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Post Doctorate Research Proposal

Post doctorate Research Proposal

Robustness in train timetables: Models and Algorithms to minimize travel times and improve schedules reliability
Submitted by Dr. Muhammad Babar Khan

Submitted to

INRETS (French national institute for transport and safety


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Post Doctorate Research Proposal

research)
January 1
th

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Post Doctorate Research Proposal

Table of Contents
1# Proposal Summary ######################################################################################################################## $ !# %ac&'round and State of the art#################################################################################################### ( )# *oals and Problem Statement####################################################################################################### + $# Related former research ,or& of the applicant ############################################################################# + (# Future Rele-ance.Prospects of Proposed Research######################################################################### / +# Scope and 0b1ecti-es ################################################################################################################### /# Research Plan ############################################################################################################################### 2 # Time Schedule ############################################################################################################################ 1" ####################################################################################################################################################### 1" References3 ##################################################################################################################################### 11

Post Doctorate Research Proposal

1. Proposal Summary
Reliability and punctuality of scheduled transport services is crucial for the sustainable and productive development of a countrys economy. The competition among various transportation modes is determined by level of service it provides. Pakistan railways transportation is facing high degree of unreliability with excessive delays. The railway sector is incurring high costs due to delays, operational inefficiencies, longer dwell times and poor service quality. The strategic thrust should be on optimal utili ation of the existing railways infrastructure capacity, improved railway management for operations and maintenance, and well coordinated use of various departments in railways. Punctuality and reliability are the two key determinants of the quality of scheduled railway services which play vital role for passengers and freight shippers in choosing the desirable mode. Reliability of railway system is determined by the overall performance of the railway timetables and is calculated in terms of the mean or variance of the trains lateness from its scheduled time. The main ob!ective of this proposed study is to develop rules, methods and guidelines for supporting the generation of more reliable timetables that will assist the railway departments in Pakistan. These include" #. To investigate the determinants of measure of performance and reliability" $escribe the influence of planning rules and other aspects. %. To apply theoretical models in practical cases" &se these models to verify the appropriateness of current planning rules applied by railway companies with respect to reliability, punctuality, and robustness. '. (mprove the timetable design methods" $evelop models and methods to construct and optimi e train timetables with respect to reducing delays and other quantitative ob!ectives. The anticipated benefits of this research will be" Robust train timetables will be less sensitive to train delays during execution and eventually improve the railway systems punctuality. Reliability of railway systems will be improved. The proposed research methods can be used for evaluating timetables, which can help to evaluate different alternatives. This research will provide railway infrastructure managers a tool for decision making in long)term railway planning. (t can further provide well)substantiated cost)benefit analysis using sensitivity analysis of several parameters can be assessed. Train timetable generating tool will be used in university for teaching students about railways systems.

