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Topline Findings
■ The overall sentiment index has increased by eight points over last quarter, but still reflects extremely weak
market conditions.
— The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index rose to 491 from a reading of 41 in April 2009.
■ A significant majority of respondents believe current conditions are worse than one year ago.
■ Respondents report a significant decline in asset values and have little hope for near-term improvement.
■ Respondents indicate that capital markets have retreated from the brink of historic collapse, however, they
are still extraordinarily fragile.
1
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index is measured on a scale of 1–100. It is the average of The Real Estate Roundtable
Future Index and The Real Estate Roundtable Current Index. To register an Index of 100, all respondents would have to answer
that they believe conditions are “much better” today than one year ago and will be “much better” one year from now.
“There’s the story... and then the real story. The mood has improved, but fundamentals have not.”
“Things will get worse before they get better. The real estate business lags the economy by two or three quarters.
I think it’s at least 9-12 months before we see something of a recovery.”
“The operating market will be difficult for some time, but we’re closer to the end than we were six months ago.”
“I felt until recently like we’re running in quicksand, but we’re not doing that anymore. The worst is over... but
that doesn’t mean it’s good.”
“Conditions are still bad, but at least the pace of decline has slowed.”
Exhibit 1
The Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index
Future 63 62
Conditions 60
58 58
49 49
46
Overall 43
41
38
36
33
28 28
Current
Conditions 21
17 18
Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09
“The property market stinks and it continues to get worse. We were in the same place in 1990.”
“Nothing will free up this year because the capital markets will not free up.”
“Only when jobs start to recover will we see REIT fundamentals follow suit.”
Exhibit 2
Perspectives on Real Estate Market Conditions
% of respondents
Much worse Somewhat worse About the same Somewhat better Much better
Today vs. One Year Ago One Year From Now vs. Today
3
100 100 6 3
12 14
24
44 75
75 20
23
34
50 50
39 58
19 53
25 25
7 20
10 3 6 5
0 0
April ’09 July ’09 April ’09 July ’09
3
“Asset prices have declined, perhaps 20-30%, but there’s not enough transactions to really tell how much they’ve
declined. It’s impossible to underwrite today.”
“Owners don’t want to be distressed sellers, so it will fall to the banks to fill that role.”
“The bid/ask spread will close in the next year. Sellers will have to begin to drop their prices and accept buyer offers.”
Exhibit 3
Real Estate Asset Values
% of respondents
Much lower Somewhat lower About the same Somewhat higher Much higher
Today vs. One Year Ago One Year From Now vs. Today
100 100
9 9
75 75 31
59 37
69
50 50
36
36
25 34 25
30
24
4 18
1 3
0 0
April ’09 July ’09 April ’09 July ’09
4 3
1
“The banks aren’t making any new loans. They’re pretending that the extensions that they’re issuing (instead of
foreclosing) are new lending to make the government think they’re loaning money.”
“There’s a fair amount of equity, though it’s mostly on the sidelines. The debt side is a more serious issue. The
banks are full up on commercial real estate debt and there’s no one else who can step into the void.”
“We’ve been able to access the common equity market and that has some life. The preferred equity market is
dead. Unsecured debt is dead. Secured is open, you may not like the pricing, but it’s open.”
“Four to five months ago, there wasn’t a penny available for anything. Now, the wheels are starting to move.”
Exhibit 4
Availability of Capital
% of respondents
Much worse Somewhat worse About the same Somewhat better Much better
50 50 50 50
30
62 63
25 58
29 60
25 25 25 25
17 17
16
9
10 12
4 4 7 5 6
0 0 0 0
Apr ’09 Jul ’09 Apr ’09 Jul ’09 Apr ’09 Jul ’09 Apr ’09 Jul ’09
1
2
Apr ’09
Apr ’09
Apr ’09
Apr ’09
Jul ’09
Jul ’09
Jul ’09
Jul ’09
American Hotel & Lodging Association Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. Home Properties Inc.
Joseph A. McInerney John C. Cushman, III Edward J. Pettinella
BlackRock, Inc. DePaul University – Real Estate Center Inland Western Retail Real Estate Trust
Ronald E. Zuzack Susanne E. Cannon Michael J. O’Hanlon
Boston Properties, Inc. Disney Vacation Club Interstate Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
Edward H. Linde Lawrence Smith Thomas F. Hewitt
Boykin Management Co. EastGroup Properties, Inc. Johnson Capital Group, Inc.
Robert W. Boykin David H. Hoster, II Guy K. Johnson
Building Owners & Managers FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated Julian LeCraw & Co.
Association Intl. Thomas J. Corcoran Michael Tompkins
Henry H. Chamberlain
First Centrum, LLC Kimpton Hotel & Restaurant Group, LLC
Capital Trust, Inc. Mark L. Weshinskey Michael Depatie
Stephen D. Plavin
Forum Partners Investment Lane Construction
CB Richard Ellis Management LLC Robert Alger
Jim Peck Caroline S. McBride
LaSalle Investment Management
Centro Properties Group Green Courte Partners, LLC Jeff Jacobson
Glenn J. Rufrano Randall K. Rowe
Lazard
Champion Partners, Ltd. Greenberg Traurig, LLP Robert C. Larson
Jeffrey L. Swope Robert J. Ivanhoe Matthew J. Lustig
Citigroup, Inc. Gunn Capital Ventures LLC Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises, Inc.
Thomas M. Flexner Thomas P. MacManus Kevin J. Brown
Classic Residence by Hyatt Health Care REIT, Inc. Liberty Property Trust
Randal J. Richardson George L. Chapman William P. Hankowsky
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