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INDIA STRATEGY THEMATIC
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Gaurav Mehta
Tel: +91 22 3043 3255 gauravmehta@ambitcapital.com
Attractive Valuations* Carborundum CU IN Equity Uni. EXID IN Equity Exide Inds. JAGP IN Equity MLIFE IN Equity REDI IN Equity SADE IN Equity TPW IN Equity TTAN IN Equity BATA IN Equity NEST IN Equity OBER IN Equity PSYS IN Equity SHOP IN Equity WHIRL IN Equity APNT IN Equity BIL IN Equity BYRCS IN Equity CDH IN Equity CRISIL IN Equity EIM IN Equity ELEQ IN Equity IPCA IN Equity ITC IN Equity KJC IN Equity KKC IN Equity LPC IN Equity SI IN Equity SKB IN Equity TRP IN Equity TTKPT IN Equity Jagran Prakashan Mahindra Life. Redington India Sadbhav Engg. Torrent Power Titan Inds. Bata India Nestle India Oberoi Realty Persistent Sys Shoppers Stop Whirlpool India Asian Paints Balkrishna Inds Bayer Crop Sci. Cadila Health. CRISIL Eicher Motors Elgi Equipment Ipca Labs. ITC Kajaria Ceramics Cummins India Lupin Supreme Inds. GlaxoSmith C H L Torrent Pharma. TTK Prestige
Moderate Valuations**
Rich Valuations***
Improvements in performance over FY10-12 versus FY07-09; and Consistency in performance over FY07-12
Source: Ambit Capital research; * Trading below five-year P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least 2 of these 3 measures) ** Trading below either five-year P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures) *** Trading above five-year P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capital may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to disclaimer section on the last page for further important disclaimer.
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CONTENTS
Philosophy and framework............................................... 3 Performance check on the January 2012s tenbaggers... 5 Quantifying Greatness..... 6 2013s ten bagger list.... 7 Valuations - A long-term perspective!.......13 Appendix: Greatness framework on smaller caps....14
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- Oliver Wendell Holmes This quote appropriately captures the driving philosophy behind our greatness framework that lies at the core of our process of identifying potential tenbaggers. We had unveiled this framework on 19th January 2012 with the first iteration of the Tomorrows tenbaggers note. This framework studies a firms structural strengths by focusing not on absolutes but rather on improvements over a period of time and the consistency of those improvements. A basic sketch of the underlying process behind the making of a great firm has been recaptured in Exhibit 1 below.
Exhibit 1: The greatness framework
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding Financial Services firms and excluding firms with insufficient data) on our greatness score, which consists of six equally weighted headingsinvestments, conversion to sales, pricing discipline, balance sheet discipline, cash generation and EPS improvement, and return ratio improvement. Under each of these six headings, we further look at two kinds of improvements:
Percentage improvements in performance over FY10-12 versus FY07-09; and Consistency in performance over FY07-12 i.e. improvements adjusted for standard deviations.
A complete list of factors that are considered whilst quantifying greatness have been mentioned in Exhibit 2 on the next page.
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Exhibit 2: Factors used for quantifying greatness
Head 1 Investments Criteria a. b. 2 Conversion to sales a. b. c. d. 3 Pricing discipline a. b. 4 Balance sheet discipline a. b. c. d. Cash generation and EPS 5 a. improvement b. c. d. 6 Return ratio improvement a. b. c. d. Above median gross block increase (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Above median gross block increase to standard deviation Improvement in asset turnover (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Positive improvement in asset turnover adjusted for standard deviation Above median sales increase (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Above median sales increase to standard deviation Above median PBIT margin increase (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Above median PBIT margin increase to standard deviation Below median debt-equity decline (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Below median debt-equity decline to standard deviation Above median cash ratio increase (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Above median cash ratio increase to standard deviation Above median CFO increase (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Above median CFO increase to standard deviation Above median EPS increase (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Above median EPS increase to standard deviation Improvement in RoE (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Positive improvement in RoE adjusted for standard deviation Improvement in RoCE (FY10-12 over FY07-09)* Positive improvement in RoCE adjusted for standard deviation
Source: Ambit Capital research. * Rather than comparing one annual endpoint to another annual endpoint (say, FY07 to FY12), we prefer to average the data out over FY07- 09 and compare that to the averaged data from FY10-12. This gives a more consistent picture of performance (as opposed to simply comparing FY07 to FY12).
