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Floodgatesor
turnstiles?
Post-EUenlargementmigration
flowsto(andfrom)theUK
byNaomiPollard,MariaLatorreandDhananjayanSriskandarajah
April2008
©ippr2008

InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch
Challengingideas– Changingpolicy
2 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Contents
Aboutippr ........................................................................................................................................... 3
Aboutthisreport ................................................................................................................................ 3
Abouttheauthors................................................................................................................................ 3
Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................. 3
Noteonthedata ................................................................................................................................ 4
Acronymsandglossary ....................................................................................................................... 4
Executivesummary ............................................................................................................................. 5
1.Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 7
2.Methodology.................................................................................................................................... 8
3.Background:joiningtheEU.......................................................................................................... 13
4.Thescaleofpost-enlargementmigration..................................................................................... 16
5.Thedemographicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants .............................................................. 24
6.Thespatialprofileofpost-enlargementmigration ....................................................................... 28
7.Thesocio-economicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants.......................................................... 30
8.Migrationpatterns ......................................................................................................................... 39
9.Migrants’motivationsforcomingtotheUK................................................................................ 41
10.Migrants’experiencesoftheUK ................................................................................................. 46
11.Futuremigrationflows................................................................................................................ 48
12.Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 54
References......................................................................................................................................... 57
AppendixA.WRSregistrationsbyregionofemployer2004-2007 ................................................. 61
AppendixB.WRSregistrationsandestimatedcurrentA8stockbylocalauthority ........................ 62
3 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Aboutippr
TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktank,producing
cutting-edgeresearchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democraticandsustainableworld.
Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressivedebateandpolicymakingintheUK.Through
ourindependentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendasforchangeandprovidepractical
solutionstochallengesacrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues.
WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureouroutlookisasbroad-basedaspossible,
whileourinternationalandmigrationteamsandclimatechangeprogrammeextendourpartnerships
andinfluencebeyondtheUK,givingusatrulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch.
ippr,30-32SouthamptonStreet,LondonWC2E7RA.Tel:+44(0)2074706100E:info@ippr.org
www.ippr.org.RegisteredCharityNo.800065

ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinApril2008.©ippr2008

Aboutthisreport
ThisreportupdatesandsupersedestwopreviousipprpublicationsonEUenlargementandmigration:
onepublishedinFebruary2004lookingaheadtomigrationimplicationsofthe2004roundofEU
enlargement(Sriskandarajah2004)andanotheronthemigrationimplicationsofRomanianand
BulgarianaccessionpublishedinApril2006(DrewandSriskandarajah2006).Astimeandresources
allow,wehopetofurtherupdatethisreportinthefuture.

Abouttheauthors
NaomiPollard isaresearchfellowatippr.SheleadstheMigration,EqualitiesandCitizenshipTeam’s
surveyandqualitativeresearch.BeforejoiningipprNaomiworkedatIpsosMORI’sSocialResearch
Institute,whereshemanagedpublicopinionresearchprojectsonbehalfofabroadrangeofpublic
sectorbodies.
MariaLatorre isaresearchassistantatippr.Shehasexperienceinabroadrangeofquantitative
methods,econometricanalysisandusinglargedatabases.MariahasworkedwiththeColombian
governmentandwithresearchcentresfocusedontheeconomicdevelopmentofthirdworldcountries,
particularlyinLatinAmerica.
DhananjayanSriskandarajahisdirectorofresearchstrategyatippr,wherehehasworkedsince2004.
Healsooverseestheinstitute’sworkonasylum,migration,integrationanddiversity.Dannyhas
writtenextensivelyonmigrationissues,particularlypost-enlargementflows,andisaregular
commentatorinthemedia.

Acknowledgements
ThereportincludesdatafromasurveyofmigrantswhohadreturnedfromtheUKtoPolandundertaken
byipprinpartnershipwiththeInstituteofPublicAffairs,Warsaw(www.isp.org.pl/?ln=eng).Wewould
liketothankJustynaFrelakattheInstituteofPublicAffairsandMichalWenzatCBOSfortheirhelp
indesigningandimplementingthesurvey.
Wearealsogratefulfortheadviceandinputofipprcolleaguesinproducingthisreport,particularly
JillRutter,HowardReedandJaideepShah.GeorginaKyriacoucopyeditedandformattedthereport.
Weareparticularlygratefultothesurveyrespondentsandinterviewees,whogavetheirtimetohelp
uswiththisresearch.
Wewouldalsoliketoacknowledgethoseorganisationsthathavesupportedtheresearchthatinforms
ippr’sEconomicsofMigration project,ofwhichthisreportisanoutput:BusinessforNewEurope,
4 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

CommissionforRuralCommunities,CompassGroupPLC,FCOMigrationFund,HomeOffice,and
TradesUnionCongress,aswellastheUKForeignandCommonwealthOffice’sMigrationFund,who
supportedtheipprprojectThe EmigrationofImmigrants.Apollconductedforthatprojectisdrawn
oninthisreport.
Theviewsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsof
theDirectorsorTrusteesofippr,orthoseoftheprojectfunders.

Noteonthedata
MaterialfromtheLabourForceSurveyisCrownCopyrightandhasbeenmadeavailablebyNational
StatisticsthroughtheUKDataArchiveandhasbeenusedwithpermission.NeitherNationalStatistics
northeDataArchivebearsanyresponsibilityfortheanalysisorinterpretationsofthedatareported
here.

Abbreviationsandglossary
A8 TheeightCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesthatjoinedtheEuropean
UnioninMay2004(Poland,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,
Lithuania,SlovakiaandSlovenia)
A2 BulgariaandRomania,whichjoinedtheEuropeanUnioninJanuary2007
EEA EuropeanEconomicArea,afreetradeareamadeupofthe27EUmember
statesplusIceland,LiechtensteinandNorway
EU EuropeanUnion
IPS InternationalPassengerSurvey
LFS LabourForceSurvey
Newaccession TheA8andA2memberstatesoftheEU
states
NI NationalInsurance
NiNo NationalInsuranceNumber
ONS OfficeforNationalStatistics
Post-enlargement MigrantstotheUKfromcountriesaddedtotheEUbyenlargement
migrants
SAWS SeasonalAgriculturalWorkersScheme
WRS WorkerRegistrationScheme
5 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Executivesummary
TomarkthefourthanniversaryoftheenlargementoftheEuropeanUnion(EU)in2004,ipprhas
undertakenamajorstudythataimstoprovideasdefinitiveapictureofpost-enlargementmigration
flowstoandfromtheUKaspossible.Thisreportpresentsfreshevidenceonthescaleandnatureof
migrationfromtheeightnewCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesthatjoinedtheEUin2004(the
so-called‘A8’countries)and,toalesserextent,fromRomaniaandBulgaria,whichjoinedin2007(the
so-called‘A2’).
Thereportisbasedonnewanalysisofarangeofexistingsourcesofdataonmigrationflows(for
example,administrativedataonregisteredworkersandnationalinsurancenumbers,thequarterly
LabourForceSurvey,carriedoutbytheOfficeforNationalStatistics).Italsodrawsontheresultsofa
speciallycommissionedsurvey,believedtobethefirstofitskind,ofPoleswhohaverecentlyreturned
fromtheUKtotheirhomecountry.ThereportalsodrawsonqualitativeinterviewswithPolish
migrantslivingintheUK.

Mainfindings
Ourresearchfindsthatthepatternsofpost-enlargementmigrationareverydifferentfromthoseof
significantwavesofmigrationtoBritaininthepast.Incontrasttopreviousmigrants,itisfinancially
andlogisticallypossibleformigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstatestocometotheUKona
temporaryorseasonalbasis,andtoregularlyvisithomewhilelivinginBritain.Oneintenofthose
returnedPolesinthesurveyhadbeenintheUKforthreemonthsorlongeronmorethanone
occasioninrecentyears.Thefactthatpost-enlargementmigrantsarealreadymovingbackhome
supportsthehypothesisfrequentlymadeinthemigrationliteraturethatlowerbarrierstomobilitylead
tolesspermanentimmigrationinthelongterm.
Someofippr’skeyfindingsinclude:
• WeestimatethatthecurrentpopulationofA8andA2nationalsresidentintheUKis665,000,
anincreaseofaround550,000sinceearly2004.
• Polishnationals,byfarthebiggestnationalitywithinthisgroup,arenowthesinglelargest
foreignnationalgroupresidentintheUK,upfrom13thlargestgroupinearly2004.
• Weestimatethatatotalofaround1millionA8migrantworkershavearrivedintheUKsince
2004,butthataroundhalfofthisgrouphavealreadylefttheUK.
• ThenumberofA8migrantsarrivingintheUKhasstartedtoslowsubstantially,with17percent
fewerWRSregistrationsinthesecondhalfof2007thanduringthesameperiodof2006.We
estimatethatsome30,000fewermigrantsarrivedinthesecondhalfof2007asdidinthe
secondhalfof2006.
• ThevastmajorityofPolishmigrantscometotheUKforeconomicreasons,butleavebecause
theymisshomeorwanttobewiththeirfriendsandfamilyinPoland.
• Post-enlargementmigrationisnotapurelyeconomicphenomenon:manycometotheUKto
learnEnglish,startabusiness,liveinamoresociallyliberalsocietyorsimplytobroadentheir
horizons.
• Three-quartersofallA8andA2nationalsresidentintheUKin2007wereaged16-39yearsold.
• At84percent,theemploymentrateamongpost-enlargementmigrantsisamongthehighestof
allimmigrantgroups,andisninepercentagepointshigherthantheUK-bornaverage.
• Veryfewpost-enlargementmigrantsclaimstatebenefits(only2.4percentofthoseregistering
forNationalInsurancenumbersbetweenMay2004andDecember2007claimedbenefits).
• A8andA2nationalsworkonaveragefourhourslongerperweekthanUK-bornworkers(46
hourscomparedwith42hours).
6 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

• ThenumberofdoctorsfromA8/A2countriesregisteredwiththeGeneralMedicalCouncilhas
increasedby25percentinthelasttwoyears.
• InDecember2003some40,000passengersflewbetweenthreeBritishairportsandWarsawand
KrakowinPoland.ByDecember2007,itwaspossibletoflyfrom22BritishairportstotenPolish
cities,andpassengernumbersbetweenthesedestinationsthatmonthwerealmost385,000.
• Thedistributionofpost-enlargementmigrantsaroundtheUKdifferssignificantlyfromthatof
otherimmigrantgroups.A8/A2nationalsofworkingagearehalfaslikelytoliveinLondonas
otherimmigrantsonaverage,andhavegonetopartsofthecountrythathavepreviously
attractedveryfewmigrants.
• Some10millionpeopleflewbetweentheUKandtheA8/A2countriesin2007,athree-fold
increaseintrafficsincepre-enlargement,reflectingtheincreaseinmigration,tourismandtrade
inbothdirections.
• 70percentofPoleswhohavereturnedfromtheUKhadfoundtheUKbetterorthesameas
theyhadexpected,yettwothirdsofthereturneesthoughtthattheymadetherightdecisionto
returntoPoland.
• Before2004,PolishbeerswerenotwidelyavailableintheUK.Todaysome44millionpintsof
LechandTyskie,Poland’stwoleadingbrands,aresoldannuallyintheUK.
Lessmigration,morereturns
WebelievethatthefollowingfactorswillleadtofewermigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstates
arrivingintheUKandmoreofthosewhoareintheUKreturninghomeinthecomingmonthsand
years:
• Developmentinsendingcountries –Astheeconomicconditionsinthenewmemberstates
improveincomparisontothoseintheUK,economicmotivationsformigratingarelikelyto
weaken.FourintenofthereturnedPolishmigrantswesurveyedthinkthatbetteremployment
prospectsinPolandwouldencouragePoleslivingintheUKtoreturntoPolandforgood.
• Diversiontoalternativedestinations –AsotherEUmemberstatesloosentheirrestrictions
onA8andA2workers,itislikelythatincreasingnumbersofmigrantswillchoosetoliveand
workinthesecountriesratherthantheUK.
• Demographicpatternsinsendingcountries –Asaconsequenceofdecliningbirthratesin
themid1980s,thepooloflikelymigrantstotheUKisgettingsmallerandissettocontinueto
dosointhecomingyears.
• Devaluationofthepoundsterling –Thepoundhasalreadyfallenbyaroundaquarter
relativetothePolishZlotysinceearly2004.Furtherdevaluationwillnarrowthegapbetween
potentialearningsinBritainandPoland,reducingtheincentivefornewmigrantstocometothe
UKandincreasingtheincentiveforthoseintheUKtogohomeorelsewhere.

Questioningkeyassumptions
Muchofthediscussionaboutthescaleofpost-enlargementmigrationassumesthatmostofthose
whohavearrivedarestillhere,thatmorewillcome,andthatmanywillstaypermanently.Thisreport
suggeststhatallthreeoftheseassumptionsarequestionableandthatinsteadarrivalsfromthenew
memberstateswillstarttofallconsistentlywithinthenextfewyears,withthetotalstockremaining
constantorfallingasmigrantsreturnhomeorgoelsewhere.
7 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

1.Introduction
MigrationtotheUKfromthecountriesthathaverecentlyjoinedtheEuropeanUnion(EU)(theso-
calledA8andA2countries)isoneofthemostimportantsocialandeconomicphenomenashaping
theUKtoday.Thismovementofpeoplehasdramaticallychangedthescale,compositionand
characteristicsofimmigrationtotheUK.Yet,despiteitsprominenceinpublicdebates,thereis
relativelylittlecomprehensivedataonthescaleandnature,letaloneimpact,ofthatmigration.Wedo
notyetknowforcertainhowmanyEasternEuropeansareintheUK,whattheydo,howlongtheyare
hereforandwholeaves.

Purposeofthisreport
TomarkthefourthanniversaryoftheEUenlargementin2004,ipprhasundertakenamajorstudy
thataimstofillthisinformationgap.Thisreportisanattempttouseexistingdatatoitsfullestin
ordertopiecetogetherasdefinitiveapictureofpost-enlargementmigrationflowsaspossible.Itdoes
thisbyanalysingexistingsourcesofdataonmigrationflowstoandfromtheUK,drawingonthe
resultsofaspeciallycommissionedsurveyofPolishmigrantswhohavereturnedtotheirhomecountry
fromtheUK,anddrawingonqualitativeinterviewswithPolishmigrantslivingintheUK.Theresearch
takesadvantageofthefactthat,althoughoftenincompleteinitscoverage,thereisnowagrowing
literatureandconsiderabledatasetonvariousaspectsofpost-enlargementmigration.
Thisreportpresents:
• FreshestimatesofthegrossflowsofA8andA2migrantsintoandoutoftheUKoverthelast
fouryears(since2004)
• EstimatesofthecurrentstockofthesemigrantsintheUK
• Analysisofthesocio-economicanddemographiccharacteristicsofA8andA2migrantsinthe
UK
• Projectionsofwhatislikelytohappeninthefuture.
Wepresentthisinformationwithmanycaveatsandqualificationsaboutthequalityandcoverageof
thedata.Seethemethodologysectionbelowforanexplanationofsomeofthecomplexitiesand
limitationsofexistingdata.Giventheselimitations,thisreportisasdefinitiveaswebelieveitcan
reasonablybe;wedonotclaimitisthe definitivepicture.
Wehopethatourfindingswillhelppolicymakers,journalists,andotherresearchersunderstandthe
natureofrecentmigrationflows,bycreatingahandyreferencepointforthoseinterestedinpost-
enlargementmigration.

Whoareweterming‘migrants’?
Weacknowledgethat,formanypeople,themovementofpeoplearoundtheEUisabouttheUnion’s
citizensexercisingtheirrighttomobility,andshouldthereforebetreateddifferentlyfrommigrationof
peoplewhocomefromcountriesoutsidetheEU.Whilethisisanimportantdistinction,forthe
purposesofthisreportwelabelthosewhomovefromthenewmemberstatestotheUKasmigrants.
Asdiscussedinthemethodologysectionbelow,weusevariousdefinitionsofwhatamigrantis,
includingthosebornoutsidetheUK,andthosewhodonotholdBritishnationality,asappropriatein
eachcontext.

Structureofthereport
Inthefollowingsectionweoutlineourmethodology,especiallyintermsofthequantitativedata
analysis.Afterthatcomesabriefbackgroundtotheenlargementprocessandtherightsthatnew
memberstatenationalsenjoyintermsofmobilityandwork.Then,thesubstantialsectionsofthis
reportlookateachmajoraspectofpost-enlargementflows,includingthescaleandnatureofrecent
migration.Thereportconcludesbylookingaheadtofuturemigrationpatternsandthedriverslikelyto
shapethem.
8 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

2.Methodology
Thisresearchisinformedbythreemaincomponents:
• Quantitativeanalysisofexistingsurveyandadministrativedata
• AspeciallycommissionedsurveyofPolishmigrantstotheUKwhohavenowreturnedtoPoland
• QualitativeinterviewswithPolishmigrantslivinginLondon.

Quantitativeanalysis
InordertoestimatethenumberofA8andA2migrantscurrentlylivingintheUK(the‘stock’),we
needtounderstandhowmanypeoplewereinthecountrypriorto1May2004,howmanyhave
arrivedsincethen(the‘inflow’)andhowmanypeoplehaveleft(the‘outflow’).
TheUKdoesnotcurrentlycountindividualsinandoutofitsbordersassomeothercountriesdo.The
availabledataonthenumberofmigrantsfromnewaccessionstateswhowereinthecountrybefore
2004,andthosewhohavearrivedorleftsince,hasseverelimitations.Wethereforedrawonfourmain
sourcesofquantitativedatatobuildascompleteapictureaspossible:
i)Census2001
Censusdatacollectedin2001precedesthisnewwaveofmigration,renderingprojectionsbasedon
thesefiguresoflittlevalue.Itdoeshoweverprovideusefulbackgroundinformationaboutpre-
accessionstocksofA8andA2nationalsintheUK.
ii)InternationalPassengerSurvey
TheOfficeforNationalStatistics’InternationalPassengerSurvey(IPS)collectsannualdatafrom
passengersenteringandleavingtheUK.TheIPSisanexcellentsourceofinformationonaggregate
flowsinandoutoftheUKbutithasseverallimitationsforthepurposesofthisreport:
• ThesurveydefinesamigrantassomeonewhointendstostayintheUKforatleastayear
(overlookingthemajorityofpost-enlargementmigrantswhointendtostayforlessthanayear).
• Therelativelysmallsamplesizeofmigrants(goingonthedefinitionabove)intheIPSlimitsits
usefulnessasatoolforestimatingmigrationtoorfromparticularcountriesorregions.Further,
IPSdataisonlyavailableattheaggregatedlevelofEuropeanUnionA8nationals,withno
breakdownsbycountryavailable.
• InformationonA8nationalsisonlyavailablefrom2004,anddataonA2nationalsisnotyet
availableasadifferentcategorybutinthegroupof‘otherforeignnationals’.
Therefore,broadassessmentsofthestocks,flowsofA8andA2migrantsintheUKcanonlybemade
bytriangulatingadministrativeandsurveydatadrawnfromaccessionmonitoringstatisticscollatedby
theHomeOffice,andtheLabourForceSurvey(LFS).Thesedatasourcesalsoprovideinformation
aboutthedemographic,socio-economicandspatialcharacteristicsofA8andA2migrations.
iii)Accessionmonitoringstatistics
TheHomeOffice,inpartnershipwithanumberofothergovernmentdepartments,publishes
accessionmonitoringstatisticsrelatingtoA8andA2migrantseveryquarter.
ThesereportsprovideinformationaboutthenumberofA8andA2nationalsregisteringtoworkinthe
UK,theirdemographiccharacteristics,economicactivityandgeographicallocation.ForA8nationals
thisinformationisgatheredviatheWorkerRegistrationScheme(WRS)andforA2nationalsby
MigrantWorkerCardsandRegistrationCertificates.Informationaboutbothgroupsofmigrantsisalso
gatheredthroughtheissuingofNationalInsuranceNumbers(NiNo)fortaxandbenefitclaiming
purposes.
Accessionmonitoringstatisticshaveanumberoflimitationsasdatasources:
• Theyfailtocapturepre-accessionflowsandarethereforelimitedintheirusefulnessasa
longitudinaldatasource.
9 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

• Theyrelyonvoluntaryregistrationsandsignificantnumbersofmigrantsareexemptfromhaving
toregisterontheWRSandA2workpermitschemes,mostnotablythosewhoareself-employed
arenotrequiredtobeWRSregistered.
• Theydonotcaptureanydataaboutstudentswhoarenotworkingoraboutdependantsof
workerswhodonothavetheirownNiNo.
iv)TheLabourForceSurvey
Animportantelementofthemethodologyforthisreportreliesonnewandinnovativewaysof
analysingLabourForceSurvey(LFS)data.
TheLFS,carriedoutbytheOfficeforNationalStatistics,isacomprehensivequarterlysurveyof
householdsthataimstoprovideinformationonthelabourmarket.Whileitdoesnotcollectdataon
immigrationstatus,itdoesincludequestionsoncountryofbirthandnationality.TheLFSprovides
dataonaconsistentsetofvariablesoverlongtimeframesandishighlyregardedbecauseituses
internationallyagreedconceptsanddefinitions.
Weneedtobearinmind,though,thatwhereastheCensusisacountofthetotalpopulation,theLFS
isbasedonpopulationsamples,andisthereforesubjecttosamplingerror.Thestandarderrorforan
estimateof500,000people,forinstance,is13,800andthe95percentconfidenceintervalis+/-
27,100(seeOfficeforNationalStatistics2003),meaningthatwecanbe95percentsurethatthe
actualfigureiswithin27,100of500,000.Theseerrorsbecomeproportionallylargerthesmallerthe
estimate.Furthermore,therearealsolikelytobenon-samplingerrors,causedbyfactorssuchas
potentialrespondents’unwillingnesstotakepartinthesurveyorrespondentsansweringquestions
inaccurately.Responseratestendtobelowerforminoritygroupsandinthecaseofmigrantworkers
therecanbeunder-reportingbecausenon-privatecommunalaccommodation,inwhichmigrant
workershaveahighpropensitytolive,isnotcoveredbythesurvey.
InordertoanalysespecificcharacteristicsofA8andA2nationalsforwhichthesamplesizeistoo
smalltobestatisticallyrobust,wehaveannuallyappendedfourquartersofLFSdatatogether.This
increasesthetotalsamplesizeandthereforeallowsformoredetailedanalysisofsocio-economic
characteristicsthanispossibleusingasinglequarterofdata,andensuresthattheresultsare
representative.SinceeachhouseholdintheLFSissurveyedinfivesuccessivequarters,wehaveused
thethiswvvariabletoensurethateachhouseholdisonlyincludedonceintheappendeddataset.
Whenselectingwaves,thereshouldbeapreferenceforwaves1and5,sincethesearethewavesin
whichdataonincomeiscollected.
TheselectionprocesswehaveusedforeveryyearisrepresentedinFigure1.Representationsof
individualrespondentsarecolour-codedinthediagram.Forexample,arespondentinwave1in2007
quarter(Q)1isshadedgrey.Hisorherprogressthroughthesurveywavescanbetracedbyfollowing
thegreyshadingdiagonallythroughtowave4in2007Q4,onequarterbeforehisorherparticipation
comestoanend.Theobservationsusedintheanalysisareasterisked,andrepresentthemaximum
numberofwavesthatcanbeincludedwithoutanyonerespondentbeingrepresentedmorethanonce
inthesample.

