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If humankind continues to exploit fossil fuels as at present, the result will be dangerous 1
climate change. Summarise the climate science that underpins this sort of warning. 2
Highlight the factors that introduce major uncertainty into predictions of the extent of 3
21
st
century climate change. 4
Abstract. 3
Due to the over exploitation of fossil fuels, the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have 6
increased from the pre-Industrial Revolution value of 280ppmv to the current concentration 7
of 385ppmv, the combustion of fossil fuels releases 7.5 GtC into the atmosphere each year 8
and unfortunately the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere can only absorb approximately 55% 9
of this, so every year more carbon accumulates in the atmosphere and will lead to an 10
increasingly dangerous climate change. Even if emissions of carbon dioxide were to 11
completely cease, there would still be a warming of 2.4
o
C. The impacts of a higher global 12
temperature include more intense precipitation events and storms, a rise in sea level, and 13
decreased biodiversity due to amplified extinction rates. Obviously there are some 14
uncertainties, for example scientists are unaware of how much natural influences control 13
temperature and how the climate system functions in terms of feedback. However most 16
people are certain that combustion of fossil fuels is the major contributor to observed and 17
future climate change. 18
Introduction 19
Awareness of the effect of anthropogenic emissions on our climate has increased 20
dramatically during recent years; however this does not seem to have cut down our 21
consumption of fossil fuels. The burning of fossil fuels emits a number of greenhouse gases, 22
the dominating greenhouse gas being carbon dioxide (CO
2
). Greenhouse gases in the 23
atmosphere trap incoming solar radiation and prevent the warmed surface from re-radiating 24
energy (Goudie, 2001). Already increasing global temperatures have been observed since 23
pre-industrial times and these seem to coincide with the increasing atmospheric concentration 26
of CO
2
. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by over 30% from 27
280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1750 to a present day value of 385 ppmv 28
(Alexeev, 2007). Scientists believe that already anthropogenic emissions have committed 29
the world to a warming of 2.4
o
C above the pre-industrial surface temperature. When 2
o
C 30
above the pre industrial temperatures is considered to be dangerous anthropogenic 31
interference (Ramanathan and Feng, 2009). Yet despite the further knowledge of the 32
climate system there are still uncertainties. The scale of future exploitation of fossil fuels is 33
unknown, and therefore the future impacts cannot be predicted, instead scientists use 34
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scenarios to try to outline a number of situations as to how fossil fuel consumption may 33
change in the future. Other uncertainties arise from not knowing how far anthropogenic 36
emissions, through use of fossil fuels, influence climate. There are many things that control 37
climate change such as solar variability, volcanic eruptions and the El Nino Southern 38
Oscillation (ENSO) (Harvey, 2000). Nevertheless from all of the evidence gathered so far it 39
appears that anthropogenic emissions are having a dominating role in controlling the current 40
climate change and the result of a business-as-usual approach to fossil fuel exploitation 41
would be disastrous climate change. 42
Methods 43
The method that is usually used is to compare observational data from the present with 44
data collected in the past and to see how indicators such as global mean temperature, mean 43
precipitation, changes in animal and plant distribution, snowfall in Greenland and Antarctica 46
and the severity of storms have changed (Goudie, 2001). However this only shows the 47
changes so far, it does not illustrate how things will change in the future. In order to try to 48
predict future climate change and the implications of this, scientists use models. Climate 49
models are based on physical principles and they simplify how the climate works. Models are 30
being increasingly used due to the fact that they can process large amounts of data (IPCC, 31
2007). There are two types of model which can be used, Atmosphere-Ocean General 32
Circulation Model (AOGCM) which are based on interactions of the ocean and the 33
atmosphere, and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) which work on 34
millennial timescales (Solomon et al, 2009). The models are used to replicate a number of 33
possible scenarios (in the case of the IPCC fourth assessment report it is 4: A1, A2, B1 and 36
B2). Using scenarios, AOGCMs have been developed to predict future concentrations of CO
2
37
and therefore scientists can start to predict possible climate change (Ravindranath and 38
Sathaye, 2002). Although most models are not perfectly correct, when many different types 39
are applied together the outcome usually complements that of other models, for example 60
AOGCMs seem to have similar results to EMICs (IPCC, 2007). 61
Results 62
The exploitation of fossil fuels and the resulting CO
2
emissions from them has been 63
carefully monitored not just by individual countries but also by the UN. Many countries are 64
conscientiously trying to reduce C0
2
emissions as part of the Kyoto agreement; however they 63
