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❄

A Probabilistic Approach for

❄

Cooling Load Calculation

2

Taperit Tongshoob1 and Chirdpun Vitooraporn2

1

Ph.D Student

Lecturer at Building Technology and Environment Laboratory,

Mechanical Engineering Department, Chulalongkorn University,

Phyathai Rd, Patumwan, Bangkok, Thailand, 10330

Tel : 662-2218-6622 Fax : 662-2252-2889 E-mail: chirdpun@chula.com2

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how the probability can be used as a decision tool for justifying the

appropriate results from the cooling load calculation. The ventilation heat gain, as one component in

cooling load, is used to demonstrate the method presented in this paper. The probability for each amount

of ventilation heat gain under various design condition is calculated. The results of ventilation heat gain in

the studying case vary from 436 to 593 kW depend on what design condition is used. By using 98% of

cumulative density function, it indicates that the amount of ventilation heat gain is 537 kW. Using this

probability information one can now logically decide for an appropriate amount of ventilation heat gain

used and hence cooling load amount. This will lead to an efficient in energy management as well as

reducing the risk in air conditioning system investment.

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

However cooling load calculations depend not only

Cooling load is the rate of heat which must on temperature but also on other parameters such

be removed from the space to maintain a specific as lighting or occupants. These parameters

space air temperature and moisture content. The sometimes are uncertain and in some cases are

parameters affecting cooling load calculations are difficult to find the exact information. This leads to

numerous, for example, the outside air temperature, the uncertainty in the calculation result. Therefore

the humidity ratio, the number and activity of people safety factor always involves in the final phase of

and etc. These parameters are often difficult to cooling load calculations

precisely define and always intricately interrelated.

Many cooling load components vary in magnitude 2. Probabilistic Approach

over a wide range during a 24 hr period. These

cyclic changes in load components are not often in In order to attack this uncertainty problem

phase with each other. Each must be analyzed to in cooling load calculation, we must first categorize

establish the maximum cooling load for a building parameters those affect the cooling load. They can

or zone. Moreover effects of thermal accumulation be divided into 2 types, i.e. uncontrollable and

also involve in calculating procedure. Therefore controllable parameters. Uncontrollable parameters,

various models and assumptions are developed. The such as outside air temperature, affect the change

estimated results at the specific time of calculation in the probability of cooling load occurrence while

are normally expected and not the exact ones. controllable parameters, such as type and shading

By referring to or using difference values of coefficient of glass, do not affect the change in the

parameters at the same specific time of calculation probability of cooling load occurrence. Conventionally

will result in difference outcomes of the calculation. the standard values of uncontrollable parameters

Most of the reference data for the parameters used that related to climate such as outside air

in calculation are from the American Society of temperature are obtained from data collection

Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers with statistical analysis. For non-climate type

(ASHRAE) standards which obtained from data uncontrollable parameters, such as lighting, the

collection and experiments. However the standards values are obtained from laboratory experiment for

do not present the probability and variance of those a specific condition. Therefore in each case we are

data as well as the chances that other data apart restricted to only one standard value for each

from standard data might occur. ASHRAE standards parameters considered for the calculation. Under

define the design conditions in the form of maximum the new concept, all data values must be considered

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

along with probability density function that indicates for the maximum wet-bulb temperature. This

the frequencies of occurrence, not just the standard indicates that the maximum ventilation heat gain

ones. The cooling load received from the calculation can be occurred at any point. Therefore in order to

will contain its own probability to indicate the chance determine the probability of ventilation as well as

for that specific cooling load to occur. Therefore its maximum heat gain value at any condition, both

specifying the amount of cooling load used can be the probability of dry-bulb temperature and the

logically decided. This will help reducing the risk in probability of humidity ratio must be used.

air conditioning system investment.