Figure1.Labour
ForceSurveywave 2007
selection Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1* 1* 1* 1*

2 2 2 2
Survey wave

3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4

5* 5* 5* 5* *Includedinthesample
10 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Itisimportanttobearinmindthatthenumbersobtainedfromtheappendeddataarenotestimates
ofthecurrentpopulationintheUK.ThesampleofeachquarteroftheLFSisdesignedtoprovide
estimatesoftheUKpopulationaswellastheireconomicandsociodemographiccharacteristics.
However,sinceintheappendeddatasomeofthewavesaredroppedofftoavoiddoublecounting,
theresultingsamplerepresentsagroupofobservationsthatcannotbecomparedwiththequarterly
samplesoftheLFS.Forthisreason,thefiguresbasedonaggregateddataareanalysedinproportions
ratherthannumbers.Thesefiguresallowustoprovidedistributionswithinagroupandnottotal
numbers,takingintoaccountthedifferencesbetweensamples.
SincetheLFSisasample-basedsurveyratherthanapopulationcensus,datafromitshouldbe
treatedasestimatessubjecttotheerrorsoutlinedabove.WehaveroundedthedataintheLFS-based
tablesinthisreport,usuallytothenearestonepercentorthousand,butthefiguresremainestimates
ratherthandefinitive.Ifitwerepossibletocollectactualdataontheentirepopulation,ratherthanvia
asample,therankingsinsomeofthetables,particularlythosewhereseveralgroupshaveveryclose
values,maydiffersomewhatfromthosepresentedhere.

SurveyofreturnedPolishmigrants
AspartofthisresearchipprandtheInstituteforPublicAffairs,WarsawcommissionedthePolish
researchagencyMillwardBrownSMG/KRCtoundertakeasurveyofPoleslivinginPolandwhohad
livedintheUKforatleastthreemonthssince1998.Interviewersconducted370face-to-face
interviewsbetween28Februaryand12March2008withmigrantswhohadreturnedtotheirhome
country.
Asnowballquotasamplingmethodwasusedwherebyinterviewerswereaskedtofindinterviewees
fittingallthespecifiedquotaswithinthegeographicalareaoftheirsamplepoint.Quotaswereplaced
onrespondents’age,gender,levelofqualificationandwhentheylastlivedintheUK.Quotaswere
basedontheprofile,asestablishedbypreviousresearchbyCBOS(CentrumBadaniaOpiniiSpołecznej
orPublicOpinionResearchCentre),ofmigrantswhohavereturnedtoPolandfromworkingintheEU
since1998.

Table1.Quotasandachievedinterviews
Male Female
Age18-34 Age35+ Age18-34 Age35+
Vocationaleducation Quota 28 28 14 14
Achieved 28 26 15 15
Secondaryeducation Quota 56 56 37 37
Achieved 56 54 36 39
Highereducation Quota 28 28 23 23
Achieved 23 30 23 26

ThesetandachievedquotasareoutlinedinTable1below.
Interviewstookplacein23locationsacrossPoland,asshowninTable2(nextpage).
AlthoughthesurveysampledreturnedmigrantstoPolandonly,wearguethattheresultscanbe
treatedasindicativeofthebehavioursandattitudesofA8migrantsasagroup.Polesarebyfarthe
largestnationalgroupofpost-enlargementmigrants,makingup66percentofthosewhohave
registeredontheWRSsinceMay2004,andtheyarenotsubstantiallydifferentfromotherA8
migrantsintermsofdemographicorsocio-economicprofile.
WehaveusedthesurveyfindingstoestimatethelikelyextenttowhichWRSregistrations
underestimatethenumberofA8migrantswhohavecometotheUK,andbasedoncomparisonsof
thisfigurewithLFSdata,thelikelynumberofA8migrantswhohavearrivedinandleftthecountry
sinceMay2004(seesection4below).
11 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Table2.Geographicalbreakdownofinterviews
Area Numberofinterviewsachieved
Białystok 16
Bydgoszcz 13
Częstochowa 13
Gdańsk 20
Katowice 18
Kalisz 18
Koszalin 18
Lublin 16
Łódź 18
Olsztyn 14
Poznań 17
Radom 15
Dębica/Tarnów 10
Siedlce 17
Włocławek 10
GorzówWielkopolski 16
Warszawa 24
Opole 22
Bolków/JeleniaGóra 14
Wrocław 15
Szczecin 8
Kraków 21
Piła/Toruń 18
Total 371

Theseestimationsareballparkfigures,andarebasedonthefollowingassumptions:
•ThattheprofileandmigratorybehaviourofA8migrantsasawholeisnotsignificantlydifferent
fromthatofPolishmigrants
•ThattheproportionofPolishmigrantsnotregisteredontheWRSissimilartotheproportionof
A8migrantsnotregisteredontheWRS
•ThatalthoughtheLFShasanumberoflimitationsasatoolforestimatingnumbersofmigrants
intheUK,thefiguresdiscussedaresufficientlylargetobeusedasthebasisofballpark
estimations.
Allsurveyfindingsaregiventothenearestpercentagepointandwherethesamplesizeislessthan
50,thesamplesize(n)isalsogiven.

Qualitativemethodology
Weconductedtenin-depthinterviewsofanhourinlengthwithPolishmigrantslivinginLondon,
manyofwhomhadarrivedsince2004.Thefindingsoftheseinterviewsarereferredtothroughoutthe
report.
12 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Definitions
Ingeneral,werefertomigrantsasthosewhohavespentaminimumofthreemonthslivingintheUK.
However,asoutlinedabove,theIPSusesadifferentdefinition,definingmigrantsasthosewhointend
toliveintheUKforatleastayear.OuranalysisofLFSdataisbasedonnationalsofthenewmember
states,unlessstatedthatitisbasedonrespondentsborninthosecountries(whomaynowhold
Britishcitizenship).ItshouldbenotedthatLFSdoesnotaccountfordualnationality,anduses
whicheversinglenationalitytherespondentgives.
WerefertomigrantswhohaveleftPoland,theCzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,
SlovakiaandSloveniasince1May2004as‘A8migrants’,andtothosewhohaveleftRomaniaand
Bulgariasince1January2007as‘A2migrants’.WerefertoA8andA2migrantscollectivelyas‘post-
enlargementmigrants’or‘post-accessionmigrants’or‘migrantsfromthenewEUmemberstates’.
13 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

3.Background:joiningtheEU
FollowingthedeclarationoftheEuropeanCouncilinCopenhagen(1993)whichallowedEuropean
statestoapplyforEUmembership,tenformerlycommunistcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope–
Bulgaria,theCzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,Romania,Slovakiaand
Slovenia,aswellastheMediterraneanislandsofCyprusandMalta,didsoin1995.TheEuropean
Councilstarteditsnegotiationsandassessmentswiththisgroupin1999.Inordertoqualifyfor
membership,EUapplicantcountriesmustmeetaseriesofpoliticalandsocio-economiccriteria,the
so-calledCopenhagenCriteria.
The‘A8countries’oftheCzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,Slovakia,
Slovenia,aswellasCyprusandMalta,metthecriteriaintimetojointheEUon1May2004.Bulgaria
andRomaniadidnotqualifyformembershipintimeforthe2004accession,butmettheCopenhagen
Criteriainordertobecomethe‘A2countries’,joiningtheEUon1January2007.

Freemovement
Accessionnationalshavethesamerightsoffreemovementbetweencountriesasnationalsofthepre-
enlargementEU15.EUnationalscanenterothermemberstateswithoutavisaforaperiodofupto
sixmonthsonproductionofvalididentificationandcanresideinanothermemberstateformorethan
sixmonthsiftheyareatleastoneofthefollowing:
• Employed
• Self-employed
• Inpossessionofsufficientresourcesandhealthinsurancetoensurethattheydonotseekstate
orsocialbenefits
• Astudent
• Afamilymember(includingnon-EUcitizenspouses)ofanEUcitizenwhofallsintooneofthe
abovecategories.
Leadinguptothe2004enlargement,therewaswidespreadconcernaroundtheimpactsfrom
migrationoftheextensionofEUmembershiptoanunprecedentedtennewstatesatonce.Fearsofa
massexodusofaccessionnationalsintothelabourmarketsofexistingEUmemberscompetingfor
jobs,deflatingwagesanddisruptingsocialcohesionwerewhippedupandintensifiedbysometimes
vitriolicpresscoverage.InresponsetothisconcerntheTreatyofAccessionallowedfortheexisting
EU15toimposetransitionalrestrictionsonthefreemovementofworkersfromallthenewmember
stateswiththeexceptionofCyprusandMaltaforamaximumofsevenyears(EuropeanCommission
2003).Inotherwords,whilenewmemberstatenationalswerefreetotraveltoexistingmemberstates
tobeself-employedorstudyandsoforth,theyfacedpotentialrestrictionstotheirabilitytoworkas
employees.ThesameapproachwasadoptedinrelationtoRomaniaandBulgaria’saccessionin2007.
ForbothA8andA2migrants,thetransitionalperiodlastsforsevenyearsandisdividedintothree
phasesaccordingtoa‘2+3+2’formula.Theprovisionsoutlinethatforthefirsttwoyearsfollowing
accessionaccesstothelabourmarketsofexistingEUmemberstatesdependsonthenationallawand
policyofthosememberstates.Nationalmeasuresmaybeextendedforafurtherperiodofthreeyears.
Afterthat,amemberstatethatappliednationalmeasurescanbeauthorisedtocontinuetoapply
suchnationalmeasuresforafurthertwoyearsbutonlyifitexperiencesseriousdisturbancesinits
labourmarket.Theapproachesadoptedbymemberstatesinrelationtothemovementofworkers
fromtheA8andA2countriesaresummarisedinTable3(nextpage).

TheWorkerRegistrationScheme
InordertocalmpublicworriesintherunuptoMay2004aroundanticipatedmigrationfromA8
countries,theUKGovernmentinsertedalast-minuteclausethatallowedfreemovementofworkers
providedthataccessionnationalshadregisteredwiththeWorkerRegistrationScheme(WRS).
ApplicantsarerequiredtoregisterontheschemeassoonastheystartworkingintheUK.Thecostof
14 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Table3.RestrictionsonA8andA2migrantworkers,2004-2008
Levelofrestriction FirstPhaseA8,1May SecondPhaseA8,1May FirstPhaseA2,1January
2004–30April2006 2006–30April2009 2007–31December2008
Openaccesstolabour UK,IrelandandSweden Finland,Greece,Portugal, CzechRepublic,Cyprus,Estonia,
market Luxembourg,Netherlands Finland,Latvia,Lithuania,
andSpainhavealllifted Poland,Slovenia,Slovakia,
theirrestrictionsduringthe Sweden
secondphase.
Workpermitsystem Austria,Belgium,Denmark, Austria,Belgium,France, Austria,Belgium,Denmark,
FinlandFrance,Germany, Denmark,Germany,Italy FinlandFrance,Germany,
Greece,Italy,Luxembourg, Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,
Netherlands,Portugal,Spain Luxembourg,Malta,Netherlands,
Portugal,Spain,UK
Reducedrestrictionsfor Belgium,France,Denmark,
someprofessions Germany
Additionalrestrictions Austria,Germany
forsomeprofessions
Source:EuropeanCommission’stransitionalprovisionswebsite

registrationwas£50initiallyandiscurrently£90.Oncetheyhavecompleted12months’workwithno
morethan30days’break,workersnolongerneedtoregisterontheWorkerRegistrationScheme.
Applicantsrequireanewregistrationcertificateforeachnewjob.
Workersarenotrequiredtoregisterifthey:
• areself-employed
• havebeenworkinglegallyintheUKfor12monthswithoutabreakinemployment
• areprovidingservicesintheUKonbehalfofanemployerwhoisnotestablishedinthiscountry
• havedualcitizenshipoftheUK,anothercountrywithintheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA),or
Switzerland, or
• arethefamilymemberofaSwissorEEAcitizen(exceptA8andA2nationals)andthatpersonis
working,astudent,retiredorself-sufficientintheUnitedKingdom.(HomeOfficeUKBorder
Agency2008)
Theserestrictionswillremaininplaceuntilatleast30April2009.

A2migrantworkersintheUK
InOctober2006theGovernmentannouncedthatgradualaccesstotheUKlabourmarketwouldbe
giventoRomanianandBulgariannationals.Skilledworkerscontinuetohaveaccesstothelabour
marketviatheHighlySkilledMigrantProgramme.Accessforlow-skilledworkersisquotalimitedand
restrictedtoexistingschemes(SeasonalAgriculturalWorkersScheme[SAWS]andSectorsBased
Scheme)fortheagriculturalandfoodprocessingsectors.Since1January2008participationinthese
low-skillschemeshavebeenrestrictedtoBulgarianandRomaniannationalsonly.
Low-skilledmigrantsarerequiredtoapplyforanAccessionWorkerCard,unlesstheyhaveaworkcard
issuedbytheSeasonalAgriculturalWorkersSchemeorwereaworkpermitholderbefore1January
2007.OncemigrantshavebeenworkinglegallyasanemployeeintheUKfor12monthswithouta
breaktheyhavefullrightsoffreemovementandnolongerneedpermissiontotakework.
Somehighlyskilledmigrantsarerequiredtoapplyforaregistrationcertificate,whichprovestheirright
toworkintheUK.Otherhigh-skilledworkersareexemptfromthisrequirement,butmaychooseto
seekaregistrationcertificate,ascanmigrantswhoareself-employed.
15 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

On30October2007theGovernmentannouncedthatitwouldmaintaintheserestrictionsonlabour
marketaccessuntilatleasttheendof2008(seeHomeOffice’sBorderandImmigrationAgency
website).

Welfareentitlements
Thefreemovementofworkersisaseparateissuetotheaccessrightsofmigrantstoentitlementsfrom
theUKgovernment.Membersofbothnewandoldmemberstatesareallsubjecttothesame
stringentrequirementswhenitcomestoaccessingentitlementsfromtheUKgovernment,although
thelevelofprovisiondoesvarybetweenvisitorandmigrantworker.Indeed,therulesgoverningthe
welfareentitlementsofA8andA2nationalsintheUKarebroadlythesameasthoseofBritish
nationalswholiveorworkinotherEUmemberstates.
Untiltheyhavebeenincontinuousemployment(withbreaksoflessthan30days)for12months,A8
andA2workersareonlylegallyentitledtoresideintheUKiftheymeettheconditionsoutlined
above.A8andA2migrantshaveaccesstochildbenefitsandtaxcreditsassoonastheystartworking
(althoughtheylosethisentitlementiftheybecomeunemployedbeforeworkingfor12months)and
canclaimincome-relatedbenefitsafterhavingbeeninemploymentforoneyear.
16 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

4.Thescaleofpost-enlargementmigration
In2003,therewereanestimated850,000accessionstatenationalsresidingwithintheEU15countries
(excludingCyprusandMalta,butincludingRomaniaandBulgaria)(Brückeretal 2003).Thisaccounted
for0.2percentoftheEU15populationandjustoveronepercentofthetotalpopulationofthe
accessioncountries.Ofthose850,000,onlyaboutfivepercent,around50,000people,wereestimated
toberesidingintheUK.The2001UKCensusfoundtherewere240,000peopleborninEastern
Europe(includingtheformerUSSR)livinginEnglandandWales,ofwhom58,000wereborninPoland.1
Thiscomparesto1.3millionbornoutsidetheUKbutwithinexistingEUmemberstates.
Ofthenewaccessioncountries,Polandhadthemostsignificantlevelofpre-2004migrationtotheUK,
withthemigrationroutehavingbeenentrenchedimmediatelyaftertheSecondWorldWar.ManyPoles
cametotheUKtosetupbusinessesfollowingtheratificationin1994oftheEuropeAgreement,which
allowedcandidatecountrynationalstobeself-employedinexistingEUcountries.Itisestimatedthat
thelevelofundocumentedmigrationamongPolestotheUKpriorto2004wassubstantial(Eadeetal
2006b),indicatingthatthenumberofPoles(andtoalesserextentotheraccessionstatenationals)
countedbythe2001Censuswaslikelytobeasignificantunderestimation.
Pre-enlargementmigrationforecasts
ThemostwidelycitedpredictionofwhatwouldhappenafterenlargementfoundthatnetinflowsofA8
nationalswouldbebetween5,000and13,000annuallyupuntil2010(Dustmannetal 2003).The
updatetotheEuropeanCommission’s2000reportestimatedslightlylargernetinflowstotheUK,
peakingat17,000twoyearsafterfreemovementofworkersispermitted,beforeslowingdown.The
reportalsoconcludedthatstockswouldrisefromjustunder60,000in2004,reachingjustunder
180,000in2030(Brückeretal 2003).
TheseestimationsassumedlargenumbersheadingforGermanyaspertraditionalmigrationpatterns,
butbothstudiesarguedthatevenifGermanydidplacerestrictionsonentry,anydiversiontotheUK
wouldbesmall.ThetemporarynatureofA8migration,asdemonstratedbyanearlierInternational
OrganisationofMigrationsurvey(IOM1998),wouldencouragemostpotentialmigrantstowaituntil
restrictionswerelifted.
ThatmanymoreA8nationalsregisteredtoworkintheUKthanthepredictednet inflowscanbe
explainedbythefollowingreasons:
• Theforecastedfiguresmentionedabovedidnottakeintoaccounttheunforeseenrestrictions
imposedbyfourfifthsofEUmembers.Evenwithoutthewidespreadrestrictions,thepredictions
underestimatedthe‘diversion’effectthatotherEUmemberstates’impositionoflabourmarket
restrictionswouldhave.Thepost-enlargementdiversionhasbeensogreatthatA8migrationto
Germany,traditionallythemostpopulardestinationformanyA8nationals,hasreacheditslowest
levelsince1991(Traser2005).
• Thepredictionswerebasedonpermanent,ratherthantemporarymigrationflows.Asweoutline
below,ahighproportionofA8nationalshavecometotheUKforashortperiodoftimebefore
returningtoEasternEurope.
• Around30-40percentofthosewhoregisteredwereworkingintheUKpriortoaccession,rather
thanenteringas‘new’migrants.2 Aproportionofthesewouldhavebeenworkinglegallyorhave
beenresidentasstudents,butmanywouldhavebeenirregular.
• Aparticularlybuoyanteconomy,lowunemploymentratesandhighlabourdemandproduceda
particularlystrongpullfactortotheUK.

