Sector Review:

Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models
Primary Credit Analysts: Connie Wong, Singapore (65) 6239-6353; connie.wong@standardandpoors.com Xiaohong Chen, Beijing (86) 10-6569-2925; xiaohong.chen@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contacts: Terry Sham, CFA, FRM, Hong Kong (852) 2533-3590; terry.sham@standardandpoors.com Anna C Kong, Hong Kong (852) 2533-3571; anna.kong@standardandpoors.com

Table Of Contents
Capitalization Will Be Stretched Uncertain Growth Path For Life Insurers Non-Life Insurers Are Branching Out High Investment In Banking Raises Concentration Risk Evolving Regulations Will Be Largely Beneficial In The Long Run Appendix Related Criteria And Research

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Sector Review:

Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models
China's insurance industry may not be able to match its stellar growth over the past decade, in which premiums have increased nine-fold. Regulatory changes, market competition, and scarcity of capital will likely curb ambitious expansion plans over the next two years, at least. A haltering economy is an additional brake. But that's not the end of the story. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services believes insurers are no longer just focused on pure growth. Many players are becoming more profit oriented, with a higher awareness of risk management and willingness to diversify into new product areas. And that should mean more sustainable growth in the longer term. Positive signs are already emerging. Recently released earnings results for the first nine months of the year show major life insurers are gradually recovering from a dip in profitability since 2011. Non-life players are performing even better, with likely premium growth of 15%-20% over the next 12-24 months. Underwriting performances are holding up well, as shown in an average combined ratio of 98% (a level below 100% indicates profitability). Overview We estimate that Chinese insurers could face a shortfall of RMB200 billion-RMB270 billion (US$32 billion-US$45 billion) over the next two years to keep capitalization at an adequate confidence level, based on our assumptions. We expect credit trends in the life industry to maintain a negative bias, reflecting dampened growth, capital constraints, and potential investment volatility. However, overall profitability has recently improved. Growth in the non-life sector remains strong, with support from auto sales. But the sector is subject to increasing catastrophe-risk exposure. Chinese insurers have high concentration risk in assets associated with the banking sector. Overall, investment appetites appear prudent. Tightening regulatory requirements are likely to benefit the industry in the long run.

We see a continued negative bias in credit trends for life insurers over the next 12 months because of the slower growth, volatile operating performances, and modest capitalization of many players. Restrictions on bancassurance products will likely continue to limit premium growth over the next two years. However, credit trends for the life sector may stabilize if recently improved operating performances and growth continue for the next year and capitalization levels don't significantly deteriorate. Credit trends in the non-life industry appear stable, given good operating performances and growth momentum. But modest capitalization levels and fierce competition remain moderating factors for many non-life players.

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

Capitalization Will Be Stretched

We estimate that Chinese insurers could face a shortfall of between Chinese renminbi (RMB) 200 billion and RMB270 billion (US$32 billion-US$45 billion) over the next two years to keep capitalization at our benchmark calculation for a 'BBB' capital adequacy confidence level, according to our risk-based analysis. The shortfall means the industry needs additional capital to support the continued growth of assets and cover the level of underwriting exposure, liabilities, and other operational risks. The shortfall could be even higher if the potential funds from the capital markets dry up or are much lower than we expect. Our forecast assumptions (see appendix) are based on the insurers' financial statements for 2012, which in turn are based on Chinese generally accepted accounting principles. We assumed the same magnitude of equity funding for the next two years based on 2012 figures. In our capital analysis, we do not include non-hybrid debt as part of the total adjusted capital. Our capitalization estimate includes aggregate figures for the industry and those for insurers with capital needs over the next two years. We note that some insurers at our 'BBB' confidence level have a surplus of capital.
Table 1

Chinese Insurers: Potential Capital Needs (2013-2014f)

--Capital needs-Shortfall to meet "adequate" capital level at 'BBB' confidence level: 5 = (3) - accumulated (4) 320 63 63 265 214

(bil. RMB) 2012 2013f 2014f

Life* (1) 207 217 227

Non-life* (2) 113 111 113

Industry total: 3 = (1)+(2) 320 328 340

Funding from capital markets - equities (4)

f--Forecast. *Based on 'BBB' confidence level capital analysis. Forecasts based on the assumptions listed in appendix.