4. Probabilistic Approach for

3. Cooling Load Calculation Ventilation Heat Gain

Calculation

Heat gains that enter into or are generated

in space are external heat gain, internal heat gain For constant, , , cp and T i, the

and ventilation heat gain. Only ventilation heat gain sensibleheat gain is a function of outside dry-bulb

is considered in this paper to demonstrate the temperature and is given by;

application of probabilistic in cooling load calculations. (1)

Heat gain from ventilation is important for or

areas that need high ventilation rate, for example (2)

restaurant, theater, and etc. Ventilation is used to

maintain indoor air quality to standard condition. where

Unless the ventilation is used to maintain indoor air = specific heat of air

quality, it affects to the thermal comfort condition = air density

in the buildings. = air volume flow rate

Ventilation heat gain calculations are normally = outside temperature

referred to ASHRAE standard. The maximum dry- = inside temperature

bulb temperature is used to calculate maximum

sensible heat gain. At the maximum wet-bulb If the probability density function (PDF) of

temperature, if dry-bulb temperature is high, latent the outside temperature is , then by

heat gain may decrease. In the contrary, at the definition

maximum humidity ratio, latent heat gain is always Cumulative density function (CDF)

the maximum. Moreover the maximum humidity

ratio value is not necessary to be the same condition (3)

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

heat gain can be obtained by using the equivalent and domain and is given by

of cumulative density function on range

and domain and is given by (9)

combination of sensible heat gain and latent heat

Latent heat gain is given by gain.

(5) (10)

= enthalpy of saturated water function of total ventilation heat gain, we must first

= outside humidity ratio find the probability of relative probability density

= inside humidity ratio function of sensible heat gain and latent heat gain;

. This relative function can

If , , hfg and wi are constant then be obtained by using the equivalent of cumulative

latent heat gain is a function of outside humidity density function on range and

ratio domain and is given by

(6)

or (11)

(7)

If the probability density function (PDF) of The probability density function of total

humidity ratio is , then by definition ventilation heat gain can be found from

Cumulative density function (CDF)

(12)

(8)

gain can be obtained by using the equivalent of

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

or paper.

requires ventilation rate = 10 m3/s, inside

temperature = 24OC and inside relative humidity

ratio = 50% . Determine the appropriate

If we consider that the outside temperature amount of ventilation heat gain.

and the humidity ratio are independent, which is

normally the assumption for the calculation then

the probability density function of relative probability

density function of sensible heat and latent heat

gain is given by Data obtained from the Meteorological

department of Thailand at Bangkok station during

(14) year 2001-2003 are shown in table 1

and the probability density function of total ventilation Table 1 Temperature Data

heat gain is

Mean Variance

Dry-bulb

29.1OC 8.12OC2

temperature (Tdb)

Wet-bulb

25.2OC 4.13OC2

temperature (Twb)

Humidity ratio (w) 0.0187 0.00000681

Note: Humidity ratio is calculated from dry-bulb and wet-

bulb temperature data.

(15)

Solution

5. Case Study

Condition 1: Consider using dry-bulb temperature

The following case studies are used to at 98.0 % design condition and mean coincident

illustrate the usefulness of the new concept to wet-bulb temperature that indicate maximum

consider the ventilation heat gain presented in this sensible heat gain.

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

O

condition is 35 C. Mean coincident wet-bulb is 0.0241. Mean coincident dry-bulb temperature is

temperature is 26.8OC. For Tdb = 24OC and 29.9OC

Rh = 50%, the humidity ratio is w = 0.0092 Therefore

Therefore

and

and

Condition 2.1: Consider using wet-bulb temperature at 98.0 % design condition and humidity

temperature at 98.0 % design condition and mean ratio at 98.0 % design condition.

coincident dry-bulb temperature that indicate Therefore

maximum latent heat gain.