1.NationalStatistics,‘TableS104Ethnicgroupbyreligion’:
www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D7547.xls
2.Between1Mayand31December2004,theAccessionMonitoringReport(HomeOfficeetal 2005a)
showsthat24percentstatedtheyhadbeenintheUKpriortoaccession,and16percentdidnotstate
theirtimeofarrival(37percentintotal).ByJune2005,thesefigureshadfallento15percentand16
percentrespectively(31percentintotal)(HomeOfficeetal 2005b).
17 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Inthewakeofthesignificantunderestimationofthelikelynumberofpost-A8-accessionmigrantsto
theUK,theGovernmentwasreluctanttomakepredictionsaboutthenumberofRomanianand
BulgariannationalswhowerelikelytocometotheUK.However,intheperiodbeforethe
announcementinOctober2006ofrestrictionsonRomanianandBulgarianworkerscomingtotheUK,
abroadrangeofpredictionswasmadeaboutthelikelyflowsifthesamerestrictionswereappliedto
BulgariaandRomaniaastotheA8countries.
ipprpredictedthattheinflowsofRomanianandBulgarianmigrantstotheUKwouldbe40percentof
A8inflows,assumingthatA2nationalswereallowedtomigrateunderthesameconditionsasA8
nationals.Weestimatedthat50,000Romaniansand18,000Bulgariansapplicantscouldbeapprovedto
workintheUKduringthefirstyearofaccession,andthat18percentoftheseapplicantswouldhave
beenintheUKpriortoRomaniaandBulgariajoiningtheEU(DrewandSriskandarajah2006).
Thesepredictionswerealsobasedontheobservationsthat,incontrasttocountrieslikePolandthat
hadlong-establishedmigratorylinkswiththeUK,thereweresmallexistingpopulationsofBulgarians
andRomaniansintheUK.(The2001Censusrecordedaround7,500Romaniansand5,350Bulgarians
legallyresidinginUK,comparedwitharound60,000Poles.)Also,RomanianisaRomancelanguage,
makingcountriesinSouthernEuropesuchasItaly,FranceandSpainwhoselanguagesarealsofrom
thatfamilymoreattractivethantheUKforlargenumbersofRomanianmigrants(seealsoDuvell
2007).
TheupperendofthescaleofpredictionscamefromorganisationssuchasthethinktankOpen
Europe,whichsuggestedthatbasedonmakingcomparisonswiththeeconomiccharacteristicsofthe
A8countries,theUKcouldexpect450,000Romanianmigrantsand170,000Bulgarianmigrantsinthe
firsttwoyearsaftertheA2accession(OpenEurope2007).
Intheevent,asdiscussedbelow,theUKGovernment’sdecisiontoestablishaworkpermitsystemfor
BulgarianandRomanianmigrantsmeantthattheactualnumberofregistrationsinthefirstyearwas
muchsmallerthanthesepredictions.

A8arrivalssinceMay2004
TheInternationalPassengerSurveycarriedoutbytheOfficeforNationalStatisticsestimatesthat
53,000migrantsfromtheA8countriesarrivedintheUKin2004withtheintentionofstayingforat

Figure2.ImmigrationtoandfromtheUKbycountryofcitizenship,1991-2006
225
Thousands

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

EU 15 EU A8* Commonwealth Old Commonwealth New Other foreign

*EU A8 are classified as ‘Other foreign’ before 2004

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics2006a
18 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure3.WorkerRegistrationSchemeregistrations,May2004-December2007
70

60

50
Thousands

40

30

20

10

0
Q2-2004 Q3-2004 Q4-2004 Q1-2005 Q2-2005 Q3-2005 Q4-2005 Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-2006 Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

Year/quarter

Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a

leastayear.Thisisthestrictestoftheusualdefinitionsofamigrantbecauseitrequiressomeoneto
knowwhentheyarriveintheUKthattheyintendtostayformorethanayear.Giventhenatureof
migratoryflowsfromnewEUmemberstates,relativelyfewmigrantsfallintothiscategory
comparedwithmigrantsfromoutsidetheEUwhoaremorelikelytoembarkonlong-term
migration.
Nevertheless,evenbythisstrictdefinition,therewasanincreaseinarrivalsfromtheA8in2005to
76,000andto92,000in2006.Between2004and2006,A8migrantswentfrommakingup11per
centofallimmigrantstotheUKto18percent,andincreasedasaproportionofEUcitizens
arrivingfrom41percentto55percent.Figuresarenotyetavailablefor2007.
Anothermeasureofgrossarrivals,likelytogiveabetterindicationofthescaleofA8migration,
comesfromtheWorkerRegistrationScheme(seeFigure3).Thisindicatesthatintotal796,000
initialapplicationsweremadetoregisterontheWRS,ofwhich766,000initialapplicationswere
approvedbetweenApril2004andDecember2007.
However,thosewhoarerequiredtoregistermaynotalwaysdosoandsomeworkersareexempt
fromregisteringontheWRS,mostnotablythosewhoareself-employed(seeBackgroundsection
above).AccordingtotheLFS,theproportionofA8migrantswhoareself-employedstandsat14
percent,andothersurveyshaveestimatedthatthenumberofA8workersnotregisteredonthe
schemestandsatbetweenaroundaquarterandathird(FifeResearchCoordinationGroup2008,
UniversityofSurrey2006).
OursurveysuggeststhatmorethanfourintenPoles(42percent)whohaveworkedintheUK
since2004andnowreturnedtoPolandwerenot registeredontheWorkerRegistrationScheme.It
maybethatthosewhohavereturnedtoPolandwerelesslikelytoberegisteredonthescheme
thanotherswhohaveremainedintheUK.Ontheotherhand,themigrantswhohadreturnedto
Polandweinterviewedmayprovideamoreaccuratepictureofthescaleofnon-registrationthan
migrantsinterviewedforsurveysintheUK,whomaybemorecautiousaboutadmittingtheyare
notregisteredonthescheme.
Whilethereisuncertaintyabouttheexactscaleofnon-registrationamongA8migrants,wehave
takenaccountoftheconsiderationsabovetoscaleupthegrossnumberofarrivalsbetweenMay2004
19 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

andDecember2007.Ourcalculationsusethemid-point3ofourandtheothersurveys’estimatesof
theproportionofmigrantworkerswhoarenotWRSregistered(33percent)toproduceafigurefor
estimatedgrossarrivals.Usingthismethod,weestimatethatthetotalnumberofmigrantworkers
fromA8countrieswhohavearrivedsince2004standsatjustoveronemillion(1,018,400)4.
ThenumberofNationalInsurancenumbers(NiNos)issuedprovidesanotherindicationofhowmany
migrantshavearrivedintheUKsince2004beyondthosewhoarerequiredtoregisterontheWRS.
TheGovernmentestimatesthat807,115NiNoswereissuedtoA8migrantsbetweenMay2004and
December2007foremployment,benefitandtaxcreditpurposes(HomeOfficeetal2008a).However,
itislikelythatthesefiguresalsounder-representthenumberofpeopleworking,withonestudy
estimatingthat13percentofA8workersdonothaveaNiNo(FifeResearchCoordinationGroup
2008).Basedonthisestimate,912,000A8workerswouldhaveregisteredforaNiNoduringthis
period.
ItisworthnotingthatevidencefromIreland,oneoftheothercountriesthathastakenaliberal
approachtothemovementofA8workers,hasissuedatotalof467,267PersonalPublicService
Numbers(similartoUKNiNosbutthoughttohavemoreuniversalcoverage)toA8/A2nationals
between1May2004andtheendofMarch2008(DSFA2008).AlmostasmanyPoleshavebeen
issuedwiththesenumbersasIrishnationalsinthelastfewyears.
BothWRSregistrationsandNiNoallocationsindicatethatthenumberofA8migrantsarrivinginthe
UKpeakedinthelastquarterof2006,whentherewere63,350approvedWRSregistrationsand
76,460NiNosallocated.Therewereaquarter(18,789)fewerNiNosallocatedandaquarter(16,020)
fewerWRSregistrationsapprovedinthelastquarterof2007thaninthelastquarterof2006.

A8departuressinceMay2004
AccordingtotheInternationalPassengerSurvey(IPS),just40,000A8migrantspermanentlyleftthe
UKbetween2004and2006.Thereasonsforthissignificantunderestimationofthelikelynumbersof
A8migrantswhohaveleftareoutlinedinthesectiononmethodology.However,theIPSrecordsthat
between2004and2006,A8migrantswentfromconstitutingtwopercentofallpermanentnon-UK
emigrantsto11percentandthepercentageofEUnationalsleavingtheUKpermanentlywhocame
fromA8countriesrosefromsevenpercentin2004to33percentin2006.Althoughthese
percentagesmaynotbecompletelyaccurate,theyprovideanindicationthatthenumberofA8
migrantsleavingtheUK,aswellasarrivinginthecountryhassignificantlyincreasedsincethe
enlargementoftheEUin2004.
AbetterestimationofthenumberofA8migrantswhohaveleftthecountrycanbeobtainedby
comparingestimatedinflowfigureswithstockfigures.Thismethodologybroadlysuggeststhataround
halfofA8migrantswhohavearrivedsinceMay2004hadlefttheUKbytheendofDecember2007.
Forexample,Table4(nextpage)showsthatcomparingtheyearofarrivalofLFSrespondentsresident
intheUKinQuarter42007withgrossarrivalsofworkingmigrantsindicatesthataroundhalfofthose
whoarrivedin2004,2005and2006hadlefttheUKbytheendof2007.

3.ThelowestestimatebasedonsurveydataisthatoftheFifeResearchCoordinationGroup,which
foundthat23percentofA8migrantsinFifewerenotregisteredontheWRS.Oursurveyfoundthe
highestestimateofthescaleofunderestimationwehaveseen,suggestingthat42percentofworkersare
notregistered.
4.Thisfigureexcludesfull-timestudentswhoarenotregisteredontheWRS.DatafromtheHigher
EducationStatisticsAgency(HESA)indicatesthatthenumberofA8nationalsinfull-timeeducationis
notsufficientlylargetosubstantiallyaffectthesecalculations.Thefigurealsoexcludeschildrenof
migrantworkers,andadultdependantswhoarenotworking.47,170childrenwereregisteredbyWRS
workersbetweenMay2004andDecember2007.37,855adultdependantswerealsoregisteredbyWRS
workersduringthisperiod.However,itislikelythatmanyoftheseadultdependantswerealsoworking
andwerethemselvesregisteredonWRS.
20 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Table4.A8nationalsofworkingagebyyearofarrivalinQ42007,comparedwithgrossarrivals
Year WRSregistrations Totalannualgross A8nationalsbyyear Proportionofgrossarrivals
arrivalsofA8workers* ofarrival,Q42007** estimatedtohavelefttheUK
byQ42007
2004 125,880 167,420 83,000 51%
2005 204,970 272,610 141,000 49%
2006 227,875 303,074 131,000 57%
Notes:LFSfiguresroundedtothenearestthousand.
*ThisisourestimateofthetotalnumberofA8nationalsarrivingintheUK,includingestimatesofthosenotregistered
(basedonanon-registrationfigureof33%,themiddleoftherangeofnon-registrationestimates)
**A8nationalsofworkingageexcludingfulltimestudents.
Source:LFS,Q42007andHomeofficeetal 2008a

AsFigure4illustrates,thereisasignificantdifferencebetweenthecumulativetotalofWRSandNiNo
registrationsbyA8migrantsbetweenMay2004andDecember2007andtheincreaseinstock,as
recordedbytheLFSduringthisperiod.ThediscrepancybetweenthenumberofnewWRS
registrationsandtheincreaseintheLFSstockofA8nationalsofworkingageduringthisperiodis
289,000,anditislikelythatasignificantproportionofthisfigurehasreturnedhomeorgone
elsewhere.However,asdiscussedabove,WRSfiguresunderestimatethenumbersofA8migrantswho
havearrived.Again,usingthemidpointestimateof33percentnotregisteredontheWRS,around
541,000A8migrantworkersmayhaveleftthecountrybetweenMay2004andDecember2007,
whichisjustoverhalfofthoseweestimatetohavearrived.
OursurveydataindicatesthatthepaceofreturntoPolandamongmigrantsintheUKhas
acceleratedduring2007and2008,indicatingthatanecdotalevidencethatPolesarestartingto
returningreaternumberspaintsanaccuratepicture.

Figure4.StockandcumulativefiguresofA8nationalsofworkingageintheUK,March2004-December2007

1,200
Thousands

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4-
2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007
WRS cumulative total LFS population of working age stock
NiNo registrations cumulative total Projected cumulative total arrivals

Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a,LFSandipprcalculations
21 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

A2arrivalssinceJanuary2007
AccordingtotheAccessionMonitoringStatistics,2,185applicationsforAccessionWorkerCardsby
Bulgariannationalsandby1,430Romaniannationalswereapprovedin2007.Duringthesameperiod,
18,995Romaniansand8,410Bulgarianswereissuedwithregistrationcertificates,and29,083
NationalInsurancenumberswereissuedtoRomanianandBulgariannationals(HomeOfficeetal
2007a-c,2008b).DataindicatingthenumberofA2migrantswhohavelefttheUKsinceJanuary
2007arenotyetavailable.

CurrentpopulationofA8andA2migrantsintheUK
Webelievethatdespiteitslimitationsasatoolforestimatingthenumberofmigrantsinthecountry,
theLFSisthemostaccuratedatasourceavailableasanestimateofthenumberofpost-enlargement
migrantscurrentlyintheUK.Accordingtothesurvey,therewere665,000nationalsofA8andA2
countrieslivingintheUKinthelastquarterof2007.Thisisanincreaseof548,000sincethefirst
quarterof2004,justpriortotheA8accession.
Thisincreasecanalsobeseeninthetwolargestcountry-of-origingroupsamongA8andA2
population,PolesandLithuanians,theonlytwogroupswhicharesufficientlylargetoanalyse
individuallyfromthelatestLFSfigures.Table5showsthatthenumbersofPolish-bornandPolish
nationalpeopleresidentintheUKhasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears.Polishnationalshave
gonefrombeingthe13thbiggestgroupofimmigrantsintheUKbeforePolandjoinedtheEUto
beingthesinglebiggestimmigrantgroupattheendof2007.Thisrisecanalsobeseeninthosewho
wereborninPoland,whoarenowestimatedtobethesecondlargestcountry-of-birthgroupbehind
thoseborninIndia.Interestingly,Censusdatafrom2001suggeststhatthePolish-bornpopulation
hadbeengrowingevenbefore2004.WhilesamplesizesandlackofdatafromtheCensusmeanthat
theincreasesintheLithuanianpopulationcannotbetrackedinthesameway,itistellingthat
LithuaniannationalshavegonefrombeingastatisticallyinsignificantgroupintheLFSinearly2004
tobeingthe23rdlargestforeignnationalgroupintheUKattheendof2007.

Table5.PolesandLithuaniansintheUK,variousyears
Census2001 LFS2004Q1 LFS2007Q4
Number Rankamongall Number Rankamongall
immigrantgroups immigrantgroups
Polishnationals Nodataavailable 53,000 13 447,000 1
Polish-born 58,000 84,000 14 458,000 2
Lithuaniannationals Nodataavailable * * 51,000 23
Lithuanian-born 4,200 * * 52,000 32
*Notstatisticallysignificant
Source:Census2001,LFSandipprcalculations

Otherindicatorsonthescaleofpost-enlargementmigration
Intheabsenceofrobustdataonthescaleofpost-enlargementmigration,itisalsousefultosee
whetherotherindicatorsthatarenotdirectlymigration-relatedsuggestasimilarscaleofincrease.
PerhapsthemostobviousindicatoristhehugeincreaseinthenumberofflightsbetweentheUK
andthenewEUmemberstates,withsubstantiallymorepassengersflyingbetweenmanymore
destinationsthanbefore2004(seeFigure5,nextpage).InDecember2003some40,000
passengersflewbetweenthreeBritishairportsandWarsawandKrakowinPoland.ByDecember
2007,itwaspossibletoflyfrom22BritishairportstotenPolishcities,andpassengernumbers
betweenthesedestinationsthatmonthwerealmost385,000(CivilAviationAuthority2008).In
totalsome10millionairpassengerstravelledbetweentheUKandA8/A2countriesin2007,a
three-foldincreaseonpre-enlargementairtraffic.
22 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure5.InternationalpassengertraffictoandfromUKairports,1997-2007*

5
Number of passengers (Millions)

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Poland Rest of A8 A2

Source:CivilAviationAuthority2003
*Includesallpassengerscarriedonscheduledandcharteredservicesexcludingthosecarriedonaircraftcharteredby
Governmentdepartments

TheincreaseinthenumberofflightsfromtheUKtothenewmemberstatesappearstohavebeen
accompaniedbyadeclineinthenumberofcoachesmakingthesejourneys.InJuly2007,around80
coachesranperweekbetweenLondon’sVictoriaCoachStationanddestinationsinA8countries,
including67inPoland.AtthebeginningofMarch2008,thisnumberstoodataround45coaches
(TransportforLondon2008).Evenaccountingforseasonaldifferencesbetweenthesetwosnapshots,
thereisacleartrendofdecliningpopularityofcoachtravelbetweentheUKandthenewmember
states.AnecdotalevidencesuggeststhatwhilemigrantsmayarriveintheUKforthefirsttimeby
coach,sothattheycanbringlargeamountsofbaggage,theyoftenchoosetoflywhenmaking
subsequenttrips.
TherehasalsobeenasimilarincreaseinthetouristvisitstoUKbyA8nationals.AsFigure6(next
page)indicates,visitstotheUKhaveincreaseddramaticallysinceMay2004.Whilemanyaccession
nationalshavecometoworkintheBritisheconomy,inthelastthreemonthsof2006(thelastperiod
forwhichdataisavailable),48percentofthe611,000visitsfromA8nationalsduringthatperiod
wereforleisurepurposes,ahighproportionofwhichwerepresumablytovisitfriendsandfamilywho
havemovedtotheUK.TheseadditionalnumbersarelikelytohaveapositiveimpactontheBritish
tourismsector(OfficeforNationalStatistics2006b).
AnotherindicatoristhegrowthinsalesofA8–primarilyPolish–goodsandservicesintheUK.For
example,therehavebeenseveralhundredPolishdelisestablishedthroughoutthecountryoverthe
lastfouryears.EstablishedsuppliershavebeencateringtotheincreaseddemandforPolishgoods.In
July2007,TescoannouncedthatitwasdoublingbothitsrangeofPolishproductsandthenumberof
storesstockingthem.TesconowsellsPolishfoodinmorestoresintheUKthanPoland,whereithas
280shops(Tesco2007).Similarly,theleadingPolishbeerbrandsLechandTyskiewerenotwidely
availableintheUKpriorto2004.Accordingtothebrands’ownerSABMiller,annualUKsalesofthe
twobeersnowexceed44millionpintsperyear(SABMiller2008).
23 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure6.VisitstotheUKfromA8nationals,2003-2006
600
Czech Republic

500 Poland

Other A8

400
Visits to the UK (thousands)

300

200

100

0
1 Qtr- 2 Qtr- 3 Qtr- 4 Qtr- 1 Qtr- 2 Qtr- 3 Qtr- 4 Qtr- 1 Qtr- 2 Qtr- 3 Qtr- 4 Qtr- 1 Qtr- 2 Qtr- 3 Qtr- 4 Qtr-
2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics2006b
24 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

5.Thedemographicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants
Nationality
Thelargemajorityofpost-accessionmigrantstotheUKhavecomefromPoland.Twothirds(66
percent)ofallapprovedapplications(508,385)totheWRSbetweenMay2004andDecember
2007werefromPoles.ThePolishStatisticalOffice(CSO)estimatesthat580,000Poleswereliving
intheUKin2006,andthat30percentofPolishmigrantslivingintheEUwereinBritain.The
secondlargestpopulationofPolishmigrantswasinGermany,wheretheCSOestimates23per
centofmigrantswere.AccordingtotheCSOtheoutflowofmigrantstotheUKincreasedby127
percentbetween2004and2005,causingtheUKtoovertakeGermanyasthemostpopular
destination.TheincreaseinoutflowtotheUKbetween2005and2006was71percent(Kepinska
2007).
ThenexttwolargestgroupsofmigrantstohaveregisteredontheWRSareSlovakian(78,830)
andLithuanian(73,315),intotalamountingtoaroundtwoineverytenapplicants.Moderate
numbersofpeoplehavecometoworkfromtheCzechRepublic,LatviaandHungary(34,555,
37,300and25,755respectively).Only6,845Estoniansandjust695Slovenianshaveregisteredon
thescheme.
TheproportionsofA8migrantscomingtotheUKfromeachcountryhaveremainedbroadly
constant,withtheexceptionofLithuania,whosemigrantpopulationintheUKhasdeclinedsince
theendof2005.ThenumberofLithuanianswhoregisteredontheWRSwasalmost30percent
lowerinthelastquarterof2007thaninthelastquarterof2006(2,870comparedwith4,015).
DatafromtheLabourForceSurvey,presentedinFigure8(nextpage),suggestsasimilarnational
profile.

