International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 1, No. 5, Pp. 186-190, Nov. 2011.

Manuscript
Received:
17,Jun., 2011
Revised:
7, Sep., 2011
Accepted:
15,Nov., 2011
Published:
15,Dec., 2011
Keywords
new energy
vehicles,
rough sets,
whitenization
weight
function,
grey
evaluation.
AbstractAccording to the present
development of new energy vehicles, the risk
of the new energy vehicles project is analyzed,
the risk evaluation index system is established
and the rough sets theory is used to reduce
the index system in this paper; and
exponential whitenization weight function
under grey uncertain character of the
assessment information is constructed; then
the improved grey hierarchy evaluation
method is used to appraise the
implementation of the risk of new energy
vehicles project in Henan province; finally,
based on the comprehensive value the risk of
implementing new energy vehicles project is
advanced .The risk is relatively large at
present. And there are some proposals for
further development.


1. Introduction
As we all know, Henan province holds large resource
gross, but in terms of per capital resource, it is a laggard one
in China. With the development of Henans economy, the
contradiction between economic growth and restraint of
energy is increasingly intensifying, and environmental
pollution caused by pollutants emitted becomes more and
more serious. Nowadays, the energy consumption in the
word is mainly based on coal and petroleum, which are
non-renewable energy. Traditional fuel vehicles consume
lots of these resources, and emit great amount of harmful
gas; With the rapid increase of the ownership of cars in
Henan province, the problem of energy crisis, traffic
congestion and environmental pollution becomes more
serious. Automobile industry is the rapid developing
supporting industry of Henan province, and it is an
important strategic measure to construct modern industry
system. Therefore, developing new energy vehicles in

This work was Supported by the Science and Technology Attack
Projects of Henan Province (072102340009); Supported by the Natural
Science Foundation of Department of Henan Province (2009A110011);
Supported by the Philosophy and Social Sciences Plan Project of Henan
Province (2007BJJ014); Supported by Soft Science Foundation of Science
and Technology Department of Henan Province (082400440100).
Dang Luo is with the College of Mathematics and Information Sciences,
North China University of Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,
Zhengzhou, China. Jing Zhang is with Technology Economic and
Management, North China University of Conservancy and Hydroelectric
Power, Zhengzhou, China. (iamld.99@163.com;feixv.meng@163.com).
Henan province is imperative. As an important scientific
and technologic project, on April 30th in 2009, Henan
province input 12 million yuan supporting Yutong
Company and Nissan to exploit energy conservation and
new energy vehicles [1]. This initiative is implemented to
achieve the object of energy conservation and emission
reduction in the field of Henans transport. Accordingly, the
superiority of Henan automobile industry can be further
consolidated and amplified. Also, the core competence of
Henan automobile industry can be improved.
Nowadays, many enterprises launch on new energy
vehicles project. However, a few of them actually have
neither the research ability nor the key technique. These
enterprises just try for production qualification of vehicles,
which not only deviates from the government policy
guidance, but also effects the healthy development of new
energy vehicles industry. Because the development of new
energy vehicles industry in Henan province is affected by
many factors, such as policy, technique, talents, supporting
facilities, cost and consumption concept and so on; the risk
evaluation index system of new energy vehicles project is
complicate and uncertain. If rough sets theory was applied
to simplify the indexes, the redundant information will be
eliminated successfully [2], which will be helpful for right
and quick decision. The new energy vehicles project is
uncertain and lack of history data and similar kinds for
comparison, and only qualitative evaluation can be made on
many factors of it. The great information asymmetry is one
characteristic of the risk investment: the risk investors hold
all information on the applied project, so they have
advantages on information; on the other hand, although
certain information can be captured by reading business
plan, inquiry or interview, it is still not accurate and intact
for the evaluating subjects and the objects evaluated.
Whats more, the evaluation is affected by the evaluation
ability, knowledge, and personal subjective opinion of the
evaluation experts and the interruption of outsides. So it is
impossible to get intact information. So the new energy
vehicles project has characteristic such as poor data, small
sample, incomplete information, exile experience, which are
all the characteristic of grey system. Hence, based on the
complexity of the risk evaluation and the uncertainty of the
evaluation information, rough sets theory and grey system
theory are applied in the research of the risk evaluation,
which has important theory meaning and application value.


