North Carolina Department of Commerce - Labor and Economic Analysis Division

News

Release
For Immediate Release December 20, 2013

For More Information, Contact: Larry Parker/919.707.1010

North Carolinas November Employment Figures Released

RALEIGH The states seasonally adjusted November unemployment rate was 7.4 percent, decreasing 0.6 of a percentage point from Octobers revised rate of 8.0 percent. The national rate decreased to 7.0 percent from Octobers 7.3 percent. North Carolinas November 2013 unemployment rate was 2.0 percentage points lower than a year ago. The number of people employed increased 20,037 over the month to 4,314,502, and increased 6,082 over the year. The number of people unemployed decreased 28,138 over the month to 343,611, and declined 101,091 over the year. Seasonally adjusted Total Nonfarm industry employment, as gathered through the monthly establishment survey, decreased 6,500 to 4,084,100 in November. The major industry with the largest over-the-month increase was Trade, Transportation & Utilities at 2,600, followed by Professional & Business Services, 2,000; Construction, 1,600; and Leisure & Hospitality Services, 300. Major industries to experience decreases were Education & Health Services, 4,100; Manufacturing, 3,300; Financial Activities, 2,500; Government, 1,500; Other Services, 1,000; and Information, 600. Mining & Logging employment remained flat over the month.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Since November 2012
Nov. 2012 Dec. 2012 Jan. 2013 Feb. 2013 Mar. 2013 Apr. 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 Aug. 2013 Sept. 2013 Oct. 2013 Nov. 2013

N.C. U.S.

9.4 7.8

9.4 7.8

9.5 7.9

9.4 7.7

9.2 7.6

8.9 7.5

8.8 7.6

8.8 7.6

8.9 7.4

8.7 7.3

8.3 7.2

8.0 7.3

7.4 7.0

**2012 Numbers Have Been Annually Revised**

Since November 2012, Total Nonfarm jobs gained 56,800 with the Total Private sector growing by 59,700 and Government declining by 2,900. The largest over-the-year increase of major industries was in Professional & Business Services at 25,700, followed by Trade, Transportation & Utilities, 15,400; Education & Health Services, 9,800; Leisure & Hospitality Services, 7,700; Information, 5,200; and Manufacturing, 200. Major industries to experience decreases over the year were Government, 2,900; Construction, 2,500; Financial Activities, 900; Other Services, 800; and Mining & Logging, 100. The next unemployment update is scheduled for Tuesday, January 7, 2014 when the county unemployment rates for November 2013 will be released. More
This information may be accessed on the DES World Wide Web page, at http://www.ncesc.com

North Carolina data is embargoed until 10:00 A.M., Friday December 20, 2013 Numeric Change Month Ago Percent Change Numeric Change Year Ago Percent Change

November 2013

October 2013

November 2012

North Carolina (Local Area Unemployment Statistics) Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Employed Unemployed Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Employed Unemployed Unemployment Rate United States (Current Population Survey) Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Employed Unemployed Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Employed Unemployed Unemployment Rate
155,046,000 144,775,000 10,271,000 6.6 154,918,000 144,144,000 10,773,000 7.0 154,953,000 143,549,000 11,404,000 7.4 128,000 631,000 -502,000 -0.4 0.1 0.4 -4.7 xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx 155,294,000 144,386,000 10,907,000 7.0 154,839,000 143,568,000 11,272,000 7.3 155,319,000 143,277,000 12,042,000 7.8 455,000 818,000 -365,000 -0.3 0.3 0.6 -3.2 xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx 4,670,088 4,347,769 322,319 6.9 4,680,986 4,329,359 351,627 7.5 4,758,342 4,325,744 432,598 9.1 -10,898 18,410 -29,308 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 -8.3 xxx -88,254 22,025 -110,279 -2.2 -1.9 0.5 -25.5 xxx 4,658,113 4,314,502 343,611 7.4 4,666,214 4,294,465 371,749 8.0 4,753,122 4,308,420 444,702 9.4 -8,101 20,037 -28,138 -0.6 -0.2 0.5 -7.6 xxx -95,009 6,082 -101,091 -2.0 -2.0 0.1 -22.7 xxx

*Effective January 2013, updated US population estimates are used in the national labor force estimates, The annual population adjustments affect the comparability of national labor force estimates over time. 2013 estimates for the current month are preliminary. Estimates for the previous month have undergone monthly revision. 2012 estimates have undergone annual revision.