are still using fossil fuels. Table 1 shows the C0
2
emission per unit of energy for coal, oil and 66
natural gas. Natural gas is the smallest of the three but in comparison with renewable energy 67
sources such as solar and tidal which involve no direct emissions of CO
2
it is still not great 68
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(Harvey, 2000). Combustion of fossil fuels currently contribute to around 80% of the total 69
CO
2
emission, adding 7.5 gigatons of carbon per year (Gt C/yr) into the atmosphere, 55% of 70
which stays in the air (Ramanathan and Feng, 2009). This means that even if we suddenly 71
stop emitting CO
2
the planet will still get warmer by around 2.4
o
C due to the fact that the 72
carbon will probably accumulate in the atmosphere and stay there for millennia (Karl and 73
Trenberth, 2003). 74
Table 1: the table shows the carbon dioxide emission factor for the combustion of fossil 73
fuels. 76
Source CO
2
emission factor
Anthracite coal 23.5 26.6
Lignite coal 22.2 25.9
Bituminous coal 23.9 24.5
Sub-bituminous coal 24.8 25.7
Oil 17 20
Natural gas 13.5 14.0
77
78
79
80
81
82
Even though the oceans and the biosphere are great carbon sinks, with the oceans alone 83
absorbing around 2.0GtC/yr, the rate at which they take up anthropogenic CO
2
is not 84
consistent with the rate at which anthropogenic CO
2
is being released (Harvey, 2000). Most 83
atmospheric CO
2
has come from the combustion of fossil fuels, in fact throughout the last 20 86
years approximately 75% of emissions have come from burning fossil fuels (Energy 87
Information Administration, 2008). The IPCC has been monitoring emissions of CO
2
and has 88
recorded an 80% increase in fossil fuel use from 1970 2004, perhaps due to the 89
exponentially growing population, or because of increased industrialisation globally, but they 90
also recorded that CO
2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion constituted 56.6% of the 91
global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2004. See figure 1 which shows global 92
annual emissions, the percentages of greenhouse gases emitted for 2004, and the role that 93
different sectors have in the emission of greenhouse gases. The IPCC has also published a 94
number of predictions about future global mean temperatures, they forecast that without 93
effective action CO
2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion will rise by 40-110% and this will 96
increase the temperature dramatically for the next twenty years. there will be a warming of 97
Table 1 CO
2
emissions per unit of energy for the main fossil fuels, units are in kg of carbon
per kg of fuel combusted, from (Harvey, 2000). The three coal fuels have the greatest CO
2

emission factor and also have quite a wide range of carbon that they could release, it can be
quite variable. Natural gas releases the smallest amount of CO
2
per unit of energy provided. It
seems the only way to reduce the CO
2
emission from a fossil fuel is to use less, as synthetic oil
and gas which are made from coal, release more CO
2
per unit of energy given than even the
direct use of coal for energy, and a lot more than combusting oil and natural gas.

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0.2
o
C per decade and a projected temperature increase likely to be between 1.4
o
C and 5.8
o
C 98
by 2100 (IPCC, 2007). The global annual mean temperature for 2008 was 14.31
o
C: 0.31
o
C 99
above the 1961-1990 average, one of the top ten warmest years on record (see figure 2) (Met 100
Office, 2008). 101
Figure 1: a) shows the annual global emissions of greenhouse gases from 1970-2004, b) 102
illustrates how the different greenhouse gases contributed to the total emission for 2004, 103
and c) shows how the different sectors share in the anthropogenic emissions total for 104
2004. 103
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
Discussion 113
The increase in global temperatures already observed is just one of many impacts of the 114
combustion of fossil fuels that we are currently seeing and which will continue to get much 113
worse. As a result of the increased temperature and complex climate feedback systems there 116
will be major environmental, economic and social implications, one of these which is 117
constantly under the media spotlight is the rise in sea level. The Hadley Centre projects that 118
by 2100 sea level will have risen by 30-50 cm. Thermal expansion of the sea water is caused 119
by increased temperatures and may have already added 2-5 cm, because water gets denser as 120
it warms and increases the volume of the seawater in the ocean and thus amplifies the sea 121
level, a globally uniform warming of 3
o
C would cause a sea level rise of 2.4m (Harvey, 122
2000). Sea level is also rising due to the melting of glaciers and ice caps, if the Greenland ice 123
1a) shows how the emission of greenhouse gases, namely carbon dioxide from fossil fuel
use, has increased since 1970. 1b) is very significant in that in 2004 CO
2
from fossil fuel
use contributed 56.6% to the total greenhouse gas emissions. CO
2
as a whole contributes
more than of the total emissions, more than any other greenhouse gas, and the majority
of this comes from combustion of fossil fuel use, suggesting that this is the major
contributor to global warming. 1c) shows how different industries contribute to the total
greenhouse gas emissions; obviously energy supply is the highest emitter as this is where
most of the fossil fuel combustion takes place. Source: (IPCC, 2007).
