The World System After 1945 ZNet, May 01, 2011 By Immanuel Wallerstein Source: Eurozine Text of a talk

given at a conference in Vienna, October 2 , 2010 ! "ave to #tart $y #tory by outlining %"at ! con#i&er to be t"e context of your &i#cu##ion' (ou #ay you %ant to look at )avant*gar&e# fro$ t"e &ecline of $o&erni#$ to t"e ri#e of globalization, 1+,-*1+.-)' !t i# not clear to $e %"et"er t"e#e &ate# %ere c"o#en becau#e of turning /oint# in t"e art %orl& or turning /oint# in t"e %orl& /olitical arena 0 /er"a/# bot"' (our backgroun& text lay# e$/"a#i# on t"e large nu$ber of aut"oritarian regi$e# t"at exi#te& in variou# /art# of t"e %orl& at t"e beginning of t"at /erio& an& /re#u$ably fe%er to%ar&# t"e en&' (ou talk about t"e ri#e of globalization, /re#u$ably to%ar&# t"e en& of t"at /erio&' T"e #"ift you %ant to &i#cu## i# very real, but let $e offer you a #lig"tly &ifferent #et of te$/oral cutting*/oint# to illu$inate t"i# #tory 0 1+1,, 1+,-, 1+-., 1+ +*1+.0, 1+.+*1++1, 2001*2002, 200.*2010' 1+1,: T"i# %a# of cour#e t"e en& of t"e Secon& 3orl& 3ar' More i$/ortant, it %a# t"e en& of an inten#e 20*year*long #truggle bet%een t"e 4nite& State# an& 5er$any in t"eir effort#, begun in t"e 1. 0#, to #uccee& 5reat Britain a# t"e "ege$onic /o%er of t"e %orl&*#y#te$' T"e 4nite& State# %a# t"e triu$/"ant one' !t %a# t"e only $a6or in&u#trial /o%er to e$erge in 1+1, %it" it# infra#tructure un#cat"e&' !t "a& beco$e t"e $o#t efficient /ro&ucer in t"e %orl&* #y#te$ an& &o$inate& t"e %orl& $arket' 7ll of Eura#ia 0 not only t"e &efeate& 7xi# /o%er# but t"e victor# a# %ell 0 %ere #truggling to recon#truct t"e$#elve#' T"e 4nite& State# %a# able t"erefore to a##ert it# "ege$onic /o#ition an& i$/o#e a ne% %orl& or&er favorable to it# intere#t#' !t# only con#traint %a# t"e re$aining $ilitary #trengt" of t"e Soviet 4nion, %"o#e ar$y %a# occu/ying virtually t"e %"ole of ea#t*central Euro/e' To ratify it# "ege$onic /o#ition, t"e 4nite& State# felt it nece##ary to enter into an arrange$ent %it" t"e Soviet 4nion, one %e "ave co$e to &e#ignate $eta/"orically a# (alta' T"i# arrange$ent "a& t"ree /art#' 8ir#t an& $o#t i$/ortant, t"e %orl& %a# &ivi&e& into t%o #/"ere# of influence 0 a Soviet zone 9t"e t"ir& of t"e %orl& running fro$ t"e O&er*:ei##e line in 5er$any to t"e 2.t" /arallel in ;orea< an& an 7$erican zone 9t"e ot"er t%o*t"ir&# of t"e %orl&<' Bot" #i&e# agree& tacitly not to atte$/t to u#e force to c"ange t"e#e boun&arie#' T"ere %ere $any ten#e $o$ent# in t"eir relation# &uring t"e follo%ing year#, but t"e outco$e of eac" &ra$atic u/ri#ing or =ua#i*confrontation %a# in eac" ca#e a return to t"e #tatu# =uo ante' T"i# agree$ent re$aine& in fact inviolate until 1+.+' Secon&, eac" #i&e agree& to re$ain largely in#ulate& econo$ically' T"e 4nite& State# %oul& "el/ to recon#truct 3e#tern Euro/e an& >a/an 0 bot" to en#ure t"eir role a# fait"ful an& #ubor&inate allie# an& to /rovi&e $arket# for t"e "y/er*efficient 7$erican in&u#trie#' T"e Soviet zone %oul& be on it# o%n econo$ically' T"i# &ual /rotectioni#$ "el& u/ le## long, la#ting only to t"e late 1+-0#' T"ir&, t"e t%o #i&e# %ere to engage in a very lou& r"etorical %ar kno%n a# t"e )?ol& 3ar)' T"e $utual &enunciation# &i& not c"ange, %ere not inten&e& to c"ange, t"e geo/olitical &ivi#ion but rat"er #erve& to /er$it eac" #i&e to control /olitically it# o%n zone an& to en#ure t"at fully*loyal govern$ent# re$aine& or %ere in#talle& in /o%er' T"i# %a# t"e #tructural un&er/inning to t"e /erva#ive reality of aut"oritarian regi$e# in ea#tern an& #out"ern Euro/e a# %ell a# in @atin 7$erica, Turkey, !ran, Tai%an, Sout" ;orea, an& el#e%"ere' T"e#e regi$e# %oul& run into trouble eventually, t"e con#e=uence not of c"ange& vie%# by 7$erican an& Soviet aut"oritie# but rat"er of 1

