Population Change over Time 1. The demographic transition model in developed countries a.

The industrial revolution first lowered the death rate with higher standard of living that disproportionately affects the very young (same effect as higher birth rate). b. Second, the birth rate eventually fell with increased motivation for families to limit family size. c. The surge in population in between these two periods added to an explosion in the natural rate of population growth. d. ventually, demographic transition is completed that results in births e!ual to deaths. e. "nly #orth $merica, urope, and ast $sia have moved completely through the demographic transition. %. $pplication of model to developing countries a. &eveloping countries in $sia and 'atin $merica have undergone the population explosion phase and are beginning to slow their natural rate of population growth, but Saharan $frica(s birth rates have not decreased significantly. (Saharan $frican society places cultural and religious emphasizes on ancestry and descent with children considered as economic assets to continue the family lineage.) b. )ut, even with lower fertility rates absolute population size will continue to grow because of the large size of the base population. c. *n the next %+ years almost all of the increase in world population will occur in developing countries. ,. -ertility and mortality a. $ higher survival rate of infants results in more adults b. .ore wor/ing, healthy adults adds to labor productivity

c.

ventually, ta/ing care of retirees becomes an increasing problem with greater life spans.

0. The demographic e!uation a. 1opulation at time % 2 population at time 1 3 births 4 deaths 3 in5migration less out5migration b. #et in5migration adds even more to overall population because of increased children of immigrants c. *n developed economies net migration becomes the most important determinant of population growth. +. 6auses of migration a. .ost people move for economic reasons, although it may be voluntary or involuntary ($frican slave trade in this country, the deportation of )ritish convicts to the 7.S. and $ustralia,) b. conomic motives are sometimes divided into 8push9 and 8pull9 factors. c. 1ush factors are to leave places of economic hardship d. 1ull factors are to see/ areas of economic opportunity :. The economics of voluntary migration
Migration and Comparative Advantage

a. 6lassical migration theory based on wage differentials between countries (say 7.S. versus .exico) b. 'abor migration narrow wage differentials sub;ect to relocation and migration costs that are capitalized over the remaining wor/ life of the mover. 'ong distance moves are less li/ely than shorter distance moves. c. The lac/ of convergence is due to imperfect /nowledge, cultural differences, and institutional barriers, such as immigration laws. d. *ncreased urbanization of a destination region is expected to increase its attractiveness for potential

migration, reducing uncertainty and increasing the probability of a 8beaten path9 by earlier immigrants. <. 6onse!uences of .igration a. .igrants tend to be younger, more ambitious, and better educated than the population of their origin and fre!uently the population of their destination. b. 6onflict and ability to ad;ust to new region is greater for poor migrants than for the relatively well educated. c. =uest wor/ers generally contribute enormously to the economy in which they locate. d. .igration patterns are generally divided into subcategories> i. *nternal (origin within the country) or external (origin outside the country) ii. $mong externals> inter or intra continental iii. $mong internal> interregional, rural5urban, or inter5metropolitan. ?. Trends in .igration a. 1rior to the =reat &epression intercontinental migration of uropeans to the 7.S. dominated. b. Since @@** the tide of migrants is overwhelmingly from developing to developed countries. c. The era of heavy intercontinental migration is over. d. *n the highly urbanized 7.S. inter5metropolitan migration is increasingly important. Population Structure 1. The age5sex structure affects the labor force, demand for education facilities, retirement and medical systems, etc. %. 1opulation pyramids graphically represent the structure among +5year age groups from the youngest to the oldest group.

6ountry population pyramids> http>AAwww.census.govAftpApubAipcAwwwAidbpyr.html 0. The can be used to forecast population based on cohort5 survival method. +. &eveloping countries have a s!uat, triangular profile. :. The 7.S. has slimmer profile but with a bulge at the waist in 1BBC due to the baby boom after @@**. %CCC pyramid reflects children of baby boomers. http>AAwww.ac.wwu.eduADstephanA$nimationApyramid.html <. Eero (or negative) population growth with immigration restrictions over a long period results in a slim profile with a potential labor shortage.
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Demographic Characteristics 1. Fuman capital has characteristics that are either achieved (education, occupation, etc.) or ascribed (race, sex, etc.) %. ducation is the most important determinant of demographic trends, as it affects fertility, mortality, and migration. ,. 'abor force participation is increasing in the tertiary sector in the 7.S. economy at the expense of primary activities, particularly agriculture. 0. 1er capita income is the most familiar index of economic development that reflects residents( well5being and capacity to consume. Economic Growth and Development 1. The three5corned debate over population growth and development centers on (a) the need for population by nationalists, (b) the .arxist view that population growth per se does not hamper economic development, but rather un;ust social and economic institution, and (c) the neo5.althusians that population growth can wipe out economic gains.

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conomic forces include the need for population to create economies of scale that increase efficiency. Fowever, excessive population growth will exhaust resources and reduce living standards. ,. The carrying capacity, or population size that can be maintained indefinitely, depends on level of living chosen by the country. 0. .odern growth theory emphasizes the roles of capital formation and new technology to achieve higher carrying capacity for an economy. +. The age structure of population affects the size of the labor force and the saving rate necessary for investment. Demographic Forecasting at the Firm and City Level 1. -irms also have a life spanGbirth, growth, maturity, die, and migrate. %. "rganization ecology or firmography focuses on the advantages of geographic isolation (avoiding competition) versus proximity (agglomeration economies) in the location and survival of a business firm. ,. -irms use target mar/eting base on =*S to profile mar/et segments for a particular business. ( xamples in pp. ?<5B1) 0. The demographics of the firm are being affected by two ma;or factorsGtechnology and generation. a. Technology is restructuring or reengineering the wor/place environment to create the flexible economy. b. =enerational is the role of baby boomers on consumer spending, labor productivity, and political power. +. 6orporations are no longer responsible for a wor/er(s life, career, and retirement, but responsibility is shifted to the individual. :. Stable, hierarchical families are giving way to mobile, multi5 career, fast changing, flexible families in much the same way in order to achieve in the ;ob mar/et.

<. -irms and households are pro;ected to increasingly locate in excerbs proximate to larger metropolitan areas if they are to reduce the cost of living and increase the !uality of life. ?. 6ustomization and flexibility to individual(s demands and needs will be /eys to a companies success re!uiring creativity in products and services. Smaller, entrepreneurial firms will create more ;obs than larger firms. B. The customizedAflexible economy is the rough opposite of the standardized economy of the past. *ndividual(s wor/ is small, self5managing teams focused on a particular need or customer problem. 'arge inventory bloats are reduced by faster response to customers in niche mar/ets ( xample of &ell 6omputer 6orporation) Demographics for City Planning 1. 6ities need to begin with a regional growth forecast (H=-) based on =*S to determine level and location of population, the need and location of schools, hospitals, fire and police protection, and sewage and water treatment plants, zoning for land uses, transportation plans, pro;ected housing needs, pro;ected energy demands, air !uality, etc. %. 1lanning see/s to coordinate regional goals and policies with general plan I development patterns sub;ect to intergovernmental review procedures.
Demographic Techniques