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Robustness in train timetables: Models and Algorithms to minimize travel times and improve schedules reliability
Submitted by Dr. Muhammad Babar Khan
Submitted to
research)
January 1
th
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Table of Contents
1# Proposal Summary ######################################################################################################################## $ !# %ac&'round and State of the art#################################################################################################### ( )# *oals and Problem Statement####################################################################################################### + $# Related former research ,or& of the applicant ############################################################################# + (# Future Rele-ance.Prospects of Proposed Research######################################################################### / +# Scope and 0b1ecti-es ################################################################################################################### /# Research Plan ############################################################################################################################### 2 # Time Schedule ############################################################################################################################ 1" ####################################################################################################################################################### 1" References3 ##################################################################################################################################### 11
1. Proposal Summary
Reliability and punctuality of scheduled transport services is crucial for the sustainable and productive development of a countrys economy. The competition among various transportation modes is determined by level of service it provides. Pakistan railways transportation is facing high degree of unreliability with excessive delays. The railway sector is incurring high costs due to delays, operational inefficiencies, longer dwell times and poor service quality. The strategic thrust should be on optimal utili ation of the existing railways infrastructure capacity, improved railway management for operations and maintenance, and well coordinated use of various departments in railways. Punctuality and reliability are the two key determinants of the quality of scheduled railway services which play vital role for passengers and freight shippers in choosing the desirable mode. Reliability of railway system is determined by the overall performance of the railway timetables and is calculated in terms of the mean or variance of the trains lateness from its scheduled time. The main ob!ective of this proposed study is to develop rules, methods and guidelines for supporting the generation of more reliable timetables that will assist the railway departments in Pakistan. These include" #. To investigate the determinants of measure of performance and reliability" $escribe the influence of planning rules and other aspects. %. To apply theoretical models in practical cases" &se these models to verify the appropriateness of current planning rules applied by railway companies with respect to reliability, punctuality, and robustness. '. (mprove the timetable design methods" $evelop models and methods to construct and optimi e train timetables with respect to reducing delays and other quantitative ob!ectives. The anticipated benefits of this research will be" Robust train timetables will be less sensitive to train delays during execution and eventually improve the railway systems punctuality. Reliability of railway systems will be improved. The proposed research methods can be used for evaluating timetables, which can help to evaluate different alternatives. This research will provide railway infrastructure managers a tool for decision making in long)term railway planning. (t can further provide well)substantiated cost)benefit analysis using sensitivity analysis of several parameters can be assessed. Train timetable generating tool will be used in university for teaching students about railways systems.
realistic dispatching polices. Cn the other end, a simulation)based method could provide reasonable estimates for a given train timetable, but it requires a significantly large number of simulation runs to deliver accurate delay statistics. (t is highly desirable to efficiently search robust timetables without evaluating a large number of schedules under different random scenarios.
Eafety from Technische &niversitHt 0raunschweig in the /ermany. The applicant will be the lead principal investigator of the proposed research and he will also collaborate with the following international scientists for their significant contributions to this research topic" #. *ssistant Professor, $r. Iuesong 6hou from &niveristy of &tah, &E*" for his expertise and experience in the studies related to train timetabling and scheduling problem. 8The list of his related publications is listed in references:. %. $r. Fianxin Juan, T& $elft, The Ketherlands" for his expertise in the field of stochastic delays modeling in train stations.
This proposal needs a !oint cooperation among the research team to bring out the stochastic model development and efficient solution algorithms for complex railway systems. The applicant has sufficient technical background and experience required to successfully meet research proposal needs for technical rigor and the development of practical and implementable products. The applicant 8$r. 9uhammad 0abar Ahan: has carried out intense research work on the formulations and solutions of train timetabling problem from past few years. The research conducted is published in refereed internal conferences and !ournals of repute. (n the following sections, applicants past research under supervision of his Ph.$. co) supervisor, $r. Iuesong 6hou at &niversity of &tah, &E*, is briefly mentioned to indicate that the applicant is well conversant with the proposed research topic. @or detailed version of papers& reader is referred to the full manuscript listed in references section. This research proposal is based on the further extension of already done research work. To improve the robustness of double)track train timetables, Iuesong and 0abar 8%,,-: 3#'4 proposed a stochastic optimi ation formulation to incorporate real)time uncertainty and dispatching policies into medium)term train timetabling decisions. Eeveral illustrative examples were presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model using data collected from a 0ei!ingLEhanghai high)speed rail corridor in <hina. (n a sequel paper, 0abar and Iuesong 8%,#,: 3#74 proposed a similar stochastic optimi ation formulation to incorporate segment travel time uncertainty into a medium)term train timetabling process. (n this paper, a heuristic sequential solution framework was proposed and robust timetabling problem was decomposed into a series of subproblems that optimi e the slack)time allocation for individual trains.
efficient use of limited resources. Results from this study would allow the Pakistans railway agencies to execute more pro!ects under the given constraints, thereby supporting the industry competitiveness through public?private partnership. The implementation of this research outcome will positively supplement the national economic growth and it will provide long) term environmental benefits.