#"ift# t"e t%o &i& not control in t"e %i&er geo/olitical %orl&' T"e /roble$ for bot" t"e 4nite& State# an& t"e Soviet 4nion %a# t"at t"eir tacit &eal #erve& bot" of t"e$ %ell, but %a# a very con#ervative con#traint on t"e c"ange# #o $uc" of t"e re#t of t"e %orl& ar&ently %ante&' 3it" t"e &eat" of Stalin, t"e i&eological #oli&ity of t"e Soviet bloc began to ero&e' T"e year 1+,- $arke& t%o $a6or turning*/oint#' T"ere %a# fir#t of all t"e fa$ou# AAt" ?ongre## of t"e ?o$$uni#t Barty of t"e Soviet 4nion an& t"e )#ecret) re/ort :ikita ;"ru#"c"ev &elivere& t"ere' T"e re/ort &i& not re$ain #ecret very long' ;"ru#"c"ev, #/eaking e##entially on be"alf of t"e Soviet Nomenklatura, broug"t t"e en&le## /urge# to an en&, t"ereby offering a $ore #table environ$ent for t"e live# an& t"e fortune# of t"i# Nomenklatura' To &o t"i#, "e "a& to ex/o#e t"e Stalini#t $yt"ology' Many of t"e fait"ful t"oug"t of t"i# talk not a# )fa$ou#) but a# )infa$ou#') T"e attack on Stalin, a# t"e fait"ful feare&, un&er$ine&, an& eventually un&i&, t"e %orl&%i&e i&eological control by t"e Soviet "ierarc"y over bot" t"e #atellite countrie# an& t"e #atellite /artie# every%"ere' One i$$e&iate con#e=uence %a# t"e t%o u/ri#ing# in Ea#tern Euro/e 0 in Cungary an& Bolan&' 3"ile bot" %ere re/re##e&, in t"e Cungarian ca#e by t"e u#e of Soviet troo/#, t"e un#to//able /roce## of &e*#atellization "a& no% begun' Virtually at t"e #a$e ti$e, !#rael, 5reat Britain, an& 8rance inva&e& Egy/t, inten&ing to /uni#" :a##er for t"e link# "e %a# e#tabli#"ing %it" t"e Soviet 4nion' T"e 4nite& State# %a# no $ore rea&y to tolerate t"i# unilateral action on t"eir /art t"an t"e Soviet 4nion %a# rea&y to tolerate atte$/t# by Bolan& an& Cungary to engage in autono$ou# /olitical activity' T"e 4nite& State# %a# &oubly &i#$aye& 0 becau#e it# allie# 9an& $o#t /articularly 5reat Britain< &are& to act autono$ou#ly, an& becau#e t"e#e action# interfere& %it" it# o%n evolving /olicy of courting govern$ent# in t"e #o*calle& T"ir& 3orl&, /articularly t"at of :a##er' So t"e 4nite& State# in effect or&ere& t"e t"ree /o%er# to %it"&ra% t"eir troo/#, %"ic" t"ey &i&' 7ll t"e $ain actor# &re% &ifferent conclu#ion# fro$ t"i# confrontation' T"e outco$e "o%ever %a# once again tran#for$ing' T"e 4nite& State# %oul& "encefort" beco$e an ever $ore &irect actor in t"e Mi&&le Ea#t, #eeking to control everyt"ing an& everyone, an& in t"e long run &i#covering in t"i# region t"e li$it# of t"e ca/acitie# of a "ege$onic /o%er' T"e 1+-0# #a% t"e on#et of a cree/ing geo/olitical &ecline for bot" t"e 4nite& State# an& it# collu#ive /artner, t"e Soviet 4nion' T"ey bot" initially reacte& by ne% kin&# of re/re##ion' T"i# %oul& "o%ever not really %ork in t"e $i&&le*run' T"e %orl&*revolution of 1+-. %a# one outco$e, an& turne& out to be &eva#tating for bot" of t"e$' T"e