WEEKLY MCX NEWSLETTER

30 DEC. 2013 TO 04 JAN.2014

TH TH

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MARKET WRAP

BULLION:
With the US adding just 16200 jobs in the nonfarm sector, the futures of crude oil closed lower on the Nymex on Friday. The data stoked gold futures higher and pulled the commodity out of a distress position and helped it cross the $1300 mark. Earlier this week we saw economic data that pointed towards a recovery, and that coupled with a strong dollar kept gold under pressure, Tom Power, a senior commodity broker at R.J. OBrien & Associates in Chicago said to Bloomberg. Gold had gone below the crucial support of $1300 following optimism about the US economy. Meanwhile data suggested that US unemployment rate touched 7.4% in July, according to US labour department. However, the data was not enough to propel crude oil futures further up even as some profit booking too took place. WTI crude oil for delivery on September 13 closed at $106.85/bl, registering a loss of $1.04 or 0.96%. Brent crude oil for delivery on the same date closed at $108.93/bl, notifying a loss of $0.61 or 0.56%. "We've got a pullback from the jobs data, but I suspect we are also seeing some profit-taking before the weekend," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities in New York to Reuters. "That said, we are still trading at historically high levels. I wouldn't be surprised if we tested $110, although that won't happen today," he noted. On Indias MCX, crude oil for delivery on August 19 was seen trading at Rs.6524 a barrel, a loss of 0.05% as of 10.41 AM IST, Saturday. Gold futures for delivery on October 5 were seen trading at Rs.28460 per 10 grams, a loss of 0.12%.

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ENERGY:
Crude oil prices in the global market were seen trading positive on strong manufacturing data from Europe, the United States and China. Also, Middle East tensions, disruption to crude oil production in Africa and and maintenance activity in the North Sea were seen supporting the crude oil prices to certain extent. Concerns over supply disruptions in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria were also supported the prices. Brent crude oil futures traded above $110 per barrel while US crude oil futures crossed $108 per barrel on Friday. US crude oil futures for September delivery on NYMEX was seen trading down by 0.19% at $107.54 per barrel as of 05.41 PM IST on Friday. Meanwhile, The UK Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the construction sector offers new hope that the UK economy is improving. UK recorded a strongest construction output growth since June 2010, led by surge in housing activity. The UK Markit/CIPS rose to 57.0 in July up sharply from last month's 51.0, according to the data released by Charted Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) on Friday (Image Courtesy: Suwatpo Miles www.freedigitalphotos.net).

BASE METAL:
The trend in copper futures for August delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is bullish and expected to trade with the trend for the day, according to our analyst at Commodity Online. For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 425.05 and 422.25 levels while resistance is seen at 432.65 and 434.35 levels, said John Godson, Technical Analyst at Commodity Online. MCX copper futures for August delivery was seen trading up by 1.14% at Rs.430.50 per kilogram as of 16.38 IST on Friday. Copper futures on Comex edged up on Friday and is seen trading bullish supported by firm global cues. Copper futures for September delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading up by 0.63% at $ 3.185 per pound as of 04.51 PM IST on Friday. On Friday, copper touched to its peak level in more than a week as data releases from the United States, Europe and China shown a positive review on their respective economies. US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its data on Non Farm payrolls, Private Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate at 06.00 PM IST today. Base metal traders may get clues for their further trading from the data released.

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TECHNICAL VIEW

BULLION
GOLD (5 FEB.):
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE

RESISTANCE : - 28900, 29400 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 28000, 27600 : - SELL ON HIGH

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SILVER (05 MAR.):

OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE

RESISTANCE : - 45700, 46000 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 44700, 44000 : - SELL ON HIGH

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ENERGY
CRUDEOIL (20 JAN.):
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE

RESISTANCE : - 6320, 6400 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 6150, 6050 : - BUY ON DIPS

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BASE METAL
COPPER (28 FEB.)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDASTE

RESISTANCE : - 473.50, 482 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 461, 456 : - SELL O HIGH

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INTERNATIONAL MARKET

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS PALLADIUM PLATINUM

1212.80 20.030 3.380 100.20 4.330 709.80 1375.20

USDINR EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD

62.3200 01.3740 105.1500 00.8910 01.6470 01.0705

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ECONOMIC CALANDER

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PIVOT TABLE

SCRIPT

R3

R2

R1

S1

S2

S3

GOLD SILVER CRUDEOIL COPPER

29200

28950

28750

28500

28300

28050

27850

47200 6450 493

46200 6350 483

45700 6300 475.50

44700 6200 466

44150 6150 458.50

43200 6050 449

42650 6000 441

LEAD

154

149.50

145

140

135.50

131

126.50

ZINC

145

140

135.50

130.50

125.50

121

116

ALIMINUM

115.50

112.50

111.50

108.50

106.50

103.50

102

NICKEL NATURAL GAS

917.50 289

907 285

892 279

881.50 275

866.50 269

856 265

841.50 259

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