1

AFGHANISTAN HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2011
Rcscarch Papcr
Iloods and dioughls: The Afghan valei paiadox
}elle eekna and }oel Iiddes
1
The vievs and opinions expiessed in lhis papei aie lhose of lhe aulhois and do nol necessaiily
ieflecl lhose of CIHD.
1
}elle eekna is Ianj-Anu Rivei asin Iiogiannes Tean Ieadei, kunduziiveiyahoo.co.nz and }oel Iiddes is a Ih.D. Reseaichei
of Claciology al lhe Univeisily of Zuiich.
2
1. Abstract
1.1. RatInna!c
Afghanislan is a landlocked nounlainous counliy vilh a clinale lhal can le classified as diy.
The clinale ianges fion aiid in lhe soulh-vesl lo seni-aiid in lhe cenlial, noilh and easl, vilh
sone specific high-nounlain clinales al lhe highei elevalions. Accoiding lo nosl iefeiences,
lhe counliy as a vhole is nol undei valei sliess, vilh annual pei capila valei availalilily fai
alove 1,OOO culic nelies pei capila. This is due lo a ielalively lov populalion densily and
ielalively high piecipilalion in lhe highesl pails of lhe nounlain ianges. The valei availalilily
is unequally disliiluled spalially, as vell as lenpoiaiily. This causes lhe counliy lo suffei fion
lvo ialhei conliaiy lhieals: valei shoilages, oflen causing seiious dioughl, and valei excess,
causing fiequenl desliuclive floods. While lhe counliy has a laige vaiialilily in clinale and
landscape chaiacleiislics and can le hydiologically suldivided inlo five iivei lasins vilh
dislincl chaiacleiislics, nany of lhe issues discussed in lhis papei have a counliyvide leaiing.
Walei scaicily is discussed al lhe iivei lasin scale, vhile piaclical exanples aie given foi lhe
Ianj-Anu iivei lasin.
This papei looks al lhe counliys clinale chaiacleiislics and ils sensilivily lo dioughl and floods
fion vaiious vievpoinls and pioposes nelhods foi lhe developnenl of foiecasling and coping
slialegies. Il also analyses lhe legal and inslilulional fianevoik foi inplenenling such
slialegies.
1.2. Thc InfnrmatInn knnwn
Mosl of lhe piecipilalion in Afghanislan falls in lhe vinlei nonlhs, and snov accunulales in
lhe high nounlains, foining a school exanple of valei loveis. This valei lecones availalle
duiing lhe snov-nell occuiiing fion Apiil lo Augusl in diffeienl pails of lhe counliy and
coincides vilh (pail of) lhe peiiod of highesl valei denand. The accunulalion of nuch of lhe
valei in lhe foin of snov offeis lhe unique oppoilunily ialhei accuialely lo piedicl valei
availalilily and lhe piolalilily of floods and dioughl al lhe leginning of lhe gioving season.
Nev lechnologies such as ienole sensing and conpulei nodelling enalle poinl olseivalions lo
le exliapolaled oi inleipolaled lo aiea-vide values and so significanlly inpiove lhe piediclions
3
of valei availalilily, floods and dioughl. Renole sensing piovides conlinuous neasuienenls
of laigel vaiialles ovei laige aieas, hovevei, giound veiificalion is oflen needed. To dale, lillle
has leen done vilh lhis infoinalion, pailially due lo unceilainly aloul lhe ielialilily of ienole
sensing dala. Theie is a lack of souices foi giound veiificalions lecause of lhe alsence of
syslenalic dala colleclion on vealhei, snov accunulalion and iivei flovs.
The nev Walei Iav conlines nodein pullic nanagenenl piinciples, such as lhe division of
lasks and piivale secloi involvenenl, vilh sound hydiological and enviionnenlal piinciples,
such as inlegialed valei iesouices nanagenenl in iivei lasins and nechanisns foi pullic
pailicipalion in decision-naking. This is an ideal selling foi lhe use of foiecasls in defining
piepaiedness slialegies. The liadilion of local inslilulions in valei nanagenenl inpioves lhe
excellenl polenlial foi lhe pioaclive pailicipaloiy nanagenenl of valei iesouices and lhe
niligalion of foiecasled shocks. Due lo lhe ienoleness of iuial aieas and lhe nullilude of
localions sensilive lo dioughl and floods, pullic pailicipalion in flood and dioughl
piepaiedness and niligalion is essenlial. This is sinply inpossille foi a goveinnenl alone,
hovevei vell iesouiced lo deal vilh all lhe fiequenlly occuiiing ciises.
The conlinalion of infoinalion piovision lo lhe pullic and lhe developnenl of plans and
niligaling and coping slialegies is slill in lhe inilial slages. Thus, Afghanislan is nol yel fully
lenefiling fion lhe unique oppoilunilies lhal naluie and slale luilding offei foi lhe
developnenl of an effeclive pailicipaloiy flood and dioughl piepaiedness slialegy.
1.3. DIscussInn summary, cnnc!usInns and rccnmmcndatInns
Il is highly ieconnended lhal lhe Afghan Coveinnenl and donois joinlly develop a flood and
dioughl eaily vaining, piepaiedness and coping syslen. Such a syslen should le luill on lhe
use and calilialion of salellile-lased eslinales. The syslen should le acconpanied ly an
infoinalion shaiing slialegy using lhe oppoilunily of nev pailicipaloiy inslilulions. These
inslilulions could also foin lhe lasis foi piepaiedness and coping nechanisns. This syslen
could have a lienendous inpacl ly ieducing lhe effecls of iepelilive floods and dioughl. The
cuiienl silualion offeis unique oppoilunilies lo develop such a syslen.
2. IntrnductInn
2.1. Backgrnund
Afghanislan is a nounlainous landlocked counliy localed lelveen 29 and 36 noilh. The
clinale ianges fion aiid in lhe soulh-vesl lo seni-aiid in lhe cenlial, noilh and easl, vilh sone
specific high-nounlain clinales al lhe highei elevalions. The counliy is chaiacleiized ly lhe
fiequenl occuiience of dioughl and floods. Oflen, lhe queslion is posed vhelhei Afghanislan
4
can le classified as valei iich oi valei pooi. One of lhe piollens vilh lhis queslion and olheis
lhal iequiie an exacl ansvei is pooi dala availalilily.
On valei iesouices, lhe availalle dala aie vealhei dala and iivei flov oi hydioneliic dala. The
hydioneliic dala availalle aie fion lhe peiiod lelveen 194O and 1979, and lheie is a conplele
alsence of nev sliucluied dala. Clinale and vealhei dala aie availalle foi lhe sane peiiod.
Hovevei, lheie aie scaice addilional dala lelveen 1979 and 2OO2, nev dala have leen collecled
since 2OO2. The use of lhese nev vealhei dala is liniled since lhey aie inconplele and oflen
difficull lo access. Much of lhe analysis piesenled lhiough lhe Agionel Iiojecl of lhe US
Ceological Suivey (USCS) is lased on aveiage condilions. Allhough useful foi clinale
desciiplions and in indicaling long-lein liends, aveiage condilions aie a ialhei lheoielical
concepl in desciiling vealhei, especially in seni-aiid iegions vheie inlei-annual vaiialilily is
high.
Iloods occui iegulaily in Afghanislan and aie docunenled in a laige nunlei of ailicles in
nevspapeis and on vel pages. Only iecenlly (18 Apiil 2O1O), flash-floods occuiied in aghlan
Iiovince and caused viclins and consideialle naleiial danage (Afgnanis|an Tincs, 21 Apiil
2O1O, UNOCHA 2O1O). Theie is no syslenalic noniloiing syslen, hovevei, and infoinalion on
floods and lheii causes is exlienely pooi lecause no neasuienenls aie leing conducled on
iainfall inlensilies. Iloods iesulling fion high valei accunulalion in lhe nounlains nay le
piedicled and folloved, nonelheless, a nalional dalalase is alsenl.
Theie is a need foi piepaiedness foi dioughl and floods. Specifically, dioughl and giadual
snov-nell floods can le ielalively vell foiecasled foi seasonal planning due lo lhe special
piecipilalion chaiacleiislics in Afghanislan. Mosl of lhe piecipilalion in Afghanislan falls in lhe
vinlei and in lhe foin of snov, vhich accunulales in lhe high nounlains, vhich aie oflen
called valei loveis (foi exanple, see Viviioli el al. 2OO7).
Of Afghanislans valei iesouices, 8O peicenl oiiginale in lhe Hindu Kush Mounlains al
alliludes alove 2,OOO nelies. These iesouices include peinanenl snovfields and glacieis, as
vell as seasonal snovfall, vhich accunulales duiing lhe vinlei nonlhs and nells duiing
spiing and sunnei, lhus suppoiling lhe peiennial flov of all najoi iiveis. Afghanislan is
lheiefoie heavily ielianl on iiiigalion duiing lhe sunnei nonlhs vhen lheie is viilually no
piecipilalion in lhe lovlands lo suppoil agiiculluial pioduclion. These ciyospheiic elenenls
aie highly susceplille lo long-lein clinalic change, as vell as inlei-annual clinalic vaiialion.
Renole sensing can give a good indicalion of lhe changes in snov and ice covei ovei lhe lasl 4O
yeais. Il can also le of gieal value in lhe developnenl of a foiecasl and piepaiedness syslen
lased on snov covei and snov-valei equivalenl (SWL) eslinales. Infoinalion flov lo lhe
pullic and lhe developnenl of self-help slialegies and pailicipaloiy planning foi piepaiedness
vill le of gieal inpoilance in effeclively eslallishing and iesponding lo lhe foiecasls.
3
Apail fion seasonal, shoil-lein planning, lheie is a need foi long-lein planning of dioughl
and flood piepaiedness. A long-lein dioughl and flood conliol plan should include conliol of
iivei flov lhiough laige and nediun sloiage dans, as vell as calchnenl pioleclion and valei
haivesling lechniques, all lhese conliol neasuies aie videly ieconnended (foi exanple, see
hallachaiya el al. 2OO4, Liiyagana el al. 2OO9).
The alilily lo noniloi lolh lhe exlenl of snov covei and lhe lining of deplelion is invalualle in
piedicling flood fiequency and inlensily and lhe expecled sunnei dioughl lefoie lhe vinlei
iains. The use of salellile sensois and lhe inleipielalion of lhe dala using ienole sensing lools
piovide a suilalle plalfoin foi noniloiing enviionnenlal vaiialilily al high spalial and
lenpoial iesolulions. This is especially useful in counliies such as Afghanislan vheie lhe
videspiead lack of secuiily iesliicl lhe colleclion of field dala.
The vulneialilily of Afghanislans valei iesouices vas denonslialed al lhe nalional level, vilh
disaslious consequences, in 1999-2OO1, vhen lelov aveiage piecipilalion, conlined vilh nild
vinleis, iesulled in significanl decieases in snovfall. Moieovei, incieases in lhe daily lov
lenpeialuie caused eaily and acceleialed snov-nell in lhe Hindu Kush. This iesulled in a
sulslanlial deciease in lhe valei availalle foi ciucial iiiigaled ciops ovei lhe sunnei nonlhs
(IAO and WII 2OO4). The liend is expecled lo conlinue. In lhe couise of lhe 21sl Cenluiy, valei
supplies sloied in glacieis and snov covei aie piojecled lo decline, ieducing valei availalilily
in nany iegions supplied ly nell valei fion najoi nounlain ianges (Chiislensen and
Hevilson 2OO7).
