Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Introduction .................................................................................. 12
1. Forecasting Techniques ............................................................. 12
2. Management information systems ............................................ 27
3. Inventory control ....................................................................... 28
4. Material requirements planning ................................................ 31
5. Project planning ......................................................................... 35
6. Investment appraisal techniques........................................... 37
Conclusion ..................................................................................... 38
Reference..................................................................................... 38
11
Introduction
iViet Technology Company is an emerging IT firm manufactures iViet brand
personal and laptop computers in Da Nang industrial park. Founded by young
Vietnamese entrepreneurs in 2000, the company exclusively exports its products to
foreign market such as Europe, America, Japan, Southeast Asia and other parts of
the world.
The components used in manufacturing iViet computers such as processor,
hard disk, main-board, power supply unit, DVD drives, and memory cards are
outsourced from a number of suppliers in China, Taiwan and ASEAN countries and
shipped to iViet plant by air freight, Only personal computer casings are produced
locally.
To make iViet Technology Company has a better result in business, iViet
should do some activities about forecasting techniques, management information
systems, inventory control, material requirements planning, project plan and
investment appraisal techniques. Therefore, these tools will help iviet Technology
Company can operate effectively and success.
1. Forecasting technologies
Sales forecast for 2010 can be make base on the quarterly sales data, in
thousands units, from 200 to 2009. The data are provided as follow:
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Quarter 1
48
52
54
50
55
Quarter 2
46
48
55
54
50
Quarter 3
27
32
42
37
36
Quarter 4
45
50
52
46
50
The additive model and the proportional model and also least square
regression method which we will use to make a time series analysis of the data and
forecasts for the budget year 2010.
12
Quarter
No (X)
2005
Sales (Y)
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
48,000
46,000
27,000
45,000
52,000
48,000
32,000
50,000
54,000
55,000
42,000
52,000
50,000
54,000
37,000
46,000
55,000
50,000
36,000
50,000
60000
y = 235.34x + 43979
R = 0.0311
50000
40000
30000
Series1
20000
Linear (Series1)
10000
0
0
10
15
20
25
The b =
The a =
= 43979
= 235.34x
13
The equation of a straight line has a form y = 235.34x + 43979, where x = 0 in the
first quarter of 2005, and y(0)= 48,000. Using this trend line, we can predict sales in
2010 as the following table.
Year
Quarter
2010
Quarter 1
20
48,300
Quarter 2
21
48,650
Quarter 3
22
49,000
Quarter 4
23
49,350
195,300
total
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
14
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Quarter
No
Sales
Moving
Average
4
Moving
Average
2
S=Y-T
Trend
(Regession)
S=Y-T
48,000
44,214
3,786
46,000
44,450
1,550
27,000
41,500
42,000
-15,000
45,000
42,500
42,750
2,250
17,685
44,920
80
52,000
43,000
43,625
8,375
45,156
6,844
48,000
44,250
44,875
3,125
45,391
2,609
32,000
45,500
45,750
-13,750
45,626
50,000
46,000
46,875
3,125
13,626
45,862 4,138
54,000
47,750
49,000
5,000
46,097
7,903
55,000
50,250
50,500
4,500
46,332
8,668
10
42,000
50,750
50,250
-8,250
46,568
-4,568
11
52,000
49,750
49,625
2,375
46,803
5,197
12
50,000
49,500
48,875
1,125
47,038
2,962
13
54,000
48,250
47,500
6,500
47,274
6,726
14
37,000
46,750
47,375
-10,375
47,509
15
46,000
48,000
47,500
-1,500
10,509
47,744 -1,744
16
55,000
47,000
46,875
8,125
47,980
7,020
17
50,000
46,750
47,250
2,750
48,215
1,785
18
36,000
47,750
19
50,000
15
44,685
48,450
12,450
48,686 1,314
From outcome above, the summary of seasonal variation as the table below:
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average
Adjustment so
sum is zero
Adjustments
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
8,375
5,000
1,125
8,125
5,656
102
3,125
4,500
6,500
2,750
4,219
102
5,758
4,320
Quarter 3
-15,000
-13,750
-8,250
-10,375
Quarter 4
2,250
3,125
2,375
-1,500
Residual
-11,844
102
1,563
102
-406
406
-11,742
1,664
Final estimate of average quarter variation might be rounded up and down as follows:
Q1