Why capitalization levels are deteriorating

Persistent business growth over the past decade means capital growth lags the risk-adjusted capital needed to cover expanding assets and liabilities. Chinese insurers need capital to expand, and cover potential business and investment risks. A slowdown in the pace of growth for the life industry could ease the strain on capital. However, we expect capitalization to remain under pressure, given the continued expansion of the insurers' balance sheets, significant asset-liability mismatches, and other risks. We anticipate that for smaller life insurers, growth is likely to be much higher than for the large insurers. For the non-life sector, larger insurers have higher new-capital needs than smaller players because of their strong growth and exposure to potential natural catastrophe risk--even though nearly 80% of their business is related to motor insurance. We believe the capital strength of the industry is still modest compared with the stronger level in most developed markets. To beef up their regulatory solvency ratio and to support growth, Chinese insurers raised a total of RMB63 billion in equity funds and about RMB73 billion in subordinated debt last year, based on the regulator's reported figures. We don't consider this debt as equity in our capital analysis.

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

Uncertain Growth Path For Life Insurers

Life insurers' shifting growth strategies over recent years will take time to kick in. The segment's good growth in the first nine months of 2013 was mainly attributable to a short-term attempt to boost premium income through single-premium products. Although the strategy helped to increase volume, the insurers' profitability and capital could be volatile because of the lower profit margins and high competition for those products offered. To achieve quality growth, more and more life players are focusing on longer-term products with regular premiums. These products have higher margins than single premiums. At the same time, insurers are strengthening their agency forces to lower the portion of bancassurance business. However, we expect the process to be gradual as it will take time to build market demand and the distribution framework.

Bancassurance control limits constrain growth

We expect the life insurance segment to grow more slowly over the next two years compared with the past decade, given restrictions on bancassurance products and the economic slowdown. Bancassurance products traditionally account for about half of premiums in the sector, and up to 70% for smaller players. Under revised regulations that took effect two years ago, only bank staff can sell insurance products in bank outlets, each bank outlet can promote the products of only three insurers, and bank and insurance products cannot be bundled together. In addition, increased bank deposit rates in recent years have made insurance products less attractive than bank deposits. We still see strong growth momentum among some smaller players from mainly short-term insurance products or those that most resemble bank deposits. These products have lower profit margins and are less sustainable in terms of growth than traditional insurance products. The largest insurers will likely see the greatest slowdown, but we still expect the top four players to have a combined market share of about 70%.

Price reforms will be manageable

In our opinion, recent pricing reforms in the life insurance will have a limited impact on the industry's growth and performance over the next two years. Effective Aug. 5, 2013, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission removed the 2.5% pricing cap on interest rates on non-participating life insurance products. We don't expect a substantial drop in the pricing of non-participating (excluding universal life) products, which are partially deregulated. The surrender rate that can follow price changes should be manageable, in our view. The surrender of policies is slightly increasing amid currently modest capital market conditions and ongoing policy maturities, and this should underscore the importance of cash flow adequacy. Overall, we think the industry has good liquidity to cover its payment requirements in the coming 12 months. This is especially true for large players, given their high proportion of liquid assets, including cash, deposits, high-quality bonds, and common stock. Small to medium-sized players may have weaker liquidity than large insurers because of their relatively weaker-quality assets, which are less marketable. However, their liquidity remains sound. In our base-case scenario, the market value of bonds drops 10% and that of common stocks drops 50% when 50% of insurance liabilities come due.