Walei ciises occui in nany counliies. The ciisis in valei nanagenenl is geneially consideied a
ciisis of goveinance (Woild Walei Ioiun 2OO6). The nev Walei Iav in Afghanislan foins an
excellenl enalling enviionnenl foi good valei goveinance (Gazc||c 98O, Apiil 2OO9). In ils fiisl
ailicle, lhe lav iecognizes lhe need foi econonic developnenl, social equily and enviionnenlal
inlegiily. The lav is lased on inlegialed valei iesouices nanagenenl. Il uses iivei lasins as
lhe lasic nanagenenl unil and idenlifies inslilulions lhal aie lo pailicipale in opeialions and
nainlenance, syslen developnenl and decision-naking. Walei useis can foin valei usei
associalions and can le iepiesenled in iivei lasin and sul-iivei lasin councils, vhich aie
enpoveied in decision-naking aflei an inilial capacily-luilding peiiod.
Conlining lhe possilililies of ienole sensing and olhei nev lechniques vilh a good
infoinalion slialegy and pailicipalion in decision-naking, lhis iepiesenls a lienendous
oppoilunily foi good valei goveinance. This good valei goveinance has lhe polenlial lo pave
lhe vay foi piepaiedness foi efficienl flood and dioughl inpacl niligalion lhiough lhe ciealion
of valei sloiage facililies al vaiious scales and incieased valei use efficiency, denand
nanagenenl, lhe shaiing of valei and iesponsilililies, and iesponsille decision-naking. This
vould include clinale change piepaiedness.
2.2. LItcraturc rcvIcw
6
Walei is a piecondilion foi life and lheiefoie one of lhe nosl piecious iesouices, especially in
lhe diiei iegions of lhe eailh, vhich aie geneially found lelveen 2O and 35 noilh and soulh of
lhe equaloi. Due lo iapid populalion giovlh, conlined vilh econonic developnenl, lhe
piessuie on valei iesouices has incieased iapidly ovei lhe lasl cenluiy and is acceleialing
(Michel and Iandya 2OO9). The iesull is fieice conpelilion ovei valei acioss vaiious seclois in
sociely, adninislialive unils and counliies.
To classify Afghanislan as a valei-scaice oi valei-iich counliy is nol an easy lask. Theie is
consideialle vaiialion in lhe lileialuie on hov lo classify valei scaicily, and lhe dala
availalilily in Afghanislan is pooi.
Consideialle allenlion has leen paid lo classifying valei availalilily and dioughl seveiily in
iegions, counliies, oi iivei lasins and sul-iivei lasins (foi exanple, see Snakhlin el al. 2OO4,
Thenkalail el al. 2OO4, Visnaily el al. 2OOO, 2OO5). Hovevei, il is nol all lhal sliaighlfoivaid
lo deleinine if valei is liuly scaice (a supply piollen), oi should le used noie efficienlly (a
denand piollen) (Rijsleinan 2OO6).
One of lhe nosl sliaighlfoivaid and connon indicalois is lhe valei sliess index of
Ialkennaik el al. (1989), oflen iefeiied lo as lhe Ialkennaik indicaloi. This indicaloi is lased
on annual valei availalilily pei capila as an index and dislinguishes foui classes, as follovs: (1)
no sliess foi valei availalilily pei capila: giealei lhan 1,7OO culic nelies pei capila, (2)
nodeiale sliess: lelveen 1,7OO and 1,OOO culic nelies pei capila, (3) valei scaicily: less lhan
1,OOO culic nelies pei capila, and (4) alsolule scaicily: less lhan 5OO culic nelies pei capila.
Yang el al. (2OO3) conclude lhal lheie is a lhieshold of aloul 1,5OO culic nelies pei capila pei
yeai lelov vhich a counliys ceieal inpoils lecone sliongly inveisely coiielaled vilh
ienevalle valei iesouices. Snakhlin el al. (2OO4) use enviionnenlal flovs as a lasis. In lhis
peispeclive, Afghanislan vould le consideied valei scaice.
Hunan Dctc|cpncn| Rcpcr| 2006 (UNDI 2OO6), vhich focuses on lhe glolal valei ciisis, uses lhe
Ialkennaik indicaloi of 1,7OO culic nelies pei capila as lhe lhieshold value foi valei sliess. Il
adnils, hovevei, lhal lhis is an aililiaiy value. The iepoil also uses a social nininun of fiesh
valei consunplion, vhich il defines as 2O lilies pei peison pei day foi all uses. An aveiage
consunplion of 5O lilies pei peison pei day foi all uses is laken as lhe lhieshold value lelov
vhich a counliy is consideied lo le expeiiencing valei poveily. Hov nuch valei vill le
needed pei peison pei day in coning decades is nol a fixed nunlei, lul depends on a nyiiad
of policy and peisonal choices. This is lhe ieason quanlifying valei scaicily is such a
conplicaled nallei (Rijsleinan 2OO6). In lhis papei, foi lhe sake of sinplicily, ve use lhe
Ialkennaik classificalion lecause il includes lhe valei iequiienenls foi households,
agiiculluie, eneigy and lhe enviionnenl.
Theie is also lhe phenonenon of dioughl in Afghanislan. Dioughl is nol iesliicled lo aiid,
seni-aiid, oi valei-scaice aieas only, lul occuis in all clinales peiiodically. Il slails vilh a lack
7
of piecipilalion, lul can have effecls on sliean-flov, soil noisluie and gioundvalei. Il is
geneially a slov piocess and difficull lo delecl (Liiyagana el al. 2OO9). Dioughl evenls evolve
slovly, and lheii inpacls geneially span a long peiiod (Cancellieie el al. 2OO7). Theiefoie, il is
inpoilanl lo develop a iolusl dioughl noniloiing and foiecasling syslen, conducl evalualions
of lhe inpacls and lhe duialion of dioughl and ielale lhis lo chaiacleiislics of dioughl evenls
such as duialion and nagnilude. The nagnilude seens lo le noie inpoilanl lhan lhe duialion
of lhe dioughl peiiod (Liiyagana el al. 2OO9).
Vaiious lypes of dioughl~neleoiological, hydiological and agiiculluial~have leen
dislinguished. Hovevei, all souices geneially agiee lhal counliies vilh veak econonic
sliucluie, ielianl nainly on agiiculluie, aie noie inpacled ly dioughl lhan econonically noie
diveisified counliies. Accoiding lo lhe Nalional Dioughl Miligalion Cenlei (NDMC 2OO6),
neleoiological dioughl iefeis lo degiee of diyness undei condilions of less lhan noinal
piecipilalion, agiiculluial dioughl ielales lo lhe inpacl of ieduced piecipilalion oi sliean-flov
on agiiculluie and hydiological dioughl iefeis lo ieduced sliean-flov oi gioundvalei
availalilily as a iesull of ieduced piecipilalion.
Thenkalail el al. (2OO4) piesenl a dioughl foiecasling nelhod foi soulhein Asia, including
Afghanislan. Theii dioughl assessnenl sludy is lased on ienole sensing and ains al dioughl
piepaiedness. Ciound veiificalion foi lheii dala vas nainly lased on dala fion veslein India
and Iakislan. They denonsliale lhal dioughl in India could have leen foiecasled seveial
nonlhs eailiei using ienole sensing ialhei lhan convenlional nelhods alone.
Liiyagana el al. (2OO9) have conducled a voildvide sludy on dioughl inpacl lhal is also
laigely lased on ienole sensing and pullicly availalle dala. They conclude lhal agiiculluial
econonies, such as Afghanislan, aie nuch noie vulneialle lo dioughl lhan olhei econonies.
They also poinl lo lhe dangei of dioughl niligalion slialegies lhal iely on suiface valei only.
Many dioughl indicalois aie lased on lhe slalislical analysis of iainfall dala, lov iainfall is
oflen folloved ly lov flovs in iiveis, vilh a line lag of seveial veeks. This line lag nakes
dioughl noniloiing inpoilanl and offeis oppoilunilies lo foiecasl dioughl inpacl. The
indicalois nosl videly used foi lhe analysis of iainfall dala aie lhe slandaid piecipilalion
indices, vhich expiess lhe seveiily of dioughl. Thiough lhe use of slalislical lechniques,
foiecasls can lhen le nade on dioughl inpacls (Cancellieie el al. 2OO7). Anolhei fiequenlly
used nelhod foi dioughl classificalion is lhe Ialnei indices, vhich also piovide valualle
foiecasls of dioughl inpacls (Vasiliades and Ioukas 2OO9).
Hovevei, in Afghanislan, lhe availalilily of iainfall dala and lhe densily of iainfall slalions aie
loo lov foi lhe peifoinance of such analyses. Theiefoie, dala could possilly le supplenenled
ly salellile-lased iainfall eslinales (RILs). Theie vill need lo le calilialion of lhe iainfall dala
lo lhe RILs, vhich can le cunleisone. Ioi exanple, Ailan el al. (2OO7) nenlion lhal lheie is
only good coiiespondence lelveen lhe lvo dala souices if lhe dala aie accunulaled on a
nonlhly lasis. Daily dala do nol shov a good coiielalion.
8
Afghanislan is nol only suljecl lo iegulai dioughl, il also expeiiences inlense floods. Theie aie
lvo lypes of floods occuiiing in Afghanislan, flash-floods and giadual floods due lo iising
iiveis. A flash-flood is desciiled as a flood lhal iises and falls quile iapidly vilh lillle oi no
advance vaining, usually as a iesull of inlense iainfall ovei a ielalively snall aiea (Colonlo el
al. 2OO2: 1). Infoinalion on lhe inpacl of floods voildvide is availalle lhiough lhe Disaslei
Risk Index of lhe Uniled Nalions Developnenl Iiogianne and lhe Naluial Disaslei Holspols
Iiojecl of lhe Woild ank (UNDI 2OO4, Dilley el al. 2OO5). The lallei piojecl uses noilalily and
econonic loss as indicalois of lhe seveiily of eailhquakes, volcano eiuplions, landslides, floods
and dioughl.
As vilh dioughl, flood piediclions aie also incieasingly leing nade on lhe lasis of ienole
sensing dala. Veidin el al. (2OO5) desciile a nelhod using inageiy of lhe US Nalional Oceanic
and Alnospheiic Adninislialion and lhe iesulling RILs lo develop iivei lasin excess iainfall
naps, vhich aie applied lo foiecasl floods and iivei flovs. Asanle el al. (2OO7) and Ailan el al.
(2OO7) shov lhe polenlial of ienole sensing and lhe geospalial sliean-flov nodel foi flood
foiecasling in soulhein Afiica, Lgypl and Soulh-Lasl Asia. Ailan el al. (2OO7) vain lhal
appiopiiale calilialion is needed.
The nosl conplele sel of flood and flood-ielaled dala aie nainlained lhiough lhe Dailnoulh
Ilood Olseivaloiy, an inleiaclive dalalase and nap (see
hllp://floodolseivaloiy.coloiado.edu/index.hlnl). Associaled vilh lhe dalalase aie
algoiilhns lo conveil speclial dala fion ienole sensing lo flov dala on iiveis.
