Indo-Lanka relations: some nave Lankan expectations

By Lynn Ockersz-December 10, 2013, 8:06 pm If some observers in Sri Lanka are expecting a resounding BJP victory at Indias next genera e ection! sometime ear y next year! t"ey cannot be fau ted because recent state eve po s in India seem to be bearing out t"is prediction# In t"ese po s! inc uding t"ose "e d in $e% &e "i! t"e 'rand O d Party of India! t"e (ongress Party! "as suffered defeat and t"e expectation t"at t"e (ongress %ou d be routed at t"e next Lok Sab"a po s seems to be %e founded at present# )"anks to t"e vibrancy of t"e democratic process in India! po itica parties at t"e "e m of governance in India c"ange periodica y and t"is is somet"ing defenders of democracy t"e %or d over need to %arm y %e come# )"anks to t"e re ative stabi ity and strengt" of Indias democratic institutions and t"e acumen of ordinary men and %omen! t"e Indian pub ic is not burdened %it" po itica parties! a iances and persona ities %"o seem to en*oy inex"austib e +staying po%er# Long stays at t"e "ig"er reac"es of po itica po%er corrupt and inordinate y ong stays at t"e top! corrupt po%er-%ie ders abso ute y# Besides! t"e Indian pub ic is not sadd ed %it" po itica parties and + eaders %"o seem to be supreme y contended! anguis"ing smug y in t"e ranks of t"e opposition for years on end! so muc" so t"eir defeat at po s becomes a fair y routine matter# )"erefore! t"e Indian peop e and t"eir democratic "ea t" need to be t"oug"t of very appreciative y# It is up to Sri Lanka and t"e ot"er neig"bours of India to re ate constructive y %it" t"e atter! %"i e India must do ike%ise %it" "er neig"bours in Sout" ,sia and t"ese processes must be persisted %it"! regard ess of %"ic" po itica party or a iance "appens to ru e

India# -nsuring t"e f ouris"ing of t"e S,,.( spirit or of regiona co-operation is one of t"e c"a enges facing t"e Sout" ,sian region and S,,.( needs to address t"is issue urgent y and co ective y# /nfortunate y! regiona economic betterment seems to be continuous y e uding Sout" ,sia and it %ou d be in t"e interests of Sout" ,sia if S,,.( is revamped to improve t"e co ective %e being of t"e S,,.( -ig"t# .egard ess of %"ic" party or a iance comes to po%er in India next! Indias neig"bours are ob iged to %ork to%ards t"ese regiona goa s a ong %it" "er# (urrent y! "opes are soaring in some Sri Lankan 0uarters! particu ar y among t"ose touting +ma*oritarian c"auvinism or patriotism of t"e crudest kind! t"at t"e BJP! under $arendra 1odi! %i resounding y triump" at t"e next genera e ection and t"e (ongress summari y s"o%n t"e door by t"e Indian voter# Some Sri Lankans "ave reason to be disenc"anted %it" t"e present (ongress administration in India! for reasons %"ic" are genera y kno%n! but "o% unassai ab e is t"e be ief t"at a c"ange of governing parties in India next year %ou d ead to c"anges in Indias po icy to%ards Sri Lanka in particu ar and to%ards t"e region and t"e %or d in genera 2 3e need to reco ect %"at are regarded as "ome trut"s on foreign po icy formu ation and practice %"en taking-up t"ese 0uestions for de iberation# , countrys foreign po icy is conceptua ized and imp emented to serve its nationa or best interests and t"ere is no getting a%ay from t"is "ard trut"# Since maintaining stabi ity! a% and order in )ami $adu and containing %"at +experts ca +fissiparous tendencies %it"in t"e atter state are prime concerns for t"e Indian centre! it is "ig" y un ike y t"at Indias po icy as regards t"e Sri Lankan conf ict %ou d c"ange drastica y under a BJP- ed centra administration# )"e Indian centre %i never compromise its vita interests in )ami $adu for Sri Lankas sake and t"is rea ity s"ou d be countenanced by Sri Lanka# -xpressed in %ords genera y used by "umans! +fissiparous tendencies! in t"e Indian context! basica y refer to po itica campaigns %"ic" aim at separating a state from t"e rest of t"e country# )"is being t"e case! no Indian administration %ou d ensure t"e bui d-up of ground conditions in )ami $adu %"ic" cou d give rise to even a %"iff of separatism or disaffection among t"e ma*ority community of )ami $adu# ,fter a ! keeping t"e Indian /nion stab e and intact is centra to Indias nationa interest and one cannot fau t t"e Indian centre for going to any egitimate engt"s to ac"ieve t"is# In ot"er %ords! a future BJP-contro ed centra government is un ike y to deviate very muc" from t"e po icies Indian centra governments "ave been fo o%ing t"us far %it" regard to Sri Lanka in genera and "er +$ationa 4uestion in particu ar# )"ese po icies may undergo some s ig"t modifications but no ma*or over"au in po icy cou d be expected# 5or instance! t"ere is un ike y to be a deviation from t"e position t"at t"e 67t" ,mendment and a it entai s s"ou d be imp emented in Sri Lanka# )"e Indian position on %"at are ca ed accountabi ity issues in Sri Lanka is a so un ike y to c"ange essentia y! a t"oug" a more nuanced po icy in t"is regard cou d be expected# In s"ort! no ma*or po icy over"au s cou d be expected *ust for Sri Lankas sake# Peace and stabi ity in )ami $adu %ou d be $e% &e "is over-riding consideration#