i&eological &ecline of t"e Soviet 4nion %a# $arke& by an ever*e#calating #tretc"ing of t"e inter/retation of Marxi#$' !n %e#tern Euro/e, t"e t"ree $o#t /o%erful ?o$$uni#t /artie# 0 in 8rance, !taly an& S/ain 0 entere& into a /at" of /o#t*Stalini#t re&efinition, %"ic" %oul& cul$inate a &eca&e later in t"e conce/t of Euroco$$uni#$' T"i# /at" "a& t"e tri/le con#e=uence of &etac"ing t"e#e /artie# fro$ Soviet controlD )#ocial*&e$ocratizing) t"eir /latfor$#D an& &e#/ite bot" of t"e#e, or $ore likely becau#e of bot" of t"e#e, &eclining real electoral #trengt"' :or %a# t"i# all' T"e 1+-0# %a# t"e $o$ent of t"e e$ergence of cultural loo#ening of t"e Soviet #y#te$ it#elf' T"e $o#t vi#ible a#/ect of t"i# %a# t"e /ublic e$ergence of Sak"arov, Solz"enit#yn an& ever $ore )&i##i&ent#)' More ob#curely but =uite i$/ortantly, an intra*?o$$uni#t &ebate %a# launc"e& in Cungary an& %e#tern Euro/e on t"e conce/t of t"e )7#iatic $o&e of /ro&uction) an& t"i# le& eventually to $aking /o##ible a return bot" to actually rea&ing Marx an& to a $uc" %i&er &i#cu##ion of MarxE# i&ea# le## con#traine& by official &octrine' 2

T"e ?"ine#e ?o$$uni#t Barty u#e& t"i# $o$ent to e#tabli#" it# total autono$y fro$ t"e ?BS4 0 not only /olitically but i&eologically 0 an& to e#tabli#" it#elf a# a ne% %orl& /ole of geo/olitical /o%er' T"e #o*calle& )cultural revolution) not only create& fun&a$ental #ocial u/"eaval %it"in ?"ina it#elf but "a& an enor$ou# i$/act on all left $ove$ent# el#e%"ere in t"e %orl&' 7n&, of cour#e, t"e ?zec"o#lovak# atte$/te& to e#tabli#" )#ociali#$ %it" a "u$an face)' T"i# le& to t"e inva#ion by Soviet an& ot"er troo/#' T"e inva#ion %a# 6u#tifie& by t"e #o*calle& Brez"nev &octrine, %"ic" &i& re#tore Soviet aut"ority but turne& out to be #elf*&efeating' !t bot" /er$itte& t"e /olitical #tagnation of t"e Brez"nev year# in t"e Soviet 4nion an& it fe&, rat"er t"an #tifle&, t"e t"ru#t for &e*#atellization' T"e /olitical follie# of t"e Soviet lea&er#"i/ at t"i# ti$e are %i&ely &i#cu##e& to&ay' 3e ten& to notice le## t"e /arallel follie# of t"e 4S /olitical lea&er#"i/' !n t"e 1+-0#, t"e #oli&ity of anti* ?o$$uni#t i&eology began to co$e into =ue#tion in t"e zone# t"at t"e 4nite& State# controlle&' 7 left*of*centre /arty %a# gaining #trengt" in 5reece' 8alangi#$ %a# no longer un=ue#tione& in 8rancoE# S/ain' SalazarE# &eat" in Bortugal reo/ene& =ue#tion# about t"e regi$e' !n variou# @atin 7$erican countrie#, left or left*of*centre $ove$ent# an& /artie# #ee$e& to be gaining #trengt" a# %ell' 7$ericaE# ver#ion of t"e Brez"nev &octrine ca$e into /lay 0 t"e ?olonelE# cou/ in 5reece, 8rancoE# cla$/ing*&o%n of even $o&erate &i##i&ent# in "i# la#t &ay#, $ilitary cou/# in Brazil an& ?"ile, t"e inten#ification of t"e %ar in Vietna$, t"e ou#ter of Si"anouk in ?a$bo&ia' >u#t a# Brez"nevE# re/re##ion %orke& in t"e #"ort run but bre& it# o%n un&oing, #o &i& 7$erican re/re##ive t"ru#t# in t"e late 1+-0# an& early 1+ 0#' Of cour#e %"at "urt t"e 4nite& State# t"e $o#t %a# it# inability to %in it# %ar in Vietna$' T"e Vietna$ %ar not only le& to enor$ou# internal tur$oil, but %a# &raining 0 econo$ically an& geo/olitically' !t le& to t"e $oral an& /olitical fia#co of 3atergate, :ixonE# fall fro$ office, an& let u# not forget t"e ex/o#ure by t"e ?"urc" ?o$$ittee of