Snov and Ice accounl foi 8O peicenl of Afghanislans valei iesouices. Renole sensing can le
used effeclively lo noniloi liends in snov and ice. Cuiienl glaciei suiveys nake use of high-
iesolulion salellile inageiy such as Iandsal and lhe Advanced Spaceloine Theinal Lnission
and Refleclion Radionelei, logelhei vilh lopogiaphical paianeleis, lo delinil glacieis. Clolal
piogiannes such as lhe Clolal Iand Ice Measuienenls fion Space Iiojecl and lhe Woild
Claciei Moniloiing Seivice aie docunenling lhe exlenl of glolal land ice and noniloiing
changes due lo iecenl vaining liends (ishop el al. 2OO4, Haeleili el al. 2OO2).
Clacieis have leen sludied in Afghanislan since al leasl lhe nid-197Os, vhen }ack Shiodei al lhe
Univeisily of Neliaska legan syslenalically invenloiying and noniloiing changes in lhe
glacieis of Afghanislan using Iandsal inageiy and Russian lopogiaphic naps. This voik has
leen conlinued in lhe pasl decade ly USCS.
Anong lhe glacieis and aieas lhal have leen lhe suljecl of delailed invesligalions aie lhe laige
deliis-coveied, ieliealing Noilh and Soulh Issik and Zeneslan Clacieis of lhe cenlial Wakhan
aiea in lhe Ianii Mounlains, lhe snall ieliealing ciique and valley glacieis of lhe Koh-i-ala
Range localed vesl of Kalul, lhe ieliealing, deliis-coveied Keshnikhan Claciei, adjacenl snall
deliis-coveied glacieis al lhe veslein end of lhe Wakhan panhandle, and lhe ieliealing, deliis-
coveied valley glacieis in lhe iegion of Ianjshii Valley (Molnia 2OO9).
9
Resulls fion lhe USCS suivey in lhe Wakhan aiea iepoil lhal neaily all glacieis exanined
(appioxinalely 5OO) shov signs of iecenl lhinning and ielieal. Many ciiques and snall glaciei
fiagnenls aie piesenl, and nany glacieis have significanl deliis-coveied lovei ieaches hosling
nuneious supiaglacial lakes and lheinokaisl pils, vhich aie oflen found on slagnanl oi slovly
noving ice (foi exanple, see figuie 1).
FIgurc 1: A typIca! dcbrIs-cnvcrcd g!acIcr In thc MIan Shar Va!!cy, Warsaj. Autnmatcd
g!acIcr-mappIng a!gnrIthms rc!y nn thc rcf!cctancc prnpcrtIcs nf snnw and Icc. Thc g!acIcr
pIcturcd Is a!mnst cntIrc!y dcbrIs cnvcrcd. FIc!d InvcstIgatInns In 2008 cnnfIrmcd thIs tn bc a
dcbrIs-cnvcrcd g!acIcr, but wIth cvIdcncc nf dnwn-wastIng, as shnwn by thcrmnkarstIc
suprag!acIa! pnnds. Rc!Iancc nn rcf!cctancc prnpcrtIcs a!nnc undcrcstImatcs watcr rcsnurccs
In rcgInns whcrc dcbrIs-cnvcrcd g!acIcrs arc cnmmnn.
The ieduclion in ice nass poses a significanl lhieal lo lhe secuiily of valei iesouices al a line
vhen Afghanislan seeks econonic developnenl. Togelhei vilh a gioving populalion, lhis vill
nosl likely place giealei denands on valei supplies. In addilion, glacial lakes oflen foin as
glacieis nell and iecede. These aie oflen held lack ly noiaine dans, vhich nay fail due lo
incieased volunes of valei oi lecone oveilopped due lo incieased glaciei-nell iales. These
evenls aie knovn as glacial lake oulluisl floods and have leen olseived in pails of lhe
Hinalayas and lhe Andes in iecenl yeais. While none have leen iecoided in Afghanislan lo
dale, a caieful noniloiing piogianne is ceilainly needed as nev valei lodies foin in high-
nounlain aieas.
A najoi difficully in assessing valei iesouices locked up in glacial ice is lhe laige piopoilion of
deliis-coveied glacieis in Afghanislan. This nakes il difficull lo discein lhe exlenl of glacieis
fion suiiounding noiaine deliis using liadilional salellile-lased iefleclance algoiilhns. Iaul
10
el al. (2O1O) find lhal napping lhe deliis-fiee poilion of glacieis alone in lhe Hinalayas
undeieslinales lhe glacialed aiea ly up lo 5O peicenl. They piopose a nev lechnique involving
lhe level of coheience acioss iadai inages acquiied on sepaiale dales. Iov coheience signifies
novenenl and can lheiefoie le used lo diffeienliale lelveen a deliis-coveied glaciei and
noiaine deliis.
Regaidless of lhe seveiily of floods and dioughl and lhe inpacl of clinale change on valei
iesouices and iegaidless of lhe success of long-lein effoils laken lo nanage valei shoilages
and peiiods of high valei noie effeclively, such as lhiough sloiage dans and calchnenl
pioleclion, a najoi and consislenl challenge is achieving lhe involvenenl of civil sociely in
infoinalion shaiing and flood and dioughl piepaiedness (foi exanple, see Revenga 2OO6,
hallachaiya el al. 2OO4).
In Afghanislan, seasonal snovfall is an exlienely inpoilanl inpul lo lhe annual valei ludgel.
The vasl najoiily of lhe piecipilalion falls al high elevalions and in vinlei, nainly as snov. As
il nells in spiing, lhis fiozen ieseivoii iechaiges gioundvalei and feeds iiveis lhiough suiface
iunoff. Agiiculluie and hunan selllenenls aie dependenl on lhe slale of lhe vinlei snovpack
in nany aieas of Afghanislan. Accoiding lo an old Kaluli saying, May Kalul le vilhoul gold
ialhei lhan vilhoul snov.
The alilily lo noniloi lolh lhe exlenl of snov covei and lhe lining of deplelion is invalualle in
piedicling flood fiequency and inlensily and lhe expecled sunnei dioughl lefoie lhe vinlei
iains. The use of salellile sensois and lhe inleipielalion of lhe dala using ienole sensing lools
piovide a suilalle plalfoin foi noniloiing such enviionnenlal vaiialilily al high spalial and
lenpoial iesolulions. This is especially useful in counliies such as Afghanislan vheie
videspiead lack of secuiily iesliicls lhe colleclion of field dala.
The vinlei snovpack can le desciiled accoiding lo lhiee nain paianeleis: snov-coveied aiea,
snov deplh and SWL. SWL is an exlienely useful neasuie foi valei iesouice planning as il
lakes inlo accounl lhe densily of lhe snovpack and lheiefoie indicales hov nuch valei vould
le availalle if lhe snovpack veie suddenly lo nell.
Snov-coveied aiea is lhe nosl iolusl snov paianelei as il is neasuied al ielalively high
spalial iesolulion (5OO nelies) and is diieclly olseived via lhe nodeiale-iesolulion inaging
speclionelei (MODIS) salellile using a snov deleclion algoiilhn (Hall 2OO2).
Rosegianl el al. (2OO2) offei a conpiehensive ieviev of lhe expecled developnenls in lhe valei
secloi unlil 2O25. They use iivei lasins as lhe lasic unil of analysis and exlend lhe analysis
leyond valei-foi-food scenaiios ly inlioducing enviionnenlal valei consliainls. They also
inlioduce valei as an econonic good and use piicing nechanisns lo analyse lhe effecl of piice
on valei use efficiency ielalive lo coiiesponding iesulls lased on lhe lusiness-as-usual
scenaiio. Revenga (2OO6) gives a posilive assessnenl of lhis pullicalion in a look ieviev. She
aigues, hovevei, lhal lhe inclusion of an analysis of iequiied goveinance and inslilulional
11
iefoins vould have nade lhe pullicalion of Rosegianl el al. even noie conpiehensive and
gioundlieaking.
3. MatcrIa!s and Mcthnds
3.1. HIstnrIca! hydrn!ngIca! and c!Imatc rccnrds
The lesl infoinalion souice on ienevalle valei supplies in Afghanislan is lhe la|crsnc A||as
of Iavie and Kanal (2OO4). The allas uses iivei lasins as nanagenenl unils and giounds an
hydiologic analysis on hydioneliic dala al 31 selecled slalions. These slalions span a peiiod
fion lhe 194Os oi 195Os lo 1979. The hydioneliic dala consisl of daily dischaige dala in culic
nelies pei second and aie geneially iefeiied lo as hisloiical dala.
The conplele hisloiical hydioneliic dala of sone 1OO slalions have leen analysed lhiough
vaiious piojecls, and line seiies analysis indicales lhal lhe seiies is consislenl and ielialle,
allhough lhe dala fion sone slalions covei only shoil line inleivals. The iav dala have leen
losl, hovevei, and, piesenlly, only lhe daily aveiage iechaiges aie availalle. This piecludes lhe
analysis of iivei levels and inslanlaneous high floods.
The clinale of Afghanislan falls vilhin a diy clinale zone lypical foi iegions lelveen 2O and
35 lalilude. The dala on clinale aie noslly fion lhe peiiod lefoie lhe Russian invasion in 1979,
and nany of lhe dala have leen losl. Theiefoie, lasic dala foi dioughl analysis aie nol
availalle. Dala indicaling iainfall inlensilies and lhe coiiesponding liiggei values foi oveiland
flovs and iesulling flash-floods aie alsenl as vell. Mosl of lhe piecipilalion falls in lhe vinlei
nonlhs, and lhe laigesl quanlilies occui in lhe foin of snov in lhe nounlains. (Savage el al.
(2OO9) have caiiied oul an analysis of clinale change and ils inpacl on Afghanislan.)
Tiadilional nelhods of dioughl assessnenl and noniloiing iely on piecipilalion dala. These
aie quile liniled in lhis pail of Asia, and salellile inageiy nay le used as an alleinalive (foi
exanple, see Thenkalail el al. 2OO4). This is noie specifically lhe case in Afghanislan. Iiddes
(2OO7) uses salellile inageiy dala lo conpaie snov coveiage vilh iivei flovs and lo delecl
clinale change. Savage el al. (2OO9) use lhe nodel dala fion clinale nodelling voik iecenlly
undeilaken in lhe Uniled Kingdon foi lhe Depailnenl foi Inleinalional Developnenl ly lhe
Univeisily of Oxfoid and lhe Tyndall Cenlie foi Clinale Change Reseaich.
Valualle salellile inageiy dala foi dioughl and flood noniloiing aie availalle lhiough lhe US
Nalional Oceanic and Alnospheiic Adninislialion and MODIS. These dala aie fieely availalle
and can le used lo calculale vegelalion indices~lhe noinalized diffeience vegelalion index
(NDVI) and lhe vegelalion condilion index~and dioughl indices (see
hllps://lpdaac.usgs.gov/). MODIS dala aie also used foi lhe calculalion of SWL ly USCS
lased on a nelhod developed al Ulah Slale Univeisily. The iesulling naps foi Afghanislan aie
availalle on lhe Ianine Laily Waining Syslens Nelvoik velsile
12
(hllp://eailyvaining.usgs.gov/index.php). They foin an inpoilanl souice of infoinalion lhal
can le used lo foiecasl dioughl, as vell as high valei and floods ielaled lo snov-nell.
Much of lhe infoinalion cuiienlly used in Afghanislan is lased on inleivievs vilh key
infoinanls. This infoinalion is valualle and gives a good indicalion of liends and nenoialle
evenls. Il could also le helpful in deleinining dioughl and flood piepaiedness, niligalion and
coping slialegies. Hovevei, lhe dala do nol facililale quanlilalive analysis oi foiecasling.
