaching its 50 day MA. Corn went up 18% year to date, better than all the major indices. Ethanol production continues to increase and as I said, food consumption is on the up and up, especially as an economic boom in the part of the country where corn is produced occurs. This would be great to cash in on, but the ETF CORN has underperformed the actual commodity, but once that gets in order, as the economy speeds up, I'd get in on it. It did better than gold this year, and its not at an all time high. I'd also look into lean hogs, and in turn grains. I think of hogs as a hedge against cattle since they're easier to raise industrially, cheaper to produce, which makes higher margins. Pork is also an emerging markets play because of this, as the emerging markets looks headed to uncertainty as China's hype starts to fall. 30 Dec 2011, 05:09 PMReplyLike1

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello At1223, These are some very interesting points. Thanks for sharing your perspective. In regards to your point on lean hogs, are you playing this directly or through the grains instead? Thanks again. 1 Jan 2012, 11:58 PMReplyLike0

FitzGerald Comments (69) Agency MBS appears over valued simply because its a crowded trade. Non-agency looks to be a much better value especially for mortgages written post the 2009 crash as lending standards tightened significantly. 29 Dec 2011, 10:43 PMReplyLike2

Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello FitzGerald, Thanks for your comment. You raise an excellent point here. Are you currently allocating to Post 2009 Non-Agency MBS in your portfolio? If so, are you buying individual issuance or are you using any exchange traded instruments? I'm interested to learn more about your approach on this specific area of the market. Thanks for your comment and Happy New Year! 30 Dec 2011, 11:44 AMReplyLike0 farmland investments Comments (173) This is one of the better written investment pieces I've seen. I enjoy reading articles that a broad view rather than going into minute detail on individual stocks. I think the non-agency MBB seems like a good trade as well. I read an article somewhere about the best bond investor today (no, not Bill Gross!) Jeffrey Gundlach being extremely well disposed towards non-MBB. A little nervous about TIPs though, as they've

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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had quite a run-up. 29 Dec 2011, 11:03 PMReplyLike3

Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello farmland investments, Thanks for your comment and your kind words. I appreciate it. I agree with you on Gundlach, as I've followed him as well for some time. His opinions are always worth hearing/reading. Thanks also for your point about TIPS. I've actually been in an ongoing conversation over e-mail with one of my readers and we recently talked about TIPS in the current environment. As a result, I'm planning on putting together an article for SA on TIPS sometime soon. Hopefully next week. Thanks again and Happy New Year! 30 Dec 2011, 11:48 AMReplyLike2

Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello farmland investments, I saw your profile and visited your blog at the link below. Great information and I'm interested in reading your future commentary. http://bit.ly/sFcPDs Thanks again. 30 Dec 2011, 12:18 PMReplyLike0 farmland investments Comments (173) Thank you for your kind words Eric! Needless to say, relation to the points above, I am very big on the ag sector. Food prices will continue to stay high for a variety of reasons, and in the long run, those in the ag space will do extremely well. I prefer farmland as I don't like trying to guess what this or that futures ETF will do over a short-term, as I am convinced a lot of financial speculation goes into the prices. Its kind of like holding real gold, as opposed to playing gold futures. 2 Jan 2012, 12:58 AMReplyLike0

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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talld Comments (527) if you look at the chart for gold for the two to five year time period, it is a pretty good example of head and shoulders, with support at 1400 adn then 1200. If someone is a technician and thinks I am wrong, please let me know why this isnt a head and shoulders? 30 Dec 2011, 12:18 AMReplyLike3

Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello talld, Thanks for your comment. I've looked at the charts as you've described but was unable to completely piece together the pattern you've described. Do you have a chart that you could send? I would be interested to take a look. I'll am interested to hear more about your work with AI and financial markets. Thanks again and Happy New Year!! 30 Dec 2011, 12:27 PMReplyLike0

talld Comments (527) Eric, If you go to Yahoo and select GLD and then set the time period to either two years of five years, there seems to be a Head and Shoulder pattern there to me. I think I have done pretty well with the AI stuff, but only time will tell. I am nearing completion of the initial engine and data tracking, replication, blah blah blah and will be ready to start backtesting fairly soon. I had assumed that I was years behind the state of the art, but maybe I am closer than I realized is what is going on with me today. 30 Dec 2011, 05:52 PMReplyLike0

untrusting investor Comments (9880)