t"e 4S Senate of t"e nefariou# &oing# of t"e ?!7' T"e key turning*/oint %a# t"e %orl&*revolution of 1+-., %"ic" /ulle& all t"e#e /iece# toget"er' 8ir#t of all, it #"oul& be un&erline& t"at t"i# %a# a world revolution, in t"e ele$entary #en#e t"at bet%een 1+-- an& 1+ 0, u/ri#ing# of variou# kin&# occurre& in all t"e t"ree &ifferent geo/olitical arena# t"en exi#ting in t"e %orl&*#y#te$ 0 t"e /an*Euro/ean %orl&, t"e #o*calle& #ociali#t bloc, an& t"e #o*calle& T"ir& 3orl&' Every national an& local occurrence "a& to be #ure it# o%n /articular #tory an& ex/lanation' But t"ere %ere t%o un&erlying t"e$e# t"at %ere co$$on to all t"e event# in all t"ree zone#, an& it i# t"e#e co$$onalitie# t"at are relevant to our &i#cu##ion "ere' One %a# t"at every%"ere t"e /rote#tor# %ere &enouncing t"e $i#&ee&# of 4S "ege$ony an& t"e fact t"at t"e Soviet 4nion %a# in fact collu#ive in t"e#e $i#&ee&# a# a re#ult of t"e un%ritten (alta accor&#' 7fter 1+-., neit"er t"e 4nite& State# nor t"e Soviet 4nion %oul& ever be able to regain t"e un=ue#tioning fi&elity of t"eir /re#u$e& allie# or t"e un=ue#tioning belief in t"e brig"t future# eac" %a# guaranteeing to everyone' T"e #econ& co$$onality %a#, if anyt"ing, $ore i$/ortant' T"e /rote#tor# every%"ere calle& into =ue#tion not $erely t"e governing &octrine# of t"e ?ol& 3ar but t"e "one#ty, relevance, an& real ob6ective# of t"e tra&itional anti*#y#te$ic $ove$ent# t"at "a& in#/ire& an& fra$e& /o/ular #truggle# for at lea#t a century' T"e t"ree varietie# of t"e Ol& @eft 0 t"e ?o$$uni#t /artie#, t"e Social*Fe$ocratic /artie#, an& t"e 3

national liberation $ove$ent# 0 %ere tarre& by t"e /rote#tor# a# failure#' T"ey "a& co$e to /o%er in $o#t #tate# by t"at ti$e, an& t"ey "a& not at all c"ange& t"e %orl&, a# t"ey "a& /ro$i#e& in t"eir long tra6ectory #ince t"e late nineteent" century' T"e /rote#tor# /roclai$e& t"e#e $ove$ent# to be not /art of t"e #olution but /art of t"e /roble$' :one of t"e#e $ove$ent# %oul& ever be able to recover fro$ t"e /olitical #"ock t"i# cau#e&' T"e#e $ove$ent# cea#e& in fact to be $ove$ent# an& beca$e $erely /artie#' T"ey lo#t t"e ability to $obilize t"e fait"ful %"o believe& an& %ere rea&y to #acrifice t"e$#elve# for t"e certain gloriou# future t"e $ove$ent# "a& /ro$i#e&' T"e#e $ove$ent# "a& been t"e $ove$ent# of $o&ernity' T"e $o&ern %a# to "ave been t"e fulfill$ent of t"e #truggle, t"e en& of t"e /roce##, t"e "eaven on eart"' 7t t"e en& of t"i# #truggle, all /roble$# %oul& fin& re#olution' !t i# no acci&ent t"at, a# /art of t"e %orl&*revolution of 1+-., t"e %orl& #a% t"e co$ing to t"e fore, t"e flouri#"ing, of all t"e $ove$ent# %"o#e cau#e# "a& been /ut a#i&e a# "aving to a%ait t"e en& of t"e /roce##' T"e#e %ere t"e $ove$ent# t"at a##erte& t"e rig"t# of t"e )forgotten /eo/le) 0 t"e %o$en, t"e et"no*racial )$inoritie#), t"e )in&igenou#) /eo/le#, t"o#e %"o#e #exual /ractice# %ere ot"er t"an t"e "it"erto &efine& nor$' T"ey %ere al#o t"e $ove$ent# of t"o#e %"o foug"t for a #aner %orl& ecology, t"o#e %"o #truggle& for /eace, t"o#e %"o /re##e& t"e nece##ity of non* violent #truggle' 7ll t"e#e grou/# %ere no% re6ecting t"e over%"el$ing /ri$acy of t"e /re#u$e& /ri$e "i#torical actor /ut for%ar& by t"e tra&itional #ocial an& nationali#t $ove$ent#, in#i#ting on t"e co*e=ual /ri$acy of all