AP PSYCH STUDY GUIDE Chapter 1: Thinking Critically With Psychological Science The limits of Intuition and Common Sense

The naked intellect is an extraordinarily inaccurate instrument Madeleine LEngle, 1972 Everyday thinking is limited by after-the-fact sense and the human tendency to be overly confident I. Hindsight Bias Definition- The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome that one would have foreseen it. The term 20/20 hindsight was coined by psychologists Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff (1977). o Example: After 9/11 it seemed obvious that the U.S should have taken advance warning more seriously and airport security should have anticipated a breach in security. Additionally that those in the second tower should have evacuated after the first hit. With 20/20 hindsight, everything seems obvious. Phenomenon is also called: I-Knew-it-all-along phenomenon Errors in our recollections and explanations show why we need psychological research II. Over Confidence Definition- Human tendency to think we know more than we do in reality. Both lead us to overestimate our intuition. We tend to be more confident than correct Once people know something, hindsight makes it seem obvious, so much so, that they become overconfident. o Robert Vallone (1990) looked at students predict at the beginning of the school year certain behaviors they would partake in throughout the school year. On average 84% of students were confident in their self -predictions. Later, when quizzes of their actual behavior were looked at, predictions were only correct 71% of the time. Students that were 100% sure of themselves erred 15% of the time. o Phillip Tetlock (1998) collected experts predictions of political, economic and military situations. After 5 years had elapsed experts were invited back to reflect on their predations. The studies show the predictions were far more confident than correct. Experts who had felt more than 80% confident were right less than 40% of the time. Scientific Attitude I. Critical Thinking Definition- Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions but rather examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions.

Critical thinkers ask questions. Have a critical attitude that produces humility meaning an awareness of our own vulnerability to error and an openness to surprises and new perspectives. Scientific Method Make observations Form theories refine theories in the light of new observations I. Theory Definition- explains through an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts behaviors or events. Theories simplify things By linking facts and bridging them to deeper principles, a theory offers a useful summary. II. Hypotheses Definition- A testable prediction, often implied by a theory. It enables us to test and reject or revise the theory. Predictions give direction to research. Hypotheses specify what results would support the theory and what results would disconfirm it. III. Operational definitions Definition- a statement of the procedures used to define research variables. This allows researchers to check on their biases and allows anyone to replicate their observations. Replication refers to the concept of repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances.

Theories
Lead To Generate or refine

Research and Observations

Hypotheses

Lead To

Research Methods I. The Case Study Definition-An observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles. PROS CONS o Fully depicts clients experience, o Not generalizable input, process, and results o Findings dont necessarily o Powerful means to portray represent all individuals something to outsiders o Time consuming to collect data o Often done to make practical o Represents a depth of information improvements. rather than a breadth of o Allow room for innovation and information research for rare cases o The case could be unique and o Can lead to information that can therefore not represent other lead to a new hypothesis instances o Not beneficial in reaching rigorous conclusions or determining precise relationships (aka not good for cause and effect relationships) Much of our early knowledge about the brain came from case studies of individuals who suffered particular impairment after damage to certain brain regions. Intensive case studies are sometimes very revealing. Case studies can suggest hypotheses for further study. Unrepresentative information can lead to mistaken judgments and false conclusions Often a researcher mentions a finding and someone is sure to offer a contradictory case. Anecdotal cases have a way of overwhelming general truths. The point to remember: Individual cases can suggest fruitful ideas. Whats true of all of us can be glimpsed in any one of us. But to discern the general truths that cover individual cases, we must answer questions with other methods. II. The Survey Definition- A technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of them PROS CONS

o Ability to find the target population o More questions can be asked o Allows the researcher to have a more subjects o Standardization o Ease of administration o Ability to tap the unseen o Sensitivity to subgroup differences

o Prone to error if the population is not diverse o Requires a separate data analysis o Expensive o Samples must be carefully selected to ensure statistical meaning o Relies on the subject to interpret the question o Can be time consuming

III.

o o o o

Wording Effects o Even a subtle change in the order or wording of questions can have major effects. o Sometimes subjects can misinterpret questions if not worded properly. Random Sampling o False consensus effect- The tendency to overestimate others agreement with us is the o Population- The group of people of interest to study. o Random Sample- A sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion. o The point to remember: Before believing survey findings, think critically: Consider the sample. You cannot compensate for an unrepresentative sample by simply adding more people Naturalistic Observation Definition- Observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation. PROS CONS Provides ideas for future research o Not easy to get quantitative data Cheap o Relies on the researcher Subjects act normal in natural interpretation (subjective) setting compared to a lab o Poor method for establishing cause Can provide detailed information and effect relationship about the nature, frequency, and o Observers presence if know, may context of naturally occurring influence behavior behaviors

Can be used with correlation research Correlation and Causation I. Correlation and Causation Definition- A measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how well either factor predicts the other The correlation coefficient is between -1 and 1

II.