; Q2
; Q3
; Q4
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Trend
Season
48,300
48,650
49,000
49,350
Total
5,758
4,320
-11,742
1,664
30000
Linear (Series1)
20000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
16
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
No
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Sales
48,000
46,000
27,000
45,000
52,000
48,000
32,000
50,000
54,000
55,000
42,000
52,000
50,000
54,000
37,000
46,000
55,000
50,000
36,000
50,000
Moving Moving
Average Average
4
2
41,500
42,500
43,000
44,250
45,500
46,000
47,750
50,250
50,750
49,750
49,500
48,250
46,750
48,000
47,000
46,750
47,750
17
42,000
42,750
43,625
44,875
45,750
46,875
49,000
50,500
50,250
49,625
48,875
47,500
47,375
47,500
46,875
47,250
S=Y/T
64.29%
105.26%
119.20%
106.96%
69.95%
106.67%
110.20%
108.91%
83.58%
104.79%
102.30%
113.68%
78.10%
96.84%
117.33%
105.82%
Trend
(Regession)
44,214
44,450
44,685
44,920
45,156
45,391
45,626
45,862
46,097
46,332
46,568
46,803
47,038
47,274
47,509
47,744
47,980
48,215
48,450
48,686
S=Y/T
108.56%
103.49%
60.42%
100.18%
115.16%
105.75%
70.13%
109.02%
117.14%
118.71%
90.19%
111.10%
106.30%
114.23%
77.88%
96.35%
114.63%
103.70%
74.30%
102.70%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average
Q1
Q2
119.20%
110.20%
102.30%
117.33%
112.26%
106.96%
108.91%
113.68%
105.82%
108.84%
Q3
64.29%
69.95%
83.58%
78.10%
Q4
105.26%
106.67%
104.79%
96.84%
Total
73.98%
103.39%
398.47%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Trend
48,300
48,650
49,000
49,350
total
Season
113%
109%
74%
104%
30000
Linear (Series1)
20000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
18
REPORT
To: International Export Manager
From: Assistant Manager
Date: September 20th 2010
REPORT ABOUT FORECAST SALES FOR 2010
1.
2.
3.
4.
Executive summary
Methods of forecast
Findings
Recommendation
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As a result, this report will supply to information about sales forecasts for 2010
from quarterly sales data, in thousand units, from the past five years. In the report, it
is also include recommendations for the number of personal computers to be in
upcoming budget year, 2010, and using the threes methods: the least square
regression, the additive model and proportional model was requested by Miss Linh,
International Export Manager.
METHODS FORECASTS
The report has been compiled from three methods as follow:
Least squares regression method
Additive model
Proportional model
FIDINGSS
Sales forecasts for 2010 using the least square regression method.
Through calculated by the least square regression method, we can see the
number of personal computers increases regularly from the quarter 1 to quart 4 in
2010. Base on the trend line, the sales of personal computers in the first quarter of
year 2010 is about 48,300 (thousand units). Similarly, it continuously increase to
48,650 (thousand units) in the second quarter, 49,000(thousand units) in the third
quarter and 49,350 (thousand units) in the fourth quarter. The total sales is 195,300
(thousand units) in 2010.
Sales forecasts for 2010 using the additive model method
Through calculated by the additive model method (forecast = T+S), we can
see the sales of first quarter in 2010 is highest with 54,058 thousand units. The sales
of second and third quarter went down with 52,970 thousand units in second quarter
19
and 37,014 thousand units in third quarter. However, the sale of four quarter is
increase to 49,350 thousand units. In summarize, the total sales of the years 2010
are 195,300 thousand units.
Sales forecasts for 2010 using the proportional model method
Through calculated by the additive model method (forecast = T*S), we can
see the sales of first quarter in 2010 is highest with 54,579 thousand units. The sales
of second and third quarter are decrease with 53,029 thousand units in second
quarter and 36,260 thousand units in third quarter. However, the sale of four quarter
is increase to 51,324 thousand units. In summarize, the total sales of the year 2010
are 195,192 thousand units.
RECOMMANDATION
As a result, I think we should use the result of proportional model because it is
more practical. Based on the result of forecast sales for 2010, company should
manufacture the quantity of products for 2010 equal to products quantity forecasted.
It helps the company save budget and production wastefully. The quantity of
products are manufactured which is up to quarters such as Q1 is 54,579 thousand
units, Q2 is 53,029 thousand units, Q3 is 36,260 thousand units, Q4 is 51,424
thousand units.