Figure7.WorkerRegistrationSchemeregistrationsapprovedbynationality,2004-2007

250

225

200
Slovenia
175
Slovakia
150
Thousands

Poland

125 Lithuania

100 Latvia

75 Hungary

50 Estonia

25 Czech Republic

0
2004 2005 2006 2007
Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a
25 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure8.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsintheUKbynationality,2001-2007

100%

90%
Country nationals as % of A8/A2 nationals in the UK

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Czech Republic Lithuania Poland Slovakia A2 Other A8

Source:LFSandipprcalculations

Gender
OfthosemigrantworkerswhoregisteredontheWRSbetweenMay2004andDecember2007,57per
centweremenand43percentwerewomen(HomeOfficeetal 2008a).Thesamegenderratiowas
foundamongRomaniansandBulgarianswhocametotheUKbetweenOctoberandDecember2007
(HomeOfficeetal 2008b).
Thehighernumberofmenthanwomenarrivingsince2004hassignificantlyalteredthegenderprofile
ofthestockofmigrantsfromthenewaccessioncountrieslivingintheUK.Theolderprofileofpeople
borninEasternEuropelivingintheUKpre-accessionmeantthatthereweresignificantlymorewomen
thanmenamongthisgroup(duetowomenlivinglongeronaveragethanmen).

Age
AsFigure9indicates(nextpage),post-accessionmigrantsareoverwhelminglyagedbetween18and
34.MorethaneightintenA8workers(82percent)whoregisteredbetweenMay2004and
December2007fellintothiscategory.Morethanfourinten(43percent)wereaged18-24,and39
percentwereaged25-34.
MorethansevenintenRomanianandBulgariannationals(73percent)registeringforanAccession
WorkerCardorregistrationcertificatebetweenOctoberandDecember2007wereaged18-34.In
comparisonwithA8workers,moreofthoseregisteringfromA2countriesfellintothe25-34ageband
(46percent)thanthe18-24band(27percent).
AccordingtotheLFS,75percentofA8andA2nationalsresidentintheUKin2007wereaged16-
39.Similarlyaswithgender,thepost-accessionwaveofmigrationhastransformedtheageprofileof
thestockofpeopleborninthosecountriesnowlivingintheUK.(SeeFigure10,nextpage.)

Maritalstatus
In2007,theLFSfoundthat58percentofA8andA2nationalsintheUKweremarried,cohabitingor
inacivilpartnership.OursurveyfoundthatoneinfivereturnedPoles(19percent)arrivedintheUK
withtheirpartnerorspouse.
26 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure9.WorkerRegistrationSchemeregistrationsbyage,May2004-December2007
100%
Country nationals as % of A8/A2 nationals in the UK

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Q2-2004 Q3-2004 Q4-2004 Q1-2005 Q2-2005 Q3-2005 Q4-2005 Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-2006 Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

<18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Others*

*Includes applicants who did not state their age or aged under 15 or over 72 Ageinyears
*includesapplicantswhodidnotstatetheirageoraged
Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a under15orover72

Figure10.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsintheUKbyage,2001-2007
100%

90%
A8/A2 nationals by age as % of A8/A2 nationals in the UK

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Under 16 16-24 25-39 40-64 65+

Ageinyears

Source:LFSandipprcalculations
27 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Dependants
TheproportionofworkersfromtheA8countrieswithdependantslivingwiththematthetimethey
registeredisverylow.OnlysevenpercentofworkerswhoregisteredontheWRSbetweenMay2004
andDecember2007declaredtheyhaddependantslivingwiththemintheUK.Intotal,theWRSrecords
85,270dependantswhohavearrivedwithregisteredworkerssince2004,55percentofwhomwere
agedunder17(HomeOfficeetal 2008a).Theproportionofregisteredworkerswhohavedependants
increasedbetween2004and2007,yetevenin2006,whenthenumberofnewly-registeredworkerswith
dependantsappearstohavepeaked,onlyninepercentofnewarrivalsregistereddependentadultsor
children.AsthoseregisteringontheWRSmayrecorddependantswhoarealsoworkingandregistered
onthescheme,thesefiguresarelikelytooverestimatethenumberofadultdependants.

Figure11.WorkerswithdependantsregisteredattheWorkerRegistrationScheme,May2004-December2007
12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
Q2-2004 Q3-2004 Q4-2004 Q1-2005 Q2-2005 Q3-2005 Q4-2005 Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-2006 Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

Workers with dependants/Total workers Dependants under 17/Total workers Dependants 17 and over/Total workers

Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008aandipprcalculations

TheLFSestimatesthat13percentofaccessionstatenationalslivingintheUKin2007areaged16
orunder.AccordingtotheDepartmentforChildren,SchoolsandFamilies,Polishisnowthemost
commonly-spokenfirstlanguageamongnon-English-speakingnewly-arrivedmigrantschoolchildren
acrossEngland(DepartmentforChildren,SchoolsandFamilies2008).

Levelofeducation
Definitivedataonnewaccessionmigrants’levelofeducationisnotavailable.WhiletheLFSprovides
dataonthequalificationsheldbyrespondents,qualificationsnotobtainedintheUKareclassifiedas
‘other’andnootherdetailaboutthemisprovided.However,arangeofsurveyandadministrativedata
suggeststhatasagrouptheyarehighlyeducated.
Eadeetal usetheagevariableoftheLFSdatasetandWorldBankeducationstatisticstocalculatethe
averagenumberofyearsspentinfull-timeeducationamongA8migrants.Theyfindthatonaverage
PolishmigrantsintheUKhave13.6yearsoffull-timeeducation,andthattheaverageforotherA8
migrantsis11.9years.Theysuggestthatthehigherproportionofstudentsamongnon-PolishA8
migrantscouldexplainthisdifference.ippranalysisofLFSdatainDecember2007foundthatthe
averageageforleavingfull-timeeducationamongPolishnationalsis20.1,comparedwith17.5among
UKcitizens.Ofthe25largestimmigrantgroupsintheUK,Polesranksixthintermsoflengthoftime
spentinfull-timeeducation(Sriskandarajahetal 2007).
Asurveyofmorethan900A8workersinFifefoundthatnearly30percenthadauniversitydegree,and
afurther22percenthadanunder-graduatelevelqualification(FifeResearchCoordinationGroup2008).
28 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

6.Thespatialprofileofpost-enlargementmigration
Post-enlargementmigrantshavemovedtoalargernumberofdifferentareasoftheUKthanhaveany
previousgroupsofmigrants.Thisreflectsthefactthatthisgroup’soverwhelmingmotivationfor
comingtotheUKistowork.Asagrouptheyhavehighdegreeofmobility,movingtowhereworkis
available.
Overall,thehighestnumbersofNiNoandWRSapplicationsfromA8andA2nationalssince2004
havebeeninLondonandtheSouthEast.However,asignificantlysmallerproportionofA8andA2
migrantsliveinandaroundthecapitalthanforeign-bornresidentsasawholeandallregionshave
receivedsignificantnumbersofpost-enlargementmigrants.In2007PolishNiNorecipientswere
registeredineverylocalauthorityinBritain(Rabindrakumar2008).AsTable6shows,areasthathave
nottraditionallyattractedlargenumbersimmigrants,suchastheEastofEngland,theSouthWest,
ScotlandandNorthernIreland,havedrawnasignificantproportionofpost-enlargementmigrants.

Table6.A8/A2nationalscomparedwithotherforeignnationalsandUKnationalsofworkingagebyregion,
2007
Government A8/A2NiNo WRSapprovals A8/A2nationals NonA8/A2 UKnationalsof
OfficeRegion applications2006/7 2004-2007 ofworkingage foreignnationals workingage
arrivedsince2004 ofworkingage
NorthEast 1.7% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 5.2%
NorthWest 8.6% 8.4% 7.2% 6.7% 10.7%
Yorks&Humber 7.3% 8.2% 6.9% 5.5% 8.6%
EastMidlands 8.1% 10.3% 11.1% 4.4% 7.3%
WestMidlands 8.0% 8.5% 7.6% 7.5% 8.8%
EastofEngland 9.1% 12.0% 4.8% 3.2% 3.7%
London 21.8% 15.4% 21.4% 40.9% 11.1%
SouthEast 11.2% 13.4% 17.1% 17.3% 19.3%
SouthWest 7.4% 7.6% 8.4% 4.2% 8.5%
Wales 2.9% 2.9% 3.8% 2.2% 5.1%
Scotland 9.3% 8.3% 5.3% 4.6% 8.8%
NorthernIreland 4.7% 3.9% 4.3% 1.8% 3.0%
Note:Sometotalsmaynotsumto100%duetorounding
Source:DepartmentforWorkandPensions2007,HomeOffice2008c,LFSandipprcalculations

Thereisalsoevidencetosuggestthatsomeofthesespatialpatternshavechangedovertime.Initially,
A8migrantswereconcentratedinLondonandtheSouthEast.Thiscanbepartlyexplainedbythefact
thatmanymigrantsfromtheA8countriesalreadyworkingintheseregionswouldhaveregisteredon
WRSin2004,althoughthefallintheproportionofnewregistrantsinLondonbetween2004and
2005wasdramatic(ninepercent),aswastheincreaseinthenumbersregisteringinotherregions
(seeAppendixA).However,theLFSfiguresforstockineachregionattheendof2007suggestthat
peoplewhoinitiallyregisteredinsomeregions,particularlytheEastofEngland,mayhave
subsequentlymovedaway.ManyofthesepeoplemayhavemovedtoLondonandtheSouthEast,
wherethestockfiguresarehigherthantheproportionofWRSregistrationsinthoseareas.
Table7liststhetenlocalauthoritiesthatweestimatehavethehighestnumberofA8workersin
proportiontotheirresidentpopulation.TheCityofLondon,whichtopsthelist,isanomalousbecause
ofitsverysmallresidentpopulation.WiththeexceptionoftheCityandtheLondonBoroughof
Westminster,thelistismadeupofplaceswhichhavenotpreviouslyreceivedsignificantnumbersof
migrants.
29 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

AfulllistoflocalauthoritiescanbefoundinAppendixB.Itpresentssomeinterestingdifferencesthat
needtobeexploredinmoredepth.Forexample,somelocalauthoritiesinNorthernEngland,suchas
Sheffield,StockportandWigan,haveattractedrelativelylownumbersofA8migrantsinproportionto
thesizeoftheirpopulations.Itmaybethatthesepatternsarerelatedtotheavailabilityof
employment,butfurtherexaminationofthesetrendsisnecessary.

Table7.LocalauthoritieswithhighestnumbersofWRSworkersper1,000residents
Localauthority ApprovedWRSapplications 2006populationestimate NumberofA8workersper
May2004-December2007 1,000residentsbasedonour
estimateofcurrentA8stock*
CityofLondon 3,590 7,800 306
Boston 7,875 58,300 90
Westminster 19,275 231,900 55
Northampton 14,250 200,100 47
SouthHolland 5,195 82,100 42
Peterborough 9,995 163,300 41
Fenland 4,760 90,100 35
Dungannon 2,735 52,300 35
CountyofHerefordshire 9,285 177,800 35
EastCambridgeshire 4,115 79,600 34
Source:HomeOffice2008candONSwithipprcalculations
*OurestimateofthecurrentA8stockisbasedontheassumptionsoutlinedearlierinthereport;thattheWRS
underestimatestheactuallevelofworkerregistrationby33percent;andthat50percentofA8migrantswhohavearrived
sinceMay2004arenolongerintheUK.

Althoughthearrivalofnewmigrantstoareaswithnohistoryofimmigrationmayinalimitednumber
ofcasescreatesomeshort-termissuesforlocalauthoritiestoaddress,itisclearthatthemovementof
post-enlargementmigrantstosomepartsoftheUKhasbroughtsignificanteconomicbenefitsand
assistancetoregionaldevelopment.AsignificantproportionofA8migrantshavemovedtoruralareas,
providinglabourinareaswhererecruitmentcanbedifficult.AccordingtotheCommissionforRural
Communities(CRC),120,000migrantworkersregisteredintheruralareasofEnglandbetweenMay
2004andSeptember2006,representingalmostaquarter(23percent)ofWRSregistrationsduring
thatperiod.TheCRCalsofoundahigherdegreeofseasonalityinWRSregistrationsinruralareasthan
nationally,withSeptemberbeingthepeakregistrationmonth(CommissionforRuralCommunities
2007).
30 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

7.Thesocio-economicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants
Employment
Thevastmajorityofpost-enlargementmigrantslivinginBritainareworking.AccordingtotheLFS,84
percentofA8andA2nationalsofworkingagelivingintheUKinDecember2007wereinwork.This
figureishigherthanthepercentageofUKnationalsofworkingageinemployment(76percent)and
isoneofthehighestlevelsamongallforeignnationalslivingintheUK.Table8showsthehighrates
ofemploymentamongA8andA2migrantsofworkingage.Itillustratesthatthelargemajorityof
post-enlargementmigrantshavecometotheUKtowork,withtheproportionofA8andA2nationals
ofworkingageinemploymentincreasingsteeplyduring2004and2005assignificantnumbersof
migrantsarrived.

Table8.A8andA2nationalsofworkingageandinemploymentintheUK
Year/quarter Total Workingage Inemployment %ofthoseofworkingage
inemployment
2004
Q1 117,000 90,000 56,000 63
Q2 94,000 76,000 59,000 78
Q3 146,000 125,000 90,000 72
Q4 174,000 150,000 114,000 76
2005
Q1 180,000 156,000 117,000 75
Q2 228,000 198,000 159,000 80
Q3 271,000 235,000 190,000 81
Q4 305,000 265,000 215,000 82
2006
Q1 348,000 297,000 245,000 83
Q2 365,000 314,000 260,000 83
Q3 428,000 373,000 308,000 83
Q4 501,000 430,000 356,000 83
2007
Q1 533,000 458,000 374,000 82
Q2 620,000 530,000 435,000 82
Q3 616,000 521,000 434,000 83
Q4 665,000 567,000 474,000 84
Note:Figuresareroundedtothenearestthousand
Source:LabourForceSurvey

In2007,fivepercentofA8andA2nationalsintheUKwereunemployedandtenpercentwere
economicallyinactive.Thefactthattheproportionofthisgroupthatwaseconomicallyinactivestood
at33percentpriorto2003suggeststhatmanyofthisgrouparepensionerswhoarelong-time
residentsoftheUK(seeFigure12,nextpage).
31 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure12.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsofworkingageintheUKbyeconomicactivity*,2001-2007
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Employed Unemployed Inactive


*Excludesfulltimestudents
Source:LFSandipprcalculations

Benefitsclaimants
AsmembersoftheEuropeanUnion,A8andA2nationalsenjoybroadlythesameentitlementsto
benefitsandsupportasBritishnationalswholiveandworkintheEUoutsidetheUK.Thepossibility
ofenlargementresultinginlargenumbersofwhatthetabloidpresshaslabelled‘benefittourists’
comingtotheUKtoenjoyrelativelybetterstatebenefitswasaprominentconcernindiscussionsof
EUenlargement.Yettheevidencesuggeststhatonlyasmallproportionofpost-enlargementmigrants

Figure13.NiNoapplicationsfromA8nationals,May2004-December2007
90

80

70

60
Thousands

50

40

30

20

10

0
Q2-2004 Q3-2004 Q4-2004 Q1-2005 Q2-2005 Q3-2005 Q4-2005 Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-2006 Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

Allocated for employment purposes Allocated for benefit purposes Allocated for tax credit purposes Refused

Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a
32 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

haveclaimedbenefits,andwheretheyhaveclaimedbenefitsthesehaveprincipallybeentaxcredits
andChildBenefitclaimedbymigrantswhoareworking.Ofthe819,000NiNosissuedtoA8nationals
betweenApril2004andDecember2007(seeFigure13),97.6percentwereissuedforemployment
purposes,with1.6percentallocatedforthepurposeofclaimingtaxcreditsand0.8percentforthe
purposeofclaimingbenefits(HomeOfficeetal 2008a).
WhiletherehasbeenanincreaseinthenumberofA8nationalsapplyingfortaxcreditsandbenefits
overthelastfouryears,theoverallnumberssuccessfullyapplyinghaveremainedlow.BetweenMay
2004andDecember2007,51,518applicationstoreceiveTaxCreditswereapproved,aswere89,281
applicationstoreceiveChildBenefit.Duringthesameperiod4,872applicationsforincome-based
Jobseeker’sAllowance,IncomeSupportandStatePensionCreditwereallowedtoproceedforfurther
considerationofwhethertheclaimantsmeettheotherconditionsofentitlement(HomeOfficeetal
2008a).
Just121NiNoswereissuedtoBulgarianandRomaniannationalsbetweenJanuaryandDecember
2007forthepurposeoftaxcreditapplicationsand307wereissuedforbenefitspurposes(Home
Officeetal 2007a-c,2008b)(seeFigure14).

Figure14.NiNoapplicationsfromA2nationals,2007
12

10
Refused

8
Allocated for tax
credit purposes
Thousands

Allocated for benefit


purposes
4

Allocated for
employment purposes
2

0
Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

Source:BulgarianandRomanianAccessionStatistics,DepartmentforWorkandPensions

LFSdataforQuarter4of2007suggeststhatalmostexactlythesameproportionofA8/A2nationals
claimchildbenefit(fourpercent)andtaxcredits(ninepercent)asUKnationals(fivepercentand10
percentrespectively).While26percentofUKnationalsareinreceiptofotherstatebenefits,the
proportionofA8/A2nationalsclaimingtheseislikelytobelessthanfivepercent.

Table9.NumbersandproportionsofA8andA2nationalsclaimingchildbenefitandtaxcredits,compared
withUKnationals
Typeofbenefitclaimed NumbersofA8/A2 NumbersofUK ProportionofA8/A2 ProportionofUK
nationalsarrivedsince nationalsclaiming nationalsarrivedsince nationalsclaiming
2004claimingbenefits benefits 2004claimingbenefits benefits
Childbenefit 22,759 2,464,006 4.4% 4.5%
Taxcredits 47,687 5,225,001 9.2% 9.5%
Source:LabourForceSurveyandipprcalculations
33 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Students
Table10showsthatthenumberofhighereducationstudentsfromPolandincreasedby56percent
from4,325in2005/06to6,770in2006/07.Polishstudentsarenowthesixthlargestnationalgroup
ofEUstudentsintheUK.ThenumberofstudentsfromLithuaniaandLatviaalsoincreased,by53per
centand64percentrespectively(HigherEducationStatisticsAgency2008).
Theincreasednumberofstudentsfromthenewaccessioncountrieshascontributedtoanoverall
increaseinthenumberofEUstudentsintheUK,andthefinancialbenefitstotheUKinherentinthis.
OnestudyestimatesthatEUstudentspaidatleast£180millionperyearintuitionfeesalonein2004-
2005(VickersandBekhradnia2007).

