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ACIIC Analysts
Introducing ACIIC
Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs Formally organized as a non-profit charity organization 6 member Universities across Canada today
Goal of expanding from coast to coast
ACIIC Vision
Investment education
Rigorous, structured
ACIIC Conference
Action Items Meet the Team Understanding Industry Themes Understanding Industry Drivers Identifying Potential Stock Investments
Nov-24
Dec-1
Week of Dec-8
Dec-15
Industry Analysis
Deliverables
4-5 PowerPoint slides Identify the key drivers and themes Identify several stocks that are potential investments Choose a stock
Action Items
Dec-29
Jan-19
Investment Thesis Company Overview, Segment Analysis, Mangement Analysis, Shareholder Analysis Competitive Analysis vs. Peers Comparable Analysis Company Analysis
Deliverables
5-8 PowerPoint slides Business model, how does it make money Identify and analyze the segments of the company Assess quality of management Shareholder analysis Assess competitive landscape (Porter 5 Forces, SWOT) Calculate ratios, DuPont analysis, comparable valuation
Action Items Operating Assumptions: Understanding Key Drivers DCF Other Valuation: Precedent, Sum of the Parts, LBO, Liquidation Value, NAV
Feb-9
Valuation
Deliverables
4-5 PowerPoint slides Operating assumptions should reflect company and industry analysis Perform DCF valuation Have at least one other valuation methodology that is relevant to the company
Week of Feb-16
Deliverables
2-3 PowerPoint slides Risks to the downside (great if you can quantify) Potential mitigants Catalyst in the short term horizon (soft and hard)
TOPIC 1 TOPIC 2
Strategy
TOPIC 3 TOPIC 4 PROGRAM TOPIC 6
Deliverables
4-5 PowerPoint slides Operational or financial strategy that the company can employ to enhance valuation Example, if you forecasted margin expansion or to increase cross selling, how is that achieved Potential acquisition and other transformative transactions
Action Items
TOPIC 1 TOPIC 2 TOPIC 3 TOPIC 4 PROGRAM TOPIC 6
Presentation Presentation
Deliverables
~20 PowerPoint slides Compile your presentation and summarize the salient points Practice it together Polished
Resources
We are here to help Chapter Head Industry Mentors Each Other
Mentorship
Mentorship database Recruitment or questions in general
Sector Allocation
FIG Matthew Parrott TMT Mario Campea CRG Colton Dick Industrials Artie Novik HC Geoff Clark NR Dave Marrello
Matthew Parrott
Eric Luo Alex Hong Andre Luk Alex Payne Andrew Gibbs Krishna Aggarwal Sebastian Grutter
FIG
By: Matt Parrott
November 24, 2013
What is FIG?
Recent Themes
Increased regulation
Implementation of Basel III
Key Drivers
Economic growth
The financials sector is often considered a levered play on the economy
Interest rates and inflation Consumer and business confidence Fund flows
Investing
Most widely used metric is P/B Regression between P/B and ROE Asset/dividend based models as opposed to cash flow models
Macro
Expectations that interest rates will rise and equity markets will rally
Micro
Insurance company X has the lowest combined ratio relative to its peers
Valuation
Currently trading at a discount on a P/B basis
Questions
FIG
By: Matt Parrott
November 24, 2013
Mario Campea
Matt Ting Jin Hwang Emerson Dieudonne Julie Vincent David Greenman Sean Saggi Emily Ren
Software
Generally refers to computer programs and applications that dictate specific functions
Hardware
Physical elements that a computing system is made of Many companies sell both Hardware and Software components (ex. IBM)
Internet
Companies that have majority focus on selling products and services using Internet as main delivery platform Includes social media, advertising, search engines, user review, e-Commerce, etc.
