MBA Education & Careers

Climate Change:
A catastrophe in the offing
BHARAT JAIN

ur physical environment, and the

preservation of it, rarely demands our
attention. Our world, as we know it,
has always taken care of itself. Or so we believed.
Not anymore. Mans activities, all aimed at attaining
material contentment, has disrupted Natures
age-old processes, including climate patterns.

Changing Climate: Some basic features

Our earth, climatologists say, is heating up. The
thick blanket of air around us, called the
atmosphere, is warming up at an alarming rate.
The pace at which the Third Rock from the Sun
is heating up spells trouble not only for

humankind, but also for all species of flora and

Global warming is one such disruptive fauna that make up the numerous ecosystems.
phenomenon. The issue of global warming has
brought into sharp focus the several
ways in which man, that epitome of
In simple terms, Global Warming
wisdom, is indulging in activities that
can be defined as the average
are changing the climatic make-up of
increase in global surface
our planet, only for worse.

temperature
Environmentalists, who have long
fought many battles on many fronts
including political, recently got a shot in the arm Of all the factors of physical environment which
when the prestigious 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace influence life on Earth, the most important and
was awarded to Albert Gore, former U.S. fundamental is climate. Its influences are so
vice-president, and the Inter-Governmental Panel
on Climate Change, a UN body, for their efforts

varied, so subtle and all pervading as to defy

to draw mankinds attention to the disaster-in-

in climate is as old as the history of humankind.

the-making phenomenon of Global Warming.

All life on our planet is dependent on it. Climatic

Let me bring to you a detailed note on Global

influences are three-fold. Firstly, climate has a

Warming.

direct bearing on the health and activity of all

complete identification and analysis. Our interest

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I NDIA AND THE WORLD : CLIMATE CHANGE

Expert Speak on Bali Roadmap
This agreement is a vital step forward for the whole world.... The
Bali Roadmap is just the first step. Now begins the hardest work, as all
nations work towards a deal in Copenhagen in 2009 to address the defining
challenge of our time.
Gordon Brown, Prime Minister of UK
living species. Secondly, it has a very strong

Warming in the 20th century is greater than at

indirect but immediate effect on life through food

any earlier time during the past 500-600 years.

and other resources. Lastly, climate has been the

The evidence that human-induced global warming

most dominant factor behind migrations, racial

is real has become increasingly clear and

features, and natural selection.

compelling. The fact that global warming is real

The climate is changing, and changing for the

and underway can be clear from the following:

worse. The current global temperature is in the

Evidence of Global Warming

range of 15 Celsius. In the past, this may have

Seven of the warmest years in the 20th

been as high as 27 and as low as 7 Celsius. The

century occurred in the 1990s. 1998 was

average temperature of the Earth over the last 40

the hottest year on record.

years has risen by 0.5 Celsius. Climatologists

Non-polar glaciers are receding and records

are worried that the natural fluctuations (induced

show the Arctic ice pack has lost about 40%

by non-human activity) have been overtaken by

of its thickness over the past four decades.

a very fast human-induced warming that has

Sea levels have risen 10-20 cm i.e. 3 times

catastrophic implications for the Earth in general

faster over the past 100 years compared

and all life on Earth in particular.

to the previous 3,000 years.

Global Warming can be defined as the average

According to the IPCC, plants and animals

increase in global surface temperature.

are changing their behaviour in response

Climatologists predict a global temperature

to shifts in climate.

increase by 1.4-5.8 Celsius by 2100. To put this

Factors that cause Global Warming

rise in context, compare it with the fact that global

Climatologists blame the greenhouse effect for

temperatures are thought to have fluctuated by

the abnormal heating up of the Earth. The

only 1 Celsius since the dawn of civilisation.

greenhouse effect refers to the role played by a

Such a comparison gives us a glimpse of the truly

large number of gases which effectively trap the

devastating consequences for all life on Earth.

heat from the Sun in the Earths atmosphere.

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Without these gases, the Earth would be too cold
to sustain life as we know it. The greenhouse

HOW WE USE FOSSIL FUELS

World Consumption 2003
57.8%

OIL

gases (GHGs) include water-vapour, carbon

dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, etc. These
are all natural greenhouse gases, meaning that
they were present in the atmosphere before the
emergence of man. The main industrial (or

19.9%

6.6%

15.7%
49.5%

GAS

human-induced) gases are halocarbons which

Transport
Other*
Non-energy
Industry

include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and sulphur

hexafluoride. These are released through
agriculture, industry, and the burning of fossil

5.2%

45.3%
76.1%

COAL

fuels (like coal, wood, etc.).