The Risk Assessment of New Energy Vehicles
Project in Henan Province Based on Grey Hierarchy
Evaluation Method
Dang Luo & Jing Zhang
Dang Luo et al.: The Risk Assessment of New Energy Vehicles Project in Henan Province Based on Grey Hierarchy Evaluation Method
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

187

2. The Risk Analysis of New
Energy Vehicles Project in
Henan Province
A. Development Situation of New Energy Vehicles in
Henan Province
The new energy vehicles refer to the automobiles
which use the unconventional fuel as the power source (or
use conventional fuel but new vehicle power unit); they
have new technology and structure formed by synthesizing
the advanced technology of power control and drive. The
new energy vehicles include mix power vehicles, pure
electric vehicles (including solar energy vehicles), fuel cell
electric vehicles, hydrogen engine vehicles, other new
energy (for example highly effective energy storer and
dimethyl ether) vehicles and so on [3].The new energy
vehicles have a great potential and advantage in the
direction of electric vehicles in hennan province, which is
one of the provinces that firstly studied on electric vehicles.
The main development direction of the new energy vehicles
in Henna province is pure electric cars and hybrid electric
vehicles. In 1985, Electric Vehicle Engineering Association
was founded in Henan province, which was the first
professional organization about studying electric vehicles.
In the resent 20 years, it has reserved a group of core
technology and trained a pool of technical talents for the
development of electric vehicles in Henan province.
However, few of them have the ability of integrating with
vehicle technology, motor and controller technology and the
battery application technology. The older generations of
electric vehicles technology team are with high age and
master with the core technology of electric cars, but they are
unable to work because of their health. The younger
generations have not yet grown up. The technology of
electric vehicles in Henan province faces the same fate as
liquor-making crafts which have been lost [4].
Some relevant departments are constructing the
criterion subsidy and preferential measures about electric
vehicles in Henan province as soon as possible. It will be
beneficial to the research and development of electric
vehicles, purchase of demonstration operation and
construction supporting facilities. The electric vehicles
consumers will be given policy concessions in the
acquisition, use, maintenance and other links. However,
there is less relevant policy in other areas of new energy
vehicles in Henan province.
B. Constructing the Risk Evaluation Index System of New
Energy Vehicles Project in Henan Based on Rough Sets
Pure electric vehicles of Henan province have not been
able to industrializing, in spite of having some industrial
advantages. It is still at the stage of samples and exhibits. It
still has a big gap from the marketing and commercial
operations. The main reason for the development of new
energy vehicles in Henan province is lack of corresponding
policy support, technical personnel and supporting facilities;
whats more, there are also barriers such as traditional
concept, high cost and poor operational conditions and so
on. All these reasons have seriously hindered the
development of new energy vehicles in Henan Province.
The first risk is technology risk. Its the largest
bottleneck in the development of new energy vehicles.
Theres a large gap between our dedicated engine, power
module, key components as well as basic industries and
abroad. The key of developing new energy vehicles is to
develop fuel cells, electric motor and other core technology.
To implement the new energy vehicles, the company must
have the appropriate manufacturability, production facilities,
as well as capability of design and development.
The second one is policy risk. The policy risk includes
the stability and continuity of policy. The government
supports a variety of new energy vehicles to develop side by
side now, but it is difficult to say which kind will be
neglected or abandoned by the government in the future.
Once it happened, the cost that had been invested would be
TABLE 1
ALL KINDS OF NEW ENERGY VEHICLES PERFORMANCE COMPARISON FORM

U
Clean diesel
vehicles
Bio-fuel
vehicles
Coal-to-alcohol
vehicle
Natural Gas
Vehicles
Hybrid Electric
Vehicle
Pure electric
vehicles
Fuel Cell
Vehicles
U11 poor poor general good general good general
U12 poor poor general general general good general
U21 poor general general good better better good
U22 poor poor general general poor poor poor
U31 better good good good general general poor
U31 general general good good good better poor
U33 better better good better general better better
U34 good general general poor better general general
U35 good poor general general general general poor
U36 poor general general general good better better
U37 better good general general good general poor
U38 general poor poor poor better good better
U39 better general general poor good poor poor
U41 poor poor general general general good better
U42 poor general general better general general poor
U43 poor poor poor general general poor poor
U44 better general good poor good poor poor
U45 better good good general better better general
U46 poor general general good better better good