t"e o//re##e& grou/#' 7ll t"e#e grou/# %ere re6ecting t"e vertical #tructure# of t"e anti*#y#te$ic $ove$ent# t"at "a& al%ay# clai$e& to be t"e only legiti$ate $ove$ent %it"in t"eir #tate 9/re#ent or /ro#/ective<' T"ey all c"a$/ione& in#tea& a $ore "orizontal alliance of $ulti/le grou/#' 7n& in t"e /roce##, all t"e#e grou/# began to =ue#tion t"e e/i#te$ological a##u$/tion# of )$o&ernity) 0 #eeing t"e$ a# "i&&en, an& not #o "i&&en, legiti$ation# of t"e &o$inance of a #$all #eg$ent of "u$anity, t"at %"ic" "a& &o$inate& t"e tra&itional anti*#y#te$ic $ove$ent#' T"e en& of $o&ernity, t"e #earc" for t"e )/o#t$o&ern), involve& t"e re6ection of t"e a##u$/tion# of )inevitable /rogre##) a# incarnate& in Enlig"ten$ent t"oug"t' !t $eant not only a &ifferent %ay of t"inking about t"e %orl&, but al#o a &ifferent /olitic# an& a &ifferent geo/olitic#' !t $eant t"e liberation of t"e %orl& )left) fro$ t"e tacitly )centri#t) /re#u$/tion# of t"e tra&itional anti* #y#te$ic $ove$ent#' 3"at, "o%ever, $any of t"o#e involve& in t"i# attack co$ing e##entially fro$ t"e left on $o&ernity an& %"at ! %oul& call )centri#t liberali#$) i# t"at it liberate& t"e %orl& Gig"t a# %ell fro$ %"at "a& been it# e=ually tacit acce/tance of t"e a$eliorative /rinci/le# of t"i# #a$e )centri#t liberali#$)' So$e of t"e$, in t"eir anxiety to a##ert t"e /ri$acy of )culture) faile& to realize t"at, a# long a# %e live in a ca/itali#t %orl&*econo$y, neit"er t"e econo$ic nor t"e /olitical un&er/inning# of our live# #i$/ly cea#e to $atter' T"e ne% /o#t*1+-. /olitical #cene %oul& be one in %"ic" not only ra&ical# but al#o con#ervative# ca$e to feel liberate& fro$ t"e con#traint# of t"e for$erly &o$inant centri#t liberali#$' T"i# &ouble liberation %a# crucially i$/ortant becau#e t"e overall #tructure of t"e %orl&*#y#te$ %a# entering into a cyclical #"ift' T"e year# 1+- *1+ 2 %ere t"e turning*/oint in t%o crucial %ay#' !t $arke& not only t"e en& of t"e /erio& of un=ue#tione& 4S "ege$ony in t"e %orl&*#y#te$ but al#o t"e en& of t"e greate#t ex/an#ion in t"e %orl&*econo$y t"e #y#te$ "a& ever kno%n' 3"at t"e 8renc" calle& )le# trente# glorieu#e#) 0 a ty/ical ;on&ratieff 7*cycle exce/t t"at it involve& a far larger ex/an#ion of t"e %orl&*econo$y t"an any /reviou# one 0 reac"e& it# /oint of ex"au#tion' T"e =ua#i*$ono/olie# t"at "a& #u#taine& t"e ex/an#ion "a& been #ufficiently un&er$ine& t"at t"e %orl&*#y#te$ entere& into a ;on&ratieff B*cycle of #tagnation, one t"at "a# been going on ever 4

#ince' 3"at %e call to&ay t"e financial cri#i# of t"e %orl&*econo$y i# #i$/ly t"e cul$inating /oint of t"i# long ;on&ratieff B*/"a#e' T"e %orl& @eft /a##e& t"e 1+ 0# in #earc" of ne% organizational for$# t"at %oul& re/lace t"o#e t"at t"e Ol& @eft, t"e tra&itional anti*#y#te$ic $ove$ent# 9no% in #e$i*&i#grace<, "a& in#titutionalize&' T"e %orl& Gig"t %a# $uc" $ore /ractical' T"ey launc"e& a co"erent /rogra$ to tran#for$ t"e &irection of t"e %orl&*#y#te$ an& to /u#" back again#t all t"e a&vance# in #ocial %elfare t"at "a& been ac"ieve& &uring t"e 1+1,*1+- H 2 /erio&' T"ey %ere &eter$ine& to re&uce real %age# %orl&%i&e, re/el all t"e /re##ure# on /ro&ucer# to internalize t"e co#t# of co$bating &a$age to t"e %orl&E# ecology, an& to re&uce, even eli$inate, t"e benefit# of t"e %elfare #tate' T"i# /rogra$ %a# calle& neo*liberali#$' T"e#e force# %ere able to co$e to /o%er in t"e 4nite& State# %it" t"e election of Gonal& Geagan in 1+.0, an& in t"e key ally of t"e 4nite& State#, 5reat Britain, %it" t"e ?on#ervative govern$ent "ea&e& by Margaret T"atc"er a# of 1+ +' T"ey #oug"t bot" legi#lative c"ange# in t"eir o%n countrie# an& &i#cour#e c"ange# t"roug"out t"e %orl&' T"ey calle& for t"e re6ection every%"ere of )&evelo/$entali#$), %"ic" "a& been t"e &o$inating &i#cour#e of t"e /o#t*1+1, /erio&' Fevelo/$entali#$ 0 /ro$ote& e=ually, albeit in #lig"tly &ifferent verbiage#, by t"e 4nite& State# an& it# allie#, t"e Soviet 4nion an& it# allie#, an& t"e lea&er# of T"ir& 3orl& countrie# 0 "a& been ba#e& on t"e t"eorie# of inevitable /rogre## an& t"e role of t"e #tate# in /ro$oting $o&ernity' T"e an#%er to &evelo/$entali#$, #ai& t"e neo*liberal#, %a# globalization 0 e##entially e$bracing t"e o/ening of all frontier# to t"e free $ove$ent of ca/ital an& $erc"an&i#e, but not labor' T"e key t"e$e %a# t"e free&o$ of /rivate fir$# to #eek /rofit in any %ay t"ey coul&' T"i# %a# to be ba#e& on t"e $oral un&e#irability of #tate interference in any %ay, an& t"e /olitical inca/acity of t"e #tate# to &o #o' !t %a# T"atc"erE# fa$ou# #logan 0 T!:7, T"ere i# :o 7lternative' !f globalization re#ulte& in exaggerate& ine=ualitie#, t"i# %a# inevitable, an& /er"a/# even &e#irable' 5lobalization a# &i#cour#e %a#, i#, rig"t%ing anti*$o&erni#$' 7# #uc", it %a# $uc" $ore /olitically #ucce##ful in t"e /erio& 1+.0*2000 t"an left%ing anti*$o&erni#$' T"ere %a#, "o%ever, a catc" to t"e &i#cour#e on globalization' 3"at it &i& not talk about %a# t"e fact t"at t"e 1+ 0# %a# t"e beginning of an or&inary ;on&ratieff B*/"a#e' Or&inary B*/"a#e# are t"e con#e=uence of t"e fact t"at /rofit# fro$ /ro&uctive enter/ri#e# "ave beco$e very $uc" re&uce& becau#e of t"e &ecline in =ua#i*$ono/olie# of lea&ing /ro&uct#' Seriou# atte$/t# at accu$ulation "ave t"erefore to #eek an alternative route' T"i# alternative route i# inve#ting in t"e financial arena, t"at i#, in #/eculating' 7# t"e year# 1+1,*1+ 0 %ere t"e large#t ex/an#ion of /ro&uctive enter/ri#e an& /ro&uctive /rofit# in t"e "i#tory of t"e $o&ern %orl&* #y#te$, #o t"e year# 1+ 0*2010 "ave been t"e year# of t"e large#t ex/an#ion of #/eculative /rofit# in t"e "i#tory of t"e $o&ern %orl&*#y#te$' T"ere are of cour#e ot"er feature# of a #tan&ar& ;on&ratieff B*/"a#e, #uc" a# #ignificant increa#e in une$/loy$ent %orl&%i&e an& relocation of /ro&uctive enter/ri#e# to ot"er zone# of t"e %orl&* #y#te$ in #earc" of le## co#tly labour' T"i# latter feature lea&# to t"e clai$ by t"e area# of in&u#trial relocation t"at t"ey are )&evelo/ing) an& in&ee& t"ey are t"e locu# of #o$e #"ift in %orl&%i&e ca/ital accu$ulation' T"e crucial feature "o%ever of financialization, a# it "a# co$e to be kno%n, i# t"at it re=uire# in&ebte&ne##' 7n& #ince &ebt# "ave to be re/ai& at #o$e /oint, t"e %orl& run# t"roug" #ucce##ive &ebtor#, until it begin# to ex"au#t t"e /o##ibilitie# of fin&ing t"e$, %"ic" i# our current #ituation' 5