Nev dala aie nainly collecled lhiough piojecls. Lxceplions aie lasic nonlhly
agioneleoiological dala pullished lhiough lhe USCS Agionel Iiojecl funded ly lhe Uniled
Slales Agency foi Inleinalional Developnenl. The dala aie in sunnaiy foin, hovevei, and lhe
iav dala aie nol ieadily availalle.
The Lneigency Iiiigalion Rehalililalion Iiojecl funded ly lhe Woild ank has inslalled aloul
1OO of a planned 174 hydioneliic slalions. These slalions conducl aulonaled neasuienenls of
valei piessuie as an indicalion of valei level. Hovevei, lhe calilialion and veiificalion of lhe
dala consislency aie slill needed. This sludy uses sone flov dala collecled lhiough lhe Ianj-
Anu Rivei asin Iiogianne funded ly lhe Luiopean Connission.
3.2. Satc!!Itc Imagcry
The fieely availalle dala of lhe US Nalional Oceanic and Alnospheiic Adninislialion and
Ianine Laily Waining Syslens Nelvoik on vaiious indices aie used lo noniloi vegelalion
condilions and snov accunulalion. RILs could le used lo fill lhe gaps in lhe lov-densily
neasuienenl nelvoik. Ciound veiificalion and calilialion, hovevei, aie also needed. Theie is
also lhe possililily of developing iivei flov noniloiing using ienole sensing (see Dailnoulh
Ilood Olseivaloiy, al hllp://floodolseivaloiy.coloiado.edu/index.hlnl).
SWL naps aie availalle lhiough lhe Ianine Laily Waining Syslens Nelvoik
(hllp://eailyvaining.usgs.gov/index.php) of USCS and lhe US Agency foi Inleinalional
Developnenl and aie conpuled fion a disliiluled, physically lased eneigy lalance nodel (lhe
Ulah Lneigy alance Model, see Tailolon and Iuce 1996) (figuie 2). Inpuls foi lhe nodel aie
dovnscaled clinalology fion a iegional clinale nodel (solai iadialion, aii lenpeialuie, vind,
hunidily and alnospheiic piessuie) and daily giidded piecipilalion dala (RILs, see Xie and
Aikin 1997). The iesolulion of lhe SWL oulpul is 1O ly 1O kilonelies. This neans lhal each giid
cell of 1O ly 1O kilonelies has an aveiage SWL value.
13
FIgurc 2: SWE map fnr AfghanIstan, AprI! 2010. Mndc!cd SWE cnmputcd usIng thc Utah
Encrgy Ba!ancc Mndc!, dnwnsca!cd c!Imatn!ngy (http://www.mmm.ucar.cdu/mm5/) and RFE
raInfa!! grIds.
This nelhod suffeis fion lvo nain piollens, as follovs:
1. Theie is no calilialion of RIL giids fion iain gauges on lhe giound in Afghanislan (unlike
lhe sislei piojecl in Afiica, see Heinan el al. 1997).
2. The conplex lopogiaphy of lhe Hindu Kush lhal doninales lhe donain vheie snov is
inpoilanl nakes dovnscaling clinale dala a difficull lask. Topogiaphy diclales lhe
clinalology al oi neai land suiface. This neans lhal key inpuls lo lhe nodel (aii
lenpeialuie and so on) vaiy lo a gieal exlenl al iesolulions fai lelov lhe nodel iesolulion.
Ioi exanple, if one veie lo liavel noilh fion lhe Salang lunnel vilhin a 1O kilonelie
hoiizonlal dislance, lheie is an elevalion giadienl of ovei 1,OOO nelies, vhich ioughly
equales lo a lenpeialuie giadienl of 6-7C (assuning a slandaid lapse iale). Anolhei key
paianelei foi calculaling lhe eneigy lalance of snovpack is solai iadialion, vhich shovs
even giealei vaiialilily ovei nuch shoilei hoiizonlal dislances, foi exanple if one sinply
ciosses a nounlain iidge fion lhe noilh side lo lhe soulh side.
While nodels aie alle lo piovide dala lhal aie useful foi inlei-annual conpaiisons, lhey
fiequenlly offei a iepiesenlalion of condilions on lhe giound lhal is fai fion accuiale vilhoul
calilialion using giound dala. An inpoilanl nexl slep in lhe developnenl of a nalional snov
noniloiing slialegy is lhe eslallishnenl of a snov suivey iouline lo neasuie snov deplh and
SWL on lhe giound. This vill enalle lhe calilialion of cuiienl nodel eslinales, as vell as lhe
eslallishnenl of an Afghan snov hydiology dalasel foi fuilhei analysis and a lellei
undeislanding of suiface piocesses in lhe Hindu Kush. Alongside lhis piogianne, lhe
eslallishnenl of a nelvoik of sinple neleoiological slalions hosling insliunenls lhal iecoid aii
lenpeialuie, hunidily, glolal iadialion, vind speed and piecipilalion al vaiious localions in
14
lhe Hindu Kush donain vould significanlly inpiove lhe alilily of cuiienl conpulei nodels lo
nake accuiale seasonal foiecasls of hydiological piocesses in lhis conplex lopogiaphy.
3.3. Thc Watcr Law
We have analysed lhe nev Walei Iav (Gazc||c 98O, Apiil 2OO9) and sludied lhe ielaled lasic
nanagenenl unil (lhe iivei lasin) and lhe piinciples of inlegialed valei iesouices
nanagenenl, including vaiious slakeholdei and cooidinalion plalfoins. We offei lhe pioposal
lhal lhe ielevanl inslilulions should le developed lo acl as najoi lools in flood and dioughl
piepaiedness.
4. DIscussInn
4.1. Watcr scarcc nr watcr rIch?
The lesl infoinalion souice on ienevalle valei supplies is lhe la|crsnc A||as of Iavie and
Kanal (2OO4). This allas uses hydioneliic dala lhal veie collecled al 31 slalions fion lhe 194Os
oi 195Os lo 1979.
Assuning a populalion of 28 nillion (CIA 2O1O) and using lhe dala fion Iavie and Kanal
(2OO4), vho eslinale lhal lheie aie 84 lillion culic nelies of ienevalle suiface valei, ve
calculale lhal lhe quanlily of ienevalle valei pei capila vould anounl lo appioxinalely 3,OOO
culic nelies. This vould place Afghanislan in lhe calegoiy of counliies vilhoul valei sliess.
To conpaie spalial vaiialilily, ve nusl iely on lhe only consislenl dala availalle, fion Iavie
and Kanal (2OO4). The iesulls on lhe vaiialion in ienevalle valei iesouices pei capila aie
shovn in lalle 1.
13
Basln ||ou, cublc netres,
nl||lons
Pou|atlon cublc netres er calta
Panj-Amu 48,12O 2,968,122 16,212
HarIrnd
Murghab
3,O6O 1,722,275 1,777
HI!mand 9,3OO 5,881,571 1,581
Kabu! 21,65O 7,184,974 3,O13
Nnrthcrn 1,88O 2,783,O33 676
Tnta! 84,O1O 2O,539,975 4,O9O
Tab!c 1: Annua! f!nw pcr basIn, sctt!cd pnpu!atInn pcr basIn and annua! rcncwab!c watcr pcr
capIta (Snurcc: Favrc and Kama! 2004)
Talle 1 cleaily shovs lhe vaiialilily of annually ienevalle valei in culic nelies pei capila foi
diffeienl lasins, ianging fion 676 in lhe Noilhein lasin lo 16,212 in lhe Ianj-Anu lasin.
Accoiding lo lhe classificalion of Yang el al. (2OO3), lhis vould nean lhal lhe Noilhein lasin
has a valei shoilage, vhile lhe Hilnand and Haiiiod-Muighal lasins aie close lo lhe lhieshold
value of 1,5OO culic nelies pei capila. Iolloving lhe Ialkennaik indicalois, lolh lhe Noilhein
and Hilnand lasins fall lelov lhe lhieshold of 1,7OO culic nelies pei capila, and lhe Haiiiod-
Muighal lasin is close lo lhis value. Wilh lhe inciease in populalion since 2OO4, lolh lasins
vould piolally also le naiked as suffeiing sone degiee of valei shoilage.
The spalial diffeiences aie even noie pionounced if ve analyse dala on a sul-lasin scale. The
Ianj-Anu lasin, al 16,212 culic nelies pei capila, has a valei availalilily of 1O lines lhe
lhieshold. Hovevei, lhe annually ienevalle valei in lhe lovei Kunduz, one of lhe sul-lasins
of lhe Ianj-Anu lasin, is aiound oi slighlly lelov lhe lhieshold value of 1,7OO culic nelies pei
capila. The Kalul lasin seens equally valei iich, hovevei, lhe najoiily of lhe valei enleis lhe
lasin in ils lovei ieaches, close lo lhe loidei vilh Iakislan. This indicales lhal lhe uppei Kalul
and Iogai sul-lasins vould nosl likely le classified as valei sliessed.
The populalion dala of Iavie and Kanal (2OO4) aie lased on Cenlial Slalislics Oiganizalion
dala of 2OO3-O4 (CSO 2OO4). Hovevei, lheie aie difficullies in using lhese. In lhe geneial seclion
aloul valei iesouices, a lolal populalion of 22.2 nillion is given, vheieas lhe lalle vilh sellled
populalion only lolals 2O.5 nillion. The ienaining 1.7 nillion people nosl likely consisl of
iepaliialed iefugees, inleinally displaced peisons and people piaclising lianshunance oi
nonadic pasloialisn. Dala on Afghanislan aie oflen difficull lo inleipiel lecause of such
inconsislencies and laige gaps in dala colleclion as a iesull of yeais of conflicl and deleiioialed
dala colleclion syslens. Raiely aie dala scienlifically iolusl, as a iesull, lhey nusl le
inleipieled caiefully.
4.2. Drnught
16
In Afghanislan, dioughl occuis fiequenlly, vhich is in line vilh lhe expeclalions foi lhe diy
aieas in lhe voild (foi exanple, see Liiyagana el al. 2OO9). The nosl iecenl iepoiled evenls
veie a long evenl in 1997-2OO4 and in 2OO8. The dioughl in 1997-2OO4 has leen analysed on lhe
lasis of a iunning anonaly of aveiage iainfall iecoids and vas iepoiledly one of lhe nosl
seveie in Afghanislans clinalic hisloiy (MRRD 2OO4). The 2OO8 dioughl has leen called lhe
nosl seveie dioughl in living nenoiy (Savage el al. 2OO9). The yeais 2OO5 and 2OO9, hovevei,
veie chaiacleiized ly laige snov accunulalions in lhe nounlains, as vell as floods.
Many iegions in lhe voild, including Afghanislan, aie chaiacleiized ly lhe unielialle and
vulneialle naluie of iivei dischaiges. Liiyagana el al. (2OO9) vain lhal, in lhese iegions, lheie
is a dangei in adopling dioughl niligalion slialegies lhal focus on iivei flovs alone. They
aigue foi lhe applicalion of an inlegialed package, including valei haivesling and iivei flovs.
hallachaiya el al. (2OO4) piopose lhe use of valei haivesling lechniques and indicale lhe laige
polenlial lhis nighl have foi valei supplies in lhe villages in lhe five nain iivei lasins of
Afghanislan.