If the coefficient is 0 then there is no relationship between the two. The closer the absolute value of the coefficient is to 1, the closer it is to a perfect correlation. If the coefficient is negative, it means the variables are indirectly proportional If the coefficient is positive, it means the variables are directly proportional. Scatterplot- A graphed cluster of dots, each of which represents the values of two variables. The slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation. Statistics can help see what the naked eye misses The point to remember: Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause effect relationship but does not prove causation. Knowing that two events are correlated need not tell us anything about causation. Illusory Correlations Definition-The perception of a relationship where non exists Explains many superstitious beliefs and presumptions.. We are sensitive to dramatic or unusual events, therefore we are especially likely to notice and remember the occurrence of two such events in sequence The point to remember: When we notice random coincidences, we may forget that they are random instead see them as correlated. Thus, we can easily deceive ourselves by seeing what is not there. Arise from our natural eagerness to make sense of our world.

TEST TOPICS: Bacon: (1561- 1626) founder of modern science, fascinated by the human mind and its failings. the human understanding form its peculiar nature easily supposes a greater degree of order and equality in things than it really finds Locke: (1632- 1704) British political philosopher sat down to write a one page essay on our own abilities. The mind at birth is a blank state a white paper on which experience writes. Wundt: measured the time lag between peoples hearing a ball hit a platform and their pressing a telegraph key. Atoms of the mind the fastest and simplest mental processes. First psychological experiment. Titchener: student of Wundt, introduced structuralism. An early school psychology that used observation or examination of one's own mental and emotionalstate, mental processes to explore the elemental structure of the human mind. What were their immediate sensatinos, their images, their feelings? Sometimes we dont know why we feel what we feel and do what we do.

James: The evolved functions of our thoughts and feelings instead of assembling the structure of mind from simple elements. For example: Semming is what the nose does, thinking is what the brain does. Believed in the works of Charles Darwin, thus believed that the senses were the adaptation ( contributed to ancestors survival). He was a functionalist. ( focused on how mental and behavioral processes function) American Philosopher Watson: Dismissed introspection and redefined psychology as the scientific study of observable behavior. Science is rooted in observation. Championed psychology as the science of behavior and demonstrated conditioned responses on a baby. Skinner: Also a behaviorist. Studied how consequences shape behavior. Freud (who was a physician by training): Freud personality theorist and therapist, whose controversial ideas influenced humanitys self understanding. Maslow: Emphasized the importance of current environmental influences on our growth potential and the importance of meeting our needs for love and acceptance. Rogers: Also believed in the importance of meeting our needs for love and acceptance. Study Topics: The past eras of psychological thought, and key ideas associated with them Introspection, and why it's no longer a principal technique of investigation: Empiricism: the view that a knowledge comes from experience via the senses and b science flourishes through observation and experiment. Structuralism: study of ones own mind to explore the elemental structure of the human mind. Functionalism: focused on how mental and behavioral processes function (Adaptation) Humanistic psychology: significant perspective that emphasized the growth potential of healthy people used personalized methods to study personality in hopes of fostering personal growth Cognitive Revolution: supported ideas developed by earlier psychologists such as the importance of considering internal though ways we perceive process and remember information. Treatment of mental disorders. Natural Selection: among the range of inherited trait variations those contributing to reproduction and survival will most likely be passed on to succeeding generations. `

Modern psychological approaches

The 6 modern approaches in psychology include cognitive and behavioral. The six modern approaches in psychology also include humanistic and behavioral. Cross cultural and psychoanalytic also make up the approaches.

Goals of modern psychology describe, explain, predict, and change behavior. In many ways, these goals are similar to the kinds of things you probably do every day as you interact with others. Types of studies, most appropriate uses of each, pros and cons Ethical concerns and guidelines Ethics: 1. Debriefing 2. Informed consent 3. Deception 4. Risk gain 5. traumatic Descriptive statistics, including z scores and how to calculate them x is a raw score to be standardized; is the mean of the population; is the standard deviation of the population

The importance and meaning of the p value, and how psychologists use inferential statistics The reason for calculating an inferential statistic is to get a p value (p = probability). The p value is the probability that the samples are from the same population with regard to the dependent variable (outcome). Usually, the hypothesis we are testing is that the samples (groups) differ on the outcome. The p value is directly related to the null hypothesis. The p value determines whether or not we reject the null hypothesis. We use it to estimate whether or not we think the null hypothesis is true. The p value provides an estimate of how often we would get the obtained result by chance, if in fact the null hypothesis were true.