Cloud Computing
Refers to companies that deliver hosted services over the Internet Software as a Services (SaaS): Vendors deliver applications to customers Platform as a Service (PaaS): Customers can rent hardware, storage, etc. from vendors
Advertising
Usually an in-house function of corporate finance Investment opportunities emerging in the mobile space
Broadcasting
EX. THESIS
Incredibly saturated industry, with large players being the only ones scalable enough to compete Usually a portion of a larger conglomerate (e.g. Rogers Communications, Time Warner Cable) Very little pure-play broadcasting companies due to high overhead required to compete Many private companies (e.g. CNBC, Fox News)
Satellites
Provide satellite communication services Ex. Sirius, Dish Network
Key Drivers
EX. THESIS
Retention rate
High retention rates indicate more stable revenues and cash flows Can indicate quality of product and distinguish fads
More time means more potential exposure to advertisements and products What percentage of users actually contribute to revenues
Time on site
Example Thesis
Nokia
TECHNOLOGY MEDIA TELECOM KEY DRIVERS KEY METRICS EX. THESIS
I apologize for being unable to attend. Please feel free to reach out and we can arrange a chat. Mario Campea (mccampea@gmail.com)
Colton Dick
Vinayak Modi Will Zed Daniel Viner Steven Lo Erik Chu Fred Jackson Asem Mosmer
Industry Introduction
Consumer Staples:
INTRO THEMES DRIVERS OPPORTUNITY TJX
Non-cyclical companies that sell food, beverage, tobacco, and other household items
Consumer Discretionary
Cyclical companies that sell durable and non-durable products/services; considered non-necessities
Recovery Gains
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% (1.0%) (2.0%)
5.2%
2.0%
Lowest Fifth
Second Fifth
Third Fifth
Fourth Fifth
Highest Fifth
Top 5 %
Negative real income gains heightens the number of value conscious consumers
Increasing Valuations
1.3
1.2
1.15
21% 17%
11%
OPPORTUNITY
1.05
TJX
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
S5COND Index
S5CONS Index
SPX Index
Discretionary has seen margin expansion relative to the S&P500, whereas Staples has seen a relative margin contraction
Macro Drivers
Unemployment Rate Outstanding Household Debt Real Disposable Income Emerging Market & European Recovery Same Store Sales Growth Food Inflation Margin Expansion Pricing Power
Micro Drivers
Industry Opportunities
Compete with department store experience Potential significant growth Consumer analytics insight Store growth in USA, SSS driven by housing recovery Store growth in new/existing countries Convergence to US margins Barrier to entry Foundation for successful international expansion Continued margin expansion
HomeGoods
Europe
LTM ROIC
TJXs dominance as a leader in off-price retail is reflected by a high return on invested capital and as such, commands a premium to its peers
Questions
Industrials
Artie Novik
Ryan Haydon Jonathan Kim John Lu Chris Pepper Dean Brown Hyla Nayeri
Industrials
By: Artie Novikov
November 24, 2013
Sector Overview
Capital Goods
Aerospace & Defense Building Products Construction & Engineering Electrical Equipment Industrial Conglomerates Machinery
Services
Commercial Services & Supplies Professional Services
Transportation
Air Freight & Logistics Airlines Marine Road & Rail Transportation Infrastructure
Market Cap
P/E
$7.77T
20.4 x
INTRODUCTION THEMES KEY DRIVERS KEY RISKS SPECIFICS THESIS RETURNS QUESTIONS
Services an increasingly important source of revenues Industrials scaling back on operational leverage Focus on cost reductions and divestiture of non-core operations
Key Drivers
INTRODUCTION THEMES KEY DRIVERS KEY RISKS SPECIFICS THESIS RETURNS QUESTIONS
Performance largely driven by demand for building construction, manufactured products, and capital goods
GDP growth provides good indicator of future demand Growth in government spending Large infrastructure projects
Key Risks
INTRODUCTION THEMES KEY DRIVERS KEY RISKS SPECIFICS THESIS RETURNS QUESTIONS
Large companies putting off investments due to uncertain economic conditions Increasing interest rates
Sector Specifics
INTRODUCTION THEMES KEY DRIVERS KEY RISKS SPECIFICS THESIS RETURNS QUESTIONS
PMI is a good leading indicator of industrial production Generation of Free Cash Flow is key Airlines:
EV/Plane EV/Passenger
Infrastructure:
EV/NAV P/B
Thesis Example
Micro
High return on capital
Barriers to entry High margins relative to industry
THESIS
RETURNS QUESTIONS
Good management
Thesis Example
Macro
Important to understand what is happening at the subsector, sector, and national levels GDP reports & forecasts: U.S., China, Germany
THESIS
Setup
What is the current state of your pitch? 52-week highs/lows Short-interest
RETURNS QUESTIONS
Sector Performance
INTRODUCTION THEMES KEY DRIVERS KEY RISKS SPECIFICS TOPIC 7 RETURNS QUESTIONS
Questions
Industrials
By: Artie Novikov
March 9, 2013
NR (Natural Resources)
David Marrello
Karishma Balani Bill Cong Akshay Gujral Darren Viegas Egor Gaggin Jenny Kletnich
Natural Resources
By: David Marrello
November 24, 2013
Sector Intro
Metals and Mining
SEC. INTROS SEC. THEMES KEY DRIVERS INVESTING SAMPLE THES.
