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O N T H L Y

Political Report
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O mp I L a T I O N

Volume 10, Issue 1 January 2014

The Obama Presidency Thus Far

Americans greeted Barack Obama with high hopes early in his presidency, but his recent ratings reached low points in some December polls. The proportion that disapproves strongly of the way he is handling his job has doubled since Pew rst asked the question in early 2009. His early December approval rating among whites was 33 percent in the Pew poll. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll taken in mid-December, it was 30 percent. The ABC/Post pollsters reported that the Presidents ve-year average (51 percent) is the lowest on record in ABC/Post and Gallup polls before them back to Harry S Truman, although similar to the ve-year average of Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon (both 53 percent).
Q: Do you . . . ?
70

64%
60

Approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president 49% 45%

50

40

30

Disapprove
20

17%

Aug-13

Aug-12

Aug-10

Aug-09

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-12

April 2009 Approve very strongly Approve not so strongly 13 Disapprove not so strongly 8 Disapprove strongly 18

45%

December 2013 26% 16 9 39

Approval among key subgroups, December 2013 Whites 33% Blacks Hispanics 59
Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

89

Democrats Republicans Independents

Dec-13

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-12

Feb-13

Aug-11

Dec-11

Feb-11

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-12

Jun-13

Oct-12

Oct-09

Apr-10

Apr-09

Apr-12

Oct-10

Apr-13

Oct-13

Jun-11

Apr-11

Oct-11

10

81% 13 37

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Q: Since the start of 2009 when Barack Obama became president, in general, would you say . . . ? His presidency has been a success A failure
Source: Pew Research Center/USA Today, December 2013.

46% 48

Q: Do you think that in general . . . ? The Obama administration has been competent in running the government Dont think so
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, January 2014.

43% 55

Q: Now thinking about events of the past couple months, do you feel that . . . ? President Obama is facing a short-term setback from which things are likely to get better for him He is facing a longer-term setback from which things are unlikely to get better for him He is not facing a setback at this time
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, December 2013.

33%

54 10

Q: What are your expectations for Barack Obamas presidency? Do you think he will be . . . ? One of the countrys greatest presidents A great president An average president A below average president One of the countrys worst presidents 6% 16 33 16 28

Note: Sample is registered voters. In their December 2008 poll, 19 percent said he would be one of the greatest presidents and 43 percent a good president. Source: Fox News, December 2013.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Barack Obama is a new kind of politician A typical politician 44% 50

Note: Sample is registered voters. In September 2009, 54 percent said he was a new kind and 39 percent a typical politician. Source: Fox News, December 2013.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Editor: Jennifer Marsico, Senior Research Associate; Intern: Madeline Glista.

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Leadership Qualities
In this section of Political Report, we review initial impressions of President Obamas leadership and communication skills and compare them to views a year ago and in December. In Pews latest poll, half now say he is a strong leader, but almost as many, 48 percent, disagree. Forty-three percent say he is able to get things done, down from 57 percent a year ago. Three-quarters still say he stands up for what he believes in. Views on this aspect of his presidency have remained stable.
Q: As I read some pairs of opposite phrases, please tell me which one best reects your impression of Barack Obama . . . February 2009 January 2013 December 2013 A strong leader 77% 59 50 Not a strong leader 13% 37 48

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. In a December 2013 Fox News poll of registered voters, 47 percent said he was a strong and decisive leader, while 51 percent said he was not. In a January 2014 Quinnipiac poll of registered voters, 46 percent said he had strong qualities of leadership, while 51 percent said he did not. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

February 2009 January 2013 December 2013

Able to get things done 70% 57 43

Not able to get things done 15% 37 51

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

January 2011 January 2013 December 2013

Stands up for what he believes in 77% 82 76

Does not 16% 14 19 Not a good communicator 92% 6% 21 28

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

A good communicator February 2009 January 2013 December 2013

76 68

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

Personal Qualities
Here again we show the publics initial views about Obamas personal qualities. We compare them to views as he began his second term and to impressions now. Around half still say the president is trustworthy, but his ratings have dropped sharply on this dimension. Fifty-eight percent today say he cares about people like them, compared to 81 percent who gave that response in February 2009.
Q: As I read some pairs of opposite phrases, please tell me which one best reects your impression of Barack Obama . . . February 2009 January 2013 December 2013 Trustworthy 76% 66 52 Not trustworthy 15% 30 45

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. In a December 2013 Fox News poll of registered voters, 45 percent said that he was honest and trustworthy and 49 percent said he was not. In a January 2014 Quinnipiac poll of registered voters, 46 percent said he was honest and trustworthy and 49 percent said he was not. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

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 February 2009 January 2013 December 2013

Someone who cares about people like me 81% 66 58

Someone who does not 14% 31 38

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. In a January 2014 Quinnipiac poll of registered voters, 50 percent said Barack Obama cared about the needs and problems of people like you while 48 percent said he did not. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

Q: Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Obama or not. January 2009 January 2013 December 2013 He understands the problems of people like you 72% 55 52 He does not 24% 43 46

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of December 2013.

Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public gures and groups. Id like you to rate your feelings toward each one . . . Positive feelings about President Obama Neutral Negative January 2009 66% 17% 14% January 2013 52 11 37 December 2013 42 11 46
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, latest that of December 2013.

Most Admired?
In 1946, Gallup began asking people to name the man or woman living anywhere in the world they admired most. That year, Douglas MacArthur topped the list. The sitting president has won the distinction 57 times in the 67 years the question has been asked, including the last 33 in a row. Thirty percent named Barack Obama most admired in 2012, but 16 percent gave him the honor this year.