One key #et of &ebtor# "ave been t"e #tate#' !n t"e 1+ 0#, recycle& oil rent %a# lent to govern$ent# of t"e T"ir& 3orl& an& al#o to t"e #tate# in t"e #ociali#t bloc' 3"en t"ey reac"e& t"e /oint at %"ic" t"ey coul&nEt re/ay t"e#e &ebt#, govern$ent# 9an& t"e $ove$ent# linke& to t"e#e govern$ent#< began to fall' T"e $o#t &ra$atic of t"e#e fall# %a# t"at of t"e Soviet 4nion an& t"e ?BS4' Mik"ail 5orbac"ev &oe# not get a very goo& /re## t"e#e &ay#, eit"er in#i&e or out#i&e of Gu##ia' !tE# #o$e%"at unfair, an& "i#tory %ill revi#e t"i# 6u&g$ent' ! believe "i# %a# a "eroic, if fla%e&, atte$/t to co$e to ter$# %it" t"e c"ange& %orl& #ituation an& #alvage a refor$e& Soviet 4nion' T"e colla/#e of t"e Soviet 4nion an& of t"e ?BS4 %a# "aile& at t"e ti$e, an& #till #een by $any, a# t"e victory of t"e 4nite& State# in t"e ?ol& 3ar' !n fact, t"i# colla/#e %a# t"e &efeat of t"e 4nite& State# in t"e ?ol& 3ar' T"e ?ol& 3ar %a# not #u//o#e& to en& but to continue in&efinitely' T"e colla/#e create& t%o enor$ou# /roble$# for t"e 4nite& State#' T"e fir#t %a# t"at it lo#t it# o#ten#ible ene$y an& t"erefore t"e la#t #trong argu$ent it "a& for %"y %e#tern Euro/e 9an& >a/an< #"oul& re$ain tie& to 4S )lea&er#"i/) an& not #tray into /laying an autono$ou# geo/olitical role' T"e #econ&, an& /er"a/# even $ore i$/ortant, lo## %a# t"at it lo#t t"e ability of t"e Soviet 4nion to con#train it# frien&# an& allie# fro$ )&angerou#) action# t"at $ig"t in any %ay lea& to a Soviet* 7$erican nuclear %ar' T"e $o#t i$$e&iate con#e=uence of t"e colla/#e of t"e Soviet 4nion %a# Sa&&a$ Cu##einE# inva#ion of ;u%ait in 1++0 0 #o$et"ing t"e Soviet 4nion in earlier &ay# %oul& "ave been able to #to/' T"e 4nite& State# re#/on&e& in 1++1 %it" t"e fir#t 5ulf 3ar, %"ic" force& t"e %it"&ra%al by t"e !ra=i# fro$ ;u%ait' 8ar fro$ being )t"e en& of "i#tory) an& a ne% %orl& or&er &o$inate& by t"e 4nite& State#, t"e fir#t 5ulf 3ar, o#ten#ibly %on by t"e 4nite& State#, %oul& lea&, al$o#t inevitably, to t"e #elf* &e#tructive #econ& inva#ion of !ra= by t"e 4nite& State# a &eca&e later' T"e gro%ing &a$age to t"e %orl&E# /eo/le# cau#e& by t"e /olicie# i$/o#e& on #tate# in t"e era of neo*liberal globalization le& in t"e 1++0# to t"e beginning of t"e counter*tren&' ! trace t"e counter* $ove$ent to t"e u/ri#ing of t"e Ia/ati#ta# 9EI@:< on >an' 1, 1++1 in ?"ia/a#' T"ey c"o#e t"at &ate to $ake /ublic t"eir #truggle becau#e it %a# #y$bolic' !t %a# t"e &ate on %"ic" t"e :ort" 7$erican 8ree Tra&e 7##ociation 9:78T7< ca$e into force' On t"e one "an& it %a# t"e announce$ent of a #truggle t"at %a# local 0 t"e &e$an& of real autono$y for t"e in&igenou# /eo/le# of ?"ia/a# 9an& el#e%"ere<' But at t"e #a$e ti$e t"e #truggle %a# global 0 t"e #truggle again#t 4S geo/olitical &o$inance an& it# Mexican allie# 9t"e national govern$ent<' ?"ia/a# in 1++1 %a# follo%e& notably by t"e &e$on#tration# at Seattle in 1+++ %"en t"e effort# of t"e 3orl& Tra&e Organization 93TO< to enact enforceable neoliberal con#traint# on t"e ability of govern$ent# to re#i#t globalization %a# #to//e& in it# track#, an& "a# never been able to re#u$e' 7n& t"e #ucce## of t"e Seattle &e$on#tration# #tarte& a /roce## t"at le& to t"e creation of t"e 3orl& Social 8oru$ in Borto 7legre in 2001, %"ic" "a# e$erge& a# t"e $a6or /olitical force 9of an original an& unu#ual kin&< fig"ting for )anot"er %orl& t"at i# /o##ible) 0 an alterglobalization' One la#t %or& on 2001' T"at year %a# al#o t"e co$ing to /o%er in t"e 4nite& State# of 5eorge 3' Bu#" an& "i# a&$ini#tration of )neo*con#ervative#)' !t %a# al#o, a# %e are con#tantly re$in&e&, t"e year of +H11, t"e #ucce##ful an& #tartling attack by al*Jae&a on 7$erican #oil' 3e kno% %"at "a//ene&' T"e neo*con# u#e& t"e attack# of +H11 to launc" t"eir /rogra$ of #o* 6