North Carolina data is embargoed until 10:00 A.M., Friday December 20, 2013 Month Ago
November 2013 October 2013 November 2012 Numeric Change Percent Change

Year Ago
Numeric Change Percent Change

North Carolina (Current Employment Statistics)

Seasonally Adjusted
Total Nonfarm Total Private Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government 4,084,100 3,370,300 5,400 166,900 443,000 770,400 74,300 204,700 564,600 564,500 434,100 142,400 713,800 4,090,600 3,375,300 5,400 165,300 446,300 767,800 74,900 207,200 562,600 568,600 433,800 143,400 715,300 4,027,300 3,310,600 5,500 169,400 442,800 755,000 69,100 205,600 538,900 554,700 426,400 143,200 716,700 -6,500 -5,000 0.0 1,600 -3,300 2,600 -600 -2,500 2,000 -4,100 300 -1,000 -1,500 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 1.0 -0.7 0.3 -0.8 -1.2 0.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.2 56,800 59,700 -100 -2,500 200 15,400 5,200 -900 25,700 9,800 7,700 -800 -2,900 1.4 1.8 -1.8 -1.5 <0.1 2.0 7.5 -0.4 4.8 1.8 1.8 -0.6 -0.4

North Carolina (Current Employment Statistics)

Not Seasonally Adjusted
Total Nonfarm Total Private Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government 4,121,500 3,387,200 5,400 170,300 444,900 781,900 74,600 204,300 565,600 569,100 428,800 142,300 734,300 4,118,500 3,387,000 5,400 169,500 446,300 766,900 74,800 207,200 568,800 569,500 435,100 143,500 731,500 4,063,500 3,326,300 5,500 172,700 444,600 766,300 69,400 205,300 539,900 559,100 420,500 143,000 737,200 3,000 200 0.0 800 -1,400 15,000 -200 -2,900 -3,200 -400 -6,300 -1,200 2,800 0.1 <0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.3 2.0 -0.3 -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.4 58,000 60,900 -100 -2,400 300 15,600 5,200 -1,000 25,700 10,000 8,300 -700 -2,900 1.4 1.8 -1.8 -1.4 0.1 2.0 7.5 -0.5 4.8 1.8 2.0 -0.5 -0.4

Mfg. Production Workers (PW) Not Seasonally Adjusted

Mfg. PW Average Hourly Earnings Mfg. PW Hours Worked
All 2013 Labor Force and CES data for the current month are preliminary. All 2012 Labor Force and CES estimates have been benchmarked. Estimates may not add to totals due to rounding.

$16.74 42.4

$16.67 41.5

$16.61 41.2

North Carolina Labor Market Conditions

United States/North Carolina Unemployment Rates November 2012-November 2013
(Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted**)

November 2013

10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0

Percent
7.8 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.2 7.5 8.9 7.6 8.8 7.6 8.8 7.4 8.9 7.3 8.7 7.2

The North Carolina smoothed seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.4 percent in November, decreasing 0.6 of a percentage point from the previous month, and falling 2.0 percentage points from November 2012. Over the month, the number of persons unemployed fell by 28,138 (7.6%). The civilian labor force declined by 8,101 (0.2%) to 4,658,113.
8.3 7.3 8.0 7.0 7.4

6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Nationally, Novembers unemployment rate was 7.0 percent. The number of persons unemployed was 10,907,000, while the civilian labor force was 155,294,000. Seasonally adjusted Total Nonfarm industry employment (4,084,100) has decreased 6,500 (0.2%) since October 2013, and increased 56,800 (1.4%) since November 2012. Private sector employment declined over the month by 5,000 (0.1%) and grew by 59,700 (1.8%) over the year.