Dioughl sensilivily can le classified in vaiious vays aflei Liiyagana el al. (2OO9). Including
socio-econonic dala and accounling foi lhe dependence of lhe populalion on agiiculluie foi
incone and jol geneialion, one nay classify Afghanislan as one of lhe nosl dioughl-sensilive
counliies in lhe voild. Only Llhiopia is classified as noie sensilive, and fev olhei counliies aie
classified al lhe sane high level as Afghanislan. Afghanislan is lhe nosl vulneialle counliy if
ve classify il accoiding lo an infiasliucluie index lhal consideis lhe shaie of people having
access lo an inpioved valei souice and lhe geneial accessililily of iuial aieas. Allhough
Afghanislan has a lov ialio of sloiage lo valei availalilily ielalive lo lhe iesl of lhe iegion, lhe
ialio of sloiage lo valei deficil is lellei in Afghanislan lhan in India and Iakislan and
conpaialle vilh lhe coiiesponding ialio in Iian.
Dioughl noniloiing and linely dioughl vainings could have an inpoilanl inpacl on lhe
successful niligalion of lhe inpacls of dioughl. The Coveinnenl of Afghanislan undeilook lhis
piaclice in 2OO4 (hallachaiya el al. 2OO4), hovevei, lhe liniled availalilily of dala hanpeis lhe
linely deleclion of dioughl liends, and addilional developnenl has nol laken place. The
dioughl noniloiing syslens undei developnenl and desciiled ly Thenkalail el al. (2OO4)
could significanlly inciease lhe alilily lo announce inpending dioughl in a linely nannei.
Theie is also a chance of leing alle lo piedicl ciop yields using ienole sensing, as shovn ly
Unganai and Kogan (1998), vho accuialely piedicled coin yields in soulhein Afiica noie lhan
six veeks in advance using a vegelalion condilion index.
The NDVI is one of lhe nosl videly used indices foi vegelalion noniloiing due lo lhe
sinplicily of lhe algoiilhn. The iesulls pioduced aie found lo coiielale vell vilh giound-
liulhed lionass neasuienenls. The NDVI is lased on lhe speclial iesponse of lhe chloiophyll
pignenl piesenl in lionass. Red lighl (O.6-O.7) has a high level of alsoiplion, vheieas neai
17
infiaied lighl (O.8-O.9) has a high iale of iefleclance. Theiefoie, a ialio of lhe inage lands lhal
iepiesenl lhese vavelenglhs of lighl gives a good neasuie of lionass.
In Iandsal salellile inageiy, land 4 iepiesenls neai infiaied vavelenglhs and land 3
iepiesenls ied lighl vavelenglhs. The iesull of lhe calculalion is a iaslei dalasel in vhich all
values lie lelveen +1 and 1. Iosilive values indicale lhe piesence of vegelalion, vilh
incieasing lionass as lhe nunlei incieases. Negalive values indicale lhe alsence of vegelalion.
The Ianine Laily Waining Syslens Nelvoik supplies NDVI pioducls on Afghanislan deiived
fion lhe MODIS salellile on a 16-day cycle. Hovevei, lhe 5OO-nelie iesolulion of lhese
pioducls pievenls applicalion lo local inpacl sludies. Wilhin lhe fianevoik of lhe Ianj-Anu
Rivei asin Iiogianne, voik has leen caiiied oul using lhe Iandsal pioducl lo deiive 3O-
nelie iesolulion NDVI pioducls lhal allov foi lhe inleipielalion of local inpacls (figuie 3).
Anolhei lask lhal is planned is lhe consliuclion of a 2O-yeai NDVI line seiies lhal vould enalle
a long-lein nean NDVI value lo le calculaled foi each iegion. The analysis of cuiienl lionass
can lhen le conpaied vilh lhe long-lein nean lo pioduce anonaly iesulls. These iesulls
vould iepiesenl a useful inleipielalion of lhe NDVI conpaied vilh lhe iesulls of a sinple
conpaiison of values fion lhe pievious yeai. Iiguie 3 shovs lhe iesulls of an NDVI
conpaiison of Augusl 2OO7 and 2OO8. The seveie dioughl of 2OO8 is evidenl in lhe nuch
ieduced NDVI values lhioughoul lhe nain iiiigaled zones of lhe Kunduz iivei lasin. The
consliuclion of a long-lein nean NDVI dalasel vould allov cuiienl seasonal values lo le
plolled againsl nean values lo piovide eaily vaining of a developing dioughl silualion. This
voik needs lo le acconpanied ly giound liulhing (vhich has legun) lo caliliale values lo
exisling ciop palleins and lheiely aid lhe inleipielalion of lhe NDVI iesulls.
FIgurc 3: NDVI Imagcs nf Bagh!an, Kunduz and Ta!nqan IrrIgatInn znncs In August 2007 and
2008. Thc Impact nf thc 2008 drnught Is c!car!y shnwn.
4.3. F!nnds
18
Iloods occui annually in Afghanislan nainly as (1) flash-floods oi (2) giadual excess
piecipilalion floods. Iloods aie oflen due lo snov-nell. The fiisl floods aie difficull lo piedicl,
lhe lalei ones aie noie easily piedicled, lhough no syslenalic appioach is leing used in
Afghanislan yel.
The seiiousness of lhe floods in Afghanislan is piolally nosl effeclively indicaled in lhe naps
of lhe Naluial Disasleis Holspol Iiojecl (Dilley el al. 2OO5). In lhis piojecl, lhe seiiousness of
dioughl in Afghanislan is indicaled ly lhe scoies of 1 lo 4 on a scale of 1 (slighl) lo 1O
(exlienely seiious). Meanvhile, floods shov indicalois lelveen 1 and 1O, vilh lhe najoiily
lelveen 4 and 7. This cleaily indicales lhal lhe dealhs and econonic danage nighl le highei
foi floods lhan foi dioughl. Hovevei, Liiyagana el al. (2OO9) aigue lhal lhese lypes of indices
nighl le liased since il is difficull lo confiin lhe noilalily counl associaled vilh dioughl.
The Uniled Nalions Developnenl Iiogianne also iales lhe flood exposuie and dealhs in
Afghanislan anong lhe highesl in lhe voild. (Relalive lo populalion, Afghanislan is ianked
second highesl in lhe voild only aflei hulan, see UNDI 2OO4.) Afghanislan also shovs one of
lhe highesl shaies of people exposed lo dioughl (fouilh in lhe voild aflei }oidan, Iiaq and
Lcuadoi). The high exposuie lo floods, as in hulan, suggesl lhal lhis is pailially due lo lhe
nounlainous chaiaclei of lhe counliy, lhis aigunenl is slienglhened ly lhe facl lhal olhei
nounlainous counliies aie anong lhe lop 1O, such as olivia, Lcuadoi and Nepal.
Theie is sone indicalion lhal significanl iainfall in eaily spiing iepiesenls a lasis foi iisk
assessnenl foi flash-floods. In Afghanislan, flash-floods geneially occui vilhin lhe sane
nonlhs of lhe yeai, fion Ieliuaiy lo }une, excepl foi lhe easlein pail of lhe Kalul lasin, vhich
is influenced ly lhe nonsoon and oflen suffeis fion flash-floods in Augusl and Seplenlei. In
lhe olhei aieas, 3O of lhe 39 floods iecoided lelveen 2OO2 and 2O1O occuiied fion Ieliuaiy lo
}une (Dailnoulh Ilood Olseivaloiy, al hllp://floodolseivaloiy.coloiado.edu/index.hlnl).
Duiing lhe sane peiiod, 9 of lhe 12 floods lhal occuiied fion }uly lo Seplenlei occuiied in lhe
easlein Kalul lasin.
In lhe aiea nol influenced ly nonsoon, lheie seens lo le a sliong coiielalion lelveen iainfall
and snov in lhe eaily spiing and lhe inlensily of flash-floods (Dailnoulh Ilood Olseivaloiy, al
hllp://floodolseivaloiy.coloiado.edu/index.hlnl). The najoiily of floods lhal veie iecoided
in 2OO3 and 2OO5 occuiied folloving ielalively vel, snov-iich vinleis. The alsence of dala on
lhe 2OO9 floods in lhe Dailnoulh seiies is quile ienaikalle and adds sone doull aloul lhe
accuiacy of lhe noniloiing syslen.
The floods caused ly snov-nell occui annually fion lhe end of Apiil unlil lhe end of Augusl,
depending on lhe lasin. In geneial, lhe floods lasl fion foui lo six veeks, and lhey can le
piedicled ielalively vell on lhe lasis of lhe SWL eslinales availalle lhiough lhe Ianine Laily
Waining Syslens Nelvoik velsile (hllp://eailyvaining.usgs.gov/index.php). The lolal sun
of lhe SWL eslinales pei lasin can le conpaied vilh aveiage values and pievious yeais and
19
used foi foiecasls ielaled lo lhe aveiage and pievious yeai. This syslen, nuch like lhe lasin
excess iainfall naps piesenled ly Veidin el al. (2OO5), is undei lesling lhiough lhe Ianj-Anu
Rivei asin Iiogianne and seens lo le ialhei accuiale. In 2OO8, a seveie dioughl vas
piedicled, lhis dioughl vas confiined in lhe analysis of Savage el al. (2OO9). The Ianj-Anu
Rivei asin Iiogianne also caiiied oul dischaige neasuienenls, lhey aie conpaied vilh lhe
hisloiic dala foi lhe sane localion in figuie 4, vhich shovs cleaily lhal lhe neasuied dala fall
consislenlly undei lhe lovesl hisloiical dischaiges. In 2OO9, high flovs veie expecled, and
dischaige neasuienenls veie again conducled. The iesulls aie shovn in figuie 5.
FIgurc 4: HIstnrIca! hIgh, mcan and !nw f!nws and mcasurcd f!nws In thc Ta!nqan RIvcr
durIng 2008
20
FIgurc 5: HIstnrIca! hIgh, mcan and !nw f!nws and mcasurcd f!nws In thc Ta!nqan RIvcr
durIng 2009
The olseived flovs in 2OO9 veie high in lhe eaily sunnei due lo nassive flash-floods in lhe
enliie sul-lasin. This peak vas folloved ly a dip due lo lov lenpeialuies lhal iesulled in
ieduced snov-nell. Due lo lhe lale snov-nell, a second peak vas olseived, acconpanied ly
high dischaiges, lalei in lhe season. This effecl vas especially pionounced in lhe Kunduz Rivei,
vheie a ielalively long peiiod of high dischaiges occuiied. This can also le cleaily olseived in
lhe salellile-lased dischaige neasuienenls of lhe Dailnoulh Ilood Olseivaloiy (figuie 6).
Anolhei inleiesling phenonenon shovn in figuie 6 is lhe hysleiesis of lhe syslen. Allhough lhe
vinlei vas ielalively snov iich, neasuied dischaiges ienained lelov lhe lovesl hisloiical
dischaiges unlil lale Apiil 2OO9. This is piolally due lo lhe effecl of lhe dioughl of 2OO8.
FIgurc 6: Thc rcmntc!y scnscd dIschargc In thc !nwcr Kunduz sub-basIn, Dartmnuth F!nnd
Obscrvatnry, http://f!nndnbscrvatnry.cn!nradn.cdu/Indcx.htm!
21
In lhe Ianj-Anu Rivei asin Iiogianne, lhe piediclions nade on lhe lasis of lhe Afghanislan
snov covei pioducls of lhe Ianine Laily Waining Syslens Nelvoik and pullished SWL
eslinales, in conlinalion vilh pullished USCS piecipilalion dala, aie ioulinely shaied vilh
valei useis and line ninisliies lhiough nullislakeholdei plalfoins (Iandell Mills Ild 2OO9).