Post Doctorate Research Proposal

2. Background and State of the art


(n many countries especially in *sia and +urope, railway transportation serves as a back)bone of transportation systems. The railway industries strive to continuously improve their level of service in the increasingly competitive and rapidly changing multi)mode transportation market. Reliability and punctuality of railway system are the two well known determinants that play vital role for passengers in choosing the desirable mode of transportation. Pakistan railway transportation system is incurring higher costs due to unreliable services, operational delays, systems inadequate capacity utili ation. *ccording to planning commission of Pakistan, it is estimated that the inadequate and inefficient transport system is imposing a cost to the economy in excess of Rs. %%, billion annually or -.. per cent of the /$P, constraining economic growth, reducing export competitiveness, and hindering social development. Typically, there are several investment strategies to increase the reliability and punctuality of Pakistans railways systems, for example, by increasing the number of track sections and the capacity of train stations. 0ut due to the high costs and investments involved, it is essential to utili e the existing railway infrastructure in an optimal manner. +fficient utili ation of railway infrastructure could be one of the viable alternatives to prohibitive method of improving railway service by using huge investments in railway transportation. (n the last few decades, a wide range of scheduling models and efficient solution algorithms have been developed, while train timetabling and dispatching problems are still considered separately in majority of studies. (n the field of train timetabling, there are a number of optimi ation models1 to name a few, a nonlinear integer programming model by 2iggins et al. 3#4, 3%4 minimi es the total train delay and fuel cost with variable train velocities, a 5agrangian relaxation method by 0rannlund et al. 3'4 finds a profit)maximi ing timetable, and a branch)and)bound algorithm with tight lower bounds by 6hou and 6hong 374 solves the single)track train timetabling problem with guaranteed optimality. (n the area of real)time train dispatching, many researchers 8e.g., $orfman and 9edanic 3.4: have used discrete)events or simulation models for scheduling trains and typically adopted heuristic rules to obtain sub)optimal schedules. *denso)$ia et al. 3;4 examined the different sources of train delays and the corresponding probability and durations based on empirical data. The different aspects of train scheduling problems in planning and dispatching stages are well explained in detail by <ordeau et al. 3=4. Recogni ing the increasing importance of robust train timetable design, many practitioners and researchers have devoted considerable attention to developing various models and solution methods to bridge the gap between the planning and real time operation stages. Pioneering theoretical work on the robust train timetabling problem was carried out by <areys research group 3-4, 3>4, and they proposed analytical models and sequential solution procedures for estimating train delay distributions and delay propagation.. 2allowell and 2arker 3#,4 presented a line delay model to predict the expected delay caused by meet?pass conflicts in real)time dispatching. @ocusing on cyclic timetables, Aroon et al. 3##4 proposed a stochastic optimi ation model to minimi e the average weighted delay of all trains by allocating time supplements and buffer times. Bansteenwegen et al. 3#%4 embedded a linear programming model in a simulation)based framework to evaluate and determine ideal running time allocation. *lthough substantial progress has been made in various aspects of the robust timetabling problem, it is still critically needed to de!elop a computationally efficient framework to sol!e comple" integer optimi#ation models. The challenging issue in robust timetabling is how to accurately estimate the propagation of knock)on delays among a cluster of trains, and there are two ma!or approaches for delay estimation, analytical and simulation methods, each with significant limitations. Relying on simplified assumptions, the analytical expression is extremely difficult or nearly impossible to derive for scenarios involving multiple trains with
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realistic dispatching polices. Cn the other end, a simulation)based method could provide reasonable estimates for a given train timetable, but it requires a significantly large number of simulation runs to deliver accurate delay statistics. (t is highly desirable to efficiently search robust timetables without evaluating a large number of schedules under different random scenarios.

Post Doctorate Research Proposal

$. %oals and Problem Statement


Railway transportation being an important mode of transportation in many countries plays a key role in passenger and freight transportation markets. The performance of the Pakistans railways system has been poor with high economic losses for excessive train delays, poor service quality to passengers and goods and under utili ation of existing infrastructure to cater for supply and demand. @urthermore, the Railways set up have not been progressive. Reorgani ations have not been effective in contributing to moderni ation and cost effective operations. *ttention has also not been paid to research and development. There is considerable room for improvement in the Pakistan Railways. *ccording to facts, it carries less than .D of freight traffic, whereas road sector caries >.D of the inland freight traffic which is growing rapidly. * ma!or shift in the existing railways practices for provision and delivery of rail services is imperative if capacity and productivity is to be enhanced. The railways transportation agencies in Pakistan lack the knowledge of efficient and reliable timetable generation methods, and the proper specifications to exploit the full potential of using the railway infrastructure and its capacity. The main ob!ective of this proposed study is to de!elop rules& methods and guidelines for supporting the generation of more reliable timetables that will assist the railway departments in Pakistan . This research issue is very complicated that it should be tackled in piecewise manner. To accomplish the main ob!ective, many issues need to be resolved through research and technology transfer. These include" #. To in!estigate the determinants of measure of performance and reliability' $escribe the influence of planning rules and other aspects. %. To apply theoretical models in practical cases' &se these models to verify the appropriateness of current planning rules applied by railway companies with respect to reliability, punctuality, and robustness. '. (mpro!e the timetable design methods based on points 1 and 2' $evelop models and methods to construct and optimi e train timetables with respect to reducing delays and other quantitative ob!ectives. 9ore specifically, the ob!ectives and scope of the proposal is outlined in section 8;: of this report. *lthough the above stated issues have been addressed through research in the /ermany and other developed countries, the results must be tailored to the local operating conditions and railway practices in Pakistan. Euch tailoring would enhance Pakistans educational and research capabilities and would efficiently utili e its scarce public resources. The development and implementation of the proper procedures and guidelines for the generation of more reliable timetables would increase the number of passengers, the non)users will find fewer cars on the road and market share of railways ridership will increase. The cost savings would contribute significantly to the socio)economic development of the country. The managerial benefit of the proposed research lies in the possibility for railway management to take better decisions concerning reliability and other timetable design parameters.

