THE IMPACT OF LINEARITY TEST ON FORECASTING INDONESIAN INFLATION BY USING NEURAL NETWORKS Suhartono1, Subanar2 and Suryo Guritno2

Statistics Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Indonesia PhD Student, Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada Uni ersit! suhartono"statistika#its#ac#id$ har%arema"!ahoo#com
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Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada Uni ersit!, Indonesia subanar"!ahoo#com$

Abstract# The aims o' this paper are to appl! Neural Net(orks )NN* model 'or 'orecasting Indonesian in'lation and to stud! the e''ecti eness o' linearit! test on NN modeling and 'orecasting# In this paper, (e particularl! 'ocus on the model building o' NN as time series model and compare the result (ith the traditional econometrics time series approach, particularl! +,IM+- model# The comparison results based on the d!namic 'orecasting bet(een NN and +,IM+- models sho( that the accurac! o' NN model is slightl! better than +,IM+- model# Then, (e appl! linearit! test, i#e# .hite test, to e aluate and e/plain (hether a nonlinear model should be used 'or modeling and 'orecasting Indonesian in'lation# The result sho(s statisticall! that nonlinear model is not needed 'or in'lation modeling (ith increasing 'uel price )also kno(n as 00M* and Islamic 1alendar e''ects )price tend to increase during ,amadhan and the 2ids holida!* as predictors# In general, the results e/plain the importance o' linearit! test be'ore appl!ing nonlinear model as NN 'or time series modeling# 2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 3&M14, 3&M56 Keywords: linearit! test, neural net(orks, in'lation, d!namic 'orecasting

1. Introduction
During the last 'e( !ears, the use o' the neural net(orks )NN* in economics literature, particularl! in the areas o' 'inancial statistics and e/change rates, has gro(n and recei ed a great deal o' attention# Some publications about it can be 'ound in 713, 18, &4, &3, 95:#

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&

>eed'or(ard Neural Net(orks )>>NN* model is the most popular 'orm o' NN models used 'or 'orecasting, particularl! in economics and 'inance# >>NN is a class o' 'le/ible nonlinear models that can disco er patterns adapti el! 'rom the data# The use o' the NN model in applied (ork is generall! moti ated b! a mathematical result stating that under mild regularit! conditions, a relati el! simple NN model is capable o' appro/imating an! 0orel?measureable 'unction to an! gi en degree o' accurac! )see e#g# 719, 16, 1@, 1A, 9@:*# The in estigation o' nonlinearities in time series data is important to macro?economic theor! as (ell as 'orecasting, as illustrated, in seminal (ork b! 0rock and ;ommes 78:, or 0arnett, Medio and Serletis 79:# ,ecentl!, man! studies ha e applied NN models to macroeconomic time series, particularl! on the modeling and 'orecasting in'lation# Some paper about in'lation 'orecasting b! using NN can be 'ound in 711, &1, &9, &6, &@, &A, 9&:# This paper discusses and in estigates the use'ulness o' >>NN 'or 'orecasting in'lation in Indonesia and the e''ecti eness o' linearit! test, that is .hite test, 'or in'lation modeling# T(o main issues about the e''ect o' increasing 'uel price )also kno(n as 00M* and Islamic 1alendar e''ects )price tend to increase during ,amadhan and the 2ids holida!* to the in'lation 'luctuation are also studied# >inall!, a comparison is dra(n bet(een >>NN model and the best e/isting models based on traditional econometrics time series approach#

2. Inflation orecastin!
The in estigation about 'orecasting in'lation in a speci'ic countr! has been recei ed a great attention 'or man! macroeconomics researchers# >or most central banks, in'lation is at least one monetar! polic! objecti e# Gi en t!pical time lags, monetar! polic! needs to be concerned (ith 'uture in'lation# 1urrent in'lation le els, (hich are themsel es the result o' past policies, ma! pro ide onl! insu''icient in'ormation# In'lation 'orecasts that link 'uture in'lation to current de elopments can bridge this gap# This paper attempts to de elop an in'lation 'orecasting model 'or Indonesia that could ser e as input 'or polic! setting b! the 0ank Indonesia )0I*# Moshiri and 1ameron 7&6: did a comparison stud! bet(een NN and econometrics models 'or 'orecasting in'lation in 1anada# Stock and .atson 7&A: and 1hen, ,acine and S(anson 714: ha e studied NN 'or 'orecasting in'lation in US+# Babundi, Marais and Gre!ling 7&4: ha e discussed and