Was once Canadas most important sector Major underperformer for 2013 (-24% for the year) Key Canadian companies in the sector include Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, and Potash Corp. Success of the industry highly dependent on the prices of underlying precious metals Companies have different specialties: as producers or as explorers
Sector Intro
Energy
Includes: Petroleum, Gas, Electrical Power, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Currently Canadas second most important sector Also an underperformer for 2013 (8% for the year Key Canadian companies in the sector include Suncor, CNR, Encana, Talisman, & Imperial Oil Success of the industry highly dependent on the prices of underlying commodities
Sector Themes
Mining and Metals
SEC. INTROS SEC. THEMES
Shift in mining focus towards developing nations The profound impact of new technology (ex. Arctic mining) The increased importance of small to medium sized miners
Energy
Increased prominence of renewable technologies and decreased reliance on nuclear A shift in demand from developed nations to developing nations New technologies (deepwater drilling now only 9% but increasing) The profound impact of new technology (ex Deepwater drilling) US energy independence
Key Drivers
Metals and Mining
SEC. INTROS SEC. THEMES KEY DRIVERS INVESTING SAMPLE THES.
Prices of Underlying Precious Metals (gold, silver, diamonds) Production efficiencies of miners Regulation (threat of nationalization) Ability to raise debt/equity, and cash flow Macroeconomic considerations
Energy
Underlying commodity prices Government subsidies and regulations Global demand and supply outlook Mergers and Acquisitions
Investing Specifics
Key Industry Metrics Metals and Mining
SEC. INTROS SEC. THEMES KEY DRIVERS INVESTING SAMPLE THES.
Production/Capacity/Reserves (typically measured in weight) Cash flow from operations EBITDAX Net Asset Value Model Typified by long lasting, but punctuated cycles
Energy
Production/Capacity/Reserves (typically measured in barrels or other volume measure) EBITDAX Net Asset Value Model Dividend yield may be a consideration
2.
SAMPLE THES.
3.
4.
Larger multi-mineral mining companies are leaving the industry to pursue the opportunities that come with increased demand for other commodities such as steel, iron, copper etc; giving companies such as Dominion Diamond Corporation the opportunity to step in and increase their market share in the diamond industry substantially. The rough-diamond market is expected to remain balanced from 2013 through 2017. From 2018 onward, as existing mines get depleted and no major new deposits come online, supply is expected to decline, falling behind expected demand growth that will be driven by China, India and the US. Proved and Probable Recoverable and Attributable Reserves showing signs of growth, especially from 2012 to 2013:expected to grow from 30840 T to 37080 T Current Ekati mine plan calls for further seven years of production until 2019, however Dominion Diamond Corp has discovered additional resources on Ekati property.
Thesis Continued
The Company is the fourth largest diamond producer by value globally Largest publicly listed diamond mining pure play by market capitalization Both mines located in the low political risk environment
In Q3, a 62% increase in carats sold was offset by a 9% decrease in achieved diamond prices Rough prices had picked up by about 6% in the first months of the year
Since then, prices have been flat
Production at the Misery pit, where stripping is under way, is slated to begin in 2016. One-time expenses due to purchase of Ekati resulted in the US$16.3-million net loss
Excluding such one-time items, the company would have seen $11.1 million, or 13 a share, in profit
Questions
Natural Resources
By: David Marrello
Healthcare
Geoff Clark
Tianhao Fang Wahaaj Ud Din Tanveer Randhawa Rahul Sharma Dmitry Kutsyy
Healthcare
By: Geoffrey Clark
November 24, 2013
Sector Introduction
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Recent Themes
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Recent Themes
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Environmental factors
Air and water pollution are increasing the prevalence of conditions like asthma
Rise of problems like obesity, diabetes and allergies Increased prevalence and awareness of mental disabilities
Key Drivers
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Government budgets
For most states, Medicaid is the number one cost Healthcare spending growing faster than other categories
Key Drivers
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Management Innovation
Company must be able to offer innovative solutions to meaningfully impact diseases
Either be first in the area or be the best
Sector Specifics
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Sector Specifics
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Facilities
Focus on operating costs and sustained cost advantages Large and well-funded systems vs. local hospitals
Significant M&A activity between the two
Sector Specifics
INTRODUCTION RECENT THEMES KEY DRIVERS SECTOR SPECIFICS SAMPLE INVESTMENT THESIS
Questions