0. *esearch Plan
To accomplish the abovementioned ob!ectives, a systematic research plan consisting of following tasks is designed and presented in this section. Task 1 1 *e!iew of 2iterature and 3"isting Practices (n this task, the research team will critically review existing national and international literature related to the robust train timetable generation techniques. The review will include train platforming, train timetabling, train scheduling and timetable design problems. Results of such reviews would assist the research team to customi e the most appropriate methodologies and procedures to address the local needs in Pakistan. Task 2 1 4eri!e methods for design performances rules and reliability measures for train schedules $uring the timetable design, it is important to determine measures of performances that affects the reliability or robustness of train timetable. @or example, what will be the cost, if train is late by ., #, or %, minutes lateO The properties of proposed models of train networks will include random segment travel times, dwell times and connection times to cater for unforeseen events. The problems of focus will be broader than traditionally considered in the past for railways. @or instance, explicit trade)offs among cost, profit, segment travel times, which are usually only considered earlier or later in the train planning process. These methods will have to be implemented in large scale computer programs and link to railway data bases. Task $ 1 ,ormali#e the e"pert train planner5s rules and plans The model formulation will be based on information from experienced train planners to incorporate various practical rules and strategies to plan train assignments at busy train stations and !unctions to resolve conflicts. @or large train stations, all types of complexity in platforms, different speed trains and conflict among trains will be formali ed in timetabling process. The data required at this stage will be minimum train headways, station dwell times, turnaround times, location and layouts of stations, etc. Task ) 1 Computer generated train plans Train timetable is generated with great effort for allocating trains on platforms and line allocations within railway network. <omputer packages are generally used to assist in train planning a ma!or part of the process, the finding and resolving of conflicts is still done using manual procedures. The algorithms and procedures will be written in <PP code, and tested for a busy rail system, for example sections with %. multi)platform stations, each with multiple subplatforms and with several hundred train movements each day at every station. The programs will be tested to check whether it can handle unlimited numbers of trains, if it is far in excess of the numbers possible at any station. Task + 1 Sensiti!ity analysis and testing of Computer generated train plans To test the reliability of train platforming plans, mainly two measures will be proposed. @irst measure will be based on 9onte <arlo simulations for generating plans for several thousand
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days, with usual random disturbances. The results will be analy ed to compute knock)on delays, means, variance and confidence intervals. Eecondly, reliability or robustness measures will be proposed based on quick heuristics techniques instead of simulation. @or example, the number of potential conflicts for arriving?departing trains. (t is known that such measures are less accurate the simulated based analysis but they are designed to get quick and easy train plans. Eensitivity analyses of the computer generated train will be conducted for all parameters to ascertain the efficiency of proposed algorithms, even in extreme case scenarios.
6. Time Schedule
@igure # shows the time schedule for each task of the proposed research. The ob!ectives of the pro!ect will be accomplished over a period of %7 months.
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*eferences'
3#4 *. 2iggins, +. Ao an, and 5. @erreira, QCptimal scheduling of trains on a single line track,R Transportation Research 0, vol.',, pp. #7=L#;#, #>>;. 3%4 *. 2iggins, and +. Ao an, Q9odeling train delays in urban networks,R Transportation Ecience, vol '%, no. 7, pp. '7;)'.=, #>>-. 3'4 &. 0rannlund, P.C., 5indberg, *. Kou, F.+. Kilsson, QRailway timetabling using 5agrangian relaxation,R Transportation Ecience, vol. '%, no. 7, #>>-, pp. '.-L';>. 374 I. 6hou, and 9., 6hong, QEingle)track train timetabling with guaranteed optimality" branch)and)bound algorithms with enhanced lower bounds,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. 7#, pp. '%,L'7#, %,,=. 3.4 9.F. $orfman, F. 9edanic, QEcheduling trains on a railway network using a discrete event model of railway traffic,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. '-, pp. -#)>-, %,,7. 3;4 0. *denso)$ia , 9.C. /on ale , P./on ale )Torre,QCn)line timetable re)scheduling in regional train services,R Transportation Research, Part 0 vol.'', pp. '-=L'>-,#>>>. 3=4 F.@. <ordeau, P. Toth, and $. Bigo, Q* survey of optimi ation models for train routing and scheduling,R Transportation Ecience, vol. '%, pp. '-,L7,7, #>>-. 3-4 9. <arey, and *. Awiecinski, QEtochastic approximation to the effects of headways in knock)on delays of trains,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol.%-, pp.%.#)%;=, #>>7. 3>4 9. <arey, and *. Awiecinski, QProperties of expected costs and performance measures in stochastic models of scheduled transport,R +uropean Fournal of Cperational Research, vol. -', pp.#-%)#>>. #>>.. 3#,4E. 2allowell, P. 2arker., QPredicting on)time performance in scheduled railroad operations" 9ethodology and application to train scheduling,R Transportation Research *, vol. '%, no. 7, pp. %=>)%>;, #>>-. 3##4 5. Aroon, R. $ekker, /. 9aroti, 9. R. 2elmrich and 9.Bromans, QEtochastic (mprovement of <yclic Railway Timetables,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. 7%, no. ;, pp. ..').=,, %,,-. 3#%4P. Bansteenwegen and $. Ban Cudheusden, Q$ecreasing the passenger waiting time for an intercity rail network,R Transportation Research Part 0, vol. 7#, pp. 7=-)7>%, %,,=. 3#'4Iuesong 6hou and 7uhammad Babar 8han, QElack Time *llocation in Robust $ouble)Track Train TimetablingR, Transportation Research 0oard, -=th *nnual 9eeting, Transportation Research 0oard 8TR0:, Fanuary %,,-. 3#74 7uhammad Babar 8han and Iuesong 6hou, QElack Time *llocation in Robust $ouble)Track Train Timetabling *pplicationsR, (+++ Transaction on (ntelligent Transportation Eystems, vol. ##, no. #, pp. -#)->, %,#,.
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