CHALMERS

Vlkomna!
till workshop ROBUST KONSTRUKTIONSMETODIK FR KAD TILLFRLITLIGHET Tillfrlitlighet och variation

O uality Sciences

Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Tillfrlitlighet, variation och robusthet

Bo Bergman SKF Professor Quality Sciences Division of Quality Sciences Chalmers University of Technology SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden Phone: +46 31 772 8180 E-mail: bo.bergman@mot.chalmers.se

O uality Sciences

Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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The Kano Model

Customer Satisfaction Attractive Expected

Degree of fulfilment Must be

O uality Sciences

Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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History (industry)
Specialisation Assembly Integration Process Learning Variation Organization Continuous Improvement Quality Driven Japanisation organisation developemnt

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

Japanese . . . . . Export Many Dialects Quality Driven ..Six P organization Sigma development Lean D 4

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Demings Profound Knowledge +

Understanding Variation
Not only handling and reduction

Psychology
Not only individual but also organisation and social

Knowledge Theory
How knowledge determines what we can observe and

interpret, and how new knowledge is created

Systems Thinking
The Complexity Growth Ouality

Sciences

Bo Bergman SKF Professor

CHALMERS Facts about

the world:

The World is full of Variation

Big Bang (from variation, a quantum fluctuation, and in
variation)

Physical Reality (Thermodynamics, Statistical

mechanics, Quantum Mechanics)

Biological Reality (Evolution: Replication and

Increased and reduced variation)

Humans and Human Artefacts (We find

variation everywhere!)

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Reliability and Safety must be quality

Customer Satisfaction Attractive Expected

Degree of fulfilment Must be

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Why do we have failures?

Due to variation!

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Reliability in a World Full of Variation Variation: For good and for bad
Without Variation No World! Life is Variation! Variation Creates Problems: - Deviations - Disturbances - Noise

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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The Bathtub Curve

z(t)

early failure period best period

constant failure rate

wear-out period

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Un-reliability due to Variation

z(t)

early failure period

Usage best period variation constant failure rate

wear-out period
Inner variation Deterioration t

Manufacturing variation

Production Processes Under Statistical Control?

Usage Environment Under Statistical Control?

Usually NOT!!!
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A Critique of Reliability Theory Assumptions

Probability models under the assumption: Processes under statistical control?
Probably not!!!

Lagging indictors of reliability performance

The design is created before testing Usage feedback is even much later

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Back to Basics

Work with the failure mechanisms and their relations to Variation!

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Six Sigma:

Variation
Reductio
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Chance vs Assignable causes of variation

Time Time Time

a process with a stable process assignable causes

a stable more capable process

Processes Out of statistical In Statistical Control O uality Sciences Control

Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Engineering controls tolerances

Process Capability

Manufacturing controls process capabilities

defects Lower tolerance limit Upper tolerance limit

Quality Deficiency Costs Expensive components

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

16 Relation to Six Sigma

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DFSS and Six Sigma

y = f ( x1 , x 2 , ..., , x n )
2

DfSS

y 2 y = + x x 1 x 1 2
2 y

2 x2 + ...

Six Sigma

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Variation/Robust Design
a b

Quality Loss L(y)

Quality Loss L(y)

y LTL Target Value UTL

LTL

Target Value

UTL

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P-diagram

Noise factors

y= f ( x) Product
Signal factors Process System Control factors
Bo Bergman SKF Professor

Ideally but Response

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Targeted Effects of Variation Reduction

The effects of variation focused in Design for Six Sigma programs;

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based on 25 responses.
Bo Bergman SKF Professor

Ida G?

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Robust Design Methodology Sources of Variation

PRODUCT or PROCESS
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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

Results

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Failure Experiences and Remedies

The Growth of Reliability Engineering
Early Problems
Elevators in mines; Rail Road Accidents; Fatigue Problems; Rocket Problems (fortunately); Electronics Problems (esp. in the US Navy); etc.

Aircraft Safety and Availability

Improvements based on a serious feedback process

Life Cycle Cost based Acquisitions

Defence Industry, Process Industry

Competitiveness
Automobile Industry AC equipment producers (Garvin, 1988)

Today, most industries have been forced to realise the problem Warranty costs often as high as 50% of the O uality 22 Sciences Development costs Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Aim of Reliability efforts

Find
Estimate Reduce Eliminate

Causes
Experience Feed-back

Find
Estimate Reduce Eliminate

Fault
Consequences
Bo Bergman SKF Professor

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Stress & Strength

Demand and Capacity
Probability density Stress Strength

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Strength/Stress 24

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Failure Mode Avoidance

Lusser (in the 1950-ties)
Robert Lusser
The V1 rocket Lussers Law Starfighter F104 (widowmaker) Missile development criteria

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Reliability, Stress, and Strength

Lusser, 1955

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Failure Mode Avoidance

Lusser (in the 1950-ties)
Robert Lusser

FMEA
Failure Mode and Effects analysis Physics of Failure

Clausing (Xerox/MIT)
Operating Window

Pat OConnor Taguchi Davis (Ford)

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Failure Mode Avoidance in Robust Design Methodology