Some of the ways in which human-induced
warming takes place are listed below:

* Other includes
agriculture,
commercial &
public service
and residential.

2.4%
20.5% 1.0%

Source: IEA 2005

Fossil fuel production

Propellants in sprays like deodorants
Fluids for filling fridges and any devices
that chill
Rice paddies

Globally, we can expect more extreme

weather events with heat waves becoming
hotter and more frequent. While on an
average, the globe will get warmer and
receive more rainfall, the risk of drought in

Biomass consumption (like wood burning)

inland areas in summer will increase. Rising

Cattle raising (cattle emit methane, a GHG)

sea levels will lead to floods and consequent

loss of life and property as low-lying islands

Industrial processes like manufacturing of

semiconductors & cellular phones
Fertiliser use in agriculture
Vehicular emissions
Consequences: A catastrophe in the offing

and shorelines get inundated.

More droughts would result in more and more
conflicts for water resources and far-reaching
changes in food production conditions.
The World Health Organisation has warned

Rising global temperatures invite a growing risk

that there will be a greater potential for heat-

that the climate will change in ways that will

related illnesses and deaths, as well as the

seriously disrupt all forms of life on our planet.

Individual regions will experience different

wider spread of infectious diseases carried

by insects and rodents into areas previously

climatic changes and environmental impact.

free from them.

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I NDIA AND THE WORLD : CLIMATE CHANGE

Expert Speak on Bali Roadmap
Parties have recognised the urgency of action on climate change and
have now provided the political response to what scientists have been
telling us is needed.
Yvo De Boer, UN climate chief
Plant and animal extinctions are predicted
as habitats change faster than species can
adapt.
Simply put, if climate trends continue
unabated, global warming will endanger our
life, threaten our land, farms, beaches,
wetlands, and other natural habitats.
In addition to the above, the latest IPCC report,
which was issued recently, has painted a bleak
future for earthlings, if the issue of Global
Warming is not addressed with utmost urgency.
IPCC report paints grim picture of the future
In its latest report, the Inter-Governmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a stark
warning on global warming. The following
observations were made by the UN body:
The impact of global warming could be
abrupt or irreversible and no country would
be spared.
Evidence of the planets warming is now
unequivocal.
Retreating glaciers and loss of Alpine snow,
thinning Arctic summer sea ice, and thawing
permafrost show that climate change is
already on the march.
6 January 2008

By 2100 global average surface

temperatures could rise by between 1.1 C
and 6.4 C compared to 1980-99 levels.
Sea levels will rise by at least 18
centimeters. The earlier estimate of an
upper limit of 59 centimeters does not take
into account uncertainties about the impact
of disrupted carbon cycles and melting
ice-sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic.
Heat waves, rainstorms, tropical cyclones,
and surges in sea levels are expected to
become more frequent more widespread or
more intense this century.
All countries will be affected by climate
change but those in the forefront are poor
nations especially small island states and
developing economies where hundreds of
millions of people live in low-level deltas.
Reducing emissions can be met at a
moderate cost relative to global GDP but
the window of opportunity for quickly
reaching a safer stable level is closing fast.
Every human being should realise the
importance of the challenge and take action
through changes in lifestyle and attitude.
Impact of climate change on India
Rising global and adverse climate change could
affect Indias economy and its growth story unless

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I NDIA AND THE WORLD : CLIMATE CHANGE

Gas

2020

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Oil

Nuclear

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urgent shift to a low-carbon economy in

Coal

2010

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In his voluminous report, Stern calls for an

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commissioned for the British Government.

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economist of the World Bank, was

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authored by Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief

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(released in November 2006). The Report,

2030

Hydro

*Includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.

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some of the observations of the Stern Report

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on monsoon pattern and river flows. These are

Billion tonne oil equivalent

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2
0
1971
2002

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of increased surface temperature and its effect

PROJECTED FUTURE DEMAND

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a range of steps are taken to address the effects

*Other

Source: IEA2005

countries like India which could translate into

huge business opportunities for the developed
world. The report presents a plethora of evidence
quantifying the economic costs of climate change

temperature. Regionally within India,

northern India will be warmer.

in India. Experts from the University of Reading

20% rise in summer monsoon rainfall.

have estimated that mean summer rainfall in India

Extreme temperatures and precipitations are

will increase by 10% along with rainfall

expected to increase.