The Presidents Handling of Issues

The economy has been the dominant issue for Americans during Obamas presidency. There is some evidence in the polls that people believe the economy is recovering, but it is tentative and weak. Sixty percent say they are hearing mostly mixed news about the economy, but a solid majority believes the economy is still in recession. President Obamas marks on handling health care and the decit remain low.

The Economy
Q: Now thinking about how Barack Obama is handling some issues . . . Do you . . . ? February 2009 December 2013 Approve of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy 56% 42 April 2009 December 2013 Approve of the way Barack Obama is handling the federal budget decit 50% 34

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

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Q: Do you think the countrys economic recession is . . .? Recession is over The economy is still in recession
Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 2013.

19% 79

Q: Regardless of whether or not the recession is over, in terms of your personal experience, do you feel . . . ? The economy has begun to recover November 2009 December 2013 44% 59

Note: In December 2013, of those who answered that the economy has begun to recover, 25 percent said the recovery so far has been a strong one but 71 percent said it had been a weak one. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of December 2013.

Q: Now thinking about recent economic news . . . Are you . . . ? January 2009 December 2013 Hearing mostly good news about the economy 2% 7 Mixed news 30% 60 Hearing mostly bad news 67% 31

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

Health Care Policy

Q: Do you . . . ? Approve of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy April 2009 December 2013 40 51%

Note: The December poll was conducted with USA Today. In a mid-December 2013 ABC News/Washington Post poll, 34 percent approved of the way Obama was handling the implementation of the new health care law, and 62 percent disapproved. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

Foreign Policy
Q: Do you . . . ? Approve of the job Barack Obama is doing on foreign policy Approve 39% Disapprove
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, December 2013.

52

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Obama and His Predecessors

Only two of seven post-World War II presidents, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, have had a higher approval rating in their second term than in their rst term. The second terms for both of these presidents coincided with solid economic growth, and each avoided what has been called the second-term curse or declining ratings. The jury remains out, of course, on President Obamas second term, but the drop in his ratings in 2013 in a deeply polarized electorate does not augur well for him. President Obamas past State of the Union addresses have not given him much of a boost in approval. In this regard, he is like his predecessors, according to Gallup: [M]ost presidents have shown an average decrease in approval of one or more points between the last poll conducted before the State of the Union and the rst one conducted afterward.
Harry Truman Dwight Eisenhower Lyndon Johnson Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama First-term average approval rating 56% 70 74 56 50 50 62 49 Second-term average approval rating 36% 60 50 34 55 61 37 ?

Obamas 2013 Approval Ratings from Major Pollsters

Gallup Pew ABC/Post Fox RV Quinnipiac RV January 2013 52% 52% 55% 47% 46%* December 2013 41 45 43 41 38
Note: The Quinnipiac University and Fox News polls are of registered voters. *The Quinnipiac poll was conducted in February 2013.

State of the Union Stats for President Obama

2013 2012 2011 2010 Approval rating before the speech 52% 44 50 48 Approval rating after the speech 50% 46 50 48

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of 2013.

Looking Ahead to the November Elections

Q: If a candidate for Congress supports . . . would you be . . . ? If a candidate for Congress supports President Obama January 2014 Would be more likely to vote for the candidate 28% Less likely 43 No difference 28
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, latest that of January 2014.

If a candidate for Congress supports President George W. Bush March 2006 16% 38 41

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How the Parties Fared During the Obama Presidency

In 2013, in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, more Americans on average identied themselves as independents than as either Democrats or Republicans, the fth year this has happened and the longest such streak in ABC/Post polling since 1981. Gallup recently reported 42 percent of Americans identied as independents in 2013, the highest Gallup has measured since it began conducting interviews by telephone 25 years ago. The dominance of independents in this poll and others indicates dissatisfaction with both major parties. Below we show disapproval of the two major parties during the Obama presidency.
Q: Is your overall opinion of . . . ?
70

60

Unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party 55%

59%

50

48%

40

Unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party

30

32%

May-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Jul-11

May-12

May-09

May-10

May-13

Jul-12

Sep-10

Nov-10

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jul-13

Sep-13

Sep-09

Nov-09

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2013.

Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public gures and groups. Id like you to rate your feelings toward each one as . . . Positive feelings about 42% Barack Obama 36 The Democratic Party 26 The Republican Party 24 The Tea Party movement Negative feelings about 46% 44 51 45

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, December 2013.

Nov-13

Mar-12

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-13

Jan-12

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-13

Jul-09

Jul-10

20

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Looking at specics, the Democratic Party has an edge over the Republicans today when it comes to questions of compassion, compromise, and problem solving. However, nearly four in ten Americans believe that neither party can change how things work in Washington.
Q: Regardless of your other political views, overall which party do you think . . . ? Democratic Party has the better ideas about the right size and role of the federal government Republican Party does
Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 2013.

43% 44

Q: When it comes to . . . which party do you think would do a better job, the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or both about the same? If you think neither would do a good job, please just say so. Would do a better job Showing compassion and concern for people Democratic Party Republican Party 17 Both about the same 16 Neither party 20 Being willing to work with the other party to pass needed legislation Democratic Party Republican Party 19 Both about the same 18 Neither party Having new ideas to solve problems Democratic Party Republican Party Both about the same Neither party Dealing with health care Democratic Party Republican Party Both about the same Neither party 31%

45%

30 29%

21 20 28 36% 30 10 22

Note: In July 2009, the rst time NBC News and the Wall Street Journal asked about this during Barack Obamas presidency, the Democratic Party had a 17 percentage point edge over the GOP on this question, 40 to 23 percent.

Dealing with immigration Democratic Party Republican Party Both about the same Neither party Changing how things work in Washington Democratic Party Republican Party Both about the same Neither party
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, December 2013.

31% 26 16 21 20% 20 18 39

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