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sheet were to melt completely it would add 7.4m to the sea level. If sea levels did indeed 124
increase to the levels predicted by the IPCC and the Hadley Centre then all low-lying coastal 123
areas would become flooded and would displace large numbers of people. The melting of 126
glaciers and ice caps also leads to higher surface temperatures due to the lower albedo, which 127
will contribute again to the further retreat of the ice caps in a feedback loop (Ravindranath 128
and Sathaye, 2002). 129
Figure 2: a graph to show the warmest years from the period between 1850 and 2008. 130
131
132
133
134
133
The increased temperature will lead to increases in extreme weather events and such as heat 136
wave episodes (Planton et al, 2008). Frosty days will become fewer and the permafrost will 137
thaw faster and faster, releasing more methane (a more effective greenhouse gas than CO
2
) 138
which will increase the rate of warming. On a more positive note the growing seasons will 139
increase in temperate latitudes, encouraging the growth of many crops, however in semi-arid 140
regions such as Africa and India the increased temperature may increase aridity and so food 141
shortages and drought may be likely to increase in these regions (Ravindranath and Sathaye, 142
2002). Though according to Planton et al The global trends for drought are less consistent 143
between models due to their regional variability. The increasing temperature in this century 144
is projected to lead to vegetation displacement (Goudie, 2001). The rate of photosynthesis is 143
expected to increase at first, due to the increase in availability of CO
2
, however experiments 146
conducted with higher CO
2
levels have led to only a few of the plants surviving over longer 147
2008 is the tenth warmest year on record at 14.3
o
C, interestingly all of the ten warmest
years are from the last decade, suggesting that already we are observing the impacts of
over a century of fossil fuel combustion and climate change is already occurring now. The
figure from 2008 is apparently slightly reduced due to the La Nina which occurred during
2007, which typically lead to cooler global temperatures. Source: Met Office, 2008.
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periods (Harvey, 2000). Widespread loss of biodiversity can also be expected because the 148
organisms do not have time to adapt to the warmer climates (Ramanathan and Feng, 2009). 149
Along with the increased temperatures increased frequency of extremes of precipitation are 130
expected, mainly because of increased evapotranspiration rates and the warmer atmosphere 131
holding more water and also appears to be connected to a change in the shape of the 132
precipitation intensity distribution (Planton et al, 2008). The intensity of summer monsoons is 133
also projected to increase with increasing temperature (Harvey, 2000). 134
It appears that the impacts of the climate change will not be distributed evenly throughout 133
the globe; developing nations are likely to be the hardest hit. Populations of the developing 136
world are likely to be more vulnerable as they cannot be as prepared as the developed nations 137
in terms of adequate health services, access to clean water, education and a well-functioning 138
basic infrastructure, which means that despite contributing very little to the CO
2
emissions 139
through the combustion of fossil fuels they are likely to be the hardest hit. Many are still too 160
troubled with increasing their economy and decreasing malnutrition to turn their attentions 161
towards developing the infrastructure needed to deal with the future difficult situations and so 162
have a lower adaptive capacity than many developed countries (Ravindranath and Sathaye, 163
2002). 164
However most of these severe impacts are just predicted by computer simulated models 163
which are not incredibly accurate and leave a lot of uncertainties. Sometimes the processes 166
are known however relationships between different processes are not, making the models 167
even less accurate, and the uncertainty of what the human behaviour will be in the future 168
means that scenarios need to be used, though they may not be true to what will occur (Swart 169
et al, 2009). In fact there are many uncertainties in predicting what the climate change due to 170
anthropogenic forcing will be. It is difficult to deduce whether the interference of climate 171
feedbacks will enhance or reduce the temperature increases. There are so many feedback 172
systems within the climate (Ravindranath and Sathaye, 2002). Some of these include clouds, 173
ice and snow, and water vapour. Snow changes the reflectivity of the surface of the Earth and 174
increases the albedo causing cooling of the air above it which leads to lower surface 173
temperatures and leads to more snow, which further decreases the temperature it is an 176
example of a positive feedback system. Water vapour is also an example of a positive 177