intensity and this will be accompanied by more

All states will have increased rainfall except

regional variations. This is likely to affect

Punjab, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu where

agriculture and, therefore, GDP growth.

it will decrease. Extreme precipitation will

The review identifies three elements of policy

increase, particularly along the western

required for an effective response: carbon

coast and west central India.

pricing, through tax, trading or regulation, so

Hydrological cycle is likely to be altered.

that people pay the full social cost of their

Drought and flood intensity will increase.

actions; policy to support innovation and

Krishna, Narmada, Cauvery, and Tapi river

deployment of low-carbon technologies and

basins will experience severe water stress

removal of barriers to energy efficiency and

and drought condition, while Mahanadi,

measures to inform, educate and persuade.

Godavari, and Brahmani will experience

Some of the key predictions (specific to India),

according to the Stern report, of changes over
the next 100 years:
Regional climate models suggest 2.5-5
degrees Celsius rise in mean surface

enhanced flood.
Crop yield decrease with temperature and
rise with precipitation. Prediction for loss
of wheat is more. Rabi crops will be worse
hit which threatens food security.
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MBA Education & Careers

I NDIA AND THE WORLD : CLIMATE CHANGE

Expert Speak on Bali Roadmap
This deal is very disappointing. We said we needed a roadmap, but this
conference has failed to give us a clear destination. We urgently need to
find a way forward for an international agreement. This is a journey we
have to make together.
Friends of the Earth, a leading environment group
Economic loss due to temperature rise
estimated between 9-25%. GDP loss may
be to the tune of 0.67%. Coastal agriculture
(especially in the states of Gujarat,
Maharashtra, and Karnataka) will suffer
most; Punjab, Haryana, Western UP will
face reduction in yield, and West Bengal,
Orissa, and Andhra Pradesh will gain
marginally.
100 cm sea level rise can lead to welfare
loss of $1259 million in India equivalent to
0.36% of GNP.
Frequencies and intensities of tropical
cyclones in Bay of Bengal will increase
particularly in the post-monsoon period and
flooding will increase in low-lying coastal
areas.
Malaria will continue to be endemic in
current malaria-prone states (Orissa, West
Bengal, southern parts of Assam, and north
of West Bengal). It may shift from the
central Indian region to the south-western
coastal states of Maharashtra, Karnataka,
and Kerala. New regions (Himachal
Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland,
Manipur, and Mizoram) will become
malaria prone and transmission duration
8 January 2008

window will widen in northern and western

states and shorten in southern states.
What can we do
Global Warming results primarily from mans
activities that release heat-trapping gases and
other particles into the atmosphere. Fortunately,
we are fully capable of taking measures to slow
down the pace of and eventually, control Global
Warming.
Following are some measures suggested by the
IPCC and other leading environmental groups.
Options for change
Reduce consumer demand for heavily
polluting goods and services.
Make global energy supply more efficient.
Act on non-energy emissions - preventing
further deforestation would go a long way
towards alleviating this source of carbon
emissions.
Promote cleaner energy and transport
technology, with non-fossil fuels accounting
for 60% of energy output by 2050.
In addition to the measures suggested above, we
can also look at some other measures that can
help us control climatic changes. To reduce the

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RENEWABLES: AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES
OF CAPACITY 2000-2004
Solar PV*, linked to grid
Wind Power
Biodiesel
Solar hot water/heating
Solar PV*, not grid-linked
Geothermal heating
Ethanol
Small hydropower
Biomass power
Geothermal power
Biomass heating
Large hydropower
*PV = photovoltaic

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emission of greenhouse gases like carbon

dioxide and methane, we can reduce our
consumption of fossil fuels, use technologies
that reduce the amount of emissions, and
protect the worlds forests. Also, we can take
measures to mitigate the impact of Global
Warming by adopting those viable technologies
that are most likely to help in this endeavour.
By employing careful long-term strategies, we
can reduce our vulnerability to Global
Warming.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: Renewables 2005 Status Report Worldwatch

The Kyoto Protocol

Probably the best move the international
community has made to address the issue of
Global Warming is the Kyoto Protocol.
Established in 1997, the Protocol commits
developed countries to specific targets for
reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.
Developed countries have committed to cut their
combined emissions to 5% below 1990 levels by
2008-2012.

dealt a serious blow to the Protocol, when it pulled

out in 2001. The U.S. said that signing the
Protocol would harm its economy. The U.S.
has described the Protocol as fatally flawed,
partly because it does not require developing
countries (like China and India, two of the largest
polluters among developing countries) to commit
to emission reductions.
The Protocol acknowledges that developing