). *elated former research work of the applicant


The proposed research will be conducted systematically over a period of %7 months by a research team consisting of the applicant, $r. 9uhammad 0abar Ahan hosted by Professor $r. FGrn Pachl, 9anaging director of (nstitute of Railway Eystems +ngineering and Traffic
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Eafety from Technische &niversitHt 0raunschweig in the /ermany. The applicant will be the lead principal investigator of the proposed research and he will also collaborate with the following international scientists for their significant contributions to this research topic" #. *ssistant Professor, $r. Iuesong 6hou from &niveristy of &tah, &E*" for his expertise and experience in the studies related to train timetabling and scheduling problem. 8The list of his related publications is listed in references:. %. $r. Fianxin Juan, T& $elft, The Ketherlands" for his expertise in the field of stochastic delays modeling in train stations.

Post Doctorate Research Proposal

This proposal needs a !oint cooperation among the research team to bring out the stochastic model development and efficient solution algorithms for complex railway systems. The applicant has sufficient technical background and experience required to successfully meet research proposal needs for technical rigor and the development of practical and implementable products. The applicant 8$r. 9uhammad 0abar Ahan: has carried out intense research work on the formulations and solutions of train timetabling problem from past few years. The research conducted is published in refereed internal conferences and !ournals of repute. (n the following sections, applicants past research under supervision of his Ph.$. co) supervisor, $r. Iuesong 6hou at &niversity of &tah, &E*, is briefly mentioned to indicate that the applicant is well conversant with the proposed research topic. @or detailed version of papers& reader is referred to the full manuscript listed in references section. This research proposal is based on the further extension of already done research work. To improve the robustness of double)track train timetables, Iuesong and 0abar 8%,,-: 3#'4 proposed a stochastic optimi ation formulation to incorporate real)time uncertainty and dispatching policies into medium)term train timetabling decisions. Eeveral illustrative examples were presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model using data collected from a 0ei!ingLEhanghai high)speed rail corridor in <hina. (n a sequel paper, 0abar and Iuesong 8%,#,: 3#74 proposed a similar stochastic optimi ation formulation to incorporate segment travel time uncertainty into a medium)term train timetabling process. (n this paper, a heuristic sequential solution framework was proposed and robust timetabling problem was decomposed into a series of subproblems that optimi e the slack)time allocation for individual trains.

+. ,uture *ele!ance-Prospects of Proposed *esearch


The efficient and safe movement of humans and commodities over space and time is essential to the economic success of societies and citi ensM quality of life. The increasing capabilities of information and communication technologies dramatically increase the dynamics and complexity of underlying railways network and also offer great opportunities for effective railway transportation system planning and operations. *s mentioned in the scope and ob!ectives section, this research study will be kind of research cooperation between the Pakistan)/ermany science and technology cooperative program. (t will provide opportunities to my academic institution, i.e., Kational &niversity of Eciences N Technology 8K&ET: in specific and professionals in Pakistan to learn the state)of)the art practice regarding the train timetabling practices in /ermany. The strong interaction between both Technical &niversity 0ransweheig and K&ET teams during the execution of this research study should enhance the existing institutional and academic capacities in Pakistan, which will have long term effects in the socioeconomic aspects of Pakistan. The outcome of this research study will help in improving the well being of ordinary Pakistani people by offering them better railway services1 it will also assist in
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Post Doctorate Research Proposal

efficient use of limited resources. Results from this study would allow the Pakistans railway agencies to execute more pro!ects under the given constraints, thereby supporting the industry competitiveness through public?private partnership. The implementation of this research outcome will positively supplement the national economic growth and it will provide long) term environmental benefits.