feedback system, except it warms the air, and then the warmer climate leads to increased 178
water vapour in the atmosphere due to increased rates of evaporation and transpiration and an 179
increased water holding capacity in the air (Goudie, 2001). The scale of all of these different 180
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feedback systems, their exact impact on climate, and the forcing needed to trigger them are 181
not known. 182
Other uncertainties arise from not knowing the precise forcing that CO
2
has on the 183
atmosphere. There are some natural variables to be considered: solar variability, volcanic 184
activity and ENSO are just a few natural factors which have some climatic control (see figure 183
3). The contribution of solar variation to the mean surface temperatures is particularly 186
controversial. Some believe that solar variability contributed approximately 69% to the 187
warming in the twentieth century other experts believe that the solar variability contributed 188
significantly less (Lean and Rind, 2008). What is known is that the sun has cycles in which 189
the number of sunspots changes (it is an eleven year period) but knowledge of how the 190
number of sunspots affects the solar luminosity is not fully understood (Harvey, 2000). 191
Volcanic forcing and ENSO also cause variations in climate, though to some extent the 192
influence that they each have on temperature change is known, and therefore it is unlikely 193
that either of them will contribute much to any long term dangerous climate change their 194
affects lasting only a few years, not thousands. Volcanic eruptions actually cause a fall in 193
global mean temperatures as the sulphur dioxide that is released reacts in the air to form a 196
layer of sulphuric acid aerosol in the stratosphere and which therefore decreases the amount 197
of solar radiation penetrating the atmosphere by around 10-20% (Alexeev, 2007). 198
Figure 3: The contributions that individual natural and anthropogenic influences have 199
on monthly mean global temperatures. 200
201
202
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203
204
203
206
207
208
209
210
211
Conclusion 212
Much of the evidence collected and published, seems to point to one conclusion that if 213
humankind continues to overexploit fossil fuels as at present then the result will be dangerous 214
climate change. The current rate of combustion of fossil fuels in many countries is only 213
adding the years on to how long the atmosphere will take to recover and equilibrate. Solomon 216
et al believe that the climate change that we have already induced is now irreversible, and if 217
the exploitation of fossil fuels (and so the emission of CO
2
) were to be reduced to a more 218
sustainable level the temperature would still increase significantly, though it would not 219
increase to such a dangerous level and the CO
2
would not be maintained for quite so long in 220
the atmosphere, levels would be brought back down to pre-industrial levels within a thousand 221
years rather than within hundreds of thousands of years. However there are many 222
uncertainties such as the role of natural influences on climate, the lack of knowledge about 223
how climate systems interact and what future human behaviour regarding fossil fuel 224
consumption will be, and also the reliability of the models themselves. Perhaps to increase 223
support more research could be done to try to find out how all Earth surface systems interact 226
with each other and thereby increase the accuracy of the models, and more decisive action 227
definitely needs to be taken by governments and the UN to reduce exploitation of fossil fuels. 228
However some of the impacts of a temperature increase due to a higher concentration of CO
2
229
in the atmosphere are agreed by most scientists, such as increases in extremes of storms and 230
3a) shows that the index for ENSO is just above zero, suggesting that at the moment
ENSO is not having much of an effect on climate, certainly not a long term effect,
similarly volcanic aerosols only affect global temperatures for a few years, 3b) shows that
at the moment volcanic aerosols are having very little impact on climate and the optical
depth is at zero, suggesting no major forcing. 3c) shows that solar irradiance has been
increasing slightly since the early 1900s and so has increased global surface temperatures
a little. However 3d) shows that the major influence on climate must be due to
anthropogenic forcing, The inset in Figure 2d shows the individual greenhouse gases,
tropospheric aerosols and the land surface plus snow albedo components that combine to
give the net anthropogenic forcing from (Lean and Rind, 2008).
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precipitation events, sea level rise, and a decrease in biodiversity and productivity. 231
Considering humankinds current reliance on fossil fuels the future does not look an 232
optimistic one. 233
Word count: approximately 2,570 excluding figures, tables and references. 234
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