The impact of linearity test on the forecasting inflation in Indonesia

compared bet(een NN and econometrics models 'or 'orecasting in'lation in South +'rica# McNelis and Mc+dam 7&9: also ha e studied about 'orecasting in'lation in US+, Capan and some 2urope countries b! using DThick ModelE and NN# In Indonesia, modeling in'lation has been studied b! +rie' 7&:, +nglingkusumo 71:, and also b! Suhartono, Subanar and Guritno 79&:# +rie' 79: used econometrics approach b! implementing three models$ Meiselman model, +nderson?Barnosk! model, and 1ausal model de eloped b! ;siao# +nglingkusumo 71: implemented P?star model 'or monetar! anal!sis o' in'lation# Suhartono, Subanar and Guritno 79&: appl! >>NN based on +,IM+ and +,IM+- model 'or in'lation 'orecasting#

2.1. "conometrics #ime Series A$$roach

Modeling and 'orecasting in'lation b! using econometrics time series approach is usuall! used b! man! researchers in man! decades, especiall! compared to the used o' NN model# In this section, (e (ill gi e a brie' re ie( o' some 'orecasting models 'rom econometrics time series approach that used in this paper, particularl! Inter ention +nal!sis and 1alendar Fariation Model or +,IM+- model#

2.1.1. Inter%ention Analysis Model

Inter ention anal!sis model is a time series method that usuall! used to e/plain the e''ect o' e/ternal and internal 'actors to the time series data# Some papers about the application o' inter ention anal!sis model can be 'ound in 76, A, 19, &&, &5, 94, 91:# The general class o' inter ention anal!sis models can be (ritten asG )see e#g# 7@: and 796:*
Yt =

q ) B *Q ) B s * s ) B * b B It + at r ) B* p ) B * P ) B s *

)1*

(here b is the time dela! 'or the inter ention e''ect and It is inter ention ariable#

2.1.2. Calendar &ariation Model

1alendar ariation e''ects model (as originall! gi en b! 0ell and ;illmer 75:# Suhartono and Sampurno 7&8: studied the e''ect o' 2ids holida! )as Islamic calendar e''ects* to the increasing number o' train and plane

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passengers at Cakarta?Suraba!a route b! using calendar ariation model# This approach also used b! 0okil and Schimmelp'ennig 73: 'or 'orecasting in'lation in Pakistan# In general, the calendar ariation model can be (ritten as )see 711:*
Yt = 1C t +

q ) B *Q ) B s * p ) B * P ) B s *

at

)&*

(here 1 is the e''ect magnitude o' calendar ariation ariable and Ct is calendar ariation ariable#

2.2.

eedforward 'eural 'etwor(

Neural net(orks )NN* are a class o' 'le/ible nonlinear models that can disco er patterns adapti el! 'rom the data# Theoreticall!, it has been sho(n that gi en an appropriate number o' nonlinear processing units, NN can learn 'rom e/perience and estimate an! comple/ 'unctional relationship (ith high accurac!# 2mpiricall!, numerous success'ul applications ha e established their role 'or pattern recognition and time series 'orecasting# >eed'or(ard Neural Net(orks )>>NN* is the most popular NN models 'or time series 'orecasting applications# >igure 1 sho(s a t!pical three?la!er >>NN used 'or 'orecasting purposes# The input nodes are the pre ious lagged obser ations, (hile the output pro ides the 'orecast 'or the 'uture alues# ;idden nodes (ith appropriate nonlinear trans'er 'unctions are used to process the in'ormation recei ed b! the input nodes# The model o' >>NN in 'igure 1 can be (ritten as
q p yt = 4 + j f ij y t i + oj + t , j =1 i =1