In order to disseminate information effectively and persuasively to Mss Linh
and the management team, I make business presentation as follow:
20
Report
Methods forecasting
Findings
Recommendation
21
22
Year
Quarter
2010
Quarter 1
20
48,300
Quarter 2
21
48,650
Quarter 3
22
49,000
Quarter 4
23
49,350
195,300
total
The sales of 2010 is raise gradually from Q1 to Q4. the total sales of
2010 is 195,300
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
23
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
2010
Trend
Season
Q1
48,300
5,758
Q2
48,650
4,320
52,970
Q3
49,000
-11,742
37,258
Q4
49,350
1,664
51,014
Total
195,300
The sales in the third is lower than other quarter of 2010. the sales
in the first quarter is highest with 54,058 thousand units
50000
40000
30000
Series1
Linear (Series1)
20000
10000
0
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
24
Trend
2010
Q1
48,300
113%
Forecast of actual
sales (S*T)
54,579
Q2
48,650
109%
53,029
Q3
49,000
74%
36,260
49,350
104%
Q4
Season
total
51,324
195,192
We can see that the first and second quarter 2010 have increase
compare with 2009. the third quarter of 2010 is decrease with 36,260
thousand units. However, the four quarter is increase with 51,324
thousand units.
25
50000
40000
30000
Series1
Linear (Series1)
20000
10000
0
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
26
27
3. Inventory Control
Based on the information given in the scenario, we have:
Demand (D)
180,000 components
$600/order
10%*unit price
$75
310 days
TMC4000=|
= 5,367 units
A negotiation process, Eastern Digital agreed to supply with the following volume
discount terms:
Order brand
4,000units or less
4,001 8,000
8,001 units or more
(stop)
(accept)
(Increase to 8001)
From the results above, we choose the order quantity is 8001 or more units because
the TMC = $11,739,502 is minimized.
If we order (4000 8001) we can save:
The annual saving costs
= TMC4000 TMC8001= $13,542,200 - $11,739,502= $1,802,698
Order time cycle: OTC=
Finding optimized order size by using spreadsheet:
Quantity
4000
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
5300
5400
5500
5600
5700
5800
Number
of
orders
Ordering
costs
Discount
45.0
43.9
42.9
41.9
40.9
40.0
39.1
38.3
37.5
36.7
36.0
35.3
34.6
34.0
33.3
32.7
32.1
31.6
31.0
27,000
26,341
25,714
25,116
24,545
24,000
23,478
22,979
22,500
22,041
21,600
21,176
20,769
20,377
20,000
19,636
19,286
18,947
18,621
0
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
Purchases
13,500,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
29
Average
stored
quantity
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
2,550
2,600
2,650
2,700
2,750
2,800
2,850
2,900
Stock
holding
costs
Total
15,000
14,350
14,700
15,050
15,400
15,750
16,100
16,450
16,800
17,150
17,500
17,850
18,200
18,550
18,900
19,250
19,600
19,950
20,300
13,542,000
12,640,691
12,640,414
12,640,166
12,639,945
12,639,750
12,639,578
12,639,429
12,639,300
12,639,191
12,639,100
12,639,026
12,638,969
12,638,927
12,638,900
12,638,886
12,638,886
12,638,897
12,638,921
5900
6000
6100
6200
6300
6400
6500
6600
6700
6800
6900
7000
7100
7200
7300
7400
7500
7600
7700
7800
7900
8000
8001
8002
8100
8200
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
28.6
28.1
27.7
27.3
26.9
26.5
26.1
25.7
25.4
25.0
24.7
24.3
24.0
23.7
23.4
23.1
22.8
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.2
22.0
18,305
18,000
17,705
17,419
17,143
16,875
16,615
16,364
16,119
15,882
15,652
15,429
15,211
15,000
14,795
14,595
14,400
14,211
14,026
13,846
13,671
13,500
13,498
13,497
13,333
13,171
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
1,800,000
1,800,000
1,800,000
1,800,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
12,600,000
11,700,000
11,700,000
11,700,000
11,700,000
2,950
3,000
3,050
3,100
3,150
3,200
3,250
3,300
3,350
3,400
3,450
3,500
3,550
3,600
3,650
3,700
3,750
3,800
3,850
3,900
3,950
4,000
4,001
4,001
4,050
4,100
20,650
21,000
21,350
21,700
22,050
22,400
22,750
23,100
23,450
23,800
24,150
24,500
24,850
25,200
25,550
25,900
26,250
26,600
26,950
27,300
27,650
28,000
26,003
26,007
26,325
26,650
12,638,955
12,639,000
12,639,055
12,639,119
12,639,193
12,639,275
12,639,365
12,639,464
12,639,569
12,639,682
12,639,802
12,639,929
12,640,061
12,640,200
12,640,345
12,640,495
12,640,650
12,640,811
12,640,976
12,641,146
12,641,321
12,641,500
11,739,502
11,739,503
11,739,658
11,739,821
From spreadsheet we also found that the optimized order size is 8001 units because
it has minimum total cost.
Conclusion and recommendation:
As a result, we can see that if we order 4,000 units per order, it will cost us
$13,542,000. This is much higher the minimum total cost ($11,739,502) if we order
8001 units per order. Therefore, I think iViet Technology Company should order
8001 units per order with order cycle time= 13.78 days, because when we chose this
one, the total cost is minimized, so that the company can save money.