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013
United States North Carolina

**US data are not smoothed.

North Carolina Total Nonfarm Employment November 2012-November 2013

(Seasonally Adjusted)

4,100 4,080 4,060

It is important to note that industry employment estimates are subject to large seasonal patterns. Seasonal adjustment factors are applied to the data. However, these factors may not be fully capturing the seasonal trend. Therefore, when interpreting the changes in industry employment, it is advisable to focus on over-the-year changes in both the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted series. Of the major industries for which payroll data are seasonally adjusted, Trade, Transportation & Utilities had the largest over-the-month gain in jobs (2,600; 0.3%), followed by Professional & Business Services (2,000; 0.4%), Construction (1,600; 1.0%) and Leisure & Hospitality (300; 0.1%). Education & Health Services (4,100; 0.7%) had the largest over-the-month decrease, followed by Manufacturing (3,300; 0.7%), Financial Activities (2,500; 1.2%), Government (1,500; 0.2%), Other Services (1,000; 0.7%) and Information (600; 0.8%). Mining & Logging reported no change over the month.

In Thousands

4,040 4,020 4,000 3,980 3,960

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013

Changes in Employment by NAICS Industries November 2012 Compared to November 2013

(Seasonally Adjusted)

Since November 2012, Professional & Business Services added the largest number of jobs (25,700; 4.8%), followed by Trade, Transportation & Utilities (15,400; 2.0%) and Education & Health Services (9,800; 1.8%).

900 800 700

+15.4

-2.9 +25.7 +9.8 +7.7

In Thousands

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Construcon Manufacturing Trade, Transportaon & Ulies

+0.2

-2.5 +5.2
Informaon

-0.9

-0.8

Financial Acvies
November 2012

Professional & Business Services

November 2013

Educaon & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality Services

Other Services

Government

*NC current month data are preliminary. Other 2013 data are revised, while 2012 data have undergone annual process-

Labor & Economic Analysis Division | North Carolina Department of Commerce | 1 of 2

North Carolina Labor Market Conditions

The November 2013 not seasonally adjusted Total Nonfarm employment level of 4,121,500 was 3,000 (0.1%) higher than the October 2013 revised employment level of 4,118,500. Among the major industries in North Carolina, Trade, Transportation & Utilities had the largest over-the-month increase in employment at 15,000 (2.0%), followed by Government (2,800; 0.4%) and Construction (800; 0.5%). Leisure & Hospitality (6,300; 1.4%) had the largest over-the-month decrease, followed by Professional & Business Services (3,200; 0.6%), Financial Actitivies (2,900; 1.4%), Manufacturing (1,400; 0.3%), Other Services (1,200; 0.8%), Education & Health Services (400; 0.1%) and Information (200; 0.3%). Mining & Logging reported no change over the month. Over the year, the Service Providing sector (all industries except Mining & Logging, Construction, and Manufacturing) showed an increase of 60,200 (1.7%) jobs. Professional & Business Services experienced the largest employment increase with 25,700 (4.8%), followed by Trade, Transportation & Utilities (15,600; 2.0%), Education & Health Services (10,000; 1.8%), Leisure & Hospitality (8,300; 2.0%) and Information (5,200; 7.5%). Government (2,900; 0.4%) had the largest over-the-year decrease, followed by Financial Activities (1,000; 0.5%) and Other Services (700; 0.5%). The Goods Producing sector decreased by 2,200 (0.4%) jobs over the year. Construction declined by 2,400 (1.4%), followed by Mining & Logging (100; 1.8%), while Manufacturing grew by 300 (0.1%). Food had the largest amount of manufacturing employment with 52,700 in November 2013. Chemical had the largest net overthe-year increase at 2,000. Other manufacturing industries with over-the-year gains were: Food, 800; Machinery, 700; Wood Product, 700; Furniture & Related Product, 300; Beverage & Tobacco, 200; Transportation Equipment, 200; and Computer & Electronic Product, 100. Average Weekly Hours for manufacturing production workers in November increased 54 minutes from Octobers revised rate of 41.5. Average Hourly Earnings increased by $0.07 to $16.74, as Average Weekly Earnings grew by $17.97 to $709.78. Regular Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (UI) totaled 26,273 in November, decreasing 2,869 from October. Less than 1 percent (0.2%) of Initial Claims for November 2013 were attached to a payroll, meaning that employees expect to be recalled to their jobs. A total of $52,641,863 in regular UI benefits was paid in November to 58,432 claimants statewide a decrease of 2,693 claimants since October 2013. For the 12-month period ending November 2013, $1,824,101,828 was paid from all programs, both state and federal. The UI Trust Fund balance at the end of November was in the red ($1,890,065,051). The State Reserve Fund balance was $54,669,262. Selected Manufacturing Industries With Job Losses November 2012-November 2013
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