)9*

(here p is the number o' input nodes, q is the number o' hidden nodes, f is a sigmoid trans'er 'unction such as the logisticG
f ) x* = 1 1 + e x

)5*

I j , j = 4,1, , qH is a ector o' (eights 'rom the hidden and I ij , i = 4,1, , p$ j =1,&, , qH are (eights 'rom the

to output nodes input to hidden nodes# Note that eJuation )9* indicates a linear trans'er 'unction is emplo!ed in the output node# >unctionall!, the >>NN e/pressed in eJuation )9* is eJui alent to a nonlinear +, model# This simple structure o' the net(ork model has been sho(n to be capable o' appro/imating arbitrar! 'unction )see e#g# 71&, 15,

The impact of linearity test on the forecasting inflation in Indonesia

13, 1@, 9@:*# ;o(e er, 'e( practical guidelines e/ist 'or building a >>NN 'or a time series, particularl! the speci'ication o' >>NN architecture in terms o' the number o' input and hidden nodes is not an eas! task#

ij

j
Output Layer (Dependent Var.

Input Layer (!ag Dependent Var. Hi en Layer (" unit neurons

Mt y

i!ure 1# +rchitecture o' neural net(ork model (ith single hidden la!er

). #he *a!ran!e Multi$lier ty$e *inearity test usin! +andom Sam$lin!

The neural net(ork test in .hite 793: and Kee, .hite, and Granger 7&1: is a test o' linearit! against nonlinear model,
yt = wt + j I ) j wt * 1 H + ut , &
j =1 q

)6*

L * , u t L nid )4, & * , wt = )1, w (here t = )4 ,1 , ,p *, L L * = ) 4 , , = ) 1 , , p * , and

) wt * = I1 + e/p) wt *H1 1 & #

L = ) y , , y * w , t t 1 tp

)3* The null h!pothesis is

SU;+,T<N<, SU0+N+, +ND SU,=< GU,ITN<

H 4 G 1 = & = = q = 4 #

)@*

dra(ing them randoml! 'rom a 'easible distributionG .hite 793: and .hite, and Granger 7&1: used a uni'orm distribution# 0ecause the ariables ) j wt * ma! be hea il! correlated, these authors applied a principal component trans'ormation to
wt *, , ) q wt *: t = 7 ) 1

1 , , q so that the alues o' ) j wt * can be computed# This is done b!

The identi'ication problem is sol ed b! 'i/ing the alues o' ectors

and included t(o principal components orthogonal to the linear part o' the model in the au/iliar! regression 'or testing linearit!# + practical (a! o' carr!ing out this KM linearit! test can be 'ound in 7&1, 93:#

,. +esearch Methodolo!y
The purpose o' this research is to pro ide empirical e idence on the comparati e stud! bet(een >>NN and traditional econometrics time series model 'or 'orecasting in'lation in Indonesia# The major research Juestions (e in estigate areG )i*# Does >>NN ha e a better result on the accurac! 'or 'orecasting in'lation in Indonesia than traditional econometrics time series modelN )ii*# ;o( the impact o' linearit! test on the NN modeling 'or 'orecasting in'lation in IndonesiaN

-ata
The Indonesian in'lation data that used in this empirical stud! contain @3 month obser ations, started in Canuar! 1888 and ended in +pril &446# The 'irst @& data obser ations are used 'or model selection and parameter estimation )training data in term o' NN model* and the last 5 points are reser ed as the test 'or 'orecasting e aluation and comparison )testing data*# >igure & plots representati e time series o' this data# It is clear that the series has a stationar! condition (ith little seasonal ariations#

+esearch -esi!n
In this research, to determine the best model, an e/periment is conducted (ith the basic cross alidation method# The a ailable training data is used to estimate the parameters )(eights* 'or an! speci'ic model# The