Table10.ToptenEUcountriesofdomicilein2006/07forHEstudentsinhighereducationinstitutionsintheUK
Countryofdomicile 2005/06 2006/07 %change
RepublicofIreland 16,790 16,255 -3
Greece 17,675 16,050 -9
Germany 13,265 14,010 6
France 12,455 13,070 5
Cyprus 7,205 8,710 21
Poland 4,325 6,770 56
Spain 6,225 6,350 2
Italy 5,460 5,990 10
Sweden 3,325 3,380 2
Portugal 2,885 3,010 4
TotalEU* 106,225 112,260 6
Note:*TotalEUexcludesUKandthe2007accessioncountriesofRomaniaandBulgaria
Source:HigherEducationStatisticsAgencyStudents2008

ippr’squalitativeresearchwithPolishmigrantshasfoundthatmanymigrantsenrolonpart-time
coursesasawayoflearningnewskillsandexploringcreativesubjectssuchasphotographyand
potteryandthatsuchopportunitiesareoftennotavailableatanaffordablepriceintheirhome
countries.Eveningorweekendclassarealsotakenasanopportunitytomeetpeople,makefriends
andimproveEnglish-languageskills.Somemigrantsmoveintocreativecareersfromlow-skilled,low-
paidjobsasaresultofdevelopingskillsthroughpart-timecourses.Somefeltthatsuchopportunities
wouldnotbepossibleintheirhomecountries.
OnefemalePolishmigrantinLondon(25-34agegroup)toldus:‘It[photography]wasahobbythat
becameapotentialearner.ItwasalwaysatthebackofmymindthatIneedtodosomethingwith
this,becauseIreallyloveit.’

Workers
AccordingtotheLFS,86percentofA8andA2nationalswhoareworkingareemployees,and14per
centareself-employed.Morethanhalf(52percent)ofthosewhoareself-employedareagedunder
30,andapproachingthreequarters(73percent)ofself-employedaremen.Self-employedworkers
arehighlyconcentratedinLondon,withalmostthreeineveryfour(74percent)locatedinthecapital
(LFSandipprcalculations).AsFigure15shows,theproportionofthoseinself-employmentisfalling.
34 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure15.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsofworkingageintheUK,bytypeofemployment,2001-2007
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Employee Self-employed

Source:LFSandipprcalculations

Sectoralprofile
In2007,morethanhalf(52percent)ofthoseregisteringontheWRSwereintemporary
employment.Theagriculturalandbusiness,administrationandmanagementindustrysectorsemploy
veryhighproportionsoftemporaryworkers,whileamajorityofemployeesinthehospitalityand

Figure16.WRSregistrationsintop60industrysectors,May2004-December2007
60

50

40
Thousands

30

20

10

0
Q2-2004 Q3-2004 Q4-2004 Q1-2005 Q2-2005 Q3-2005 Q4-2005 Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-2006 Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

Admininstration, business & managerial services Hospitality and catering


Agriculture Manufacturing
Food/fish/meat processing Health & medical services

Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a
35 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

cateringandmanufacturingsectorsarepermanent(HomeOfficeetal 2008a).
ThetopfivesectorsinwhichworkersregisteredtoworkbetweenMay2004andDecember2007were
administration,businessandmanagement5 (39percent),hospitalityandcatering(19percent),
agriculture(10percent),manufacturing(sevenpercent)andfood,fishandmeatprocessing(fiveper
cent).Theproportionsofmigrantsworkingineachofthesesectorshaveremainedbroadlyconstant
overthelastfouryears.However,thereareclearseasonalpatternsinsomesectors,mostnotably
agriculture,whichemployshigherproportionsofmigrantsinthesummermonths.
Figure17showsthefourindustrialsectors,asdefinedintheLFS,inwhichthehighestproportionof
A8/A2nationalsintheUKareemployedandcomparesratesofemploymentwiththoseofBritish
nationals.Ineachcase,asignificantlyhigherproportionofA8/A2nationalsareemployedthanamong
UK-bornnationals.Thispatternisparticularlystarkinrelationtomanufacturing,thesectorinwhich
32percentofA8/A2nationalsareemployed,incontrasttojust13percentofBritishnationals.

Figure17.A8/A2nationalsarrivedsince2004comparedwithUKnationals,byindustrysector,2007
35%

30%

25%
% of working age population

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Manufacturing Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communication

A8/A2 nationals arrived since 2004 UK nationals

Source:LFS2007,Q4

Figure18(nextpage)showsthatalthoughthemostcommonsectorsofworkareconsistentacross
thedifferentgroupsofA8nationals,therearesmalldifferencesintheproportionsofeachgroupof
nationalsworkingineachsector.
ExaminingtheoccupationsundertakenbyregisteredA8workersshowsthatasignificantmajority
workinfactoriesandwarehousesasoperativesandpackers.Theseasonalnatureofagricultural
employmentisagainapparent,withanincreaseinthenumberofpeopleworkingasfarmhands
betweenAprilandSeptember.
Themostsignificantnumbersofmigrantsregisteredtoworkinadministration,businessand
managementbetweenMay2004andSeptember2007wereinEastAngliaandtheMidlands.The

5.Themajorityofworkersinthissectorworkforrecruitmentagenciesandcouldbeemployedina
varietyofoccupations
36 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure18ProportionofWRSregistrationsintop60industrysectors,bynationality,cumulativetotalMay
2004-December2007
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia

Admininstration, business & managerial services Hospitality and catering Agriculture

Manufacturing Food/fish/meat processing Health & medical services

Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a

NorthEast,NorthWestandCentralregionsalsohavehighnumbersofmigrantsregisteringtoworkin
thissector.
MorethantwiceasmanymigrantsregisteredtoworkinhospitalityandcateringinLondonthanin
anyotherregion.TheCentralregion,ScotlandandtheSouthWestwerethenextmostpopularareas
forpeopleworkinginthissectortoregister.
ForpeopleregisteringtoworkinagricultureEastAngliawasthemostpopularregion.TheSouthWest
andScotlandwerethenextmostcommonregionsinwhichtobeworkinginthissector.
ThehighestnumbersregisteredtoworkinmanufacturingintheMidlandsandNorthEast,followedby
theNorthWest.Morepeopleregisteredtoworkinfood,fishandmeatprocessinginScotlandthan
anywhereelse.TheNorthWestandMidlandsalsorecordedhighnumbersregisteringinthisarea
(HomeOfficeetal 2008a).
ThereissignificantlylessdataavailableonthesectorsinwhichRomaniansandBulgarianswork
thanfornationalsoftheA8countries.Ofthe2,520applicationsforworkpermitsfromthesetwo
nationalitiesin2007,themostcommonsectorinwhichapplicantsintendedtoworkwas
entertainmentandleisure,followedbyhospitalityandcatering.
AlthoughthenumberofA8andA2migrantsworkinginhigh-skilledjobsislow,therehasbeenan
increaseinthenumberofaccessioncountrynationalsworkinginsuchsectors.Forexample,the
GeneralMedicalCouncilrecordedanincreaseofjustover25percent(around1,300)inthe
numberofregistereddoctorsfromA8andA2countries(principallyPoland)between2005and
2007.
37 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure19.TotalnumberofdoctorsborninA8/A2countriesregisteredtotheGeneralMedicalCouncil,
2005-2007
2,500

2005 2006 2007

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia Romania Bulgaria
Republic

Source:GeneralMedicalCouncil2007

However,theproportionsofpost-enlargementmigrantsworkinginhighly-paidprofessionaljobs
shouldbekeptinperspective.In2007,89percentofA8andA2nationalsworkingintheUKearned
lessthan£400perweekbeforetax,comparedwith57percentofworkersbornintheUK.In2007
sevenintenWRS-registeredworkersearnedbetween£4.50and£5.99perhour.
AccordingtotheLFS,since2004therehasbeenasharpincreaseinthenumberofhoursA8andA2
nationalsareworking.Thisincreaseseemstohavepeakedin2005at47hours,butremainedfour
hourslongerthanUK-bornworkersin2007(46hourscomparedwith42).
Thereisalargediscrepancybetweenthehighlevelsofeducationthatmanypost-enlargement
migrantshaveandthelow-skilledandpoorlypaidjobsinwhichthemajorityareworking.Oursurvey
ofmigrantsthathadreturnedtoPolandfoundthateducationalattainmenthasnosignificantimpact
onrespondents’earnings.Italsoindicatesthatworkerswhohavehighereducationqualificationsare
morelikelytobeworkinginelementalprofessionssuchascleaningthanthosewithvocationalskills,
whoareabletofindworkinskilledtrades.
TheFifeResearchCoordinationGroupsurveyfoundthat70percentofA8workersarenotmaking
useoftheirskillsintheircurrentjobs(FifeResearchCoordinationGroup2008).Inaddition,asurvey
ofhigh-skilledPolishworkersinLondonbytheCenterforInternationalRelationsinWarsawfound
thatasignificantnumberofrespondentsworkinginjobsrelevanttoandmaximisingtheir
qualificationswereworkinginservicesonlyforthePolishcommunity,suchasPolishschoolsand
media(Iglicka2008).
Thissituationclearlycreatesanumberofundesirablesituations.Thereisasignificantpoolof
untappedhigh-skilledlabourintheUKthatisbeingwasted.Atthesametimetalentedandeducated
peoplewhocouldhaveinterestingjobscontributingtotheirowncountries’successarebeingunder-
stimulated,doingunskilledworkinBritain.
However,atthemomentworkingintheUKcontinuestobeanattractiveprospectformanyyoung
peopleinthenewaccessioncountries.Manyarepreparedtoworkinlow-skilledjobsinwhichthey
38 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

cancurrentlyearnmorethaninhigh-skilledprofessionsathomeforashortperiodoftime.Aftera
fewmonthsoryearsinBritaintheycanreturnhomewithsignificantfundstocontinuetheireducation
orinvestinenterpriseorproperty.However,asdiscussedinmoredetailbelow,astheeconomiesof
thenewaccessionstatesrapidlygrow,thisisasituationthatisunlikelytocontinueinthelongterm.
OurqualitativeresearchwithPolesinLondonprovidesapositivepictureofthefutureemployment
prospectsofthosewhosettleintheUK,bysuggestingthatthosewhostayinthelongtermoften
moveintojobsthataremoresuitedtotheirskills,especiallyoncetheirEnglishskillshaveimproved.
39 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

8.Migrationpatterns
Thefindingsfromourqualitativeandquantitativeworkchimewithwidely-reportedanecdotal
evidencethatthepatternsofpost-enlargementmigrationareverydifferentfrompreviouswavesof
migrationtotheUK.
WhilemanypeoplewhocametotheUKinthepastfromplacessuchastheCaribbeanandSouthAsia
intendedtoreturnhomeeventually,movingtoBritainwasviewedasatleastasemi-permanent
arrangement;moretransitorypatternsofmigrationwereneitherafinancialnoralogisticalpossibility.
Incontrast,thepost-enlargementcountriesaregeographicallyclosetotheUKandareincreasingly
withineasyreachviacheapandregularflightsbetweenagrowingnumberofdestinations.
Itisincreasinglypossiblethesedaystobe‘circularmigrants’,comingtotheUKforatime,then
returninghome,orgoingelsewhere,thenreturningtotheUKagain,andsoon.Someofthesecircular
migrantstraveltotheUKseasonally,perhapsjustcomingforthesummermonthsoveranumberof
years.IncreasinglyflexiblepatternsofmobilitymakemigratoryflowsbetweenthenewEUmembers
andBritainevermorecomplex.

Seasonalandcircularmigration
Inasurveyundertakenin2006bytheUniversityofSurreyofmorethan500PolesintheUK,more
thanoneinfive(22percent)identifiedthemselvesasseasonalmigrants.Thisgrouptendedtobe
agedunder24,withlowerlevelsofeducation(UniversityofSurrey2006).WRSregistrationsshowa
clearseasonalpatternofwhenpeoplearriveintheUKtowork.Morejobsareavailableinsectors
employingasignificantproportionofmigrantssuchasconstruction,agriculture,andcateringand
hospitalityduringthespringandsummermonths.
Oursurveyfoundthatmorethanoneintenmigrants(13percent)(n=49)whohadreturnedfromthe
UKtoPolandhadlivedintheUKforatleastthreemonthsonmorethanoneoccasion.Returneesare
almostevenlysplitintermsoftheirfuturemigrationplans,with33percentintendingtoleavePoland
againtoliveabroadforatleastthreemonths,37percentintendingtoremaininPolandand30per
centsayingtheydonotknowwhattheirfutureplanswillbe.OfthosewhodointendtoleavePoland,
61percentthinktheywillcometotheUK.Amongthisgroup,fourinten(41percent)(n=31)intend
tostayintheUKforlessthantwoyears,withonlyonefifth(20percent)(n=15)planningtostay
permanently.WomenandreturnedmigrantstoPolandwithdependentchildrenareparticularlylikely
togivetheUKastheirintendeddestinationforfuturemigration.

Lengthofstay
ThemajorityofmigrantshaveanideaofhowlongtheyintendtostayintheUKwhentheyfirst
arrive.TheUniversityofSurrey’ssurveyofPolesfoundthatalmostoneinthree(31percent)
intendedtostayforlessthantwoyears.Peopleinthisgrouptendedtobeyoungandwiththelowest
levelsofeducation.Aroundoneineight(13percent)intendedtostaybetweentwoandfiveyears,
withasimilarproportionplanningtoremainformorethanfiveyears.Themostcommonagegroupto
selectthelatteroptionwasthoseaged46+.Afurther15percentsaidtheyplannedtostay
permanently,almost30percentofwhomwhereagedbetween24and34(UniversityofSurrey
2006).OfworkerswhoregisteredontheWRSduring2007,sixinten(59percent)intendedtostay
intheUKforlessthanthreemonthsatthetimewhentheyregistered.

CommutingfromPoland?
ThereissomeevidencethatsomePolishprofessionalsaregoingbeyondestablishedpatternsofcircularmigrationand
areeffectivelycommutingtoworkintheUK.InJanuary2008BBC’sNewsnightreportedthatanumberofPolish
doctorsweretravellingtotheUKatweekendstoprovideout-of-hourscoverforGPs.GPsinPolandearnaround£300
permonth,comparedwiththeaverage£80perhour(increasingtoasmuchas£200onbankholidays)thattheycan
earnprovidingout-of-hourscoverforBritishGPs.WiththeabundanceofcheapflightsbetweentheUKandmany
townsacrossPolandthefinancialattractionofworkinginthiswayisclear.
40 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure20.WorkerRegistrationSchemeregistrationsbyintendedlengthofstay,cumulativetotalJanuary-
December2007
3% 4% 8%
2%

24%

59%

Less than 3 months 3 to 5 months 6 to 11 months 1 to 2 years More than 2 years Don't know

Source:HomeOfficeetal 2005a,2008a

However,aquarterofworkersdonotknowhowlongtheyintendtostayatthetimeofregisteringon
theWRS,andtheUniversityofSurreyfoundthatalmostathird(30percent)ofthePolesthey
intervieweddidnotknowhowlongtheywouldstay.Thiscategorywasmostlymadeupofeducated
migrants,suggestingthattheirdecisiontostayinBritainorreturntoPolandmaybemotivatedbythe
availabilityofhigh-skilledjobsineachcountry.
Themajorityofmigrantsdostayforalimitedtimeperiod.AsshowninFigure21,in2007theLFS
foundthat64percentofA8andA2migrantshadbeenintheUKforlessthantwoyearsago,with
38percenthavingarrivedwithinthelastyear.OursurveyofreturnedPolesfoundthatthreequarters
(76percent)ofthosewhohadbeentotheUKononeoccasionstayedforlessthanayear,witha
furtherfifth(19percent)stayingforbetweenoneandthreeyears.

Figure21.A8/A2nationals’yearofarrivalintheUK,2001-2007
100%
A8/A2 nationals by year of arrival as % of A8/A2 nationals in the UK

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source:LFSandippr Less than 1 year 1-2 Years 2-3 Years 3-5 Years 5-10 years 10 years or more
calculations
41 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

9.Migrants’motivationsforcomingtotheUK
Thedecisiontomigratetoaparticularcountry,fortheshort,mediumorlongterm,alwaysinvolvesa
complexsetofpullandpushfactors.Thisisasubjectaroundwhichasignificantbodyofliteraturehas
grownup(seeEuropeanCommission2000foranoverviewoftheseworks).Whileitisnotpossibleto
provideadefinitiveaccountofthefactorsatworkinnewaccessionmigrants’decisiontocometothe
UK,thereareanumberofpotentialpushandpullfactorsthatcanbeexplored.

Economicpushandpullfactors
Oursurveydataunderlinestheimportanceofeconomicdriversofmigration.Afifth(22percent)of
returnedPolishmigrantscametotheUKinordertotakeajobtheyhadbeenoffered,afifth(20per
cent)cametoearnmoremoneyand13percent(n=48)cametolookforwork.
Havingemergedfromtotalitarianregimeslessthan20yearsago,allthenewaccessioncountries
continuetohavesignificantlylowerstandardsoflivingthanintheUK.In2004,theGDPpercapitaof
thewealthiestA8country,Slovenia,was85percentoftheEU25average,andthatofthepoorest
accessionmember,Latvia,waslessthanhalf(44percent)oftheEU25average.Atthetimeofjoining
theEUin2007,RomaniaandBulgaria’sGDPspercapitawere41percentand38percentoftheEU
averagerespectively.Incomparison,theUK’sGDPpercapitawas118percentoftheEUaveragein
2007(Eurostat2007).Therefore,goingtoworkinmoreprosperousEUmemberstatesclearlyprovides
anopportunitytoearnsignificantlymorethanA8andA2nationalscouldathome.
Thevariationinstandardsoflivinginthenewaccessioncountriesprovidessomeindicationsaboutthe
differentialnumbersmigratingtotheUKfromeachcountry.ThethreeA8countriesfromwhichthe
largestnumbersofmigrantsintheUKcomearePoland,LithuaniaandSlovakia,whichhavethreeof
thelowestGDPspercapitaofthenewaccessionstates,whereasthedifferencebetweenthestandard
oflivinginSlovenia,HungaryandtheCzechRepublicisperhapsnotsufficientlydifferentfromthatin
theUKtoactasasignificantpushfactorformigration.
Figure22showsthecorrelationbetweentheGDPpercapitaofmigrants’homecountryandthe
proportionofthatcountry’spopulationlivingintheUKin2004,theyearoftheA8accession.

Figure22.CorrelationbetweenGDPpercapitaandmigrationtotheUK,2004*
90
Slovenia

80
Czech Republic

70
Hungary
GDP per capita (PPS;EU25=100

60
Estonia Slovakia
Lithuania
50 Poland
Latvia

40

30

20

10

0
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40%
A8 nationals in the UK as percentage of country source population

*Thelinerepresentsthebestfitlineacrossthevalues
Source:Eurostat(2007)andipprcalculations
42 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Thelevelofunemploymentinmigrants’homecountriesisalsoclearlyapotentialcontributingfactor
totheirdecisiontoleaveandfindworkelsewhere.Again,thecountrieswiththelargestnumbersof
migrantslivingintheUK,Poland,LithuaniaandSlovakiahadthehighestlevelsofunemployment
amongtheA8countriesin2004(19percent,18.2percentand11.4percentrespectively);a
significantdifferencefromthelevelsfoundinthestrongereconomiesofstatessuchasHungaryand
Slovenia(6.1percentand6.3percent).AsFigure23shows,thereisalsoacorrelationbetweenlevel
ofunemploymentandtheproportionsofthepopulationsofA8countrieslivingintheUKin2004
(Eurostat).

Figure23.CorrelationbetweenunemploymentandmigrationtotheUK,2004*
20
Poland

Slovakia
18

16

14
Unemployment rate

12
Lithuania
Latvia

10
Estonia

Czech Republic
8
Slovenia
Hungary
6

4
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40%

A8 nationals in the UK as percentage of country source population

*Thelinerepresentsthebestfitlineacrossthevalues
Source:Eurostat2007andipprcalculations

Figure24.CorrelationbetweenyouthunemploymentandmigrationtotheUK,2004*
45

Poland
40

35
Unemployment rate for ages 15-24

Slovakia

30

25

Lithuania
Czech Republic
20
Latvia
Estonia

15
Slovenia Hungary

10

5
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40%
A8 nationals in the UK as percentage of country source population

*Thelinerepresentsthebestfitlineacrossthevalues
Source:Eurostat2007andipprcalculations
43 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Giventhat44percentofthosewhohaveregisteredontheWRSsince2004areaged18-24,therate
ofyouthunemploymentinmigrants’homecountriesisofparticularsignificance.Again,thehighest
ratesofyouthunemploymentin2004weretobefoundinthethreemostcommonhomecountriesof
A8migrantsintheUK,withyouthunemploymentinPolandstandingatastaggering40percent.
LowwageslevelsandhighlevelsofdissatisfactionhavemadeemploymentintheUK,eveninlow-
skilledjobs,anattractiveoptiontomanyyoungworkersinthenewaccessioncountries.Accordingto
theWarsawBusinessJournal,professionalshavebeenespeciallytargetedbyrecruitmentagenciesin
Poland,becausetheyareabletoearnsomuchmoreintheUKandIrelandthanathome(Barteczko
2006).
TheimpactofeconomicpushfactorssuchasdifferentialGDPpercapitaandunemploymentlevelsare
apparentinthechangingpatternsofmigrationfromtheA8countriesinjustoverthreeyearsbetween
April2004andSeptember2007,mostnotablyinrelationtoimmigrationtotheUKfromLithuania.
ThenumberofsuccessfulapplicationsbyLithuanianstotheWRSmorethanhalvedfrom7,600inthe
thirdquarterof2004to2,870inthelastquarterof2007.Between2004and2007therateof
unemploymentinLithuaniafellfrom11.4percentto4.3percent,whileGDPpercapitagrewfrom51
percentoftheEUaverageto60percent.
Inadditiontotheroleoftheseeconomic‘push’factors,thestrengthoftheUKeconomyhasalso
actedasa‘pull’factorformanymigrants.Highlevelsofspending,lowunemployment,andhigh
demandforlabourespeciallyinsectorssuchasconstructionhaveactedasdrawsformanypost-
enlargementmigrants.ThestrengthoftheBritishcurrencyinrecentyearshasactedasaparticular
pull,allowingearningsandsavingsfromtheUKtogoevenfurtherwhenspentinmigrants’home
countries.ThesurveybytheCenterforInternationalRelationsinWarsawofhigh-skilledPolesworking
inBritainfoundthat65percentweresavingsomeofthemoneytheywereearning,andthat60per
centofthisgroupweresendingmoneyhometoPoland(Iglicka2008).