Each country that signed the Protocol agreed to

its own specific target. Japan has agreed to 5%
while the European Union, the Protocols biggest
proponent, has agreed to slash its emissions by
8%. Some countries with low emissions have been
allowed to increase them.

countries contribute least to Global Warming but

The Protocol stipulates that for it to become

binding in international law, it must be ratified
by the countries who together are responsible for
55% of 1990 global greenhouse gas emissions.

the Kyoto Protocol. They do not have to commit

The United States, which contributes a little over

a quarter of total global greenhouse gas emission,

The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. So what after

will most likely suffer the most from its effects.

China is the second biggest polluter after the U.S.,
but because it is a developing country, it need
not commit itself to emission reduction. Many
developing countries including India, have signed
to specific targets but have to report their emission
levels. They would also have to develop national
climate change mitigation programmes.

that? To address this concern, the United Nations

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Recognises that deep cuts in global
emissions will be required to achieve the
ultimate objective of the UN climate
convention, namely avoiding dangerous
climate change.

THINNING OF ARCTIC SEA ICE

Metres
4

Decides to look at a long-term global

goal for emission reductions.

0
Chukchi Beaufort Canada
Cap
Sea
Basin
Thickness of
ice 1958-76

North
Pole

Nansen
Basin

Eastern
Arctic

Thickness of
ice 1993-97

Source: UNEP

Climate Change Conference took place in Bali,

Indonesia in the first week of December 2007.
The Bali Roadmap
After days of bitter wrangling between various
lobby groups, an agreement emerged out of the
United Nations Climate Change Conference. The
agreement, called the Bali Roadmap, has helped
initiate a two-year negotiating process aimed at
securing a binding deal at the 2009 UN summit
in Denmark. The climate deal could come about
only after the U.S. made a turnaround and agreed
to go with the sense of the conference
delegations.
The following are some of the highlights of the
Bali Roadmap.
Cutting Emissions
Acknowledges that evidence for the planet
warming is unequivocal, and that delays
in reducing emissions increase the risks of
severe climate change impacts.
10 January 2008

Developed nations to take on

commitments that are measurable,
reportable and verifiable, and nationally
appropriate. May or may not include
quantified, binding targets for all or some.
For developing nations, measurable,
reportable and verifiable actions in the
context of sustainable development,
supported by technology and enabled by
financing and capacity-building, i.e. only
with Western support.
Forests
Pledges to consider policy approaches
and positive incentives to reduce
deforestation and conserve forest cover.
Funds pledged to World Bank to initiate
pilot projects under the banner of
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
in Developing countries (REDD).

Adaptation
Decides on enhanced co-operation to
support urgent implementation of
measures to protect poorer countries against
climate change impacts.
Acknowledges
that
economic
diversification can build resilience.

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Expert Speak on Bali Roadmap
We need the U.S. at the table ready to do that in order to get other countries
to come on, but Yes, it [the conference] does provide the opening for
the next person in the White House, and I'm confident that whoever that
person is therell be a greater willingness to engage constructively in
this process.
Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Resolves to consider ways of reducing the

polar caps, the Earth has seen it all. Such events

occurrence or damage from natural

point to a built-in climate instability. However,

disasters.

this instability occurred over a long period of

Technology Transfer

time.

Will consider how to remove obstacles to,

But what has exacerbated this instability is that

and provide financial and other incentives

we are expediting it by our actions. The potential

for, scaling up the transfer of clean energy

for catastrophic consequences is extremely high.

technologies from industrialised nations to

the developing world.
Decides to re-instate an expert group on
technology transfer to advise developing
countries.
Time-scale

The future of the Earth is in our hands.

Ultimately it is our responsibility to control
Global Warming. What we, in the arrogance of
our intelligence, often forget is that this is our
only home. We should strive to make it better
by changing ourselves for good. There is a

A subsidiary body will begin work on the

dividend to such behaviour: If we take care of

Bali Roadmap as soon as possible. Views

Nature, she will reciprocate. If we dont, then

of parties to be sought by late February

we may singe in Mother Natures fury. M E & C

2008, and the first meeting to be held in

March or April 2008.
Further review meetings scheduled; process
to be completed at the 2009 UN summit in
Copenhagen, Denmark.
Last word
Our planet has had a long history of pretty abrupt
climate changes. From ice-ages to melting of the
January 2008 11