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

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Good overview. Would be a bit more defensive in current environment, but each investor has to make that decision. 30 Dec 2011, 04:08 AMReplyLike2

Eric Parnell Comments (1643) Hello untrusting investor, Thanks for your comment. I think you raise a good point about managing risk in the current environment, as the prudent choice when making allocation decisions right now is to fall on the side of being defensive. Thanks also for your outstanding commentary and analysis on my and many articles on the SA over the past year. Have a Happy New Year and I look forward to following more of your commentary in 2012. 30 Dec 2011, 11:39 AMReplyLike1

Cranky Comments (2959) Eric, awesome article. Thanks so much. Many (professionals as well) do not understand what true diversification and protection requires. I really appreciate how you weave in the effect of government manipulation and how it will afffect your investment decisions. Thanks again... 30 Dec 2011, 07:19 AMReplyLike3

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Publish SJM vs. ETF alternatives ETFs Today 3 Mths 1 Yr YTD

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SSO 0.9% 18.1% SJM 0.9% -4.2% RWL 0.5% 9.6% PRF 0.5% 8.5% XLP 0.5% 7.3% SPY 0.5% 8.5% SDY 0.3% 7.5% EPS 0.2% 8.1% IPS 0% 4.8% Alpha-Rich Ideas

66.0% 61.6% 20.8% 20.5% 35.4% 32.5% 33.0% 30.3% 21.0% 23.7% 27.9% 27.0% 26.7% 26.5% 30.1% 27.4% 14.3% 12.3%

Eric Parnell Articles (415) Comments (1,643) Profile 4,553 Followers 76 Following Follow Send Message About this author: Visit: Gerring Wealth Management

1. Gas Natural: Investigation And Insider-Selling Suggests Trouble Ahead by Dr. Hugh Akston 2. Exchange Income Corp.: Undervalued Canadian Holding Company And 8% Yield by Mike Arnold 3. SAExploration: Buy At A Discount To Crescendo Partners And Joel Greenblatt - 110% Upside by Carbondale Capital 4. Carrizo Oil & Gas: Oil-Focused Portfolio With Assets In All The Right Places by Richard Zeits Dividends & Income 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Retirees: What Is The Best Choice For A Small Income Portfolio? - Part 2 by Bob Wells The All Small-Cap Team (Part 5): 25 Small-Cap Dividend Stocks To Keep Your Eye On In 2014 by Parsimony Investment Research Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.5% Dividend Yield by Ron Hiram Realty Income: The Recent Decline Is A Buying Opportunity by Albert Alfonso Realty Income - Scared Money Never Wins by Brad Thomas

ETFs & Portfolio Strategy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The Best Way To Hedge Your Portfolio With Leveraged ETFs by Fred Piard Habits Of The Mentally Strong by Roger Nusbaum Is 'Frontier' The New 'Emerging'? by Morningstar The Hoax Of VIX = Risk Revisited by Peter F. Way Kill Your Beta To Save Your Alpha by Nicholas Donohoe

Macro View 1. Is The Gold Market Manipulated? Part 1: Introduction And The London Gold Pool by Ben Kramer-Miller 2. 3 Ominous Bear Market Signals by Chris Ciovacco

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2012: Getting Defensive With Utilities, Consumer Staples, Precious ...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/316497-eric-parnell-positions-for-2012-getting-defensive-with-ut...

3. The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner by Sy Harding 4. People's Bank Of China Announces End Of U.S. Treasury Buying by Katchum 5. Gold Long-Term: Nowhere To Go But Down by Nasser Khraishi TOP AUTHORS: The Opinion Leaders TOP USERS: StockTalkers | Instablogs Follow us Follow us Mobile Apps | RSS Feeds | About Us | Contact Us Terms of Use | Privacy | Xignite quote data | 2013 Seeking Alpha

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