Political Affiliation Of Swing States

Giuseppe Bovenzi

Political Science 101 Professor Prokopoych October 21, 2012

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One of the most influential factors of who wins a Presidential election is swing states. Swing states are states that do not identify with a political party, because of this, Democrats and Republicans try to sway the votes in their way in order to win the election. This characteristic is unique as most of the United States is heavily affiliated with a political party. The upcoming 2012 election is one of the closest and aggressive elections in recent history; both sides are trying to slander the opposite candidate with negative ads and personal attacks. For many years the most important states have been Ohio and Florida, both are swing states and both parties are very close in the polls. No Republican candidate has ever won a presidential election without Ohio1. Ohio and Florida are part of a grouping called the Big Three this is similar to the big three automakers, the big three of states are Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. These states have been slammed by airtime by the candidates a solidification of their importance2. These states are important because they determine who becomes president. Their electoral votes are large and their voting tendencies make them unpredictable. Learning about the history and migration pattern of these states and their history may serve as an introduction to why Ohio and Florida are swing states. Why are states such as Ohio and Florida is are not solidly attached to a political party? The answer lies in those who have migrated to these states as well as the rise of urbanization and big business. Ohio, The Buckeye State Ohios political history has a very accurate record at predicting the president of the United States. Ohio has voted for Obama in 2008, Bush for 2004 and 2000, and Clinton in the

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1990s, all of the candidates that received Ohios vote won the election. These accurate results continue until the 1960s where Kennedy won even though Ohio voted for the other candidate3. Because of a population so diverse, the state cannot dictate to its people whom to vote. Thus, results have also become diverse that even today; Ohio remains to be a swing state4. As Ohio became more diverse it is no surprise that Ohio has had a share of discrimination of African Americans, namely, the Ku Klux Klan. The Ku Klux Klan is a group of white supremacists that would taunt and murder those who arent Anglo-Saxon Protestants, this mainly occurred in the early to mid-1900s. The Ku Klux Klan occurred because many African Americans have moved to Ohio settling in towns such as Akron, Columbus, Cleveland, and Youngstown5.This migration was called The Great Migration. Many of these African Americans moved to Ohio to escape racial discrimination, unfortunately, it did follow them. But, after many years of injustice, and a Civil Rights Movement, they were finally able to vote without fear of being lynched. Needless to say, the majority of African Americans are Democrats as are most minorities. Even though the Great Migration happened in the early 1900s the political effects of African Americans was not felt until the 1960s when the Civil Rights Act was enacted6. This would support the electoral map that shows Ohio had become important politically in the 1960s after the election of Kennedy. Previous to the migration of many African Americans, Ohio was arguably solidly Republican. The increase of minorities has increased the amount of Democrats, now the

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Republican and Democratic Party affiliation within Ohio is very close. In fact, a recent Gallup poll Ohioans that affiliate themselves as Democrats are only ahead by the Republicans by 2%7. Ohio used to be primarily an agricultural state because early in Ohios history the government used to pay people with land to move out west and colonize. This incentive worked and many people moved out west in order to make a living. This changed in the late nineteenth century when many American industries had enormous growth. This industrial revolution created a rise of big business and urbanization. Urbanization is the movement of people to the city; this occurred because so many job opportunities opened in the city due to the many factories that were waiting for workers. Many minorities, immigrants, and farmers moved to the city. Many farmers stopped their line of work in favor of working in factories because it was more cost effective than trying to pay for new modern farm equipment and compete with larger farms. Cities grew, immigrants came, and eventually so did Progressive political beliefs. Progressives believed that the governments role was to support its citizens and thus should come more involved with their personal life. Progressives mainly wanted improvement in working conditions and salaries8. These beliefs led to the birth of labor unions and regulation in the workplace. Labor Unions fought for the workers rights and safety. They fought for minimum wage, child labor laws, and work place safety. Progressives eventually assimilated into the Democratic Party. These factors have changed Ohio from a solid Republican state in its conception to a state where affiliation between Democrats and Republicans are nearly equal. As

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with all states many people are moving into Ohio, but there are also those who are moving out of Ohio, many of these people moved to Florida9. Florida, The Sunshine State Florida used to be a Republican stronghold in the 1980s but recently, many people that migrated to Florida shifted it to a battleground state. A great example of the transformation from Republican to Democrat is Broward County. Broward Countys biggest city is Fort Lauderdale and is located below West Palm Beach and above Miami. The transformation of Broward County from solid Republican to Democrat is mainly because of the migration of many retired persons from New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, these people are primarily retired public sector employees using their comfy government pension to migrate to the beautiful Sun Belt10. There has also been an influx of immigrants from the Caribbean and South America in recent years. These immigrants usually are Democrats due to their position on government involvement and immigration. But, the largest group of immigrants entering Florida is Cubans. These Cubans are mostly Republican, this helps balance the influx of Democrats in the Sunshine State making Florida a swing states. The reason Cubans are partial to Republicans is probably because the Cubans that leave their county usually leave because they are against the communist regime in Cuba. Republicans have a strong anti-communist belief that resonates with Cubans. Also, there is belief that since the Bay of Pigs invasion failed the Cubans lost faith in Democratic presidents11. This invasion was supposed to assistant in the overthrow the communist regime.