International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 1, No. 5, Pp. 186-190, Nov. 2011.
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

188
meaningless. That would make enterprises facing the huge
policy risk. At present less policy continuity is an important
reason that new energy vehicles did not really realize the
commercialization in domestic automobile market, all kinds
of new energy vehicles are in demonstration or the
operational phase [5]. And subsidy for new energy vehicles
has little in private purchasers. Preferential policy should be
expanded in the future.
The third one is market risk. Although the new energy
vehicles are very environmental, the price is too high which
is also a bottleneck. A type of pure electric vehicles was
born in December 13th 2009 in zhonghang electric vehicles
(Zhengzhou) Co. Ltd. The price is 10 million Yuan (the
100,000 yuan just includes cost of mechanical parts,
electronic components and raw material procurement,
excluding wages, management cost, marketing cost, energy
consumption and maintenance cost). There are more than 20
charging stations in zhengfei district; the purchasers can be
subsidized 600 yuan per vehicle per month. But it was still
difficult to accept for ordinary people. In addition, it is
necessary to build facilities, so that the new energy vehicles
market can be achieved; it will also add the cost of new
energy vehicles industrialization.
If the comfort and price of new energy vehicles are
better than the traditional cars, consumers will accept easily.
Consumers consumption habits led to many biases to
electric vehicles, such as high price, instability performance,
inconvenient operation, short driving mileage and expensive
maintenance; and also include emission quality of new
energy vehicles, economic benefits and the energy density.
The forth one is operational risk. It mainly relates to the
availability of capital, talents, fuel and other resources that
the process of new energy vehicles industry needs, the
convenience of adding fuel, nature of energy storage, and
security. Once the new energy vehicles bring into operation,
there will be security issues faced by operators, such as the
safe use of alternative fuel and so on.
We get the following evaluation index system of new
energy vehicles project in Henna province based on the
above analysis: B1 technology risk, B2 policy risk, B3
market risk, B4 operational risk; and its corresponding
lower-level evaluation index are followed: U11
manufacturability and facilities, U12 capability of design
and development, U21 policy support, U22 policy
continuity, U31 vehicle price, U32 fuel cost, U33
convenience of operation, U34 vehicle quality, U35
maintenance cost, U36 emission quality, U37 driving
mileage, U38 energy conversion efficiency, U39 energy
density, U41 richness of resources, U42 availability of
personnel, U43 convenience of adding fuel ,U44 nature of
energy storage,U45 security and U46 availability of capital.
There is performance evaluation of all kinds of new energy
vehicles in Table 1 [6].
Attribute reduction of rough sets theory is used to
reduce the evaluation index system in the light with Table 1.
Rough sets theory is a data analysis theory in which
proposed in 1982 by Z. Pawlak who was a Polish
mathematician. It is a new tool to deal with uncertain
knowledge of mathematical. Its main idea is that through
knowledge reduction to export decision-making or
classification rules on the premise of maintaining the same
classification ability [2].We obtain the evaluation index
system to be shown in Fig. 1 through the rough sets theory
to reduct the index system.
3. Grey Hierarchy Evaluation of
the Project Risk
Its the most important to determine the whitenization
weight function in grey cluster. Exponential whitenization
weight functions are constructed on the basis of the
literature [7]-[8]. They effectively overcome the defect that
the linear whitenization weight functions only consider the
relationship between adjacent grades in classic grey cluster;
broaden the scope of whitenization weight function and
improve the utilization of information [9]. Exponential
whitenization function is suitable for two situations whether
the evaluation rating is determined value or grey interval
Risk Evaluation Index System of New Energy Vehicles in Henna ProvinceA
p
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U11
C4

technology riskB1 policy riskB2
market riskB3
operational riskB4
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U22 U12 U21 U31 U32
U33 U34
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U38
U42 U43 U44
U45 U41
Fig.1 Risk evaluation index system of new energy vehicles in henna province
Dang Luo et al.: The Risk Assessment of New Energy Vehicles Project in Henan Province Based on Grey Hierarchy Evaluation Method
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

