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Background Brief Cambodia: Hun Sen Regime Commences Crackdown Carlyle A. Thayer January 6, 2014

[client name deleted] We seek your assessment of the recent crackdowns on protests in Cambodia. We request your views on the following questions: Q1. Why is Hun Sen cracking down so forcefully on the garment workers and opposition protests now? ANSWER: Hun Sen has cracked down now because of the confluence of the political protests led by the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) with the strikes led by garment workers. This is a potent urban threat. Both protests and strikes were disruptive of public order and security. No doubt there was an argument within the Hun Sen regime that its relative restraint might be read as a sign of weakness especially as the protests escalated. These factors account for the decision to clear Freedom Park. The garment workers posed a threat to one of Cambodias biggest export earners and some workers turned to violence by throwing rocks, firing missiles from sling shots and hurling Molotov cocktails. Q2. How much of a threat do these protests pose to Hun Sen? Can he survive them? ANSWER: If the two streams of protest had been allowed to merge political opponents and striking workers they would have presented a threat of enormous magnitude to the Hun Sen regime. Their sheer numbers could easily have overwhelmed the police. Also, the workers have shown a proclivity to stand up to regime intimidation even to the extent of using violence. The threat to the regime would have been having to fight pitched battles to gain control of key intersections or other strategic locations. The longer the demonstrations and strikes continue the more the average Cambodian will be emboldened to challenge even confront - the regime. The threat facing the Hun Sen regime is how to manage two conflicting objectives upholding the rule of law and maintaining public security on the one hand, and showing restraint and hoping to appease the protesters on the other. If the two movements merge (political opposition and garment workers) and continue to display militancy the Hun Sen regime will be pushed into a corner. It can either resort to brute force to crush opposition or the Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP) can jettison Hun Sen in the hopes of clinging to power.

2 Q3. Where do the crackdowns leave the opposition? What options do they have left to try to win concessions from Hun Sen? ANSWER: The opposition has repeatedly called for non-violent protests There is a risk that the CNRP leadership could be by-passed by more militant forces and lose control. The Hun Sen regime is already using legal writs to corner Sam Rainsy and other CNRP leaders on charges of inciting social unrest. They may be forced to take sanctuary in a foreign embassy or flee abroad. If violence escalates on both sides this may create an opening for the government to meet with the opposition to broker a face saving deal to prevent the situation deteriorating further. Q4. Why doesnt the government just award a higher wage to the garment w orkers? Is there a risk the country will no longer be competitive and top brands will shift their production elsewhere? ANSWER: The Ministry of Labor did approve a very modest pay rise, and then upped it after further protests by the unions. Finally the Ministry of Labor came up with a schedule of increases to the minimum wage so that it would reach $160 by 2018. The garment workers were demanding an immediate hike to $160. The CNRP opportunistically supported a rise to $160. The garment manufacturers owners association has put pressure on the Hun Sen government to limit wage increases and to end the strikes. Both a wage hike and further strikes threaten the global competitiveness of Cambodias garment industry. It is too soon to make a judgment about whether Cambodias current problems with garment workers will result in owners and/or buyers shifting elsewhere. They will probably hedge their bets and wait and see what is likely to transpire. Prolonged labour unrest and instability in Phnom Penh could drive some manufacturers away. The real threat to the Hun Sen regime comes from the reaction by parliamentarians, congressmen, U.S. labour unions and the European Commission to events in Cambodia. If the present situation worsens they are likely to recommend sanctions of some sort on Cambodia. This could impact negatively on the garment industry.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Hun Sen Regime Commences Crackdown, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 6, 2014. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.