So! t"ose sections in Sri Lanka %"ic" are a ready eup"oric over a BJP victory in India! over t"e expectation t"at a BJP- ed government %ou d! some"o%! prove a sou mate of sorts for t"e Sri Lankan state! are being na8ve in t"e extreme# $o suc" situation is ike y to be +on t"e cards! a t"oug" a future BJP government %i continue Indias "it"erto genera po icy of friends"ip to%ards Sri Lanka# Indo-Lanka cooperative pro*ects %ou d a so continue undisturbed# -ven in t"e case of domestic po icy! it is very un ike y t"at a BJP administration %ou d rigid y fo o% %"at is referred to as t"e 9indutva po icy# ( oser accommodation of t"e pressing concerns of t"e 9indu ma*ority cou d be expected but it is un ike y t"at t"e minorities in India %ou d see t"eir vita interests! suc" as t"ose on security! going unaddressed by t"e centre# One cou d expect a po itica party to take t"e %ider interests of t"e country into consideration %"en it comes to po%er and a pursuit of po icies %"ic" are ess divisive cou d be expected of t"e BJP# , vie% of Indo-Lanka re ations %"ic" is narro% y focused on (o ombo cou d prove to be i advised# India is today not on y t"e top-most regiona po%er but a g oba po%er of exceptiona dimensions# In its dea ings %it" regiona states! India %ou d tend to focus strong y on its ties %it" ("ina and Pakistan! %"i e continuing "er friend y re ations %it" "er ot"er neig"bours in Sout" ,sia# (urrent y! India is engaged in a successfu fence :mending exercise %it" ("ina# Bot" ("ina and India "ave "e ped t"e centre of gravity of t"e %or d economy to s"ift to t"e Sout" of t"e g obe from t"e $ort"# )"ey stand to gain from stepped-up bi atera economic ties# Besides! Indias economic ties %it" t"e 3est are ike y to receive a marked boost under a reported y business-friend y $arendra 1odi- ed administration# , BJP- ed governments foreign po icy cou d prove to be more broad-based t"an expected and in t"is pursuit India is ike y to p ace primacy on stab e ties %it" t"e 3est# S"e may not to compromise "er ties %it" t"e 3est for t"e sake of sma er p ayers in Sout" ,sia#