The impact of linearity test on the forecasting inflation in Indonesia

testing set is the used to select the best model among all models considered# In this stud!, the number o' hidden nodes 'or >>NN model aries 'rom 1 to 3 (ith an increment o' 1#

i!ure 2# Time series plot o' the Indonesian in'lation, Canuar! 1888 O +pril &446 The >>NN model used in this empirical stud! is the standard >>NN (ith single?hidden?la!er sho(n in >igure 1# The initial alue is set to random (ith replications in each model to increase the chance o' getting the global minimum# .e did not use the standard data preprocessing in NN b! trans'orm data to 7?1,1: and N)4,1* scale, because data in'lation aries around 4# The per'ormance o' in?sample 'it and out?sample 'orecast is judged b! the commonl! used error measures# The! are the mean sJuared error )MS2* and the root mean sJuare error ),MS2*#

.. "m$irical +esults
In this section the empirical results 'or 1ombination Inter ention and Fariation 1alendar )'or simplicit! (e (rite +,IM+-* and >>NN models are presented and discussed#

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..1. +esults of A+IMA/ Model

Table 1 sho(s the results o' three +,IM+- models that satis'! adeJuate model b! testing parameter model and diagnostic check o' residual model# >rom table 1, (e can conclude that inter ention ariable and Islamic calendar signi'icantl! in'luence the increasing o' 'orecast accurac!, particularl! in out?sample 'orecast# These three models contain the e''ect o' increasing 00M price and Islamic calendar to in'lation data plus +,IM+ model 'or the errors$ those are +,IM+)4,4,71,1&:*, +,IM+)4,4,1*)4,4,1*1& and +,IM+)1,4,4*)4,4,1*1& 'or model 1, & and 9 respecti el!# >or e/ample, model 1 can be (ritten as yt = 4#5643 + 4#AA663 I t + 4#A6395C t + )1 + 4#6111B + 4#&8@3 B1& *at )A* (here I t is inter ention ariable )increasing o' 00M price*, C t is Islamic calendar ariable and B is backshi't operator# This model sho(s that increasing o' 00M and Islamic calendar ha e positi e e''ect to in'lation in Indonesia# #able 1# The results o' +,IM+- models, both in training and testing data
MSE M! e" #odel 1 #odel 2 #odel * Trainin# ata $.2%&2&1&' $.2(&*+2&* $.2(*)(1%$ Te$tin# ata $.2%(&$2 $.2+$'2+ $.*1(*$* RMSE Trainin# ata $.)*)$*+ $.)++*'+ $.)+1%+1 Te$tin# ata $.)*%1+' $.+($&*& $.)&)$&(

..2. +esults of

'' Model

In this paper, building process 'or >>NN model particularl! determination o' inputs are based on the inputs o' +,IM+ and +,IM+models# Table & summariPes the results o' >>NN 'orecasting (ith input lags based on +,IM+ and +,IM+- models# The results sho( that the more comple/ o' >>NN architecture )it means the more number o' unit nodes in hidden la!er* al(a!s !ields better result in training data, but the opposite result happened in testing data# Moreo er, >>NN models (ith input lags based on +,IM+- model gi e

The impact of linearity test on the forecasting inflation in Indonesia

better 'orecast than based on +,IM+ model# It can be clearl! seen 'rom the reduction o' MS2 and ,MS2 particularl! in testing data# #able 2# The results o' >>NN models, both in training and testing data
#odel Input lags 1,12 ,umber of neurons 1 2 * + ) 1 2 * + ) Training data #S$.222(&+ 1 $.2$+$)2 % $.1+((&% * $.1*&&'& ) $.121$%$ % $.2()$($ ) $.1)*11% ' $.1+'1'2 + $.22$2$& $ $.122+%) 2 .#S$.+'21(1 $.+)1'22 $.*%'2)' $.*&(&(% $.*+'(&' $.)+*222 $.*(1*$+ $.*%*&*1 $.+&(2&1 $.*+(('( Testing data #S$.*&'$%$ ' $.*122+% % $.2&$12+ $ $.22&1$$ 1 $.2('*%) & $.*+&1*+ 2 $.*&$*+2 2 $.+$&+2( ' $.*21$'2 % $.)+'&1* ( .#S$.&$)%' 2 $.))%'( 2 $.)1$$2 + $.+'))$ $ $.)+)** 1 $.)%%** 2 $.&$$2% ) $.&*')1 % $.)&&&* * $.'+$$$ (