calle& )#"ock an& a%e) 0 t"e inva#ion of !ra= in 2002' T"i# %a# a %ar for %"ic" t"ey "a& been calling, /ublicly, #ince 1++ ' !f %e are to un&er#tan& %"at "a# "a//ene& in t"e %orl&, %e $u#t un&er#tan& t"e rea#oning of t"e neo*con# %"o &o$inate& t"e Bu#" regi$e' T"e neo*con# $a&e t"e follo%ing analy#i# of t"e %orl&*#y#te$' T"ey believe& t"at t"e 4nite& State# "a& been &eclining a# a "ege$onic /o%er #ince t"e 1+ 0# 0 exactly $y o%n analy#i#' T"eir ex/lanation for t"i# &ecline %a# "o%ever =uite &ifferent' ! "ave trie& to #"o% %"y "ege$onic &ecline i# #tructurally inevitable' T"e neo*con# in#i#te& t"at it %a# t"e re#ult of "u$an error 0 t"e $oral an& /olitical %eakne## of 4S /re#i&ent# fro$ :ixon to ?linton 9inclu&ing, be it note&, Gonal& Geagan<' T"e neo*con# felt t"at t"e roa& to rea##u$ing "ege$onic &o$inance %a# for t"e 4nite& State# to engage in unilateral $ac"o $ilitari#$ t"at %oul& inti$i&ate everyone 0 an& fir#t of all t"eir /re#u$e& clo#e#t allie# in %e#tern Euro/e 0 into follo%ing 4S /olicie# %it"out "e#itation' T"ey c"o#e !ra= a# t"e &e$on#tration fiel& for t"i# exerci#e' 3"y !ra=K Becau#e it "a& "u$iliate& t"e 4nite& State#' Co% #oK By t"e fact t"at Sa&&a$ Cu##ein "a& #urvive& t"e fir#t 5ulf 3ar an& %a# #till in /o%er' 7n& %"y %a# "e #till in /o%erK Becau#e t"e t"en /re#i&ent, 5eorge C'3' Bu#", &i& not $arc" on Bag"&a& an& ou#t Sa&&a$ Cu##ein' 7n& %"y &i& t"e fir#t Bre#i&ent Bu#" not &o t"i#K Becau#e "e believe& t"at &oing #o %oul& lea& t"e 4nite& State# into a =uag$ire, out of %"ic" it %oul& not be able to extract it#elf' So in 2001, t"e Bu#" a&$ini#tration &eci&e& to inva&e !ra= an& it took t%o year# to get rea&y an& obtain #o$e li$ite& #u//ort fro$ #o$e ot"er countrie#' T"e neo*con# ex/ecte& t"at 91< t"e inva#ion %oul& be $ilitarily very ea#y an& t"e !ra=i /ublic %oul& greet t"e 7$erican# a# liberator#D 92< %e#tern Euro/e %oul& /ro$/tly aban&on all i&ea of geo/olitical autono$yD 92< %oul&*be nuclear /roliferator# 9notably :ort" ;orea an& !ran< %oul& i$$e&iately cea#e t"e#e effort#D an& 91< #o*calle& $o&erate 7rab #tate# %oul& be rea&y to #ettle once an& for all t"e i##ue of Bale#tine $ore or le## on !#raeli ter$#' !n every one of t"e#e ex/ectation#, t"e neo*con# turne& out to be %rong, cata#tro/"ically %rong' !ra=i re#i#tance %a# long, effective, an& #till ongoing' 8rance an& 5er$any tea$e& u/ %it" Gu##ia to give t"e 4nite& State# a cru#"ing &efeat in t"e Security ?ouncil in Marc" 2002' :ort" ;orea an& !ran, far fro$ aban&oning effort# to beco$e nuclear /o%er#, #/ee&e& t"e$ u/' 7n& t"e 7rab #tate# beca$e le## %illing t"an ever to acce/t !#raeli &ictation of ter$# concerning Bale#tine' T"e %"ole fia#co "a# le& in#tea& into t"e /reci/itate an& &efinitive &ecline of t"e 4nite& State# a# a "ege$onic /o%er' !n 200., t"e next*to*la#t #/eculative bubble bur#t' T"e %orl&, an& $o#t e#/ecially t"e 4nite& State#, entere& into t"e #o*calle& 5reat Gece##ion, %"ic" i# actually a %orl& &e/re##ion' 7n& it %ill be #o$eti$e until %e e$erge even /artially fro$ t"e &eflationary con#e=uence#'