Application Paper #2

Diffusion of Innovation Theory: Smart Watches Erika M. Saca CSUF Comm. 518 Dr. Doug Swanson September 18, 2013

Technology giants are hard at work trying to come up with the next big thing. Open any newspaper and you will find stories of Google, Apple and Samsungs next innovation. Tech gurus write their reviews on new gadgets before the rest of us have even seen them, creating anticipation. The latest example of this is a new gadget category: Smart watches.

Diffusion of Innovation is the theory that can best describe the adoption or rejection of any new technology, including smart watches. Everett Rogers, a sociologist, introduced this theory in the 1960s. Diffusion studies suggest that the way individuals think about innovations affects the rate that innovations are adopted in a social system (Johnson, 2009, 184-201). Diffusion of innovation theory can also help us understand why a new technology will spread faster than others. Rogers writes, The characteristics of an innovation, as perceived by the members of a social system, determine its rate of adoption. The characteristics that determine an innovation's rate of adoption are: (1) relative advantage, (2) compatibility, (3) complexity, (4) trialability, and (5) observability (Rogers, 2002, 989-993).

This weeks issue of Time magazine has dedicated its Tech Briefing section to smart watches. In Wrist wars: The promise and pitfalls of the new smart watches, McCracken writes that Samsung and Sony are competing to take the lead by launching their smart watches this summer. He suggests that if Apple is going to launch its own smart watch, it will wait and deliver a more refined product.

Although these watches are evolving rapidly, theyre not at all smart yet. Theyre satellites for smartphones as opposed to stand-alone devices, using Bluetooth connections to let you place calls, get alerts and more without moving the handset from your pocket. And theyre all bulky,

3 with user interfaces that still need refinement. Your move, Apple (McCracken, 2013, 18). This article is very telling from a diffusion of innovation standpoint. We can analyze situation by looking at it from the five factors that Rogers describes as the characteristics that influence our decision to adopt or reject an innovation (Rogers, 2002, 989-993). Relative advantage, Rogers first factor, cannot really be measured in the case of this new technology, since it is in its infancy. But the writer of the article suggests that Apple will be the one to launch an iWatch that will be a polished version of its predecessors. So by taking a look at the bulky, smartphone-dependent, first generation of smart watches, one can assume, by looking at Apples history that it will take the technology and launch a much sleeker, cooler version of the device.

The second factor to take into consideration with these timepieces is its compatibility with the users lives. What will these watches bring into the mix in the users day to day? We questioned the need for tablets a few years back, and now they are ubiquitous. Time will let us know. One thing is for sure, when we move on to the third factor, complexity/simplicity, these smart watches seem to be complex, for todays standards. Some are not compatible with iPhones, others require a specific model of Android. These factors of compatibility are key for the gadgets to make their way into the mainstream. The fact that they depend on smartphones is a drawback for this generation of smart watches.

Trialability is the third characteristic of innovations that can be analyzed. According to Johnson, being able to try an innovation will speed up its diffusion. So what may now be a geeky niche market, as were the tablets in their early days, has a possibility of spreading and being adopted by a mass market once it is played with and experienced. This also helps us understand the nature of Apple stores that invite the visitors to play with the gadgets and fall in love with them. He writes,

4 Cellphone adoption was easily accelerated because people could see phones in use. In addition, when an innovation can be tried before committing to it, it is more readily adopted. Again, trialability easily applied to cell phone diffusion because a consumer could try out a friends phone before purchasing one of his own (Johnson, 2009, 184201).

Observability is the fifth factor that influences the adoption or rejection of an innovation. According to Rogers, the more we observe the innovation among our peers, we will develop more positive (or negative) reactions. (Rogers, 2002, 989-993). I am yet to see my friends flashing their new smart watches, and it may seem strange at first, as did the idea of carrying around a hard-drive with ear buds years ago. Now I cant imagine the world without an iPod.

Smart watches are still in their infancy, but seem to be the next big thing for the tech industry. It will be interesting to see if Apple will jump in the smart watch bandwagon. If it does, I am sure that it will do so with a relative advantage over the pioneering competition.

REFERENCES

Barker, K. (2004). Diffusion of Innovations: A World Tour. Journal Of Health Communication, 9131-137. Delre, S. A., Jager, W., Bijmolt, T. A., & Janssen, M. A. (2010). Will It Spread or Not? The Effects of Social Influences and Network Topology on Innovation Diffusion. Journal Of Product Innovation Management, 27(2), 267-282.

Hornik, R. (2004). Some Reflections on Diffusion Theory and the Role of Everett Rogers. Journal Of Health Communication, 9143-148. Johnson, M. , & Kim, D. (2009). News coverage of the failed Plensa project: How framing affected the diffusion of public art. Atlantic Journal of Communication, 17(4), 184-201. Rogers, E. (2002). Diffusion of preventive innovations. Addictive Behaviors, 27(6), 989-993. McCracken, H. (2013). Wrist Wars: The promise and pitfalls of the new smart watches. TIME, 18.