189
number, so it has broader applicability in the risk evaluation
index system. This section uses the improved method to
make a comprehensive assessment for the project risk.
A. Identification of Indicators Weight and Evaluation
Matrix
At first, the method of AHP [10] is applied to determine
the weight of all indicators; and then the rating criteria of
evaluating index score is drew up and experts are organized
to give score which is denoted as
ijk
d . It divides into five
grades such as "serious" risk, "large" risk, "general" risk,
"small" risk and "tiny" risk. Assumed the risk level is
divided into five levels. The evaluation
matrixes
) , , 2 , 1 ; 5 , 4 , 3 , 2 , 1 ( p k i D
i
= =
are obtained.
B. The Improved Whitenization Weight Function
It needs to determine the class of grey cluster, grey
number and whitenization weight functions in order to
reflect the extent of the evaluation object belonging to
certain cluster; namely, it is to determine the level of
assessment, grey number, and grey whitenization weight
function [11]. The following are their whitenization weight
functions.
The first grey cluster is "serious"(n=1); grey
number ] , 7 , 0 [
1
e ; Whitenization weight function is
followed:

e
e
=
] 7 , 0 [ ,
] 7 , 0 [ , 1
) (
7 / 1
ijk
d
ijk
ijk
d e
d
d f
ijk

The second grey cluster is "large"(n=2); grey
number
] 7 , 6 , 0 [
2
e
; Whitenization weight function is
followed:

e
e
e
=

] 7 , 6 [ ,
] 6 , 0 [ ,
] 7 , 0 [ , 0
) (
7
6 /
2
ijk
d
ijk
d
ijk
ijk
d e
d e
d
d f
ijk
ijk

The third grey cluster is "general"(n =3); grey
number ] 7 , 5 , 0 [
3
e ; Whitenization weight function is
followed:

e
e
e
=

] 7 , 5 [ ,
] 5 , 0 [ ,
] 7 , 0 [ , 0
) (
2 / ) 7 (
5 /
3
ijk
d
ijk
d
ijk
ijk
d e
d e
d
d f
ijk
ijk

The forth grey cluster is "small"(n =4); grey number
] 7 , 3 , 0 [
4
e ; Whitenization weight function is followed:

e
e
e
=

] 7 , 3 [ ,
] 3 , 0 [ ,
] 7 , 0 [ , 0
) (
4 / ) 7 (
3 /
4
ijk
d
ijk
d
ijk
ijk
d e
d e
d
d f
ijk
ijk

The fifth grey cluster is "tiny"(n =5); grey number
] 2 , 1 , 0 [
5
e ; Whitenization weight function is followed:

e
e
e
=

] 2 , 1 [ ,
] 1 , 0 [ , 1
] 2 , 0 [ , 0
) (
2
5
ijk
d
ijk
ijk
ijk
d e
d
d
d f
ijk

As for indicators
ij
U
, its clustering coefficient are:

=
=
p
k
ijk n ijn
d f
1
) (
, and its comprehensive clustering coefficient
are:

=
=
5
1 n
ijn ij

.
C. Determination of the Comprehensive Evaluation Value
From above we obtain grey evaluation weight vector:
) (
5 4 3 2 1 ij ij ij ij ij ij
r r r r r r = , where
ij ijn ijn
r / = ;
and then get the grey evaluation weight matrix:
T
ij i i
r r R ] [
1
= .For all indicators
ij
U
, we make a
comprehensive assessment and the results are
] [
5 4 3 2 1 i i i i i i i i
c c c c c R A B = = , and then get the
comprehensive result is | |
5 4 3 2 1
b b b b b R A B = = ,
where
| |
T
B B B B R
4 3 2 1
=
.
The comprehensive evaluation result B is a vector. In
order to calculate the total risk value W, we give a value to
each class of grey cluster in line with grey level and get a
vector ) 1 3 5 6 7 ( = V .
7 1 , s s = W V B W
T
.
If 4 1 s sW , the risk is acceptable and the project can be
implemented; If 6 4 s <W , the risk is relatively large. We
must reduce risk before implementing the new energy
vehicles project. Enterprises can find the main source of the
risk through analysis layer by layer and take measures to
decrease the risk; and then evaluate again until the total risk
value is in the first interval. If 7 6 s <W , the risk is too great
to carry out the project.
D. Grey Hierarchy Comprehensive Evaluation
Based on the risk of new energy vehicles project in
Henan province in this article, the method of AHP is used to
determine the relative weight of each indictor. The first
level weight is followed.
] 0797 . 0 , 1376 . 0 , 3137 . 0 , 4690 . 0 [ = A ; The following are the
second level weights.
] 3333 . 0 , 6667 . 0 [
1
= A ; ] 75 . 0 , 25 . 0 [
2
= A ;
] 0706 . 0 , 0803 . 0 , 0271 . 0 , 0537 . 0 , 2522 . 0 , 1410 . 0 , 0552 . 0 , 3197 . 0 [
3
= A
] 1447 . 0 , 0901 . 0 , 2962 . 0 , 4087 . 0 , 0602 . 0 [
4
= A .
According to above steps obtains four judgment
matrixes:
(