30
PC (End Item)
Demand
100
100
100
100
100
100
Production
Hard Disk
Demand
500
Store
On Order
100
Planed
500
Order
500
DVD Drive
Demand
On Order
20
50
70
500
70
70
70
70
70
Planed
430
Order
430
31
600
100 -500
Store
Store
500
Connector
Demand
0 1000
On Order
Store
Planed
1000
Order
1000
Case Assembly
Demand
500
60
60
60
60
60
60
-440
Production
440
Case
Demand
440
Store
60
On Order
Store
Planed
440
Order
440
Power Supply
Demand
440
On Order
Store
Planed
440
Order
Screw
440
32
Demand
200
200
200
200
0 1760
On Order
Store
200
Planed
200
440
2000
Order
2000
Demand
500
50
50
50
50
50
50
-450
Production
450
Main Board
Demand
450
On Order
40
Store
40
40
40
40
40
Store
50
Planed
410
Order
410
Memory
Demand
900
On Order
Store
Planed
900
Order
900
Processor
Demand
33
900
On Order
Store
60
60
60
60
Planed
60
60
840
Order
840
Order size
500
410
900
840
440
440
2000
430
1000
Week
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
Hard disk: iViet Technology Company should be order about hard disk in
week 3
Main Broad: iViet company need to order 410 in week 3
Memory: iViet company need to order 900 in week 3
Processor: iViet company need to order 840 in week 3
Case, Power Supply and Screw: iViet Company need to order 440 Power
Supply, 440 Case and 2000 Screw in week 4
DVD Drive: iViet should be order about DVD drive in week 5 to enough the
number, so the company will have 430 products.
Connector: iViet Technology Company should be order 1000 in week 5
PC: as a result, we can see the stock has already 100PC (end item). The
demand is more 500 PC. The store has shipped 500 PC in week 8.
From material requirements planning, it has help iViet company can lists how much
inventory is already available and determining how much, if any, additional inventory
is needed to fulfill production orders. Furthermore, MRP will help iViet can set up
production times among the separate manufacturing stages and tracks the amount
of material that is demand of customers.
34
5. Project Planning
4d. Construct a network diagram and identify expected completion time a
critical path. Construct a Gantt chart for above project using appropriate
software for decision making purpose for the management.
Network diagram
Duration
3
2
1
1
5
2
2
1
1
1
4
35
The Gantt chart is constructed with reference to the earliest start times for each
activity, the duration of each activity and the number of staff required for each activity
thus:
Acti
vity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
Dura
tion
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2 We
2 ek
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2 We
2 ek
1
3
1
4
1
5
2
3
2
1
1
5
2
2
1
1
1
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2 Wee
2 k
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
Conclusion: from network diagram and Gantt chart, we can know that the time for
the project planning need to complete in 22 weeks.
36
Nachi
Initial Cost
Expected Cash Flow:
End of Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Rate
Initial Cost
Expected Cash Flow
$130,000
$150,000
$160,000
30,000
40,000
45,000
55,000
70,000
50,000
45,000
50,000
40,000
35,000
60,000
70,000
40,000
60,000
55,000
Nachi
Kuka
Motoman
(130,000)
30,000
40,000
45,000
55,000
70,000
22,170
21%
(150,000)
50,000
45,000
50,000
40,000
35,000
652
15%
(160,000)
60,000
70,000
40,000
60,000
55,000
33,055
24%
15%
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
NPV
IRR
PV = S*
Motoman
NPV = PV
Where:
S is investment money
R is interest rate
N is year
Conclusion and recommendation:
As a result, I recommend that iViet Technology Company should invest in Motoman
because Motoman has the highest NPV ($33,055) and IRR 24%, so it will bring the
highest profit for the company when they invest in Motoman rather than Nachi and
KuKa.
37
CONCLUSION
From analysis and interpretation, we can see guess the quantity of sales for 2010 of
iViet Technology Company and help iViet prepare a suitable budget for production.
Management information systems will help iViet can easily share and exchange
information between departments. Inventory control will provide methods for iViet to
find out ideal order. Beside that material requirements planning will help iViet can set
up production times among the separate manufacturing stages and tracks the
amount of material that is demand of customers. iViet company will have more profit
from apply investment appraisal techniques.
Reference
EDEXCEL HNC&HND Business,(2004), Business Decision Making :Course Book,
1st edition BP Professional Education, London.
Management information systems
<http://tutor2u.net/business/ict/intro_information_system_types.htm> [September
18th 2011]
Material Requirements Planning
<http://www.askdeb.com/inventory-management/mrp/> [September 19th 2011]
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