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

Underdeveloped risk management

Insurers' risk-management frameworks are less developed than those of advanced markets and remain a major constraint on the sector's overall credit profile. Although the regulator has tightened its risk-control requirements, most companies still have limited historical data to assess risks, and their risk-management systems lack sophistication without a strategic approach. High operating risks for large life insurers can be an issue even after they have adhered to regulatory controls and are developing internal risk strategies. In addition, an asset-liability mismatch remains significant for almost all the life players in the market.
Table 2

Business Statistics Of Chinese Life Insurance Sector

(%) Total premiums (bil. RMB) Premium growth rate Surrender ratio Premium breakdown by products Participating life insurance Universal insurance General life insurance Health insurance and accident insurance Investment-linked insurance Total 44.9 17 20.3 9.8 8 100 51.8 19.8 13.4 9.2 5.8 100 65 13 11.8 8.4 1.8 100 71 10.7 9 7.8 1.5 100 80.2 0.8 9.9 9 0.1 100 78.9 0.9 9.7 10.5 0 100 2007 494.7 21.9 4.7 2008 734.3 48.5 3.9 2009 2010 2011* 956 9.6 2.6 2012 995.5 4.1 2.8

814.4 1,050.10 11 3.5 28.9 3.1

Premium breakdown by distribution channel Individual agents Bancassurance Direct sales Intermediaries Total 52.4 34.3 12 1.3 100 42 48.9 8 1.1 100 43.8 47.8 6.6 1.8 100 41.1 50 7.1 1.8 100 44.6 47.8 5.7 1.9 100 48.6 41.5 7.4 2.5 100

*Revised accounting standards since 2011. Source: Annual reports of China's insurance markets.

Non-Life Insurers Are Branching Out

Fast growth in motor insurance next year should be a key growth driver for the non-life industry. We expect auto sales in China to rise 10% over the next two years, following 16.7% in the first nine months of this year. Growth in motor insurance premiums is likely to lag that of the auto sales by about a year, based on historical trends (see chart 1).

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

Chart 1

Non-motor insurance business has also increased gradually in recent years as more players attempt to diversify their business portfolios. In particular, agricultural insurance in China has increased significantly. This business line is now profitable, and is likely to achieve rapid growth over the next few years. But the segment's performance can be volatile and subject to unexpected natural disasters. Inadequate pricing--or underestimated risk profiles--of commercial property and marine lines in China are likely to continue, in our view, because of stiff competition. However, we maintain our expectation that the sector's combined ratio will be 97%-98% over the next two years. We continue to expect good profitability in China's non-life sector over the next two years. Profit margins have declined modestly since 2012 due to a spike in claim payments and higher acquisition costs. For the next two years, underwriting costs are likely to continue to rise as a result of strong competition with a squeeze on profit margins. Higher claim costs arising from inflation and new regulations on claim practices could also cut into profits. However, we don't expect the overall industry performance to deteriorate significantly, given that the market doesn't freely set the premium rates of motor insurance, and more and more players focus on profitability rather than just pure growth. Meanwhile, under regulatory requirements, a uniform motor insurance information platform will be used to record the claims history for individual motor vehicles, which will work as a pricing reference. We expect the platform to help prevent excessive competition once the government deregulates motor insurance pricing.

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

Ongoing challenges include insurers' increasing risk profiles resulting from more frequent unexpected natural disasters, together with relatively high information risks.
Table 3

Business Statistics Of Chinese Non-Life Insurance Sector

(%) Total premiums (bil. RMB) Premium growth rate Loss ratio Expense ratio Combined ratio Premium breakdown Motor insurance Commercial property insurance Agriculture insurance Liability insurance Credit insurance Accident insurance Cargo insurance Others Total 71.1 9 2.5 3.2 1.7 3.6 3 5.9 100 69.6 8.6 4.5 3.3 1.5 3.1 2.9 6.5 100 72 7.4 4.5 3.1 2.3 2.5 2 6.2 100 74.6 6.7 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.1 2 5.9 100 73.3 6.9 3.6 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 6.4 100 72.4 6.5 4.4 3.3 2.9 2.3 1.8 6.4 100 2007 208.7 32 N.A. 39.9 N.A. 2008 244.6 17.3 N.A. 36.9 N.A. 2009 299.3 22.4 66.3 38.2 104.5 2010 402.7 34.6 63.2 34.2 97.4 2011 2012 478.1 18.7 61.2 34.2 95.4 553 15.7 N.A. 35.9 N.A.