=
(

=
3 4 5 . 2 4 3
6 5 5 . 6 6 5
;
3 5 . 2 3 3 4
6 5 . 6 7 5 6
2 1
D D
;
T
D
(
(
(
(
(
(

=
5 . 2 3 2 2 3 2 5 . 2 5 . 3
5 . 3 5 . 3 2 3 4 5 . 2 2 5
3 3 3 4 5 . 3 2 5 . 3 4
4 4 2 5 . 3 5 3 4 5
3 5 . 3 2 3 4 5 . 2 3 5 . 6
3
;
International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 1, No. 5, Pp. 186-190, Nov. 2011.
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

190
(
(
(
(
(
(

=
5 . 2 3 3 5 . 3 4
3 2 3 4 3
4 4 5 . 5 5 6
4 5 6 5 . 6 5
2 3 5 . 2 2 3
4
D
.
And then gets the grey evaluation matrix:
(
(
(
(

=
2105 . 0 2367 . 0 2558 . 0 2587 . 0 2431 . 0
0270 . 0 4258 . 0 3806 . 0 3428 . 0 3237 . 0
0 2874 . 0 2488 . 0 2394 . 0 2244 . 0
0 2242 . 0 2310 . 0 2605 . 0 2843 . 0
R
.
Eventually, we obtain the comprehensive assessment
result:
) 0226 . 0 , 2728 . 0 , 2592 . 0 , 2651 . 0 , 2676 . 0 ( = B
; the total
risk value: 6 . 5 = W . It is in the second interval. So the risk
is lager. We should take measures to reduce the risk before
implementing the new energy vehicles project.
Derived from the above we get the following
conclusions. Though there are battery industry and
technology advantage in electric vehicles areas, its difficult
to form a concerted effort. As the industrialization of new
energy vehicles needs to establish the relevant supporting
facilities, there is a long time to carry out operation. Thus,
the project can be researched and developed in phase. For
rich in natural gas resources in Henan province, in the
transitional phase it can be extended the application of
natural gas vehicles, which are clean, easy to modify and
operate. They have already been widely used in Puyang city,
they can also be promoted in other large and medium cities,
and mainly apply in buses, taxis, private cars and other
urban public transport area. The technology of electric
vehicles in Henan province is relatively mature; they can be
researched and developed in priority in the initial phase. In
long-term planning, taking into account the stability of
policy, bio-fuel vehicles, coal-to-alcohol vehicles, fuel cell
vehicles and other higher risk areas should be further
researched and developed so as to seize the highest point of
the future auto field. For the technology and market size is
far from maturity, the relevant departments need to offer
more subsidies and follow it in place.
4. Conclusion
Through analyzing and researching the risk evaluation
of new energy vehicles project in Henan province, the
evaluation index system is established based on rough sets;
exponential whitenization weight functions are constructed;
the improved grey hierarchy comprehensive evaluation
model is used to evaluate the risk project. The risk is
relatively large in view of the assessment. Simultaneously,
some measures are put forward according to the evaluation
result, which would provide a useful theoretical support for
rapid and healthy development of Henan economy.
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Dang Luo professor was born in
Henan Province of China, in 1959.
He received BS and PhD degrees
from Henan University in 1982
and Nanjing University of
Aeronautics and Astronautics in
2005; from 1982 to 2010 he has
studied at Lanzhou university, Beijing Institute and
Central China Normal University. At present he is the
dean of College of Mathematics and Information
Sciences in North China University of Water
Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China. He
is the executive director of China optimization
co-ordination method and economic Mathematics
Research of Grey Professional Committee, and
Agricultural Systems Engineering Committee Youth
Research of China Systems Engineering Society.He is
mainly engaged in researching investment
decision-making and economic evaluation,
quantitative economics, project management and
other fields.