Hydrogeological risks-selection of adaptation strategies based on assessment of incoming climatic changes

Guido Rianna, ISC-CAPUA CMCC in collaboration with Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile SUN Seconda Universit di Napoli

Iberotel Apulia CMCC Annual Meeting

Ugento, 11-13 June 2012

How do rainfall-induced landlides occurr?

pore water pressure safety factor soil cohesion slope angle friction angle soil unit weight
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How do rainfall-induced landlides occurr?

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How do rainfall-induced landlides occurr?

pore water pressure safety factor soil cohesion slope angle friction angle soil unit weight
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How do rainfall-induced landlides occurr?

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HOW WILL THE ONGOING CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE THE LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY IN MEDITERRANEAN AREA (AND IN THE SPECIAL WAY IN ITALY)??

Climate change in Mediterranean area

decreasing yearly cumulated rainfall values:
2001-2020 summer fall spring winter 2081-2100 -7% -28% -3% -15% -2% -14% -2% -8%

Giorgi e Lionello (2008)

increasing surface warming:

summer winter 2001-2020 +0.7C +0.7C 2081-2100 +4.6C +3.1C

intensified hydrological cycle due to greater atmospheric water holding capacity: increasing variability: heavier rainfall events separated by longer dry periods

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Landslides with a shorter antecedent period, or those exibit a strong response to relatively short term rainfall events, could be more vulnerable to the predicted increase variability of winter rainfall and so could experience a shorter return period for slope movements.

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However, slope instability caused by longer periods of antecedent rainfall may occurr less often in response to drier summers with increased evapotranspiration

Dixon&Brook(2007

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Previous works:
case study Boisivre (SE France)
effective precipitation -> wet season rainfalls Buma&Dehn (1998;1999; 2000) the Roughs (SE England) effective precipitation-> 90-120 days Collison et al. (2000) GCM (HADCM2GG) emission scenario IPCCIS92a MamTor(England) effective precipitation-> 180 days Dixon&Brook(2006)

GCM (ECHAM4-OPYC3; HADCM2GG; climatological HADCM2GS) model emission scenario IPCCIS92a Direct GCM interpolation; multiple regression; analog-downscaling

GCM (HADCM3)+ nested models until 50km resolution

weather generator

downscaling approach

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empirical rainfall thresholds; bucket models; slope model (hydrological balance+ infinite slope impact model approach)

1D hydrological model +GIS slope stability analysis

rainfall thresholds

Previous works:
case study Boisivre (SE France)
effective precipitation -> wet season rainfalls Buma&Dehn (1998;1999; 2000) the Roughs (SE England) effective precipitation-> 90-120 days Collison et al. (2000) GCM (HADCM2GG) emission scenario IPCCIS92a MamTor(England) effective precipitation-> 180 days Dixon&Brook(2006)

GCM (ECHAM4-OPYC3; HADCM2GG; climatological HADCM2GS) model emission scenario IPCCIS92a Direct GCM interpolation; multiple regression; analog-downscaling

GCM (HADCM3)+ nested models until 50km resolution

weather generator

downscaling approach

1 4

empirical rainfall thresholds; bucket models; slope model (hydrological balance+ infinite slope impact model approach)

1D hydrological model +GIS slope stability analysis

rainfall thresholds

Previous works:
case study Boisivre (SE France)
effective precipitation -> wet season rainfalls Buma&Dehn (1998;1999; 2000) the Roughs (SE England) effective precipitation-> 90-120 days Collison et al. (2000) GCM (HADCM2GG) emission scenario IPCCIS92a MamTor(England) effective precipitation-> 180 days Dixon&Brook(2006)

GCM (ECHAM4-OPYC3; HADCM2GG; climatological HADCM2GS) model emission scenario IPCCIS92a Direct GCM interpolation; multiple regression; analog-downscaling

GCM (HADCM3)+ nested models until 50km resolution

weather generator

downscaling approach

1 5

empirical rainfall thresholds; bucket models; slope model (hydrological balance+ infinite slope impact model approach)

1D hydrological model +GIS slope stability analysis

rainfall thresholds

Previous works:
case study Boisivre (SE France)
effective precipitation -> wet season rainfalls Buma&Dehn (1998;1999; 2000) the Roughs (SE England) effective precipitation-> 90-120 days Collison et al. (2000) GCM (HADCM2GG) emission scenario IPCCIS92a MamTor(England) effective precipitation-> 180 days Dixon&Brook(2006)

GCM (ECHAM4-OPYC3; HADCM2GG; climatological HADCM2GS) model emission scenario IPCCIS92a Direct GCM interpolation; multiple regression; analog-downscaling

GCM (HADCM3)+ nested models until 50km resolution

weather generator

downscaling approach

1 6

empirical rainfall thresholds; bucket models; slope model (hydrological balance+ infinite slope impact model approach)

1D hydrological model +GIS slope stability analysis

rainfall thresholds

Previous works:
case study Boisivre (SE France)
effective precipitation -> wet season rainfalls Buma&Dehn (1998;1999; 2000) the Roughs (SE England) effective precipitation-> 90-120 days Collison et al. (2000) GCM (HADCM2GG) emission scenario IPCCIS92a MamTor(England) effective precipitation-> 180 days Dixon&Brook(2006)