Response Ideal Function

Signal

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Failure Mode Avoidance

Response Ideal Function

S/N ratio An Engineering Measure of Reliability? Signal

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Failure Mode Avoidance

Lusser (in the 1950-ties)
Robert Lusser

FMEA
Failure Mode and Effects analysis Physics of Failure

Clausing (Xerox/MIT)
Operating Window

Pat OConnor Taguchi Davis (Ford) Frame: DfSS e.g Park, Creveling et al. . Ouality

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P-diagram

Noise factors

Signal factors

Product Process System Control factors

Bo Bergman SKF Professor

Ideally but Response

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Product representation as a System of P-Diagrams

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Robust Design
System design

Decide on the products characteristics so that the requirements are fulfilled and it can be produced easily. Creative Robustness should be looked for!
Parameter Design

Find a set-up of the construction parameters that make the product independent of disturbances.
Tolerance Design

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Decide on tolerances, but strive for the target value

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Creative solutions: some illustrations

The self aligning bearing A Creative Reliability Improvement 1995

1907 Sven Wingquist Ouality

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Inspiration
Creative yesterday commonplace today
Replacing the chain with a wire

DFA - solutions

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Poka-Yoke Principles
1. Make it easier for the person to do the right thing than the wrong thing 2. Make mistakes obvious to the person immediately so that some correction can be made on the spot 3. Allow the person to take corrective action or stop before any irreversible step occurs

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How to create a robust design?

y
y

y0

x0

x1

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X1 results in less variation in y

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Transfer function

y = f (C , N , C * N ) ? ? ?
1. Is the transfer function known to the experimenter? 2. Is it possible to use Design of Experiments to estimate the transfer function ? 3. Is the transfer function possible to estimate by use of simulation?

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Pump design transfer function known

One way valve Tubing

Flow rate (F) (l/min) Transfer function: F = (3.141 x R2 x L - B) N R = Piston radius (dm) L = Stroke length (dm) B = Back flow (l) N = Motor speed (rpm)
Piston

Customer requirement: F=100.75l/min

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Pump design
Factors
MAKE

Nominal value 0.2-0.8 dm 0.2-0.8 dm 0.001-0.004 l

Standard Deviation 0.001 0.002 0.00005 0.00002

Radius Stroke length Back flow

BUY

(Inlet Valve)

N (rpm)
(Electrical motor)

50-100rpm

2
Low cost

1
High cost

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The tolerance design approach

First Design Piston Radius R =0.4 dm Stroke length L=0.4 dm Back flow B=0,002 l (low cost) Motor speed N=50rpm (low cost) The target is 10 l/min, but 3 sigma process

Tightening the specifications of the motor (the high cost type) gives better performance 5 sigma process

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A robust design approach

The effect of the factors on the mean and the variance of the flow Variance (flow)
0.2

0.8

0.2

0.8

0.001

0.004

Mean (flow)

0.001

0.004

0.2

0.8

0.2

0.8

N
42

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Bo Bergman SKF Professor

100

50

100

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A robust design approach

Set R and L as low as possible, i.e. R=L=0,2dm Use low cost back flow (B) Bring the flow rate to target (F=10 l/min) by adjusting N As N100, keep R low and increase L until F=10 l/min The resulting performance is: Almost a 5 sigma process!

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Composite material experiment: transfer function unknown Manufacturing process of composite material y bending strenght A curing temperature B pressure C holding time D proportion of hardener E thermo-plastic content F proportion of epoxy G material ageing H process type response variable control factors (process variables)

y = f (A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H)

noise factors

Four different process conditions Eight batches of raw material

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Experimental design
Product
-1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1

D E F G H

Process variables (control factors)

A Curing temperature B Pressure C Holding time

Incoming material (noise factors)

D E F G H Proportion of hardener Thermo-plastic content Proportion of epoxy Material aging Type of process

A B C
-1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1

Process
1 -1 -1 1

-1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1

-1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1

2075 2117 2221 2227 2201 2179 1988 1858 1829 1978 2111 2205 2127 2106 1870 1879 2245 2242 2245 2258 2206 2207 2053 2188 2219 2145 2174 2265 2241 2187 2208 2181

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Identification of location effects

3

Standard deviation

Standard deviation

0 -1 0 0 -5 0 0 50 100 150

0 -1 0 0 -5 0 0 50 100 150

Standard deviation

BG
0 50 100 150

0 -1 0 0 -5 0 1

-1 5 0

-1 5 0

-1 5 0

-1

-1

-2

-2 2

-3 -3 3

Contrasts

Contrasts

Contrasts

Process factors

Factors and interactions associated with incoming material

Interactions between process factors and incoming material factors

Location effects B, G and BG was determined to be active based on engineering knowledge and the normal plots

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Model

( B, G ) = 2132 + 72 B 65G + 46 BG = y 2132 + 72 B + ( 46 B 65 ) G

B 1.4

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Conclusions
The storage time of the incoming material (G) is causing variation in the bending strength of the composite material. If the pressure (B) is set at high level the bending strength is made insensitive to the storage time.

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Robust Testing
N1 N2
.

Nn

The Design

Variation of Noise factors

Evaluate the Design

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Design reviews

Robust good design DRBFM* good discussion good dissection Design Review
*Design Review Based on Failure Mode

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