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding Financial Services firms) on this score to arrive at this years rankings on this measure of structural strength. After removing Financial Services firms and firms with insufficient data, 381 firms from the BSE500 were ranked based on this measure. The highlights from the distribution of these firms on our greatness score are displayed on page 6 but before we go on to that, lets check whether this framework actually delivers in the real world.
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11-Jan-13
Performance (%)
25.3
58 48 47 40 36 20
41.3
66 56 30 10 -0 -4
On average, the ten baggers highlighted by us on 19th January 2012 have clocked nearly 30% returns over the year and hence cleared the 26% threshold (which is the CAGR that a stock needs to compound at per year to be 10x in 10 years). Moreover, the beginning of period valuations has not made much difference to returns as seen from the performance of the three valuation buckets. Even more interestingly, even in a year of upswing for Indian equities (Sensex up 19.5% over the past 12 months), this basket with an average beta of only 0.72 has beaten the Index by 10% points, reinforcing our faith in the framework.
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Quantifying greatness
From the universe of BSE500 firms, after removing Financial Services firms and firms with insufficient data, 381 firms were scored on the six headings highlighted on the previous page. The cut-off for greatness was placed at 67%* and only 77 firms (20% of the total population of 381 firms) could manage a score above this cut-off.
Exhibit 4: Distribution of firms on the greatness score (total population: 381 firms)
Zone of mediocrity 60 211 firms score < 50% Good, not Great 93 firms (between 50% and 67%) Zone of greatness Only 77 firms score > 67%
*The greatness score is calculated by assigning equal weightages to the six factors outlined in Exhibit 2 on page 4. Thus, each of these six factors carries a weightage of 16.7%. The scoring on sub-criteria within each of these factors is binary, with a firm getting either 1 or 0 based on whether it has done better than the respective threshold or not. These scores are then cumulated to arrive at a final greatness score on 100 for the firm.
50%-60%
60%-70%
70%-80%
80%-90%
90%-100%
Greatness Score
In the next exhibit, we present key financial data on the three zones defined above Mediocrity (211 firms), Good but not great (93 firms), and Great (77 firms) based on their degrees of greatness.
Exhibit 5: Zones of greatness - Financial summary
Mediocre Number of firms Mcap (US$ mn) Share price (3-year CAGR) Gross block (3-year CAGR) Sales (3-year CAGR) EPS (3-year CAGR) CFO (3-year CAGR) PBIT Margin (3-year average) RoE (3-year average) RoCE (3-year average) Net debt equity Trailing 12 month P/E Trailing 12 month P/B Trailing 12 month EV/EBITDA 211 509 -9% 15% 13% 1% 3% 14% 13% 14% 0.7 18.5 1.6 9.4 Good but not great 93 590 7% 18% 20% 20% 11% 17% 19% 19% 0.2 18.7 2.7 9.7 Great 77 795 23% 16% 22% 32% 24% 17% 26% 27% 0.2 17.2 4.4 9.4
Source: Ambit Capital research, Capitaline; Note: All figures are based on median values of the firms analysed.
With regard to fundamentals, the superiority of the great firms compared with the other two groups is evident in Exhibit 5. Inspite of that, on P/E and EV/EBITDA, the great firms trade in line with the rest of the market. However, on P/B, the great firms command a hefty premium to the rest of the market. Of these 77 great firms, we identify the ones that perform the best on our accounting and corporate governance filters, and this gives us our final list of 30 great companies. We present these 30 potential ten baggers in the next section.
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28 firms were removed by our accounting filter (for a full exposition of our accounting filter, please refer to our 4th Jan 2013 note which explains how our forensic accounting model works); 2 firms were removed for not meeting ADV requirement of US$0.2mn; and 17 firms were removed on suspect corporate governance or structural issues with the underlying business.