GCM (ECHAM4-OPYC3; HADCM2GG; climatological HADCM2GS) model emission scenario IPCCIS92a Direct GCM interpolation; multiple regression; analog-downscaling

GCM (HADCM3)+ nested models until 50km resolution

weather generator

downscaling approach

1 7

empirical rainfall thresholds; bucket models; slope model (hydrological balance+ infinite slope impact model approach)

1D hydrological model +GIS slope stability analysis

rainfall thresholds

First attempts:
case study
Basento valley (Basilicata Region, South Italy) effective precipitation -> wet season rainfalls Comegna et al. [2012] ( paper accepted for pubblication by LANDSLIDES)

climatological model

COSMO-CLM 4.8 forced by CMCC-MED; spatial resolution 8 km; IPCC scenario A1B; considered time 1965-2100

downscaling approach

quantile based bias correction approach (Wood et al., 2004)

hydrological : Vadose solving numerically the simoultaneous equations regulating thermal and hydraulic soil behaviour
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impact model

mechanical: relationship between pore water pressure and landslide movements

Main results: expected (water pressure) landslide velocities

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Main results: expected (water pressure) landslide velocities

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First studies:
case study
Cervinara (Campania Region, south Italy) effective precipitation (coupled effect of a trigger precipitation over a short interval [24ore] + antecedent precipitations over a long time span [90d] Damiano&Mercogliano [2011] (II World Landslides Forum ) COSMO-CLM 4.8 forced by CMCC-MED; spatial resolution 8 km; IPCC scenario A1B; considered time 1965-2100 1) increase in storm intensities and number of dry days; no change in yearly rainfall 2) increase in storm intensities during winter 3) heavy rainfall event added at the end of wet season

climatological model

potential scenarios based on expected changes in annual rainfall regime

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impact model

IMOD 3D- GIS model regional scale home-made code hydrological : solving numerically Richardsequation for estimating water pressure in isothermal conditions mechanical:infinite slope approach

Cervinara

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Main results: comparison between factors of stability (FS)

SCENARIO 1: increase in storm intensities and number of dry days; no change in yearly rainfall

SCENARIO 2: increase in storm intensities during winter

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SCENARIO 3: heavy rainfall event added at the end of wet season

Future developments:GEMINA wp 6.2.17 Analysis of the hydrogeological

risk related to climate change

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RP0129-Architectures and tools to analyse the impact of climate change on hydrogeological risk on Mediterranean area (cmcc.it->research papers)

Future developments:GEMINA wp 6.2.17 Analysis of the hydrogeological

risk related to climate change
MOS analog method: -the closest historical predictor B (the analog) considering the Euclidean distance between the two raw predictor fields is found, -then, the local precipitation observed, b, correspondent to the analog day B, is used as the downscaled precipitation of the day A (i.e. a=b).

Turco et al. (2011) MOS downscaling for hydrological application in poster session RP0129-Architectures and tools to analyse the impact of climate change on hydrogeological risk on Mediterranean area (cmcc.it->research papers)

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Future developments:GEMINA wp 6.2.17 Analysis of the hydrogeological

risk related to climate change

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RP0129-Architectures and tools to analyse the impact of climate change on hydrogeological risk on Mediterranean area (cmcc.it->research papers)

I-MOD 3D
3D homemade regional scale code developed at the Geotecnical Laboratory of Second University of Naples

It consistes of two modules: - a hydrological model which estimates the slope response to rain infiltration (solving numerically the Richards equation) -a geotechnical module which performs stability analyses adopting the scheme of the infinite slope.
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h [mm]

Fs

150 200
0.48m 0.94m 2.16m
Jul-02 Jul-02 Jul-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Aug-02

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0.60m 1.08m
Aug-02

250

Top soil Pumices (A) Volcanic ashes (B) (C) Pumices altered ashes (D)

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pre-process phase: input of data about topography and soil hydraulic behaviour

Limestone

post-process phase: response maps in terms of soil water pressure and factor of stability

VADOSE
slope scale commercial code (GeoStudio, 2012) It allows to take into account, in a proper way, the soil-atmosphere interaction and water exchanges due to infiltration or evapotranspiration; for this reason, it could represent a notable tool for impact studies in other fields too (agriculture, forestry sciences, drought effects on the soil and vegetation)

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Future developments:GEMINA wp 6.2.17 Analysis of the hydrogeological

risk related to climate change

CASE-HISTORIES
- Orvieto (Umbria,Central Italy) - Fosso San Martino (Abruzzo,Central Italy) - Cervinara (Campania, South Italy) they are selected by virtue of wide availability of data regarding previous landslide activity, soil hydraulic and mechanical behaviour, meteorological observations

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RP0129-Architectures and tools to analyse the impact of climate change on hydrogeological risk on Mediterranean area (cmcc.it->research papers)

Fosso San Martino

Cervinara

Orvieto

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Thanks