TheopportunitytolearnEnglish
WantingtolearnEnglishisasignificantdrawformanypost-enlargementmigrants.Oneintenofthe
migrantswhohadreturnedtoPolandinoursurvey(11percent)(n=41)cametotheUKtolearn
English.Polishmigrantsweinterviewedaspartofourqualitativeworkoftenmentionedthattheir
initialdecisiontocometotheUKratherthangoelsewherewaslargelydrivenbythedesiretolearnor
improvetheirEnglish,especiallybeforePolandjoinedtheEUwhenGermanywasoftenthedefault
destinationforPolisheconomicmigrants.

Broadeninghorizons
Manyyoungpost-enlargementmigrantsaremotivatedtotravelbythesamefactorsthatdrawyoung
Britonstotakegapyearsortravelaftertheyhavefinishedtheirstudies:toseetheworldandbroaden
theirhorizons.OneinsixreturnedPolishmigrants(17percent)citeswantingtohaveanadventure,
experiencelivingabroadorexperienceanothercultureorsocietyasonetheirprimaryreasonsfor
comingtotheUK.Forexample:
‘IwasattheendofmystudiesandIwantedtoseewhatwasgoingonintheworld,to
trynewthings.’Male,Polish,25-34agegroup,London
OurqualitativeinterviewshighlightedthatLondon,especially,drawsyoungpeopletotheUK.Itis
perceivedasavibrantandexcitingcityofferingaplethoraofculturalandsocialopportunities.Almost
allthePolishmigrantswespoketocommentedonthediversenatureofBritishsociety,highlighting
themixofpeopleandculturesasapositiveaspectoflifeintheUK.Forexample:
‘I’vefoundoutIlikedifferenttypesofcuisine,andItrytocookindifferentways,not
justthePolishway.’Female,Polish,25-34agegroup,London
ManyofthePoleswithwhomweconductedin-depthinterviews,especiallythosewhoweregay,
mentionedthatoneoftheirmotivationsforcomingtoLondonwasthattheyperceivedthecitytobe
moretolerantthantheirhomecountries.Otherparticipantssaidtheyfelttheyhadmorefreedomin
theUKthanathome.Forexample:
44 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

‘Ilikethefreedom:thefreedomtowearwhateveryoulikefromyourwardrobeandgo
out,whichinPolandwouldbeimpossible,becauseyouwouldhaveeveryone’seyeson
you.’Female,Polish,25-34agegroup,London

Anenterpriseculture
Thereisevidencethatenterprisingyoungpeoplefromthenewaccessioncountriesareattractedto
theUKtosetupnewbusinesses.TheBritish-PolishChamberofCommerceestimatesonitswebsite
(http://bpcc.org.pl/en/content/view/192/)thattherearecurrently40,000Polishentrepreneurswho
havesetupbusinessesintheUK.AccordingtoMichaelDebinski,HeadofPolicy:‘Yougetthedistinct
feelingthatBritainistherightbusinessenvironmentforthem…theycanrealisetheirpotentialinthe
UK’(personalcommunicationwithippr).
WhileLFSdatasuggeststhat14percentofA8andA2nationalslivingintheUKareself-employed,
oursurveysamplepickedupveryfewmigrantsnowreturnedtoPolandwhohadbeenself-employed
inBritain.Thisdiscrepancymaypartlybeduetothesamplingmethodology,butitisalsoindicativeof
atrendhighlightedbyourqualitativeresearchwithPolesinLondon:thatthosewhosetupabusiness
intheUKarelesslikelytoreturnhomethanothers.Migrantswhohaveinvestedtimeandmoneyin
settingupabusinessarelesslikelytogivethisupandreturnhomethanthosewhohavesimplybeen
workingforemployers.Thissentimentisperhapsamplifiedbymanyconsideringthatitwouldbehard
torelocatetheirbusinessbackhomeorsetupanewbusinessthere.OneinfivereturnedPolish
migrants(19percent)saysthatmakingiteasiertostartabusinessinPolandwouldencouragePoles
livingintheUKtocomehome.

LeavingtheUK
OursurveyofreturnedPolishmigrantsfoundthatawidevarietyoffactorsinfluencepeople’s
decisionstoleavetheUK.
Incontrasttothecasewithmigrants’motivationsforcomingtotheUK,financialfactorsarenotthe
maindriversofmigrants’decisionstogohome.Oursurveyfindingssuggestthisisthecaseeven

Table11.ReturnedPolishmigrants’reasonsforleavingtheUK
Reasonforleaving Percentage Number
(Respondentsselectedallanswersrelevanttothem)
Imissedhome 36 135
TobewithfamilymembersinPoland 29 107
Ionlycametoworkseasonally/temporarily 18 67
IalwaysintendedtoreturnonceIhadsavedacertainamountofmoney 16 58
TocontinueeducationinPoland 15 54
IalwaysintendedtoreturnhomeafterspendingacertainamountoftimeintheUK 14 52
UnabletoearnenoughmoneyintheUK 7 27
Myspouse/partner/otherfamilymemberswerereturningtoPoland 7 24
ThecostoflivingintheUKistoohigh 5 18
IwantedmychildrentogrownupinPoland 4 15
UnabletofindworkintheUKthatIamqualifiedtodo 4 15
UnabletofindajobintheUK 4 13
HousingconditionsintheUKareunfavourable 3 12
Polisheconomyisstrongernowthanitwas 3 11
Ididn’tfeelwelcomeintheUK 3 10
WorkingconditionsintheUKareunfavourable 3 10
Tobuy/buildpropertyinPoland 3 10
45 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

amongthelowestpaidmigrants.Wefoundahigherproportionofthelowestpaidamongreturnees
thanamongpost-enlargementmigrantslivingintheUK.Oneinthreesampledreturnees(31percent)
earnedlessthan£200aftertaxduringthelastweektheyworkedintheUK,whilejustunderonein
sixA8andA2workers(17percent)currentlyintheUKearnedthisamount(LFS).
Asignificantproportionofmigrantsthathavereturnedhomesaythatthetimetheychosetogo
homewaspre-planned,with16percentsayingtheyalwaysintendedtoreturnoncetheyhadearned
acertainamountofmoney,15percentstatingtheyintendedtoreturnafteracertainamountoftime
and18percentaftertheirtemporaryorseasonalworkhadcometoanend.Andoverall,justunder
oneinsevenofthemigrantswhoreturnedhome(15percent)lefttheUKinordertocontinuetheir
education.
Byfarthemostcommonly-citedreasonsforreturningtoPolandarethoserelatedtopeople’spersonal
orfamilylives.Almostfourintenreturnedmigrants(36percent)saytheylefttheUKbecausethey
missedhome,almostthreeinten(29percent)citewantingtobewiththeirfamilyinPolandasa
reasonforreturning,andafurthersevenpercentthattheylefttheUKbecausetheirspouse,partner
orotherfamilymemberswerereturninghome.
46 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

10.Migrants’experiencesoftheUK
Oursurveyfoundthataquarter(24percent)ofreturnedPolishmigrantsfeelthattheirexperienceof
livingintheUKwasbetterthantheyhadexpected,46percentsaiditwasaboutthesameasthey
hadexpectedand18percentthatitwasworse.
Migrants’explanationsforwhytheirexperienceswerebetterorworsethanexpectedunderlinethe
centralityofworkingconditionsandpaytomigrants’qualityoflife.
Sixinten(59percent)ofthosewhoseexperienceswerebetterthanexpectedsaythiswasbecause
theirpayandmaterialconditionswerebetterthantheyhadthought.Morethanaquarter(27per
cent)(n=24)saythatthedifferencebetweentheirexpectationsandtherealityofbeingintheUKwas
duetotheirjobbeingbetterthanexpected.Ontheotherhand,morethantwothirds(68percent)
(n=44)ofthosewhoseexperienceswereworsethanexpectedcitedlowpayandlonghoursasa
reasonforthis.Morethanaquarterofthisgroup(27percent)(n=18)mentionedthattheir
disappointmentwithlifeintheUKwasfuelledbytheirinabilitytofindworktosuittheir
qualifications,underliningthenegativeconsequencesofunder-usingmigrants’skills.
MorethannineintenPolishmigrantsthathavereturnedhome(93percent)saidtheyhadclose
friendsintheUKwhowerePolish.OurqualitativeworkwithPolishmigrants,suggeststhatthelong
hourswhichmanyworkareabarriertoformingnewsocialrelationshipsbeyondthosewithcolleagues
andthepeoplewithwhomtheylive,whoareoftenotherPoles.Forexample,onesaid:
‘Idon’thavefreetime.Igotowork,comehome,eatandgotobed.’Male,Polish,25-
34agegroup,London
Inthiscontext,friendsandfamilyfromhomewhoarealsolivingintheUKoftenformthebasisof
manymigrants’socialcircles.Oneinfivemigrantsthathavereturnedhome(22percent)initially
arrivedintheUKwithfriends,with12percent(n=44)beingjoinedbyfriendswhocametolivewith
themoncetheywereintheUK.
‘MyoldfriendsfromPoland,fromuniversity,aremyfamilyhere.’Male,Polish,25-34
agegroup,London
Oursurveyofmigrantsthathavereturnedhomefoundthathalf(51percent)hadBritishfriends
whentheywereintheUK.OurqualitativeworkwithPoleslivinginLondonsuggeststhatmanyof
thesefriendshipsarelikelytocentreontheworkplace,andthatmoresubstantivefriendshipswith
BritishpeopletendtobemadewhenmigrantslivewithBritishpeopleorsocialisewiththemduring
theirleisuretime.AstudyfortheJosephRowntreeFoundationfoundthatthenumberofEastern
Europeanmigrants’socialrelationshipswithBritishpeopleincreasedastheylivedinthecountryfor
longerandwithmigrants’improvingabilitytospeakEnglish.EightintenoftheEasternEuropean
migrantswithfluentspokenEnglishinterviewedaspartofthestudysaidtheyspentsomeormostof
theirtimewithBritishpeople,fallingto29percentamongthosewithnospokenEnglish(Spenceret
al 2007).
Overall,42percentofmigrantsthathavereturnedhomesaythatintheUKtheyhadclosefriends
whowerefromcountriesotherthanPolandandtheUK.Ifwebreakdownbygender,almosthalfof
men(48percent)saidthis,perhapsreflectingthediversityintermsofnationalitiesofmoremale-
dominatedindustrialsectors,suchasconstruction,anindustryinwhichmanyofthemigrantsofour
samplethathadreturnedhomeworked.ThePoleswespoketoaspartofourqualitativeresearch
weregenerallypositiveabouttheirinteractionswithpeoplefromothercountries,andmanyvaluedthe
diversemixofpeopletobefoundintheUK.However,afewmaleparticipantsreportedsometensions
betweenpeopleofdifferentnationalitiesattheirworkplace.
‘It’saveryinternationalcountry,andIhavefriendsfromallovertheworld,notlike
Poland.’Female,Polish,25-34agegroup,London
47 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

TheexperienceoftheRomapopulation
Over15,000EasternEuropeanRomasoughtasylumintheUKbetween1994and2002,themajorityofwhomwere
fromPoland(Rutter2003).Veryfewoftheapplicationsweresuccessful,butasizablecommunityremainedwhiletheir
asylumclaimswereprocessedoras‘irregularmigrants’(peoplewhoareliabletobedeportedforissuesrelatedto
immigrationstatus).TheaccessionoftheA8andA2totheEUmeansthatRomafromthesecountriesarenolonger
abletoclaimasyluminBritain,butareabletocomeasmigrantworkersundertherestrictionsthatapplytoallA8and
A2nationals.
SylviaIngmireisthecoordinatoroftheRomaSupportGroup,acommunityorganisationworkingprimarilywiththe
PolishRomacommunityinLondon.ShesaysRomalivinginBritaincontinuetofacesignificantobstacles,mostnotably
inrelationtoeducationandhealth.However,IngmirefeelsthatnowthatmanyRomaareEUcitizensandabletowork
intheUK,thecommunityhasabetterchanceofflourishing.Shecomments:‘It’saconstantbattlewhenyou’re
seekingasylum.Concernsaboutyourimmigrationstatusovershadoweverything.There’snoroomforanythingelse,
noculturalspace.’
AlthoughmanyRomacontinuetoexperiencesignificantracialprejudice,Ingmirearguesthatitisthediversenatureof
BritishsocietythatdrawsmanyRomatothecountryandencouragesthemtostay.Shesays:‘Theyreallyappreciate
thesenseofanonymityinthiscountry.Thefactthattheycan[fit]intotheexistingmeltingpotisdefinitelyamagnet
forpeoplefromalloverEasternEurope.’
48 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

11.Futuremigrationflows
ItappearsthattherateatwhichA8migrantsarearrivingintheUKhasstartedtoslowdown.The
numberofapprovedWRSapplicationswas17percentlowerinthesecondhalfof2007thaninthe
secondhalfof2006(numbering104,370comparedwith126,205)(HomeOfficeetal2008a).Based
onourestimatesoftherealscaleofarrivalstotheUK,thiscouldmeanthatasmanyas30,000fewer
migrantsarrivedinthesecondhalfof2007thanthesecondhalfof2006.InIreland,too,whichhas
receivedanevengreaternumberofpost-enlargementmigrantsrelativetothecountry’sexisting
population,thetrendseemstobedownward.FewerPersonalPublicServicenumberswereissuedin
thefirstquarterof2008thaninthesamequarterin2007or2006(DepartmentofSocialandFamily
Affairs2008).
Thevastmajorityofpost-enlargementmigrantscometotheUKforeconomicreasons.Asthefinancial
pullandpushfactorsassociatedwithcomingtoworkintheUKshrink,thereductioninthenumberof
post-enlargementmigrantsislikelytocontinue,andwillprobablyaccelerate.
Accordingtooursurvey,theequivalentofaroundafifthofPolishmigrantsthathavereturnedto
PolandintendtocomebacktotheUKforatleastthreemonths.Basedonourcalculationthataround
541,000A8migrantworkersmayhavelefttheUKsinceMay2004,thissuggeststhataround108,000
migrantsmightintendtocomebacktotheUK.However,webelievethattheactualfigureislikelyto
besignificantlylowerasthesepotentialmigrantsdecidetostayintheirowncountrybecauseof
improvedjobprospectsthereorareattractedtoEUmemberstatesotherthantheUK.Twothirdsof
thereturneestoPolandwesurveyed(65percent)thinktheymadetherightdecisionin
goinghome.

Factorsinfluencingfutureflows
Whiletheprecedingpartsofthisreportconfirmthatthepost-enlargementmigrationflowstotheUK
havebeensignificant,inthissectionweoutlinefourfactorsthatarelikelytomeanthatfutureflows
arelesssignificant.Takentogetherwesuggestthatthesefactorswillleadto fewermigrantsfromthe
newEUmemberstatesarrivingintheUKand,asdiscussedinthenextsection, more ofthosewhoare
currentlyintheUKreturninghome.Becausethesefactorsarerelatedtothesendingcountries,the
outcomeisthatregardlessofwhathappensintheUKeconomyanddemandformigrantworkersin
theUK,thepoolofmigrantsavailabletotheUKmaybereduced.
1.Developmentinsendingcountries
Whileotherreasonsmayalsobeatplayinmanymigrants’decisiontocometotheUK,inthepastthe
significantdriverofpost-enlargementmigrationhasbeenfavourableeconomicconditionsintheUK
comparedwiththenewmemberstates.Aseconomicconditionsinthesendingcountriesgetbetter
relativetoreceivingcountriesliketheUK,whathasbeenapushfactorislikelytoweaken.Thereis
alreadyevidenceofthishappening.
TheeconomiesofCentralandEasternEuropehavealreadybenefitedhugelyfromtheirmembership
oftheEU,withGDPpercapitainalloftheA8andA2countriesincreasinglysignificantlysincejoining
(seeFigure25,nextpage).
Onarelatednote,inalmostallofthenewmemberstatesunemploymentrateshavefallen
substantiallysincejoiningtheEU(Figure26).Betteremploymentprospectsathomearelikelyto
discouragepotentialmigrantsfromleavingandexistingmigrantstoreturnhome.Giventhatthemost
significantdeclinesinunemploymentbetween2004and2007wereseenintheA8/A2countriesfrom
wherethelargestnumbersofmigrantsintheUKcome–Poland,whichexperiencedadeclineofnine
percentagepoints,andLithuaniaandSlovakia,bothwithdeclinesofsevenpercentagepoints–the
prospectoftherebeingmorejobsonofferintheseimportantsendingcountriesmaysignificantly
reducethesupplyofmigrantworkerstotheUK.OursurveyfoundthatfourintenPolishmigrants
whohavereturnedtoPoland(40percent)thinkthatbetteremploymentprospectsintheirhome
countrywouldencouragemoreoftheircompatriotslivingintheUKtoreturntoPolandforgood.
49 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure25.GDPpercapitaintheA8andA2countries,2001-2007
100
GDP per capita in annual Purchasing Power Standards (EU25=100)

90

80
Czech Republic

70 Estonia

60 Hungary

Latvia
50
Lithuania
40 Poland

30 Slovakia

Slovenia
20
Romania
10 Bulgaria

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source:Eurostat2007

Figure26.UnemploymentrateintheA8andA2countries,2001-2007
25
Unemployed as % of total economically active population

20
Czech Republic

Estonia

15 Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania
10 Poland

Slovakia

Slovenia
5
Romania

Bulgaria

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source:Eurostat2007

InDecember2007,thePolishConfederationofEmployers(KPP),estimatedthatthePolisheconomy
required250,000morequalifiedworkers,aquarterofwhomareneededintheconstructionsector
(WarsawBusinessJournal2007c).Thereisevidencethatconstructionisexperiencingaparticular
boominPolandasthecountryundertakeslarge-scalerenovationsofsportsfacilitiesandtransport
infrastructureinpreparationforhostingthe2012EuropeanFootballChampionships(Mostrousand
Seib2008).OursurveysuggeststhatPolesworkinginthisindustryhavealreadystartedtobe
attractedhome,withafifth(22percent)ofreturnedrespondentsworkinginconstruction.
50 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