N.A.--Not available. Source: Annual reports of China insurance markets.

High Investment In Banking Raises Concentration Risk

The investment portfolios of Chinese insurers generally appear prudent, in our view, and are made under strict regulations. But the insurers have significant concentration risk in investments associated with the banking sector, including deposits, bonds, and equity investments. In recent years, regulators have allowed Chinese insurers to pursue more investment avenues, including real estate, derivatives, and overseas securities. This added flexibility should improve the diversity of portfolios in the long run, but the risks from those new investable assets may be higher. Bank deposits comprise over 30% of the total invested assets of Chinese insurers, a higher rate than that of regional and global peers. Chinese insurers can negotiate for better deposits rates, with an industry one-year benchmark deposit rate of about 3.25%. Such a rate has made time deposits attractive and safe for insurers, given their substantial volume and currently limited pool of allowed investment avenues. We consider the credit risk profiles of bank deposits to be strong, given that most deposits are at highly systemic banks with reasonable liquidity. More than 20% of the insurers' assets are in bonds and the equity instruments that banks issue. In total, the insurers' exposure to banks is more than half of their invested assets and is over 5x total shareholders' equity. Therefore, if the Chinese economy slows down further and erodes the performance of banks, insurers could feel the pain--both in terms of their investment performance and a possible impact on premium income. Some mid-and-small-sized insurers have low exposure to investments in the financial services sector. They allocate a

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

higher proportion of their funds to the industrial sectors through investments in corporate bonds and common stock. In such cases, concentration risks should be lower than those with significant investment exposure to banks. But their credit risks may increase. We believe the concentration risk is high for insurers with extremely high deposits and investments in banks, and could expose these companies to systemic risk in the event of a crisis. However, this is likely to be a remote scenario over the next two years.
Table 4

Investment Statistics Of The China Insurance Sector

(%) Investment assets (bil. RMB) Investment returns (bil. RMB) Investment returns Investment portfolio Bank deposits Bonds Stocks Investment funds Others Total 26.5 57.9 7.9 5.4 2.3 100.0 28.1 51.0 11.2 7.4 2.3 100.0 30.2 49.9 11.1 5.7 3.1 100.0 32.0 47.1 6.9 5.3 8.7 100.0 34.2 44.6 6.5 5.3 9.4 100.0 2008 3,357.2 53.0 1.9 2009 4,100.0 214.2 6.4 2010 5,046.7 201.5 4.8 2011 5,994.6 182.6 3.6 2012 6,850.0 208.5 3.4

Source: Annual reports of China's insurance market.

Evolving Regulations Will Be Largely Beneficial In The Long Run

We believe enhanced regulatory initiatives will be positive for the market over the next three to five years onwards. The announced new solvency regime has reflected the intention of the Chinese regulator to tighten solvency and risk-management requirements in line with global developments. In our view, the changes will have a significant and positive impact on the industry's development by ensuring a more sophisticated industry with sustainable growth prospects. However, we don't expect the regulatory developments alone to have an immediate effect on insurers' credit profiles, given that other constraints persist, such as capitalization, asset-liabilities mismatches, and emerging risks during business expansion. While the details of the new solvency regime are still not fixed, the high level framework includes three pillars of supervision based on: quantitative measures of insurers' capital requirements; qualitative requirements to constrain operational, strategic, reputational, and liquidity risks; and market oversight from a variety of participants in the markets. The new solvency framework is aligned with the International Association of Insurance Supervisors' Insurance Core Principal. There's still a long way to achieve an international standard while the industry is relatively less sophisticated. Nevertheless, we note the fast pace of improvement in recent years. In our view, the new regulatory regime will equip

