Introduction:Probability is a measure or estimation of how likely it is that something will happen or that a statement is true.

Probabilities give us a quick view on the chances of some event to happen. It gives you, a close estimate in numerical value the most or least possible outcome of a certain process. In laymans term, knowing the probability will greatly help you in making decisions like in risk management analysis. Or even in daily decisions in life. Example, you observed one day that there are dark clouds outside. You asked yourself if you should bring an umbrella. You use your observation of dark clouds and your usual daily routine in deciding. Since in past experiences, dark clouds are early warning signs of a perceived rain, you are most likely to bring an umbrella. Or in a horse race. Example, you are choosing a horse bet. Horse A has a win-loss record of 10-4. Horse B has a slate of 12-2. After evaluation of such, most likely you will pick Horse B. The probability of win for Horse A is 10/12 or 83.33% while Horse B has 12/14 which is 85.71%. In this case graduate wants to get a job in top 10 accounting firms and she has the probability of getting selected in each firm and cost and procedure for applying each company is very high. By using probability she can save her money and get a best job available.

Facts & Figures:Table 1.1 Company Cost ($) Probability 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 870 600 540 500 400 320 300 230 200 170 0.38 0.35 0.28 0.20 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.14 0.08

Analysis:Table 1.2 Company 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost ($) 870 600 540 500 400 320 300 230 200 170 Probability Of Getting Selected 0.38 0.35 0.28 0.20 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.14 0.08 Probability Of Not Getting Selected 0.62 0.65 0.72 0.80 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.86 0.86 0.92 Cost Effectiveness 0.000436782 0.000583333 0.000518519 0.0004 0.00045 0.0005625 0.000566667 0.000608696 0.0007 0.000470588

In the above table I have calculated probability of not getting selected by following formula: Probability of not getting selected = 1- Probability of Getting selected.

And Cost effectiveness is calculated by using following formula:

= Questions:-

Probability Cost

Q.1) If the graduate applies to all 10 companies, what is the probability that she will get at Least one offer?

Probability of at least getting one offer = 1- Probability of getting no offer = 1- 0.08815 = 0.91185

Probability of Getting at least One Offer = 0.91

Thus If Graduate applies to all 10 companies she has 91% probability that she will get at least one offer.

Q.2) If she can apply to only one company, based on cost and success probability criteria Alone, should she apply to company 5? Why or why not"?

Based on the data of Table 1.2 if graduate applies for 5th company, its cost effectiveness is 0.00045. Considering the cost and success it is not best company to apply. Either she should apply to the 9th company which is most cost effective company or she can also apply to company number one if she wants greater chances of success and have enough money to spend. Chart No.1

Cost and Probabiltiy of each company

1000 0.36 900 800 0.31 700

Probability of getting selected

0.26

500 0.21 400 300

0.16

200 100

0.11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Company Cost Probabilty

Cost in Rs.

600

Q.3) If she applies to companies 2, 5, 8 and 9 what is the total cost and what is the probability that she will get at least one offer?
Table 1.3

Company 2 5 8 9 TOTAL

Cost ($) 600 400 230 200 1430

Probability Of Getting Selected 0.35 0.18 0.14 0.14

Probability Of Not Getting Selected 0.65 0.82 0.86 0.86 0.3942068

Probability of at least getting one offer = 1- Probability of getting no offer = 1- 0.3942 = 0.6058 Probability of Getting at least One Offer = 0.61

Q.4) If she wants to be at least one 75% confident of getting at least one offer, to which companies should she apply to minimize the total cost?

Table 1.4

Company 1,2,3,4 2,3,4,5,10,9 9,8,7,6,5,4,3 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3

Probility Of At Least Getting 1 Job 0.767872 0.75709527 0.76224745 0.781267654

Confidence Level 76.78% 75.70% 76.22% 78.12%

Total Cost ($) 2510 2410 2490 2660

Based on the above level graduate should apply for company 2,3,4,5,10 and 9 so that she can get the 75.70% confidence level and total cost is $2410 which is best alternative compared to the others.

Q.5) If she is willing to spend $1,500, to which companies should she apply to maximize her Chances of getting at least one job?

Table 1.5

Company 2,5,4 4,5,7,9 7,8,9,10,2 1,10,9,8 5,6,7,8,9,10 5,6,7,8,9 1,8,5

Total Cost ($) 1500 1400 1500 1470 1620 1450 1500

Probility of Success 0.57 0.53 0.64 0.57 0.62 0.59 0.56

From above table 1.5 it is clear that, if graduate is willing to spend $1500 then she should apply for company number 2, 7, 8, 9 and 10 as this alternative has the highest probility of 0.64 of getting at least one job. Also I have tried different alternatives as shown in table but I found this alternative best as its cost is exactly $1500 and has the highest probability of success.

Conclusion
From this case study I learned that how can I use probability as a tool in my professional life and also learned about how can I use MS Excel for calculating probability.