//,, 0ith input lags based on 1.I#12

It

Ct

1,11,12

It

Ct

..). +esults of Com$arison Study

.e concentrate on the d!namic 'orecasts )testing data* to choice the best model 'or 'orecasting in'lation in Indonesia# The comparison stud! uses MS2 testing data o' the best model in each approach and also ratio o' 'orecast errors o' each model to the 'orecast error o' the >>NN model (ith lags input based on +,IM+- model# The results are presented in table 9# #able ). Summar! o' D!namic >orecasting Per'ormance 1omparison
3est #odel 1.I#12 //,, 0ith input based on 1.I#12 #S(testing data $.2+$'2+$ $.22&1$$1 .atio #S- (to //,, based on 1.I#12 1.$' 1.$$

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14

In table 9, numbers greater than one on the ratio column indicate poorer 'orecast per'ormance than comparable >>NN (ith inputs based on +,IM+- model and ice ersa 'or numbers less than one# 0ased on the result at this table, (e can conclude that >>NN (ith inputs based on +,IM+- model, that is input lags 1, 1&, I t , C t and 5 unit neurons in hidden la!er, gi es the best d!namic 'orecast )testing data* 'or in'lation data# The results also sho( that the 'orecast accurac! o' +,IM+- model is closel! (ith the result o' >>NN (ith input based on +,IM+-#

..,. +esults of *inearity #est by a$$lyin! 0hite #est

.e appl! .hite test to in estigate (hether the nonlinear model should be used 'or modeling this data# The result is presented in table 5 and sho(s that the p? alue is greater than 4,46# It means (e 'ail to reject the null h!pothesis and conclude that nonlinear model is not needed 'or in'lation modeling (ith increasing 'uel price )also kno(n as 00M* and Islamic 1alendar e''ects )price tend to increase during ,amadhan and the 2ids holida!* as predictors# ;ence, this result is a reasoning to e/plain (h! the 'orecast accurac! o' >>NN (ith input based on +,IM+- closel! to the result o' +,IM+- model# #able ,. The results o' Kinearit! Test b! appl!ing .hite test
Input "a#$ !ag 1, 124 I t 4 C t !ag 1, 11, 124 I t 4 Ba$e F $.*1(% 1.$$2( !n F%te$t p%&a"ue $.'2'' $.*'*' Ba$e !n & %te$t p%&a"ue $.&)+) $.+$1+

&
$.%+'( 1.%2)&

Ct

1. Conclusions
0ased on the results at the pre ious section, (e can conclude that the NN (ith inputs such as +,IM+- model gi es slightl! better result 'or 'orecasting in'lation in Indonesia than +,IM+- model# <ur result based on the linearit! test sho(s that nonlinear model, as NN, is statisticall! not needed 'or in'lation modeling# ;ence, this result is a reason to e/plain (h! the 'orecast accurac! o' >>NN (ith input based on +,IM+- closel! to the

The impact of linearity test on the forecasting inflation in Indonesia

11

result o' +,IM+- model# In general, the results sho( that appl!ing linearit! test is an important step be'ore using some nonlinear time series models#