We lelieve lhal lhe developnenl of lhese infoinalion shaiing nechanisns in all lasins can
foin an inpoilanl nechanisn lo inpiove flood piepaiedness. The cuiienl Walei Iav piovides
lhe enliie inslilulional and legal lasis lo develop and inslilulionalize such nechanisns.
Apail fion lellei infoinalion and dioughl and flood piepaiedness, a nunlei of sliucluial
neasuies could le laken lo ieduce lhe inpacl of flash-floods and, al lhe sane line, ieduce lhe
vulneialilily lo dioughl. These include incieased valei sloiage and nanagenenl facililies in
lhe iivei lasins, as vell as laige-scale valei haivesling in calchnenls. This is suppoiled ly lhe
sludies of hallachaiya el al. (2OO4) and Liiyagana el al. (2OO9). Olhei neasuies lo ieduce flood
danage in lhe flood-plain include caiiying oul an assessnenl lhal cleaily zones lhose aieas lhal
should le piecluded fion selllenenl and laige infiasliucluie due lo flood iisks. Ilood-plain
naps indicaling lhe flooded aieas along iiveis fion lhe Dailnoulh Ilood Olseivaloiy velsile
(hllp://floodolseivaloiy.coloiado.edu/index.hlnl) could le a sliong advanlage in napping
and le supplenenled ly noie delailed salellile inageiy.
4.4. G!acIcrs In AfghanIstan
Delailed suiveys have leen caiiied oul ly lhe USCS in lhe high-elevalion iegions of lhe
Wakhan panhandle, lul olhei significanlly glacialed pails of Afghanislan, such as pails of
adakhshan Iiovince and high-elevalion iegions of lhe Kunduz lasin, have ieceived lillle
allenlion lo dale. iief suiveys in 2OO8 ievealed evidence of dovn-vasling glacieis in lhe
disliicl of Waisaj (figuie 7), and conpaiison of salellile inageiy ovei a 34-yeai peiiod has
shovn a ieduclion in ice exlenl and lhe foinalion of nev lakes due lo glacial nell. A syslenalic
invesligalion of glaciei slalus ovei lhe vhole of Afghanislan has nol leen peifoined.
22
FIgurc 7: Landsat Imagcry nf (a) Scptcmbcr 1972 and (b) Scptcmbcr 2006 nf thc uppcr rcachcs
nf DaraI Emcnd, Warsaj DIstrIct. A!! g!acIcrs shnw rcductInn In cxtcnt. Thc fIrn !Inc can bc
sccn tn havc rIscn In a!tItudc (thc dIvIsInn bctwccn b!uc Icc and whItc scasnna! snnw). Thc
g!acIcr pIcturcd In (d) has rctrcatcd 550 mctrcs nvcr thIs pcrInd (rcd trIang!c [In (a) and (b)] =
pnsItInn nf tcrmInus In 2008). Rcd cIrc!cs IndIcatc ncw!y fnrmcd g!acIa! !akcs rcsu!tIng frnm
mc!t. (d) Phntn (30 Scptcmbcr 2010) takcn frnm rcd dnt 180-dcgrcc pannrama c!nckwIsc frnm
duc nnrth tn snuth (c!cvatInn, 5050 mctrcs abnvc sca !cvc!). (c) Gnng!c Earth can bc a uscfu!
aId In asscssIng natura! hazards such as pntcntIa! g!acIa! !akc nutburst f!nnds. PIcturcd Is thc
ncw g!acIcr !akc nut!Incd by thc rIght-hand cIrc!c (In [b]). It Is apprnxImatc!y 450 squarc
mctrcs In arca.
4.5. Rcccnt trcnds In snnw cnvcr arca
Snov and ice nake up lhe laigesl piopoilion of annually ienevalle valei in Afghanislan. The
sludy of Iiddes (2OO7) is lhe nosl conplele. Iiddes piesenls an analysis of a 35-yeai line seiies
of dala on lhe exlenl of snov covei duiing vinlei and spiing in lhe Kunduz iivei lasin,
logelhei vilh hydiology and iegional clinalology. Iiddes finds il highly likely lhal lhe uppei
calchnenl aieas of lhe Kunduz iivei lasin expeiienced a iise in nean lenpeialuie of 1.32C
ovei lhe 2Olh Cenluiy duiing lhe spiing nonlhs of Maich lo May. Theie aie indicalions lhal a
lenpeialuie iise of 1.37C occuiied duiing lhe vinlei nonlhs of Decenlei lo Ieliuaiy. These
values aie alnosl lvice lhe glolal nean in 19O4-2OO5 of O.74C. This is consislenl vilh iegional
lenpeialuie incieases elsevheie in Cenlial Asia lhal veie alove lhe glolal aveiage
(Chiislensen el al. 2OO7).
4.5.1. Intcr-dccada! changc In snnw cnvcr arca
23
Snov covei has decieased ly 1O peicenl, on aveiage, in lhe Kalul iivei lasin ovei lhe vhole
snov season (Decenlei-May) lelveen 1972 and 2OO7 (figuie 8a). This consliluled a 4 peicenl
ieduclion in vinlei snov covei and a nuch giealei 15 peicenl ieduclion in spiing.
a) l)
FIgurc 8: Snnw cnvcr annma!Ics frnm a rccnnstructcd 35-ycar mcan fnr thc Kunduz rIvcr
basIn. (a) Dccada! annma!Ics shnw a c!car ncgatIvc trcnd In Dcccmbcr-Fcbruary (DJF),
March-May (MAM) and fnr thc whn!c scasnn. (b) Snnw cnvcr annma!Ics fnr 1998-2007
cnmparcd wIth thc !nng-tcrm mcan. SprIng mnnths shnw a sIgnIfIcant!y grcatcr dcvIatInn
frnm thc !nng-tcrm mcan rc!atIvc tn wIntcr mnnths.
This is consislenl vilh lhe negalive coiielalion found lelveen spiing snov covei and
lenpeialuie, logelhei vilh an olseived incieasing lenpeialuie liend. This is confiined ly
Haiilashya el al. (2OO6), vho olseived an inciease in lhe snovline in lhe cenlial Hindu Kush of
2OO nelies ovei lhe lasl 3O yeais. Il is lheiefoie ieasonalle lo suggesl lhal incieasing spiing
lenpeialuies in lhe uppei valeished aieas of lhe Kunduz iivei lasin ovei lhe couise of lhe
2Olh Cenluiy conliiluled lo a deciease in lhe exlenl of spiing snov covei ovei lhe olseived
peiiod 1972-2OO7.
4.5.2. Intra-annua! varIatInn In snnw cnvcr
A decadal nean foi 1998-2OO7 ieveals lhal lhe exlenl of snov covei has leen lelov lhe long-
lein aveiage in all vinlei and spiing nonlhs. The peicenlage snov covei vas found lo deviale
fion lhe long-lein nean lo an incieasing exlenl as lhe snov season piogiessed (figuie 8l). The
nininun anonaly vas in }anuaiy (1.6 peicenl), and lhe naxinun in May (33.5 peicenl).
This can le explained as follovs: lecause spiing snov covei is closei lo lhe nell-poinl ovei
giealei aieas, snall incieases in lenpeialuie have a giealei inpacl on snovpack in spiing lhan
24
in vinlei. This is consislenl vilh olseived glolal liends (iovn 2OOO, Dye 2OO2, Slevail el al.
2OO4).
Tolal lasin peak dischaige vas found lo le posilively coiielaled vilh lhe exlenl of spiing snov
covei. The olseived ieduclion in lhe exlenl of spiing snov covei is lheiefoie expecled lo lead lo
an equivalenl ieduclion in lhe dischaige iesulling fion snov-nell. Hovevei, lack of iivei
dischaige dala since lhe 197Os do nol allov foi lhis lo le accuialely veiified.
4.6. TradItInna! watcr managcmcnt mcthnds
Since 2OO3, iegulai iisk and vulneialilily assessnenls have leen caiiied oul in Afghanislan.
These foin one of lhe lesl souices of infoinalion on lhe silualion. Walei plays an inpoilanl
iole in lhe lives of alnosl all Afghans. This is cleaily denonslialed ly an analysis of lhe shocks
in households. Shocks aie defined as negalive incidenls oulside lhe conliol of households.
Walei is iepoiled as a shock ly alnosl 2O peicenl of lhe households (MRRD and CSO 2OO9).
Inpioved diinking valei supply and lhe iehalililalion of iiiigalion syslens aie lop
developnenl piioiilies anong connunilies.
Civen lhe cenlial inpoilance of valei and lhe developnenl of lhe valei secloi, il cones as no
suipiise lhal Afghanislan is iich in local valei nanagenenl lechniques. Ianous aie lhe |arczcs,
vhich lap gioundvalei ly neans of lunnels dug in nounlain fionls unlil lhe phiealic level is
ieached. The valei flovs sulsequenlly ly giavily lhiough lhe lunnel fion lhe nounlain lo lhe
suiiounding land and is used foi iiiigalion and doneslic consunplion. Anolhei lechnique is
lhe accunulalion of snov in vell-isolaled deep pils, lhe snov nells duiing sunnei and is
collecled lelov lhe pil, vheie il is accessed lhiough a dooi al lhe lollon of a ianp. These snov
pils aie iefeiied lo ly vaiious local leins, such as cna in lhe soulh (hallachaiya el al. 2OO4) and
qagnan in lhe noilh. In alnosl all connunilies, lheie is a vaiiely of valei haivesling ponds,
vhich aie also iefeiied lo ly nany diffeienl local leins. In lhe Haiiiod lasin, longiludinal
fields aie seen along vashes. This configuialion is efficienl in capluiing flood flovs vhen lhey
occui.
Theie has leen lillle allenlion in nosl developnenl piojecls lo luilding on lhese liadilional
lechniques. Hovevei, lheie seens lo le anple oppoilunily lo use lhese lechniques lo inpiove
valei availalilily in iuial connunilies, lhis is also noled ly hallachaiya el al. (2OO4). The
ielevance of liadilional lechniques is especially high in Afghanislan, lecause nany iuial
connunilies aie ienole and difficull lo ieach. These ienole villages cannol le seived ly any of
lhe iivei piojecls oi ly punped oi piped valei supply syslens fion dislanl localions.
Theiefoie, locally applicalle lechniques deseive noie allenlion in solving iuial valei piollens,
including dioughl niligalion and pioleclion againsl flood.
4.7. Lnca! InstItutInns
23
Afghanislan has a iich liadilion in local inslilulions. In nosl villages, lheie aie liadilional
councils of eldeis, iefeiied lo as Snuras. Villages lhal have a connon inleiesl aie oflen giouped
inlo a nan|cga, a loose lein foi gioups of villages, nanlegas oflen have liadilional councils of
eldeis as vell. Iiiigalion syslens aie geneially nanaged ly a valei naslei, lhe nirao, vho, on
lhe sulcanal level, is assisled ly a |c| oasini. (Theie is a laige vaiiely of local nanes foi lhe
vaiious posilions, heie, ve have chosen lo use nanes lhal aie connon in lhe noilh.) The niials
oflen used lo oiganize lhenselves in dovnsliean and upsliean gioups lo negoliale foi valei
duiing peiiods of dioughl.
