Is Kalabagh dam really inevitable?

By Muhammad Idris Rajput THE pro-Kalabagh dam lobby believes that if it is not built, following things may happen. (i) Inter-provin ial tensions in water distribution would e!a erbate sin e the amount of water to be distributed will redu e signifi antly be ause of silting of reservoirs. (ii) "ith additional availability of water from Kalabagh dam, it will be possible to implement "ater #pportionment # ord, $%%$ and, (iii) it will be ome almost impossible to meet the future food re&uirements of the growing population. These arguments need to be e!amined in the light of fa ts and figures' (i) #t present, there is inter-provin ial tension in water distribution. The ause is not shortage of water but unfairness in distribution. If the water is distributed fairly, so that ea h o-sharer gets the due share, there will be no tension. (resently, the distribution is done under the Indus )iver *ystem #uthority (Irsa) on the basis of a three-tier formula' (a) If water availability is less than average system uses for the period $%++-,+, in proportion to system uses from $%++-,-. (b) If availability is between average system uses from $%++-,- i.e. $./.0 million a re feet (1#2) and a ord allo ation ($$+.3/ 1#2) in proportion to system uses up to system uses ($./.0 maf) and more, than system-uses in proportion to the a ord allo ations. ( ) If availability is greater than a ord allo ation, in proportion to a ord allo ations up to a ord allo ation and in following ratio beyond a ord allo ation'*indh' 3+ per ent4 (un5ab' 3+ per ent4 6"2(' $0 per ent and 7alo histan' $- per ent.

It may be noted that average system uses from $%++-,- are not part of the a ord and there is no mention of the distribution formula. The a ord says that the distribution is to be made in proportion to $. daily allo ation forming part of a ord. #nother ause of tension is that 6"2( and 7alo histan are given their full share, even when the supplies are short. #68 #bbasi, hairman of the te hni al ommittee on the "ater )esour es in his report submitted in #ugust -../, has mentioned that silting in live storage apa ity is 3.- maf whi h will be off-set by raising 1angla i.e. -.% maf. In order to e!tend the life of storage reservoirs, he re ommended effi ient sediment slui ing of reservoirs should be done. #ssuming that additional availability of water would redu e tension, it is not Kalabagh dam spe ifi . #dditional availability an be obtained if we build 7asha 9am instead. In the first two stages of the distribution formula, distribution is not totally as per a ord, but on the basis of system-uses from $%++-,-. The system uses sin e $%%$ when the a ord was signed has never tou hed $$+.3 maf figures. #n in rease of :.$ maf in availability due to onstru tion of Kalabagh dam will in rease the distribution ;itty but still it will be mostly less than a ord allo ation of $$+.3/ maf. Thus as per present pro edure, distribution will still be unfair and tension will not be redu ed. #bbasi in his report also &uestioned the availability of :.$ maf water on sustained basis, if Kalabagh dam with :.$ maf apa ity was to be built. # ording to him, in view of variable flows in rivers, it may not be filled for a number of onse utive years. 7ased on post-Tarbela re ord, he al ulated that Kalabagh dam if onstru ted will not be filled in $, years out of -,. This will provide about two maf of water per year. Thus additional availability for distribution from Kalabagh dam will be only two maf per year, whereas the present shortfall in a ord allo ation and uses is $- maf. Thus Kalabagh dam, even if onstru ted, annot provide "ater # ord allo ations. The population whi h now stands at about $/. million was :/.3 million in $%+- ensus with an annual in rease of 3.- per ent. It rose to ,3., million in $%,$ and to $3..: million in $%%,. The per entage in rease from $%,$ to $%%, was -.:0. There was a drop in in rease to -.- per ent immediately before $%%,. 7ased on this trend of drop, it is anti ipated that it will be $:, million in -.$. at two per ent annual in rease and --$ million by -.-/ with an annual in rease of $.,$ per ent.

# ording to an study arried out by the federal ministry by water and power in -..3, the pro5e ted food re&uirement in year -.-/ has been estimated on the basis of the abovementioned population growth and re&uisite alori needs' "heat' 30 million tons4 )i e' , million tons4 1ai<e' -.$+ million tons4 (ulses' $./ million tons4 =ther grains' ..,0 million tons4 *ugar' :.$% million tons4 Edible oils' 3.. million tons4 >otton' -. million bales. The total re&uirement of water at farm gate for above is $-, 1#2. The present availability being $.. maf, the additional re&uirement for agri ulture will be -, 1#2. There will be an additional re&uirement of :.0 1#2 for water supply, sanitation and environment against present uses of /., 1#2 and -., maf for industrial uses against the present uses of -.- maf. Thus against present uses of $., maf, water re&uirement at farm gate wor;s out to $0/ maf. *our es' The water availability is from three sour es, vi< river flows, rain fall and underground water. )iver flows' (a;istan used to re eive water from three western rivers vi< Indus, ?ehlum and >henab and three eastern rivers vi< 7ias, )avi and *utle5. # ording to Indus 7asin Treaty $%:., three eastern rivers have been given out to India and three western rivers to (a;istan with some rights to India for power generation and irrigation, et . # ording to (a;istan 6ational "ater *e tor *trategy (-..-), the annual average flows in three ma5or rivers basins are as under' Indus 7asin' $3, to $0/ maf4 1a;ran >ostal 7asin' 3..4 Kharan >losed 9esert 7asin' ..,4

Total' $0$,, to $0,., maf )ainfall' The average annual rainfall in (a;istan is $$.0 in hes. If it falls in the at hment areas of rivers, it is refle ted in river flow. If it falls on hills outside at hments, it auses torrential flows through hills. The development potential of hill torrents is $+ maf. =ut of this five million a re feet has already been developed through /.. delay a tion dams, dispersion stru tures, retaining walls et . 8roundwater' The total ground water potential is estimated to be /: maf. =ut of this 0maf is being used annually through more than +..,... tube wells installed by farmers and about /... publi se tor tube-wells. 7ased on the above water availability, the ministry of water has al ulated water resour es potential as under' *urfa e water at 2arm gate +/.3 maf )ainfall harvesting ,.. maf 8round water //.+ maf Total' $3%.. maf If re&uirement and potential are 5u!taposed following position emerges'(2igures in 1af) Item (otential )e&uirement *urfa e "ater at farm gate $--... $-,... 1uni ipal water supply, sanitation environment $-.-. $-.-. Industry 0.,. 0.,. Total $3%... $0/... Thus re&uirement for -.-/ is more than the potential availability. Even if we develop the total potential, we annot meet the re&uirement unless we either ontrol population or adopt other measures, su h as supply effi ien y in rease onservation, and produ tion enhan ement strategies. #gainst the total additional re&uirement of 3+ maf, Kalabagh dam will provide only two maf annually on sustained basis i.e. about five per ent. Thus Kalabagh dam annot provide food se urity to (a;istan and we will have to e!plore other means su h as new supply options, ontrol lea;age in supply system, ma;e effi ient use of water and other

rop yield enhan ement strategies. Kalabagh ontroversy has rea hed su h a pit h that if it is onstru ted, provin ial harmony is li;ely to suffer. #s su h we should e!plore other options of water supplies, onservation, effi ien y in rease and rop yield enhan ement strategies.