+eferences
71: +nglingkusumo, ,# )&446*, Mo ey ! I flatio "exus i I do esia# $%ide ce for& a P'(tar ) alysis, Timbergen Inst# Discussion Paper, TI &446?465Q5# 7&: +rie', S# )1886*, ) $co o&etric (tudy o the *elati%e $ffecti%e ess of Mo etary a d +iscal Policies i I do esia, UGM, Indonesia# 79: 0arnett, .#+#, +# Medio and +# Serletis )&449*, "o li ear a d Co&plex ,y a&ics i $co o&ics, .orking Paper# 75: 0ell, .#,# and S# ;illmer )18A9*, Modeling time series (ith calendar ariation, -. of )&erica (tat. )ssociatio , 23, 6&3?695# 76: 0hattachar!a, M#N and +#P# Ka!ton )18@8*, 2''ecti eness o' Seat 0elt Kegislation on Rueensland ,oad TollG +n +ustralian 1ase Stud! in Inter ention +nal!sis, -. of )&erica (tat. )ssociatio , 2,, pp#93@# 73: 0okil, M# and +# Schimmelp'ennig )&446*, Three )tte&pts at I flatio +orecasti / i Pakista , IM> .orking Paper, .PQ46Q146# 7@: 0o/, G#2#P#, G#M# Cenkins and G#1# ,einsel )1885*, Ti&e (eries ) alysis0 +orecasti / a d Co trol0 9rd edition, 2ngle(ood 1li''sG Prentice ;all# 7A: 0o/, G#2#P and 1#G# Tiao )18@6*, Inter ention +nal!sis (ith +pplications to 2conomic and 2n ironmental Problems, -our al of )&erica (tatistics )ssociatio , 20, pp# @4?@8# 78: 0rock, .#+# and 1#;# ;ommes )188@*, + ,ational ,oute to ,andomness, $co o&etrica0 1., 1468?1486# 714: 1hen, -#, C# ,acine and N#,# S(anson )&441*, (e&ipara&etric )*1 "eural "etwork Models with a )pplicatio to +orecasti / I flatio , .orking Paper, 2conomics Department, ,utgers Uni ersit!# 711: 1r!er, C#D# )18A3*, Ti&e (eries ) alysis, 0ostonG Publishing 1ompan!# 71&: 1!benko, G# )18A8*, +ppro/imation b! superpositions o' a sigmoidal 'unction# Mathematics o' 1ontrol, (i/ als a d (yste&s, 2, 945O915#

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1&

719: 2nders, .#, T# Sandler and C# 1aule! )1884*, +ssessing the Impact o' Terrorist Th(arting PoliciesG +n Inter ention Time Series +pproach, ,efe se $co o&ics0 2, 1?1A# 715: >unahashi, B# )18A8*, <n the appro/imate realiPation o' continuous mappings b! neural net(orks, "eural "etworks, 2, 1A9O18&# 716: ;amid, S#+# and S# IJbal )&445*, Using neural net(orks 'or 'orecasting olatilit! o' STP 644 Inde/ 'utures prices, -our al of Busi ess *esearch0 .2, pg# 111311&6# 713: ;ornik, B#, M# Stinchombe and ;# .hite )18A8*, Multila!er 'eed'or(ard net(orks are uni ersal appro/imators, "eural "etworks, 2, 968O933# 71@: ;ornik, B#, M# Stinchombe and ;# .hite )1884*, Uni ersal appro/imation o' an unkno(n mapping and its deri ati es using multila!er 'eed'or(ard net(orks, "eural "etworks, ), pp# 661O634# 71A: Baashoek, C# >#, and ;#B# Fan Dijk )&441*, "eural "etworks as $co o&etric Tool, ,eport 2I &441O46, 2con# Inst# 2rasmus Uni # ,otterdam# 718: Baashoek, C#># and Fan Dijk, ;#B# )&44&*, Neural Net(ork Pruning +pplied to ,eal 2/change ,ate +nal!sis, -our al of +orecasti /, 21, pp# 668O6@@# 7&4: Babundi, +#N#, D#C# Marais and K# Gre!ling )&449*, +orecasti / (outh )frica I flatio # "eural "etworks 2ersus $co o&etric Models , ,esearch Paper, Depart# o' 2conomics, ,and +'rikaans Uni ersit!# 7&1: Kee, T#?;#, ;# .hite and 1#.#C# Granger )1889*# Testing 'or Neglected Nonlinearit! in Time Series ModelsG + comparison o' Neural Net(ork methods and alternati e test# -our al of $co o&etrics, 63, pp# &38?&84# 7&&: Keonard, M# )&441*, Pro&otio al ) alysis a d +orecasti / for ,e&a d Pla i /# ) Practical Ti&e (eries )pproach, 1ar!, N1, US+ G S+S Inst# Inc# 7&9: McNelis, P# and P# Mc+dam )&445*, +orecasti / I flatio with Thick Models a d "eural "etworks, .orking Paper Series, No# 96&, 2uropean 1entral 0ank# 7&5: Montgomer!, D#1# and G# .eatherb! )18A4*, Modeling and >orecasting Time Series Using Trans'er >unction and Inter ention Methods, )II$ Tra sactio s, pg# &A8?94@#