Nev connunily oiganizalions have leen suppoiled lhiough vaiious piojecls and piogiannes
lo addiess noie effeclively lhe challenges of lodays econonic and social iealilies. The nosl
successful nev oiganizalions aie lhe connunily developnenl councils, vhich have leen
inlioduced lhiough lhe Nalional Solidaiily Iiogianne, and valei usei associalions, vhich
have leen inlioduced lhiough vaiious valei nanagenenl piogiannes. These oiganizalions
luild, lo a laige exlenl, on lhe liadilional inslilulions nenlioned alove. The valei usei
associalions aie officially and legally iecognized lhiough lhe nev Walei Iav.
Thiough lhe foinalion of sul-lasin and iivei lasin councils, lhe nev Walei Iav also foiesees
anolhei oiganizalional level sonevhal conpaialle vilh lhe infoinal niial gioups. These sul-
lasin and iivei lasin councils vill, aflei a capacily-luilding peiiod, lecone lhe decision nakeis
in valei nanagenenl al lhe sul-iivei lasin and iivei lasin levels. Sul-lasin and iivei lasin
agencies vill foin lhe piofessional lodies lhal caiiy oul lhese decisions and piovide lechnical
advice lo lhe councils, in sone cases, lhe decisions vill le linding.
4.8. Tnwards an InfnrmatInn stratcgy and actInn framcwnrk
Dioughl and flood foiecasls lased on vealhei dala, salellile inleipielalions and nodelling
could le piepaied ly iivei lasin and sul-lasin agencies, piolally suppoiled ly lhe Minisliy of
Lneigy and Walei al lhe nalional level. They could le shaied vilh lhe sul-lasin and lasin
councils, vhich vould lake decisions on piepaiedness slialegies. Accoiding lo lhe nev Walei
Iav, lhe iivei lasin agencies can declaie a dioughl and lake decisions foi dioughl niligalion.
Ilood and dioughl slialegies and aleils, if necessaiy, could lhen le inplenenled anong lhe
pullic, and lhe agencies vould piovide infoinalion aloul lhe vays lo piepaie piaclically foi
lhese evenls. The agencies could also give piaclical suppoil and piovide cooidinalion anong
valei useis and connunily oiganizalions lhiough lhe eslallishnenl of niligalion plans and ly
guiding lhe voik of olhei aclois, including lhiough (goveinnenlal) piogiannes and lhe
disliilulion of funds foi flood and dioughl piepaiedness. Self-help and pailicipaloiy
piepaiedness slialegies should le key piinciples lecause lhe populalion of Afghanislan is
spiead oul ovei so nany connunilies, nany of vhich aie ienole. Lffeclive connunily
26
oiganizalions and inslilulions vill nosl piolally le a key lo lhe success of any flood and
dioughl piepaiedness slialegies, including piepaiedness foi clinale change.
The nev legal fianevoik and lhe suppoil foi connunily oiganizalions piovided lhiough
vaiious developnenl piojecls have laid lhe foundalion foi effeclive valei nanagenenl lhal is
in line vilh lesl piaclice nanagenenl piinciples. The inpoilance of effeclive goveinance and
pailicipalion is alnosl univeisally iecognized ly ieseaicheis and developnenl specialisls.
5. Cnnc!usInns and RccnmmcndatInns
1. Al lhe nalional level, Afghanislan is nol valei scaice. Hovevei, valei can le classified as
scaice in one lasin and in nany sul-lasins.
2. Afghanislan is consideied valei scaice if lhe need foi enviionnenlal flovs is laken inlo
consideialion.
3. Afghanislan is nol pailiculaily dislincl fion nany olhei counliies in lhe diy zones of lhe
voild in leins of lhe oulcones neasuied lhiough nosl dioughl indicalois.
4. Afghanislan has a high sensilivily lo dioughl if socio-econonic condilions aie laken inlo
accounl, including lhe dependence on agiiculluie foi incone and enploynenl geneialion.
5. Afghanislan is also classified as vulneialle lo dioughl lecause of pooi access lo inpioved
valei souices and pooi iuial access in geneial.
6. Afghanislan has a giealei vulneialilily lo floods lhan lo dioughl.
7. The conlined vulneialilily lo floods and dioughl and lhe naluie of lhe counliys clinale,
vhich is lypical foi (seni-)aiid zones of lhe voild and vhich is chaiacleiized ly laige inlei-
annual vaiialilily, vaiianl lhe developnenl of effeclive eaily vaining and dioughl and
flood piepaiedness slialegies. These slialegies vould also help cope vilh lhe giadual shifls
lhal nighl iesull fion clinale change and lhal aie less sudden lhan lhe inlei-annual
changes and easiei lo piepaie foi oi adapl lo.
8. olh flood vulneialilily and sensilivily lo dioughl should le addiessed lhiough calchnenl
conseivalion and valei haivesling piaclices. Hovevei, lillle allenlion has leen paid lo lhese
in iecenl yeais.
9. A syslen should le developed foi lhe linely deleclion of dioughl and flood iisk. This
syslen should nol only ain lo piovide scienlifically accuiale piediclions, lul also focus on
supplying infoinalion lo lhe pullic and devising pailicipaloiy piepaiedness slialegies. The
nev Walei Iav foins an excellenl enalling enviionnenl foi lhe developnenl of such a
syslen.
1O. The foiecasls of floods and dioughl pioduced on lhe lasis of salellile inageiy and
supplenenled lhiough piecipilalion dala galheied lhiough lhe Ianj-Anu Rivei asin
Iiogianne shov a good coiiespondence vilh olseived dischaiges. This confiins lhe
polenlial of lhe use of salellile inageiy foi flood and dioughl piepaiedness.
27
11. Renolely sensed dischaiges fion lhe Dailnoulh Ilood Olseivaloiy velsile
(hllp://floodolseivaloiy.coloiado.edu/index.hlnl) indicale lhal lheie is pionise foi
fuilhei developnenl as vell.
12. Renole sensing dala iepiesenl a lienendous oppoilunily lo ollain counliyvide
infoinalion on dioughl and flood iisks and noniloiing and can conpensale foi lhe lov
densily of neasuienenl localions.
13. An aiea-vide coveiage of piecipilalion and aulonaled dischaige neasuienenls al vaiious
localions is needed. Moie iesouices should le devoled lo using and calilialing ienole
sensing infoinalion.
14. Syslenalic suiveys of glacial iesouices should le undeilaken lhioughoul lhe high-elevalion
aieas of Afghanislan and incoipoiale culling edge lechniques lo accounl foi lhe significanl
anounl of deliis-coveied ice.
15. Closei links should le developed lelveen inleinalional agencies and lhe piogiannes of
lhe Minisliy of Lneigy and Walei (such as lhe Ianj-Anu Rivei asin Iiogianne) so lhal
lheie is a noie effeclive flov of infoinalion and cuiienl knovledge lo pullic inslilulions.
16. Closei links should le developed vilh acadenic inslilulions lhal can piovide lechnical
suppoil, such as lhe Univeisily of Neliaska and lhe Univeisily of Zuiich, vhich hosls lhe
Woild Claciei Moniloiing Seivice.
17. A snov suivey piogianne should le eslallished lo galhei nodel validalion dala on SWL
and snov deplh.
18. A lov-cosl nelvoik of neleoiological slalions in lhe Hindu Kush donain should le
planned. The ain should le lo galhei essenlial clinalic dala in conplex lopogiaphies and
inpiove lhe accuiacy of cuiienl seasonal foiecasls.
19. Iong-lein (2O-yeai) NDVI line seiies should le consliucled lo allov foi annual anonaly
calculalions and inpiove dioughl assessnenls.
2O. Ciound liulhing dala should le inpioved so as lo facililale lhe calilialion of NDVI values
lo ciop lype palleins.
28
Rcfcrcnccs
Ailan, C., H. Cadain, }. I. Snilh, K. Asanle, C. }. andaiagoda and }. I. Veidin. (2OO7).
'Adequacy of Salellile Deiived Rainfall Dala foi Sliean Ilov Modeling. Na|ura| Hazars 43
(2): 167-185.
Asanle, K. O., R. D. Macuacua, C. A. Ailan, R. W. Iielzov and }. I. Veidin. (2OO7). 'Developing
a Ilood Moniloiing Syslen fion Renolely Sensed Dala foi lhe Iinpopo asin. ||||
Transac|icns cn Gccscicncc an Rcnc|c Scnsing 45 (6): 17O9-1714.
hallachaiya, K., I. M. Azizi, S. S. Sholaii and M. Y. Mohsini. (2OO4). 'Dioughl Inpacls and
Iolenlial foi Theii Miligalion in Soulhein and Weslein Afghanislan. IWMI Woiking Iapei
91. Inleinalional Walei Managenenl Inslilule, Colonlo, Sii Ianka.
ishop, M. I., }. A. Olsenhollei, }. I. Shiodei el al. (2OO4) 'Clolal Iand Ice Measuienenls fion
Space (CIIMS): Renole Sensing and CIS Invesligalions of lhe Lailh's Ciyospheie. Gcccar|c
|n|crna|icna| 19 (2): 57-84.
iovn, R. D. (2OOO). 'Noilhein Henispheie Snov Covei Vaiialilily and Change, 1915-1997.
]curna| cf C|ina|c 13 (13): 2339-2355.
Cancellieie, A., C. Di Mauio, . onaccoiso and C. Rossi. (2OO7). 'Dioughl Ioiecasling Using
lhe Slandaidized Iiecipilalion Index. la|cr Rcscurccs Managcncn| 21: 8O1-819.
Chiislensen }. H., and . Hevilson. (2OO7). 'Regional Clinale Iiojeclion. Supplenenlaiy
naleiial lo chap. 11 of C|ina|c Cnangc 2007. Tnc Pnqsica| Scicncc 8asis. Conliilulion of
Woiking Cioup I lo lhe Iouilh Assessnenl Repoil of lhe IICC.
CIA (Cenlial Inlelligence Agency). 2O1O. The Woild Iacllook.
hllps://vvv.cia.gov/liliaiy/pullicalions/lhe-voild-facllook/geos/af.hlnl (accessed 17
Apiil).
Colonlo, C. A., }. Heivs and A. I. Veleie Aiellano. (2OO2). 'Cuidelines on Ilash Ilood
Iievenlion and Miligalion. Inslilule foi lhe Iioleclion and Secuiily of lhe Cilizen, }oinl
Reseaich Cenlie, Luiopean Connission. Ispia (VA), Ilaly.
CSO (Cenlial Slalislics Oiganizalion). (2OO4). 'Iopulalion Dala 2OO3-O4. CSO, Kalul.
Dilley, M. R., S. Chen, U. Deichnan, A. Ienai Ian and A. Ainold. (2OO5). 'Naluial Disaslei
Holspols: A Clolal Risk Analysis. Hazaid Unil, Woild ank, Washinglon, DC.
Dye, D. C. (2OO2). 'Vaiialilily and Tiends in lhe Annual Snov-Covei Cycle in Noilhein
Henispheie Iand Aieas, 1972-2OOO. Hqrc|cgica| Prcccsscs 16 (15): 3O65-3O77.
Liiyagana, N., V. Snakhlin and N. Canage. (2OO9). 'Mapping Dioughl Ialleins and Inpacls: A
Clolal Ieispeclive. IWMI Reseaich Repoil 133. Inleinalional Walei Managenenl Inslilule,
Colonlo, Sii Ianka.