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This never came to fruition and the communist regime still stands today. A Florida Senator, Marco Rubio, is one of the most important figures in the Republican Party and was considered a nominee for Vice President, the Presidential candidate Mitt Romney ultimately picked Paul Ryan, however, Marco Rubio and his story helps attract Hispanics, especially Cubans. This is because Marco Rubios parents left Cuba in the 1950s in order to leave Castros communist government. His story helps rally the Hispanic vote and create an even tighter race this year than those in the past. In the last election Hispanics greatly chose Obama over McCain, especially in Florida. This year there is a relatively small lead for Obama the current polls are 51% to 44%12. This is alarming for Obama who had a large lead earlier in the year and in the last election. Nonetheless, Florida and its 29 electoral votes make this state one of the most treasured and hottest battleground states. The electoral map shows only ten swing these states have an interesting history that makes these swing states unique. Since these swing states will decide the presidential election what happened in their history to make these states unique? The answer lies in those who have migrated to these states as well as the rise of urbanization and big business. Ohio used to be a solid Republican state priding itself in agriculture. Times have changed and since then African Americans who are primarily Democrats began migrating into Ohio. Big business and urbanization gave way to the new style of living. This style of living gave popularity to the Progressives whom wanted better working conditions and rights for workers. These Progressives eventually assimilated into the Democratic Party creating the modern swing state of Ohio. Florida is a unique state as it combines the old rural cowboy beliefs of North Florida with the

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modern urban South Florida. The beautiful climate of Florida made this state a prime spot for retirees, many of these retirees used to live in the northern Democratic states such as New York and New Jersey. Most of these seniors are former public sector employees living on their Government pension, these retirees tend to vote Democrat. Many immigrants from the Caribbean and South America have moved into Florida and their beliefs tend to line up with the Democratic party as well. However, there is one exception and these are Cubans who have left Cuba due to their rejection of the Communist government. These Cubans dramatically vote Republican and creates an even split between Democrats and Republicans making Florida a swing state. These swing states are just some examples on how immigration and migration has dramatically affected a states political climate, both of these states used to be Republican but with outside influence they are now equally split and desired by the candidates. Notes 1. Sarah Stemen, Ohio to play key role in presidential election, The Lantern, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.thelantern.com/campus/ohio-to-play-key-role-in presidentialelection-1.2737704#.UISFu8VX04N 2. Jonathan Martin, 3 states that may decide the election, Politico, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82391.html 3. Losing a State, Winning the Election, 270 To Win, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.270towin.com/blog/trivia/losing-a-state-winning-the-election 4. Plaza, Why is Ohio a swing state?, Knows Why, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.knowswhy.com/why-is-ohio-a-swing-state/ 5. Great Migration, Ohio History Central, accessed October 20, 2012 http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/entry.php?rec=502 6. Gillette, William. The Right to Vote: Politics and the Passage of the Fifteenth Amendment. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1969 7. Jeffrey M. Jones, D.C., Hawaii Most Democratic, Utah Most Republican State in 11, Gallup, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-DemocraticUtah-Republican-State.aspx-

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8. Urbanization, Ohio History Central, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/entry.php?rec=1517 9. Ohio-Migration, City Data, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.citydata.com/states/Ohio-Migration.html 10. E.J. Dionne Jr., Why Florida Has Become A Swing State, San Francisco Chronicle, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/Why-Florida-Has-Become-ASwing-State-2734555.php11. Carlos Miller, Why Cuban Americans Vote Republican, Hispanic News, accessed October 21, 2012, http://www.hispanic.cc/why_cubans_vote_republican.htm 12. Marc Caputo and Patricia Mazzei, Poll: Obama holds big lead over Romney among Hispanic voters nationwide; margin much smaller in Florida, Miami Herald, accessed October 21, 2012, http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/14/3049990/poll-president-barack-obamaholds.html

Works Cited

Sarah Stemen, Ohio to play key role in presidential election, The Lantern, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.thelantern.com/campus/ohio-to-play-key-role-in presidential -election-1.2737704#.UISFu8VX04N Jonathan Martin, 3 states that may decide the election, Politico, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82391.html Losing a State, Winning the Election, 270 To Win, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.270towin.com/blog/trivia/losing-a-state-winning-the-election Plaza, Why is Ohio a swing state?, Knows Why, accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.knowswhy.com/why-is-ohio-a-swing-state/ Great Migration, Ohio History Central, accessed October 20, 2012 http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/entry.php?rec=502 Gillette, William. The Right to Vote: Politics and the Passage of the Fifteenth Amendment. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1969

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Jeffrey M. Jones, D.C., Hawaii Most Democratic, Utah Most Republican State in 11, Gallup, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic -Utah-Republican-State.aspxUrbanization, Ohio History Central, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/entry.php?rec=1517 Ohio-Migration, City Data, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.city-data.com/states/Ohio -Migration.html E.J. Dionne Jr., Why Florida Has Become A Swing State, San Francisco Chronicle, accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/Why-Florida-Has-Become-A -Swing-State-2734555.phpCarlos Miller, Why Cuban Americans Vote Republican, Hispanic News, accessed October 21, 2012, http://www.hispanic.cc/why_cubans_vote_republican.htm Marc Caputo and Patricia Mazzei, Poll: Obama holds big lead over Romney among Hispanic voters nationwide; margin much smaller in Florida, Miami Herald, accessed October 21, 2012, http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/14/3049990/poll-president-barack -obama-holds.html