After identifying the 30 great firms that exhibit the ingredients required to be tomorrows winners, we run a valuation check to ascertain if they are currently trading at reasonable prices for outright investments. In our view, whilst valuations do matter on a tactical basis, how the underlying fundamentals evolve for the firm over long periods plays a more important role in determining returns than the beginning of the period valuation itself. We discuss this point in detail in the final section of this note. Here, we categorise these stocks into three buckets based on their relative attractiveness on valuations with respect to their own history. We compare these firms with respect to their five-year average valuations on three metricsP/B, P/E and EV/EBITDA. We find 8 firms to be inexpensive (on at least two of the three metrics): Carborundum, Torrent Power, Sadbhav Engineering, Mahindra Life, Exide, Redington, Titan and Jagaran Prakashan. However, for the long term all thirty stocks remain candidates to be ten baggers from our perspective (as we show in the note, todays valuations do not have a significant effect on long term returns!). We have bottom-up coverage with BUYs on Redington, Sadbhav, Torrent Power, Oberoi Realty, Asian Paints, Balkrishna Industries, Cadila Healthcare, Eicher Motors, Cummins India and TTK Prestige. We should also point out that 3 months ago, in our bottom-up coverage, we turned SELLers on Exide Industries. Whilst we continue to be admirers of the firms franchise, our SELL was driven by managements reluctance in CY12 to host postresults conference calls and its inability to offer convincing explanations for its recent weak results when our Auto analyst, Ashvin Shetty, did speak to them bilaterally.
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Exhibit 6: Ten baggers - Valuation perspective
Trailing valuations Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Ticker Attractive Valuations* CU IN Equity EXID IN Equity JAGP IN Equity MLIFE IN Equity REDI IN Equity SADE IN Equity TPW IN Equity TTAN IN Equity Moderate Valuations** BATA IN Equity NEST IN Equity OBER IN Equity PSYS IN Equity SHOP IN Equity WHIRL IN Equity Rich Valuations*** APNT IN Equity BIL IN Equity BYRCS IN Equity CDH IN Equity CRISIL IN Equity EIM IN Equity ELEQ IN Equity IPCA IN Equity ITC IN Equity KJC IN Equity KKC IN Equity LPC IN Equity SI IN Equity SKB IN Equity TRP IN Equity TTKPT IN Equity Asian Paints Balkrishna Inds Bayer Crop Sci. Cadila Health. CRISIL Eicher Motors Elgi Equipment Ipca Labs. ITC Kajaria Ceramics Cummins India Lupin Supreme Inds. GlaxoSmith C H L Torrent Pharma TTK Prestige 7,659 533 891 3,248 1,325 1,387 281 1,156 40,518 315 2,640 4,791 717 2,978 1,160 749 39.3 9.8 21.9 25.8 33.6 23.6 23.8 20.0 32.1 18.7 22.9 26.3 15.2 41.4 19.1 32.8 13.8 2.3 5.6 6.3 18.8 4.7 3.7 4.6 10.7 5.5 6.2 5.9 5.0 13.0 4.7 11.1 24.9 7.4 14.6 16.4 21.7 12.1 13.0 12.1 21.2 8.4 21.2 15.1 8.2 26.6 11.3 20.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bata India Nestle India Oberoi Realty Persistent Sys Shoppers Stop Whirlpool India 1,029 8,573 1,704 385 670 643 27.3 49.5 18.0 12.8 78.4 25.2 9.2 32.6 2.3 2.3 5.5 6.3 19.6 26.8 13.2 6.3 31.5 12.6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Carborundum Uni. Exide Inds. Jagran Prakashan Mahindra Life. Redington India Sadbhav Engg. Torrent Power Titan Inds. 504 2,236 659 303 635 373 1,553 4,338 14.4 24.1 18.3 13.4 11.1 23.2 9.7 35.9 2.7 4.3 4.4 1.4 2.4 1.7 1.4 14.2 9.6 13.6 12.4 10.5 8.2 11.7 8.0 24.8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 Company MCap (US$ mn) P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Cheap w.r.t history? 1 for "yes") P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Overall, cheap on how many counts?
Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, Ambit Capital research. * Trading below five-year average P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least 2 of these 3 measures) ** Trading below either five-year average P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures) *** Trading above five-year average P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA
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Exhibit 7: Ten baggers - Financial snapshot
Sr. Bloom No. ticker Company Sector Gross Net PBIT Mcap 3-yr EPS (3- CFO (3- RoE(3- RoCE (33M ADV Block Sales margin (US$ price year year year year (US$ mn) (3-year (3-year (3-year mn) CAGR CAGR) CAGR) avg) avg) CAGR) CAGR) avg) Net Debt FY14 FY14 Equity P/E P/B (FY12)
Attractive Valuations* 1 CU IN 2 EXID IN 3 JAGP IN 4 MLIFE IN 5 REDI IN 6 SADE IN 7 TPW IN 8 TTAN IN Carborundum Uni. Exide Inds. Jagran Prakashan Mahindra Life. Industrials Auto Anc Media Realty 504 2,236 659 303 635 373 1,553 4,338 0.4 5.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 21% 8% -6% 5% 12% 3% 8% 12% 36% 10% 72% 29% 29% 10% 22% 12% 18% 27% 19% 38% 23% 31% 28% 30% 23% 22% 22% 35% 46% 54% 62% 6% 24% 19% 120% 95% 34% -1% 22% 26% 28% 9% 20% 12% 24% 46% 24% 40% 32% 11% 18% 12% 21% 61% 16.3 16.4 24.7 30.2 2.7 13.5 25.7 8.9 0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.3 1.2 2.8 0.8 -0.7 12.4 17.2 15.4 10.9 8.6 22.3 9.9 26.1 2.2 3.5 3.7 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 9.3
Redington India IT Sadbhav Engg. Infrastructure Torrent Power Titan Inds. Utilities Retail
Moderate Valuations** 9 BATA IN 10 NEST IN 11 OBER IN 12 PSYS IN 13 SHOP IN Bata India Nestle India Oberoi Realty Persistent Sys Shoppers St. Retail FMCG Realty IT Retail 1,029 8,573 1,704 385 670 643 4.2 2.4 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.7 65% 25% 9% 10% 33% 27% 12% 22% 54% 21% 30% 7% 16% 20% 25% 19% 29% 16% 65% 24% 22% 24% 42% 20% -17% 25% 38% 141% 23% 23% 11% 53% 11.5 17.9 65.4 19.9 3.3 7.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.9 -0.2 25.6 36.8 10.0 10.0 76.7 17.1 6.9 22.3 1.8 1.7 6.9 4.1
Consumer 14 WHIRL IN Whirlpool India Durable Rich Valuations*** 15 APNT IN 16 BIL IN Asian Paints FMCG
7,659 533 891 3,248 1,325 1,387 281 1,156 40,518 315 2,640 4,791 717 2,978 1,160 749
5.3 0.6 0.5 2.1 0.7 1.4 0.2 2.4 30.6 0.4 1.8 8.6 0.2 2.3 1.0
35% 41% 33% 25% 31% 64% 27% 35% 31% 63% 20% 28% 58% 41% 23%
12% 18% 2% 21% 21% 13% 15% 20% 10% 16% 12% 25% 11% 6% 18% 39%
21% 30% 18% 23% 16% 49% 22% 22% 17% 25% 5% 23% 21% 20% 19% 40%
36% 54% 14% 28% 15% 58% 14% 41% 21% 108% 8% 17% 39% 23% 15% 73%
27% -36% 46% 32% 16% 184% 14% 22% 20% 53% 24% 6% 16% 42% 25% 13%
45% 30% 24% 34% 43% 15% 26% 26% 32% 28% 31% 29% 40% 31% 30% 49%
61% 25% 32% 27% 57% 31% 39% 25% 47% 26% 43% 26% 36% 48% 27% 69%
15.4 16.9 11.0 18.9 35.2 8.8 12.6 18.4 23.8 12.0 19.3 17.7 12.8 18.5 17.9 15.6
-0.2 1.2 -0.5 0.7 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.4 1.0 -0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1
30.0 7.4 20.4 18.9 25.6 17.9 16.3 13.9 24.6 12.1 19.8 18.5 11.3 31.7 13.6 24.2
10.1 1.6 4.2 4.7 15.9 3.5 3.0 3.3 9.0 3.7 5.4 4.3 3.4 9.7 3.4 7.6
17 BYRCS IN Bayer Crop Sci. Fertilisers 18 CDH IN 19 CRISIL IN 20 EIM IN 21 ELEQ IN 22 IPCA IN 23 ITC IN 24 KJC IN 25 KKC IN 26 LPC IN 27 SI IN 28 SKB IN 29 TRP IN 30 TTKPT IN Cadila Health. CRISIL Eicher Motors Pharma Miscellaneous Auto
Elgi Equipment Capital Goods Ipca Labs. ITC Kajaria Ceramics Pharma FMCG Miscellaneous
GlaxoSmith CHL FMCG Torrent Pharma. Pharma TTK Prestige Consumer Durable
5.5 102%
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Exhibit 8: Ten baggers - Forward-looking data using consensus estimates
Sr. No. Ticker 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 CU IN Equity EXID IN Equity JAGP IN Equity MLIFE IN Equity REDI IN Equity SADE IN Equity TPW IN Equity TTAN IN Equity BATA IN Equity NEST IN Equity OBER IN Equity PSYS IN Equity SHOP IN Equity WHIRL IN Equity APNT IN Equity BIL IN Equity BYRCS IN Equity CDH IN Equity CRISIL IN Equity EIM IN Equity ELEQ IN Equity IPCA IN Equity ITC IN Equity KJC IN Equity KKC IN Equity LPC IN Equity SI IN Equity SKB IN Equity TRP IN Equity TTKPT IN Equity Company Carborundum Uni. Exide Inds. Jagran Prakashan Mahindra Life. Redington India Sadbhav Engg. Torrent Power Titan Inds. Bata India Nestle India Oberoi Realty Persistent Sys Shoppers Stop Whirlpool India Asian Paints Balkrishna Inds. Bayer Crop Sci. Cadila Health. CRISIL Eicher Motors Elgi Equipment Ipca Labs. ITC Kajaria Ceramics Cummins India Lupin Supreme Inds. GlaxoSmith C H L Torrent Pharma TTK Prestige Mcap (US$ mn) 504 2,236 659 303 635 373 1,553 4,338 1,029 8,573 1,704 385 670 643 7,659 533 891 3,248 1,325 1,387 281 1,156 40,518 315 2,640 4,791 717 2,978 1,160 749 3-month ADV (US$ mn) 0.4 5.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.9 9.2 4.2 2.4 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.7 5.3 0.6 0.5 2.1 0.7 1.4 0.2 2.4 30.6 0.4 1.8 8.6 0.2 2.3 1.0 5.5 Next 3 years estimated EPS CAGR (%) 9% 28% 14% 17% 20% 9% 5% 24% 29% 21% 39% 17% 80% 21% 20% 21% 31% 21% 11% 19% 21% 26% 19% 32% 12% 23% 21% 20% 25% 25% Next 3 years estimated BVPS CAGR (%) 17% 16% 12% 11% 23% 8% 12% 31% 25% 25% 18% 20% 9% 29% 23% 27% 20% 22% 25% 16% 15% 24% 14% 28% 7% 23% 26% 19% 24% 36%