.. Scope and /bjecti!es


The scope of this proposed research is to develop models and methods for generation of robust train timetables that incorporates to some extent the real)time disturbances unfolding at the dispatching of trains. (n practice& number of thumb rules are de!eloped o!er the years of e"perience but these rules are ne!er been !erified scientifically. There are number of research issues involved in train timetabling. The specific ob!ectives of the proposed study include" Objective 1: 0ased on our prior stochastic models, relationships will be derived for measures of performances and reliability of train schedules in comparison with timetable design parameters, for instance, segment travel times, dwell times on stations, connection times for other scheduled trains, etc. Euch measures will give insights into trade)offs for optimal timetable design. Objective 2: 9easures of performance developed in ob!ective #, will serve to further generate design performance rules and standards for more realistic and complex railway networks. Objective 3: To model and formali e the train planners methods and procedures to schedule and reschedule train movements through stations and platforms. (t will be extended into rules and standards for next steps in computer modeling. Objective 4: Cb!ective ' will be written into computer programs to systematically generate train plans incorporating train planners methods of train movements through stations. Objective 5: 9easures of performance and reliability will be developed that can be easily computable in order to give train plans generated in ob!ective 7. Objective 6: To develop improved methods for measures of performance and reliability by linking ob!ective 7 and .. Objective 7: To extensively test capabilities of the proposed models and solution algorithms on realistic busy railway networks in Pakistan, and in order to find train conflict resolving capabilities and train assignments for complex stations configurations. Objective 8: To adopt the proposed system take into account key aspects involved in solving train conflicts in practice. Cther functionalities for test could be different train speeds, multiple tracks, priority in trains assignments, and break down?failure of any trains, etc. Objective 9: To make sure the system could meet the design standards in practice, and to generate new timetables, add new trains or re)schedule for breakdown trains, compare and compute cost and reliability measures for different alternatives. Objective 10: @inally, investigate performance affecting factors, document methods and results for the use of train planners for necessary ad!ustments.

0. *esearch Plan

Post Doctorate Research Proposal

To accomplish the abovementioned ob!ectives, a systematic research plan consisting of following tasks is designed and presented in this section. Task 1 1 *e!iew of 2iterature and 3"isting Practices (n this task, the research team will critically review existing national and international literature related to the robust train timetable generation techniques. The review will include train platforming, train timetabling, train scheduling and timetable design problems. Results of such reviews would assist the research team to customi e the most appropriate methodologies and procedures to address the local needs in Pakistan. Task 2 1 4eri!e methods for design performances rules and reliability measures for train schedules $uring the timetable design, it is important to determine measures of performances that affects the reliability or robustness of train timetable. @or example, what will be the cost, if train is late by ., #, or %, minutes lateO The properties of proposed models of train networks will include random segment travel times, dwell times and connection times to cater for unforeseen events. The problems of focus will be broader than traditionally considered in the past for railways. @or instance, explicit trade)offs among cost, profit, segment travel times, which are usually only considered earlier or later in the train planning process. These methods will have to be implemented in large scale computer programs and link to railway data bases. Task $ 1 ,ormali#e the e"pert train planner5s rules and plans The model formulation will be based on information from experienced train planners to incorporate various practical rules and strategies to plan train assignments at busy train stations and !unctions to resolve conflicts. @or large train stations, all types of complexity in platforms, different speed trains and conflict among trains will be formali ed in timetabling process. The data required at this stage will be minimum train headways, station dwell times, turnaround times, location and layouts of stations, etc. Task ) 1 Computer generated train plans Train timetable is generated with great effort for allocating trains on platforms and line allocations within railway network. <omputer packages are generally used to assist in train planning a ma!or part of the process, the finding and resolving of conflicts is still done using manual procedures. The algorithms and procedures will be written in <PP code, and tested for a busy rail system, for example sections with %. multi)platform stations, each with multiple subplatforms and with several hundred train movements each day at every station. The programs will be tested to check whether it can handle unlimited numbers of trains, if it is far in excess of the numbers possible at any station. Task + 1 Sensiti!ity analysis and testing of Computer generated train plans To test the reliability of train platforming plans, mainly two measures will be proposed. @irst measure will be based on 9onte <arlo simulations for generating plans for several thousand
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Post Doctorate Research Proposal

days, with usual random disturbances. The results will be analy ed to compute knock)on delays, means, variance and confidence intervals. Eecondly, reliability or robustness measures will be proposed based on quick heuristics techniques instead of simulation. @or example, the number of potential conflicts for arriving?departing trains. (t is known that such measures are less accurate the simulated based analysis but they are designed to get quick and easy train plans. Eensitivity analyses of the computer generated train will be conducted for all parameters to ascertain the efficiency of proposed algorithms, even in extreme case scenarios.