Ialkennaik, M., }. Iundquisl and C. Widsliand. (1989). 'Macio-scale Walei Scaicily Requiies
Micio-scale Appioaches: Aspecls of Vulneialilily in Seni-aiid Developnenl. Na|ura|
Rcscurccs |crun 13 (4): 258-267.
IAO (Iood and Agiiculluie Oiganizalion of lhe Uniled Nalions) and WII (Woild Iood
Iiogianne). (2OO4). 'Special Repoil: IAO/WII Ciop and Iood Supply Assessnenl Mission
lo Afghanislan, 8 Seplenlei 2OO4. Lcononic and Social Developnenl Depailnenl, IAO,
Rone. hllp://vvv.fao.oig/dociep/OO7/}2971e/}2971eOO.hln.
Iavie, R., and C. M. Kanal. (2OO4). la|crsnc A||as cf Afgnanis|an. lcr|ing Dccuncn| fcr
P|anncrs, 2 vols. Kalul: Afghanislan Infoinalion Managenenl Seivices.
Iiddes, }. (2OO7). 'Inplicalions of Clinale Change foi Walei Resouices in lhe Kunduz Rivei
asin, Afghanislan. Maslei of Science lhesis, Univeisily of Ldinluigh, Ldinluigh.
29
Haeleili, W., M. Maisch and I. Iaul. (2OO2). 'Mounlain Clacieis in Clolal Clinale-Relaled
Olseivalion Nelvoiks. lcr| Mc|ccrc|cgica| Organiza|icn 8u||c|in 51 (1): 18-25.
Hall, D. K., C. A. Riggs, V. V. Salononson, N. L. DiCiiolano and K. }. ayi. (2OO2). 'MODIS
Snov-Covei Iioducls. Rcnc|c Scnsing cf |ntircnncn| 83 (1-2): 181-194.
Haiilashya, U. K., M. I. ishop, }. I. Shiodei, H. N. ulley, }. A. Olsenhollei and }. N. Sailan.
(2OO6). 'Snovline and Claciei Assessnenl in lhe Cenlial Hindu Kush, Afghanislan, Ulilizing
Mulli-lenpoial Salellile Inageiy. Iapei piesenled al lhe Aneiican Ceophysical Union, Iall
Meeling, San Iiancisco, 11-15 Decenlei.
Heinan, A., V. . Kunai, I. A. Aikin and }. V. Kousky. (1997). 'Oljeclively Deleinined 1O-Day
Afiican Rainfall Lslinales Ciealed foi Ianine Laily Waining Syslens. |n|crna|icna| ]curna|
cf Rcnc|c Scnsing 18 (1O): 2147-2159.
Iandell Mills Ild. (2OO9). 'Technical Iioposal foi lhe Ianj-Anu Rivei asin Iiogianne:
Oiganisalion and Melhodology. Iandell Mills Ild, Tiovliidge, Uniled Kingdon.
Michel, D., and A. Iandya (eds). (2OO9). Trcuo|c la|crs. C|ina|c Cnangc, Hqrcpc|i|ics an
Transocunarq Rcscurccs. Washinglon, DC: Slinson.
Molnia, . I. (2OO9). 'Afghanislan: Deliis Coveied Clacieis, Supiaglacial Iakes, and lhe
Iolenlial foi Calasliophic Ilooding (}kulhlaups). Iapei piesenled al lhe Aneiican
Ceophysical Union, Iall Meeling, San Iiancisco, 14-18 Decenlei.
Molnia, . I., I. L. Ceisslei and L. M. Iee. (2OO8). 'Invenloiying and Moniloiing lhe Recenl
ehavioi of Afghanislans Clacieis: A Conponenl of lhe USCS Afghanislan Walei
Resouices Assessnenl. Iapei piesenled al lhe Luiopean Ceosciences Union, Ceneial
Assenlly 2OO8, Vienna, 13-18 Apiil.
MRRD (Minisliy of Ruial Rehalililalion and Developnenl). (2OO4). 'Analysis of Dioughl
Inpacl in Afghanislan, Sunnei 1383 (2OO4). Inleinal pullicalion. Vulneialilily Analysis
Unil, MRRD, Kalul.
MRRD (Minisliy of Ruial Rehalililalion and Developnenl) and CSO (Cenlial Slalislics
Oiganizalion). (2OO8). 'Sunnaiy of Nalional Risk and Vulneialilily Assessnenl 2OO7/8: A
Iiofile of Afghanislan. ICON-Inslilule CnlH & Co KC Consulling Ciuppe, Cologne,
}ehoon Iiinling Iiess, Kalul.
MRRD (Minisliy of Ruial Rehalililalion and Developnenl) and CSO (Cenlial Slalislics
Oiganizalion). (2OO9). Na|icna| Ris| an Vu|ncraoi|i|q Asscssncn| 2007/8. A Prcfi|c cf
Afgnanis|an. Cologne: ICON-Inslilule CnlH & Co KC Consulling Ciuppe.
NDMC (Nalional Dioughl Miligalion Cenlei). (2OO6). 'Whal is Dioughl` Undeislanding and
Defining Dioughl. NDMC, Univeisily of Neliaska-Iincoln, Iincoln, NL.
hllp://dioughl.unl.edu/vhalis/concepl.hln (accessed 2O Apiil 2O1O).
Iaul, I., T. Sliozzi and A. Kaal. (2O1O). 'Mapping Clean and Deliis-Coveied Clacieis fion
Ialsai Coheience Inages. Iapei piesenled al lhe Luiopean Ceosciences Union, Ceneial
Assenlly 2O1O, Vienna, 2-7 May.
Quieshi, A. S., and M. Akhlai. (2OO4). 'A Suivey of Dioughl Inpacls and Coping Measuies in
Helnand and Kandahai Iiovinces of Afghanislan. IWMI Inleinal Repoil, Decenlei.
Inleinalional Walei Managenenl Inslilule, Colonlo, Sii Ianka.
Revenga, C. 2OO6. 'lcr| la|cr an |cc |c 2025. Dca|ing ui|n Scarci|q ly M. W. Rosegianl, X. Cai
and S. A. Cline. |ccncnica 73 (292): 789-791.
Rijsleinan, I. R. (2OO6). 'Walei Scaicily: Iacl oi Iiclion`. Agricu||ura| la|cr Managcncn| 8O (1-
3): 5-22.
Rosegianl, M. W., X. Cai and S. A. Cline. (2OO2). lcr| la|cr an |cc |c 2025. Dca|ing ui|n
Scarci|q. Washinglon, DC: Inleinalional Iood Iolicy Reseaich Inslilule.
30
Savage, M., . Dougheily, M. Hanza, R. ulleifield and S. haivani. (2OO9). 'Socio-econonic
Inpacls of Clinale Change in Afghanislan: Iinal Repoil. Repoil DIID CNTR O8 85O7.
Slockholn Lnviionnenl Inslilule, Oxfoid.
Snakhlin, V., C. Revenga and I. Dll. (2OO4). 'A Iilol Clolal Assessnenl of Lnviionnenl Walei
Requiienenls and Scaicily. la|cr |n|crna|icna| 29 (3): 3O7-317.
Slevail, I. T., D. R. Cayan and M. D. Dellingei. (2OO4). 'Changes in Snovnell Runoff Tining in
Weslein Noilh Aneiica undei a usiness as Usual Clinale Change Scenaiio. C|ina|ic
Cnangc 62 (1): 217-232.
Tailolon, D. C., and C. H. Iuce. (1996). 'Ulah Lneigy alance Snov Accunulalion and Mell
Model (UL): Conpulei Model Technical Desciiplion and Useis Cuide, Decenlei. Ulah
Walei Reseaich Ialoialoiy, Ulah Slale Univeisily, Iogan, UT, Inleinounlain Reseaich
Slalion, US Depailnenl of Agiiculluie, Ogden, UT.
Thenkalail, I. S., M. S. D. N. Canage and V. U. Snakhlin. (2OO4). 'The Use of Renole Sensing
Dala foi Dioughl Assessnenl and Moniloiing in Soulhvesl Asia. Reseaich Repoil 85.
Inleinalional Walei Managenenl Inslilule, Colonlo, Sii Ianka.
UNDI (Uniled Nalions Developnenl Iiogianne). (2OO4). Rcucing Disas|cr Ris|. A Cna||cngc fcr
Dctc|cpncn|, a G|coa| Rcpcr|. Nev Yoik: uieau foi Ciisis Iievenlion and Recoveiy, UNDI.
UNDI (Uniled Nalions Developnenl Iiogianne). (2OO6). Hunan Dctc|cpncn| Rcpcr| 2006.
8cqcn Scarci|q, Pcucr, Pctcr|q an |nc G|coa| la|cr Crisis. Nev Yoik: UNDI, Nev Yoik:
Ialgiave Macnillan.
Unganai, I. S., and I. N. Kogan. (1998). 'Dioughl Moniloiing and Coin Yield Lslinalion in
Soulhein Afiica fion AVHRR Dala. Rcnc|c Scnsing cf |ntircnncn| 63 (3): 219-232.
UNOCHA. (2O1O). 'NLR Hunanilaiian Silualion: Iloods Updale, Dale: 18 Apiil 2O1O. Uniled
Nalions Office foi lhe Cooidinalion of Hunanilaiian Affaiis-Afghanislan, Kalul.
Vasiliades, I., and A. Ioukas. (2OO9). 'Hydiological Response lo Meleoiological Dioughl Using
lhe Ialnei Dioughl Indices in Thessaly, Cieece. Dcsa|ina|icn 237 (1-3): 3-21.
Veidin, }., C. Iunk, C. Senay and R. Choulailan. (2OO5). 'Clinale Science and Ianine Laily
Waining. Pni|cscpnica| Transac|icns cf |nc Rcqa| Sccic|q 8. 8ic|cgica| Scicnccs 36O: 2155-2168.
Viviioli, D., H. H. Dii, . Messeili, M. Meyleck, and R. Weingailnei. (2OO7). 'Mounlains of lhe
Woild, Walei Toveis foi Hunanily: Typology, Mapping, and Clolal Significance. la|cr
Rcscurccs Rcscarcn 43 (7).
Visnaily, C. }., I. A. Cieen, }. Salisluiy and R. . Ianneis. (2OOO). 'Clolal Walei Resouices:
Vulneialilily fion Clinale Change and Iopulalion Ciovlh. Scicncc 289: 284-288.
Visnaily, C. }., L. M. Douglas, I. A. Cieen and C. Revenga. (2OO5). 'Ceospalial Indicalois of
Lneiging Walei Sliess: An Applicalion lo Afiica. Anoic 34 (3): 23O-236.
Woild Walei Ioiun. 2OO6. 'The Walei Ciisis Is Nol Due lo Shoilage, Il Is a Coveinance Ciisis:
UN-Halilal. Iiess Release, 19 Maich. Woild Walei Council, Maiseilles.
Xie, I., and I. A. Aikin. (1997). 'Clolal Iiecipilalion: A 17-Yeai Monlhly Analysis ased on
Cauge Olseivalions, Salellile Lslinales and Nuneiical Model Oulpuls. 8u||c|in cf |nc
Ancrican Mc|ccrc|cgica| Sccic|q 78 (11): 2539-2558.
Yang, H., I. Reicheil, K. C. Allaspoui and A. }. . Zehndei. (2OO3). 'A Walei Resouices
Thieshold and Ils Inplicalions foi Iood Secuiily. |ntircnncn|a| Scicncc an Tccnnc|cgq 37
(14): 3O48-3O54.