taking pregnancy tests are actually pregnant.

/hat number is closest to the probability of pregnancy You meet a person at the bus stop and strike up a given the positive test! conversation. In the conversation, the person gives &0 the strange answer that at least one of his two "0 children is a girl. Thinking on this, you decide to do$0 a probability calculation. Assuming only that )0 genders are iid with 50 probability each, what is +0 the chance of a two child family having two girls %0 given the information that at least one is a girl! 50 "#$ 20 "#% 30 "#& " Question 4 0 4et 5"657 be independent 8oisson counts with means ti9 for some known value ti. :ecall the Question 2 8oison mass function with mean ; is ;(e<;(= for A web site (>0,",6. /hat is the ma(imum likelihood 'www.medicine.o(.ac.uk#bandolier#band)&#b)&* estimate for 9! +.html, for home pregnancy tests cites the '?k>"7(k,#n following- ./hen the sub0ects using the test were '?k>"7(k,#'?k>"7tk, women who collected and tested their own '?k>"7tk,#'?k>"7(k, samples, the overall sensitivity was +5 . '?k>"7(k,@'?k>"7tk, 1pecificity was also low, in the range 5$ to +5 .. 1uppose a sub0ect has a positive test. Assume the Question 5 lower bound for the specificity. /hat number is closest to the multiplier of the pre*test odds of 1uppose that a person is flipping a biased coin with pregnancy to obtain the post*test odds of pregnancy success probability p. 1he flips the coin "0 times given a positive test result! yielding " head. Aonsider two possibilities- ", the $.5 person planned on flipping the coin ten times and 0 got one head, $, the person planned to flip the coin " until the first head and it took ten times. /hat can ".5 you say about the likelihood in these two $ circumstances! .5 The likelihoods are different 'up to constants of proportionality, depending on which case is true. You canBt calculate a likelihood in setting $. Question 3 The likelihood associated with p is identical 'up to A web site constants of proportionality, in either case. 'www.medicine.o(.ac.uk#bandolier#band)&#b)&* You canBt calculate a likelihood in setting ". +.html, for home pregnancy tests cites the following- ./hen the sub0ects using the test were Question 6 women who collected and tested their own samples, the overall sensitivity was +5 . 4et 5 be a uniform random variable with support 1pecificity was also low, in the range 5$ to +5 ..of length ", but where we donBt know where it Assume the lower value for the specificity. 1upposestarts. 1o that the density is f'(,>" for ('C,CD", a sub0ect has a positive test and that %0 of women and 0 otherwise. /e observe a random variable

Question 1

from this distribution, say (". /hat does the likelihood look like! A horiEontal line between (" and ("<". A parabola. A diagonal line from (" to ("D". A point at (".

Question 7
1uppose that diastolic blood pressures 'FG8s, for men aged %5*&& are normally distributed with a mean of 20 'mm Hg, and a standard deviation of "0. /hat is the probability that a random %5*&& year old has a FG8 less than +0! About ") About $.5 About %& About 50 About " About )2

&& are normally distributed with a mean of 20 'mm Hg, and a standard deviation of "0. /hatBs the probability that in a random sample of 5 sub0ects, & or more have FG8s more than 30! " 50 ") 5 0.$3

Question 11

Aonsider two sample means, 5J" and 5J$ from a the same normal population having mean Eero and standard deviation K. The first sample mean is based on n" observations while the second is based on n$ observations. Take any percentile, say "00@L, for the distribution of sample means based on the two sample siEes e(cluding the median. /hat is the ratio of the two percentiles where it is the percentile of the first group divided by the second! Kn"#n$ Question 8 " Grain volume for adult women is normally n"#n$ distributed with a mean of about ","00 cc for n$#n" women with a standard deviation of +5 cc. About n"#n$ what brain volume represents the 35th percentile! Kn$#n" ""00 cc n$#n" "$50 cc "$$0 cc Question 12 "$00 cc You flip a fair coin 5 times, whatBs the probability of getting & or 5 heads! Question 9 About ) :eturn to the previous Iuestion. Grain volume for About $5 adult women is about ","00 cc for women with a About "3 standard deviation of +5 cc. Aonsider the sample About "" mean of "00 random adult women from this population. Around what is the 35th percentile of Question 13 the distribution of that sample mean! """0 cc The respiratory disturbance inde( ':FI,, a measure "$$% cc of sleep disturbance, for a specific population has a ""%0 cc mean of "5 'sleep events per hour, and a standard """$ cc deviation of "0. They are not normally distributed. Mive your best estimate of the probability that a sample mean :FI of "00 people is between "& and Question 10 ") events per hour! :ecall from an earlier Iuestion. 1uppose that Around 35 diastolic blood pressures 'FG8s, for men aged %5* Around 33

Around 30 Around )2

the standard deviation of the ",000 sample means. About what number would you e(pect it to be! "#"$@",000 "#'"$@"00, Question 14 "#"$@"00 Aonsider a standard uniform density. The mean for " # "$ this density is .5 and the variance is " # "$. You sample ",000 observations from this distribution Question 16 and take the sample mean, what value would you e(pect it to be near! Aonsider a standard uniform density. The mean for "#"$ this density is .5 and the variance is " # "$. You 0.5 sample ",000 sample variances where each sample "#"$@",000 variance is comprised of "00 observations. You "#"$ take the average of the ",000 sample variances. " # "$ /hat number would you e(pect that to be near! "#"$ "#"$ Question 15 "#'"$@",000, Aonsider a standard uniform density. The mean for "#'"$@"00, this density is .5 and the variance is " # "$. You "#"$@",000 sample ",000 sample means where each sample "#"$@"00 mean is comprised of "00 observations. You take