Wet-bulb temperature at 98.0 % design

condition is 29.3OC. Mean coincident dry-bulb

temperature is 33.1OC. For Twb = 29.3OC and

Tdb = 33.1OC, the humidity ratio is w = 0.0244 and

Therefore

heat gain varies from 436 to 593 kW depend on

and what design condition is used. The question is what

should be the appropriate value for ventilation heat

gain to consider in our cooling load calculation. The

Condition 2.2: Consider using humidity ratio at design condition as we always use in our

98.0 % design condition and mean coincident dry- conventional method is obviously not the logical

bulb temperature that indicate maximum latent heat answer to this question since it is just the condition

gain. we select in order to accomplish the calculation.

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

From the least mean square error in several is only 2% of chance that the ventilation heat gain

distribution models, we found that the suitable PDF will be more than 537.05 kW.

of dry-bulb temperature and humidity The results of ventilation heat gain amount

ratio are normal distribution and the dry- from various design conditions as previously

bulb temperature and humidity ratio are assumed mentioned can be substituted in to the graph shown

to be independent then using equation (15) the in figure 1 to find the cumulative density function

PDF of total ventilation heat gain can be found as of their own. Results are presented in table 2

follow;

Table 2 CDF for ventilation heat gain at various

design conditions

Design Condition Ventilation CDF value

98 % Tdb and

436.65 kW 82.49

Mean Twb

98 % Twb and

579.33 kW 99.48

The above equation is integrated to obtain Mean Tdb

98 % w and

the cumulative density function of ventilation heat 530.75 kW 97.77

Mean Tdb

gain. The result is shown in figure 1.

98 % Tdb and

593.48 kW 99.68

98 % w

98 % Total

537.05 kW 98.00

Heat Gain

make a decision to pick up the value for ventilation

heat gain with chances that they are willing to take

Figure 1: Cumulative density function of ventilation for 98% design condition.

heat gain.

In figure 1, various ventilation heat gain

amounts are now equipped with their own

cumulative density function. For example, at 98%

of cumulative density function, it indicates that there

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

6. Conclusion

load which involves the probability density function

is presented using the ventilation heat gain as an

example. Under this method, the appropriate amount

of cooling load can be logically determined using

the known cumulative density function as a tool for

decision making. Engineers can now state an amount

of cooling load by knowing the probability that the

load will occur. This helps reducing the risk in air

conditioning system investment.

7. Acknowledgements

Building Technology and Environment Laboratory,

Mechanical Engineering Department, and the

Graduate School of Chulalongkorn University, which

the author acknowledges.

ASHRAE Thailand Chapter

8. References

[1] ASHRAE, 1993 ASHRAE Handbooks Fundamental (SI), Atlanta: American Society of Heating,

Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., 1993.

[2] ASHRAE, 2001 ASHRAE Handbooks Fundamental (SI), Atlanta: American Society of Heating,

Refrigeration and Air-ConditioningEngineers, Inc., 2001.

[3] McQuiston, Faye C. and Spitler, Jeffery D., Cooling and Heating Load Calculation Manual, 2nd ed.,

American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., 1994.

[4] McQuiston, Faye C., Parker, Jerald D. and Spitler, Jeffery D., Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning;

Analysis and Design, 5th ed., John Wieley & Son, 2000.

[5] Stoecker, W.F., Design of Thermal System,3rd ed., McGraw-Hill, 1989.

[6] A. H-S Ang and W.H. Tang, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, John Wieley,

New York, 1975.

[7] Jim Pitman, Probability, Springer Verlag, 1993.

[8] S.C. Gupta, V.K. Kapoor, Fundamentals of Mathematical Statistics, Sultan Chand & Son, Delhi, 1973.

[9] Pederson C.O., Development of Heat Balance for Cooling Load, ASHRAE Transaction, 1997.

[10] Pederson C.O., Richard J. Liesen, An Evaluation of Inside Surface Heat Balance Model for Cooling

Load Calculations, ASHRAE Transaction, 1997.

[11] Pederson C.O., Todd M. McClellan, Investigation of Outside Heat Balance Models for Used in a Heat

Balance, ASHRAE Transaction, 1997.

[12] The Metrological Department of Thailand, Climate data record sheet, The Metrological Department of

Thailand, Bangkok, 2001-2003.

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