6. Time Schedule
@igure # shows the time schedule for each task of the proposed research. The ob!ectives of the pro!ect will be accomplished over a period of %7 months.
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Technical Study - Tasks


Robustness in Train Timetables: Models and Algorithms to minimize travel times and improve schedules reliability Literature review of existing practices Derived easures of perfor ances and re!ia"i!it# of train sc$edu!es %enerate design perfor ance ru!es and standards for ore rea!istic and co p!ex rai!wa# networ&s 'ode! and for a!i(e t$e train p!anners et$ods and procedures to sc$edu!e and resc$edu!e train ove ents t$roug$ stations and p!atfor s )rite co puter progra s to s#ste atica!!# generate train p!ans incorporating train p!anners et$ods of train ove ents t$roug$ stations *xtensive testing of t$e proposed ode!s and so!ution a!gorit$ s on rea!istic "us# rai!wa# networ&s in +a&istan ,nvestigate perfor ance affecting factors- docu ent et$ods and resu!ts for t$e use of train p!anners for necessar# ad.ust ents

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

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,igure 1. Time schedule for the entire 1 year research study

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Post Doctorate Research Proposal

*eferences'
3#4 *. 2iggins, +. Ao an, and 5. @erreira, QCptimal scheduling of trains on a single line track,R Transportation Research 0, vol.',, pp. #7=L#;#, #>>;. 3%4 *. 2iggins, and +. Ao an, Q9odeling train delays in urban networks,R Transportation Ecience, vol '%, no. 7, pp. '7;)'.=, #>>-. 3'4 &. 0rannlund, P.C., 5indberg, *. Kou, F.+. Kilsson, QRailway timetabling using 5agrangian relaxation,R Transportation Ecience, vol. '%, no. 7, #>>-, pp. '.-L';>. 374 I. 6hou, and 9., 6hong, QEingle)track train timetabling with guaranteed optimality" branch)and)bound algorithms with enhanced lower bounds,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. 7#, pp. '%,L'7#, %,,=. 3.4 9.F. $orfman, F. 9edanic, QEcheduling trains on a railway network using a discrete event model of railway traffic,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. '-, pp. -#)>-, %,,7. 3;4 0. *denso)$ia , 9.C. /on ale , P./on ale )Torre,QCn)line timetable re)scheduling in regional train services,R Transportation Research, Part 0 vol.'', pp. '-=L'>-,#>>>. 3=4 F.@. <ordeau, P. Toth, and $. Bigo, Q* survey of optimi ation models for train routing and scheduling,R Transportation Ecience, vol. '%, pp. '-,L7,7, #>>-. 3-4 9. <arey, and *. Awiecinski, QEtochastic approximation to the effects of headways in knock)on delays of trains,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol.%-, pp.%.#)%;=, #>>7. 3>4 9. <arey, and *. Awiecinski, QProperties of expected costs and performance measures in stochastic models of scheduled transport,R +uropean Fournal of Cperational Research, vol. -', pp.#-%)#>>. #>>.. 3#,4E. 2allowell, P. 2arker., QPredicting on)time performance in scheduled railroad operations" 9ethodology and application to train scheduling,R Transportation Research *, vol. '%, no. 7, pp. %=>)%>;, #>>-. 3##4 5. Aroon, R. $ekker, /. 9aroti, 9. R. 2elmrich and 9.Bromans, QEtochastic (mprovement of <yclic Railway Timetables,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. 7%, no. ;, pp. ..').=,, %,,-. 3#%4P. Bansteenwegen and $. Ban Cudheusden, Q$ecreasing the passenger waiting time for an intercity rail network,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. 7#, pp. 7=-)7>%, %,,=. 3#'4Iuesong 6hou and 7uhammad Babar 8han, QElack Time *llocation in Robust $ouble)Track Train TimetablingR, Transportation Research 0oard, -=th *nnual 9eeting, Transportation Research 0oard 8TR0:, Fanuary %,,-. 3#74 7uhammad Babar 8han and Iuesong 6hou, QElack Time *llocation in Robust $ouble)Track Train Timetabling *pplicationsR, (+++ Transaction on (ntelligent Transportation Eystems, vol. ##, no. #, pp. -#)->, %,#,.

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Post Doctorate Research Proposal

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