0.0

-0.5
In Thousands

-0.7
-1.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-1.5

-1.3

-2.0

Texle Mills

Apparel

Electrical Equipment & Appliance

Prinng & Related Texle Product Support Acvies Mills

Selected Service Industries With Job Gains November 2012-November 2013

(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

18.7 15.2

In Thousands

8.4 6.2 5.6

Admin & Waste Mgmt

Accom. & Food Services

Retail Trade

Professional, Scienc & Tech.

Educaonal Services

UI Taxes Collected and NC Regular UI Benefits Paid December 2012-November 2013

$1,800,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $900,000,000 $600,000,000 $300,000,000 $0 UI Taxes Collected UI Benets Paid

$1,522,816,937

$1,083,721,315

$59,593
Interest Received

Labor & Economic Analysis Division | North Carolina Department of Commerce | 2 of 2

 Technical Notes
This release presents labor force and unemployment estimates from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. Also presented are nonfarm payroll employment estimates the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative endeavors. Labor force and unemployment--from the LAUS program Definitions. The labor force and unemployment estimates are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employment and unemployment on a place-of-residence basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Employed persons are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (the week including the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for such reasons as bad weather, labor-management dispute, illness, or vacation. Unemployed persons are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and were currently available for work; persons on lay-off expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the labor force. Method of estimation. Statewide estimates are produced using an estimation algorithm administered by the BLS. This method, which underwent substantial enhancement at the beginning of 2005, utilizes data from several sources, including the CPS, the CES, and state unemployment insurance (UI) programs. Each month, census division estimates are controlled to national totals, and state estimates are then controlled to their respective division totals. Substate estimates are controlled to their respective state totals. For more information about LAUS estimation procedures, see the BLS website at www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm Revisions. Labor force and unemployment data for the previous month reflect adjustments made in each subsequent month, while data for prior years reflect adjustments made at the end of each year. The monthly revisions incorporate updated model inputs, while the annually revised estimates reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in the other data sources, and model reestimation. In most years, historical data for the most recent five years (both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted) are revised near the beginning of each calendar year, prior to the release of January estimates. Seasonal adjustment. The LAUS program introduced smoothed seasonally adjusted (SSA) estimates in January 2010. These are seasonally-adjusted data that have incorporated a long-run trend smoothing procedure, resulting in estimates that are less volatile than those previously produced. The estimates are smoothed using a filtering procedure, based on moving averages, to remove the irregular fluctuations from the seasonally-adjusted series, leaving the trend. The same process is used on both historical and current year estimates. For more information about the smoothing technique, see the BLS website at www.bls.gov/lau/lassaqa.htm. Area definitions. The substate area data published in this release reflect the standards and definitions established by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on December 1, 2009. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available online at www.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm. Employment--from the CES program Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2012 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a weighted link relative estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous months employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria. For some employment series, relatively small sample sizes limit the reliability of the weighted link-relative estimates. In these cases, BLS uses the CES small domain model (SDM) to generate employment estimates. The SDM combines the direct sample estimates (described above) and forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease the volatility of the estimates. For more detailed information about the CES small domain model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods. Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months. Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted at the statewide supersector level. In some states, the seasonally adjusted payroll employment total is computed by aggregating the independently adjusted supersector series. In other states, the seasonally adjusted payroll employment total is independently adjusted. Revisions of historical data for the most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments. Reliability of the estimates The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability--that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. Model-based error measures for seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data and for over-the-month and overthe-year changes to LAUS estimates are available online at www.bls.gov/lau/lastderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for state CES data at the total nonfarm and supersector levels are available online at www.bls.gov/sae/790stderr.htm. Release Dates The next unemployment update is scheduled for Tuesday, January 7, 2014 when the county unemployment rates for November 2013 will be released. The complete 2013 data release schedule can be accessed at: http://www.nccommerce.com/Portals/47/Documents/2013%20Release%20Dates_revised.pdf