ThereissomesuggestionthattheskillsshortageinPolandalsoextendstohigh-skilledjobs,thelack
ofwhichisgivenforanexplanationformanyA8andA2migrantscomingtotheUK.ACBOSstudy
publishedinOctober2007foundthatmanysmallbusinessesinPolandarestrugglingtorecruit
employees,especiallyprofessionals(WarsawBusinessJournal2007b).Fourintenmigrantsthathave
gonebacktoPoland(42percent)saidthatifthereweremoreworkinPolandthatwerebetter
matchedtoemployees’qualificationsthiswouldbeafactorthatwouldattractPolesbackhome.
LabourshortagesinPolandhaveledtoasharpincreaseinwagesoverthelastyear.Accordingtothe
British-PolishChamberofCommerce,averagewagesinPoland’sprivatesectorgrewby12.8percent
betweenFebruary2007andFebruary2008(British-PolishChamberofCommerce2008).Morethan
threequartersofthemigrantsthathadreturnedtoPolandquestionedinoursurvey(77percent)said
thatincreasedincomesinPolandwouldencouragePoleslivingintheUKtoreturnhomepermanently;
thiswasbyfarthemostcommonlycitedfactorthatreturneesfeelwouldencouragemoremigrantsin
theUKtocomehome.
Indeed,significanteffortshavebeenmadeinPolandtoattractitsworkershome.InSeptember2007
PresidentLechKaczy skipromisedtoimplementapackageofmeasurestoattractPolesbackhome
(WarsawBusinessJournal2007a).InanefforttoinformPolishemigrantsaboutthechanging
economicconditionsathome,thePolishMinistryofLabourandtheBritish-PolishChamberof
Commercelaunchedthe‘ReturntoPoland’website(www.wracajdopolski.pl/)inOctober2007.The
websiteprovidespotentialreturneeswithinformationaboutwagelevelsandadatabaseofjobs,and
postgraduateandlanguagecourses.Inthefirstthreemonthsof2008,thewebsitereceivedmorethan
16,000hitsfromvisitorsbasedintheUK(WracajdoPolski2008).
2.Diversiontoalternativedestinations
AkeydriverofthesignificantlevelofmigrationfromthenewaccessionstatestoBritainoverthelast
fouryearshasbeentherestrictionsplacedonthefreemovementofnationalsofthenewmember
statestootherexistingEUcountries.HadtraditionaldestinationsformigrantsfromCentraland
EasternEuropesuchasAustriaandGermanyhadlesserrestrictionsonnewaccessionmigrants,itis
verylikelythatsignificantlyfewermigrantswouldhavecometotheUK.
However,manymemberstateshaverelaxedrestrictionsonthemovementofA8workerssinceMay
2006,andallEUmembersmustliftallrestrictionsonA8nationalsbyApril2011andonA2nationals
bytheendof2013.Itisprobablethatastheserestrictionsarelifted,migrantswhomayhave
otherwisepotentiallycometotheUKwillbedivertedtomemberstatesclosertotheirhomecountries,
especiallywheremigrationroutesfromCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesarealreadywell
established.
ThereisevidencethatmemberstatesthathavealreadybeguntorelaxrestrictionsonA8nationals
haveseenanincreaseinthenumberofmigrantsarriving.TheoutflowofPolishmigrantstoFinland,
whichopeneditslabourmarkettoA8migrantsinMay2006,was329percenthigherin2006thanin
2005.ThenumberofmigrantsgoingtotheNetherlands,whichlifteditsrestrictionsonA8workersin
May2007,was180percenthigherinthethirdquarterof2007thanduringthesameperiodin2006.
Inthefirsthalfof2007theNetherlandsbecomethesixthmostpopulardestinationforemigrating
Poles,receivingsixpercentofemigrants.Evenmemberstatesthathavenotliftedtheirrestrictions
haveseenincreasesinthenumbersofPolishimmigrantsarriving.Betweenthesecondquarterof
2006andthesecondquarterof2007,therewerelargeincreasesinthenumbersofPolishmigrants
goingtoDenmark(300percent),France(50percent)andAustria(38percent)(Kepinska2007).
OursurveyfoundthatofthethirdofPolishmigrantsreturnedtoPolandwhointendtoliveoutsideof
Polandagaininthefuture,athirdintendedtoliveinEUcountriesotherthantheUK.Irelandwasthe
mostpopularpotentialdestinationamongthisgroup,butSweden,theNetherlandsandGermany
werealsocommonlymentioned.ABBCinvestigationintotrendsinPolishmigrationfoundthat
recruitmentagenciesinPolandhavestartedtoseeincreaseddemandforPolishworkersinotherEU
countries,especiallytheNetherlands,andadiversionofpotentialmigrantstothesecountriesrather
thantheUK(BBCRadio42008).
51 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Itmayalsobethecasethat,asotherWesternEuropeaneconomiesgrow,therelativeattractivenessof
theUKlabourmarketmayfall.Inrecentyears,thedemandforlabourintheUK,drivenbyhigh
growthandlowunemployment,wasmuchhigherthaninalmostallofthelargeexistingEUmember
states.ThiswillhavemadetheUKarelativelymoreattractivedestinationformanywould-be
migrants.Yet,ifotherexistingEUmemberstatescatchupwiththeUK,theinterestfromnewmember
statemigrantsmaywane.Indeed,itislikelythatanyfuturedownturnintheBritisheconomy
(especiallyrelativetootherEUmemberstates)willleadtoareductioninthenumberofeconomic
migrantsarrivingfromthenewEUmembersstates.
3.Demographicpatternsinsendingcountries
Asaconsequenceofdecliningbirthratesinthemid1980s,theproportionofthepopulationaged15
to24isshrinkinginthenewmemberstates,mostnotablyinPoland(seeFigure27).Theageprofile
ofpost-enlargementmigrantstoBritainhasbeenyounganditisthereforelikelytobethisagegroup
thatcontainsthepotentialmigrantsofthenextfewyears.Asaresult,thepoolofpeoplelikelyto
migratetotheUKisgettingsmallerandissettocontinuetodosointhecomingyears.

Figure27.Percentageofpopulationaged15-24outoftotalpopulation,2001-2006
20%

19%

18%
Poland
17%

16%
Rest of
A8/A2
15% countries

14% EU 25

13%

12% UK

11%

10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source:Eurostat2007

4.Devaluationofthepoundsterling
TherelativeattractivenessoftheBritisheconomyhasalsoalreadystartedtowaneformanynew
memberstatenationalsastheUK’scurrencyhasweakenedsignificantlyagainstthoseofmanynew
accessionstates,mostnotablythePolishZloty.AsFigure28shows(nextpage),whileinthefirst
quarterof2004,PolishworkerssendingmoneyhometorelativesorsavinginSterlingwouldreceive7
Zlotyper1GBP,bytheendof2007theyreceived5.2.Asthedifferencesbetweenpotentialearnings
athomeandinBritainnarrows,potentialmigrantsarelesslikelytoviewcomingtotheUKas
sufficientlyfinancialadvantageoustomakethemove,andthosealreadyintheUKaremorelikelyto
returnhome.OursurveyfoundthatalreadysevenpercentofPolescitenotbeingabletoearn
enoughmoneyintheUKasareasonforreturninghome.
WhiletheEurohasalsodevaluedagainstthecurrenciesofthenewmemberstates,ithasnotdoneso
tothesameextentassterling,withtheEuroworthjustoveroneZlotylessattheendof2007than
justpriortotheA8accession.Thistrendsuggeststhatthepullofalternativedestinationsinthe
EurozonemaybesignificantoncerestrictionsonA8andA2migrationtomorecountriesinthezone
arerelaxed.
52 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

Figure28.ExchangeratesbetweenpoundsterlingandA8/A2nationalcurrencyexchangerates,2001-2007
7.5

7.0 Lithuanian Litas New Polish Zloty


Currency value to the British Pound

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
02- 02- 02- 02- 03- 03- 03- 03- 04- 04- 04- 04- 05- 05- 05- 05- 06- 06- 06- 06- 07- 07- 07- 07-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Source:Eurostat2007andipprcalculations

Floodgatesorturnstiles?
So,therearealreadysignsthattheflowsofpost-enlargementmigrantsarestartingtoslowandare
likelytosloweverfurtherinthenearfuture.Thepropensityofthisgroupofmigrantstoreturnto
theirhomecountriesorgoelsewhereafterarelativelyshortperiodintheUKmaysetthemapartfrom
previouswavesofmigrants.Therefore,ratherthanEUenlargementcausinganopeningofthe
floodgates,itmaywellbethatthefreedomofmovementassociatedwithenlargementhasledtothe
creationofturnstiles.
Itisofcoursetruethatalthoughsixinten(59percent)ofthoseregisteringontheWRSsaysoon
afterarrivalthattheyintendtostayintheUKforthreemonthsorless(HomeOfficeetal 2008a),a
numberofsurveys,primarilyofPolishworkers,havefoundthatthemajorityofmigrantsextendtheir
stayinthecountryafterawhile.
Yet,thefindingsofsurveysofhowmanymigrantsarelikelytostayinBritainforsignificantperiods
diverge.
InJuly2007asurveyforthePolishdailynewspaperGazetaWyborczafoundthat55percentof
thoseworkingintheUKdefinitelyplantostayforthelongterm(Reuters2007).Incontrast,asurvey
conductedfortheCentreforInternationalRelationsinWarsawfoundthathalf(51percent)ofhigh-
skilledPolesinLondonwantedtoreturntoPoland(Iglicka2007).TheUniversityofSurrey’ssurveyof
PolesacrosstheUKin2006foundthatlessthanoneinseven(15percent)intendedtoremaininthe
UKpermanently,withonlyaoneinten(11percent)planningtostayformorethanfiveyears
(UniversityofSurrey2006).Thefindingthatthesurveyshaveincommonwitheachotheraswellas
withevidencefromtheWRSisthatasignificantproportionofmigrants(betweenaroundaquarter
andthird)donotknow howlongtheyintendtostay.
Polishmigrantsthathavereturnedhomeareevenlysplitovertheirviewofhowmanyoftheir
compatriotslivingintheUKwillreturnhome:26percentbelievemostwilleventuallycomehome;27
percentthinkabouthalfwillreturntoPoland;28percentthinkafewwillreturn;and19percentsay
thattheydonotknow.
WebelievethattheproportionofmigrantsthatwillstayintheUKinthelongtermis
likelytobeatthelowerendoftherangeofpredictions.
53 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

OursurveyfoundthatmostPolishmigrants’decisionstoreturnhomeweremotivatedbypersonaland
emotionalfactorsthatarelikelytooverridepeople’soriginalplannedlengthofstay.Asignificant
proportionofreturnedmigrantssaythatthetimetheychosetoreturnhomewaspre-planned.
Aroundoneinseven(14percent)saytheyintendedtoreturnhomeafteracertainamountoftime
andsimilarproportionsafterearningacertainamountofmoney(16percent)oraftertheirtemporary
orseasonalworkhadcometoanend(18percent).However,migrants’twomostcommonly-cited
reasonsforleavingarebecausetheymissedhome(36percent)andtore-joinfriendsandfamilyin
Poland(29percent).WhatevertheattractionofcomingtoBritainandmigrants’intentionstostay
whentheyfirstarrive,theymustperceivethebenefitsofremainingintheUKtooutweightheoften
considerablepullofreturninghomeiftheyaretostay.
Asoutlinedabove,theeconomicbenefitsofcomingtoworkintheUKarealreadylessapparentthan
atthetimeoftheA8accession.Astheresultsofthistrendbecomemoredeeplyapparent,many
migrantswillnotwishtocometoworkinBritain.Thehighproportionofmigrantswhoadopta‘wait
andsee’strategyinrelationtohowlongtheyintendtostayinthecountryareparticularlylikelyto
returnhomeasthefinancialbenefitsofremainingintheUKcontinuetodecline.
GiventhattheeconomicincentivestoremainintheUKarelikelytodecline,webelievemigrants
whosetiestotheUKextendbeyondthepurelyfinancialaremostlikelytostayinthelongterm.
ExamplesincludepeoplewhohavemetpartnersinBritain,thosewhoaredrawnbytheculturaland
socialattractionsoflivinghere,andthosewhohavesetupbusinesses.
Finally,itisworthnotingthatoneofthemostintriguingfuturepatternsofmigrationbetweentheUK
andthenewEUmemberstatesislikelytobethemovementofpeoplefromtheUKtothese
countries.ipprresearchin2006foundthatmorethan37,000BritishcitizenslivedintheA8andA2
countries(SriskandarajahandDrew2006).Withincreasedtrade,migration,informationandpersonal
linksbetweentheUKandnewmemberstates,thisnumberislikelytohavesignificantlyincreasedin
thetwoyearssincethatreport.Thereisalsoevidencetosuggestthatsomenewmemberstatesare
populardestinationsforholidayhomes,someofwhicheventuallybecomepermanenthomes.
Bulgaria,forexample,isthesecondmostpopularsourceofforeignpropertiesadvertisedonmajorUK
overseasrealestatewebsites(SriskandarajahandDrew2006).AsanageingUKpopulationseeks
relativelycheaperplacesforretirement,‘silverflight’toCentralandEasternEuropeissettorise.
54 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

12.Conclusion
TheevidencepresentedinthisreportconfirmsthatmigrationfromthenewEUmemberstatestothe
UKhasbeenoneofthemostimportantsocialphenomenainrecentyears:someonemillionworkers
havearrivedfromtheA8countries,thestockofA8/A2nationalsintheUKhasincreasedby548,000,
andPoleshavegonefrom13thtofirstlargestforeignnationalgroupallinthespaceoffouryears.
Thismigrationislikelytoprovetobeoneofthemostconcentratedvoluntarymigrationsintheworld
today.Alargenumberofpeoplehavemovedontheirownvolition(thatis,notforreasonsofdisaster,
conflictandsoonathome)overarelativelyshortperiod,andmanyhavealreadymovedbackhome
ormovedonelsewhere.
Whilethescaleofpost-enlargementmigrationisundoubtedlyimportant,sotooareitsimpacts.
However,weknowlittleoftheseimpactsasyet.

Impactsformigrants
Forthemigrantsthemselves,movingtotheUKhasprovidedanopportunitytoearnmoney,learnnew
skillsandtheEnglishlanguage,andgenerallybroadenhorizons.Manyofthosewesurveyedhadhad
apositiveexperienceintheUK,manyofthosewhohadreturnedtoPolandwerehappyabouttheir
choicetodoso,andasizeableproportionwereplanningonmovingagain.Thismobility,or‘super
mobility’aswecallitelsewhere(Rutteretal 2008),hasthepotentialtoenrichlivesinmaterialand,as
oursurveyshowed,otherways.Indeed,fromthepointofviewofmigrantscertainly,theenlargement
oftheEuropeanUnionhasbeenaresoundingsuccess,presentingnewopportunitiesthatwere
unthinkableevenadecadeagoinmanyofthenewmemberstatesbeforetheiraccession.

ImpactsfortheUK
FortheUK,theimpactsaremoredifficulttogaugebutthereismountingevidencethatthe
experienceofreceivingaccessionmigrantshassofarbeenapositiveone,atleastineconomicterms.
A8migrationisthoughttohavereducedinflationandloweredthenaturalrateofunemployment
(Blanchfloweretal 2007),easedbottlenecksinthelabourmarket,increasedtheflexibilityofthe
labourforce,easedinflationarypressurepointsontheeconomy(ErnstandYoungITEMClub2006),
andhadnodiscerniblenegativeimpactonunemploymentintheUK(Gilpinetal 2006).Thatthese
workersseemtobehighlymobileacrosstheUK,movingtothesectorsandregionswherethereis
work,isalsolikelytohaveaidedregionaldevelopmentandpreventedlabourshortagesinkeysectors
andthosesuchasagriculturethatfindithardtoattractlocalworkers.
ThereisalsonodenyingthatthepresenceofA8andA2nationals,andthetradeandinvestmentlinks
theybringwiththem,hasimplicationsfortheUKeconomy.Oneestimatesuggeststhatthe‘Polish
pound’isworthmorethan£4billionperyeartotheUKeconomy(CentreforEconomicsandBusiness
Research2007).Thisexpendituregoesbeyondthe‘Polishdeli’businessestomainstreamgoodsand
services.Forexample,125,000currentaccountswereopenedbyPoleswithLloydsTSBalonein2006
(Sherwood2007).Also,tradeinbothdirectionsbetweenthenewaccessioncountriesandtheUKhas
increasedsincetheexpansionoftheEU.ThevalueoftheUK’sexportstoPolandincreasedbyjust
under40percentbetween2004and2007,andthevalueofexportstotherestoftheA8countries
increasedby35percent.MigrantsreturningfromBritainarelikelytoassistinthecontinuedgrowth
oftradelinksastheymaintainbusinessandpersonalconnectionswiththecountrywhentheyare
backintheirhomeland(ONS2007).
Giventhatpost-enlargementmigrantshaveoverwhelminglybeenyoung,singleandinwork,their
impactontheUK’spublicpurseisalsolikelytohavebeenpositive.Althoughmostearnlowwagesin
per-hourterms,theytendtoworklonghoursandendupmakingimportanttaxcontributionswhile
notmakingverygreatuseofpublicservices.Forexample,onesurveyofA8migrantsfoundthat90
percenthadnotusedmedicalorhealthservicesduringtheirstayinScotland(FifeResearch
CoordinationGroup2008).
However,astherecentinquirybytheHouseofLordsSelectCommitteeonEconomicAffairs(2008)
showed,itisverydifficulttofindanydiscernibleoveralleconomicimpactsofmigration.Muchmore
55 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

workisneededtobuildtheevidencebaseandtoanalysetheimpactsofpost-enlargementmigration
intermsofkeyeconomicfactors.Wehopethatthisreporthelpsinthisprocessandippritselfis
committed,especiallythroughtheremainderoftheEconomicsofMigrationproject,toconduct
furtherdetailedanalysis.Butforthemeantime,concludinganythingaboutthewidersocialand
politicalimpactsintheUKofpost-enlargementmigrationisbeyondthescopeofthisreport.

Impactsforsendingcountries
Forthesendingcountries,thepictureissimilarlyunclear.But,heretoo,theremayhavebeen
importantbenefitsintermsofeasingdomesticunemploymentpressures,creatingnewopportunities,
buildingtrade,remittancesandmigrantsreturningwithnewskillsandnetworks.Whileconcernsabout
braindrainandlabourshortagesinthesesendingcountriesmaybeimportant,onbalanceitmaywell
bethatlarge-scaletemporaryandcircularmigrationimmediatelyafteraccessionmayhaveprovideda
much-neededboosttoeconomicandsocialdevelopment.Indeed,recentlabourmobilitymayhave
beenanimportantfactorinallowingtheeconomiesofthenewmemberstatestocatchupwiththose
intherestoftheEU.