10
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Exhibit 9: Tenbaggers - Business activity description
Sr. Ticker no. 1 CU IN Equity Company Carborundum Uni. Business Description Carborundum Universal manufactures refractories and electromineral grains. The company produces coated and bonded abrasives, super refractories, aluminum oxide grains, calcined bauxite, electrocast refractories, silicon carbide grains, and industrial ceramic products. Exide Industries manufactures a wide range of lead and electric storage batteries. The company's makes batteries for automobiles, railways, aircrafts, power stations, telephone exchanges, and other uses. Jagran Prakashan publishes a daily newspaper. The company publishes and distributes Dainik Jagran. Mahindra Lifespace Developers specialises in the construction and operation of commercial and residential property complexes, projects management services and business centres. Redington (India) is a supply chain solution provider. The company distributes information technology (IT) products and mobile handsets and accessories and provides logistics, supply chain management and other support services. Sadbhav Engineering provides construction services, with a focus on irrigation, roads and highways, and mining operations. The company constructs earthen dams and canals, rehabilitates and upgrades roads, and excavates overburden of mineral properties. Torrent Power generates, transmits and distributes power. The company also implements large power projects in India. Titan Industries manufactures and retails jewellery and watches. The company produces quartz analogue electronic watches, watch movements, step motors, and watch cases. Titan Industries serves customers across the United States. Bata India manufactures a wide range of leather, rubber/canvas and plastic footwear products. The company also manufactures sports apparel and leather accessories. Bata India sells its products through its chain of company owned retail stores in India, as well as to businesses in the US, United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East and the Far East. Nestle India manufactures branded milk products and other food products. The company's products include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces. Oberoi Realty is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai and focused on premium developments. The company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the respective income or market segment. Persistent Systems offers outsourced software product development. The company offer services that include testing, support, and professional services. Shoppers Stop operates a chain of retail shops. The company retails men's, women's, and children's clothing, cosmetics and skin and hair-care products, home appliances, housewares, linens, luggage, jewellery, and accessories. Whirlpool of India manufactures appliances. The company produces refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, microwave ovens, water purifiers, built-in appliances and other products. Asian Paints manufactures a wide range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black & synthetic resins. The company, through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products, which are used in the manufacture of rubber tyres. Balkrishna Industries manufactures automobile tyres and tubes. The company also manufactures different varieties of paper & paper boards and processes synthetic textiles. Bayer Cropscience is involved in the area of crop protection, non-agricultural pest-control, seed and plant biotechnology. Cadila Healthcare manufactures and markets healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, diagnostics, health and dietetic foods, animal healthcare to cosmeceuticals. The company's products are available in the form of tablets, capsules, injections, liquids, dry syrups, powders, granules, and ointments. Crisil operates a credit rating agency in India. The company specialises in the areas of risk identification, classification and assessment, across a broad spectrum of industries. Eicher Motors manufactures light commercial vehicles, which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures tractors, two-wheelers and automotive gears.