The impact of linearity test on the forecasting inflation in Indonesia

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7&6: Moshiri, S# and N#2# 1ameron )188@*, "eural "etwork %s. $co o&etric Models i +orecasti / I flatio , .orking Paper, Department o' 2conomics, Uni ersit! o' Manitoba# 7&3: ,e'enes, +#P# and ;# .hite )188A*, Neural Net(orks and >inancial 2conomics, I ter atio al -our al of +orecasti /, 12# 7&@: Stock, C#;# and M#.# .atson )188A*, ) Co&pariso of 3i ear a d "o 'li ear 4 i%ariate Models for +orecasti / Macroeco o&ic Ti&e (eries, N02, .ork Paper 334@# 7&A: Stock, C#;# and M#.# .atson )1888*, >orecasting In'lation, -our al of Mo etary $co o&ics, ,,, pg# &89?996# 7&8: Suhartono and 0#S# Sampurno )&44&*, The 1omparison Stud! bet(een Trans'er >unction and Inter ention?1alendar Fariation Model 'or >orecasting The Number o' Plane and Train Passengers, -ur al Mate&atika atau Pe&belajara ya, Special 2d#, Uni ersitaas Negeri Malang, Indonesia# 794: Suhartono and 2# ;ariroh )&449*, +nal!sis o' The 2''ect o' .T1 Ne( =ork 0omb to The >luctuation o' .orld Stock Market b! Using Inter ention Model, Proceedi / "atio al (e&i ar of Mathe&atics a d (tatistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Indonesia# 791: Suhartono and I#N#+#.#.# Putra )&446*, The 2''ect o' 0ali 0omb to The Number o' ;otel <ccupanc! in 0aliG +n +pplication Stud! o' Inter ention Model 'or Tourism, Proceedi / "atio al Co fere ce Mathe&atics 1II, UD+=+N+, 0ali, Indonesia# 79&: Suhartono, Subanar and S# Guritno )&446*, Modeling o' 'inancial data b! using >eed'or(ard Neural Net(orks, Proceedi / The I ter atio al Co fere ce o applied Mathe&atics 5IC)M678, IT0, 0andung, Indonesia# 799: S(anson, N# ,# and ;# .hite )188@*, + model?selection approach to real?time macroeconomic 'orecasting using linear models and arti'icial neural net(orks, *e%iew of $co o&ic a d (tatistics, 24, 654O664# 795: Fersace, M#, ,# 0hatt, <# ;inds, and M# Shi''er )&445*, Predicting the e/change 'und DI+ (ith a combination o' genetic algorithms and neural net(orks, $xpert (yste&s with )pplicatio s0 22, pg# 51@5&6# 796: .ei, .#.#S# )1884*, Ti&e (eries ) alysis# 4 i%ariate a d Multi%ariate Methods0 +ddison?.esle! Publishing 1o#, US+# 793: .hite, ;# )18A8*# +n additional hidden unit test 'or neglected nonlinearit! in multila!er 'eed'or(ard net(orks# I Proceedi /s of

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The I ter atio al -oi t Co fere ce 9 "eural "etworks, .ashington, D1 )pp# 561?566*# San Diego, 1+G S<S Printing# 79@: .hite, ;# )1884*, 1onnectionist nonparametric regressionG Multila!er 'eed 'or(ard net(orks can learn arbitrar! mapping, "eural "etworks, ), 696O664#