Changesinthefuture
Onethingthatislessclear,andwhichrarelyfeaturesinpublicorevenpolicydiscussionsofpost-
enlargementmigration,iswhatislikelytohappentotheseflowsinthefuture.Asdiscussedinthe
previoussection,webelievethattheevidencesuggeststhattheUKwillreceivefewernewmigrants
fromthesecountries,thatmoreofthosealreadyherewillreturntotheirhomecountriesorgo
elsewhere,andthatthosewhoremainwillmoveupthelabourmarket.Indeed,itwillbeamatterof
when migrationflowsstartreversing,notiftheywill.
WepredictthatgrossarrivalsfromA8andA2countrieswillfallwithinthenextfewyears,withthe
totalstockstagnatingorevenfallingslightlyasaresultofsustainedemigration.Wealsopredictthat
thesocio-economicprofileofthoseA8andA2nationalswhodoremainintheUKwillstartto
resembletheUK-bornpattern(forexample,averagewageswillstarttoriseandover-representationin
sectorssuchasagriculturewillreduce).
WhilethepublicdiscourseisalmostexclusivelyaboutthearrivalofA8andA2nationals(andhowfar
removedfromrealitytheGovernment’spredictionsaboutnumbersofarrivalswere),webelievethat
themoreimportantissuewillbeabouthowtorespondeffectivelytothechangesthatarelikelyto
happen.
Forexample,if,aswesuggest,theA8andA2migrantswhodostaybehindtendtobethebetter
qualifiedandmoreaspirational,theUKmaynotbeabletocontinuetorelyonthereadysupplyof
workerspreparedtomovearoundthecountrydoingjobsthatmostBritishpeopleareunableor
unwillingtodo.Thistrendraisesthespectreoflabourshortagesandincreasedoff-shoringofBritish
businesses,particularlyinsectorssuchasmanufacturingandagriculture,inwhichmanyemployerssay
theirbusinesseswouldhavehadtocloseorrelocatetootherpartsoftheworldiftheyhadnotbeen
abletoemploylargenumbersofpost-enlargementmigrantsoverthelastfouryears.Italsohas
implicationsforhowtheUKdesignsitsmigrationpolicies,particularlyintermsofthebalancebetween
EUandnon-EUinflows.
Putanotherway,theevidencepresentedheresuggeststhattheUKGovernment’scurrentassumption
thattheUK’sneedsforlow-skilledmigrantworkerswillbesufficientlymetbysupplyfromthenew
EUmemberstateswillnotholdtrueformuchlonger,unlessofcoursetheEUexpandsagain.
Webelieveitisimportantthatresearchersandpolicymakersunderstandthedifferencesbetween
thesemigrationpatternsandpreviouswavesofimmigration.Thereisariskthatpolicymakersmaynot
realisequicklyenoughthatwearenowseeingaprimarilycircularmigrationphenomenon–with
differentimplicationsfrompreviousmigration–andstillactonthepresumptionthatnewmigrants
willbehavesimilarlytopreviousmigrants.Ifwetakethelabourmarketprojectionsdiscussedabove,it
couldbethecasethattheassumptionthatA8andA2migrantswillcontinuetoarriveorremainin
largenumbersmayleadtocomplacencyaroundattractingmigrantsfromotherpartsoftheworldin
56 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

thefuture.Inotherwords,bythetimetheA8/A2taprunsdry,theUKmaynotbeabletoreact
quicklyenoughtogetthemigrantworkerstheeconomyneeds.
Thecircularityofthesemigrationflowsmayalsohaveimplicationsforpublicservicedelivery.For
example,whilesomepublicservicesinpartsoftheUK,unusedtolargenumbersofmigrants,maybe
strugglingtodeliverservicestoagrowingandincreasinglydiversepopulation,theseproblemsmaybe
short-livedasmigrantsmoveout.
ThefactthatlargenumbersofA8andA2nationalsmovedsoonafterEUaccessionbutmaynow
slowlybemovingbackhomemaysupportthehypothesisfrequentlymadeinthemigrationliterature
thatlowerbarrierstomobilityleadtolesspermanentmigrationinthelongterm.Inotherwords,while
previouswavesofimmigrantstotheUKendedupsettlingintheUKbecauseleavingandcoming
backwouldhavebeendifficult,contemporarymigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstatesmaybefar
morewillingtomovearoundfromplacetoplacebecausetheyhavemoresecureresidencyrights.
Finally,itisalsoimportantthatpoliticaldiscussionsofthisrecentmigrationreflectthetruenatureof
thepatterns.ThereisariskthatconcernsandanxietiesaboutmigrationtotheUKarebasedinalarge
partaroundtherecentarrivalsofA8andA2nationals.Yetmanyoftheseconcernsarebasedonthe
assumptionthatmostofthesearrivalsarestillhere,thatmorewillcomeandthatmanywillstay.This
reportsuggeststhatnoneoftheseassumptionsmayholdwater.
57 ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK

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61 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Appendix A. WRS registrations by region of employer 2004-2007

2004 2005 2006 2007 Total


29,930 31,690 29,250 112,785
21,915
Anglia
(15%) (14%) (14%) (15%)
(17%)
11,710 26,755 33,155 29,175 100,795
Midlands
(9%) (13%) (15%) (14%) (13%)
23,460 21,495 20,850 91,275
25,470
London
(20%)
(11%) (9%) (10%) (12%)
9,060 21,405 25,460 21,535 77,460
North East
(7%) (10%) (11%) (10%) (10%)
13,885 20,640 21,315 19,285 75,125
Central
(11%) (10%) (9%) (9%) (10%)
7,675 19,135 23,875 20,665 71,350
North West
(6%) (9%) (10%) (10%) (9%)
9,700 18,150 21,360 18,965 68,175
South West
(8%) (9%) (9%) (9%) (9%)
8,150 15,895 19,050 19,345 62,440
Scotland (8%)
(6%) (8%) (8%) (9%)
11,200 13,670 13,325 12,790 50,985
South East (7%)
(9%) (7%) (6%) (6%)
3,660 8,845 8,970 8,335 29,810
Northern
Ireland
(3%) (4%) (4%) (4%) (4%)
2,430 5,490 6,875 5,940 20,735
Wales
(2%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (3%)

125,880 204,970 227,875 206,965


Total 765,690

Source: Home Office 2008a


62 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Appendix B. WRS registrations and estimated current A8 stock by local


authority

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
City of London 3,590 7,800 306
Boston 7,875 58,300 90
Westminster 19,275 231,900 55
Northampton 14,250 200,100 47
South Holland 5,195 82,100 42
Peterborough 9,995 163,300 41
Fenland 4,760 90,100 35
Dungannon 2,735 52,300 35
Herefordshire, County of 9,285 177,800 35
East Cambridgeshire 4,115 79,600 34
Luton 8,225 186,800 29
Perth and Kinross 6,115 140,200 29
Corby 2,330 54,800 28
Camden 9,415 227,500 28
King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,875 142,300 27
Isles of Scilly 80 2,100 25
Welwyn Hatfield 3,905 105,500 25
Cookstown 1,190 34,800 23
Breckland 4,205 128,300 22
Slough 3,835 119,500 21
Crewe and Nantwich 3,660 115,800 21
West Somerset 1,100 35,300 21
Angus 3,370 109,300 21
Gedling 3,395 111,700 20
Magherafelt 1,265 42,400 20
Hammersmith and Fulham 5,045 171,400 20
Craigavon 2,485 86,800 19
Ballymena 1,755 61,400 19
Arun 4,040 145,700 18
Penwith 1,715 64,400 18
Cambridge 3,120 117,900 18
Newry and Mourne 2,460 93,400 18
Southampton 5,995 228,600 17
Wrexham 3,430 131,000 17
Stratford-on-Avon 2,985 116,100 17
Chichester 2,740 108,900 17
Armagh 1,415 56,800 17
South Oxfordshire 3,150 128,100 16
Highland 5,290 215,300 16
Antrim 1,255 51,500 16
Wellingborough 1,805 75,500 16
Ealing 7,030 306,400 15
North Warwickshire 1,425 62,300 15
63 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
West Wiltshire 2,815 124,800 15
West Lancashire 2,475 109,800 15
Redditch 1,780 79,500 15
Nottingham 6,400 286,400 15
Wychavon 2,580 116,300 15
Gravesham 2,145 97,400 15
East Staffordshire 2,360 107,700 15
Kensington and Chelsea 3,850 178,000 14
Leicester 6,120 289,700 14
Cheltenham 2,350 111,500 14
Swale 2,700 128,500 14
Newport 2,915 140,100 14
St Albans 2,685 131,300 14
Hillingdon 5,015 250,000 13
Fermanagh 1,210 60,600 13
Lincoln 1,740 87,600 13
North Kesteven 2,045 103,200 13
Chester 2,360 119,700 13
Bedford 3,050 154,700 13
Reading 2,790 142,800 13
Southwark 5,180 269,200 13
Dartford 1,700 89,900 13
Wakefield 6,025 321,200 12
Omagh 955 51,000 12
Calderdale 3,685 198,500 12
Oxford 2,765 149,100 12
Aberdeenshire 4,330 236,300 12
Runnymede 1,485 81,200 12
Coleraine 1,035 56,700 12
Carmarthenshire 3,235 178,000 12
Kingston upon Hull, City of 4,640 256,200 12
Stroud 1,995 110,300 12
Lichfield 1,745 96,700 12
Selby 1,440 79,800 12
Belfast 4,790 267,400 12
Edinburgh, City of 8,210 463,500 12
Bournemouth 2,835 161,200 12
Poole 2,380 136,900 12
Trafford 3,635 211,800 11
Tunbridge Wells 1,785 104,600 11
Forest Heath 1,045 62,100 11
Ipswich 2,010 120,400 11
Bradford 8,165 493,100 11
Newark and Sherwood 1,815 111,700 11
Blackpool 2,300 142,700 11
South Hams 1,340 83,200 11
64 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Hounslow 3,510 218,600 11
Windsor and Maidenhead 2,225 138,800 11
Islington 2,965 185,500 11
Rugby 1,440 90,200 11
Ryedale 840 52,900 11
South Kesteven 2,060 130,100 11
Blackburn with Darwen 2,230 141,200 11
South Ribble 1,680 106,400 11
West Oxfordshire 1,570 100,200 10
Aberdeen City 3,195 206,900 10
Norwich 1,970 129,500 10
Barnet 4,910 328,600 10
South Lakeland 1,565 104,800 10
Taunton Deane 1,600 107,400 10
Eden 765 51,700 10
Scottish Borders 1,615 110,200 10
North Norfolk 1,465 100,600 10
Suffolk Coastal 1,770 122,200 10
Halton 1,730 119,500 10
Brent 3,885 271,400 10
New Forest 2,470 173,700 9
Doncaster 4,090 290,300 9
Derby 3,290 236,300 9
Manchester 6,245 452,000 9
Tower Hamlets 2,935 212,800 9
Huntingdonshire 2,295 166,600 9
Watford 1,095 79,600 9
Telford and Wrekin 2,215 161,900 9
Maidstone 1,945 142,800 9
Kerrier 1,330 98,000 9
Mansfield 1,330 99,900 9
Crawley 1,320 99,900 9
Sedgemoor 1,465 111,000 9
South Bucks 840 63,700 9
Lancaster 1,880 143,000 9
North Lincolnshire 2,080 159,000 9
Cherwell 1,790 137,400 9
West Berkshire 1,915 148,800 9
Hertsmere 1,220 96,000 8
Harrow 2,725 214,600 8
Christchurch 570 45,000 8
Basingstoke and Deane 2,005 158,700 8
East Lindsey 1,740 138,500 8
Argyll and Bute 1,140 91,400 8
North Cornwall 1,055 85,300 8
Brighton and Hove 3,095 251,400 8
65 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Hastings 1,055 86,100 8
Tewkesbury 955 78,800 8
Coventry 3,700 306,600 8
Milton Keynes 2,695 224,800 8
Glasgow City 6,925 580,700 8
Uttlesford 850 71,400 8
Daventry 930 78,200 8
West Lothian 1,970 165,700 8
Surrey Heath 970 82,400 8
Mid Devon 875 74,500 8
Haringey 2,640 225,700 8
Shetland Islands 255 21,900 8
Bassetlaw 1,270 111,400 8
Harrogate 1,790 157,800 8
Richmond upon Thames 2,030 179,500 8
Merton 2,205 197,700 7
Braintree 1,550 139,700 7
Fife 3,970 358,900 7
Bristol, City of 4,515 410,500 7
East Riding of Yorkshire 3,625 330,900 7
Canterbury 1,600 146,200 7
Wokingham 1,680 153,800 7
Dover 1,160 106,400 7
Wandsworth 3,025 279,000 7
Mole Valley 870 80,500 7
Kirklees 4,295 398,200 7
Leeds 8,065 750,200 7
Flintshire 1,610 150,100 7
Broxbourne 950 88,900 7
Ashford 1,185 111,200 7
Tonbridge and Malling 1,210 113,900 7
South Shropshire 445 42,300 7
Shepway 1,045 99,600 7
Lisburn 1,180 112,900 7
Moray 905 86,800 7
Stoke-on-Trent 2,490 239,700 7
Merthyr Tydfil 575 55,500 7
Limavady 355 34,300 7
Elmbridge 1,340 129,500 7
Gloucester 1,170 113,200 7
Exeter 1,235 119,600 7
South Cambridgeshire 1,395 135,400 7
Stirling 900 87,800 7
Hackney 2,125 208,400 7
Walsall 2,595 254,500 7
South Somerset 1,575 156,700 7
66 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Cotswold 835 83,200 7
Worcester 935 93,400 7
Vale Royal 1,260 126,000 7
Allerdale 940 94,300 7
Medway 2,490 251,700 7
Berwick-upon-Tweed 255 26,000 7
Aylesbury Vale 1,670 172,000 6
Dacorum 1,340 138,400 6
North Shropshire 565 59,500 6
Sandwell 2,720 287,600 6
East Hampshire 1,035 110,100 6
Torbay 1,240 133,200 6
Preston 1,220 132,000 6
Stafford 1,140 123,400 6
Test Valley 1,045 113,600 6
Hambleton 790 86,300 6
North Devon 835 91,500 6
South Gloucestershire 2,315 254,400 6
Eilean Siar 240 26,400 6
Fylde 685 75,700 6
Birmingham 9,040 1,006,500 6
Mendip 960 108,300 6
North West Leicestershire 790 89,600 6
North Somerset 1,775 201,400 6
Midlothian 695 79,300 6
Warrington 1,700 194,000 6
Wolverhampton 2,070 236,600 6
Hart 775 88,800 6
Malvern Hills 640 73,900 6
St Edmundsbury 880 101,900 6
Richmondshire 440 51,000 6
Kettering 750 87,900 6
Sefton 2,360 277,400 6
Harborough 685 81,300 6
Ribble Valley 485 57,800 6
Dundee City 1,185 142,200 6
Winchester 915 110,000 6
Banbridge 375 45,500 5
Southend-on-Sea 1,300 159,900 5
Bolton 2,115 262,400 5
Redbridge 2,020 251,900 5
Newcastle-under-Lyme 990 123,800 5
North East Lincolnshire 1,270 158,900 5
Chiltern 720 90,300 5
Nuneaton and Bedworth 960 120,700 5
Derbyshire Dales 555 69,800 5
67 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Woking 720 90,700 5
Liverpool 3,460 436,100 5
Enfield 2,260 285,300 5
Castle Morpeth 390 49,500 5
Ballymoney 230 29,200 5
Sevenoaks 890 113,700 5
South Bedfordshire 915 117,000 5
Cardiff 2,480 317,500 5
Weymouth and Portland 505 64,900 5
Salisbury 895 115,300 5
Bracknell Forest 870 112,200 5
Plymouth 1,920 248,100 5
Kingston upon Thames 1,200 155,900 5
West Dorset 740 96,200 5
Portsmouth 1,500 196,400 5
Eastbourne 720 94,900 5
Derwentside 655 86,500 5
Restormel 770 101,900 5
Waltham Forest 1,675 221,700 5
Swindon 1,405 186,600 5
Horsham 965 128,300 5
Craven 415 55,500 5
Shrewsbury and Atcham 715 95,900 5
Salford 1,625 218,000 5
Epping Forest 905 122,900 5
Newcastle upon Tyne 1,990 270,500 5
North Dorset 490 66,700 5
North Hertfordshire 890 121,500 5
West Devon 375 51,200 5
Reigate and Banstead 950 129,800 5
Lambeth 1,990 272,000 5
Mid Suffolk 670 92,000 5
Rotherham 1,830 253,300 5
Babergh 625 86,700 5
Purbeck 325 45,200 5
Isle of Wight 995 138,500 5
Guildford 950 133,100 5
East Lothian 660 92,800 5
Greenwich 1,580 222,600 5
Ards 540 76,200 5
Macclesfield 1,065 150,600 5
Ellesmere Port & Neston 575 81,800 5
Newtownabbey 570 81,200 5
Newham 1,705 248,400 5
Bath and North East Somerset 1,190 175,600 5
Tendring 975 144,600 4
68 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Warwick 895 132,900 4
Colchester 1,150 170,800 4
Mid Bedfordshire 885 132,200 4
Thanet 860 128,600 4
Vale of White Horse 780 117,100 4
Harlow 520 78,100 4
East Devon 870 131,100 4
East Northamptonshire 555 84,000 4
Croydon 2,225 337,000 4
Strabane 255 39,100 4
Tandridge 530 81,300 4
Wycombe 1,050 161,300 4
Kennet 505 78,200 4
East Hertfordshire 850 132,600 4
Dumfries and Galloway 945 148,000 4
Thurrock 950 148,900 4
West Lindsey 550 86,500 4
Darlington 630 99,300 4
Down 430 68,300 4
North Lanarkshire 2,035 323,800 4
Falkirk 935 149,700 4
Pendle 560 90,100 4
Tamworth 465 75,400 4
Pembrokeshire 720 117,300 4
Fareham 660 108,400 4
Wyre Forest 595 98,200 4
Waverley 705 116,800 4
Forest of Dean 490 81,700 4
York 1,150 191,800 4
Carlisle 610 103,300 4
Rutland 225 38,300 4
Torridge 375 64,200 4
Renfrewshire 990 169,600 4
Three Rivers 490 85,500 4
Teignbridge 715 125,500 4
Bridgend 745 132,600 4
Conwy 625 111,300 4
Great Yarmouth 520 93,400 4
Stevenage 440 79,300 4
Lewes 520 93,900 4
Rossendale 365 66,700 4
Moyle 90 16,500 4
Wirral 1,690 311,200 4
Spelthorne 490 90,500 4
Carrick 490 91,300 4
Gwynedd 630 118,300 4
69 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Rochdale 1,095 206,500 4
South Northamptonshire 465 88,800 3
Melton 255 48,900 3
Mid Sussex 670 129,100 3
Powys 680 131,100 3
Solihull 1,050 203,000 3
Staffordshire Moorlands 480 95,300 3
Scarborough 545 108,300 3
Castlereagh 325 65,600 3
Bridgnorth 255 51,800 3
North Wiltshire 640 130,400 3
Sheffield 2,560 525,800 3
South Lanarkshire 1,460 307,700 3
Congleton 435 92,400 3
Alnwick 150 32,000 3
Hinckley and Bosworth 485 103,800 3
Derry City 500 107,900 3
Stockport 1,285 280,600 3
Chelmsford 730 162,800 3
Denbighshire 430 96,100 3
Maldon 275 61,700 3
St. Helens 790 177,600 3
Ceredigion 340 77,200 3
South Derbyshire 390 89,800 3
Basildon 730 168,600 3
Wigan 1,320 305,500 3
Tameside 915 214,400 3
Wear Valley 260 62,300 3
Barnsley 930 223,500 3
Rushcliffe 450 108,200 3
Bromsgrove 375 91,600 3
Brentwood 290 70,900 3
Dudley 1,240 305,300 3
Rushmoor 360 88,700 3
Eastleigh 480 119,000 3
Gateshead 765 190,500 3
Caradon 325 83,300 3
Hyndburn 320 82,200 3
Worthing 380 98,700 3
Ashfield 445 115,700 3
Lewisham 980 255,700 3
Wealden 525 143,700 2
East Dorset 310 85,000 2
Chorley 375 103,700 2
Bury 660 182,900 2
East Ayrshire 430 119,300 2
70 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Epsom and Ewell 250 69,600 2
Orkney Islands 70 19,800 2
Burnley 310 88,000 2
Charnwood 555 162,400 2
Waveney 395 116,800 2
Rother 295 87,600 2
Havering 760 227,300 2
High Peak 305 92,000 2
South Staffordshire 350 106,200 2
Amber Valley 395 120,000 2
Tynedale 195 59,500 2
Oswestry 130 39,700 2
Broadland 400 122,200 2
Oldham 715 219,600 2
Sutton 600 184,400 2
North Down 255 78,700 2
South Norfolk 375 116,200 2
Durham 295 92,200 2
Swansea 725 227,100 2
Broxtowe 345 110,400 2
Cannock Chase 290 94,300 2
Monmouthshire 270 87,900 2
Teesdale 75 24,800 2
Bromley 900 299,100 2
Chesterfield 295 100,500 2
Blaby 265 92,500 2
Oadby and Wigston 160 56,500 2
Adur 170 60,300 2
Barking and Dagenham 465 165,700 2
Blyth Valley 225 81,200 2
Erewash 300 110,400 2
Sedgefield 235 87,700 2
Clackmannanshire 130 48,900 2
East Renfrewshire 230 89,300 2
Bolsover 190 73,900 2
Havant 300 116,800 2
Knowsley 380 151,300 2
Easington 230 94,000 2
North East Derbyshire 235 97,700 2
Stockton-on-Tees 450 189,100 2
Sunderland 660 280,600 2
Rochford 190 81,100 2
South Ayrshire 255 111,700 2
Middlesbrough 310 138,400 1
Bexley 490 221,600 1
The Vale of Glamorgan 260 123,300 1
71 ippr | Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Number of A8
workers per 1,000
Approved WRS residents based on
applications May our estimate of
2004-December 2006 population current A8 stock*
Local authority 2007 estimate
Castle Point 185 88,600 1
Copeland 135 70,300 1
Gosport 150 78,200 1
Wyre 210 110,400 1
Inverclyde 150 81,500 1
North Ayrshire 240 135,500 1
Carrickfergus 70 39,700 1
East Dunbartonshire 185 105,500 1
Blaenau Gwent 120 69,300 1
Hartlepool 150 91,100 1
Isle of Anglesey 110 68,900 1
North Tyneside 310 195,000 1
Rhondda, Cynon, Taff 370 233,900 1
Torfaen 125 91,000 1
Caerphilly 235 171,300 1
Neath Port Talbot 185 137,100 1
Barrow-in-Furness 75 71,800 1
West Dunbartonshire 95 91,200 1
Larne 30 31,300 1
Redcar and Cleveland 115 139,500 1
South Tyneside 105 151,000 0
Chester-le-Street 35 53,200 0
Wansbeck 35 61,700 0

Source: Home Office 2008c and ONS with ippr calculations

*Our estimate of the current A8 stock is based on the assumptions outlined earlier in the report; that the
WRS underestimates the actual level of worker registration by 33 per cent; and that 50 per cent of A8
migrants who have arrived since May 2004 are no longer in the UK.