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

the industry to be more resilient over the long run as the industry continues to expand and faces increasing complexity of risks. As risk management is still developing in the sector, risk controls are still not fully tested through a cycle. The regulator's initiative to encourage risk management through guidance and requirements has improved insurers' awareness of risk management. We believe most insurers have good grasp of setting risk limits for underwriting, assets, and liabilities. However, most management teams still do not clearly articulate the companies' overall risk appetite with reference to their risk limits. Clear articulation of risk tolerance is an important element for a more sophisticated risk management control. Risk controls at most insurers in China are still relatively traditional, with silo-based risk controls across departments. Insurers' risk management is focused on being compliant with required regulations. In the meantime, the relaxing of controls over investments and premium pricing for certain classes should increase the flexibility for insurers to seek higher investment yields and profit margins from investment and products. That would help the industry enhance their profits, but potentially at a higher risk profile. Increasing risk management requirements could mitigate that issue. The regulatory changes are likely to push less-capitalized, smaller, and fast-growing insurers to beef up their capital. And this could result in consolidation over time.

Appendix
Table 5

Key Assumptions For Our Assessment Of The Capital Needs Of Chinese Insurers
Investment risk factors Cash and bank deposits Government bonds Financial bonds Corporate bonds Common stocks Funds Other equity-related investments Policy loans Infrastructure bonds Property investments Long term equity Shares in related companies Others Other chargeable assets Charges (%) 0.05 0.90 1.22 4.20 55.00 34.00 55.00 0.00 16.97 18.00 55.00 100.00 5.00 5.00 Assume non-group related Infrastructure bonds at 'BB' category with maturity of 5-10 years Assumptions for charges at 'BBB' adequacy level Bank ratings at 'A-' or above Government bonds at average 'AA' category with maturity of 5-10 years Financial bonds at average 'A' category with maturity of 5-10 years Financial bonds at average 'BBB' category with maturity of 5-10 years The risk charge for the China market Same charge as hedge funds Same as equity charges

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Sector Review: Chinese Insurers Seek Shelter In Slower But More Sustainable Growth Models

Table 5

Key Assumptions For Our Assessment Of The Capital Needs Of Chinese Insurers (cont.)
Property & casualty - underwriting and reserving risks Premiums Liabilities 15.00 15.00 Assume mostly in motor insurance, hence average of portfolio Assume mostly in motor insurance, hence average of portfolio

Life insurance - key liabilities and PVIF assumptions ALM Net sum at risks (use premiums as proxy) Liabilities PVIF assumption (use life liabilities as proxy - 8% of life liabilities. Then apply 50% haircut) 10.54 0.19 2.00 50.00 Assume 7 years' mismatch Use premiums as proxy, charges mainly rlate to the mortality risks for medium developed life market Participating product charge

ALM--Asset liabilities mismatch. PVIF--Present value in force.

Table 6

Growth Assumptions For Chinese Insurers (2013-2014f)

(%) Premium growth Investment returns f--Forecast. P&C--Property and casualty. P&C 20.0 4.5 Life 5.0 4.5

Related Criteria And Research

Related criteria
Insurers: Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Refined Methodology And Assumptions For Analyzing Insurer Capital Adequacy Using The Risk-Based Insurance Capital Model, June 7, 2010

Related research
China's Reform Initiatives Could Improve The Credit Profiles Of Insurance Companies, Says S&P, Nov. 28, 2013 Asia-Pacific Insurers' ERM Continues To Improve, But Still Lags Behind The More Developed Markets, Sept. 19, 2013 Asia-Pacific Insurers Are On Firm Footing As Economic Conditions Shift, Sept. 3, 2013 Recent Pricing Reforms Will Have A Limited Impact On China's Life Insurance Industry, Aug. 8, 2013 Insurance Industry Risks Vary Widely Across The Asia-Pacific Region, July 18, 2013

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