EXID IN Equity
Exide Inds.
3 4
JAGP IN Equity
Jagran Prakashan
REDI IN Equity
Redington India
TPW IN Equity
Torrent Power
BATA IN Equity
Bata India
10
NEST IN Equity
Nestle India
11
12
PSYS IN Equity
Persistent Sys
13
14
15
16 17
BIL IN Equity
Balkrishna Inds
18
CDH IN Equity
Cadila Health.
19
20
EIM IN Equity
Eicher Motors
11
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Company
Business Description Elgi Equipments manufactures reciprocating and screw-type air compressors, diesel engines, generators and pumps, garage equipment, auto products, and heat pressure cleaners. Elgi markets a range of wheel balancers, oil suction units, AC recovery plants, mobile service units, and pasteuriser and bottle washers. The company operates in India and markets its products globally. Ipca Laboratories operates a pharmaceutical company, which distributes products to more than 75 countries worldwide. The Group's products include finished dosage forms, drug delivery systems, bulk drugs and intermediates. ITC has a diversified presence in cigarettes, hotels, paperboards & specialty papers, packaging, agri business, packaged foods & confectionery, branded apparel, greeting cards, and other FMCG products. Kajaria Ceramics manufactures glazed and unglazed ceramic tiles. The company sells its products in India and also exports them to other countries. Cummins India manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The company also manufactures power generation sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and airfield buses. In addition, Cummins India operates a computerised and fully-equipped research and development facility. Lupin manufactures bulk actives and formulations. Its principal bulk actives manufactured include Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and cardiovasculars. The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are made out of plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine. Supreme Industries manufactures industrial and engineered moulded products and storage and material handling crates. The company also manufactures chemicals, multi-layer sheets, multi-layer films, packaging films and expanded polyethylene foam, PVC pipes and fittings, moulded furniture, and disposable EPS containers.
21
ELEQ IN Equity
Elgi Equipment
22
IPCA IN Equity
Ipca Labs.
23
ITC IN Equity
ITC
24
KJC IN Equity
Kajaria Ceramics
25
KKC IN Equity
Cummins India
26
LPC IN Equity
Lupin
27
SI IN Equity
Supreme Inds.
28
SKB IN Equity
Glaxo SmithKline Consumer Healthcare manufactures and sells malted milk food products. The GlaxoSmith C H L Group's products, which include energy & protein products, cereals, baby foods, and ghee & butter, are sold under the brand names Horlicks, Boost, Viva, Brylcream, Eno, Maltova and Gopika. Torrent Pharmaceuticals manufactures bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations. The company's formulations include cardiovascular, psychotropic and antibiotic drugs whilst its bulk drugs include atenolol, ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin. Torrent Pharmaceuticals has wholly owned subsidiaries in several regulated and less-regulated international markets. TTK Prestige manufactures a range of domestic appliances. The Group's products include pressure cookers and non-stick cookware, stainless steel and glass vacuum flasks, and gas stoves.
29
TRP IN Equity
Torrent Pharma
30
Source: Bloomberg
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5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Source: Ambit Capital research, FY02 FY12 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex
The value of R-square makes the story self-explanatory. A zero for this value indicates that the beginning of period valuations do not play any meaningful role in explaining stock returns over the next ten years. This holds true for both P/B and P/E as the measures of valuation.
Exhibit 11: Valuation impact on long-term returns - P/E
60% 40% FY02-FY12 returns 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% FY02 Price to Earnings R2 = 0.001
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Source: Ambit Capital research, FY02 FY12 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex
In our note The return of value investing (dated 11th October 2012), we had explained why we expect value stocks to do well over the next few quarters. Hence, from this list of Great 30 stocks, we would expect the most attractively priced bucket to do better over the immediate term. However, the two exhibits above clearly suggest that from a long-term perspective each of these stocks stand a fair chance of being a ten bagger. Indeed, as mentioned on page 5, our 2012 ten baggers did not have any correlation between the returns generated over the past 12 months and the beginning of period valuations.
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14
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Buy Sell
Disclaimer
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