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If this discrete function is written in continuous form, than this function is called probability density function (Pdf).
f (v )
0 1
3 4
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Mathematically:
1 2 = 0 =
0 2 1
. (1 )
= 1 . (2 )
=
0
Similarly 3 : 3 =
f(v) function is plotted in below for 3 different cases of k . [ c=8 and respectively k = 1, k = 2 and k = 3]
0,12
Probability
When k=1, most of days are lack of wind. When k=3, most of times wind blows in a range
=
0
1 ( )
In case of k=2 is a special case and called as Rayleigh distribution. This case is the most realistic case
So, if k=2, we get the below function (Rayleigh Function); 2 ()2 = 2 Rayleigh probability distribution Function
=
0
So the average wind speed, " " grows. Mathematical relationship between "" andc ;
=
0
0,22 0,15
c 4 v 3.5 m / s
c 6 v 5.3 m / s
0,10
c 8 v 7.1 m / s
= 1,128
0
v Wind Speed (m/s)
24
EXAMPLE: Average wind speed is measured as 6 m/s at 1 10 m height. Friction constant of region is = and 7 standard air density is = 1,225 kg/m3 . Estimate the wind power at 50 m in W/m2 , using Rayleigh distribution.
= =
0
Herein F(v) function is called as Cumulative distribution function. A cumulative distribution function has feature which are stated in below : F(V): probability of wind speed (v) being smaller than/equal to V F(0)=0 probability of wind speed (v) being smaller than 0 m/s F()=1 probability of wind speed (v) being smaller than When Weibull function is applied to cumulative distribution function ; 1 = This will be obtained. = = 1
2 4
F (v )
f (v )
0.5
It can be understood from cumulative distribution function being 5 probability is 0,5 . In other words, v is smaller than/equal to 5 m/s for half of time, in the other half, it is higher than 5 m/s. In that case, the cross-hatched area which is under the curve in Rayleigh pdf, is half of total area. The average wind speed is : =
2
> = 1 = 1 () > = 1 1
6 2
= 5,32 [/]
= 1000 8760
14
v
f (v )
f (v )
v v 2 v
v v 2 v v v 2
v v 2
2 ( + 2) =
+ 2 2
()
b) Compute the total efficiency of this turbine for wind speed which is given . c) Calculate the producing energy per m2 (kwh/m2year)
0
0 0 0
7
8 9 10
248
385 535 670
14
15 16 17
964
989 998 1000
21
22 23 24
917
889 863 840
4
5 6
33
86 150
11
12 13
780
864 924
18
19 20
987
968 944
25
26
822
0
This turbine is located in a region which fits Rayleigh statistics and has an average wind speed as 7 m/s.
CF increases linearly in the range of 4 m/s and 10 m/s for all wind turbines. C = + (linear increasing mathematically)
Herein ; PN =Nominal Power, CF = Capacity Factor If change in CF values is plotted as a fucntion of average wind speed for the example which is given; 0.7
0.6
C = 0,087 0,278
0.5
CF
0.3
CF
0.1
0.1
6 vort (m/s)
10
0
12 14 16
10
v m / s
Here, the average annual amount of energy produced for Rayleigh wind :
C = 0,087
However, this gives realistic results for CF values which are between 0,2 and 0,5. That means it is so useful . Because in that case all we need to know just turbines rated power and rotor diameter.